SportsRatings: College Football

Heisman Race week 9: Will Jordan Lynch get in the picture?

No major surprise this week in the Heisman world; the big news is probably Sean Mannion and Brandin Cooks of Oregon State not having a breakout weekend against Stanford. Other than that everyone pretty much had a good game.

Marcus Mariota remains on top. His performance against UCLA wasn't his best, with just 1 touchdown pass and only 18 rushing yards. We even gave him half-credit for another fumble (bad snap, but it's the QB's job to cover those). He did continue to improve his completion percentage (it was below 60% just a few weeks ago, now 64%) and he guided his team to victory, and now has 20 touchdown passes and no interceptions.

Johnny Manziel was questionable to play last week but he did and got off to a fast start against Vanderbilt, throwing 4 touchdown passes. He added another interception, though (now 8 for the year) and had just 11 rushing yards. Manziel is on track to be a finalist but those two losses will probably keep him from winning, maybe even if the others screw up.

Last week's best game was recorded by Jordan Lynch of Northern Illinois, who threw four touchdown passes, ran for a fifth, and caught a 6th. Combined with last week's 316 yard rushing performance, why is it that Lynch isn't on everyone's list? Schedule is a big part of it: last week was Central Michigan, this week was Eastern Michigan. Doing well against two directional MAC schools never impresses the voters much, but he finished in 7th place last year so he should at least be there right now. Only six players in the country have over 1,000 rushing yards currently and Lynch, a quarterback, is one of them. We move him up to #3, but as NIU plays UMass next we'll need to see further fireworks to sustain the lofty position.

Coming up strong is Jameis Winston of Florida State, who led a payback win over NC State last week. He didn't have his best game, completing 16 of 26 attempts and throwing a pick, but he had three first-quarter touchdown tosses to establish the tone. Winston's upside is pretty unlimited as FSU has no losses and Winston no bad games; that should favor him over Manziel, and Lynch is getting no respect. Next week vs. Miami is another potential showcase for him. Can he convince voters he's better than Mariota?

Tajh Boyd of Clemson had a decent game; he was accurate and had over 300 yards. He threw just one touchdown pass and threw an interception, and though Clemson bounced back well from last week's debacle, Jordan Lynch pushed past Boyd and having Boyd and Winston in close proximity we had to put Winston on top, so Boyd ends up falling two spots. If he's going to be a finalist he has to have great games, not just good ones, to erase the memory of the 51-14 beatdown.

1. Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon (8-0; beat UCLA 42-14)
   LW:   21-28  75.0%  230yd  1TD 0int   7rsh   18yd 2.6av 0TD 0.5fmb
   TOT: 144-225 64.0% 2281yd 20TD 0int  56rsh  511yd 9.1av 9TD 2.5fmb
2. Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M (6-2; beat Vandy 56-24)
   LW:   25-35  71.4%  305yd  4TD 1int   4rsh   11yd 2.8av 0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 184-252 73.0% 2594yd 22TD 8int  89rsh  497yd 5.6av 6TD 1fmb
3. [up 1] Jordan Lynch, QB N. Illinois (8-0; beat Eastern Mich 59-20)
   LW:   16-20  80.0%  223yd  4TD 0int  18rsh   99yd 5.5av 1TD 0fmb 1recTD
   TOT: 154-245 62.9% 1711yd 18TD 5int 156rsh 1031yd 6.6av 8TD 1fmb 1recTD
4. [up 1] Jameis Winston, QB Florida State (7-0; beat NC State 49-17)
   LW:   16-26  61.5%  292yd  3TD 1int   1rsh  -11yd -11av 0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 128-183 69.9% 2177yd 23TD 4int  44rsh  126yd 2.9av 3TD 0fmb
5. [dn 2] Tajh Boyd, QB Clemson (7-1; beat Maryland 40-27)
   LW:   28-41  68.3%  304yd  1TD 1int  13rsh   24yd 1.8av 1TD 0fmb
   TOT: 168-263 63.9% 2243yd 17TD 5int  93rsh  219yd 2.4av 6TD 1fmb
6. Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville (7-1; beat South Florida 34-3)
   LW:   25-29  86.2%  344yd  3TD 0int   5rsh  -25yd  -5av 0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 179-243 73.7% 2557yd 23TD 2int  30rsh   19yd 0.6av 0TD 1fmb
7. Braxton Miller, QB Ohio State (8-0; beat Penn State 63-14)
   LW:   18-24  75.0%  252yd  3TD 0int 11rsh   68yd  6.2av 2TD 0fmb
   TOT:  71-102 69.6% 1083yd 11TD 2int 86rsh  403yd  4.7av 2TD 2fmb
8. [up 1] Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin (5-2; idle)
   LW:  no game
   TOT: 107rsh 1012yd 9.5av 11TD 0fmb; 1rec 5yd 0TD; 0retYd 0TD 0fmb
9. [dn 1] Brandin Cooks, WR Oregon St (6-2; lost to Stanford 20-12)
   LW:   9rec   80yd  1TD 0fmb;  3rsh  18yd 6.0av 0TD 0fmb 74retYd 0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 85rec 1256yd 13TD 0fmb; 21rsh 134yd 6.4av 2TD 0fmb 71retYd 0TD 1fmb
10. [up 1] Sean Mannion, QB Oregon St (6-2; lost to Stanford 20-12)
    LW:   41-57  71.9%  271yd  1TD 0int  9rsh  -60yd -6.7av 0TD 0fmb
    TOT: 270-391 69.1% 3263yd 30TD 3int 25rsh -152yd -5.9av 0TD 2fmb
11. [dn 1] Aaron Murray, QB Georgia (4-3; idle)
    LW:  no game
    TOT: 139-224 62.1% 1938yd 17TD 6int 32rsh   88yd 2.8av 5TD 2fmb
12. [new]  Bryce Petty, QB Baylor (7-0; beat Kansas 59-14)
    LW:   20-32  62.5%  430yd  3TD 0int  4rsh   22yd 5.5av 0TD 0fmb
    TOT: 122-176 69.3% 2453yd 18TD 1int 28rsh   73yd 2.6av 6TD 2fmb
13. [dn 1] Jadeveon Clowney, DE South Carolina (6-2; beat Missouri 27-24ot)
    LW:   5 tackles 0 sacks + 1.0 tfl 1 pbu 0 int 0 ffmb 0 blocked kicks
    TOT: 24 tackles 2 sacks + 4.5 tfl 1 pbu 0 int 1 ffmb 0 blocked kicks
14. [dn 1] Marqise Lee, WR USC (4-3; beat Utah 19-3)
    LW:  did not play; injury
    TOT: 32rec  403yd  1TD 0fmb;  5rsh   1yd 0.2av 0TD 0fmb 145retYd 0TD 1fmb

Teddy Bridgewater and Braxton Miller both had nearly perfect games. Bridgewater threw just 4 incompletions with 344 yards and three touchdowns; Miller accounted for 5 total touchdowns against Penn State. Both hold at #6 and #7 respectively. Bridgewater is in the same boat as Boyd, a loss staining an otherwise exemplary record. Louisville didn't get blown out but their schedule doesn't allow for a mistake. Miller's Ohio State team is undefeated and chasing after a BCS championship but Miller missed so many games that his stats just don't add up to enough. Still, he's in the hunt for a finalist position if the Buckeyes remain unbeaten, but he's competing with guys like Boyd and Bridgewater who have more than double his passing stats.

This week's big Heisman game was Stanford vs. Oregon State as the latter has two minor candidates who were trying to become major candidates. The Beavers lost the game but both players had their moments. Sean Mannion was sacked 8 times by the Cardinal but still threw no interceptions and completed 72% of his attempts. Brandin Cooks had a rough day too but came on at the end, with a long punt return and two consecutive catches putting Oregon State in the red zone late with a chance to tie. Mannion threw 4 straight incompletions to end the game, but he did well under the circumstances and he busts past 3,000 yards for the season, notching his 30th TD pass. He moves up a spot to #10 despite the loss. Cooks was held in check all day until the end and drops one spot to #9, leaving Melvin Gordon of Wisconsin the highest-ranked non-quarterback at #8. Gordon was idle as was Aaron Murray of Georgia who drops to #11.

Bryce Petty of Baylor is our new entrant. Petty is putting up systematically good numbers, and his quarterback rating, either by old or new metrics, is up there with the best. The schedule has been soft so far but if Baylor wins out Petty will deserve to be a major candidate. He debuts ahead of the usual bottom two in our list, the erstwhile favorites Jadeveon Clowney and Marqise Lee, with one week left to add new players before we start making cuts.

2013 Heisman Race, week 8: Mariota, Winston shine as Manziel, Boyd slide

A lot happened this past week in college football, and with so many top teams losing it's only natural that the Heisman race would be shaken up a bit, too.

The big game was Clemson vs. Florida State; Tajh Boyd was set to take over our top spot but the Tigers were rocked 51-14 by the Seminoles. Boyd completed fewer than 50% of his attempts and had two interceptions and a fumble, and he falls a spot to #3 instead of taking the lead. His chances of winning took a huge hit; in the end most of the candidates will have a loss, but few will be as decisive as his. It also means Clemson is very unlikely to get an extra game in the ACC championship.

Jameis Winston, on the other hand, got a huge boost, up three spots to #5. The freshman was very productive with 444 yards and 4 total TDs with just one interception; he now has a 23:3 TD:TO ratio and his team is undefeated and #2 in the first BCS standings. That may be his one drawback—is he the key to the team's success? Or is it staunch defense and the rest of his talented teammates? There's no doubt Winston has huge upside and winning the head-to-head with Boyd will keep moving him up as long as he doesn't stumble. We'll move him higher as he continues to prove himself and avoid the bad loss that FSU has had lately against overmatched opponents, like N.C. State next week.

So due to Boyd's loss Johnny Manziel was in position to hold onto the top spot again, and with seconds left he nearly saved the day again for the Aggies, but he couldn't do it, getting sacked on fourth down in the red zone and losing to Auburn 45-41. Manziel was also intercepted twice and injured during the game. He falls to 2nd place, and now has two losses on the year. Note that he won the trophy last year with two losses but they occurred before he was a serious candidate so those were basically ignored (that's Heisman logic for you) but this year they're significant, as Alabama would have to lose 3 games for A&M to make the SEC title game to give him an extra game on the final week.

Instead of Boyd or Manziel it's Marcus Mariota of Oregon who takes over our top spot, moving up from #3. We'd resisted moving him up too fast since Oregon's powerful team and offensive design almost guarantees the Duck starter a great year. Every quarterback who plays for Oregon has great success and then look at what happened to Dennis Dixon (signed recently as an NFL backup, has played 4 games in his career), Jeremiah Masoli (plays in the CFL), and Darron Thomas (Arena football). Mariota is probably the best of the bunch (at least since Dixon) but would Oregon have fared any worse with another QB at the helm? Mariota's stats are hard to ignore, though, as he now has 19 TD passes and 9 rushing TDs—28 total—and has not been intercepted yet. He loses his "0" in turnovers however, with 2 fumbles against Washington State. But 28:2 is pretty damn good and we seem to be the only ones who seem to care about and keep track of fumbles lost by a candidate. If Oregon keeps winning he'll be very hard to pass by anyone who has a loss.

While all this was going on, Jordan Lynch of Northern Illinois quietly had 316 rushing yards. A few weeks ago his running back stole the limelight with a big game, but Lynch now holds the NCAA record for rushing yards by a quarterback. No one else is even following him but we had him #5 and he moves up to #4 this week. Next week he'll pass 1,500 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing and as his stats go up, he'll start to get attention like last year. The problem is still the Huskies' easy schedule which makes his accomplishments a bit less impressive, but he could be a finalist if he keeps putting up Barry Sanders numbers.

SportsRatings Heisman Rankings, week 8:

1. [up 2] Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon (7-0; beat Washington State 62-34)
   LW:   23-32  71.9%  327yd  2TD 0int   8rsh  67yd 8.4av 1TD 2fmb
   TOT: 123-197 62.4% 2051yd 19TD 0int  49rsh 493yd  10av 9TD 2fmb
2. [dn 1] Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M (5-2; lost to Auburn 45-41)
   LW:   28-38  73.7%  454yd  4TD 2int  18rsh  48yd 2.7av 1TD
   TOT: 159-217 73.7% 2289yd 18TD 7int  85rsh 486yd 5.7av 6TD 1fmb 
3. [dn 1] Tajh Boyd, QB Clemson (6-1; lost to FSU 51-14)
   LW:   17-37  45.9%  156yd  1TD 2int  14rsh   8yd 0.6av 0TD 1fmb
   TOT: 140-222 63.1% 1939yd 16TD 4int  80rsh 195yd 2.4av 5TD 1fmb
4. [up 1] Jordan Lynch, QB N. Illinois (7-0; beat Central Michigan 38-17)
   LW:   20-30  66.7%  155yd  1TD 1int  32rsh 316yd 9.9av 3TD 0fmb
   TOT: 188-225 61.3% 1488yd 14TD 5int 138rsh 932yd 6.8av 7TD 1fmb
5. [up 3] Jameis Winston, QB Florida State (6-0; beat Clemson 51-14)
   LW:   22-34  64.7%  444yd  3TD 1int  7rsh   2yd 0.3av 1TD 0fmb
   TOT: 112-157 71.3% 1885yd 20TD 3int 43rsh 137yd 3.2av 3TD 0fmb
6. [dn 2] Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville (6-1; lost to UCF 28-25)
   LW:   29-38  76.3%  341yd  2TD 0int   3rsh  -5yd  -2av 0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 154-214 72.0% 2213yd 20TD 2int  25rsh  44yd 1.8av 0TD 1fmb
7. Braxton Miller, QB Ohio State (7-0; beat Iowa 34-24)
   LW:   22-27  81.5%  222yd  2TD 0int 18rsh 102yd 5.7av 0TD 0fmb
   TOT:  71-102 69.6%  831yd  8TD 2int 75rsh 335yd 4.5av 0TD 2fmb
8. [up 2] Brandin Cooks, WR Oregon St (6-1; beat Cal 49-17)
   LW:  13rec  232yd  1TD 0fmb;  2rsh  10yd 5.0av 1TD 0fmb; -1retYd 0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 76rec 1176yd 12TD 0fmb; 18rsh 116yd 6.4av 2TD 0fmb; -3retYd 0TD 1fmb
9. Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin (5-2; beat Illinois 56-32)
   LW:   17rsh  143yd 8.4av  3TD 0fmb; 0rec 0yd 0TD; 0retYd 0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 107rsh 1012yd 9.5av 11TD 0fmb; 1rec 5yd 0TD; 0retYd 0TD 0fmb
10. [dn 4] Aaron Murray, QB Georgia (4-3; lost to Vanderbilt 31-27)
    LW:   16-28  57.1%  114yd  0TD 1int  4rsh  10yd 2.5av 2TD 0fmb
    TOT: 139-224 62.1% 1938yd 17TD 6int 32rsh  88yd 2.8av 5TD 2fmb 
11. [new] Sean Mannion, QB Oregon St (6-1; beat Cal 49-17)
    LW:   35-45  77.8%  481yd  4TD 0int  2rsh -19yd -10av 0TD 0fmb 
    TOT: 229-334 68.6% 2992yd 29TD 3int 16rsh -92yd  -6av 0TD 2fmb 
12. Jadeveon Clowney, DE South Carolina (5-2; lost to Tennessee 23-21)
    LW:   5 tackles 0 sacks + 2.5 tfl 0 pbu 0 int 0 ffmb 0 blocked kicks
    TOT: 19 tackles 2 sacks + 3.5 tfl 0 pbu 0 int 1 ffmb 0 blocked kicks
13. [dn 2] Marqise Lee, WR USC (4-3; lost to Notre Dame 14-10)
    LW:   2rec   18yd  0TD 0fmb;  0rsh  0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb;  0retYd 0TD 0fmb
    TOT: 32rec  403yd  1TD 0fmb;  5rsh  1yd 0.2av 0TD 0fmb; 145retYd 0TD 1fmb

Teddy Bridgewater, last week's #4, fell two spots after his Louisville team lost to Central Florida. Bridgewater didn't play poorly and even led them on a late drive to take the lead, but winning is everything when it comes to the Heisman, especially for a candidate with a relatively easy schedule. Bridgewater could play himself back into the New York group but getting back into real contention will take a lot of the front-runners collapsing.

Braxon Miller had a good game against Iowa, running for over 100 yards and completing 81% in a comeback win, but as we said next week he needs 350 yards a game to get back into it after missing so much time. The stats just aren't there; he holds at #7.

Leaping up 2 spots to #8 is Brandin Cooks of Oregon State, the nation's leading receiver by far at 168 yards per game. He had 232 yards and two touchdowns (one on a running play), accounting for nearly half the team's receiving yards against Washington State. In our view he's the main cog in the Beaver offense.

Melvin Gordon of Wisconsin also had a great game and remains the top running back at #9. Gordon rushed for 143 yards against Illinois with three touchdowns, surpassing 1,000 yards for the season with either 5 or 6 games to go. Getting that sixth game will be critical for Gordon's chance to get to New York, and if he wants to be a real contender he needs games like this or better the rest of the way.

With all the bad games suffered by the contenders none compares to Aaron Murray's collapse vs. Vanderbilt. Just a few weeks ago some were putting him among the very top contenders, but he never made our top 5. Two losses in a row have pretty much put him on ice and he falls 4 spots to #10. He had just 114 passing yards, 0 TDs, and an interception in the loss to Vanderbilt; though he ran for 2 scores, a better performance in the 31-27 loss could have made it a win for sure, and now the Bulldogs are 4-3 with no hope of making the SEC title game.

This week we bring in a second Oregon State player, unusual for a team with a loss but Sean Mannion's passing numbers can't be ignored. He's almost at 3,000 yards for the season already with 29 TDs. He has three picks and two fumbles so his 29:5 ratio is not as great as some are touting, but again we are the only ones who track fumbles so most people will see 29:3. He is rather one-dimensional in this age where quarterbacks are doubling as running backs, and Oregon State's offense is also one-dimensional; his candidacy is similar to Colt Brennan's at Hawaii a few years back, where Brennan put up huge numbers in a passing-only offense against an easy schedule. Mannion hasn't been tested by a good defense yet but if he shines next week against Stanford he will pass a big test and may even become our top candidate from his own team.

Jadeveon Clowney finally had a good game for South Carolina, even as his team lost. Clowney recorded 2.5 tackles for loss out of his 5 stops, which would be 60 tackles and 30 tfl for a full season. He holds at #12 and it doesn't look like there's another defensive player who will get into the mix (Vic Beasley of Clemson was a possibility that probably ended with the FSU game; Anthony Barr of UCLA's hopes probably were stopped by Stanford). Also among the once-touted is Marquise Lee who had 18 receiving yards against Notre Dame. He falls two spots to #13 and looks like the first cut.

Speaking of the first cut, we have just two more slots to fill and right now it's looking like they will both be quarterbacks. Bryce Petty of Baylor has a very high passer rating and we'll probably add him either next week or the week after. A.J. McCarron of Alabama has been consistenly good and the top team deserves a candidate. Since other possibilities (Brett Hundley, Zack Mettenberger, Bishop Sankey) fell by the wayside, unless someone else has a huge game to change our mind, Petty and McCarron will probably round out the list of 15 before we start chopping.

2013 Heisman Race, week 7

Week seven is in the books and we have a very solid top three in the Heisman race—it seems likely these could be the top three at the end of the year. The only question is, in what order?

Johnny Manziel retains the top spot he's held all year so far with another remarkable comeback performance against Mississippi. After throwing a pick into the end zone and fumbling, Manziel made several big plays with his feet—including a 4th-and-7 where he took a hit so hard Sederius Bryant was carted away with a concussion—ending in a touchdown dive to tie the game and another drive to set up the winning field goal. He's not undefeated and his stats aren't necessarily the best, but he's had more "Heisman moments" than anyone bar none.

Tajh Boyd, however, set himself up to take the top spot away next week if Clemson can beat Florida State. Boyd played well enough in the Tigers' look-ahead game against B.C. that if he does well next week in a win, he'll be 7-0 and more important, 2-0 in huge games to Manziel's 0-1. His TD to turnover ratio of 20:2 is pretty stellar, too.

Oregon's Marcus Mariota moves up a spot to #3 after accounting for four more touchdowns in a big win over Washington. Some people are already saying "they should just hand him the Heisman" which is a stupid thing to say at any point other than the last week of the season. If Oregon loses a game then Mariota's candidacy takes a big hit. If they don't, he'll be in great position, guaranteed, and if he can keep the "0" portion of his 25:0 TD:TO ratio, he will have the Heisman handed to him. His completion percentage is a big poor but he helped it last week and he still averages in double figures running the ball. At some point people will notice that Oregon really has "system" quarterbacks but the way Mariota is playing that might not be an issue.

Teddy Bridgewater falls to fourth; he didn't play all that well against Rutgers and it showed in the final score. But as long as Louisville keeps winning Bridgewater will have a ticket to New York (assuming more than 3 players get there). To get back into the top 3 he'll need to pick up the production. Notice that the top three are all dual-threat quarterbacks, so that means Teddy needs passing yards and touchdowns. Or for the other candidates to stumble badly. That always helps.

1. Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M (5-1; beat Ole Miss 41-38)
   LW:   31-39  79.5%  346yd  0TD 1int  19rsh 124yd 6.5av 2TD 1fmb
   TOT: 131-179 73.2% 1835yd 14TD 5int  67rsh 438yd 6.5av 5TD 1fmb
2. Tajh Boyd, QB Clemson (6-0; beat Boston College 24-14)
   LW:   30-44  68.2%  334yd  1TD 0int   9rsh  33yd 3.7av 1TD 0fmb
   TOT: 123-185 66.5% 1783yd 15TD 2int  66rsh 187yd 2.8av 5TD 0fmb
3. [up 1] Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon (6-0; beat Washington 45-24)
   LW:   24-31  77.4%  366yd  3TD 0int  13rsh  88yd 6.8av 1TD 0fmb
   TOT: 100-165 60.6% 1724yd 17TD 0int  41rsh 426yd  10av 8TD 0fmb
4. [dn 1] Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville (6-0; beat Rutgers 24-10)
   LW:   21-31  67.7%  310yd  2TD 1int   7rsh  11yd 1.6av 0TD 1fmb
   TOT: 125-176 71.0% 1872yd 18TD 2int  22rsh  49yd 2.2av 0TD 1fmb
5. Jordan Lynch, QB N. Illinois (6-0; beat Akron 27-20)
   LW:   16-35  45.7%  220yd  1TD 0int  15rsh  83yd 5.5av 1TD 0fmb
   TOT: 118-195 60.5% 1333yd 13TD 4int 106rsh 616yd 5.8av 4TD 1fmb
6. Aaron Murray, QB Georgia (4-2; lost to Missouri 41-26)
   LW:   25-45  55.6%  290yd  3TD 2int  4rsh   5yd 1.3av 0TD 1fmb
   TOT: 123-196 62.8% 1824yd 17TD 5int 28rsh  78yd 2.8av 3TD 2fmb
7. Braxton Miller, QB Ohio State (6-0; idle)
   LW:   DNP; no game last week
   TOT:  49-75  65.3%  609yd  6TD 2int 57rsh 233yd 4.1av 0TD 2fmb
8. [up 1] Jameis Winston, QB Florida State (5-0; idle)
   LW:   DNP; no game last week
   TOT:  90-123 73.2% 1441yd 17TD 2int 36rsh 135yd 3.8av 2TD 0fmb
9. [up 1] Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin (4-2; beat Northwestern 35-6)
   LW:   22rsh 172yd 7.8av 1TD 0fmb; 1rec 5yd 0TD; 0retYd
   TOT:  90rsh 870yd 9.7av 8TD 0fmb; 1rec 5yd 0TD; 0retYd
10. [new] Brandin Cooks, WR Oregon St (5-1; beat Washington State 52-24)
    LW:  11rec 137yd  2TD 0fmb;  4rsh  34yd 8.5av 1TD 0fmb;   0retYd 0TD 0fmb
    TOT: 63rec 944yd 11TD 0fmb; 16rsh 106yd 6.6av 1TD 0fmb;  -2retYd 0TD 1fmb
11. [dn 3] Marqise Lee, WR USC (4-2; beat Arizona 38-31)
    LW:  DNP; injury
    TOT: 30rec 385yd  1TD 0fmb;  5rsh   1yd 0.2av 0TD 0fmb; 145retYd 0TD 1fmb
12. [dn 1] Jadeveon Clowney, DE South Carolina (5-1; beat Arkansas 52-7)
    LW:   2 tackle 0 sack + 0 tfl 0 pbu 0 int 0 ffmb 0 blocked kicks
    TOT: 14 tackle 2 sack + 1 tfl 0 pbu 0 int 1 ffmb 0 blocked kicks

Up to five players make the trip to New York, and if there's a fifth it could be one of the following quarterbacks, but they all have to up their game as last week wasn't a good one. Jordan Lynch of Northern Illinois completed just 46% of his passes in a narrow win over Akron, the kind of team a Heisman candidate should feast on. His rushing totals are impressive and his team is 6-0 so there's a chance he starts to get noticed like last year, but he needs to make it happen.

The only reason Lynch doesn't drop a spot is because Aaron Murray had an even worse outing with a fumble returned for a touchdown and two interceptions. Of course, just a week after calling him a front-runner some are saying he's dead in the water but if Georgia wins out they'd probably face Alabama in the SEC title game, so the chance is still there for Murray to be relevant, but everything has to go his way. He's a good example of why we don't jump players up to the top willy-nilly. And then there's Braxton Miller, whose team didn't play so he and his meager stats couldn't take advantage of the others' misfortunes. For Miller to get to New York he needs to have about 350 passing yards per game, about 3 touchdowns, and maybe 100 rushing yards wouldn't hurt. Then, if Ohio State is the only undefeated team, people will be talking about his candidacy again.

At #8, up one, is Jameis Winston of Florida State. Idle last week, this next game will determine whether he remains in the race. A win would give him a huge boost of course while a loss means he gets lost in the shuffle of the endless supply of quarterbacks available. And there are quite a few that aren't on the list yet. Bretty Hundley of UCLA is getting some attention, but his stats are nothing special; unless UCLA wins its big Pac-12 games don't expect to see him here. Bryce Petty of Baylor is putting up huge numbers but he's got to be the ultimate "system" quarterback given Baylor's offense. Sean Mannion of Oregon is way out in front with over 2,500 passing yards in essentially a passing-only offense. And at some point A.J. McCarron will get buzz as the "best player on the best team" candidate if #1 Alabama remains undefeated while other teams take losses.

The top running back continues to be Melvin Gordon of Wisconsin who had 172 yards against Northwestern and moves up to #9. He very nearly held onto his 10-yard-per-carry average, too. Other RBs that we might consider include Bishop Sankey of Washington; if the Huskies had defeated either Stanford or Oregon he'd be here already. Lache Seastrunk looked strong until he had just 54 yards against Kansas State, and Mike Davis of South Carolina is making waves in some quarters but again, let's see him lead his team to a big victory or get to the top 5 in stats.

Instead of adding a running back—or yet another quarterback—this week we chose Sean Mannion's top target, Brandin Cooks. He's the only receiver in the country averaging over 150 yards per game and last week he had 2 TD catches and one rushing touchdown. He averages over 10 catches per game and 2 TDs per game. Cooks moves in at #10, one spot above the fading Marqise Lee, who missed another game with injury and has no hope of getting back into the mix.

And at some point we may want to add another defensive player since it looks like Jadeveon Clowney won't even be the token top-10 player this season. He had just two tackles vs. Arkansas. Vic Beasley of Clemson is getting some notice, but we prefer Anthony Barr of UCLA at this point. With only three more players to add before we start cutting, we're not sure a D-only player will make the list, but it's looking like Clowney will be the first cut.

Week 7 Previews: Missouri/Georgia, Florida/LSU, Oregon/Washington predictions and spreads

Week 7 has some great games as the college football season is really in full swing. Here we'll preview a half dozen of the best the week has to offer. Since we're right in the midst of transitioning from our modified pre-season ratings to the All-Division Strength power rating, we'll give the score margin predictions for both, along with predictions based on yardage analysis. And of course we'll add our own summary prediction which adds a healthy dose of gut feeling.

Missouri (5-0) at Georgia (4-1)

Modified: Georgia by 3
Strength: Georgia 36, Missouri 34 (Georgia 60% chance to win, 33% vs. spread)
Yardage: Georgia 49, Missouri 24 (Georgia leads passing yards 384 to 237)
Line/Spread: Georgia by 7 1/2

Much was made about Georgia's early schedule (the "gauntlet") where they took on three top ten teams and won two of three. Supposedly they had a bit of a breather coming after that, but Tennessee was anything but. Missouri looks much better than Tennessee, and they're nearly a top ten team themselves if the Strength power rating can be believed. They rank one spot higher there and two spots higher in our last Bayesian modified rating; in each case, however, home field advantage keeps the Bulldogs on top, and using yardage to determine a score makes Georgia a huge favorite. That should make us lean toward Georgia but our gut says the Bulldogs are a tired, hurt team (missing 2 RBs and 2 WRs) while Missouri is hungry to make the college football world pay attention to them again, hence the upset pick.

Final Prediction: Missouri 34, Georgia 22
 

Oklahoma (5-0) vs. Texas (3-2)

Modified: Oklahoma by 11
Strength: Okahoma 35, Texas 21 (Oklahoma 82% to win, 50.5% vs. spread)
Yardage: Oklahoma 51, Texas 24 (Oklahoma 345 rushing yards, Texas 145)
Line/Spread: Oklahoma by 13 1/2

Here's another game where the spread by the yardage analysis is far removed from the margin via our score-based power ratings. The big thing there is rushing yardage, where Oklahoma's #13 adjusted rushing offense is facing Texas' #119 rushing defense. Texas couldn't stop BYU on the ground and Blake Bell is behind center for the Sooners; the only question seems to be whether the Sooners get a blowout or just a win.

Final Prediction: Oklahoma 42, Texas 24 
 

Northwestern (4-1) at Wisconsin (3-2)

Modified: Wisconsin by 11
Strength: Wisconsin 33, Northwestern 20 (Wisconsin 90% to win, 63% vs. spread)
Yardage: Wisconsin 39, Northwestern 21 (leads rushing and passing by 70 yards each)
Line/Spread: Wisconsin by 10

Both these teams gave Ohio State a good run for the money playing at home but came up short. Wisconsin has had a week to think about it while Northwestern's wounds are still fresh. You could argue that the Wildcats have proven to themselves they can compete with the big boys, but their loss might have been more emotional and therefore worse. I think Wisconsin wins this game but Northwestern's defense is decent against the run which should keep things from getting out of control.

Final Prediction: Wisconsin 27, Northwestern 17
 

Florida (4-1) at LSU (5-1)

Modified: LSU by 13
Strength: LSU 31, Florida 21 (LSU 81% to win, 54% vs. spread)
Yardage: Florida 26, LSU 10 (LSU 23 rushing yards, 241 passing; Florida ~200 yards each)
Line/Spread: LSU by 7

One of the more interesting of the high-profile SEC matchups, LSU has discovered their offense (specifically, the ability to pass the ball) while Florida's scoring defense ranks #1. With the Tigers at home that translates to a 10-point LSU win in our Strength power rating, but the yardage numbers are totally different. There, Florida's rushing defense is so strong that they can hold LSU (#54 rushing offense) to under 25 yards for the game. And Florida's offense can actually score since LSU's defense has had some trouble this year. Though we know for sure the Gators' rushing D is overrated at this point (they probably are #1, but not by a 50-yard margin), we're going with the upset here, since people are getting complacent thinking the SEC pecking order has already been determined.

Final Prediction: Florida 23, LSU 21
 

Baylor (4-0) at Kansas State (2-3)

Modified: Baylor by 22
Strength: Baylor 66, Kansas State 33 (Baylor 99% to win, 84% vs. spread)
Yardage: Baylor 73, Kansas State 20 (Baylor 419 passing, 358 rushing, 777 total)
Line/Spread: Baylor by 17 1/2 (over/under 73 1/2)

This game is interesting simply because of Baylor's involvement. How long will their string of 70-point games continue? The Strength power rating has them coming up a few points short, but the yardage numbers say they'll make it. The win margin estimates are 22, 33, and 43 while the line is 17 1/2. The question is, is Kansas State the team to stop them? Their defense ranks 41st in scoring and 23rd in yardage, more formidable than what Baylor has faced but not elite. At some point Baylor should hit the wall Houston did in 1989; that team went to Texas A&M a 27 point favorite in our Strength rating (48-21) and lost 17-13 when A&M used a 1-5-5 to stop the Cougars' Air Raid attack. Is there a scheme that can beat Baylor in the same way? Note that the Bears use the run as much or more than the pass, so making them one-dimensional will be tough. A better bet might be trying to keep up in the shootout; K-State can't do that but it could make easy work of the over/under.

Final Prediction: Baylor 70, Kansas State 49

Oregon (5-0) at Washington (4-1)

Modified: Oregon by 16
Strength: Oregon 35, Washington 28 (Oregon 72% to win, 35% vs. spread)
Yardage: Washington 42, Oregon 35 (Washington 300 passing yards, Oregon 250 rushing) 
Line/Spread: Oregon by 13 1/2

This one has similarities to the Northwestern-Wisconsin game, with Washington coming off a close, emotional loss and having to face a tough foe. The difference is that they're at home and the foe their facing might be tougher than the last one. How will the Huskies respond? More than anything this is a great test for Oregon, who demolished four mid-to-poor-level BCS teams (Virginia, Cal, Tennessee, Colorado) by a combined 230-56. Washington is a different animal, ranking #4 in the Strength power rating where Oregon is #3. Home field doesn't quite cover the big gap in rating differential however, so the Ducks are a 7-point favorite there. Looking at yardage gives Washington the edge, however, by the same margin, so look for the Ducks to be tested. Washington ranks as the #2 defense but don't look for them to be able to shut down Oregon; they'll keep up on offense while keeping Mariota and company from running away with it.

Final Prediction: Oregon 42, Washington 35

Baylor's yardage stats are insane; so is Florida's rushing defense

Yes, more about Baylor. Now that we've run the yardage stats for the first time this year, we see just how crazy Baylor's offense has been: against the average FBS team they are putting up over 850 yards of total offense.

The usual caveats apply here, even moreso for yardage this early in the season. For most teams 20% of their total is against FCS teams and is meaningless. That leaves maybe 4 games against FBS teams and the numbers swings are pretty wild. Baylor has played only 4 games, 3 against FBS teams.

Still, you can't ignore what they've been doing. After adjusting for opposition they lead the nation in both rushing and passing yardage, and are #1 in total offense by a huge margin.

Total offense (adjusted for opposition) through October 5, 2013

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1   1. Baylor                       4-0   853.2[  1]  373.0[  1]  480.2[  1]
  3   2. Texas A&M                    4-1   604.6[  2]  259.8[ 12]  344.8[ 11]
  2   3. Oregon                       5-0   604.6[  3]  314.6[  4]  289.9[ 33]
 22   4. Arizona St                   3-2   592.9[  4]  177.6[ 59]  415.2[  2]
 11   5. Georgia                      4-1   576.9[  5]  235.9[ 21]  340.9[ 12]

The gap between Baylor and the #2 teams is about 250 yards per game. Texas A&M and Oregon are neck-and-neck for #2 (in raw yardage Oregon leads A&M by about 35 yards per game but the Aggies of course played Alabama).

Baylor's passing numbers are crazy; they average almost 500 yards against an "average" defense:

Passing Offense (adjusted for opposition) through October 5, 2013

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1   1. Baylor                       4-0   853.2[  1]  373.0[  1]  480.2[  1]
  9   2. Arizona St                   3-2   592.9[  4]  177.6[ 59]  415.2[  2]
  2   3. Oregon St                    4-1   455.5[ 43]   58.0[126]  397.5[  3]
  8   4. Washington St                4-2   458.6[ 42]   71.2[124]  387.4[  4]
 10   5. Indiana                      3-2   574.5[  6]  205.2[ 39]  369.3[  5]

In rushing Baylor actually is #2 in raw yardage to New Mexico. But Baylor has faced tougher rushing defenses than the Lobos, so they beat them by nearly 40 yards when adjusted. Note that other than Baylor, no top 5 passing team is even in the top 35 in rushing.

Rushing Offense (adjusted for opposition) through October 5, 2013

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  2   1. Baylor                       4-0   853.2[  1]  373.0[  1]  480.2[  1]
  1   2. New Mexico                   2-3   388.2[ 83]  332.2[  2]   56.0[126]
  4   3. Army                         2-4   382.7[ 86]  326.5[  3]   56.1[125]
  3   4. Oregon                       5-0   604.6[  3]  314.6[  4]  289.9[ 33]
  7   5. Georgia Tech                 3-2   418.8[ 62]  308.0[  5]  110.8[122]

Again, note the number of one-dimensional offenses at the top: New Mexico, Army, and Georgia Tech are all in the bottom few in passing yardage. Even Oregon is only #33.

So the Bears are remarkably not only for the sheer volume of offense but also their balance: they're great at both running and passing the ball. So what teams have a defense that could slow them down?

Total Defense (adjusted for opposition) through October 5, 2013

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  2   1. Florida                      4-1   170.6[  1]    4.5[  1]  166.0[  8]
  7   2. Florida St                   5-0   240.2[  2]   87.2[  8]  152.9[  4]
  5   3. Virginia Tech                5-1   243.7[  3]   85.8[  6]  157.8[  5]
  1   4. Michigan St                  4-1   252.8[  4]   69.4[  2]  183.4[ 21]
 14   5. Southern Cal                 3-2   255.8[  5]  127.6[ 34]  128.1[  1]
 10   6. Washington                   4-1   269.6[  6]  106.6[ 18]  163.0[  7]
 16   7. Memphis                      1-3   271.1[  7]   73.7[  3]  197.3[ 31]
 12   8. Alabama                      5-0   275.1[  8]   97.1[ 13]  177.9[ 17]
  3   9. Louisville                   5-0   276.2[  9]   96.8[ 12]  179.3[ 18]
  6  10. Wisconsin                    3-2   278.2[ 10]  109.1[ 20]  169.0[ 11]

Presumably that defense would need to be very strong against both the run and the pass. The top three teams here seem to fit that description, with Florida, Florida State, and Virginia Tech in the top ten against both.

The passing defense rankings are pretty interesting:

Passing Defense (adjusted for opposition) through October 5, 2013

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
 33   1. Southern Cal                 3-2   255.8[  5]  127.6[ 34]  128.1[  1]
 61   2. West Virginia                3-3   325.2[ 20]  189.6[ 96]  135.5[  2]
 19   3. Arizona                      3-1   300.9[ 16]  159.3[ 67]  141.6[  3]
  5   4. Florida St                   5-0   240.2[  2]   87.2[  8]  152.9[  4]
  9   5. Virginia Tech                5-1   243.7[  3]   85.8[  6]  157.8[  5]

According to this chart, Baylor has already faced the #2 passing defense in the country and racked up 396 yards against them. That's much lower than their adjusted 480 yard average, however, one reason the Mountaineers rank so high. Note that they are just #61 in raw numbers—an average pass defense. But they held Oklahoma (245 adjusted average) to 119 yards, for example, so the average team would expect to only get 135 yards against them. The same logic shows how USC ends up at #1 (they held #4 passing team Washington State to just 215, for example). And, of course, it's still pretty early in the season and these numbers will change—Florida State and Virginia Tech are probably more reliably ranked right now.

Rushing Defense (adjusted for opposition) through October 5, 2013

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  2   1. Florida                      4-1   170.6[  1]    4.5[  1]  166.0[  8]
  1   2. Michigan St                  4-1   252.8[  4]   69.4[  2]  183.4[ 21]
 16   3. Memphis                      1-3   271.1[  7]   73.7[  3]  197.3[ 31]
  5   4. East Carolina                4-1   362.6[ 47]   76.8[  4]  285.8[110]
  3   5. Rutgers                      4-1   423.1[ 84]   84.5[  5]  338.5[126]

And then there's Florida, who has the best scoring and yardage defense; the latter is mostly due to their insane rushing defense, which according to the numbers so far would hold the average team to under 5 yards per game. Here's a look at what they've given up so far, and what their opponents average in raw figures:

Opponent      Ave        vs. FLA       diff
Toledo        208.8        50        -158.8
Miami FL      213.8        50        -163.8
Tennessee     211.0        66        -145.0
Kentucky      162.2        48        -114.2
Arkansas      216.0       111        -105.0

When you consider that those teams' averages are brought way down by their game with Florida, it's not hard to see that the Gators are holding teams to a ridiculous amount below their former average, maybe by 170 yards or so. With the average FBS gaining maybe 175 yards per game, they're expected to net just 5 yards against the Gators. Now, that's a bit silly; it would imply that probably 50 teams should have negative yardage vs. Florida. But after just 5 games these things show up in the stats. The rest of the top five in rushing defense have realistic numbers and Florida will join them, but don't be surprised if their adjusted average stays below 50 yards per game.

What would happen if Baylor met Florida? It would be great to see, and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if it ended up happening in the Fiesta or Cotton Bowl.

Differences between Bayesian and unbiased power ratings at week 6

As week 7 approaches in the college football season, we're transitioning from referring to our Bayesian-modified pre-season rankings to the unbiased Strength power rating. The main difference between the two is that the former uses pre-season rankings as a basis for comparison, while the latter starts with no knowledge of the teams. The former is more useful in the early weeks of course, but the unbiased version starts to become more reliable by mid-season.

Let's take a look at the "final" Bayesian modification, post-week 6, and compare that to how the teams rank in week 6's Strength power rating. There are some cases where teams are ranking quite differently with no bias. Sometimes that's because the ratings haven't quite jelled yet; other times it's because the pre-season rankings for a team's opponents were off. We'll speculate as to which ranking is more accurate for each example.

#1 Baylor is one of the few teams that have the same rank in both ratings, which is ironic since they are probably the most controversial team in the nation in terms of their correct rating. The Bears deserve to be #1 here for what they've done but the question remains whether their game plan on offense can be short-circuited by a strong defense. Their own defense is suspect, too, at #74 in the All-Division power rating.

Week 6 Pre-season Bayesian modified rankings vs. current Strength*

Week6 Modified	Team	Record	Unbiased Strength	Diff
1	Baylor	4-0	1	0
2	Oregon	5-0	3	-1
3	Florida St	5-0	2	1
4	Alabama	5-0	9	-5
5	LSU	5-1	6	-1
6	Ohio State	6-0	13	-7
7	Texas A&M	4-1	18	-11
8	Louisville	5-0	5	3
9	Stanford	5-0	8	1
10	Clemson	5-0	7	3
11	Oklahoma	5-0	24	-13
12	Texas Tech	5-0	16	-4
13	Arizona St	3-2	19	-6
14	Missouri	5-0	11	3
15	UCLA	4-0	10	5
16	Georgia	4-1	12	4
17	Wisconsin	3-2	20	-3
18	Washington	4-1	4	14
19	Florida	4-1	15	4
20	Utah St	3-3	28	-8
21	Arizona	3-1	17	4
22	Miami FL	5-0	14	8
23	Michigan	5-0	46	-23
24	Utah	3-2	26	-2
25	South Carolina	4-1	32	-7
26	Mississippi	3-2	52	-26
27	BYU	3-2	30	-3
28	Oklahoma St	4-1	21	7
29	Georgia Tech	3-2	23	6
30	Virginia Tech	5-1	34	-4
31	Auburn	4-1	27	4
32	Iowa	4-2	53	-21
33	Michigan St	4-1	57	-24
34	Kansas St	2-3	42	-8
35	Texas	3-2	70	-35
36	Boise St	3-2	33	3
37	Southern Cal	3-2	36	1
38	Notre Dame	4-2	60	-22
39	Central Florida	4-1	35	4
40	Northwestern	4-1	51	-11
41	TCU	2-3	25	16
42	Indiana	3-2	22	20
43	Ball St	5-1	50	-7
44	Washington St	4-2	40	4
45	Nebraska	4-1	31	14
46	Oregon St	4-1	62	-16
47	East Carolina	4-1	38	9
48	Tennessee	3-3	39	9
49	Marshall	3-2	29	20
50	Penn State	3-2	45	5
51	Iowa St	1-3	74	-23
52	Maryland	4-1	37	15
53	Arkansas	3-3	67	-14
54	Illinois	3-2	47	7
55	Northern Illinois	5-0	54	1
56	Houston	4-0	44	12
57	Syracuse	2-3	71	-14
58	Bowling Green	5-1	56	2
59	Fresno St	5-0	58	1
60	Toledo	3-3	68	-8
61	Mississippi St	2-3	41	20
62	Western Kentucky	4-2	73	-11
63	Kentucky	1-4	61	2
64	Cincinnati	3-2	75	-11
65	North Carolina	1-4	72	-7
66	Boston College	3-2	55	11
67	Rice	3-2	80	-13
68	Florida Atlantic	2-4	79	-11
69	Navy	3-1	43	26
70	LA-Lafayette	3-2	66	4
71	Colorado St	2-3	95	-24
72	Vanderbilt	3-3	69	3
73	Pittsburgh	3-1	48	25
74	Minnesota	4-2	87	-13
75	Ohio U.	4-1	49	26
76	North Carolina St	3-2	81	-5
77	Rutgers	4-1	78	-1
78	Wyoming	3-2	65	13
79	Colorado	2-2	86	-7
80	North Texas	2-3	64	16
81	Duke	3-2	63	18
82	West Virginia	3-3	59	23
83	Memphis	1-3	76	7
84	San Jose St	2-3	88	-4
85	Buffalo	3-2	77	8
86	SMU	1-4	91	-5
87	Tulane	4-2	94	-7
88	California	1-4	92	-4
89	Tulsa	1-4	104	-15
90	Nevada	3-3	90	0
91	Wake Forest	3-3	96	-5
92	South Alabama	2-3	83	9
93	Virginia	2-3	82	11
94	Middle Tennessee St	3-3	89	5
95	Hawaii	0-5	106	-11
96	Purdue	1-4	114	-18
97	San Diego St	2-3	103	-6
98	Arkansas St	2-3	85	13
99	Texas-San Antonio	2-4	93	6
100	Army	2-4	101	-1
101	Connecticut	0-4	97	4
102	Kansas	2-2	111	-9
103	Texas St.	3-2	84	19
104	Kent St	2-4	100	4
105	New Mexico	2-3	109	-4
106	UNLV	3-2	108	-2
107	Troy	3-3	99	8
108	UAB	1-4	102	6
109	South Florida	1-4	107	2
110	Akron	1-5	105	5
111	Temple	0-5	98	13
112	UTEP	1-4	116	-4
113	Air Force	1-5	110	3
114	Louisiana Tech	2-4	115	-1
115	Central Michigan	2-4	117	-2
116	Massachusetts	0-5	113	3
117	LA-Monroe	2-4	112	5
118	Western Mich.	0-6	122	-4
119	Southern Miss	0-5	120	-1
120	Georgia State	0-5	119	1
121	Eastern Michigan	1-4	123	-2
122	Idaho	1-5	118	4
123	Miami OH	0-5	121	2
124	New Mexico St	0-6	125	-1
125	Florida Int'l	1-4	124	1

* uses All-Division Strength with non-FBS teams excluded

Florida State takes the #2 spot instead of Oregon in the unbiased ratings, something that isn't hard to argue after the Maryland game. But both teams look like they should be in the top three either way.

Alabama fell from #1 to #4 in our Bayesian updates, but in the current Strength ratings the Tide are only #9. Their defense is at #4 so it's not a question of misinterpreting the Texas A&M game. Mostly the Tide haven't had to use their full power yet except against the Aggies, but there's a question as to whether their offense will "drop the ball" for them at some point. However, we naturally think that the Bayesian rating is more accurate here and that the Tide will move up in the Strength rating over the next few weeks. SEC-mate LSU looks fairly ranked by either system at #5 or #6.

Ohio State had moved up a spot to #6 in the Bayesian rankings but the Buckeyes are #13 in the unbiased rankings; mainly this is because San Diego State is far worse than their pre-season ranking by which OSU's 42-7 win is judged, and to a lesser extent Northwestern. Ohio State has played 6 games already and the unbiased Strength ratings should be accurate for them by now, so don't be surprised if they fail to play like a top ten team—they might not be one. Same goes for Texas A&M, who is only #18 in Strength currently, with their defense ranking #108.

Louisville, Stanford, and Clemson all rank a bit higher when unbiased; that's probably because we ranked them too low in the pre-season and at 5-0 all of their ratings are still 1/6 pre-season; remove that and there's even less discrepancy. Oklahoma, however, is just #24—13 spots lower—when bias is removed. Their 34-0 win over Louisiana-Monroe looks inconsequential when ULM's true strength is used rather than our much-too-high pre-season ranking. Their Tulsa and Notre Dame wins are less impressive, too.

Much of the rest of the top 25 is similar in both lists. Texas Tech isn't quite as high with all bias removed, but they're still solidly in the top 25. Arizona State is 6 spots lower but at 3-2 still remains in the top 25 as well. Missouri, who just made the AP top 25, looks even better at #11, and UCLA is #10. And in both systems Georgia is outside the top 10, either #16 or #12. And Wisconsin is a lower-top 20 team with either modified bias or no bias.

Washington is an interesting case. With pre-season modification the Huskies dropped from #12 to #17, but with no bias they are #4 in the nation. The reason? It's almost all the Illinois game. The modified ratings gave them credit for beating the #108 team by 10 points; the unbiased system sees that as a win over the #47 team.

Florida and Arizona get a small boost from the removal of bias, but Miami gets a bigger one, up 8 spots to #14. The reason is that FAU has outperformed, and even Savannah State is 10 points better than they were last year. Both Utah and Utah State are in the modified top 25 but not in the unbiased top 25; they each played a team that radically underperformed (Oregon State, San Jose State) our pre-season predictions; the unbiased rankings look fairer for these teams who sit at 3-2 and 3-3.

#25 South Carolina also fails to make the unbiased top 25 by 7 spots, but #23 Michigan is a whole 'nother story. The Wolverines only rank #46 with all bias removed. Opponents Notre Dame and UConn both underperformed, but that's a huge discrepancy; the truth is probably somewhere in-between, meaning Michigan might not be a top 25 team despite their 5-0 start—something not too hard to swallow given their struggles with Akron and UConn.

A few teams make the unbiased top 25 that finished outside the top 25 in our modified rankings. Should they be considered top 25 teams? Oklahoma State is #21 despite their recent weakness, vs. #28 with the pre-season starting point; that one's a good sign for the team's future. Indiana—#42 both pre-season and after modification—is #22 despite two losses; their loss to Navy and #118 ranked defense make us think the pre-season number is closer to the truth. Georgia Tech is #23 (unbiased) vs. #28; they haven't looked like a top 25 team the last few weeks though. And surprisingly, TCU, who seems to be a big disappointment, is #25 when unbiased instead of the #41 they fell to. We pegged them as the #24 team to start with and despite a 2-3 record that's how well they're playing; note that they've lost to three top 25 teams.

Mississippi is in the same boat as Michigan—faring quite poor in the unbiased power rating, 26 spots lower than their #26 modified ranking. Their wins over Vanderbilt and Texas carry very little weight with the unbiased rankings. Speaking of Texas, their struggle this year is no secret. They started at #5 in our rankings (!) and fell all the way to #35 when modified for performance. But according to the unbiased power ratings that wasn't nearly far enough—they rank a dismal #70 there. Another pre-season top ten team, Oregon State, fell to #46 for underperformance but the unbiased ratings say the Beavers should be down at #62.

The Big Ten doesn't fare well in the unbiased ratings. Along with Michigan, Iowa and Michigan State are much lower, 21 and 24 spots lower to be exact. The two teams played each other and Iowa got too much credit for only losing by 12; both teams played huge underperformer Western Michigan. The Spartans also lost to Notre Dame, another team that looks very bad with all bias removed (#60 instead of #38). Northwestern is 11 spots lower, but Nebraska looks better in the unbiased rankings at #31, up 14.

Marshall ranks remarkably high at #29 in Strength. Their two losses are to major outperformers Ohio and Virginia Tech, by close scores. Even Gardner-Webb is surprisingly good this year. Iowa State is either #51 or #74 depending on which ratings you spec; the Cyclones faced slight overperformers Northern Iowa and Iowa but also huge underperformers Tulsa and Texas. They've also had just 4 games, meaning both systems are prone to error.

Mississippi State fell from #39 pre-season to #61 adjusted, but they're #41 when unbiased, meaning our pre-season ranking might be valid; the loss to Auburn shouldn't hit them so hard. Navy also ranks much higher when unbiased, #43 to #69, but that's easy to see: at four games the modified system hasn't fully re-evaluated them upward, and the unbiased system could be slightly overrating them for lack of information; they'll probably end up somewhere between the two. Pitt and Ohio are also both more than 20 spots higher in the unbiased ratings, at #48 and #49. But Colorado State is the opposite; despite nearly holding steady from our pre-season ranking over the last 6 weeks, their unbiased ranking is only #95, down 24 spots, due to facing underperformers Tulsa and Cal Poly.

Louisiana-Monroe, who fell the most during our pre-season re-evaluation phase (from #54 to #117) seems to have been evaluated pretty fairly; they rank #112 in the unbiased Strength rating. And Illinois, who moved up from #108 to #54, ranks #47, so the Illini are probably for real—in terms of being an above-average team.

And at the very bottom of the chart, we can try to answer the question of which team is the worst in the FBS. Florida International ranked #125 in our modified rankings, but they beat Southern Miss. In the unbiased ratings, however, it's New Mexico State that takes the #125 spot, one week after getting blown out 66-17 at New Mexico.

Last Bayesian update: Baylor reaches #1

Baylor, the most impressive team compared to our pre-season rankings, finally touches #1 in our final Bayesian update to those rankings. The Bears whomped West Virginia 73-42, which when combined with their three other performances—and still using 1/3 of their pre-season #28 ranking—puts them just ahead of Oregon, who started the year at #2.

Since the Bayesian update doesn't account for movements in opposition quality, its usefulness is coming to an end and our regular, unbiased Strength power rating will supercede it. By next week those ratings will surely be a better measure of a team's strength. For now, let's look at where we started teams and where they've ending up after an average of 5 games per team.

Florida State makes a late push to #3, knocking Alabama to #4; the top four would make for a great playoff. LSU has a loss to Georgia but it was close and their other wins took them from #18 all the way to #5, while Ohio State was nearly static, up just one spot to #6. Texas A&M drifted down slowely week by week from #3 to #7. Louisville and Stanford have both bucked our lower rankings and rose to #8 and #9 respectively, while Clemson rose 4 spots to #10.

Oklahoma was erratic but in the end was up 10 spots to #11; another Big Twelve team, Texas Tech, has been one of the year's surprises, rising from #50 all the way to #12. Arizona State has somewhat disappointed while still playing pretty well at times, dropping from #8 to #13. Missouri and UCLA are decidedly up, while Georgia is down—particularly after needing overtime to beat Tennessee. Wisconsin ended up 10 spots despite 2 losses.

Washington was our pre-season "surprise" pick all the way at #12, and they've nearly lived up to it so far, remaining in the top 20 at #18. Florida has played almost exactly to our projections, down 3 to #19. Utah State doesn't have the record to show for it but they're up from #38 to #20 due to three oversized wins and 2 of 3 losses being very close and on the road. Arizona has only a loss to Washington and is up from #30 to #21. Miami slipped just a bit to #22, while Michigan's poor outings against Akron and UConn dropped the 5-0 Wolverines from #15 to #23. Utah had two close losses but some strong wins that took them from #60 all the way to #24. South Carolina started at #13 and has faded to #25.

Final (week 6) Bayesian update to pre-season rankings

pre- season	Week1	Week2	Week3	Week4	Week5	Week6	Team	Total Change	Rating
28	13	4	4	2	2	1	Baylor	+27	82.17
2	2	2	1	1	1	2	Oregon	0	81.15
9	9	9	6	6	5	3	Florida St	+6	76.66
1	1	1	2	3	3	4	Alabama	-3	73.09
18	16	12	10	10	11	5	LSU	+13	71.58
7	8	6	7	5	4	6	Ohio State	+1	71.30
3	3	3	3	4	6	7	Texas A&M	-4	70.61
26	21	16	16	7	7	8	Louisville	+18	69.30
19	19	15	23	16	8	9	Stanford	+10	68.65
14	15	22	22	22	16	10	Clemson	+4	67.25
21	17	20	15	15	9	11	Oklahoma	+10	66.93
50	42	33	27	24	26	12	Texas Tech	+38	65.19
8	7	7	8	12	12	13	Arizona St	-5	64.96
33	30	28	31	25	24	14	Missouri	+19	64.89
23	20	19	11	11	13	15	UCLA	+8	64.17
4	4	5	5	8	10	16	Georgia	-12	64.08
27	31	29	25	21	20	17	Wisconsin	+10	62.36
12	10	10	14	20	19	18	Washington	-6	62.08
16	18	18	18	19	18	19	Florida	-3	61.68
38	43	40	29	26	14	20	Utah St	+18	61.65
30	29	17	17	18	22	21	Arizona	+9	61.60
17	22	21	21	27	23	22	Miami FL	-5	61.29
15	11	11	20	28	28	23	Michigan	-8	61.08
60	53	37	33	23	25	24	Utah	+36	61.00
13	14	14	13	14	17	25	South Carolina	-12	60.87
11	12	24	12	13	15	26	Mississippi	-15	60.19
31	35	25	26	32	31	27	BYU	+4	60.01
6	6	8	9	9	21	28	Oklahoma St	-22	59.77
34	24	23	19	17	27	29	Georgia Tech	+5	58.83
52	44	44	38	42	32	30	Virginia Tech	+22	58.68
51	49	43	37	36	39	31	Auburn	+20	57.95
66	64	66	59	38	30	32	Iowa	+34	56.72
37	41	45	34	33	34	33	Michigan St	+4	56.53
29	33	32	42	37	40	34	Kansas St	-5	56.30
5	5	13	24	29	29	35	Texas	-30	55.68
45	56	47	47	50	33	36	Boise St	+9	55.64
20	25	31	28	30	36	37	Southern Cal	-17	55.11
22	26	27	32	31	42	38	Notre Dame	-16	54.84
53	45	42	39	41	38	39	Central Florida	+14	54.78
25	28	26	30	35	37	40	Northwestern	-15	54.37
24	27	34	45	48	41	41	TCU	-17	53.37
42	34	52	40	51	50	42	Indiana	0	53.02
78	71	62	61	59	58	43	Ball St	+35	52.83
57	57	51	41	39	52	44	Washington St	+13	52.19
41	48	46	54	45	44	45	Nebraska	-4	52.13
10	23	30	35	43	47	46	Oregon St	-36	51.76
61	60	61	62	64	48	47	East Carolina	+14	51.74
43	46	39	46	49	54	48	Tennessee	-5	51.59
58	50	49	50	53	51	49	Marshall	+9	51.30
55	51	50	51	44	43	50	Penn State	+5	50.49
47	59	60	69	70	62	51	Iowa St	-4	49.75
72	70	57	48	34	35	52	Maryland	+20	49.54
83	68	68	65	63	60	53	Arkansas	+30	49.31
108	103	76	67	69	59	54	Illinois	+54	49.08
36	37	36	52	65	56	55	Northern Illinois	-19	48.95
95	92	86	87	72	57	56	Houston	+39	48.57
62	61	65	53	47	46	57	Syracuse	+5	48.49
69	54	48	58	52	49	58	Bowling Green	+11	48.20
48	55	56	56	58	63	59	Fresno St	-11	48.14
68	66	67	64	60	66	60	Toledo	+8	47.94
39	40	53	57	46	45	61	Mississippi St	-22	47.51
77	67	77	92	76	77	62	Western Kentucky	+15	47.46
64	72	64	66	68	70	63	Kentucky	+1	46.17
46	38	58	49	54	55	64	Cincinnati	-18	46.13
35	36	35	36	40	61	65	North Carolina	-30	45.37
56	58	59	63	66	68	66	Boston College	-10	45.09
40	39	38	44	55	65	67	Rice	-27	44.89
103	99	100	91	89	79	68	Florida Atlantic	+35	44.83
102	100	90	70	71	72	69	Navy	+33	44.64
65	77	78	68	73	73	70	LA-Lafayette	-5	44.62
74	87	81	76	67	69	71	Colorado St	+3	44.42
32	32	41	43	56	53	72	Vanderbilt	-40	44.35
82	85	87	80	80	71	73	Pittsburgh	+9	43.37
63	52	55	60	57	67	74	Minnesota	-11	43.13
89	97	94	94	93	90	75	Ohio U.	14	43.07
76	69	72	75	74	64	76	North Carolina St	0	42.82
75	65	69	72	79	78	77	Rutgers	-2	42.78
97	88	85	77	61	74	78	Wyoming	+19	42.77
96	86	74	78	81	76	79	Colorado	+17	41.72
85	82	82	81	75	75	80	North Texas	+5	41.38
79	74	63	71	78	82	81	Duke	-2	40.35
73	83	70	73	95	80	82	West Virginia	-9	39.82
91	91	96	95	86	85	83	Memphis	+8	39.63
44	47	54	55	62	81	84	San Jose St	-40	39.51
86	79	99	104	100	89	85	Buffalo	+1	38.36
67	78	80	84	83	86	86	SMU	-19	38.15
105	102	103	100	107	92	87	Tulane	+18	37.60
84	80	89	83	85	84	88	California	-4	37.09
59	75	73	88	87	94	89	Tulsa	-30	36.78
106	108	98	109	99	103	90	Nevada	+16	36.73
94	104	101	98	94	101	91	Wake Forest	+3	36.64
109	109	106	99	98	91	92	South Alabama	+17	36.57
71	63	71	74	77	83	93	Virginia	-22	35.94
80	84	88	90	90	93	94	Middle Tennessee St	-14	35.58
111	107	95	96	101	99	95	Hawaii	+16	35.52
70	81	83	79	88	96	96	Purdue	-26	34.91
49	76	84	85	82	87	97	San Diego St	-48	34.57
87	73	79	89	96	97	98	Arkansas St	-11	34.56
98	95	91	93	84	95	99	Texas-San Antonio	-1	33.42
107	101	109	101	103	102	100	Army	+7	33.15
81	93	93	97	92	104	101	Connecticut	-20	33.12
90	90	92	86	91	88	102	Kansas	-12	32.39
101	98	105	106	106	100	103	Texas St.	-2	32.27
88	96	102	105	109	106	104	Kent St	-16	31.54
113	115	112	114	111	113	105	New Mexico	+8	31.36
100	106	115	113	108	107	106	UNLV	-6	30.72
117	116	110	108	112	108	107	Troy	+10	29.48
104	105	107	107	102	105	108	UAB	-4	29.10
92	111	108	115	113	111	109	South Florida	-17	28.83
110	113	113	102	97	98	110	Akron	0	28.53
99	94	97	110	105	110	111	Temple	-12	26.89
112	112	114	111	110	109	112	UTEP	0	26.61
116	110	111	112	117	112	113	Air Force	+3	24.67
118	118	118	118	116	115	114	Louisiana Tech	+4	24.21
114	117	117	116	118	117	115	Central Michigan	-1	23.48
125	124	123	122	120	120	116	Massachusetts	+9	22.62
54	62	75	82	104	114	117	LA-Monroe	-63	20.04
93	89	104	103	114	116	118	Western Mich.	-25	19.87
115	114	116	117	115	118	119	Southern Miss	-4	18.78
124	123	124	125	124	124	120	Georgia State	+4	17.99
120	120	121	120	121	123	121	Eastern Michigan	-1	16.56
123	125	125	123	123	121	122	Idaho	+1	16.55
119	119	119	119	119	122	123	Miami OH	-4	16.36
122	122	120	121	122	119	124	New Mexico St	-2	14.47
121	121	122	124	125	125	125	Florida Int'l	-4	10.78

The teams that started in our top 25 and fell out are: Mississippi, ranked #11 to start but stumbled in a loss to Auburn lately; Oklahoma State, #6 at the beginning but a loss to West Virginia, and trouble with Kansas State, dropped them to #28. Pre-season #5 Texas is a story most are familiar with; the Longhorns fell every week they played, including losses to BYU and Mississippi and a meager win over Iowa State, and now are just #35. Southern Cal started at #20, and Lane Kiffin's job status could tell you they aren't there any more. And Notre Dame played poorly every week until last week but still dropped to #38 from #23. #24 TCU and #25 Northwestern also disappointed a bit and fell to #41 and #40. The worst fall was by Oregon State. Despite a 4-1 record they greatly underperformed their lofty #10 ranking each week, particularly in the opening home loss to Eastern Washington. They settled at #46.

Outperformers who didn't reach the top 25 include Virginia Tech (up from #52 to #30), Auburn (from #51 to #31), and Iowa (up from #66 to #32). Central Florida ended up 14 spots to #39, and Ball State's 48-27 crushing of Virginia capped a 35-spot rise to #43. Washington State was up 13 and East Carolina 14.

Some teams we thought would be awful but turned out to be above average at least: Maryland, despite the 63-0 loss to FSU, was up from #72 to #52. Arkansas didn't win much but they were 30 spots better than our #83 projection. And Illinois outperformed every time out and rose from #108 to #54, an amazing 54 spots. Houston's rise from #95 to #56 is about the opposite of last year's tumble from greatness.

Mississippi State and North Carolina went the other way, falling 22 and 30 spots to #61 and #65 respectively; we picked Rice to have a great year and so far it hasn't been as they have settled back to #67, down 27. And Vanderbilt has crashed from #32 to #72. Meanwhile FAU and Navy, who started at #103 and #102, sit at #68 and #69.

Some teams really hit the skids. So far San Jose State isn't looking like the #44 team we thought they'd be; more like #84. Tulsa is down 30 spots to #89, and San Diego State is down a whopping 48 to #97. Worst of all, of course, was Louisiana-Monroe, down from our pre-season #54 to #117 after three big losses in a row. They're still 2-4 so far, so they aren't remotely the worst team, just the biggest underperformer of the year: their rating is four touchdowns per game lower than we expected.

The worst team looks like Florida International. But they got a road win at Southern Miss last week, showing that even the lowest-performing teams have hope.

Just for curiosities sake: the teams that didn't budge were Oregon (started #2 and lived up to it); Indiana (all over the place before settling back at #42); North Carolina State (at #72, up and down only over their last 2 games); Akron (boosted by close Michigan loss, they were crushed by Ohio and ended up back at #110) and UTEP (the steadiest team, went in a tight range from #109 to #114 and ended where they started at #112)

Next week we stop talking about the pre-season at all, as the pecking order has been established. We'll do one more post comparing these rankings with the current power rating, seeing if and where there are discrepancies and where there is agreement.

Heisman Race, week 6: Boyd, Bridgewater, Mariota have strong weekends

After somewhat of a slow start, solid performances for the Heisman front-runners are becoming commonplace as we get into the heart of the season, meaning those who don't produce can get left behind. This week there is quite a bit of a shuffle as those who didn't have the best of games get passed up.

Boyd wipes out Syracuse, but still isn't quite #1

Tajh Boyd had a 5-touchdown passing performance against Syracuse so he now matches Johnny Manziel's passing TD total and has one more rushing touchdown. His yardage is almost exactly the same through the air. Only his completion percentage and rushing totals lag Manziel, and he has two fewer interceptions. We're almost ready to move him ahead of last year's winner but not quite; we can't do it on a game where Boyd was intercepted twice. This performance puts them almost even, but tie still goes to the defending champ. If Clemson beats Florida State in two weeks Boyd will be on top for sure.

Teddy Bridgewater of Louisville moves up a spot after a strong showing vs. Temple, with 348 yards, 2 touchdowns and no turnovers. He completed 71% and is at a 72% clip for the year. There is a huge gap between #2 Boyd and #3 Bridgewater, however; the latter doesn't run the ball much, and if you don't do that you're going to need Sam Bradford-like numbers. And while we wait for Boyd's next big game to pass judgement on him, Bridgewater doesn't really have any big games this year at all. It will take some major effort for Bridgewater to finish higher than he is right now.

Marcus Mariota continues to impress and moves up 2 spots to #4. He accounted for 7 touchdowns against Colorado. So far his opposition isn't much better than Bridgewater's, but it will be and it will be in those cases where he is judged the most. The only major advantages Bridgewater has over Mariota are: 1) completion percentage (72% to 59%) and the fact that, without Bridgewater, Louisville would probably be a much less successful team; it's hard to say the same about Mariota and the Oregon football machine. Mariota now has 21 total touchdowns, and 0 total turnovers, the best of any of the candidates.

Northern Illinois' Jordan Lynch falls a couple of spots as the others surge. The most productive runner of the duel-threat QBs, his passing numbers are generally less impressive. And in his latest game he threw as many picks (2) as he did touchdowns. He shares a problem with Bridgewater (poor competition) and in the win over Kent State he can't claim to be the reason they won the game—that was running back Cameron Stingely who had 266 yards. Darkhorse candidates like Lynch need to make it clear they are the reason their team is having success; generally Lynch can claim that and if he can't, he suffers. He'll need to post bigger numbers now that the MAC season has started.

1. Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M (4-1; no game last week)
   LW:  DNP; no game last week
   TOT: 100-140 71.4% 1489yd 14TD 4int 48rsh 314yd 6.5av 3TD 0fmb
2. Tajh Boyd, QB Clemson (5-0; beat Syracuse 49-14)
   LW:   20-27  74.1%  455yd  5TD 2int  8rsh  -5yd -.6av 0TD 0fmb
   TOT:  93-141 66.0% 1449yd 14TD 2int 57rsh 154yd 2.7av 4TD 0fmb
3. [up 1] Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville (5-0; beat Temple 30-7)
   LW:   25-35  71.4%  348yd  2TD 0int  3rsh   2yd 0.7av 0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 104-145 71.7% 1562yd 16TD 1int 15rsh  38yd 2.5av 0TD 0fmb
4. [up 2] Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon (5-0; beat Colorado 57-16)
   LW:   16-27  59.3%  355yd  5TD 0int  7rsh  43yd 6.1av 2TD 0fmb
   TOT:  76-134 56.7% 1358yd 14TD 0int 28rsh 338yd  12av 7TD 0fmb
5. [dn 2] Jordan Lynch, QB N. Illinois (5-0; beat Kent State 38-24)
   LW:   21-35  60.0%  244yd  2TD 2int 14rsh  94yd 6.7av 0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 102-160 63.8% 1113yd 12TD 4int 91rsh 533yd 5.9av 3TD 1fmb
6. [up 2] Aaron Murray, QB Georgia (4-1; beat Tennessee 34-31 OT)
   LW:   19-35  54.3%  196yd  3TD 0int  3rsh  53yd  18av 0TD 0fmb
   TOT:  98-151 64.9% 1534yd 14TD 3int 24rsh  73yd 3.0av 3TD 1fmb
7. [dn 2] Braxton Miller, QB Ohio State (6-0; beat Northwestern 40-30)
   LW:   15-28  57.7%  203yd  0TD 1int 17rsh  68yd 4.0av 0TD 2fmb
   TOT:  49-75  65.3%  609yd  6TD 2int 57rsh 233yd 4.1av 0TD 2fmb
8. [dn 1] Marqise Lee, WR USC (3-2; no game last week)
   LW:  DNP; no game last week
   TOT: 30rec 385yd 1TD 0fmb 5rsh  1yd 0.2av 0fmb 145retYd 0TD 1fmb
9. [new] Jameis Winston, QB Florida State (5-0; beat Maryland 63-0)
   LW:   23-32  71.9%  393yd  5TD 0int  7rsh  24yd 3.4av 0TD 0fmb
   TOT:  90-123 73.2% 1441yd 17TD 2int 36rsh 135yd 3.8av 2TD 0fmb
10. [dn 1] Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin (3-2; no game last week)
    LW:  DNP; no game last week
    TOT: 68rsh 698yd 10.3av 7TD 0fmb; 0rec 0yd 0TD; 0retYd
11. [dn 1] Jadeveon Clowney, DE South Carolina (4-1; beat Kentucky 35-28)
    LW:  DNP; injury
    TOT: 12 tackles 2 sacks + 1 tfl 0 pbu 0 int 1 ffmb 0 kBlock

Aaron Murray had an interesting game vs. Tennessee. It appeared Georgia might lose that game until Murray pulled out another winning drive at the end—at the time, a tying drive. That saved him from dropping off the face of the earth here, and when Tennessee fumbled away the game in overtime that made Murray a "clutch winner" who pulled off another miracle win. It helped him more than his pedestrian stats for the game would suggest, though for the year he's on track with the others. He even ran for over 50 yards, essentially tripling his season's production in just 3 carries. He moves up 2 to #6.

Braxton Miller, on the other hand, had a disastrous game he couldn't afford. After missing several games he was barely hanging on to the prospect of going to New York, but if Ohio State had emerged the only undefeated team he still had a shot at the trophy—but he had to be extraordinary. Even though Ohio State beat a ranked team in Northwestern, it was almost despite Miller rather than due to him. Carlos Hyde's 168 yards did most of the work while Miller threw an interception and fumbled the ball away twice. He shockingly overthrew a wide-open receiver in the end zone and an ill-advised shovel-pass could have easily cost them the game (it fell harmlessly "incomplete" though everyone around thought he'd fumbled). All of that, combined with his lack of stats for a 6-0 team, drops him two spots to #7, with little chance to get back into the upper echelons.

Marqise Lee didn't have a game this week and might not play next week. Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon was idle, too, one week after losing to Ohio State. And Jadeveon Clowney missed the Kentucky game with injured ribs, with coach Steve Spurrier practically questioning his committment to the team. All of these fall a spot into the also-ran area, with only Gordon having enough stats for a practical chance to move in the upward direction in the futute.

But Jameis Winston pops into the rankings with a bang. The FSU freshman QB had a field day against Maryland in a 63-0 romp. For now he hasn't done anything the rest of the field hasn't so he starts relatively low, but his stats are as strong as anyone's; should FSU beat Clemson two weeks from now with Winston leading the way, he could be among the front-runners in short order.

Some questions answered (Maryland, Notre Dame), others tabled for later (Baylor, Washington)

Before Saturday we posed 10 questions that the weekend's games might answer. Some were answered emphatically while others remain up in the air. Here are the results as we see them:

1. Q: Is Baylor the best team in the nation?
   A: Maybe
   
   Baylor beat West Virginia 73-42, a result which didn't quite match the spread in our modified rankings, but beat the pre-season spread by enough to put Baylor #1 in our Week 6 modified rankings, and the Bears hold on to #1 in our All-Division Strength power rating, too. So they could be the best team in the nation. On the other hand, they gave up 42 points. That doesn't happen often with teams that end up winning the national championship. Of course, that would rule out Alabama this year, too. The bottom line is we still need to see Baylor against better opponents and better defenses. Four games of 69+ points is impressive, amazing even, but we recall the 1989 Houston Cougars topping power ratings after four games (with three games of 65+ points) before a blitzing scheme by Texas A&M limited them to 13 points in a loss.
   
   
2. Q: How bad is Notre Dame?
   A: Not as bad as they looked in the first five games.
   
   Notre Dame beat Arizona State 37-34 in Arlington, their best game and best win of the season. The Irish move up from #42 to #38 in our modified pre-season rankings, and more importantly, from #90 to #64 in our Strength ratings. So it appears they're not headed for a dismal year, with 7-5 to 9-3 record given BYU, USC, and Stanford remaining on the schedule. A blowout loss to ASU would have spelled trouble, maybe even a losing season, but the Irish showed for the first time that they can play like a top 25 team.
   
   
3. Q: How good is Maryland?
   A: Not nearly as good as they looked before the FSU game.
   
   This was maryland's chance to show they could compete with the big boys; they couldn't, at all. After the 63-0 beatdown the real question is "is FSU the best team in the nation?" and, like Baylor, we have to answer with a definite "maybe."
   
   
4. Q: Who is better, Washington or Stanford?
   A: Unknown
   
   Stanford prevailed 31-28 at home thanks to a game-opening kickoff return touchdown and a half-ending TD pass. Take those away and Washington wins 28-17 on the road. Now, you can't just "take those away" so the result stands—a win by Stanford that pretty much covers home field advantage, meaning the teams are pretty evenly matched. But getting the win means Stanford has a big edge in the Pac-12 title race, so even if Washington is better they failed in their chance to prove it.
   
   
5. Q: Who is worse, Florida International or Southern Miss?
   A: Not certain.
   
   Now this one should have a pretty clear answer: FIU beat Southern Miss in Hattiesburg, so by the rules of head-to-head competition Southern Miss is worse. The Golden Eagles are also on a 17-game losing streak. But FIU only won by a point, 24-23, and the rest of their performances suggest they still might have to be considered the worst team in the FBS. So in this game there was no real winner.
   
   
6. Q: Playing at home, shouldn't Auburn beat Mississippi?
   A: Yes
   
   And they did, 30-22.
   
   
7. Q: Big Ten Question #1: Is Illinois the 3rd best team in the conference, or 10th best?
   A: Probably about 7th best?
   
   After getting pounded 39-19 by Nebraska, the argument for the Illini's greatness weakened a lot. Still, they're a lot better than we thought (12th in the Big Ten) and they've only lost to Washington and Nebraska.
   
   
8. Q: Big Ten Question #2: Is Michigan really any good?
   A: They can be...
   
   ...but don't count on consistency. And though they climb from #66 to #48 in our Strength power rating (and up to #23 in our modified pre-season rankings), they are still vulnerable to almost any team on their schedule. It took them a while to take control against the Gophers, and they never did have control against Akron and UConn.
   
   
9. Q: Big Ten Question #3: Could Northwestern actually be overrated?
   A: Yes.
   
   Northwestern played their best game of the season against Ohio State and are now #19 in the polls. They're just #35 in our Success rankings, so we'd say they probably don't deserve to be in the top 25—unless they beat Wisconsin next week.
   
   
10. Q: Big Ten Question #4: Is Iowa a sleeper for the Legends division title?
    A: Not anyore.
    
    Iowa sleepwalked through the Michigan State game and lost, 26-14, a game they probably needed to win to be in contention.
    
    
    
    

Week 6: What will we learn about Baylor, Notre Dame, Maryland, Washington, and others?

We've already learned a few things from week 6. On thursday we got further confirmation that Texas is much worse than last year's team, as they needed some very questionable calls to come out of Iowa State with a 31-30 win. Ditto for Louisiana-Monroe, who was dominated by Western Kentucky 31-10. Those have been two of the most disappointing teams in the nation.

On the flip side, Utah continued to prove itself, losing just 34-27 to a good UCLA team. Despite two close losses, the Utes are much better than the middling team we projected in August.

Friday night's games should tell us something about BYU and Utah State. The Cougars have been up and down and their win over Texas doesn't look as impressive anymore. Utah State has outperformed in most games but most of the teams on their schedule don't look as good as they did pre-season. Both schools lost to Utah in close contests.

Saturday's games will answer even more questions, or at least provide additional information. Here are the top ten questions that Saturday's action will (help) answer. We compare their pre-season ranking with their updated (Modified) ranking, and their current, unbiased Strength power rating rank.

1. Is Baylor the best team in the nation?
   Team              Pre-season     Modified      Strength PR
   W. Virginia (3-2)    #73            #80           #68
   @Baylor (3-0)        #28             #2            #1
   
   Baylor could be the nation's best team. Or they could be a great pretender. It's hard to say when they've played just 3 games against poor competition. West Virginia's upset of Oklahoma State makes them a legitimate test for the Bears, who remained #1 in our All-Division Strength power rating last week. While foe ULM continued to fade, Buffalo's 41-12 win over UConn kept Baylor's rating sky-high. Will the Bears falter, or capture the #1 spot in our final Modified rankings? Given the spread predicted from the recent rankings, it will take a lot to live up to their early performances, but the Mountaineers did lose 37-0 to Maryland.
   
   Pre-season Prediction: Baylor by 18
   Modified Prediction: Baylor by 42
   Strength power rating: Baylor by 51 (67-16)
   Vegas line/spread: Baylor by 28 1/2
   
   
2. How bad is Notre Dame?
   Team             Pre-season     Modified      Strength PR
   Arizona St (3-1)    #8             #12           #13
   @Notre Dame(3-2)   #22             #42           #90
   
   No doubt, Notre Dame hasn't lived up to our #22 pre-season ranking—even though we rated them lower than most prognosticators, they've underperformed in every game so far by our numbers. It's been enough to knock them down to #42, but the unbiased Strength power rating sits them at an abysmal #90! Many of their opponents—Michigan and Purdue for certain—haven't done well which drags the Irish down. Which ranking is closer to the truth, #42 or #90? Arizona State visits and they've been fairly stable so far; how well the Irish do here will give a big hint as to whether they will be returning to the top 25 this season. If they're really a well-below-average team (#90), expect them to lose to ASU by three touchdowns; a 10-point loss suggests a #42 ranking is correct, while an upset win means a return to the top 25 could be imminent.
   
   Pre-season Prediction: Arizona State by 6
   Modified Prediction: Arizona State by 10
   Strength power rating: Arizona State by 24 (52-28)
   Vegas line/spread: Arizona State by 5 1/2
   
   
3. How good is Maryland?
   Team            Pre-season     Modified      Strength PR
   Maryland (4-0)     #72            #35           #20
   @FSU (4-0)          #9             #5            #3
   
   Maryland has overperformed consistently this year, moving from a pessimistic #72 all the way to #35 in our modified rankings. Further, their unbiased Strength rating is #20. They travel to Florida State to get a test of how good they really might be. Did they just catch West Virginia at their worst when they beat the Mountaineers 37-0? And foes FIU and UConn have been terrible, so can we say beating those teams means anything? One thing's for sure: a road win over FSU means Maryland is for real. And if they lose we still learn something; even falling by 2 touchdowns suggests they're legitimately a top 25 team.
   
   Pre-season Prediction: FSU by 27
   Modified Prediction: FSU by 19
   Strength power rating: FSU by 19 (36-17)
   Vegas line/spread: FSU by 16 1/2
   
   
4. Who is better, Washington or Stanford?
   Team            Pre-season     Modified      Strength PR
   Washington(4-0)    #12            #19           #4
   @Stanford (4-0)    #19             #8           #7
   
   Our pre-season rankings contained some surprises, one of which was Washington at #12, seven spots ahead of Stanford. Since then, on-field performance has essentially made the teams trade places in our modified rankings, but not in the unbiased Strength ratings which consider this game to be #4 vs. #7! Why has Washington's ranking dropped in our modified ratings if they've done well enough to be #4 in Strength? Basically it's the Illinois game, which the Huskies won by just 10 points. The Modified ratings considered it a game against the #108 team (Illinois' pre-season ranking) so it dragged Washington down. The Illini have been far, far better than that. Is Washington really a top five team? If so they should beat Stanford or at least come very close.
   
   Pre-season Prediction: Stanford by 2
   Modified Prediction: Stanford by 9
   Strength power rating: Washington by 3 (27-24)
   Vegas line/spread: Stanford by 7 1/2
   
   
5. Who is worse, Florida International or Southern Miss?
   Team              Pre-season     Modified      Strength PR
   FIU (0-4)            #121          #125        #214 (of 752)
   @S. Miss (0-4)       #115          #118        #187 (of 752)
   
   In one corner: Southern Miss, 0-12 last year, 0-4 this year and doing worse than our pre-season #115 ranking. In the other corner: Florida International, 0-4 so far this year, projected to be the #121 team in the FBS and playing like the #125 team (dead last). Both rank below scads of lower-division teams so far in the All-Division Strength power rating. Both teams have underperformed, so since Southern Miss ranks higher and plays at home we expect the Golden Eagles' long losing streak to be snapped by beating the Golden Panthers.
   
   Pre-season Prediction: Southern Miss by 12
   Modified Prediction: Southern Miss by 16
   Strength power rating: Southern Miss by 8 (32-24)
   Vegas line/spread: Southern Miss by 17
   
   
6. Playing at home, shouldn't Auburn beat Mississippi?
   Team            Pre-season     Modified      Strength PR
   Mississippi (3-1)  #11            #15           #48
   @Auburn (3-1)      #51            #39           #26
   
   There's a big discrepancy between Ole Miss's modified pre-season ranking and their unbiased Strength ranking: are they the #15 team in the nation or just #48? Whether or not they can beat Auburn on the road will tell us which is correct. The Bulldogs started at #11 in our rankings but struggled to a 31-13 win over terrible Southeastern Missouri State, and their big win over Texas can't be considered "big" anymore. Auburn has played well this year, outperforming slightly in each game to rise to #39 (and #26 in Strength). Vegas is not convinced Auburn is the better team even at home, so I guess we're picking an upset here.
   
   Pre-season Prediction: Mississippi by 14
   Modified Prediction: Mississippi by 6
   Strength power rating: Auburn by 10 (29-19)
   Vegas line/spread: Mississippi by 3
   
   
7. Big Ten Question #1: Is Illinois the 3rd best team in the conference, or 10th best?
   Team            Pre-season     Modified      Strength PR
   Illinois (3-1)    #108            #59           #25
   @Nebraska (3-1)    #41            #44           #39
   
   In our pre-season rankings, Illinois was dead last in the Big Ten, and by quite a bit. Since then they've proven us wrong game after game, rising to #59 even with 1/3 of their rating still being determined by their pre-season gloom. Moreover, their Strength ranking of #25 suggests they could be even better still. At #59 they're still the #10 team in the Big Ten, but a #25 ranking puts them at #3 behind just Ohio State and Wisconsin. Nebraska has been a fairly solid barameter so far, ranking anywhere from #39 to #44. Both have a single loss to an undefeated Pac-12 team, Nebraska falling at home to UCLA 41-21 and Illinois losing at home to Washington 24-14. If Illinois can beat Nebraska in Lincoln then it's fairly certain they're one of the top teams in the conference. A close loss leaves things up in the air as to how the Illini fit into the conference race. Though Vegas likes the Modified ratings' prediction, looking at Illinois' games so far—even the loss to Washington—we call for a 1-point Illini shootout win to shake things up.
   
   Pre-season Prediction: Nebraska by 24
   Modified Prediction: Nebraska by 8
   Strength power rating: Illinois by 1 (43-42)
   Vegas line/spread: Nebraska by 8 1/2
   
   
8. Big Ten Question #2: Is Michigan really any good?
   Team            Pre-season     Modified      Strength PR
   Minnesota (4-1)    #63            #67           #82
   @Michigan (4-0)    #15            #28           #66
   
   Michigan is 4-0 and ranked #19 in the nation. After their first two games the Wolverines seemed to be better than our #15 ranking, but two straight near-losses (28-24 Akron at home and 24-21 UConn on the road) made them look much less fierce. Add in the fact that their "impressive" 41-30 win over Notre Dame is diminished given how the Irish have played in every other game. So in addition to slipping to #28 in our Bayesian/Modified ratings, they rank just #66 in the unbiased Strength power rating. Minnesota will provide a good foe for comparison; the Gophers have been steady in the aggregate and if they test Michigan in Ann Arbor it will be the third time an inferior foe did so. Vegas is still expecting a margin indicative of pre-season expectations, treating the Wolverines' woes as a 2-game aberration rather than a trend. We'll see what happens.
   
   Pre-season Prediction: Michigan by 18
   Modified Prediction: Michigan by 16
   Strength power rating: Michigan by 6 (34-27)
   Vegas line/spread: Michigan by 18 1/2
   
   
9. Big Ten Question #3: Could Northwestern actually be overrated?
   Team             Pre-season     Modified      Strength PR
   Ohio State (4-0)     #7             #4           #11
   @N'western (4-0)    #25            #37           #56
   
   We had high hopes for Northwestern going in, ranking them #25 and suggesting that the game in Evanston could be a trap for the Buckeyes. But the Wildcats haven't played as well as we thought they would, falling to #37 in our Modified ratings. That, and the fact that they're ranked #16 in the AP poll diminishes their chances for an upset: they're not playing well enough, and Ohio State isn't going to underestimate the 4-0 squad. If anything they might overestimate them as Northwestern might be overrated. The Strength power rating—still in its early weeks of course—puts Northwestern at #56 and predicts an easy Ohio State win. If the Wildcats give the Buckeyes enough trouble they might deserve their AP ranking, and certainly so if they get the upset. How well they can do against an elite foe will say a lot about the team's future this season. Vegas interestingly shows a subdued line.
   
   Pre-season Prediction: Ohio State by 6
   Modified Prediction: Ohio State by 19
   Strength power rating: Ohio State by 20 (51-31)
   Vegas line/spread: Ohio State by 6 1/2
   
   
10. Big Ten Question #4: Is Iowa a sleeper for the Legends division title?
    Team            Pre-season     Modified      Strength PR
    Mich St (4-1)      #37            #34           #100
    @Iowa   (4-1)      #66            #30           #40
    
    In our pre-season, Iowa was ranked #66 and favored in none of their 8 Big Ten games. Five games later, they're #30 and favored to go 6-2 in-conference, losing only to Ohio State and a close game to Wisconsin. Overall, from a 4-8 cumulative projection they now project to 8-4. Michigan State's rating hasn't changed much, but they've played some teams that have underperformed like USF and Notre Dame. The pre-season prediction was a narrow Michigan State win; the Modified prediction calls for a narrow Iowa win; and using the Strength power rating it's an Iowa rout. If the latter happens then the Hawkeyes have a good chance to get to the Big Ten title game, believe it or not.
    
    Pre-season Prediction: Michigan State by 6
    Modified Prediction: Iowa by 5 1/2
    Strength power rating: Iowa by 21 (24-3)
    Vegas line/spread: Iowa by 1

 

Heisman Race, week 5: Miller is back; are Lee, Clowney done?

Nothing startling happened in the Heisman race this week. The top four remain the same while Braxton Miller makes a big comeback. But is it already too late for him?

The race did get tighter at the top. Johnny Manziel had a good game with 2 touchdown passes and decent passing and rushing production in an A&M win. Tajh Boyd did even better with 3 TD passes and 1 rushing touchdown, topping 300 yards through the air. But that was against Wake Forest in a blowout so it evens out. For the season Manziel has bulkier stats and stays on top. Boyd's edge right now is his lack of turnovers and, most importantly, Clemson's undefeated status. If it's close at the end that will probably be the difference-maker.

While Boyd would get a huge boost from going undefeated, for the #3 and #4 quarterbacks it's probably necessary if they want to have any hope of winning. Jordan Lynch of Northern Illinois wouldn't survive a loss, and it would probably consign Teddy Bridgewater to NY-at-best status, too. Lynch's team finally had a comfortable win against Purdue (55-24) and the QB had 4 total touchdowns. Bridgewater was idle.

Braxton Miller also needs his team to go undefeated, now that he's missed several games and is way behind in stats. He essentially doubled his season's stats against Wisconsin, throwing 4 touchdown passes and rushing for 83 yards. His comeback in the big 31-24 win was important; while Kenny Guiton had great stats while Miller was out, he didn't do it against ranked teams. Miller had a great moment on the last play of the 1st half on a 4th and 7 when he hit Corey Brown for a 40-yard touchdown as time expired; it ended up being the difference in the game. Miller moves back up to #5, but he's got a mountain of stats to scale before he gets in the real thick of the race.

1. Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M (4-1; beat Arkansas 45-33)
   LW:   23-30  76.7%  261yd  2TD 0int  9rsh  59yd 6.6av 0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 100-140 71.4% 1489yd 14TD 4int 48rsh 314yd 6.5av 3TD 0fmb
2. Tajh Boyd, QB Clemson (4-0; beat Wake Forest 56-7)
   LW:   17-24  70.8%  311yd  3TD 0int 17rsh  69yd 4.1av 1TD 0fmb
   TOT:  73-114 62.2%  994yd  9TD 0int 49rsh 159yd 3.2av 4TD 0fmb
3. Jordan Lynch, QB N. Illinois (4-0; beat Purdue 55-24)
   LW:   18-25  72.0%  207yd  3TD 0int  9rsh  35yd 3.9yd 1TD 0fmb
   TOT:  81-125 64.9%  869yd 10TD 2int 77rsh 439yd 5.7av 3TD 1fmb
4. Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville (4-0; no game last week)
   LW:   DNP; no game last week
   TOT:  79-110 71.8% 1214yd 14TD 1int 12rsh  36yd 3.0av 0TD 0fmb
5. [up 1] Braxton Miller, QB Ohio State (5-0; beat Wisconsin 31-24)
   LW:   17-25  68.0%  198yd  4TD 0int 22rsh  83yd 3.8av 0TD 0fmb
   TOT:  34-49  69.4%  406yd  6TD 1int 40rsh 165yd 4.1av 0TD 0fmb
6. [up 1] Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon (4-0; beat Cal 55-16)
   LW:   11-25  44.0%  114yd  2TD 0int  6rsh  33yd 5.5av 1TD 0fmb
   TOT:  60-107 56.1% 1003yd  9TD 0int 21rsh 295yd  14av 5TD 0fmb
7. [dn 2] Marqise Lee, WR USC (3-2; lost to Arizona State 62-41)
   LW:   7rec  92yd 0TD 0fmb 0rsh  0yd 0.0av 0fmb  54retYd 0TD 0fmb
   TOT: 30rec 385yd 1TD 0fmb 5rsh  1yd 0.2av 0fmb 145retYd 0TD 1fmb
8. [new] Aaron Murray, QB Georgia (3-1; beat LSU 44-41)
   LW:   20-34  58.8%  298yd  4TD 1int  3rsh   9yd 3.0av 1TD 0fmb
   TOT:  79-116 68.1% 1338yd 11TD 3int 21rsh  20yd 1.0av 3TD 1fmb 
9. [dn 1] Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin (3-2; lost to Ohio State 31-24)
   LW:   15rsh  74yd  4.9av 0TD 0fmb; 0rec 0yd 0TD; 0retYd
   TOT:  68rsh 698yd 10.3av 7TD 0fmb; 0rec 0yd 0TD; 0retYd
10. [dn 1] Jadeveon Clowney, DE South Carolina (3-1; beat UCF 28-25)
    LW:   2 tackles 0 sacks + 0 tfl 0 pbu 0 int 0 ffmb 0 kBlock
    TOT: 12 tackles 2 sacks + 1 tfl 0 pbu 0 int 1 ffmb 0 kBlock

Also moving up a spot is Oregon's Marcus Mariota, who will continue to climb as long as Oregon keeps winning and he stays productive. His completion percentage is a bit soft at 56%, and he completed just 44% against Cal in a driving rain. His numbers were fairly low this weekend but he had 3 touchdowns and for the year his stats are excellent; his 15:0 TD:TO ratio even beats Boyd's 14:0, but Oregon has yet to play an important game.

Marqise Lee had a game of highs and lows, ending on the latter. He had one of his better games with 92 receiving yards, putting him #1 on USC's all-time list. But he had no touchdown catches again, his team lost, his coach was fired, and to add injury to insult, he was injured and may miss games. With just 1 touchdown catch on the year after 5 games and probable reduced effectiveness going forward, it's safe to say Lee is unlikely to be a factor in this year's race. It's been a while since his name was mentioned as a possible winner, but now he would need a superhuman final 8 games (USC has a 13-game schedule) just to make it to New York.

Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon had 74 yards against Ohio State in a losing effort. While averaging around 5 yards per carry against the Buckeyes is nothing shameful, a Heisman winner needs to shine in big games, not have mediocre performances in close contests. He's still averaging 10 yards per carry (as he did all last season) so he could recover, but this game will be used against him if he gets back into the fray.

Finally as usual we have Jadeveon Clowney at the bottom, falling another spot to #10. Clowney had just 2 tackles against Central Florida, and ranks 10th on the team in that stats. Defensive linemen don't normally lead the team in tackles but still, that underscores how far his candidacy has slipped. At this rate, once someone else comes along from his side of the ball he won't even be the leading token defensive candidate.

New candidate: QB, RB, WR, defense?

It was tough picking someone to add this week. Since Gordon slipped, do we need a new running back? Or a receiver to replace Lee, or another defensive player since Clowney is going nowhere? There really isn't another prominent defensive candidate at this point, so do we just add yet another quarterback?

If so, Aaron Murray of Georgia won the big game last week and did it in style, throwing 4 TD passes and beating LSU 44-41. Murray's only drawback is his first game against Clemson, where he threw no touchdown passes and had an interception.

Looking at receivers, Oregon State's Brandin Cooks has amazing stats, averaging over 10 catches and 150 yards per game, and he won a duel against Colorado's Paul Richardson last week. The Beavers are 4-1 but had a bad loss to FCS Eastern Washington in the opener. Either Cooks or QB Sean Mannion, or both, will get into the act if they win a few tough Pac-12 games.

At running back, Bishop Sankey of Washington is now the nation's leader, averaging over 150 yards per game. The Huskies face Washington next and a big game there would make him a shoo-in for consideration. But if he sinks against Stanford like Gordon did against Ohio State, he takes too big of a hit. In other words, this time we're going to make the running back earn it, and if he does well against the Cardinal in a win, he'll be in.

So we're going to yield to popular opinion and add Aaron Murray. We don't like to add playerswith a loss this early—especially quarterbacks—when there are so many undefeated teams to choose from, but Georgia is a special case, having played three top 10 teams and gone 2-1. Note that he has to be considered well below Tajh Boyd, whose Clemson team beat him head to head. That game will be a big comparison point if the two are in New York together come December.

Baylor vs. Sagarin Ratings: what gives?

Baylor is (at least according to us) the big story of the college football season as far as power ratings go. After three games it's clear they could be the best team in the nation; they also might be exposed by a team with either a decent offense or a decent defense (we think it will take both).

So far they've won three games by monster margins, but the teams they've defeated aren't anything special. They beat Wofford 69-3; Buffalo, 70-13; and Louisiana-Monroe, 70-7.

It's pretty clear their offense is great, and their defense at least pretty good. Overall, they rank extremely well in our power ratings so far. They're #2 in our modified pre-season ratings, where they're currently credited 50% for this year's performance and 50% for our pre-season ranking of #28. In the early All-Division Strength power rating, which is completely unbiased, they are #1 by a good (and unsustainable) margin.

But evaluating Baylor by their accomplishments—just by who they've beaten—you can't say they've done that much. Wofford is 2-2 in the FCS; Buffalo is 2-2, and ULM is 2-3 now. So using a BCS-style ranking which doesn't take margin of victory into account, the Bears don't fare so well. In our Success power rating they are just #26.

So the schizm we see is: Baylor should be ranked low in BCS-style ratings, and rated high in margin-of-victory-inclusive power ratings.

But here's the rub: Sagarin's ratings have the Bears just the opposite

                  RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK)  | ELO_CHESS    | PREDICTOR 
   3  Baylor A  =  89.46    3   0   54.13( 172)  |   98.96    2 |   84.50   16

Baylor is #3 in Sagarin's current rankings, with an ELO_CHESS ranking of #2, and PREDICTOR of #16. ELO_CHESS is his BCS-style rating, while PREDICTOR is based on victory margins.

The Predictor ranking we can sort of explain...almost. Baylor's schedule strength is horrible, and while their margins of victory make up for that, Sagarin diminishes the value of wide margins. And it's still early enough in the season that Baylor's pre-season value is being partially used. Even if they rank #1 in pure terms, that could be averaged with, say, a #31 start to end up around #16 (this is obviously not what Sagarin does, but the general idea is the same).

The ELO ranking of #2 is very puzzling however. Baylor hasn't beaten any good teams, yet they have climbed to #2? That might make sense if they had started at #1, but they didn't start in his top ten (they were probably started close to last year's #18 finish).

The way we see it, an ELO ranking of #16 and a Predictor ranking of #2 would make a lot of sense right now, and match what our power ratings are showing for the Bears.

It almost makes me wonder if Sagarin mis-labelled his outputs this year. What's interesting is that it's hard to tell by looking at other teams. Alabama is #1 in our Success ratings, implying that they've played the toughest schedule so far in terms of wins and losses, but they aren't #1 in Strength. Sagarin has them only #3 in ELO (Success) and #1 in Predictor (Strength). UCLA is #5 in ELO and just #18 in Predictor, where we have them about the same ranking in both Success and Strength. There aren't really any obvious teams that have played well but lost close games that should be an obvious case for disparity in the two types of ratings. We have to assume the columns are labeled correctly and that there is some other explanation.

Clearly, Sagarin's use of pre-season foundation numbers, or his technique of combining basis numbers and this year's results has caused some seemingly unusual effects for Baylor. Interestingly the language he used to always include (about the ratings not being WELL CONNECTED, and therefore BAYESIAN) is not included this year (he also seems to have removed the previous years of ratings from his site).

When the teams are all "well connected," and the ratings unbiased, Baylor might have a profile closer to ours, that is, high in Strength and mediocre in Success. Of course by then, they might have lost a game or done something else to change the relationship between the two types of rating systems.