While our pre-season rankings didn't always agree with the AP, the more we update based on actual performance the more some teams move closer to the polls. Let's not forget, these ratings aren't supposed to resemble the AP, which quickly becomes more of a "reward"-based ranking. These are meant to predict future performance while using the pre-season ratings as a base.
Stanford is a good example. The Cardinal were ranked lower on our pre-season list than the AP, but with their blowout of Washington State they finally move into our top ten at #8, up 8 this week and 11 in all since August. An example of the AP conforming to our ratings? Notre Dame, which started at #14 in the AP but only #22 in ours. The Irish fell out of the top 25 in our first Bayesian update, but only just this week drop from the AP Top 25. The Irish have underperformed in every game according to our pre-season rankings and after losing to Oklahoma they fall to #42. The Sooners are up 6 to #9 in our rankings, and up to #11 in the AP.
Clemson is one team that doesn't agree between the AP and our updated ratings. We had the Tigers fairly low at #14 and despite a big win over Georgia in week one they have lagged; they're up 6 spots this week after destroying Wake Forest 56-7 but still are only #16.
The very top of our rankings isn't quite the same, either; Oregon holds on to our #1 spot here, and AP #1 Alabama is only #3. Baylor remains at #2 (the Bears were idle this weekend) and is just #16 in the AP. AP #2 Ohio State rises a spot to #4 on our list as Texas A&M drops a couple of spots to #6 for not dominating Arkansas sufficiently to warrant a top five placing. Georgia slips a couple of spots after beating LSU by a field goal, and the Tigers are right behind at #11.
The big winner last week, surprisingly, was Utah State (3-2) who moves up 12 spots to #14 after beating San Jose State 40-12. The Aggies lost close road games to Utah and USC but have done well enough in their three wins to more than make up for it, and they're up 24 spots since the pre-season.
The big loser in the top 25 was Oklahoma State, upset by West Virginia 30-21. The Cowboys fall 12 spots to #21. That's exactly where they are in the AP this week, too. Makes you wonder if the mind of an AP voter, or at least the AP aggregate, could be successfully modelled with Bayesian updating?
Week 5 Bayesian update to pre-season 2013 ratings:
pre | Week1 | Week2 | Week3 | Week4 | Week5 | Team | wk5chg | total | Rating |
2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Oregon | 0 | +1 | 80.58 |
28 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Baylor | 0 | +26 | 80.08 |
1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | Alabama | 0 | -2 | 78.29 |
7 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 4 | Ohio State | +1 | +3 | 70.68 |
9 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 5 | Florida St | +1 | +4 | 70.65 |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | Texas A&M | -2 | -3 | 70.61 |
26 | 21 | 16 | 16 | 7 | 7 | Louisville | 0 | +19 | 68.79 |
19 | 19 | 15 | 23 | 16 | 8 | Stanford | +8 | +11 | 68.35 |
21 | 17 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 9 | Oklahoma | +6 | +12 | 67.09 |
4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 10 | Georgia | -2 | -6 | 67.03 |
18 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 11 | LSU | -1 | +7 | 66.99 |
8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 12 | Arizona St | 0 | -4 | 66.60 |
23 | 20 | 19 | 11 | 11 | 13 | UCLA | -2 | +10 | 64.83 |
38 | 43 | 40 | 29 | 26 | 14 | Utah St | +12 | +24 | 64.63 |
11 | 12 | 24 | 12 | 13 | 15 | Mississippi | -2 | -4 | 63.72 |
14 | 15 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 16 | Clemson | +6 | -2 | 63.69 |
13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 17 | South Carolina | -3 | -4 | 63.26 |
16 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 18 | Florida | +1 | -2 | 62.71 |
12 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 19 | Washington | +1 | -7 | 62.37 |
27 | 31 | 29 | 25 | 21 | 20 | Wisconsin | +1 | +7 | 62.36 |
6 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 21 | Oklahoma St | -12 | -15 | 61.74 |
30 | 29 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 22 | Arizona | -4 | +8 | 61.60 |
17 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 27 | 23 | Miami FL | +4 | -6 | 60.58 |
33 | 30 | 28 | 31 | 25 | 24 | Missouri | +1 | +9 | 60.46 |
60 | 53 | 37 | 33 | 23 | 25 | Utah | -2 | +35 | 60.35 |
50 | 42 | 33 | 27 | 24 | 26 | Texas Tech | -2 | +24 | 60.12 |
34 | 24 | 23 | 19 | 17 | 27 | Georgia Tech | -10 | +7 | 59.54 |
15 | 11 | 11 | 20 | 28 | 28 | Michigan | 0 | -13 | 59.32 |
5 | 5 | 13 | 24 | 29 | 29 | Texas | 0 | -24 | 58.63 |
66 | 64 | 66 | 59 | 38 | 30 | Iowa | +8 | +36 | 57.63 |
31 | 35 | 25 | 26 | 32 | 31 | BYU | +1 | 0 | 57.03 |
52 | 44 | 44 | 38 | 42 | 32 | Virginia Tech | +10 | +20 | 56.54 |
45 | 56 | 47 | 47 | 50 | 33 | Boise St | +17 | +12 | 55.64 |
37 | 41 | 45 | 34 | 33 | 34 | Michigan St | -1 | +3 | 55.62 |
72 | 70 | 57 | 48 | 34 | 35 | Maryland | -1 | +37 | 55.54 |
20 | 25 | 31 | 28 | 30 | 36 | Southern Cal | -6 | -16 | 55.11 |
25 | 28 | 26 | 30 | 35 | 37 | Northwestern | -2 | -12 | 54.99 |
53 | 45 | 42 | 39 | 41 | 38 | Central Florida | +3 | +15 | 54.90 |
51 | 49 | 43 | 37 | 36 | 39 | Auburn | -3 | +12 | 54.42 |
29 | 33 | 32 | 42 | 37 | 40 | Kansas St | -3 | -11 | 54.33 |
24 | 27 | 34 | 45 | 48 | 41 | TCU | +7 | -17 | 53.21 |
22 | 26 | 27 | 32 | 31 | 42 | Notre Dame | -11 | -20 | 53.21 |
55 | 51 | 50 | 51 | 44 | 43 | Penn State | +1 | +12 | 52.80 |
41 | 48 | 46 | 54 | 45 | 44 | Nebraska | +1 | -3 | 52.78 |
39 | 40 | 53 | 57 | 46 | 45 | Mississippi St | +1 | -6 | 52.11 |
62 | 61 | 65 | 53 | 47 | 46 | Syracuse | +1 | +16 | 52.05 |
10 | 23 | 30 | 35 | 43 | 47 | Oregon St | -4 | -37 | 51.76 |
61 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 64 | 48 | East Carolina | +16 | +13 | 50.89 |
69 | 54 | 48 | 58 | 52 | 49 | Bowling Green | +3 | +20 | 50.80 |
42 | 34 | 52 | 40 | 51 | 50 | Indiana | +1 | -8 | 50.72 |
58 | 50 | 49 | 50 | 53 | 51 | Marshall | +2 | +7 | 49.75 |
57 | 57 | 51 | 41 | 39 | 52 | Washington St | -13 | +5 | 49.21 |
32 | 32 | 41 | 43 | 56 | 53 | Vanderbilt | +3 | -21 | 48.78 |
43 | 46 | 39 | 46 | 49 | 54 | Tennessee | -5 | -11 | 48.64 |
46 | 38 | 58 | 49 | 54 | 55 | Cincinnati | -1 | -9 | 48.64 |
36 | 37 | 36 | 52 | 65 | 56 | Northern Illinois | +9 | -20 | 48.61 |
95 | 92 | 86 | 87 | 72 | 57 | Houston | +15 | +38 | 48.57 |
78 | 71 | 62 | 61 | 59 | 58 | Ball St | +1 | +20 | 48.46 |
108 | 103 | 76 | 67 | 69 | 59 | Illinois | +10 | +49 | 48.43 |
83 | 68 | 68 | 65 | 63 | 60 | Arkansas | +3 | +23 | 48.28 |
35 | 36 | 35 | 36 | 40 | 61 | North Carolina | -21 | -26 | 47.51 |
47 | 59 | 60 | 69 | 70 | 62 | Iowa St | +8 | -15 | 46.80 |
48 | 55 | 56 | 56 | 58 | 63 | Fresno St | -5 | -15 | 46.03 |
76 | 69 | 72 | 75 | 74 | 64 | North Carolina St | +10 | +12 | 45.63 |
40 | 39 | 38 | 44 | 55 | 65 | Rice | -10 | -25 | 45.36 |
68 | 66 | 67 | 64 | 60 | 66 | Toledo | -6 | +2 | 45.23 |
63 | 52 | 55 | 60 | 57 | 67 | Minnesota | -10 | -4 | 44.90 |
56 | 58 | 59 | 63 | 66 | 68 | Boston College | -2 | -12 | 44.73 |
74 | 87 | 81 | 76 | 67 | 69 | Colorado St | -2 | +5 | 44.42 |
64 | 72 | 64 | 66 | 68 | 70 | Kentucky | -2 | -6 | 43.77 |
82 | 85 | 87 | 80 | 80 | 71 | Pittsburgh | +9 | +11 | 43.37 |
102 | 100 | 90 | 70 | 71 | 72 | Navy | -1 | +30 | 43.30 |
65 | 77 | 78 | 68 | 73 | 73 | LA-Lafayette | 0 | -8 | 42.88 |
97 | 88 | 85 | 77 | 61 | 74 | Wyoming | -13 | +23 | 42.77 |
85 | 82 | 82 | 81 | 75 | 75 | North Texas | 0 | +10 | 42.37 |
96 | 86 | 74 | 78 | 81 | 76 | Colorado | +5 | +20 | 42.28 |
77 | 67 | 77 | 92 | 76 | 77 | Western Kentucky | -1 | 0 | 42.23 |
75 | 65 | 69 | 72 | 79 | 78 | Rutgers | +1 | -3 | 41.96 |
103 | 99 | 100 | 91 | 89 | 79 | Florida Atlantic | +10 | +24 | 41.92 |
73 | 83 | 70 | 73 | 95 | 80 | West Virginia | +15 | -7 | 41.91 |
44 | 47 | 54 | 55 | 62 | 81 | San Jose St | -19 | -37 | 40.66 |
79 | 74 | 63 | 71 | 78 | 82 | Duke | -4 | -3 | 40.35 |
71 | 63 | 71 | 74 | 77 | 83 | Virginia | -6 | -12 | 40.31 |
84 | 80 | 89 | 83 | 85 | 84 | California | +1 | 0 | 40.06 |
91 | 91 | 96 | 95 | 86 | 85 | Memphis | +1 | +6 | 39.51 |
67 | 78 | 80 | 84 | 83 | 86 | SMU | -3 | -19 | 38.98 |
49 | 76 | 84 | 85 | 82 | 87 | San Diego St | -5 | -38 | 37.95 |
90 | 90 | 92 | 86 | 91 | 88 | Kansas | +3 | +2 | 37.46 |
86 | 79 | 99 | 104 | 100 | 89 | Buffalo | +11 | -3 | 37.23 |
89 | 97 | 94 | 94 | 93 | 90 | Ohio U. | +3 | -1 | 37.19 |
109 | 109 | 106 | 99 | 98 | 91 | South Alabama | +7 | +18 | 36.89 |
105 | 102 | 103 | 100 | 107 | 92 | Tulane | +15 | +13 | 36.61 |
80 | 84 | 88 | 90 | 90 | 93 | Middle Tennessee St | -3 | -13 | 36.44 |
59 | 75 | 73 | 88 | 87 | 94 | Tulsa | -7 | -35 | 36.32 |
98 | 95 | 91 | 93 | 84 | 95 | Texas-San Antonio | -11 | +3 | 34.97 |
70 | 81 | 83 | 79 | 88 | 96 | Purdue | -8 | -26 | 34.91 |
87 | 73 | 79 | 89 | 96 | 97 | Arkansas St | -1 | -10 | 34.56 |
110 | 113 | 113 | 102 | 97 | 98 | Akron | -1 | +12 | 34.41 |
111 | 107 | 95 | 96 | 101 | 99 | Hawaii | +2 | +12 | 34.37 |
101 | 98 | 105 | 106 | 106 | 100 | Texas St. | +6 | +1 | 34.01 |
94 | 104 | 101 | 98 | 94 | 101 | Wake Forest | -7 | -7 | 33.83 |
107 | 101 | 109 | 101 | 103 | 102 | Army | +1 | +5 | 33.51 |
106 | 108 | 98 | 109 | 99 | 103 | Nevada | -4 | +3 | 33.36 |
81 | 93 | 93 | 97 | 92 | 104 | Connecticut | -12 | -23 | 33.12 |
104 | 105 | 107 | 107 | 102 | 105 | UAB | -3 | -1 | 32.02 |
88 | 96 | 102 | 105 | 109 | 106 | Kent St | +3 | -18 | 31.88 |
100 | 106 | 115 | 113 | 108 | 107 | UNLV | +1 | -7 | 30.72 |
117 | 116 | 110 | 108 | 112 | 108 | Troy | +4 | +9 | 29.16 |
112 | 112 | 114 | 111 | 110 | 109 | UTEP | +1 | +3 | 27.98 |
99 | 94 | 97 | 110 | 105 | 110 | Temple | -5 | -11 | 27.39 |
92 | 111 | 108 | 115 | 113 | 111 | South Florida | +2 | -19 | 26.33 |
116 | 110 | 111 | 112 | 117 | 112 | Air Force | +5 | +4 | 26.01 |
113 | 115 | 112 | 114 | 111 | 113 | New Mexico | -2 | 0 | 25.66 |
54 | 62 | 75 | 82 | 104 | 114 | LA-Monroe | -10 | -60 | 25.27 |
118 | 118 | 118 | 118 | 116 | 115 | Louisiana Tech | +1 | +3 | 22.84 |
93 | 89 | 104 | 103 | 114 | 116 | Western Mich. | -2 | -23 | 22.58 |
114 | 117 | 117 | 116 | 118 | 117 | Central Michigan | +1 | -3 | 21.46 |
115 | 114 | 116 | 117 | 115 | 118 | Southern Miss | -3 | -3 | 20.82 |
122 | 122 | 120 | 121 | 122 | 119 | New Mexico St | +3 | +3 | 20.18 |
125 | 124 | 123 | 122 | 120 | 120 | Massachusetts | 0 | +5 | 20.01 |
123 | 125 | 125 | 123 | 123 | 121 | Idaho | +2 | +2 | 18.66 |
119 | 119 | 119 | 119 | 119 | 122 | Miami OH | -3 | -3 | 18.37 |
120 | 120 | 121 | 120 | 121 | 123 | Eastern Michigan | -2 | -3 | 17.69 |
124 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 124 | 124 | Georgia State | 0 | 0 | 12.80 |
121 | 121 | 122 | 124 | 125 | 125 | Florida Int'l | 0 | -4 | 8.75 |
Virginia Tech's 17-10 win at Georgia Tech was enough to knock the Yellow Jackets out of the top 25, and send the Hokies up 10 spots to #32. That's 20 spots higher than they started the year, so Frank Beamer's club is set to ourperform our expectations. So is Boise State, who was docked early for the big loss to Washington but has come back, beating Southern Miss 60-7 to jump 17 spots to #33; they're now up 12 for the season.
Both East Carolina and North Carolina broke out of holding patterns suddenly. The Pirates had almost exactly matched our expectations, down just 3 places, when they upset the Tar Heels 55-31. That bounced them up 16 to #47, up 13 for the year, while UNC fall a stunning 21 spots to #61, down 26 total. Houston, on the other hand, has done better than we figured in every game, with their big 4th-quarter push to beat UTSA 59-28 moving them up 15 spots. The Cougars started the season at #95 but are #57 now.
The biggest mover this season, however, is Illinois. Beating Miami of Ohio 50-14 boosts the Illini another 10 spots to #59, 49 higher than the #108 spot we gave them in August. And that ranking is while still giving 1/3 weight to the pre-season, meaning that is probably a conservative rating.
Rice hasn't met our lofty pre-season expectations of being #40 in the nation, and after barely beating FAU on two late, lucky defensive plays 18-14, they fall a further 10 places to #65. Florida Atlantic is going the other direction, up 10 to #79 after starting at #103.
Wyoming shockingly lost to Texas State, and badly, 42-21, but even after dropping 13 spots to #74 they are still up 23 from their #97 start; the Cowboys did consistently well in their other games. San Jose State has been falling from their #44 start since day 1, and the loss to Utah State drops them a further 19 spots to #81.
Connecticut became the 2nd team to lose their coach (after USC of course) after they fell 41-12 to Buffalo to start 0-4. They're down 12 to #104, 23 spots lower than their #81 start. The worst team, according to our expectations, is still Louisiana-Monroe. The Warhawks fall another 10 spots to #114 after losing to Tulane 31-14; that's 60 (sixty!) spots lower than the #54 we thought they'd be.
Next week's Bayesian update will be the last one we will do, and the ratings will be almost completely based on this season's performance, though the foundation is still the pre-season ratings. After that, the unbiased power ratings will have a strong enough basis for comparison and will be more accurate.
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