Week 4 ratings update: Oregon #1, Baylor #2, Alabama #3

Another week, another Bayesian update to our pre-season ratings, and another surge by Baylor after another blowout by the Bears. This time they move from #4 to #2, muscling past Texas A&M and a slightly faltering Alabama to sit just below #1 Oregon, who was idle.

Baylor beat Louisiana-Monroe 70-7, a game we had pegged a 10-point win back in August. It's fair to say ULM has vastly underperformed this year so this win is pretty inflated, but 63 points is nothing to sneeze at. Baylor also sits at #1 in our unbiased All-Division Power Rating, though that's still in its early stages with 3 or 4 games played per team. So the situation with Baylor remains: uncertain, untested, but looking very good so far.

Big blowouts of weak Florida teams helped Ohio State jump 2 spots, FSU to stay even, and Louisville to jump 9 places to #7. Clearly Louisville's 72-0 win over FIU was more impressive than the other teams' similar wins over FCS schools. The Cardinals look like a bona fide top ten team so far, contrary to our (contrary) position in the pre-season.

Stanford's win over Arizona State drew the teams closer, but ASU is still 4 positions ahead as their slight comeback kept them from falling further and their other performances are stronger; they remain ahead in the unbiased power ratings, too, interestingly.

And showing that playing extremely weak opponents never does one good, Washington and Miami each fell six spots despite outsized wins. Washington beat Idaho State 56-0 and Miami crushed Savannah State 77-7, but neither lived up to the ridiculous spreads of their ranking: Washington needed to win by 74 and Miami by 84. These games can really tell you nothing unless the spreads are off by 4 touchdowns or more; it's too bad they even get scheduled.

Utah is formally looking like a top 25 team after beating BYU and jumping 10 spots to #23. The Utes' only loss was in overtime to Oregon State. But Michigan's 2nd straight scare resulted in another drop, this time 8 spots to #28 after beating UConn just 24-21.

pre- season	Week1	Week2	Week3	Week4	Team	wk4 chg	total chg	week4 rating
2	2	2	1	1	Oregon	0	+1	80.84
28	13	4	4	2	Baylor	+2	+26	80.08
1	1	1	2	3	Alabama	-1	-2	77.34
3	3	3	3	4	Texas A&M	-1	-1	73.91
7	8	6	7	5	Ohio State	+2	+2	71.78
9	9	9	6	6	Florida St	0	+3	70.77
26	21	16	16	7	Louisville	+9	+19	68.79
4	4	5	5	8	Georgia	-3	-4	68.73
6	6	8	9	9	Oklahoma St	0	-3	67.21
18	16	12	10	10	LSU	0	+8	65.29
23	20	19	11	11	UCLA	0	+12	64.83
8	7	7	8	12	Arizona St	-4	-4	64.70
11	12	24	12	13	Mississippi	-1	-2	64.67
13	14	14	13	14	South Carolina	-1	-1	64.65
21	17	20	15	15	Oklahoma	0	+6	64.20
19	19	15	23	16	Stanford	+7	+3	63.92
34	24	23	19	17	Georgia Tech	+2	+17	62.90
30	29	17	17	18	Arizona	-1	+12	62.65
16	18	18	18	19	Florida	-1	-3	62.11
12	10	10	14	20	Washington	-6	-8	61.32
27	31	29	25	21	Wisconsin	+4	+6	61.26
14	15	22	22	22	Clemson	0	-8	60.51
60	53	37	33	23	Utah	+10	+37	60.35
50	42	33	27	24	Texas Tech	+3	+26	60.12
33	30	28	31	25	Missouri	+6	+8	60.12
38	43	40	29	26	Utah St	+3	+12	59.83
17	22	21	21	27	Miami FL	-6	-10	59.52
15	11	11	20	28	Michigan	-8	-13	59.32
5	5	13	24	29	Texas	-5	-24	58.63
20	25	31	28	30	Southern Cal	-2	-10	57.01
22	26	27	32	31	Notre Dame	+1	-9	56.09
31	35	25	26	32	BYU	-6	-1	55.69
37	41	45	34	33	Michigan St	+1	+4	55.62
72	70	57	48	34	Maryland	14	+38	55.54
25	28	26	30	35	Northwestern	-5	-10	54.99
51	49	43	37	36	Auburn	+1	+15	54.42
29	33	32	42	37	Kansas St	+5	-8	54.33
66	64	66	59	38	Iowa	+21	+28	54.07
57	57	51	41	39	Washington St	+2	+18	53.65
35	36	35	36	40	North Carolina	-4	-5	53.60
53	45	42	39	41	Central Florida	-2	+12	53.51
52	44	44	38	42	Virginia Tech	-4	+10	53.19
10	23	30	35	43	Oregon St	-8	-33	52.97
55	51	50	51	44	Penn State	+7	+11	52.80
41	48	46	54	45	Nebraska	+9	-4	52.78
39	40	53	57	46	Mississippi St	+11	-7	52.11
62	61	65	53	47	Syracuse	+6	+15	52.05
24	27	34	45	48	TCU	-3	-24	51.43
43	46	39	46	49	Tennessee	-3	-6	51.23
45	56	47	47	50	Boise St	-3	-5	51.02
42	34	52	40	51	Indiana	-11	-9	50.72
69	54	48	58	52	Bowling Green	+6	+17	50.69
58	50	49	50	53	Marshall	-3	+5	49.75
46	38	58	49	54	Cincinnati	-5	-8	48.64
40	39	38	44	55	Rice	-11	-15	48.54
32	32	41	43	56	Vanderbilt	-13	-24	48.47
63	52	55	60	57	Minnesota	+3	+6	48.46
48	55	56	56	58	Fresno St	-2	-10	47.81
78	71	62	61	59	Ball St	+2	+19	47.49
68	66	67	64	60	Toledo	+4	+8	46.21
97	88	85	77	61	Wyoming	+16	+36	45.84
44	47	54	55	62	San Jose St	-7	-18	45.46
83	68	68	65	63	Arkansas	+2	+20	44.97
61	60	61	62	64	East Carolina	-2	-3	44.79
36	37	36	52	65	Northern Illinois	-13	-29	44.76
56	58	59	63	66	Boston College	-3	-10	44.61
74	87	81	76	67	Colorado St	+9	+7	44.39
64	72	64	66	68	Kentucky	-2	-4	44.37
108	103	76	67	69	Illinois	-2	+39	44.12
47	59	60	69	70	Iowa St	-1	-23	43.85
102	100	90	70	71	Navy	-1	+31	43.47
95	92	86	87	72	Houston	+15	+23	42.92
65	77	78	68	73	LA-Lafayette	-5	-8	42.88
76	69	72	75	74	North Carolina St	+1	+2	42.76
85	82	82	81	75	North Texas	+6	+10	42.37
77	67	77	92	76	Western Kentucky	+16	+1	42.05
71	63	71	74	77	Virginia	-3	-6	42.01
79	74	63	71	78	Duke	-7	+1	41.98
75	65	69	72	79	Rutgers	-7	-4	41.96
82	85	87	80	80	Pittsburgh	0	+2	41.67
96	86	74	78	81	Colorado	-3	+15	41.08
49	76	84	85	82	San Diego St	+3	-33	41.00
67	78	80	84	83	SMU	+1	-16	40.76
98	95	91	93	84	Texas-San Antonio	+9	+14	40.61
84	80	89	83	85	California	-2	-1	39.80
91	91	96	95	86	Memphis	+9	+5	39.51
59	75	73	88	87	Tulsa	+1	-28	39.27
70	81	83	79	88	Purdue	-9	-18	38.76
103	99	100	91	89	Florida Atlantic	+2	+14	38.74
80	84	88	90	90	Middle Tennessee St	0	-10	37.78
90	90	92	86	91	Kansas	-5	-1	37.46
81	93	93	97	92	Connecticut	+5	-11	37.39
89	97	94	94	93	Ohio U.	+1	-4	37.19
94	104	101	98	94	Wake Forest	+4	0	37.01
73	83	70	73	95	West Virginia	-22	-22	36.45
87	73	79	89	96	Arkansas St	-7	-9	34.90
110	113	113	102	97	Akron	+5	+13	34.52
109	109	106	99	98	South Alabama	+1	+11	34.30
106	108	98	109	99	Nevada	+10	+7	34.29
86	79	99	104	100	Buffalo	+4	-14	32.95
111	107	95	96	101	Hawaii	-5	+10	32.59
104	105	107	107	102	UAB	+5	+2	32.33
107	101	109	101	103	Army	-2	+4	31.23
54	62	75	82	104	LA-Monroe	-22	-50	31.20
99	94	97	110	105	Temple	+5	-6	31.09
101	98	105	106	106	Texas St.	0	-5	30.94
105	102	103	100	107	Tulane	-7	-2	30.68
100	106	115	113	108	UNLV	+5	-8	28.81
88	96	102	105	109	Kent St	-4	-21	28.75
112	112	114	111	110	UTEP	+1	+2	28.01
113	115	112	114	111	New Mexico	+3	+2	27.58
117	116	110	108	112	Troy	-4	+5	27.53
92	111	108	115	113	South Florida	+2	-21	27.38
93	89	104	103	114	Western Mich.	-11	-21	25.71
115	114	116	117	115	Southern Miss	+2	0	25.44
118	118	118	118	116	Louisiana Tech	+2	+2	25.12
116	110	111	112	117	Air Force	-5	-1	25.07
114	117	117	116	118	Central Michigan	-2	-4	24.34
119	119	119	119	119	Miami OH	0	0	22.69
125	124	123	122	120	Massachusetts	+2	+5	20.01
120	120	121	120	121	Eastern Michigan	-1	-1	17.69
122	122	120	121	122	New Mexico St	-1	0	17.13
123	125	125	123	123	Idaho	0	0	14.96
124	123	124	125	124	Georgia State	+1	0	12.80
121	121	122	124	125	Florida Int'l	-1	-4	8.75

Maryland, Iowa big winners

Maryland crushed West Virginia 37-0, a fantastic showing on defense while the Terps' offense is looking pretty good too. They move up 14 spots to #34 and have moved up every single week since starting at #72 in the pre-season. Iowa posted perhaps the most stunning blowout of the week, beating Western Michigan 59-3 with defense and special teams contributing 28 points. The Hawks were 12 point favorites in the pre-season and 17 point favorites by our calculations at game time. Iowa rockets up 21 spots to #38 and have definitely exceeded expectations after a rocky start. The losers, West Virginia and Western Michigan, fall 22 and 11 spots to #95 and #114 respectively, so when pre-season bias is removed these games might not look as impressive. But winning big is never a negative.

Mississippi State's 62-7 win over Troy was good for 11 spots to #46, still below their pre-season #39 ranking however. The 2-2 Bulldogs have a week off before facing LSU.

Indiana has been all over the map this year. Starting at #42, they jumped to #34 after dominating Indiana State 73-35, fell to #52 after losing to Navy, jumped back to #40 after destroying Bowling Green 42-10, and now drop to #51 after losing 42-28 to Missouri. It's possible that Navy and Missouri are really good teams—something hinted at by the unbiased power rating this week—and that the Hoosiers are still a really good team. But time will tell.

Rice and Vanderbilt also underperformed and fell; the Owls lost to Houston 31-26 and fell 11 spots to #55, while Vandy's tepid 24-7 win over UMass dropped them 13 to #56. The equal and opposite reaction held true as Houston jumped 15 spots to #72, and Massachusetts gained for the 4th straight week, rising to #120 (they started dead last—#125—in the pre-season).

Wyoming is another team that has moved up every week, showing we had them underrated in the pre-season for sure. This Saturday they beat Air Force 56-23, a contest we saw as a 4-point win in August. The Cowboys moved up 15 spots, making it a total of 36—from #97 to #61. Meanwhile Northern Illinois has dropped every time they've set foot on the field. The opening win at Iowa (30-27) went about as expected, but the next two games have been terrible, and they narrowly beat Eastern Illinois 43-39 in their first home game. This drops the Huskies 13 spots to #65, 29 lower than they started. Now, it's almost certain that Eastern Illinois is a lot better than they were last year, as they dominated San Diego State earlier in the year. But that doesn't explain NIU's troubled with Idaho the week before.

Western Kentucky jumps 16 spots to #76 after beating Morgan State 58-17. The Hilltoppers are another up-and-down team, moving up or down by double digits each week; they're now one spot away from where they started (#77). They're 2-2 but unlike Indiana—the other consistently volatile team—they rank very low in the current unbiased power rating, suggesting their better performances are due to their opponents' deficiencies. Nevada beat Hawaii 31-9 and moved up 10 spots to #99, up 7 from where they started in August.

ULM, FIU fall on hard times...

Louisiana-Monroe lost 70-7 to Baylor, which either means Baylor is fantastic or ULM is terrible. Both could be true, as Baylor has exceeded our expectations by more than any other team while the Warhawks have underperformed worse than any team, falling 50 spots total to #104 since the pre-season. They're 17 points per game worse than we figured, and since they've underperformed each week by a significant amount, there is probably farther to fall yet before we find their true ranking.

Florida International has the dubious honor of taking over our #125 spot, and it isn't even close. No one expected them to beat Louisville but they lost as if they were Savannah State. They're now rated 4 points worse than #124 Georgia State, a team than went 1-10 in the FCS last year.