Week 3 Bayesian Ratings Update: Oregon vs. Alabama on collision course

Three weeks in and what we guessed would happen at the beginning of the season seems more likely than ever: Alabama vs. Oregon in the BCS championship game.

Alabama looks more likely than ever as they just dispatched their toughest foe, outlasting Texas A&M on the road, 49-42. And Oregon has beaten two BCS-conference foes by an average score of 59-12 the last two weeks, enough to push them—just barely—to the #1 spot in our Week 3 Bayesian Ratings update.

Oregon and Alabama have already distanced themselves from the pack, 5 points ahead of Texas A&M and about 9 points away from #4 Baylor, who has played two games against poor competition. #5 Georgia has already lost a game.

Who else could be a challenger? Florida State moves up to #6 after destroying Nevada 62-7, and Ohio State is doing pretty well even without Braxton Miller lately but hasn't looked national-title-worthy. #8 Arizona State probably should have lost to Wisconsin last week and #9 Oklahoma State has been slightly weaker than expected. LSU rounds out the top ten and has gained each week.

UCLA had a great 2nd half vs. Nebraska and moves from #19 to #11, while Mississippi ran away from Texas 44-23 and bounced back up to #12. On the downside Michigan's near-loss to Akron dumped the Wolverines to #20, down 9, while Stanford's unimpressive showing against Army dropped them from #15 to #23. Texas (1-2), our pre-season #5 team, fell another 11 spots to #24, but needless to say the Longhorns are a very longshot to stay in the top 25 even one more week the way they're playing.

Bayesian ratings update for week 3

Pre-ssn Rank	Week1 Rank	Week2 Rank	Week3 Rank	Team	Week 3 Change	Total Change	Week 3 Rating
2	2	2	1	Oregon	+1	+1	80.84
1	1	1	2	Alabama	-1	-1	80.25
3	3	3	3	Texas A&M	0	0	74.92
28	13	4	4	Baylor	0	+24	71.35
4	4	5	5	Georgia	0	-1	70.71
9	9	9	6	Florida St	+3	+3	70.46
7	8	6	7	Ohio State	-1	0	69.23
8	7	7	8	Arizona St	-1	0	67.34
6	6	8	9	Oklahoma St	-1	-3	67.21
18	16	12	10	LSU	+2	+8	66.10
23	20	19	11	UCLA	+8	+12	64.73
11	12	24	12	Mississippi	+12	-1	64.67
13	14	14	13	South Carolina	+1	0	64.65
12	10	10	14	Washington	-4	-2	64.21
21	17	20	15	Oklahoma	+5	+6	64.20
26	21	16	16	Louisville	0	+10	63.74
30	29	17	17	Arizona	0	+13	62.65
16	18	18	18	Florida	0	-2	62.31
34	24	23	19	Georgia Tech	+4	+15	62.17
15	11	11	20	Michigan	-9	-5	61.72
17	22	21	21	Miami FL	0	-4	61.71
14	15	22	22	Clemson	0	-8	61.43
19	19	15	23	Stanford	-8	-4	61.28
5	5	13	24	Texas	-11	-19	59.94
27	31	29	25	Wisconsin	+4	+2	59.27
31	35	25	26	BYU	-1	+5	59.22
50	42	33	27	Texas Tech	+6	+23	58.81
20	25	31	28	Southern Cal	+3	-8	58.43
38	43	40	29	Utah St	+11	+9	58.41
25	28	26	30	Northwestern	-4	-5	58.13
33	30	28	31	Missouri	-3	+2	57.54
22	26	27	32	Notre Dame	-5	-10	57.15
60	53	37	33	Utah	+4	+27	56.83
37	41	45	34	Michigan St	+11	+3	54.56
10	23	30	35	Oregon St	-5	-25	54.55
35	36	35	36	North Carolina	-1	-1	54.33
51	49	43	37	Auburn	+6	+14	53.60
52	44	44	38	Virginia Tech	+6	+14	53.54
53	45	42	39	Central Florida	+3	+14	53.51
42	34	52	40	Indiana	+12	+2	53.29
57	57	51	41	Washington St	+10	+16	53.18
29	33	32	42	Kansas St	-10	-13	53.03
32	32	41	43	Vanderbilt	-2	-11	52.71
40	39	38	44	Rice	-6	-4	52.17
24	27	34	45	TCU	-11	-21	51.43
43	46	39	46	Tennessee	-7	-3	51.03
45	56	47	47	Boise St	0	-2	50.70
72	70	57	48	Maryland	+9	+24	49.99
46	38	58	49	Cincinnati	+9	-3	49.79
58	50	49	50	Marshall	-1	+8	49.40
55	51	50	51	Penn State	-1	+4	49.27
36	37	36	52	Northern Illinois	-16	-16	49.08
62	61	65	53	Syracuse	+12	+9	48.92
41	48	46	54	Nebraska	-8	-13	48.89
44	47	54	55	San Jose St	-1	-11	48.86
48	55	56	56	Fresno St	0	-8	48.13
39	40	53	57	Mississippi St	-4	-18	47.85
69	54	48	58	Bowling Green	-10	+11	47.34
66	64	66	59	Iowa	+7	+7	46.60
63	52	55	60	Minnesota	-5	+3	45.06
78	71	62	61	Ball St	+1	+17	44.94
61	60	61	62	East Carolina	-1	-1	44.79
56	58	59	63	Boston College	-4	-7	44.61
68	66	67	64	Toledo	+3	+4	44.57
83	68	68	65	Arkansas	+3	+18	44.41
64	72	64	66	Kentucky	-2	-2	44.37
108	103	76	67	Illinois	+9	+41	44.12
65	77	78	68	LA-Lafayette	+10	-3	43.86
47	59	60	69	Iowa St	-9	-22	43.85
102	100	90	70	Navy	+20	+32	43.47
79	74	63	71	Duke	-8	+8	43.15
75	65	69	72	Rutgers	-3	+3	42.52
73	83	70	73	West Virginia	-3	0	42.00
71	63	71	74	Virginia	-3	-3	41.93
76	69	72	75	North Carolina St	-3	+1	41.83
74	87	81	76	Colorado St	+5	-2	41.48
97	88	85	77	Wyoming	+8	+20	41.10
96	86	74	78	Colorado	-4	+18	41.08
70	81	83	79	Purdue	+4	-9	40.75
82	85	87	80	Pittsburgh	+7	+2	40.50
85	82	82	81	North Texas	+1	+4	40.39
54	62	75	82	LA-Monroe	-7	-28	39.93
84	80	89	83	California	+6	+1	39.80
67	78	80	84	SMU	-4	-17	39.75
49	76	84	85	San Diego St	-1	-36	39.41
90	90	92	86	Kansas	+6	+4	39.38
95	92	86	87	Houston	-1	+8	39.29
59	75	73	88	Tulsa	-15	-29	39.27
87	73	79	89	Arkansas St	-10	-2	38.65
80	84	88	90	Middle Tennessee St	-2	-10	38.39
103	99	100	91	Florida Atlantic	+9	+12	38.13
77	67	77	92	Western Kentucky	-15	-15	38.09
98	95	91	93	Texas-San Antonio	-2	+5	37.98
89	97	94	94	Ohio U.	0	-5	37.54
91	91	96	95	Memphis	+1	-4	35.76
111	107	95	96	Hawaii	-1	+15	35.28
81	93	93	97	Connecticut	-4	-16	34.98
94	104	101	98	Wake Forest	+3	-4	34.62
109	109	106	99	South Alabama	+7	+10	34.30
105	102	103	100	Tulane	+3	+5	33.81
107	101	109	101	Army	+8	+6	33.61
110	113	113	102	Akron	+11	+8	33.54
93	89	104	103	Western Mich.	+1	-10	33.17
86	79	99	104	Buffalo	-5	-18	32.95
88	96	102	105	Kent St	-3	-17	32.29
101	98	105	106	Texas St.	-1	-5	32.26
104	105	107	107	UAB	0	-3	31.97
117	116	110	108	Troy	+2	+9	31.79
106	108	98	109	Nevada	-11	-3	31.60
99	94	97	110	Temple	-13	-11	31.09
112	112	114	111	UTEP	+3	+1	30.64
116	110	111	112	Air Force	-1	+4	29.81
100	106	115	113	UNLV	+2	-13	27.86
113	115	112	114	New Mexico	-2	-1	27.58
92	111	108	115	South Florida	-7	-23	27.38
114	117	117	116	Central Michigan	+1	-2	25.97
115	114	116	117	Southern Miss	-1	-2	25.44
118	118	118	118	Louisiana Tech	0	0	23.21
119	119	119	119	Miami OH	0	0	21.53
120	120	121	120	Eastern Michigan	+1	0	20.23
122	122	120	121	New Mexico St	-1	+1	17.22
125	124	123	122	Massachusetts	+1	+3	15.77
123	125	125	123	Idaho	+2	0	15.42
121	121	122	124	Florida Int'l	-2	-3	13.80
124	123	124	125	Georgia State	-1	-1	11.04

Utah State beat Weber State 70-6, enough to push them up 11 to #29. Michigan State finally had a good game and rose 11 spots as well after beating Youngstown State 55-17; now they're at #34, three spots higher than they started the year. Indiana pasted a solid Bowling Green team 42-10, sending the Hoosiers up 12 to #40 and the Falcons down 10 to #58. And Washington State followed up their upset of USC with a strong 48-10 win over Southern Utah which put the Cougars up 10 spots to #41.

Kansas State fell 10 spots to #42 due to a tepid 37-7 win over #122 Massachusetts. Another Big Twelve team, #45 TCU has underperformed every week and they fell to Texas Tech 20-10 on Thursday, sending them down 11 spots. And perhaps the biggest disappointment last week was Northern Illinois who struggled mightily to beat Idaho 45-35. The Huskies fell from #36 to #52.

Probably last week's most impressive team relative to pre-season expectations was Navy who beat Delaware 51-7; that looked like a 2-touchdown win at most back in August, but Navy climbs 20 spots to a respectable #70 ranking and they should be headed higher based on the way their other victim, Indiana, is playing. Lousiana-Lafayette also outperformed by beating Nicholls State 70-7; the Cajuns jump ten spots to #68.

Five other big-time underperformers in week 3: Tulsa was throttled 51-20 by Oklahoma and fell from #73 to #88; Arkansas State fell from #79 to #89 despite beating Troy 41-34; Western Kentucky lost to lowly South Alabama 31-24 and dropped 15 to #92; Nevada was supposed to lose to FSU but not by 55 so they fall 11 spots to #109; and Temple lost to Fordham 30-29, dropping them 11 to #110.

Among the lower teams there was one winner, even though they didn't win their game—Akron, who lost at Michigan 28-24. The Zips jump 11 spots to #102.