Week 2 Bayesian Rating Mods: Baylor up to #4

Could the Baylor Bears be a top five team? It looks that way based on our pre-season evaluation and two weeks' worth of football games—games in which Baylor destroyed admittedly poor opponents by a total score of 139-16. From our pre-season #28 ranking the Bears now rank #4 after adjusting for the two wins. The top three—Alabama, Oregon, and Texas A&M—remain unchanged since the pre-season.

Saturday's result for Baylor was a 70-13 disposal of Buffalo; before that the Bears beat FCS team Wofford 69-3. The obvious question is, how will they look against real competition? Wofford actually had a decent defense last year so Baylor's offense looks for real, and the Bears' own defense—last year's major weakness—seems to have improved a lot. Only time will tell, and it may take a while before we get an answer: the Bears have a bye week, then play Lousiana-Monroe, then have another bye week before facing West Virginia and Kansas.

Texas, also in the Big Twelve, was this weekend's big disappointment, falling from their pre-season #5 spot to #13 after losing to BYU, 40-21. That adjustment won't be nearly enough if they're as bad against the run as they were against the Cougars. BYU jumped to #25 from #35, but they're just 1-1 as they lost their opener to Virginia somehow.

Miami inched up just one spot to #21 after beating Florida 21-16 while the Gators held steady at #18. The reason for the lack of movement is that the 5-point win for the Hurricanes is exactly what our pre-season ratings expected, so there is no real adjustment. Instead, the big movers in the top 25 were Arizona, who jumped to #17 from #29 after dominating UNLV 58-13, and Mississippi, who fell 12 spots after beating Southeastern Missouri State 31-13, a weak result for the #12 team in the nation. Louisville had a 2nd strong week and moved up another 5 spots to #16.

Bayesian Modification of Pre-season Ratings, Week 2

pre- season	Week1 Rank	Week2 Rank	Team	Week 1 Change	Week 2 Change	Total Change	pre- Season	Week 1 Rating	Week 2 Rating
1	1	1	Alabama	0	0	0	81.29	79.50	79.50
2	2	2	Oregon	0	0	0	76.84	75.15	78.25
3	3	3	Texas A&M	0	0	0	75.28	74.67	75.67
28	13	4	Baylor	+15	+9	+24	57.48	65.07	71.35
4	4	5	Georgia	0	-1	-1	72.12	70.89	70.71
7	8	6	Ohio State	-1	+2	+1	68.77	67.66	70.08
8	7	7	Arizona St	+1	0	+1	67.66	67.66	69.09
6	6	8	Oklahoma St	0	-2	-2	69.79	70.07	68.47
9	9	9	Florida St	0	0	0	66.52	67.44	67.44
12	10	10	Washington	+2	0	+2	64.60	67.39	67.39
15	11	11	Michigan	+4	0	+4	62.87	65.36	66.68
18	16	12	LSU	+2	+4	+6	62.40	64.15	65.25
5	5	13	Texas	0	-8	-8	71.82	70.38	65.19
13	14	14	South Carolina	-1	0	-1	63.55	64.63	64.81
19	19	15	Stanford	0	+4	+4	62.31	62.31	63.31
26	21	16	Louisville	+5	+5	+10	58.85	61.92	63.01
30	29	17	Arizona	+1	+12	+13	56.41	58.00	62.51
16	18	18	Florida	-2	0	-2	62.64	62.31	62.31
23	20	19	UCLA	+3	+1	+4	60.76	62.02	62.02
21	17	20	Oklahoma	+4	-3	+1	61.02	64.15	61.98
17	22	21	Miami FL	-5	+1	-4	62.45	61.71	61.71
14	15	22	Clemson	-1	-7	-8	63.11	64.34	61.43
34	24	23	Georgia Tech	+10	+1	+11	55.21	60.13	60.13
11	12	24	Mississippi	-1	-12	-13	65.46	65.25	59.42
31	35	25	BYU	-4	+10	+6	56.14	54.02	59.22
25	28	26	Northwestern	-3	+2	-1	58.99	58.25	59.00
22	26	27	Notre Dame	-4	-1	-5	60.85	59.68	58.36
33	30	28	Missouri	+3	+2	+5	55.99	57.71	57.54
27	31	29	Wisconsin	-4	+2	-2	58.67	57.50	57.52
10	23	30	Oregon St	-13	-7	-20	66.48	60.89	57.46
20	25	31	Southern Cal	-5	-6	-11	61.54	60.05	56.62
29	33	32	Kansas St	-4	+1	-3	57.47	55.69	56.50
50	42	33	Texas Tech	+8	+9	+17	49.41	52.29	55.86
24	27	34	TCU	-3	-7	-10	60.57	58.82	54.38
35	36	35	North Carolina	-1	+1	0	55.06	53.98	54.33
36	37	36	Northern Illinois	-1	+1	0	54.49	53.96	53.96
60	53	37	Utah	+7	+16	+23	46.35	47.90	53.92
40	39	38	Rice	+1	+1	+2	53.10	53.71	53.71
43	46	39	Tennessee	-3	+7	+4	50.94	50.09	53.63
38	43	40	Utah St	-5	+3	-2	53.49	51.95	53.55
32	32	41	Vanderbilt	0	-9	-9	56.08	56.29	52.55
53	45	42	Central Florida	+8	+3	+11	48.71	50.25	52.50
51	49	43	Auburn	+2	+6	+8	48.79	49.44	52.44
52	44	44	Virginia Tech	+8	0	+8	48.73	50.52	52.05
37	41	45	Michigan St	-4	-4	-8	53.99	52.83	51.96
41	48	46	Nebraska	-7	+2	-5	52.40	49.53	51.60
45	56	47	Boise St	-11	+9	-2	50.14	47.35	51.37
69	54	48	Bowling Green	+15	+6	+21	43.25	47.77	50.81
58	50	49	Marshall	+8	+1	+9	46.94	49.09	50.68
55	51	50	Penn State	+4	+1	+5	48.31	48.93	50.28
57	57	51	Washington St	0	+6	+6	47.41	46.76	50.20
42	34	52	Indiana	+8	-18	-10	50.96	54.23	49.83
39	40	53	Mississippi St	-1	-13	-14	53.45	53.17	49.01
44	47	54	San Jose St	-3	-7	-10	50.78	49.86	48.86
63	52	55	Minnesota	+11	-3	+8	45.84	48.52	48.25
48	55	56	Fresno St	-7	-1	-8	49.55	47.75	48.13
72	70	57	Maryland	+2	+13	+15	42.70	43.73	48.06
46	38	58	Cincinnati	+8	-20	-12	49.81	53.94	46.64
56	58	59	Boston College	-2	-1	-3	47.94	46.69	46.42
47	59	60	Iowa St	-12	-1	-13	49.62	46.38	46.38
61	60	61	East Carolina	+1	-1	0	46.01	45.95	46.28
78	71	62	Ball St	+7	+9	+16	41.17	43.44	45.76
79	74	63	Duke	+5	+11	+16	40.75	42.70	45.20
64	72	64	Kentucky	-8	+8	0	45.70	43.39	45.09
62	61	65	Syracuse	+1	-4	-3	46.00	45.39	44.64
66	64	66	Iowa	+2	-2	0	43.96	44.49	44.08
68	66	67	Toledo	+2	-1	+1	43.51	43.83	44.00
83	68	68	Arkansas	+15	0	+15	39.96	43.78	43.69
75	65	69	Rutgers	+10	-4	+6	42.28	44.08	43.49
73	83	70	West Virginia	-10	+13	+3	42.52	39.90	42.07
71	63	71	Virginia	+8	-8	0	42.90	45.03	41.93
76	69	72	North Carolina St	+7	-3	+4	42.05	43.74	41.83
59	75	73	Tulsa	-16	+2	-14	46.83	42.32	41.49
96	86	74	Colorado	+10	+12	+22	35.72	39.16	41.08
54	62	75	LA-Monroe	-8	-13	-21	48.40	45.27	41.04
108	103	76	Illinois	+5	+27	+32	32.02	33.64	40.94
77	67	77	Western Kentucky	+10	-10	0	41.52	43.83	40.28
65	77	78	LA-Lafayette	-12	-1	-13	44.86	41.03	40.22
87	73	79	Arkansas St	+14	-6	+8	39.51	43.08	40.08
67	78	80	SMU	-11	-2	-13	43.75	40.87	39.75
74	87	81	Colorado St	-13	+6	-7	42.34	38.91	39.74
85	82	82	North Texas	+3	0	+3	39.75	40.15	39.57
70	81	83	Purdue	-11	-2	-13	43.10	40.30	39.54
49	76	84	San Diego St	-27	-8	-35	49.49	41.84	39.41
97	88	85	Wyoming	+9	+3	+12	35.72	38.59	39.33
95	92	86	Houston	+3	+6	+9	36.33	37.37	39.29
82	85	87	Pittsburgh	-3	-2	-5	40.20	39.28	39.28
80	84	88	Middle Tennessee St	-4	-4	-8	40.66	39.52	39.17
84	80	89	California	+4	-9	-5	39.78	40.52	38.94
102	100	90	Navy	+2	+10	+12	34.06	34.06	38.46
98	95	91	Texas-San Antonio	+3	+4	+7	35.72	36.51	38.11
90	90	92	Kansas	0	-2	-2	38.33	38.33	37.83
81	93	93	Connecticut	-12	0	-12	40.57	36.92	36.92
89	97	94	Ohio U.	-8	+3	-5	38.74	35.67	36.26
111	107	95	Hawaii	+4	+12	+16	30.37	31.86	35.28
91	91	96	Memphis	0	-5	-5	37.47	37.47	34.97
99	94	97	Temple	+5	-3	+2	35.38	36.54	34.61
106	108	98	Nevada	-2	+10	+8	32.73	31.47	34.61
86	79	99	Buffalo	+7	-20	-13	39.65	40.77	34.49
103	99	100	Florida Atlantic	+4	-1	+3	33.50	34.25	33.91
94	104	101	Wake Forest	-10	+3	-7	36.68	33.24	33.51
88	96	102	Kent St	-8	-6	-14	39.01	36.18	33.14
105	102	103	Tulane	+3	-1	+2	33.31	33.88	32.73
93	89	104	Western Mich.	+4	-15	-11	37.23	38.40	32.30
101	98	105	Texas St.	+3	-7	-4	34.81	34.97	32.26
109	109	106	South Alabama	0	+3	+3	31.88	30.95	32.11
104	105	107	UAB	-1	-2	-3	33.48	33.06	31.97
92	111	108	South Florida	-19	+3	-16	37.28	30.73	31.59
107	101	109	Army	+6	-8	-2	32.63	33.91	31.58
117	116	110	Troy	+1	+6	+7	27.46	27.88	30.36
116	110	111	Air Force	+6	-1	+5	27.62	30.74	29.14
113	115	112	New Mexico	-2	+3	+1	29.01	28.21	28.80
110	113	113	Akron	-3	0	-3	30.47	28.92	28.58
112	112	114	UTEP	0	-2	-2	29.04	29.04	28.45
100	106	115	UNLV	-6	-9	-15	35.00	32.32	27.81
115	114	116	Southern Miss	+1	-2	-1	28.39	28.23	26.17
114	117	117	Central Michigan	-3	0	-3	28.80	26.32	26.02
118	118	118	Louisiana Tech	0	0	0	27.34	25.65	24.30
119	119	119	Miami OH	0	0	0	25.39	23.23	21.53
122	122	120	New Mexico St	0	+2	+2	17.72	19.15	19.42
120	120	121	Eastern Michigan	0	-1	-1	21.94	20.61	19.26
121	121	122	Florida Int'l	0	-1	-1	20.68	19.65	17.40
125	124	123	Massachusetts	+1	+1	+2	10.11	11.29	12.29
124	123	124	Georgia State	+1	-1	0	11.62	12.66	10.97
123	125	125	Idaho	-2	0	-2	11.69	11.29	10.54

Utah flew up 16 spots to #37 after beating Weber State 70-7; the Utes are now up 23 spots total. Indiana, however, fell 18 spots to #52 after losing 41-35 to Navy, who started at #102 and are now at #90 after the win. Mississippi State took a 13-spot dive to #53 despite a 51-7 win over Alcorn State; some FCS opponents are so bad that even an all-out blowout isn't enough to look good.

Maryland jumped 13 spots to #57; the Terps beat Old Dominion—a good FCS team—47-10. Duke was up 11 to #63 after handling Memphis 28-14, and West Virginia leapt 13 after only losing 16-7 to Oklahoma. Last week the Mountaineers fell 10 spots for a "bad win" now they jump for a "good loss." Colorado had their 2nd big outperformance beating Central Arkansas 38-24; the Buffs move from #86 to #74 (they started the year at a lowly #96 but are proving themselves better than that). And Louisiana-Monroe won 48-10 but still underperformed and dropped 13 spots; their opponent, Grambling, was 1-10 last year in the FCS.

The biggest surprise of the weekend? Easily Illinois 45, Cincinnati 17. The Illini jumped from #103 to #76 and the Bearcats fell from #38 to #58. Note how Cincy is still 18 spots ahead of Illinois; the Bayesian results make a wide allowance for chance or fluke results, and a 65-spot gap is hard to close no matter the final score. Cincinnati looked good last weekend against Purdue so maybe the Illini are for real.

One week after jumping 10 spots, Western Kentucky fell 10 spots as Tennessee clubbed them 52-20; now they're right back where they started the pre-season, at #77. Hawaii gained 12 spots by playing avoiding a blowout at Oregon State, losing just 33-14, but that's probably more due to Oregon State being overrated in our pre-season. The Beavers fell to #30.

Nevada jumped 10 to #98 by handling UC Davis with relative ease, 36-7, while Buffalo's destruction by Baylor dropped them 20 spots to #99. And in possibly this week's worst performance, Western Michigan lost to Nicholls State, 27-23, and fell 15 spots to #104.