Most Impressive / Least Impressive Performances from Week One: Baylor, San Diego State

What did we learn in week one so far?

• Never treat the FCS lightly
• The top teams were all a bit overrated

Seven FCS teams upset FBS opponents (in all, 8 FCS teams beat FBS teams but Samford's win over brand-new FBS Georgia State wasn't an upset).

And none of our top ten teams really exceeded expectations, with two teams (Arizona State and Florida State) left to play. Only Oklahoma State did slightly better than expected, with the entire top five falling short of justifying their lofty ratings.

Which teams exceeded our expectations the most?

1. Baylor (beat Wofford, 69-3). Wofford is no FCS slouch: they're ranked #5 in the nation there, and Baylor just demolished them. One game—especially against a lower-division opponent—doesn't say everything, but it at least suggests the Bears have to be paid attention to as a Big Twelve contender. We expected a 3-touchdown win from Baylor.
2. Georgia Tech (beat Elon, 70-0). Elon isn't ranked in the FCS, and indeed they were only 3-8 last year. But the Yellow Jackets answered some questions on both offense and defense with their shutout Saturday. We might have expected a 40-point win but a 70-point shutout shows the team might be Coastal division champs for real this year.
3. Bowling Green (beat Tulsa, 34-7). Playing at Bowling Green, we thought this was a complete tossup, way too close to call. The Falcons made it a route, taking a 34-0 lead before Tulsa got on the board. This might be just as much about the Hurricane, so as usual we will wait until next week before drawing conclusions, but Bowling Green has to be counted among the top MAC contenders.
4. Cincinnati (beat Purdue, 42-7). A comfortable Cincy win was expected, but not this comfortable. Again, maybe Purdue is just that bad, but if the Bearcats keep playing like this the Louisville has a real challenger in the American Athletic.
5. Arkansas (beat UL-Lafayette, 34-14). Our pre-season rankings weren't kind to the Razorbacks, but the question was, how much of last year's bad performance was due to "intangibles" such as coaching and poor attitude? Some of that was answered on Saturday as Arkansas pounded a very good Louisiana Lafayette team. It appears that Arkansas' 2012 season may be shown to be a fluke, rather than a proper basis for projecting the future.

Honorable mention: Arkansas State (beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 62-11), Indiana (beat Indiana State 73-35), Oklahoma (beat UL-Monroe 34-0), Air Force (beat Colgate 38-13), Texas Tech (beat SMU 41-23)

Which teams underperformed the worst?

1. San Diego State (lost to Eastern Illinois, 40-19). This was bad, really bad. Eastern Illinois was 7-5 last year in the FCS and ranked 23rd there, but the Aztecs shouldn't have lost to them, especially at home and especially not by three touchdowns. We were expecting another decent season for SDSU, but now have to reevaluate.
2. South Florida (lost to McNeese State, 53-21). Things just went from bad to worse for the Bulls. McNeese State scored 31 points in the 2nd quarter en route to a 32-point win. We didn't expect the Bulls to dominate the Cowboys (we had them winning by 8 points), but a collapse like this spells trouble. The victors are only in the "others receiving votes" portion of the FCS pre-season poll but that should change.
3. Oregon State (lost to Eastern Washington, 49-46). Well, our pre-season top 10 just took a huge hit. The Beavers clearly have a major problem on defense, even if it was the #3 FCS team and their now-superstar quarterback doing the damage. Eastern Washington is a major challenger in the FCS and Oregon State has to regroup.
4. Tulsa (lost to Bowling Green, 34-7). The Golden Hurricane should have been competitive in this game and they weren't. Is Bowling Green just that good or is Tulsa in trouble?
5. Louisiana-Lafayette (lost to Arkansas, 34-14). It's hard to fault the Cajuns for this one, as Arkansas was a moving target in terms of quality level. Still, even by the oddmakers they got beat worse than expected. It will be a while before we know the truth about this team since they play Kansas State and Nicholls State the next 2 games.

Dishonorable mention: Connecticut (lost to Towson 33-18), Wake Forest (beat Presbyterian 31-7), Iowa State (lost to Northern Iowa 28-20), Louisiana-Monroe (lost to Oklahoma 34-0), SMU (lost to Texas Tech 41-23).

Poor Wake Forest, can't get any respect for a 24-point win, but then again Presbyterian was ranked 370th in the nation last year.

Now, another question: Which teams were purely the most impressive—regardless of expectations—and looked like the best teams this weekend?

1. Baylor (beat Wofford, 69-3). The Bears get the gold star here, too, as their performance was far and away the best. If all you had to go by is week one's games, Baylor is a national title contender. Next week is Buffalo, so we can compare how they do vs. Ohio State's 40-20 win.
2. Georgia Tech (beat Elon, 70-0). Pretty much the perfect game, but against an imperfect foe. Still, it's a #1-worthy win. The Wreck play at Duke next week which should give a better assessment of the team.
3. Washington (beat Boise State, 38-6). The last time a team did this to Boise State was Georgia in 2005, and those Bulldogs finished 10-3. We ranked Washington #12 but they played like a potential #1 team—and we rank Boise fairly low (#45) compared to others. The Huskies play Illinois and Idaho State next so we won't learn much until Arizona on the 28th—and Stanford on October 5th.
4. Oklahoma (beat Louisiana-Monroe, 34-0). The Sooners often stumble in their first game but they came roaring out of the gate with this shutout win. Maybe everyone talking about how this wasn't their year put a chip on their shoulder? If they keep playing like this then they are a legit BCS title contender. West Virginia and Tulsa are next, then Notre Dame on the 28th.
5. Michigan (beat Central Michigan, 59-9). A great start for the Wolverines but we'll find out a lot more next week when they take on Notre Dame.

Honorable mention: Cincinnati (beat Purdue 42-7), LSU (beat TCU 37-27), Texas A&M (beat Rice 52-31), Oklahoma State (beat Mississippi State 21-3), Alabama (beat Virginia Tech 35-10).

Yes, Alabama played only like the #10 team in the nation yesterday. Which is within range of where the #1 team is expected to play, so if it was an off-day—or Virginia Tech is better than we think—the Tide aren't in any danger.

The worst: Which teams looked like the bottom of the barrel in the FBS:

1. South Florida (lost to McNeese State, 53-21). This loss made USF not only look like the worst FBS team, but they played worse than the average team—for all divisions combined. They would have been in trouble against most Division II teams, and maybe some in Division III.
2. San Diego State (lost to Eastern Illinois, 40-19). Almost as bad as USF but not quite.
3. Idaho (lost to North Texas, 40-6). We ranked Idaho #123 and they lived up to that this weekend.
4. Miami (Ohio) (lost to Marshall 52-14). The Redhawks held on for a little while but in the end they looked every bit as bad as our pre-season #119 ranking would indicate.
5. Central Michigan (lost to Michigan 59-9). When I saw an earlier score report from this game I thought 42-6 was the final, but it got worse for the Chippewas.

Dishonorable mention: Eastern Michigan (beat Howard 34-24), Florida International (lost to Maryland 43-10), Wake Forest (beat Presbyterian 31-7), Massachusetts (lost to Wisconsin 45-0), Louisiana Tech (lost to NC State 40-14).

All ten of the teams above played like they are worse than Georgia State, the brand-newest FBS team who went 1-10 in the FCS last year. Georgia State lost to FCS Samford 31-21, but that was actually better than any of the teams above did. For perhaps this week only, the Panthers are not in the bottom 10.