Based on our pre-season rankings, Alabama will end the season at #1 before the bowl games. That's no surprise.
We do feel, however, that Oregon will end up at #2 in the BCS standing, ahead of Ohio State, even if both teams finish undefeated, despite starting at #3 to Ohio State's #2. The reasons are: 1) Oregon playes more tough teams and will be ahead in the computers, 2) They will probably be more impressive in their wins, which might mean they pass the Buckeyes in the USA and Harris polls, and 3) Ohio State's Big Ten championship game should be against Michigan, a team they play in the last game of the season, making it far less impressive of a win. Oregon might play Arizona State, another team we have undefeated going in.
Obviously using game-by-game favorites ends up with too many undfeated teams and this will change as the season progresses. Using cumulative odds there would be NO undefeated teams; here we have six teams undefeated going into the bowls: Alabama, Oregon, and Ohio State, as well as Texas, Louisville, and Northern Illinois. The Longhorns have no Big Twelve title game to boost their status and no reason or opportunity to break into the top two unless other teams lose; Louisville's schedule is too soft for them to seriously challenge for the title game unless they are the sole unbeaten team (and we rank them only #26 pre-season anyway); and Northern Illinois has an even easier schedule and lower pre-season ranking, so if they go unbeaten they would go to a BCS bowl, but not the BCS bowl under any circumstances.
Rnk Team Rec AP USA
1. Alabama 13-0 1 1
2. Oregon 13-0 3 3
3. Ohio State 13-0 2 2
4. Texas 12-0 15 15
5. Louisville 12-0 9 9
6. Georgia 12-1 5 5
7. Texas A&M 11-1 7 6
8. South Carolina 11-1 6 7
9. Arizona St 12-1 30 32
10. Oklahoma St 11-1 13 14
11. Northern Illinois 13-0 35 36
12. Clemson 11-2 8 8
13. Florida St 11-1 11 12
14. Michigan 11-2 17 17
15. San Jose St 12-1 NR 39
16. Oregon St 10-2 25 25
17. Miami FL 11-2 29 27
18. Rice 12-1 NR NR
19. Notre Dame 9-3 14 11
20. Oklahoma 9-3 16 16
21. Southern Cal 10-3 24 24
22. Stanford 8-4 4 4
23. Wisconsin 10-2 23 23
24. Cincinnati 11-1 39 NR
25. Mississippi 9-3 36 33
At #6-8 we have 1-loss SEC teams Georgia, Texas A&M, and South Carolina, the first two losing only to Alabama, South Carolina losing only to Georgia. Arizona State loses only to Oregon in the Pac-12 title game; and #10 Oklahoma State falls only to Texas.
After Northern Illinois at #11, Clemson wins the ACC crown, edging Florida State earlier in the year, but loses to two SEC teams in non-conference battles. Michigan's only two losses are to Ohio State, back-to-back at the end of the year.
At #15, San Jose State could go unbeaten other than a loss to Stanford, while #16 Oregon State loses late games to ASU and Oregon. #17 Miami loses only to Florida State, then to Clemson in the ACC title game.
Rice at #18 is our shock surprise team, unrated in either poll, so it could be a longshot. We have them losing to Texas A&M in the opener (badly) but running the table after that. They don't have a tough schedule and will be digging themselves out of a 0-1 hole so even 12 wins won't get them very high up the charts. It should get them past 3-loss Oklahoma and Notre Dame, and 4-loss Stanford who starts the year at #4 in both polls. All three of those teams play very tough schedules and have tossup-game losses so things could be different if they win the key games. The Irish play both Oklahoma and Stanford, winning the former but losing the latter.
USC should do fairly well but also plays a very tough schedule. Wisconsin, Cincinnati, and Mississippi round out our projection, with the Bearcats playing a very easy schedule that won't be looked upon favorably by the computers, and losing at the end of the season to Louisville. Mississippi is our #11 pre-season team but plays Texas in the non-conference and we have losses to Alabama and Texas A&M as well.
We look forward to some interesting revisions as the season progresses.
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