SportsRatings: College Football

2013 Pre-season Rankings: #25 Northwestern Wildcats

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Northwestern Wildcats  (Big Ten #3; Legends #2)

#25	2012 Results	AP #17 USA #16	Strength:#29  Success:#21  Overall:#28
		Record: 10-3	Bowl: Beat Mississippi St. 34-20 (Gator)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #22 | USA #22 | Lindy's #28 | Athlon #24 | Steele #32
		Record: 9-3	Bowl: Capital One (Eligibility odds: 99%)

Northwestern can build on last year's success with an even better team.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #42 (raw) #27 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #23 (adjusted)

Kain Colter essentially provides an extra starting quarterback and running back to the team, as well as a backup receiver.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #111 (raw) #104 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #33
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #90 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #40

Trevor Siemian (1,312 yards, 6 TDs, 3 int) is the passer and Kain Colter (872 yards, 8 TDs, 4 int) is the runner; that's not too much of a simplification. Colter was also the #6 receiver with 169 yards (466 in 2011), the 5th of six players back with over 100 receiving yards (Christian Jones was #1 with 412). The offensive line might be a bit weaker but protection wasn't too bad last year. Overall the passing game should be more productive this season.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #19 (raw) #14 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #12 (adj.)

Venric Mark (1,366 yards, 12 TDs) and QB Kain Colter (894 yards, 12 TDs) led a strong running game and with both back it should be just as good. Brandon Vitabile and Jack Konopka return to the offensive line, but three other starters are lost so the ground game might not make the top ten.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #33    Pass Defense  per-game: #101   Per-attempt: #35
Defense 7 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #29 (raw) #43 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #41	'12 picks: #47
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #34 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #36	'13 picks: #28

Northwestern had an impressive defense last year in contrast to some years where the offense won by getting in shootouts with the opponent. The defensive line has two starters back including sacks king Tyler Scott (9 sacks). At linebacker David Nwabuisi (7.5 tackles for loss) is gone but #1 tackler Damien Proby (112 tackles) returns with Chi Chi Ariguzo (7.5 tackles for loss). The secondary has three starters back including Ibraheim Campbell (12 pass breakups). A bit stronger in every area, the defense should once again pull its weight rather than play 2nd fiddle to the offense.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker Jeff Budzien (19 of 20 field goals) and punter Brandon Williams (39.9 average) are back as seniors.
• Return Game:  Venric Mark had two touchdown returns last year, both on punts where he carried an amazing 18.7 average, barely lower than his kickoff return average of 19.8. He's back to do it again.
• Turnovers projection:  Not much difference on the whole, though we see more interceptions on defense.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #52          2012 Recruiting Rank: #55
Northwestern is rarely going to have an incredible recruiting class; these last two are about as good as fans can expect. They rank in the lower half of the Big Ten, but not near the bottom. Pat Fitzgerald has taken the Wildcats to an incredible five straight bowl games but last year was the first win (and the team's first since 1948) after many very, very close calls (including two overtime losses). The team's rallying point this year is "5:03", the total amount of time Northwestern trailed, combined, in their three losses last year.

2012 Recap 
Northwestern kicked off with narrow wins over two teams that ended up being pretty decent, 7-5 Syracuse (42-41) and 8-5 Vanderbilt (23-13). Pretty soon they were 5-0, just like the 2010 and 2008 teams were before their first loss. They fell to Penn State 39-28, Nebraska by 1 (29-28), and Michigan in overtime (38-31), with wins over Minnesota and Iowa between, to stand 7-3. They won their last two games with style: on the road at Michigan State 23-20, and at home over Illinois 50-14. The big win, though, was in the bowl game, and it was long overdue as they handled Mississippi State 34-20.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Northwestern #79 and projected a 5-7 year, but we knew that was wrong—Northwestern often confounds our expectations—so we laid out a "best-case" scenario whereby the Wildcats went 8-4. Of course Northwestern surpassed that, too, going 9-3 in the regular season.

2013 Outlook

Northwestern 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	@	California	85%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	Syracuse	85%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Western Michigan	95%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Maine	98%	W
10/5	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	35%	L
10/12	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	42%	L
10/19	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	85%	W
10/26	Sat	@	*Iowa	76%	W
11/2	Sat	@	*Nebraska	58%	W
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	49%	L
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	70%	W
11/30	Sat	@	*Illinois	93%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99%

The Wildcats kick off the year in California, and they should win that game and three more in their home stand: Syracuse, Western Michigan, and Maine each get easier than the last. Then the biggest game of the year in Evanston when Ohio State comes to town. The Wildcats may have a better chance of beating the Buckeyes than anyone this year but it's hard to think the program is ready to pull off that kind of an upset. The trip to Wisconsin looks like their 2nd loss.

Then they should start winning again: Minnesota, Iowa, even Nebraska on the road, before the 2nd big home game: Michigan, and that's a tossup in our book. The 'Cats can beat Michigan State, too, and Illinois ends the season. A 9-3 finish would duplicate last year's result but against a much harder schedule.

Northwestern is an inherently unpredictable team; whether they are good or not they tend to play up to (or down to) their competition. So in a year where we think they'll be good they're probably vulnerable to being upset. But they'll still be able to upset teams, and any upsets they get this year will be big ones. If the Wildcats are the #3 Big Ten team, assuming two BCS bowl teams from the conference, they'll go to the Capital One Bowl and face an SEC team, perhaps Georgia.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #26 Louisville Cardinals

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Louisville Cardinals  (American #1)

#26	2012 Results	AP #13 USA #13	Strength:#52  Success:#11  Overall:#31
		Record: 11-2	Bowl: Beat Florida 33-23 (Sugar)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #9 | USA #9 | Lindy's #10 | Athlon #10 | Steele #19
		Record: 10-2	Bowl: Fiesta (Eligibility odds: > 99%)

We think Louisville will be a lot better this year...so why are they just borderline top 25? The Cardinals finished #52 in Strength last year, so this is actually a huge upgrade. And we fully expect them to be in the top 25, maybe the top ten; their schedule in the American Athletic Conference is soft enough that they're almost cinch to repeat in a BCS bowl.

Offense 5 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #54 (raw) #41 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #26 (adjusted)

Teddy Bridgewater leads the Cardinal offense to higher heights and a surprise incoming transfer at running back is an added bonus.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #24 (raw) #26 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #77
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #11 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #82

Buzz about Teddy Bridgewater (3,716 yards, 27 TDs, 8 int) and his NFL potential has reached a fever pitch, but he still has one season left here before playing on Sundays. Last year's passing game was nearly top 25 level and this year's should be nearly top ten level given Bridgewater's return with three of Louisville's top four receivers. #1 DeVante Parker (744 yards, 10 TDs) is back with Damian Copeland (628 yards) and #4 Eli Rogers (505) while #3 Andrell Smith (536) departs. As long as Bridgewater stays healthy all is good.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #105 (raw) #94 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #76 (adj.)

Louisville's ground game doesn't get much notice, which is fair enough, but they did have a couple of productive backs in Jeremy Wright (824 yards, 10 TDs) and Senorise Perry (705, 11). Wright is gone but Perry is back and Dominique Brown (533 yards in 2011) returns from redshirting last year. Perry has the starting job but they also acquired ex-Auburn star Michael Dyer who had two 1,000-yard seasons with the Tigers. Suddenly the backfield is loaded and teams will have to take the running threat seriously. The offensive line loses two important starters but Jamon Brown, John Miller, and Jake Smith, all juniors, return.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #46    Pass Defense  per-game: #32   Per-attempt: #41
Defense 9 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #34 (raw) #56 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #70	'12 picks: #65
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #24 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #38	'13 picks: #47

Louisville's defense wasn't all that great once you account for their schedule; even holding Florida to 23 was not that impressive. But they should go from average to top 25 level this year as nearly everyone is back. The defensive line returns 4 starters. Sack leaders Lorenzo Mauldin (4.5 sacks) and Marcus Smith (4 sacks) are back; in fact, all 22 of the team's sacks returns o look for a much more fearsome pass rush in 2013. At linebacker the team's #1 tackler, Preston Brown (109 tackles) returns. The secondary loses Adrian Bushell (13 pass breakups) but Calvin Pryor (100 tackles) is among 3 starters back.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker John Wallace (16 of 21 FG) and punter Ryan Johnson (39.4 ave) are back.
• Return Game:  CB Adrian Bushell averaged 19.6 yards per kickoff return and Kai Dominguez 4.7 on punts. Bushell is gone and WR Corbin Lamb and true freshman James Quick may be added to the mix to try and juice the numbers a bit.
• Turnovers projection:  The defense should reel in a few more interceptions than last year's 11, but fumble recovery will probably be less fortunate than last year when they fumbled just 2 fewer times than opponents but ended up +8.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #49          2012 Recruiting Rank: #40
This year's group ranks probably #2 in the American Athletic Conference, but it's still not the caliber needed to compete at the highest level year in and year out. Louisville is ranked in the top 10 in the pre-season AP and Coaches poll and other programs with similar recruiting (Iowa, for example) have always dipped back out after achieving that mark. Charlie Strong is in his 4th year here and had a breakthrough season in 2012; signs are good that next year he may deliver a top 25 class.

2012 Recap 
Louisville's schedule turned out to be even easier than expected in 2012. Southern Miss wasn't supposed to be 0-12, and South Florida 3-9; Louisville won those games by a total of 6 points. They beat FIU by just 7 and survived overtime against Cincinnati to stay unbeaten. In some ways Syracuse "exposed" the 9-0 Cardinals winning 45-26, and 5-7 UConn beat them the next week and their BCS dream almost died. But when push came to shove and the Cardinals had to win at Rutgers they made it happen, beating the Knights 20-17. The one truly great moment of the season came in the Sugar Bowl where they jumped all over Florida, winning 33-23. It's what people remember about their season—not the mediocre play that preceded it.

Last year's prediction: Louisville was touted as a breakthrough team in the pre-season last year and we disagreed, saying they were roughly an average team, and ranked them #53. We were right—they finished #52 in our Strength rating. But they had an incredible level of success (#11 in our Success rankings) and we projected them to be 7-5 and go to the Compass Bowl. We didn't drink the Kool-Aid and we should have at least taken a sip.

2013 Outlook

Louisville 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Ohio	93%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	Eastern Kentucky	97%	W
9/14	Sat	@	Kentucky	72%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Florida International	99%	W
10/5	Sat	@	*Temple	89%	W
10/10	Thu	vs.	*Rutgers	89%	W
10/18	Fri	vs.	*UCF	80%	W
10/26	Sat	@	*South Florida	87%	W
11/8	Fri	@	*Connecticut	82%	W
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Houston	95%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Memphis	94%	W
12/5	Thu	@	*Cincinnati	60%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 16%

This year, once again we are refusing the Kool-Aid that everyone is serving up, ranking the team lower than almost anyone. But it's a major step up from where we consider them to be last year, and the proof in the pudding is that we favor them to win every single game this year.

In fact, it's hard to find a game that they might not win. Cincinnati on the road in December looks like the toughest game. Certainly Eastern Kentucky and Memphis aren't threats. FIU, Temple, South Florida, and Houston don't look too daunting, but maybe some of those will have rebound years and play better. Ohio and Rutgers were good last year but the Cardinals get them at home. That leaves Kentucky (2-10 last year), Central Florida (at home), and UConn (5-7) as the potential "trap" games. Most teams would take that.

All added up the Cardinals should be 10-2, and 11-1 is even a more likely result according to the numbers. Going 12-0 is a solid 1 in 6 chance, and bowl eligibility is a foregone conclusion. We expect the Cards to win the new AAC and go to a BCS Bowl. Louisville might end up in the Fiesta Bowl against Texas or the Sugar Bowl against Texas A&M.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #27 Wisconsin Badgers

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Wisconsin Badgers  (Big Ten #4; Leaders #2)

#27	2012 Results	AP #35 USA #30	Strength:#18  Success:#33  Overall:#19
		Record: 8-6	Bowl: Lost to Stanford 20-14 (Rose)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #23 | USA #23 | Lindy's #26 | Athlon #19 | Steele #24
		Record: 8-4	Bowl: Outback (Eligibility odds: 99%)

With a new head coach, Wisconsin tries to make it four Rose Bowls in a row.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #61 (raw) #35 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #39 (adjusted)

Montee Ball leaves as the all-time touchdown leader in NCAA history and 2nd only to Ron Dayne in rushing for Wisconsin.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #116 (raw) #111 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #60
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #84 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #84

Wisconsin struggled at quarterback last year between Joel Stave (1,104 yards, 6 TDs, 3 int), Curt Phillips (540 yards, 5 TDs, 2 int) and the original starter, NC State transfer Danny O'Brien (523, 3:1). Stave ended up being the best and will start this year; Phillips will back him up; and O'Brien transferred. The receiver situation is better this year with the top seven pass-catchers back led by Jared Abbrederis (837 yards, 5 TDs). More consistency should lead to better numbers, but Wisconsin won't become a passing team overnight.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #13 (raw) #10 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #28 (adj.)

The running game in the early part of the season was even worse than the QB play, especially because it was Wisconsin; the Badgers couldn't run the ball against Northern Iowa or Oregon State (35 rushing yards against the Beavers). They fired their offensive line coach and eventually things improved: they had 56 yards on the ground against Nebraska in the first meeting, and 539 in the rematch in the Big Ten title game. Montee Ball (1,830 yards, 22 TDs) again led the way, and his off-season concussion probably had some effect on his early game performances. James White was 2nd with 806 (12 TDs) and Melvin Gordon had 621 with a stunning 10.0 average. Ball is gone but the other two are back. The offensive line returns starters Ryan Groy, Rob Havenstein, and Kyle Costigan and should be essentially as strong. White and Gordon are both great but Ball was a workhorse and touchdown machine. New coach Anderson likes to run the ball but not as much as Wisconsin; he'll inevitably increase passing's share of the reps a bit, so we see a drop. If Gordon comes close to maintaining his ypc and gets a few hundred reps, I will take that back.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #18    Pass Defense  per-game: #15   Per-attempt: #12
Defense 6 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #13 (raw) #13 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #47	'12 picks: #106
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #8 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #37	'13 picks: #100

It sounds like there are going to be a lot of changes on the defense this year from new defensive coordinator Dave Aranda. Last year they were a 4-3, now they're going 3-4 but sometimes will show 5-2-4. In any case, three defensive line starters are back, all seniors, which works well for the 3-4. Interestingly the line's sacks leader is backup Tyler Dippel (5 sacks in 20 tackles). At linebacker top tackler Mike Taylor (123 tackles, 12 tackles for loss) is gone but two starters are back including #2 tackler Chris Borland (104 tackles) while Brendan Kelly (5 sacks) moves into one of the open slots. The secondary is fairly depleted by the loss of three starters; Marcus Cromartie and Devin Smith combined for 25 pass breakups. Dezmen Southward (8 tackles for loss) returns at free safety. The front seven—however it's configured—looks to be stronger while the secondary will probably slip a bit, but overall the D should be just as strong, maybe top ten quality.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Drew Meyer (41.5 average) is back as is kicker Kyle French (10 of 16 FG); the latter is being pushed in camp by sophomore Jack Russell (0 of 2 last year).
• Return Game:  Jared Abbrederis (6.5 average on punts last year) may handle both types of kicks again this year, as will Kenzel Doe (27.9 on kickoffs, 12.4 on punts). Doe had a touchdown punt return last season, and Abbrederis had one in 2011.
• Turnovers projection:  We see hardly any difference from last year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #45          2012 Recruiting Rank: #87
Wisconsin had a tiny class last year so Gary Anderson didn't have the normal transition-year decline as he pulls in a class that ranks in the top half of the Big Ten. RB Corey Clement from New Jersey is a consensus blue chip; another top recruit, QB Tanner McEvoy, was robbed in Madison when he was drunk. First Montee Ball, now this...who knew Madison was such a dangerous place?

2012 Recap
Wisconsin's season followed the trajectory of their running game. Through the first 5 games it didn't work, and they struggled to beatNorthern Iowa, lost to Oregon State 10-7 points, needed Utah State to miss a game-winning field goal to win 16-14, had to hold off UTEP 37-26 at home, and couldn't hold a 17-point lead at Nebraska losing 30-27. Beating 2-10 Illinois 31-14 wasn't all that impressive, but Ball averaged 6 yards per carry, a sign that he was getting it back. When he did at Purdue, the entire running back stable came with him and they had 467 against the Boilermakers, 337 vs. Minnesota, 564 at Indiana, and 539 against Nebraska—483 more than they managed 2 months earlier. Stanford's defense handled the Badger running game and the Cardinal won, 20-14, leaving the Badgers 8-6.

Last year's prediction: We overrated the Badgers significantly last year, putting them in the top ten and expecting a 10-2 record. The AP and coaches had them #12, so at least we had strength in numbers.

2013 Outlook

Wisconsin 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Massachusetts	99%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	Tennessee Tech	100%	W
9/14	Sat	@	Arizona State	22%	L
9/21	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	88%	W
9/28	Sat	@	*Ohio State	20%	L
10/12	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	58%	W
10/19	Sat	@	*Illinois	93%	W
11/2	Sat	@	*Iowa	76%	W
11/9	Sat	vs.	BYU	65%	W
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	76%	W
11/23	Sat	@	*Minnesota	72%	W
11/30	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	81%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 99%

Wisconsin gets two games to ease themselves into their new offensive and defensive schemes, something they could have used last year. UMass and 3-8 Tennessee Tech will put up no fight. Then they travel into Pac-12 territory again and hope for a better result from Arizona State than they got from Oregon State. They should beat Purdue at home but another tough road trip follows to Ohio State. Three Big Ten games follow, then BYU at home, and three more conference games; Wisconsin could win them all, with Northwestern and BYU at home probably the toughest obstacles.

That gives them 10 wins game-by-game, and almost 8.5 cumulative wins. The "mode" is 9-3. In other words a pretty typical Wisconsin year: always bowl-worthy, often double-digit wins, but never quite national title caliber. We have the Badgers finishing #4 in the Big Ten which would send them to the Outback Bowl against the #4 SEC team (assuming 2 BCS teams from each conference), and that could be Mississippi this year.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #29 Kansas State Wildcats

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Kansas State Wildcats  (Big Twelve #6/5)

#29	2012 Results	AP #12 USA #11	Strength:#4  Success:#12  Overall:#7
		Record: 11-2	Bowl: Lost to Oregon 35-17 (Fiesta)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #31 | USA #26 | Lindy's #36 | Athlon #31 | Steele #33
		Record: 7-5	Bowl: Car Care (Eligibility odds: 92%)

Kansas State won last year because of Colin Klein and a staunch defense; both are gone in 2013.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #11 (raw) #9 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #17 (adjusted)

Collin Klein's absence hits hard but a strong offensive line helps mitigate the damage.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #92 (raw) #92 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #23
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #104 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #8

Collin Klein (2,641 yards, 16 TDs, 9 int) wasn't known for his passing but was passable. Backup Daniel Sams (6 of 8 for 55 yards as a freshman) is back but JUCO Jake Waters was a slim favorite to take over and he was recently announced as the starter. Leading receiver Chris Harper (857 yards) is also gone but Tyler Lockett (687) and Tramaine Thompson (526) are both back. The offensive line returns nearly everyone so protection should be excellent (14 sacks last year), but we see the passing game continuing to play 2nd fiddle.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #34 (raw) #35 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #31 (adj.)

While QB Klein (920 yards, 23 TDs) got all the attention—and deservedly so—John Hubert (947 yards, 15 TDs) led the team in rushing and he's back. Of the two other players topping 200 yards one was backup QB Daniel Sams (235 yards). Without Klein the rushing totals from the QB position will fall but both Sams and Waters can run, too. The offensive line will help things greatly as all five starters are back. Star center B.J. Finney joins seniors Cornelius Lucas, Keenan Taylor, and Tavon Rooks and soph Cody Whitehair. Behind that line Hubert should have a great year and rushing totals could increase.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #9    Pass Defense  per-game: #30   Per-attempt: #20
Defense 2 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #30 (raw) #10 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #6	'12 picks: #9
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #30 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #47	'13 picks: #33

With only 2 starters back, look for an across-the-board drop in Kansas State's defensive ratings. Losing four starters from the D-line including Adam Davis (7.5 sacks) and Meshak Williams (10.5 sacks) means the top-ten pass rush (32 sacks) might become a just-above-average pass rush. At linebacker top tackler Arthur Brown (100 tackles) is gone. The secondary returns two starters including Ty Zimmerman who had 5 interceptions, but they lose Allen Chapman and Nigel Malone, both of whom had 5 picks. Look for the team's top-10 adjusted interception rating (18 picks) to fall, too. Bill Snyder always fills the holes with great JUCO players so the defense will be good (similar to 2 years ago maybe), but not top ten in preventing scoring.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Departing kicker Anthony Cantele (19 of 23 FG) will be replaced by his brother, Jack; punter Ryan Doerr (41.0 average) is gone, too, and taking his place will be Ethan Hammes or Mark Krauss.
• Return Game:  Tyler Lockett (32.8 average) scored on two kickoff returns, and Tramaine Thompson (19.8 average on punts) took a punt back for a score last year. Both are back.
• Turnovers projection:  Kansas State probably takes a big hit here compared to last year. They were lucky on fumbles and that might not be the case again. The new QBs could throw more picks than Klein, but mainly the defense loses so much of its big-play talent that we can't see them matching last year's 18 picks. All of this adds up to several points per game downgrade.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #54          2012 Recruiting Rank: #117
Last year's class suffered extreme attrition (DNQ, greyshirting, etc) and ended up at the bottom of the Big Ten. This year's is a much more impressive group, and of course last year's greyshirts count toward 2013 as they join this year. So far we haven't heard about much attrition from this group yet, so we'll see. Meanwhile Bill Snyder's legend continues to grow; if he pulls off another 10+ win season they'll have to rename the town after him.

2012 Recap 
The wins just kept rolling in for Kansas State in 2012. Beating Miami 52-13 was the first sign that the team hadn't lost a step. Beating Oklahoma in Norman was the first sign that they'd be in the mix for a BCS championship. They dismantled a trio of pass-happy teams (West Virginia, Texas Tech, and OK State) by a combined 154-59, but a 52-24 meltdown against Baylor ruined their national title hopes. They did make it to the Fiesta Bowl but were defeated by Oregon 35-17.

Last year's prediction: Like everyone else, we thought the Wildcats would come back down to earth and finish 7-5, though we still ranked them #22.

2013 Outlook

Kansas State 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	North Dakota St.	68%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Lafayette	84%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Massachusetts	99%	W
9/21	Sat	@	*Texas	13%	L
10/5	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	16%	L
10/12	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	59%	W
10/26	Sat	vs.	*West Virginia	88%	W
11/2	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	76%	W
11/9	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	61%	W
11/16	Sat	vs.	*TCU	51%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	48%	L
11/30	Sat	@	*Kansas	84%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 92%

Once again, like everyone else, we expect the Wildcats to come back down to earth, but we see the chance for another great season in the schedule. The cumulative estimate (expected value) for Kansas State's season by our odds is 7-5, very close to 8-4 and in fact the "mode" or single most likely outcome is 8-4 according to the top bar chart. And game-by-game you can easily make a case for 9 or 10 wins.

North Dakota State is about the toughest non-FBS team you can schedule and the Bison are expected to threepeat as FCS champs this year. If they get past that they face a tough Louisiana-Lafayette that will compete for the Sun Belt title. UMass is a breather compared to those two.

But then it's right into the Big Twelve fray against Texas and Oklahoma State, and after those games the Wildcats should be 3-2. And the final seven games are all winnable but could contain several losses, too. Baylor at home is tough but seen as a win; West Virginia and Iowa State should be wins; Texas Tech is another possible loss but the Wildcats are favored. TCU and Oklahoma at home are both tossups. Kansas should be a victory.

So even as we expect a drop to 7-5/8-4, a 10-2 run isn't out of the question and would continue the Synder II-era tradition of exceeding expectations. There are a lot of games the Wildcats could lose, too, and finish worse than 6-6. But that's only a 1 in 10 chance. An 8-4 season is a more reasonable guess for this team. If they finish 5th in the Big Twelve (we have them beating Baylor, so they could be considered ahead of them) they'd presumably go to the Meineke Car Care Bowl and face the #7 Big Ten team (assuming both conferences have 2 BCS bowl) which could be Nebraska or Indiana.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #28 Baylor Bears

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Baylor Bears  (Big Twelve #5/6)

#28	2012 Results	AP #26 USA #28	Strength:#16  Success:#25  Overall:#17
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Beat UCLA 49-26 (Holiday)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #27 | USA #29 | Lindy's #19 | Athlon #36 | Steele #25
		Record: 7-5	Bowl: Pinstripe (Eligibility odds: 90%)

Art Briles hopes to maintain a winning program at Baylor, and it looks like he will succeed.

Offense 5 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #5 (raw) #4 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #18 (adjusted)

Without Nick Florence and Terrance Williams the passing game will slide, but the ground game keeps the offense at a high level.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #4 (raw) #5 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #24
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #43 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #30

Last year we expected the passing game, #4 under RGIII, to stay in the top 10 and instead it remained in the top 5 under Nick Florence (4,309 yards, 33 TDs, 13 int). This year is different, however, as Florence had started almost an entire season previously and Bryce Petty (97 yards, 1:0 last year) has 14 career attempts. The team also loses top receiver Terrance Williams (1,832 yards, 12 TDs) and #3 Lanear Sampson (646 yards, 6 TDs). They do have Tevin Reece (957, 9) back along with Levi Norwood (487) so there's a good base. Look for a period of adjustment but still a well above-average passing game.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #14 (raw) #8 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #9 (adj.)

Controversy has followed Lache Seastrunk (1,012 yards, 7 TDs) all his career and he invited some by promising to win the Heisman this year. It's not impossible, as he really came on at the end of the year and averaged 7.7 yards per carry. Glasco Martin (889 yards, 15 TDs) provides the counterpunch. ex-QB Florence added 568 (10 TDs) and Jared Salubi, also gone, had 464. The offensive line returns three starters: Cyril Richardson, Spencer Drango, and Troy Baker. Baker will miss the first three games so the team might get off to a slow start offensively. Seastrunk probably won't win the Heisman but he'll probably have a Heisman-like season, and with Martin a senior the Baylor ground game will be just as strong as last year.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #66    Pass Defense  per-game: #123   Per-attempt: #56
Defense 7 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #114 (raw) #80 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #80	'12 picks: #13
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #68 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #52	'13 picks: #9

Baylor's pass defense was truly porous last year on a per-game basis, even after correcting for the pass-happy teams they played. But interestingly on a per-play basis it wasn't that bad. The rushing defense was just average; the two starters back on the D-line include Chris McAllister (6 sacks). Both linebackers return to the 4-2-5, and they were the team's top tacklers, Bryce Hagar (124 tackles) and Eddie Lackey (104 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss). The secondary has three starters back including Ahmad Dixon (#3 tackler w/102) and Joe Williams (12 pass breakups). The defense is going to resemble last year's model—vulnerable to big plays, but lots of interceptions—but with a better pass rush and a step up overall.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker Aaron Jones (16 of 27 FGs last year) and punter Spencer Roth (43.8 average) are back.
• Return Game:  Wide receivers Levi Norwood (10.4 punt return average) and Antwan Goodley (22.6 on kickoffs) are both back.
• Turnovers projection:  Naturally with so much passing going on, we worry about the new quarterbacks potentially having considerably more picks than Florence last year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #34          2012 Recruiting Rank: #41
Another pretty decent class for Art Briles, ranking in the middle of the pack for the Big Twelve. WR Robbie Rhodes of Fort Worth is probably the prize catch and he could break into the starting lineup as early as this year.

2012 Recap 
Baylor won three straight to kick off the season but allowing 42 points to ULM was a warning. They lost four straight after that, giving up 70 to West Virginia, 49 to TCU, 56 to Texas, and 35 to Iowa State. After splitting with Kansas and Oklahoma they were 4-5 but blew away undefeated Kansas State, 52-24 and that gave them the confidence they needed. They topped Texas Tech in overtime, 52-45, beat Oklahoma State 41-34, and humbled UCLA in the Holiday Bowl 49-26 to finish strong at 8-5.

Last year's prediction: We picked Baylor to be 6-6 in the regular season and had all of the games correct but one until the Kansas State game, after which Baylor played at a much better level. That push at the end carried their Strength ranking into the top 20, quite a bit better than our #31 forecast.

2013 Outlook

Baylor 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Wofford	90%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	Buffalo	89%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Monroe	75%	W
10/5	Sat	vs.	*West Virginia	88%	W
10/12	Sat	@	*Kansas State	41%	L
10/19	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	76%	W
10/26	Sat	@	*Kansas	84%	W
11/9	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	48%	L
11/16	Sat	N	*Texas Tech	69%	W
11/23	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	16%	L
11/30	Sat	@	*TCU	34%	L
12/7	Sat	vs.	*Texas	25%	L
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 90%

Baylor should have four wins to start the season in four home games. Wofford, obviously, and Buffalo. Louisiana-Monroe was a tough win last year on the road and West Virginia was a shootout loss, but the Bears should beat both teams this time around. They travel to Kansas State and the Wildcats will want revenge in Manhattan, KS. But Baylor returns home and should get their own revenge on Iowa State and beat Kansas too. A 6-1 start is probably expected but 7-0 isn't farfetched and even 9-0 isn't impossible.

Oklahoma at home is a tossup game, and after Texas Tech the Bears face their three toughest tests: Oklahoma State and TCU on the road, and Texas at home. All three look like losses from here, but if the Bears have a strong push at the end of this season like they did last season anything is possible.

But most likely they finish 7-5 again and as the #5 or #6 Big Twelve team (they are so close with Kansas State it's hardly a spot) they go to the Pinstripe Bowl to face the #4 AAC team, maybe SMU.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #30 Arizona Wildcats

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Arizona Wildcats  (Pac-12 #8; South #4)

#30	2012 Results	AP NR USA #37	Strength:#35  Success:#30  Overall:#41
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Beat Nevada 49-48 (New Mexico)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #39 | USA #42 | Lindy's #53 | Athlon #40 | Steele #45
		Record: 7-5	Bowl: New Mexico (Eligibility odds: 92%)

A much-improved defense should boost Arizona's bottom line.

Offense 5 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #18 (raw) #12 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #27 (adjusted)

Ka'Deem Carey is back after nearly gaining 2,000 yards, but the offense will miss Matt Scott and Austin Hill.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #23 (raw) #22 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #20
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #56 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #27

Last year Rich Rodriguez managed to amplify the running game without destroying the passing game (it did fall from #2 to #22) largely due to the return of Matt Scott (3,620 yards, 27 TDs, 14 int). Scott is gone and there are several QBs in contention for the starting spot but the clear frontrunner is backup B.J. Denker (259 yards, 3:1). They also have Nick Isham who had 1,457 yards at Louisiana Tech in 2011 (8:7 ratio). Whoever takes over will be without Austin Hill (1,364 yards, 11 TDs) who is still recovering from an ACL tear (slight chance of return late in the year) and Dan Buckner (773 yards, 5 TDs). Seven other players had over 100 yards and six are back led by RB Ka'deem Carey's 303, so there is depth but without their top two targets the new QB is going to have a tougher go of things, and RichRod may take the next step toward a fully run-first offense.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #15 (raw) #15 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #13 (adj.)

Ka'Deem Carey exploded on the scene last year in RichRod's offense with 1,929 yards and 23 touchdowns. QB Matt Scott added 506 yards (6 TDs) and Daniel Jenkins, who transferred to Washington State but came back, had 293. The offensive line returns three starters: Chris Putton, Fabbians Ebbele, and Mickey Baucus, so it should be roughly as good as last year's line. They lose Scott's contribution but QB Denker can run (3.5 ave) too. In Rodriguez's 2nd year the offense may move even more toward the run, which could increase production but Carey has topped out unless he goes into Barry Sanders territory, so another RB needs to step up to maintain the yardage, and if Carey is hurt it would be bad news for the offense.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #94    Pass Defense  per-game: #120   Per-attempt: #85
Defense 11 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #105 (raw) #81 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #120	'12 picks: #49
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #36 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #108	'13 picks: #14

Rich Rodriguez's undoing at Michigan was poor defense, and though he'll have more leeway for that here last year's results weren't pretty. Things should be much better this year as all 11 starters return. The entire 3-man front of the 3-3-5 is back which should spearhead an improved rushing defense. There should also be more pressure on opposing quarterbacks with linebacker Marquis Flowers (100 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss) leading the way. Fellow LB Jake Fischer led the team in tackles with 119. The secondary features TraMayne Bondurant (11.5 tackles for loss) and Shaquille Richardson (14 pass breakups) and based on the number of pass breakups the interceptions total (12 last year) could go up a lot. They do lose a couple of backups—Patrick Ownuasor and Vincente Miles—at safety, making depth there a possible issue. But overall the defense is looking a lot better and might go from a major liability to a possible strength.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker John Bonano (14 of 20 FG) and punter Kyle Dugandzic (43.2 average) are gone; either senior Jake Smith or sophomore Casey Skowron will be the placekicker and Drew Riggleman will take over as punter.
• Return Game:  The main return duo is intact as Dan Jenkins (20.6 average on kickoffs) is back on the team after briefly leaving, and Richard Morrison (10.2 average on punts including 1 touchdown) is back, too.
• Turnovers projection:  The defense returns nearly every pass defense (breakup or interception) from last year's D, and there was so many breakups it suggest that interceptions could jump quite a bit.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #24          2012 Recruiting Rank: #49
After last year's dip due to the coaching transition Arizona has a top 25 class under Rich Rodriguez, putting them right in the thick of the Pac-12 (5 teams from the conference are clustered around the bottom of the top 25). QB Anu Solomon from Las Vegas is the top recruit and could be the starter in the near future.

2012 Recap 
The RichRod era kicked off with a 24-17 overtime win over Toledo, hardly an explosive start. But next week they demolished Oklahoma State 59-38 and after beating South Carolina State 56-0 it looked like something great might be happening. That notion was put to rest by Oregon, 49-0, and close losses to Oregon State (38-35) and Stanford (54-48 ot) followed. At 3-3 they were now underrated rather than overrated, and they beat Washington 52-17 and rallied to beat USC 39-36 which wrecked the Trojans' season. Then the Wildcats had a meltdown of their own losing to UCLA 66-10. They won two of their last three (falling to rival ASU 41-34) but won the bowl game shootout with Nevada 49-48.

Last year's prediction: We didn't think Rodriguez's first year at Arizona would be a big success, but a small step toward it. We projected a 5-7 record and no bowl. What did we get right? Let's see...we projected less passing and more running. We also said that KaDeem Carem had "425, and that number should double if not more." Yep, it was "more."

2013 Outlook

Arizona 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Northern Arizona	96%	W
9/7	Sat	@	UNLV	87%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Texas-San Antonio	93%	W
9/28	Sat	@	*Washington	23%	L
10/10	Thu	@	*USC	29%	L
10/19	Sat	vs.	*Utah	80%	W
10/26	Sat	@	*Colorado	86%	W
11/2	Sat	@	*California	78%	W
11/9	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	48%	L
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	77%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	15%	L
11/30	Sat	@	*Arizona State	18%	L
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 92%

It looks like another 7-5 year unless Arizona can turn a 66-10 road loss into a home victory in the span of a year. The UCLA game is the closest contest we see on a schedule mostly full of clear winners (Northern Arizona, UNLV, and UTSA at the start; Utah, Colorado, and Cal in the middle; and Washington State) and very probably losses (road games at Washington, USC, and Arizona State, and Oregon at home).

Arizona's ability to pull off some upsets depends on their new quarterback, their receivers, and the defense all coming along to become strengths instead of liabilities. But even in their current state we see another bowl trip (9 in 10 chance) and if they beat UCLA they can top last year's results.

If not, they'll probably finish the #8 team in the Pac-12 and head back to the New Mexico Bowl (assuming two Pac-12 teams in BCS bowls). They'd face the #4 Mountain West team, perhaps Fresno State.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #31 BYU Cougars

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

BYU Cougars  (Independent #2)

#31	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#23  Success:#40  Overall:#23
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Beat San Diego St. 23-6 (Poinsettia)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #43 | USA #36 | Lindy's #39 | Athlon #43 | Steele #34
		Record: 8-4	Bowl: Kraft Fight Hunger (Eligibility odds: 95%)

BYU made its name deploying a West Coast offense with gaudy passing stats; currently they're a defense-minded squad that puts up average point totals. So far it's worked for them.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #65 (raw) #57 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #40 (adjusted)

BYU's new offensive coordinator decided the already-fast-tempo BYU offense should be faster. About half the gain in scoring we project is due to that.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #50 (raw) #42 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #61
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #29 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #75

QB Riley Nelson (2,011 yards, 13 TDs, 13 int last year) is gone, as is backup James Lark (778 yards, 8 TDs, 2 int) so Taysom Hill (425 yards, 4:2 as a freshman) will take over. He steps into a pretty good situation this season as every significant pass catcher from last year is back. #1 Cody Hoffman (100 receptions, 1,248 yards, 11 TDs) was and will be the go-to guy, and six others had over 125 yards and all are back. The #2 had only 315 yards, so someone has to step up and take heat off Hoffman, but you can't complain about having everyone back. We look for a better passing game as last year's group was plagued with injury and inconsistency and there will be more reps in the faster offense.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #67 (raw) #65 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #57 (adj.)

Jamaal Williams (775 yards, 12 TDs) led the Cougars in rushing as a freshman, and in all, 5 of the 7 who had over 100 yards are back. One of those is QB Taysom Hill (#2 w/336), another is fullback Michael Alisa (#3 with 222). The offensive line returns Ryker Matthews who started every game, and Manaaki Vaitai and Solomone Kafu who both started about 3/4-time. Call it 2 1/2 starters back, so the line could be a bit weaker, but extra plays from the faster tempo offense once again should insure they're on the plus side.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #12    Pass Defense  per-game: #3   Per-attempt: #19
Defense 3 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #4 (raw) #8 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #49	'12 picks: #55
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #20 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #39	'13 picks: #82

BYU's defense was pretty amazing last year, and didn't get the credit nationally that it deserved (being an independent means getting overlooked sometimes). This year it will probably drop quite a bit but could remain in the top 25. The defensive line is the hardest hit. Last year's rushing defense ranked #2 in raw per-game yardage, and #12 when adjusted for their opponents, but all three starters are gone up front including high 1st-round draft pick Ezekiel Ansah (4.5 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss, 9 pass breakups). At linebacker they lose two starters including #1 tackler Brandon Ogletree (102 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss) but two return including Kyle Van Noy (13 sacks, 9 tackles for loss). The secondary returns just one starter, #2 tackler Daniel Sorenson. Jordan Johnson (15 pass breakups) was back, too, but a knee injury in camp took him out. Those are some stiff losses but BYU normally has good depth and they get back 2010-2011 defensive line starter Eathyn Manumaleuna and key 2010 backup Austen Jorgensen at linebacker. They'll probably still be good, just not great, and they have to deal with the tempo increase on offense; luckily they're used to it for the most part.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Justin Sorenson (6 of 12 FG last year) is back after an injury-plagued year at kicker, while punter Riley Stephenson (45.4 average, also 4 of 6 FG) is gone. The new punter will be Scott Arellano.
• Return Game:  WR J.D. Falslev returned both kickoffs (26.0 average) and punts (9.5 average) last year and he is back for his senior year. He had a touchdown return in 2011 (punt), as did fellow WR Cody Hoffman (on a kickoff).
• Turnovers projection:  Not much change is forecast.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #61          2012 Recruiting Rank: #74
So far the independent scene isn't hurting the Cougars in terms of recruiting; in the Mountain West they did about the same. Bronco Mendenhall has said that the schedule played as an independent helps them with recruiting, and that may be paying off.

2012 Recap 
BYU is by tradition a passing team with a powerful offense, but last year none of that was true and in fact, they were a lock-down defensive team. They beat Washington State 30-6 and started 2-0 but they lost to Utah, 24-21. When they lost to Boise State 7-6 people wondered what the hell was going on...that game should be an offensive shootout! But the low score was BYU's fault on both sides of the ball. They shut out Hawaii and beat Utah State in another classic, 6-3. They nearly beat Notre Dame, falling 17-14, and held Georgia Tech to 17 points in beating the Yellow Jackets. They finished 7-5 and then held San Diego State to 6 points in the Poinsettia Bowl win..

Last year's prediction: We underranked BYU at #42 but overestimated their record to be 8-4. We did get three of the losses right: Utah, Boise State, and Notre Dame.

2013 Outlook

BYU 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	@	Virginia	73%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	Texas	22%	L
9/21	Sat	vs.	Utah	80%	W
9/27	Fri	vs.	M. Tennessee St.	89%	W
10/4	Fri	@	Utah State	48%	L
10/12	Sat	vs.	Georgia Tech	61%	W
10/19	Sat	@	Houston	85%	W
10/25	Fri	vs.	Boise State	72%	W
11/9	Sat	@	Wisconsin	35%	L
11/16	Sat	vs.	Idaho State	100%	W
11/23	Sat	@	Notre Dame	30%	L
11/30	Sat	@	Nevada	89%	W
Straight up: 8-4  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 95%

BYU has a tough schedule, but after conceding the games to the tough opponents (Texas, Wisconsin, Notre Dame) it doesn't look so bad, and BYU should be able to take care of business and go to a bowl game at the very least.

Virginia probably won't be that tough even at home, and the Cougars should pay back Utah for last season's loss. They should be favored at home over MTSU, obviously. Utah State on the road is probably going to be just as close as last year—hopefully a bit more exciting too. Then they face Georgia Tech and their new defensive line will get a huge test, but we're betting they pass the test.

Houston and Boise State we have as wins, too. It's hard to know how good Houston will be this year, and Boise is going to be good but BYU is at home. Idaho State is a true gimme and Nevada is probably down this year.

So that's 8 wins, or 9 if they beat Utah State. A lot of the teams they face vary a lot year to year (Houston) or game to game (Georgia Tech) so there might be some crazy results. But 8-4 looks possible and who knows if Texas, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame will live up to their billing on that particular gameday?

BYU goes to the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl if they reach eligibility this year. They'd face the Pac-12 #6 team which, assuming two BCS teams from that conference, might be UCLA.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #32 Vanderbilt Commodores

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Vanderbilt Commodores  (SEC #8; East #4)

#32	2012 Results	AP #23 USA #20	Strength:#30  Success:#37  Overall:#36
		Record: 9-4	Bowl: Beat NC State 38-23 (Music City)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #33 | USA #34 | Lindy's #32 | Athlon #28 | Steele #35
		Record: 7-5	Bowl: Music City (Eligibility odds: 88%)

Just as the program was starting to take off several players are dismissed because of a rape case.

Offense 6.5 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #57 (raw) #47 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #63 (adjusted)

The offense will naturally be weaker without QB Jordan Rodgers and RB Zac Stacy.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #82 (raw) #84 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #49
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #89 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #46

QB Jordan Rodgers (2,539 yards, 15 TDs, 5 int) led a reasonably productive and efficient passing attack. He's gone and backup Austyn Carta-Samuels (208 yards, 1 TD) takes over as a senior; he had nearly 1,953 yards and 10 TDs (5 int) as a freshman at Wyoming in 2009. #1 target Jordan Matthews (1,323 yards, 8 TDs) is back and #2 Chris Boyd (774 yards, 5 TDs) might be back—or he might not. Boyd was arrested as an 'accesory after the fact' in the rape case. Beyond the top two there isn't much; only two other players had over 100 yards, and one returns. Two more had over 100 yards in 2011, so if Boyd is gone all of those will have to step up in order to draw focus away from Matthews. The passing game wasn't all that productive last year so it shouldn't fall that far, even if Boyd is dismissed.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #58 (raw) #69 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #81 (adj.)

Zac Stacy (1,141 yards, 10 TDs) departs as Vandy's all-timer leading rusher, leaving a void in the backfield. Two other RBs had over 300 yards and both return. Senior Wesley Tate (376 yards, 8 TDs) is heir to the starting spot, but sophomore Brian Kimbrow (413 yards) had a much better average (6.3 to 3.5). The offensive line returns three starters—Wesley Johnson, Andrew Bridges, and Joe Townsend started the majority of games last year—and the other two have starting experience from last year. Without Stacy production probably falls, but not too far as QB Carta-Samuels can run too (392 yards in 2010).

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #53    Pass Defense  per-game: #23   Per-attempt: #15
Defense 6.5 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #16 (raw) #24 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #51	'12 picks: #85
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #11 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #34	'13 picks: #77

Vandy's defense was great in 2012 and could be better this year. The rushing defense was the weak spot and that will remain as three starters are gone in the front four including Rob Lohr (9 tackles for loss). Walker May (7.5 tackles for loss) returns and backup Kyle Woestmann (6 sacks) moves into an open slot. They also get back half-time starter Jared Morse who was questionable before the season started. Two starting linebackers—Chase Garnham (7 sacks) and Karl Butler (9.5 tackles for loss)—return. The secondary has three senior starters back, including #1 tackler Kenny Ladler (90 tackles) and Andre Hal (14 pass breakups). In all, six of the seven top tacklers are back and Vandy might have nearly a top ten defense.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Carey Spear connected on 20 of 24 field goal attempts last year and is back, but punter Richard Kent (44.9 average) is gone; redshirt freshman Colby Cooke will take over.
• Return Game: Jonathan Krause had 2 touchdown returns on punts last year and averaged 11.2 yards; Andre Hal averaged 22.9 on kickoffs last year and had a touchdown return in 2011. Both are back.
• Turnovers projection:  Fumbles will probably go more Vandy's way next year, but Carta-Samuels will probably exceed Franklin's 5 interceptions from last year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #17          2012 Recruiting Rank: #37
The excitement around the program was building with James Franklin as head coach. Two bowl seasons and last year's 9-4 record and top 25 ranking helped Franklin bring in a top 25 class for 2013. For the SEC it's still only about average quality, but it's not often Vandy is in the thick of the recruiting race in their conference. The current scandal threatens to undermine a lot of that progress; already three 2012 recruits have been dismissed and one from this year. How Franklin handles the matter may determine whether Vandy's momentum continues or not.

2012 Recap 
Vanderbilt almost lived up our pre-season hype early against South Carolina but couldn't hold on, losing 17-13. Then they lost to Northwestern 23-13, were killed by Georgia 48-3 putting them at 1-3 and our pre-season ranking looked like a joke. The Commodores beat Missouri on the road but Florida gave them loss #4. Then the season turned much easier and Vandy finished with six straight wins, putting them nearly at our projection level after all. They beat NC State in the bowl and actually finished in the top 25.

Last year's prediction: Vanderbilt was our surprise top 25 pre-season pick. We ranked them #19 and it wasn't a popular pick—they didn't have even a single vote in the pre-season polls. We projected the Commodores to be 9-3 on the year. Vandy finished #23 in the AP and #20 in the coaches' poll.

2013 Outlook

Vanderbilt 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	36%	L
9/7	Sat	vs.	Austin Peay	100%	W
9/14	Sat	@	*South Carolina	25%	L
9/21	Sat	@	Massachusetts	99%	W
9/28	Sat	vs.	UAB	95%	W
10/5	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	59%	W
10/19	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	22%	L
10/26	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	8%	L
11/9	Sat	@	*Florida	24%	L
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	80%	W
11/23	Sat	@	*Tennessee	54%	W
11/30	Sat	vs.	Wake Forest	92%	W
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 88%

This year we're more in-line with the mainstream on Vanderbilt—it seems like everyone has them in roughly the same spot we do. It should be another good year for Vandy unless the current rape crisis affects the rest of the team members who have no involvement in the case.

Putting that aside, Vanderbilt should be about 7-5 according to both projections and go to a bowl game. The schedule starts a bit rough with Mississippi and South Carolina in the first three weeks, but they also get three very easy games vs. Austin Peay, UMass, and UAB. If they're not 3-2 at this point, something dramatic has happened, though Ole Miss at home is a good upset opportunity.

Missouri at home will be tough but Vandy can take the Tigers. Georgia, Texas A&M, and Florida are another matter; the Commodores still aren't up to pace with the elite in the conference. They can beat Kentucky, certainly, and Wake Forest in the final, but Tennessee in Knoxville will be another challenging game.

If Vandy does go 7-5 they'll probably head back to the Music City Bowl (across town) and face the ACC #6team, perhaps Virginia Tech.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #33 Missouri Tigers

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Missouri Tigers  (SEC #9; East #5)

#33	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#42  Success:#64  Overall:#53
		Record: 5-7	Bowl: None
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #61 | Athlon #48 | Steele #37
		Record: 6-6	Bowl: Liberty (Eligibility odds: 70%)

Missouri seems like the nation's "forgotten team" since they left the Big 12; Texas A&M stole all the hype as the Tigers didn't live up to expectations in the SEC. But if James Franklin and Henry Josey return to form they could really make some noise.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #90 (raw) #55 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #34 (adjusted)

James Franklin should be healthy, and Henry Josey is back; those are two big reasons why Mizzou's offense ought to be much improved in 2013.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #77 (raw) #55 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #78
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #38 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #63

James Franklin (1,562 yards, 10 TDs, 7 int) returns at quarterback after sharing time with Corbin Berkstresser (1,059 yards, 5 TDs, 7 int). Franklin had shoulder surgery after the 2011 season and was never healthy last year but he should be now. Five of Mizzou's top seven receivers are back including #1 Marcus Lucas (509 yards) and the offensive line should offer better protection than last year's 29 sacks. Franklin's situation is somewhat similar to Robert Griffin III's at Baylor: In RG3's first year back from injury he struggled much of the season before regaining the form that would win him the Heisman the next year. We're not suggesting Franklin will win the Heisman but that his potential should be judged using his 2011 stats (2,865 yards, 21 TDs, 11 int) as a base, not 2012's.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #90 (raw) #76 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #51 (adj.)

Kendial Lawrence (1,025 yards, 12 TDs) is gone, and #2 Marcus Murphy (251 yards) is next in line. But if Henry Josey can return to form then everything changes. Josey had 1,168 yards—8.1 yards per carry—in 2011 in 8 games before a knee injury knocked him out of that year and 2012. Furthermore, QB James Franklin had 981 yards in 2011 and should come a lot closer to that than he did last year (122). The offensive line returns four starters—Max Copeland, Justin Britt, Mitch Morse, and Evan Boehm. Despite losing their 1,000 yard rusher we see better numbers on the ground for Mizzou.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #28    Pass Defense  per-game: #62   Per-attempt: #25
Defense 6 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #56 (raw) #28 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #86	'12 picks: #83
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #27 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #92	'13 picks: #74

The Mizzou defense was solid across the board last year, borderline top-25 against the run, pass (per-play), and scoring. It should be roughly the same story this year. The defensive line loses Sheldon Richardson (4 sacks, 6.5 tackles for loss), who was remarkably the team's #2 tackler. But they have three starters back including sacks leader Michael Sam (4.5 sacks). At linebacker two starters are gone including Will Ebner (9.5 tackles for loss) but #1 tackler Andrew Wilson (79 tackles) is back. The secondary returns two starters including E.J. Gaines (11 pass breakups).

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Andrew Baggett (14 of 20 FG) is back while punter Trey Barrow (43.0 average) departs. Junior Christian Brinser should be the replacement.
• Return Game:  Marcus Murphy is back after returning four kicks for touchdowns last season, 3 on punts (13.1 average) and 1 on a kickoff (24.1 average). That's not all: Jimmy Hunt added a touchdown return on a kickoff, and E.J. Gaines had one on a punt in 2011.
• Turnovers projection:  Missouri had too-good-to-be-true luck recovering fumbles last year, but the QBs should trim the interceptions a bit and the defense should have a few more, and it all evens out most likely.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #69          2012 Recruiting Rank: #43
Nine teams in the SEC have a top 25 recruiting class, and 11 of 14 are in our top 30. So recruiting at a below-average level for the nation just won't do. Missouri's 2013 class ranks last in the SEC by far. To be fair it's a small class, and losing consensus blue chip RB Chase Abbington—possibly their top recruit—to the dreaded DNQ didn't help. But Gary Pinkel may have to adopt the SEC mantra—sign as many as you are allowed and let attrition separate the wheat from the chaff.

2012 Recap 
With much fanfare Missouri and Texas A&M came to the SEC. Both teams hit speedbumps early but Texas A&M ended up beating Alabama and having the Heisman Trophy winner while Missouri's season faded into disregard. The first SEC game—against "old man football" team Georgia, ended in a 41-20 loss. The Tigers rebounded to beat Arizona State but lost at South Carolina 31-10. They beat anonther non-conference team, UCF 21-16 but lost to Vanderbilt 19-15 and Alabama 42-10 and just like that they were 0-4 in conference. Kentucky gave them their first SEC win and later they beat Tennessee in four overtimes 51-48, but fittingly their final game was a blowout loss to Texas A&M, 59-29.

Last year's prediction: We had Missouri in the top 25 and projected an 8-4 record. We presumed Franklin healthy and at the time it was thought Josey might return; neither happened and the offense suffered greatly.

2013 Outlook

Missouri 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Murray State	98%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	Toledo	84%	W
9/21	Sat	@	Indiana	51%	W
9/28	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	89%	W
10/5	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	41%	L
10/12	Sat	@	*Georgia	11%	L
10/19	Sat	vs.	*Florida	39%	L
10/26	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	40%	L
11/2	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	70%	W
11/9	Sat	@	*Kentucky	66%	W
11/23	Sat	@	*Mississippi	21%	L
11/30	Sat	vs.	*Texas A&M	16%	L
Straight up: 6-6  Cume: 6-6  Bowl eligible: 70%

The cumulative projection says Mizzou should be 6-6 this year, but they're going to have to win the early games to make that happen. Specifically, they have to beat Indiana on the road. Murray State, Toledo, and Arkansas State should be wins, and the Tigers should beat Tennessee and Kentucky again, but they can't count on any other SEC wins.

There are opportunities, and there will be fewer big losses this year. Vanderbilt, Florida, and South Carolina are all good upset possibilities since they get the latter two at home. Only Georgia, Mississippi, and Texas A&M look like pretty darn sure losses.

A lot depends on Franklin and Josey. If they are both completely healthy and playing their best the Tigers should be about 9-3. If Franklin's struggles continue and Josey has lost several steps, then the team probably won't make a bowl game. We give the Tigers about a 7 in 10 chance of making it. Assuming two SEC BCS bowl teams, the #9 SEC team would go to the Liberty Bowl, facing the top C-USA team which we think will be Rice.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #34 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets  (ACC #4; Coastal #2)

#34	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#47  Success:#63  Overall:#50
		Record: 7-7	Bowl: Beat USC 21-7 (Sun)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #38 | USA NR | Lindy's #34 | Athlon #34 | Steele #31
		Record: 8-4	Bowl: Sun (Eligibility odds: 79%)

The Wreck should be better this year due to a defensive upgrade but it might be their third straight year in the Sun (Bowl).

Offense 7 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #32 (raw) #29 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #32 (adjusted)

Not much change is expected in the offense; what you see—lots of running and very little passing—is what you get, regardless of personnel.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #120 (raw) #119 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #16
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #120 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #11

Tevin Washington (1,222 yards, 8 TDs, 4 int) was a good passer by GT standards, completing 56% of his attempts. Vad Lee (596 yards, 4 TDs, 3 int) will take over; he completed 48%. The Yellow Jackets lose their top two receivers (combined 36 catches, 572 yards). #3 Robert Godhigh (227) and three other returnees had 130+ yards. There might be a dip in production but if they decide to pass a bit more they'll make up for it. In the end, they're going to rank near the bottom of the pack so there's no need to overanalyze it.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #4 (raw) #3 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #2 (adj.)

Georgia Tech had five players with over 500 rushing yards and three of them are back: #1 Zach Laskey (697 yards), #4 David Sims (612) and #5 Vad Lee (544, 9 TDs). Gone are QB Tevin Washington (684 yards, 20 touchdowns) and Orwin Smith (682, 5). Four others who return had 140+ yards, so the returning group shouldn't miss a step, and they're running behind what should be a stronger offensive line. Starters Ray Beno, Jay Finch, and Shaquille Mason are back, as is Will Jackson who started half-time last year due to injury, and another half-time starter, Morgan Bailey. The ground game might even be a little better this year, but even if it isn't it will again be near the top.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #54    Pass Defense  per-game: #25   Per-attempt: #47
Defense 8 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #62 (raw) #59 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #48	'12 picks: #43
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #35 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #32	'13 picks: #49

Only one starter, Emmanuel Dieke, returns from last year's defensive line, which is an issue since the Yellow Jackets are moving to a 4-man line. But since all four of last year's linebackers return, Jeremiah Attaochu (10 sacks) makes the move to the D-line. The secondary loses Rod Sweeting but returns three starters including the team's top 2 tacklers, Isaiah Johnson (87 tackles) and Jemea Thomas (4 int). In all the defense retains its top six tacklers and should be tougher.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Sean Poole (39.7 average) is back but placekicker is open. David Scully (4 of 8 FGs) returns but was replaced by the departing Chris Tanner (5 of 6) and this year freshman Harrison Butker or 2011 kicker Justin Moore (2 of 4 last year, 11 of 17 in '11) will get the job.
• Return Game:  Jamal Golden is back to return kicks; he averaged 28.3 yards per kickoff return (2 touchdowns) and 14.6 per punt return.
• Turnovers projection:  No major differences are predicted from last year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #93          2012 Recruiting Rank: #60
This year's recruiting class ranks 2nd-to-last in the ACC mainly because it's a very small class, and all things being equal, a smaller class is inferior to a large one of the same average quality. Paul Johnson will bounce back next year as scholarships open up—he already has more commits for next year than recruits for 2013.

2012 Recap
Georgia Tech was an up-and-down team in 2012. The first "down" was the 20-17 overtime loss at Virginia Tech. They were "up" as they handled Presbyterian (59-3) and Virginia (56-20) with ease. The Miami game was an inter-game paradox, where the Yellow Jackets fell behind 19-0, rallied for a halftime lead at 22-19, added two more touchdowns for a 36-19 lead, then watched the Hurricanes tie the game and win in overtime. The "down" carried over to the next game as Sun Belt's Middle Tennessee State blasted the Wreck, 49-28. They also lost to Clemson by 16 and BYU by 24, and things looked bleak at 3-5. But they rallied for a 3-game winning streak, beating UNC and Duke, and because UNC was ineligible and Miami opted out of the post-season they found themselves the coastal division rep in the ACC championship game. First, however, came a 42-10 beatdown at the hands of Georgia. They did much better against FSU but fell 21-15. Facing a dejected and in-fighting USC team they beat the Trojans 21-7.

Of Georgia Tech's 7 losses, two came against a team that had 2 weeks to prepare (Virginia Tech and Middle Tennessee State), and two more (Miami and Georgia) came against a team coming off a game against a I-AA (FCS) foe. But three of Tech's wins—UNC, Duke, and USC—were over teams who had 2 weeks to prepare. Even if you don't count USC, GT did score 110 total points between UNC and Duke.

Last year's prediction: We picked the Yellow Jackets to go 8-4 and win their division. They didn't do the former but they did the latter due to fluke circumstances.

2013 Outlook

Georgia Tech 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Elon	99%	W
9/14	Sat	@	*Duke	75%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	59%	W
9/26	Thu	vs.	*Virginia Tech	78%	W
10/5	Sat	@	*Miami (Florida)	25%	L
10/12	Sat	@	BYU	39%	L
10/19	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	79%	W
10/26	Sat	@	*Virginia	71%	W
11/2	Sat	vs.	*Pittsburgh	87%	W
11/14	Thu	@	*Clemson	24%	L
11/23	Sat	vs.	Alabama A&M	100%	W
11/30	Sat	vs.	Georgia	20%	L
Straight up: 8-4  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 79%

This looks like a repeat of last year's prediction, 8-4 across the board. Tech's 4 in 5 shot at a bowl game may seem a bit low for an 8-4 projection but since they play two FCS schools they'll need 7 wins.

Elon (3-8) is the first of the two FCS teams and we give the Phoenix (formerly the Fighting Christians) a tiny ray of hope that we don't give Alabama A&M near Thanksgiving. The Yellow Jackets should beat Duke on the road and North Carolina and Virginia Tech are at home. UNC has 2 weeks to prepare for the triple option but it didn't help last year, and Virginia Tech has a game five days earlier.

Miami, especially on the road, might be too tough this year and BYU is on the road, too; the Cougars have an extra day to prepare after playing on Friday the previous week. The Wreck should win the next three before facing Clemson on the road, and the Tigers have 12 days to prepare before the Thursday game. Georgia is realistically another loss.

A 4th-place ACC finish will put the Yellow Jackets back in the Sun Bowl again, against the #4 Pac-12 team, which is where we rank Stanford if the Pac-12 gets two BCS teams. Or it could even be USC again!

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #35 North Carolina Tar Heels

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

North Carolina Tar Heels  (ACC #5; Coastal #3)

#35	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#38  Success:#50  Overall:#52
		Record: 8-4	Bowl: None (ineligible)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #39 | USA #37 | Lindy's #41 | Athlon #38 | Steele #39
		Record: 8-4	Bowl: Belk (Eligibility odds: 96%)

Can the Tar Heels break out of their "rut" of 8-win seasons?

Offense 6 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #7 (raw) #18 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #22 (adjusted)

Bryn Renner will keep the passing game—and the overall offense—strong but losing Giovanni Bernard hurts.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #26 (raw) #27 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #15
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #14 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #22

Bryn Renner (3,356 yards, 28 TDs, 7 int) is back for his senior year, and top targets Quinshad Davis (776 yards, 5 TDs) and Eric Ebron (625 yards) are back. The Tar Heels lose Eric Highsmith (587, 5) and RB Giovanni Bernard (490, 5) but the next three, all 100+ in yardage, are back. The line probably won't match last year's great protection (11 sacks) but it should remain solid. Overall the passing game looks like it should jump into the top 25.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #32 (raw) #44 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #71 (adj.)

The running game is probably going in the opposite direction from the passing game as Giovanni Bernard (1,228 yards, 12 TDs) made the leap to the NFL. The cupboard isn't bare as the Tar Heels return A.J. Blue (433 yards, 9 TDs) and Romar Morris (386, 2) and one of them will be the starter this year. The offensive line loses three starters to the NFL but James Hurst and Russell Bodine return to hold down the fort. Between the O-line and running backs the Tar Heels lose 4 NFL-level players and that has to hurt ground production.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #83    Pass Defense  per-game: #69   Per-attempt: #65
Defense 6 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #53 (raw) #71 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #43	'12 picks: #39
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #67 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #55	'13 picks: #16

UNC's defense has two hybrid positions so it can be a 4-3 or 3-3-5 but we view it as Larry Fedora does, a 4-2-5. The Tar Heels need some help against the run—they were #41 in raw numbers but faced mostly poor rushing teams—and the defensive line is a mixed bag this year as two starters are gone including Sylvester Williams (6 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss) while Kareem Martin (11.5 tackles for loss) returns. Kevin Reddick (6.5 sacks, 12 tackles for loss) departs at linebacker; they get backup Darius Lipford back from medical redshirt but recently lost Shakeel Rashad to a knee injury. The secondary returns three starters including top tackler Tre Boston (86 tackles, 4 int) and Tim Scott (9 pass breakups, 4 int), but Sam Smiley has a toe injury and will not play this year. The upshot? The pass defense looks stronger, and they could top even last year's 16 picks, but the rushing defense will still be a problem when they face strong running teams.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Casey Barth (15 of 19 field goals last year) is gone and either Thomas Moore (2 of 3 FG last year) or soph Miller Snyder will replace him. Punter Tommy Hibbard (43.0 average) is back.
• Return Game:  Giovanni Bernard's loss will be felt not only as a runner and pass catcher, but also as a return man. Bernard returned 2 punts for touchdowns last year and averaged 16.4 per attempt; Roy Smith had a 13.7 average and freshman Khris Francis should see action. On kickoff returns Sean Tapley (23.4 average) took one back for a touchdown, as did T.J. Thorpe in 2011. Thorpe is returning from foot injuries that kept him out last year.
• Turnovers projection:  UNC's fumble situation should improve slightly from last year, and the secondary should be much better at picking off passes, though 16 is a high target (they faced interception-prone QBs last year, so it depends on how that factor changes).

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #41          2012 Recruiting Rank: #36
Recruiting normally improves in a coach's 2nd year but that doesn't happen for Larry Fedora, probably because the team is on probation and loses 5 scholarships a year for three years. The group is smaller and less well-regarded than most of Butch Davis' classes were. North Carolina has been stuck in an 8-win rut for a while—all of Davis' last three years were 8-5, and Fedora's first year was 8-4—and hasn't had a 9+ win season since 1997 (11-1).

2012 Recap 
North Carolina's 62-0 win over Elon might have been their best game of the year; their power rating is greatly affected by whether this game is included (#38) or not (#49). That win might have lulled them into overconfidence as they were dispatched by Wake Forest 28-27 and Louisville 39-34 shortly thereafter. They won four in a row, beating ECU 27-6, blasting Idaho 66-0 (they are very good against the very bad teams), and handling Virginia Tech 48-34 and Miami 18-14. But then they lost to Duke 33-30, and later were embarrassed by Georgia Tech 68-50 where their rushing defense was terrible. They closed with two wins to go 8-4, unable to play for the ACC title or go to a bowl game.

Last year's prediction: We ranked UNC #43, a pretty accurate placing based on their final Strength rankings. And we're not stupid—we projected an 8-4 finish for the Tar Heels. Game-by-game we saw the potential for an 11-1 season but with nowhere to go that seemed unlikely.

2013 Outlook

UNC 2013 schedule & forecast
8/29	Thu	@	South Carolina	22%	L
9/7	Sat	vs.	M. Tennessee St.	88%	W
9/21	Sat	@	*Georgia Tech	41%	L
9/28	Sat	vs.	East Carolina	75%	W
10/5	Sat	@	*Virginia Tech	55%	W
10/17	Thu	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	39%	L
10/26	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	74%	W
11/2	Sat	@	*N.C. State	72%	W
11/9	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	83%	W
11/16	Sat	@	*Pittsburgh	75%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	Old Dominion	92%	W
11/30	Sat	vs.	*Duke	87%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 96%

If North Carolina wants to reach 9 wins this year they'll have to either avoid all upsets, or win their bowl game. We project another 8-4 season but if they win all the games they are favored in they could be 9-3.

The first half of the season is a lot more difficult than the latter half; they open at South Carolina, travel to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, and face an improved Miami team. The Tar Heels might start 2-4 with  only home wins against Middle Tennessee and East Carolina. The 2nd half of the season should be a 6-0 run if they play consistently, with Boston College, NC State, and Pitt offering the most challenge.

We don't have UNC competing for the ACC title, but the Tar Heels should definitely go bowling this year, and our ACC placement (#5) puts them in the Belk Bowl vs. the #3 AAC (American Athletic) team which could be Central Florida. It should be a game the Tar Heels can win so if they finish 8-4 they have a good chance of getting that 9th win.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #40 Rice Owls

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Rice Owls  (C-USA #1; West #1)

#40	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#75  Success:#83  Overall:#75
		Record: 7-6	Bowl: Beat Air Force 33-14 (Armed Forces)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #77 | Athlon #81 | Steele #77
		Record: 9-3	Bowl: Liberty (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Looking at where we have Rice ranked compared to the others, we had to check our data...but there is no mistake; we're calling for Rice to jump from a mediocre bowl team into the top 40 in the nation. Let's find out why.

Offense 9 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #48 (raw) #75 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #43 (adjusted)

Better passing game, better running game, better offensive line...the offense looks better.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #68 (raw) #87 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #103
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #66 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #63

Taylor McHargue (2,209 yards, 12 TDs, 5 int) and backup Driphus Jackson (672 yards, 6 TDs, 0 int) did an adequate if unspectacular job leading the passing attack. Both are back, McHargue for his senior year. Top receiver Jordan Taylor (826 yards) is also back, though #2 Sam McGuffie (603 departs). The rest of the corps is a bit thin as only three of six others who topped 100 yards are back, but three more who did in 2011 are back and can pick up the slack. QB protection was a big problem last year as Rice allowed 33 sacks; this year's O-line is far more experienced and that total should drop sharply. Don't expect fireworks but the passing game should be stronger.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #29 (raw) #45 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #14 (adj.)

The real boost in the offense should come from the running game, where every significan ground gainer is back. Charles Ross (800 yards, 5 TDs) led the team and QB McHargue was second with 667 (11 TDs). Turner Peterson was the #2 RB (591 yards, 5 TDs) and three others topped 100 yards. The offensive line returns all five starters from last year: Nate Richards and Jon Hodde are seniors; Nico Carlson and Drew Carroll are juniors; and Caleb Williams is a sophomore. With everyone back, the Owls could have a very powerful rushing attack this year, well into the top 25.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #91    Pass Defense  per-game: #61   Per-attempt: #114
Defense 9 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #74 (raw) #77 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #42	'12 picks: #80
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #35 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #40	'13 picks: #21

Rice's defense was very weak last year, but still an improvement over years past. This year the D could take a quantum leap as 9 starters return. The defensive line of the 4-2-5 looks pretty good. They lose Jared Williams (5.5 sacks) and Hosam Shahin (5 sacks) recently left the program, but Cody Bauer (5.5 sacks), and Christian Covington (5 sacks) return. They also get Tanner Leland back; he is expected to fill an open starting slot after fighting injuries most of last year. With both linebacker slots filled with returning starters, too, the rushing defense should be a lot stronger and the D should show an increase in sacks. The 5-man secondary has everyone back, including #1 tackler Paul Porras (93 tackles) and Phillip Gaines (18 pass breakups), while 2010-2011 starter Corey Frazier returns from medical redshirt. The team returns essentially all of its pass defenses (breakups + interceptions) and the sheer amount they had suggests they could radically increase their 11 interceptions in '13. Overall 7 of the top 8 tacklers are back and we see Rice's defense jumping from below-mediocre into top 40 quality.

Unpossible, you say? Utah State's scoring defense jumped from #73 to #15 in one season (just last year) and it was completely unexpected, so what we're proposing for Rice is not only less of a jump, it also makes more sense based on returning experience. It will be interesting to see what transpires.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Chris Boswell (23 of 29 field goals last year, with 6 of 8 from 50+) is back, while punter Taylor Cook (36.4 average) departs. Redshirt freshman Cameron Decell will take over.
• Return Game:  Luke Turner (20.6 on kickoffs) and Dennis Parks (3.2 ave on punt returns) are both back, as is Jeremy Eddington who had a kickoff touchdown return last year (34.0 average on 9 returns).
• Turnovers projection:  We have Rice gaining more interceptions on defense (relative to last year) than any other team as their secondary returns intact, and their volume of pass breakups should convert into more picks.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #108          2012 Recruiting Rank: #78
This might be Rice's weakest link in the whole analysis—poor recruiting. This year's class is a big step down from last year's even, and it happened on a bowl year. This year's group is in the lower half of the C-USA, but look for a big rebound next year. Coach David Bailiff is in his 7th year at Rice and aside from a 10-3 campaign in his 2nd year there hasn't been much to crow about, and when they were 1-5 last year it didn't look good. But the season turned around, and now things could be looking up.

2012 Recap 
Rice's 2012 story is their 1-5 start and 5-1 finish. In the first half of the season, they beat Kansas by a point (25-24), lost to UCLA and Louisiana Tech, and lost to three mediocre teams (two by less than 4 points). In the second half of the season, they only lost to 11-3 Tulsa, and beat SMU in addition to a bunch of bad teams. They come on big in the 2nd half to overwhelm Air Force, 33-14, to finish with their 2nd winning record of Bailiff's tenure.

Last year's prediction: We projected a 5-7 record, giving Rice a 24% chance of bowl eligibility. We didn't foresee the pattern of early losses and later-season wins happening.

2013 Outlook

Rice 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	@	Texas A&M	6%	L
9/14	Sat	vs.	Kansas	87%	W
9/21	Sat	N	Houston	85%	W
9/28	Sat	vs.	*Florida Atlantic	93%	W
10/5	Sat	@	*Tulsa	57%	W
10/12	Sat	@	*Texas-San Antonio	81%	W
10/19	Sat	@	New Mexico State	98%	W
10/26	Sat	vs.	*UTEP	96%	W
11/2	Sat	@	*North Texas	73%	W
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana Tech	97%	W
11/23	Sat	@	*UAB	84%	W
11/30	Sat	vs.	*Tulane	93%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3  Odds of 12-0: 1%

Our rating for Rice is so high and their schedule so easy that we favor the Owls in every game except one, and that game is essentially not winnable.

But there could be a glimmer of hope. If Johnny Manziel is suspended for even one game, that game will be Rice. So the trip to Texas A&M, while still daunting, suddenly becomes interesting. Who knows how A&M would react in their first game, without Manziel? They'd probably come out firing and crush the Owls, but you never know. We have Manziel on a "50% dock" for this game. If he plays, the odds fall to 6%; if he's confirmed out, they rise to 24%. UPDATE: Our 50% dock turned out to be prescient as he was suspended for 1/2 the game. But Rice's concurrent suspensions counter Manziel's absence; two defensive starters are out, Cameron Nwosu and Phillip Gaines, and WR/KR Dennis Parks, putting the game back at one-chance-in-hell territory.

Beyond that, Rice should coast if they live up to our (demanding) expectations. Kansas at home, Houston in Reliant Stadium, Florida Atlantic—all will fall. Tulsa on the road will be their next biggest challenge; if they make it past that they have only upsets to blame for not going 11-1. We expect there will have to be at least one upset and a 10-2 or 9-3 finish is more realistic. The 1% odds of going 12-0 are coloured by the A&M game; if they win that, the odds go up to 1 in 6!

Rice is our #1 C-USA team and as such, they would play in the Liberty Bowl against an SEC opponent, perhaps Missouri.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #36 Northern Illinois Huskies

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Northern Illinois Huskies  (MAC #1; West #1)

#36	2012 Results	AP #22 USA #24	Strength:#37  Success:#20  Overall:#34
		Record: 12-2	Bowl: Lost to FSU 31-10 (Orange)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #35 | USA #37 | Lindy's #27 | Athlon #44 | Steele #54
		Record: 10-2	Bowl: GoDaddy.com (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

If the Huskies are just as good as they were last year, can they beat Iowa this time and run the table? A lot depends on how their defense holds up.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #14 (raw) #36 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #20 (adjusted)

Jordan Lynch is back, and that's all we really need to know. Well, that and the offensive line returns intact; that helps, too.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #63 (raw) #80 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #37
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #65 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #18

Huskies quarterback Jordan Lynch (3,138 yards, 25 TDs, 6 int) became one of the biggest stars in recent MAC history last year, finishing 7th in Heisman Trophy voting. His passing wasn't the main reason, though he was efficient and careful with the ball. This year top receiver Martel Moore (1,083 yards, 13 TDs) is gone but six of the top eight are back including #2 Tommylee Lewis (539 yards, 5 TDs). The offensive line returns intact and should provide even better protection than last year (17 sacks). Passing once again won't be the main reason for Lynch's stardom but he should have better production.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #12 (raw) #21 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #8 (adj.)

Jordan Lynch ran for 1,815 yards and 19 TDs last season, making him one of the nation's top rushers, period, and easily #1 among quarterbacks. Top running back Leighton Settle (453 yards, 5 TDs) is gone but Akeem Daniels (447, 9) is back. It will be hard for Lynch to top last year's totals but the team as a whole should be better behind a much more experienced offensive line. Last year the line had to be replaced wholesale—0 starters back—and still did a remarkable job. Now senior Jared Volk, juniors Ryan Brown and Tyler Loos, and sophs Andrew Ness and Aidan Conlon are a veteran O-line. NIU could have a top ten rushing team as long as Lynch stays healthy.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #39    Pass Defense  per-game: #94   Per-attempt: #48
Defense 4 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #19 (raw) #44 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #11	'12 picks: #57
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #47 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #22	'13 picks: #39

The defense has been touted as the reason why Northern Illinois can't repeat their success this season, and that may be true; five of the top seven tacklers are gone. But beyond the first string things look a lot better and the defense might not slip that much. The defensive line takes a hit, losing three starters including Alan Baxter (9.5 sacks) and Sean Progar (8.5 sacks); that suggests a sizable decline in the pass rush. But senior Ken Bishop (7.5 tackles for loss) is back, and Joe Windsor (7 sacks) moves into the starting lineup, so opponents still have reason to fear. Two linebackers are gone including Tyrone Clark (9 tackles for loss) making the front seven fairly spotty. The secondary loses two starters including Rashaan Melvin (17 pass breakups) but two return including #1 tackler Jimmie Ward (104 tackles, 11 pass breakups). Most of the 2nd and 3rd string defense are back, however. We see a decline, but not nearly the disaster that some are projecting.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Matthew Sims (15 of 19 FG) is back but punter Ryan Neir (38.1 average) is gone; his replacement will be junior Tyler Wedel.
• Return Game:  Tommylee Lewis had a touchdown return on a kickoff and averaged 24.5 yards. Angelo Sebastiano (6.3 average on punts) is also back.
• Turnovers projection:  Turnovers might be NIU's friend this year, as we see mildly better luck on fumbles and a few more picks on defense.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #97          2012 Recruiting Rank: #86
It's a shame that NIU couldn't take full advantage of their Orange Bowl season in terms of recruiting, but when Dave Doeren left it put a damper on things. Still, the decline was mild—they still rank in the top half of the MAC—as Rod Carey came from within the program. Carey's work with last year's offensive line (no starters back) got him the head coaching job.

2012 Recap
When Northern Illinois made it to the Orange Bowl, the knock against the Huskies was the opening loss to 4-8 Iowa (18-17) in Chicago. But NIU's entire pre-conference season was less than impressive; they beat I-AA Tennessee-Martin, then struggled to beat 2-10 Army 41-40, and 1-11 Kansas 30-23. Once the MAC season started they began to play better and ran the table in the weak conference. They met fellow 11-1 MAC team Kent State in the title game and won 44-37 in overtime. Surprisingly they rose enough to get a BCS bid which ended in a 31-10 loss to Florida State in the Orange Bowl.

Last year's prediction: We didn't see Jordan Lynch stepping in to replace Chandler Harnish so effectively. In terms of passing we got it about right, but saw the rushing game collapsing due to the O-line losing everybody. We did note: "new QB Lynch will increase his 234 yard output" which certainly occurred. We projected a 7-5 finish, and 3 losses in game-by-game picks.

2013 Outlook

NIU 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	@	Iowa	65%	W
9/14	Sat	@	Idaho	99%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Eastern Illinois	97%	W
9/28	Sat	@	Purdue	69%	W
10/5	Sat	@	*Kent State	77%	W
10/12	Sat	vs.	*Akron	96%	W
10/19	Sat	@	*Central Michigan	92%	W
10/26	Sat	vs.	*Eastern Michigan	99%	W
11/2	Sat	@	*Massachusetts	99%	W
11/13	Wed	vs.	*Ball State	85%	W
11/20	Wed	@	*Toledo	68%	W
11/26	Tue	vs.	*Western Michigan	90%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 15%

This year NIU has nearly a clear path to an undefeated season—if their defense holds up, Jordan Lynch doesn't get hurt, and they can get past Iowa this time. Last year's 18-17 loss was in Chicago and the replay is in Iowa City, but Northern Illinois wasn't nearly as good early last season. Iowa might bounce back and be a lot better, too, but we don't see it. The Huskies should win this one. Either way, we will learn a lot about the team in week one.

The next two games won't tell us anything (unless NIU loses) but then the Huskies travel to Purdue, a team roughly equal to Iowa so they'll have to prove themselves twice. Then they go to Kent State for a rematch of last year's MAC title game, both teams having new head coaches. We think Kent has dropped farther than Northern Illinois.

The next four games are pretty much a cakewalk, and Ball State at home shouldn't present too much of a challenge. The last real hurdle—of only three or four in the year—is Toledo, at Toledo. We favor the Huskies in every game this year, but due to the challenging games that translates to an expected (mean) 10-2 record, though the "mode" or most likely record is 11-1. The odds of going 12-0 are a solid 15%.

Northern Illinois has had three 11+ win seasons in a row so another isn't such an outrageous idea, but fans are thinking this team could be their best. The problem is that last year's Orange Bowl appearance was a fluke and they'd probably have to go undefeated to make it to a BCS bowl again. There are no teams on their schedule that will constitute an impressive win for the computers or pollsters, and likely no 11-1 MAC team to beat in the title game. Chances are NIU wins the MAC again, whether 11-1, or 10-2, and goes to the GoDaddy.com Bowl against the Sun Belt #2 team, which might be Louisiana-Lafayette. When they're 12-0 we can start talking BCS again, not before.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #37 Michigan State Spartans

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Michigan State Spartans  (Big Ten #5; Legends #3)

#37	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#41  Success:#44  Overall:#43
		Record: 7-6	Bowl: Beat TCU 17-16 (Buffalo Wild Wings)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #26 | USA #28 | Lindy's #20 | Athlon #32 | Steele #28
		Record: 8-4	Bowl: Gator (Eligibility odds: 95%)

The Spartans are probably no better than last year but they'll win more of the close games.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #111 (raw) #85 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #92 (adjusted)

The Spartan offense lived up to its name last year, exceeding all expectations on the downside. Without LeVeon Bell things don't look any better.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #86 (raw) #76 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #51
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #51 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #47

Expectations were a little too high for Andrew Maxwell (2,606 yards, 13 TDs, 9 int) prior to last season, but his senior year should be a lot better as long as he holds onto the starting job. Four of last year's top five receivers are back including top duo Bennie Fowler (524 yards) and Keith Mumphery (515). We were a little pessimistic on him last year, rating MSU's passing game #92, but this year we see a decent pickup in production as the receivers should cut down on last year's reported 66(!) drops.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #64 (raw) #59 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #98 (adj.)

LeVeon Bell (1,793 yards, 12 TDs) was one of the nation's top rushers, yet Michigan State's ground game was nothing but average. The answer to that paradox lies in Bell's 382 attempts—he was the Spartan running game. The next in line was Larry Caper with 108 and the leading returnee is Nick Hill with 48. This year it looks like redshirt freshman Riley Bullough will get the nod, or even true freshman Gerald Holmes. The offensive line is in decent shape again with three starters back: full-time starters Jack Allen and Dan France join half-time starters Blake Treadwell and Travis Jackson. They also get 2011 starter Fou Fonoti back for his senior year, but junior Skyler Burkland retired from football due to multiple injuries. The line is strong but if the ground game was just average with NFL-quality Bell, where will it rank with freshmen carrying the ball?

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #2    Pass Defense  per-game: #22   Per-attempt: #5
Defense 6 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #8 (raw) #5 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #76	'12 picks: #40
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #4 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #65	'13 picks: #18

Michigan State can thank its defense for all of its success last year. The rushing defense was phenomenal, competing for the top spot all year before settling at #2 in the nation after adjusting for opponents. The pass-defense wasn't far behind on a per-play basis. The biggest loss to overcome is on the defensive line where the Spartans lose William Gholson (8.5 tackles for loss, 10 pass breakups). Marcus Rush returns to the line but they probably won't be competing for the top spot anymore. At linebacker #1 tackler Max Bullough (111 tackles, 10 tackles for loss) is back along with Denicos Allen. The secondary returns three starters including Isaiah Lewis and the D returns 2/3 of its pass breakups and almost all of its interceptions. Gholson is a huge loss but the defense could be just as strong overall.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Mike Sadler (43.3 average) is back but kicker Dan Conroy (23 of 32 FG) is gone; true frosh Michael Geiger, ranked the 1st or 2nd-best recruit in the nation at kicker, will replace him.
• Return Game:  RB Nick Hill handled both kickoffs (21.6 average) and punts (8.9) along with Andre Sims (8.4 on punts). WR Bennie Fowler will join on kickoffs.
• Turnovers projection:  Not much difference seen, though the defense might increase its interceptions.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #55          2012 Recruiting Rank: #47
Mark Dantonio couldn't quite sustain double-digit winning seasons here, and recruiting has to be partly to blame. In the Big Ten, mediocre recruiting classes are going to catch up to you sooner or later; you can't keep winning 10 games in a major conference if you don't recruit at a high level. Maybe one side of the ball (the defense) can excel at a top ten level while the other side suffers. This year's class ranks in the bottom half of the conference. Of his three consensus blue chips, two are defensive players (linebackers) and one is a quarterback.

2012 Recap
Michigan State kicked off with their best win, topping 10-2 Boise State 17-13. Later they would beat Wisconsin 16-13 in overtime. Other than that, their other bowl-team wins were Central Michigan (41-7) and Minnesota (26-10). They also had a disappointing double overtime loss to 4-8 Iowa at home. They lost to two undefeated teams, Notre Dame and Ohio State, with the loss to the Irish their only game that wasn't close. They lost to the Buckeyes by a point, to Michigan by 2 points, to Nebraska by 4, and Northwestern by 3. A few points here and there and the Spartans could have lived up to—or exceeded—their pre-season expectations.

Last year's prediction: We correctly forecast gains in the running game and a decline in passing, but underestimated how far the scoring offense would fall (we had it falling from #35 to #60; it fell to #85). We ranked the Spartans #25, lower than almost anyone else but still too high as we projected an 8-4 record.

2013 Outlook

Michigan State 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Western Michigan	89%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	South Florida	90%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Youngstown State	92%	W
9/21	Sat	@	Notre Dame	26%	L
10/5	Sat	@	*Iowa	66%	W
10/12	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	66%	W
10/19	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	82%	W
10/26	Sat	@	*Illinois	88%	W
11/2	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	37%	L
11/16	Sat	@	*Nebraska	45%	L
11/23	Sat	@	*Northwestern	30%	L
11/30	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	77%	W
Straight up: 8-4  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 95%

This year's prediction is almost a carbon copy of last year's—an 8-4 record, either game-by-game or cumulative, and a 95% chance of bowl eligibility. The question is can Michigan State live up to it this time?

The first three games should be easy wins at home, but that won't prepare them very well for a road game against Notre Dame. Iowa on the road should be easier than the Irish but the Hawkeyes beat the Spartans in East Lansing last year. And Indiana will be a much-improved team. Still, the Spartans can reasonably hope to be 7-1 after beating Purdue and Illinois, and 4-0 in the Big Ten.

Then they face three tough games in a row: Michigan at home, and Nebraska and Northwestern on the road. We have all three as losses but all are in play and the Spartans will need wins over that stretch to compete for the Legends division title. Minnesota at home should be another win.

That puts them at 8-4, and if they end up the #5 Big Ten team they'll go to the Gator Bowl and face an SEC team, perhaps LSU.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #38 Utah State Aggies

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Utah State Aggies  (Mountain West #1; Mountain #1)

#38	2012 Results	AP #16 USA #17	Strength:#25  Success:#17  Overall:#20
		Record: 11-2	Bowl: Beat Toledo 41-15 (Potato)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #37 | USA #35 | Lindy's #45 | Athlon #60 | Steele #70
		Record: 9-3	Bowl: Las Vegas (Eligibility odds: 99%)

Utah State returns a lot of starters but poor recruiting might have them struggling to maintain their high level. This year, however, looks like another success story.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #31 (raw) #49 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #49 (adjusted)

Lack of receivers hits the passing game but a solid O-line keeps things running.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #39 (raw) #45 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #53
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #63 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #32

Chuckie Keeton (3,373 yards, 27 TDs, 9 int) took a huge step forward in his sophomore year. The problem in his junior year is that most of the guys who caught the balls he threw are no longer on the team. Matt Austin (729 yards), RB Kerwynn Williams (697 yards), and Chuck Jacobs (608)—who had five TD catches each—are all gone. In fact the top five pass catchers from a year ago are gone, leaving Travis Reynolds (244) and three others with 100+ to soldier on. There is some good news—the offensive line returns all five starters and should offer solid protection—but that's not enough to offset the losses at receiver. The passing game looks to be down a few levels.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #26 (raw) #41 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #39 (adj.)

Last year's top rusher was Kerwynn Williams (1,512 yards, 15 TDs) by a mile, followed by QB Chuckie Keaton (619 yards, 8 TDs). #3 Joe Hill (269, 7) may get the call or perhaps JUCO Rashad Hall will be the feature back. The offensive line should pave the way for whoever it is, as five starters—four of them seniors—are back. Tyler Larsen, Kyle Whimpey, Jamie Markosian, and Eric Schultz join junior Kevin Whimpey. It's hard to replace a 1,000-yard back let alone a 1,500-yard back but Hill had a 6.3 average and will be running behind a great line, and Keeton will be a major source of yardage again. Total production from the ground game might be about the same.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #32    Pass Defense  per-game: #29   Per-attempt: #9
Defense 7 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #7 (raw) #15 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #8	'12 picks: #48
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #9 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #4	'13 picks: #44

Utah State's defense was incredible last year, easily top 25 quality, good against the run and the pass and with a top ten pass rush. That pass rush could get even better this season as two starters are back in the 3-4 D-line including Connor Williams (6 sacks), and backup Jordan Nielsen (5 sacks) moves into the open slot. Three starters are back at linebacker including the team's top two tacklers, Jake Doughty (109 tackles) and Zach Vigil (105 tackles, 5.5 sacks). They do lose Bojay Filimoeatu (5 sacks) there. The secondary suffers a huge loss in Will Davis (17 pass breakups, 5 interceptions) but two starters are back including Nevin Lawson (10 pass breakups) and 2011 starter Maurice Alexander is back. We have the Aggie D in the top 10 in the nation this year.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Nick Diaz (10 of 13 FG) is back but punter Tyler Bennett (41.9 ave) is gone; junior Jaron Bentrude is his replacement.
• Return Game:  Last year's main return men (Chuck Jacobs, 24.1 on kickoffs, Cameron Webb, 8.8 ave on punts) are gone and CB Nevin Lawson and WR Bruce Natson should replace them.
• Turnovers projection:  We see no reason to down- or upgrade the team based on turnovers from last year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #102          2012 Recruiting Rank: #124
Proving that last year's recruiting couldn't get any worse, new coach Matt Wells brings in an improved class bucking the transition-year curse. It helps that he was already with the program (offensive coordinator)—and that he had nowhere to go but up from last year's tiny class. The class still ranks in the bottom half of the Mountain West. In fact, the last two years of recruiting are probably the main reason for the team's downgrade this year—despite returning a lot of starters, not much new blood comes in to sustain them in case of injuries, etc. Of course, the players that are stars right now weren't very highly-touted coming out of high school, either.

2012 Recap 
Beating Southern Utah didn't gain the Aggies any converts, but beating Utah 27-20 in overtime did—and losing to Wisconsin 16-14 on a missed field goal probably got Gary Anderson his new job. After that, Utah State almost won out, losing to BYU 6-3 for their second close road loss. They beat San Jose State 49-27 and Louisiana Tech 48-41 in overtime, then blasted Toledo 41-15 in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl to finish 11-2.

Last year's prediction: We thought the team would be about the same as in 2011—7-5. We picked the Wisconsin and BYU losses, and thought Utah and Louisiana Tech would beat the Aggies, too. We did NOT see the defense becoming such a force, either.

2013 Outlook

Utah State 2013 schedule & forecast
8/29	Thu	@	Utah	63%	W
9/7	Sat	@	*Air Force	92%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Weber State	99%	W
9/21	Sat	@	USC	24%	L
9/27	Fri	@	*San Jose State	48%	L
10/4	Fri	vs.	BYU	52%	W
10/12	Sat	vs.	*Boise State	67%	W
10/19	Sat	@	*New Mexico	91%	W
11/2	Sat	vs.	*Hawaii	95%	W
11/9	Sat	@	*UNLV	83%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Colorado State	82%	W
11/30	Sat	vs.	*Wyoming	91%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 9-3  Odds of 12-0: 1%

The Aggies start the season with four road games in the first five weeks. Rival Utah will be a tough game but the Aggies can do it again. Air Force and especially Weber State shouldn't be a problem. Then Utah State faces USC and San Jose State in back-to-back road games; both look like losses from here.

They get BYU at home this time and it might be enough to get a win, or maybe not. If not, then the game-by-game tally will match the cumulative estimate of 9-3. Boise State follows but that's a home game and there's no reason to concede that one. If they get past the first half of the season it should be smooth sailing the rest of the way as the last five opponents are very soft. In fact, if they somehow win the first seven games their pre-season 1% chance of going undefeated rises to 53%.

We rate Utah State as the best team in the Mountain West, so we assume they win the title and go to the Las Vegas Bowl vs. the #5 Pac-12 team, perhaps Stanford—or USC again.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #39 Mississippi State Bulldogs

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Mississippi State Bulldogs  (SEC #10; West #5)

#39	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#44  Success:#55  Overall:#45
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Lost to Northwestern 34-20 (Gator)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA #43 | Lindy's #46 | Athlon #41 | Steele #44
		Record: 6-6	Bowl: Independence (Eligibility odds: 64%)

It's looking like another tough year in the SEC for Mississippi State.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #59 (raw) #51 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #42 (adjusted)

Just as Mississippi State was looking like an emerging passing team under Tyler Russell, they might shift gears and become a running team.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #58 (raw) #54 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #40
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #76 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #31

QB Tyler Russell (2,897 yards, 24 TDs, 10 int) is back as a senior, but last year's top four receivers are gone. Chad Bumphis led with 922 yards (12 TDs) and Chris Smith was #2 with 564. That leaves TE Malcolm Johnson (171 yards) the leading returnee; three others also topped 100 yards. Limiting the damage will be the offensive line which should offer solid protection this season, but we think Russell is a longshot to match his 2012 season.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #84 (raw) #71 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #36 (adj.)

The running back corps is the opposite of the receiver corp. Five players topped 100 yards and all five are back led by LaDarius Perkins (1,024 yards, 8 TDs). The offensive line returns four full-time starters from last year: Gabe Jackson, Charles Siddoway, Blaine Clausell, and Dillon Day. The other starter, Tobias Smith, was granted a sixth year and might play or should at least be available in case of depth emergencies. All signs point to a stronger running game in 2013.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #50    Pass Defense  per-game: #48   Per-attempt: #55
Defense 5 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #35 (raw) #29 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #96	'12 picks: #11
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #48 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #89	'13 picks: #45

The Bulldog defensive line has two starters back to the 4-3 including Denico Autry and may make small gains in sacks and rush defense. At linebacker #1 tackler Cameron Lawrence (120 tackles) is gone along with backup Chris Hughes (dismissed) but two starters including #2 tackler Benardrick McKinney (102 tackles) are back. The secondary is the weak spot as three starters are gone including Johnthan Banks (4 int) and Darius Slay (5 int), and we see the interception totals (19 last year) plunging. The defense will probably give up quite a few more points this season.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Devon Bell (14 of 21 FG) and Baker Swedenburg (41.1 yd punting average) are both back.
• Return Game:  Jameon Lewis had a touchdown return on a kickoff and averaged 25.9 yards. Johnthan Banks averaged 8.8 on punts and he departs. Lewis and LaDarius Perkins (20.3 on kickoffs) will be the main return men this year.
• Turnovers projection:  Mississippi State was very lucky on fumbles last season at +7; that probably won't happen this year, nor will the defense match last year's 19 picks as they lose last year's interception leader (Slay), their career interception leader (Banks), about 60% of their total pass defenses (breakups + picks).

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #35          2012 Recruiting Rank: #14
Dan Mullen's 2013 class isn't close to his 2012 class, but you can't reach for the stars every year. In the SEC, if you're outside the top 25 nationally you will rank in the lower half of the conference. They also lost blue chip QB Cord Sandberg who decided to play baseball instead. But they still have Chris Jones of Houston, one of the highest-rated defensive linemen in the country.

2012 Recap
Mississippi State also started the year 5-0, in fact they went 7-0. But they didn't beat a team that finished with a winning record until they topped Middle Tennessee State 45-3. That was their only impressive win, however, and once they faced the gauntlet of top ten teams that followed—Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU—they were 7-3 and beaten down by a total score of 113-37. The Bulldogs rebounded big over Arkansas, but facing rival Ole Miss they fell 41-24 to finish 8-4. They lost to Northwestern in the Gator Bowl 34-20.

Last year's prediction: We ranked the Bulldogs #40 last year and that was pretty accurate (they finished #44 in Strength). Our projection was for a 7-5 season, and the year went pretty much as we expected, with a lot of wins up front followed by a losing streak. We had the Tennessee, Arkansas, and Mississippi picks wrong.

2013 Outlook

Mississippi State 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	N	Oklahoma State	15%	L
9/7	Sat	vs.	Alcorn State	100%	W
9/14	Sat	@	*Auburn	57%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Troy	97%	W
10/5	Sat	vs.	*LSU	37%	L
10/12	Sat	vs.	Bowling Green	80%	W
10/26	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	76%	W
11/2	Sat	@	*South Carolina	20%	L
11/9	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	6%	L
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	6%	L
11/23	Sat	@	*Arkansas	73%	W
11/28	Thu	vs.	*Mississippi	30%	L
Straight up: 6-6  Cume: 6-6  Bowl eligible: 64%

This year looks 6-6 unless the Bulldogs are considerably better than we think. Simply because we can see six losses pretty clearly.

First, Oklahoma State in Houston. Maybe the Cowboys won't be as good; it's also the first game. But that looks like a loss. LSU at home is a potential upset win, but don't count on it. Then late in the year another guantlet of tough teams (I guess it's gantlet really, but that sounds stupid): South Carolina, Texas A&M, and Alabama, just like last year. And Ole Miss at home, a loss? It could happen.

The wins: Alcorn State (4-7 FCS last year) is awful. Troy, Bowling Green, Kentucky, and Arkansas have to be wins. Then everything rests on the early game at Auburn. We have the Bulldogs winning that one so we give them a 6-6 record and a bowl game, which, as the #10 SEC team, would be the Independence Bowl (i.e., the AdvoCare V100 Bowl, bleh) vs. the #7 ACC team which could be Boston College.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #44 San Jose State Spartans

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

San Jose State Spartans  (Mountain West #2; West #1)

#44	2012 Results	AP #21 USA #21	Strength:#43  Success:#16  Overall:#32
		Record: 11-2	Bowl: Beat Bowling Green 29-20 (Military)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA #40 | Lindy's #42 | Athlon #63 | Steele #81
		Record: 8-4	Bowl: Poinsettia (Eligibility odds: 97%)

There's no consensus on San Jose State's 2013 campaign; we agree with Lindy's that there needn't be a dropoff in quality, while Athlon and especially Phil Steele see a plunge.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #26 (raw) #39 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #26 (adjusted)

New head coach Ron Caragher is dumping the pistol formation for pro-style sets to balance the offense. In terms of play calling the offense already was balanced, and we bet the disparity in production will remain regardless of formation.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #6 (raw) #7 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #71
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #4 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #55

David Fales (4,193 yards, 33 TDs, 9 int) had an incredible season at quarterback, completing 73% of his attempts, and he's back for his senior year. Of the four main targets in 2012, three are back: #1 Noel Grigsby (1,307 yards, 9 TDs), #3 Chandler Jones (691 yards, 11 TDs), and #4 Jabari Carr (639 yards). Tight end Ryan Otten (#2 w/742) departs. The O-line should protect better this season, too. SJSU could have a top-five passing attach in 2013.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #109 (raw) #113 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #119 (adj.)

De'Leon Eskridge (1,025 yards, 11 TDs) departs after a solid showing, leaving #2 Tyler Ervin (205 yards) the expected starter. Wildcat QB Blake Jurich had 174. The offensive line helps out with four returning starters—all seniors—in Reuben Hasani, Nicholas Kaspar, Ryan Jones, and Jon Meyer. Despite a strong line, replacing a 1,000 yard rusher isn't easy and the ground game could get weaker.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #27    Pass Defense  per-game: #63   Per-attempt: #42
Defense 5 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #26 (raw) #45 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #9	'12 picks: #54
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #58 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #20	'13 picks: #42

As the Spartans move from a 4-3 to a 3-4, the defensive line undergoes a transformation from the group that spearheaded 42 sacks last year. Travis Johnson (13 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss) is gone along with David Tuitupou (5.5 sacks), but Travis Raciti (8.5 sacks) returns, and Anthony Larceval (6.5 sacks) is back with the team after weathering an illness that was previously expected to keep him out this season. Two starting linebackers return to fill the four slots, including top tackler Keith Smith (97 tackles) but Vince Buhagiar will miss the season due to shoulder surgery. The secondary returns only one starter but he's important: Bene Benwikere (7.5 tackles for loss, 7 interceptions) is back and backup Jimmy Pruit led with 11 pass breakups as a freshman. The defense will look different but overall should be nearly as strong.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Austin Lopez couldn't have been much better in 2012, hitting all 17 of his field goal attempts (he did miss 3 of 57 PATs, however). Harrison Waid averaged 42.3 yards per punt. Both are back.
• Return Game:  Tyler Ervin had 2 touchdown returns last year to boost his kickoff return average to 27.2 yards. Bene Benwikere will take over from departing CB Ronnie Yell (2.8 average) on punts.
• Turnovers projection:  San Jose State had average luck on fumbles, so that shouldn't change. Their QB threw just 9 interceptions in 451 attempts, so their isn't all that much room for improvement. The defense could have a few more picks but overall we don't see a big difference.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #117          2012 Recruiting Rank: #105
Unfortunately SJSU couldn't reap any recruiting benefits from their double-digit winning season as Mike McIntyre left for Colorado and new head coach Ron Caragher suffers the transition-year blues. This year's class ranks pretty much last in the Mountain West. A big rebound for next year already looks like it's in the works, especially if the Spartans have another successful year. Caragher was head coach at San Diego (9-3 last year) and the big question this year is what effect he will have on the program's new-found success.

2012 Recap
San Jose State tried to put the college football world on notice in the very first game, nearly beating Stanford on the road before falling 20-17. But the general reaction was that the Cardinal were in for a rough season. People started to notice when they were 4-1 after shutting out Navy, 12-0, but again that dropped Navy to 1-3 observers were more concerned about what might be wrong with the Midshipmen. And the Spartans lost to Utah State 49-27 right after. The next four wins were over cupcake opponents so it wasn't until they beat BYU 20-14 to go 9-2 that some took them seriously. A 52-43 win over Louisiana Tech put them at 10-2; beating Bowling Green in the Military Bowl gave them 11 wins on the season, and Mike McIntyre was snatched up as the latest sacrifice to the Colorado football gods.

Last year's prediction: We missed the boat on SJSU's offensive and defensive rennaisance, ranking them #101. Still, we projected a 6-6 year and bowl eligibility, largely because of the very soft middle in their schedule. So we predicted both their losses correctly; it's just that we added four more that didn't happen.

2013 Outlook

San Jose State 2013 schedule & forecast
8/29	Thu	vs.	Sacramento State	97%	W
9/7	Sat	@	Stanford	17%	L
9/21	Sat	@	Minnesota	54%	W
9/27	Fri	vs.	*Utah State	52%	W
10/5	Sat	@	*Hawaii	85%	W
10/12	Sat	@	*Colorado State	62%	W
10/26	Sat	vs.	*Wyoming	88%	W
11/2	Sat	@	*UNLV	78%	W
11/9	Sat	vs.	*San Diego State	62%	W
11/16	Sat	@	*Nevada	82%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	Navy	90%	W
11/29	Fri	vs.	*Fresno State	62%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 97%

If San Jose State really is almost as good as last year, then it should be another great season. We have them favored in 11 of 12 games; due to several close calls the cumulative projection is for an 8-4 finish.

The opener vs. Sacramento State is followed by what might be the Spartans' three toughest challenges. Certainly Stanford will be favored again, and will probably win by more than 3 points this time around. The road game at Minnesota and home stand vs. Utah State are key games in determining just how good SJSU can be. At this point anything from 3-1 to 1-3 would not be surprising.

Then the schedule has another "soft middle" and 5 of the last 8 games are pretty solid wins. The tougher exceptions are Colorado State, San Diego State, and Fresno State. They get the latter two at home so we favor them in all three. The Spartans even have almost a 1% chance to go 12-0, but a 2% chance to miss a bowl game completely.

If they finish #2 in the Mountain West they'll go to the Poinsettia Bowl. Army is supposed to be the opponent there but we don't think they'll be eligible, so an at-large team would be selected.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #41 Nebraska Cornhuskers

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Nebraska Cornhuskers  (Big Ten #6; Legends #4)

#41	2012 Results	AP #25 USA #23	Strength:#28  Success:#18  Overall:#25
		Record: 10-4	Bowl: Lost to Georgia 45-31 (Capital One)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #18 | USA #18 | Lindy's #21 | Athlon #21 | Steele #27
		Record: 8-4	Bowl: Car Care (Eligibility odds: 94%)

A problematic defense could be a big issue for Nebraska, which is why we rank them outside the top 25. They'll still have a solid bowl season, regardless as the offense ought to be great.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #25 (raw) #16 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #13 (adjusted)

A top ten running game and improved passing keep Nebraska's offense potent.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #90 (raw) #82 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #91
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #57 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #92

Taylor Martinez (2,871 yards, 23 TDs, 12 int) has increased his passing totals each year since taking over as starter his freshman year and he's already Nebraska's all-time yardage leader. Given Nebraska's short history as a passing team that doesn't say much but Martinez has become more efficient too. He has last year's top three targets back including Kenny Bell (863 yards, 8 TDs). Martinez has had problems weathering blitzes and the line gave up 35 sacks last year; solve that issue and he could really have a great year, but even so we see an improved passing game.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #8 (raw) #7 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #7 (adj.)

With Ameer Abdullah (1,137 yards, 8 TDs) back with QB Taylor Martinez (1,019 yards, 10 TDs), Nebraska already has an incredible running game, even as Rex Burkhead's career comes to a close after an injury-filled 2012 (675 yards). Two other backs topped 300 yards and one returns, so the cupboard is fuller than most teams can dream of. The offensive line returns three starters: Brent Qvale, Jeremiah Sirles, and Spencer Long, all seniors, and Andrew Rodriguez was a half-time starter in 2011.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #79    Pass Defense  per-game: #11   Per-attempt: #17
Defense 4 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #60 (raw) #57 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #55	'12 picks: #46
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #96 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #90	'13 picks: #76

After Bo Pelini briefly revived the "Blackshirts" a few years ago Nebraska's D has taken a downward turn again, giving up huge totals against Ohio State (63) and Wisconsin (70) last year. The problem was the rushing defense and this year things could remain ugly—or get worse—as only one starter returns among the defensive line and linebackers. Losing Eric Martin (8.5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss) and Cameron Meredith (5 sacks) from the D-line sinks Nebraska's quarterback pressure, while at linebacker #1 tackler Will Compton (110 tackles) departs. The pass defense was stellar, though, and three starters return (Nebraska used a nickelback a lot last year) including Ciante Evans (leading returning tackler with 56; 8 pass breakups) while #2 tackler Daimion Stafford is gone. Even so, the team loses most of its pass defenses and interceptions could drop. Overall the defense loses its top five tacklers from last year and Pelini is going to have to work some magic to keep it from declining further. Blackshirts territory looks a few rebuilding years away at least.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Brett Maher (20 of 27 FG, 41.8 punting average) departs and replacing him will be sophomore kicker Mauro Bondi and redshirt freshman punter Sam Foltz.
• Return Game:  RB Ameer Abdullah averaged 21.2 yards on kickoffs and had a touchdown return to amp his punt return average (13.1). He's back and WRs Kenny Bell (23.2 on kickoffs) and Jamal Turner will also take reps.
• Turnovers projection:  Nebraska's fumbling problems seem to persist rather than revert as most teams issues do, since fumble recovery is random. But the Huskers seem to fumble a lot and last year was no exception as they fumbled 35 times to their opponents' 21; that should yield about a -7 margin, yet they ended up -12. Even if their recovery is more average this year the defense might pick off fewer passes so it's probably a wash.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #13          2012 Recruiting Rank: #44
Bo Pelini brought in the best class since he's been at Nebraska, ranking just behind Michigan and Ohio State in the Big Ten. He didn't get any of the uber-blue chips the others did but land four consensus blue chips; two are running backs and won't be needed this year, but defensive lineman Randy Gregory from Arizona and linebacker Josh Banderas from Lincoln could help out a lot.

2012 Recap 
In week one the 'Huskers beat Southern Miss (12-2 last year) 49-20, but the Golden Eagles finished 0-12 so it was really no big deal. And in week 2 they lost to UCLA 36-30. They crushed 9-3 Sun Belt champ Arkansas State 42-13, and scored 73 on hapless Idaho State, then beat Wisconsin 30-27 after coming back from 17 points down with Martinez leading the way. The next week they hit bottom against Ohio State, losing 63-38, but another big comeback against Northwestern (29-28) got them on the right track. They won out from there, beating Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, and Minnesota to get in the Big Ten title game, a rematch against Wisconsin. That game was their 2nd defensive meltdown, and their worst game of the year by far, a 70-31 loss. They hung with Georgia most of the game but lost 45-31.

Last year's prediction: We actually overrated Nebraska last year, putting them at #15, even as our projection for the season fell short at 8-4 (Nebraska finished the regular season at 10-2). Game-by-game we predicted a 9-3 result with losses to Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan, which is 2 out of 3 if you cheat and count the Big Ten title game loss to the Badgers.

2013 Outlook

Nebraska 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Wyoming	90%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	Southern Miss	97%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	UCLA	41%	L
9/21	Sat	vs.	South Dakota St.	84%	W
10/5	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	93%	W
10/12	Sat	@	*Purdue	64%	W
10/26	Sat	@	*Minnesota	58%	W
11/2	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	42%	L
11/9	Sat	@	*Michigan	19%	L
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	55%	W
11/23	Sat	@	*Penn State	51%	W
11/30	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	77%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 94%

Nebraska has an easier schedule this year; despite ranking them 25+ spots lower than we did last pre-season, we issue similar projections for their record. Nebraska should be at least 5-1 midway through this season but wins may be harder to come by in the 2nd half.

Wyoming and Southern Miss at home should function as warmups for UCLA's visit. The latter should be a good game but we see the Bruins good enough to win even in Lincoln. South Dakota State and Illinois wrap up the Huskers' long home stand where they will go at least 4-1.

The first two road games (Purdue, Minnesota) could be tough but are winnable. Northwestern at home is a big challenge and the Wildcats may be good enough to hand Nebraska another home loss. A win over Michigan in Ann Arbor is probably too much to ask this year, but Michigan State at home should be a close win. The game at Penn State is probably the tightest contest of the year, essentially a coin flip, and Iowa at home should be manageable.

That puts the Cornhuskers around 8-4 or 9-3, easily good enough for a bowl game but not quite enough for the Big Ten title game. If they finish the #6 Big Ten team they'll go to the Meineke Car Care Bowl and face a Big Twelve team, maybe Baylor or Kansas State.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #42 Indiana Hoosiers

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Indiana Hoosiers  (Big Ten #7; Leaders #3)

#42	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#77  Success:#88  Overall:#83
		Record: 4-8	Bowl: None
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #63 | Athlon #59 | Steele #53
		Record: 7-5	Bowl: Meineke Car Care (Eligibility odds: 84%)

With their best team in years (decades?) Indiana has a great opportunity to reach its 2nd bowl game since 1993.

Offense 9 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #50 (raw) #34 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #15 (adjusted)

The Hoosiers have an embarrassment of riches at quarterback.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #17 (raw) #18 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #46
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #2 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #48

Cameron Coffman (2,734 yards, 15 TDs, 11 int) had the kind of year that would normally have Hoosier football fans speculating about his potential for the coming season, but he might not be the starter in 2013. That could be Nate Sudfeld (632 yards, 7 TDs, 1 int) who was great as a freshman, or Tre Roberson (368, 2:1, 937 in 2011) the starter early in 2012 before injury (broken leg). Whoever it is will have very reliable backups and a full complement of receivers from last year including Cody Latimer (805 yards, 6 TDs), Shane Wynn (660 yards, 6 TDs), and Kofi Hughes (639). Four others with 150+ receiving yards are back, too. Add in an talented young offensive line and Indiana's passing game could be among the best in the nation; it certainly would be if you take injury risk into consideration, as they can survive the kind of bad luck that has decimated teams in the past.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #96 (raw) #83 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #64 (adj.)

The running back corps looks a lot like the receiver corps; that is, everyone is back. Only one player had over 500 yards (Stephen Houston, 749, 12 TDs) but four others had over 100 and all of them return. One is QB Roberson who had 133 (11.1 average) in just 2 games (426 in 2011). The offensive line started two freshmen last year and three sophomores shared 2 positions, so they are young and improving, but they recently lost one of last year's freshman starters, Dan Feeney, to a foot injury. Sophomore Jason Spriggs returns along with junior Peyton Eckert while juniors Bernard Taylor and Colin Rahrig split the left guard position last season. The ground game should still be much better and depending on how much Roberson (the only running QB) plays it could really take off.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #116    Pass Defense  per-game: #112   Per-attempt: #123
Defense 7 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #107 (raw) #109 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #67	'12 picks: #98
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #97 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #60	'13 picks: #82

Needless to say it was Indiana's defense that prevented them from getting over the hump last season. It won't be great this year but it will be better, though some recent losses have tempered that pronouncement. The defensive line loses two key starters, Adam Replogle (5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss) and Larry Black (4, 8), begging the question of whether the piss-poor rushing defense will improve. But at linebacker the situation is a lot better as last year's group is back, or was until Chase Hoobler went out with a stress fracture; he'll miss half the season, maybe all of it. More bad news hit the secondary as Antonio Marshall was dismissed, but otherwise the backfield is in good shape with Greg Heben, last year's top tackler (91 tackles) returning. The defense is still going to be a problem and the offense will have to win games by itself at times, but they'll have an easier time doing so.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Mitch Ewald (15 of 20 FG last year) is back for his senior year and punter Erich Toth (39.5 average) returns as a sophomore.
• Return Game:  Tevin Coleman had a 96-yard TD return last year while averaging 23.6 yards per kickoff return. Nick Stoner averaged 5.8 on punt returns and Shane Wynn, who had a TD return in 2011, may handle more this year.
• Turnovers projection:  The defense should have a lot more than last year's 7 interceptions.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #45          2012 Recruiting Rank: #48
Kevin Wilson has been recruiting pretty well at Indiana and this year is no exception, ranking right in the thick of things in the Big Ten. This year's group even includes some blue chips, though WR Taj Williams got away (academics). That leaves a trio of defensive players, all from Indianapolis, as the top recruits; all of them could see time this year as the Hoosiers try to shore up the defense.

2012 Recap 
The Hoosiers held off Indiana State, 24-17, and crushed UMass 45-6 but a 41-39 loss to Ball State ushered in the losses and they continued. By the time they fell to Navy 31-30 Indiana was 2-5. They beat Illinois 31-17 on the road and edged Iowa at home 24-21 before dropping the last three. Indiana's offense kept them in almost every game as four of their losses were by a touchdown or less, including a 52-49 loss to 12-0 Ohio State.

Last year's prediction: We were pretty close on their record, projecting a 3-9 season, but we didn't think many of the losses would be close; we ranked Indiana #109, much worse than they turned out to be. We saw improvement in the offense but not nearly to the extent that occurred.

2013 Outlook

Indiana 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Indiana State	87%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	Navy	90%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Bowling Green	76%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Missouri	46%	L
10/5	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	65%	W
10/12	Sat	@	*Michigan State	34%	L
10/19	Sat	@	*Michigan	17%	L
11/2	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	70%	W
11/9	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	92%	W
11/16	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	24%	L
11/23	Sat	@	*Ohio State	9%	L
11/30	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	76%	W
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 84%

Indiana's schedule this year is very favorable—they have 8 home games, and the teams they face on the road they probably wouldn't beat at home anyway.

The Hoosiers kick off against Indiana State, and this year it shouldn't be much of a game. They can beat Navy and Bowling Green, too, but depending on how good those teams are they could be tough. They real home-game challenge—the only one we don't make them a fairly solid favorite in—is Missouri, basically a 50/50 proposition. They can handle Penn State, too, and could be 5-0 at this point, though 4-1 is more realistic.

Back-to-back road games at Michigan State and Michigan follow, and both will probably be losses since those are better teams and will be their first games away from home. Later road games against Wisconsin and Ohio State are even more daunting. But even conceding those four, closing out the home season against Minnesota, Illinois, and Purdue should get them to bowl eligibility with room to spare.

We rank Indiana #7 in the Big Ten which puts them in line for the Meineke Care Care of Texas Bowl against a Big Twelve team, perhaps Texas Tech.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #46 Cincinnati Bearcats

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Cincinnati Bearcats  (American #2)

#46	2012 Results	AP #28 USA #22	Strength:#45  Success:#25  Overall:#29
		Record: 10-3	Bowl: Beat Duke 48-34 (Belk)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #39 | USA #49 | Lindy's #40 | Athlon #35 | Steele #50
		Record: 9-3	Bowl: Russell Athletic (Eligibility odds: 99%)

It could come down to Cincy vs. Louisville for the American Athletic's inaugural title.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #38 (raw) #52 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #55 (adjusted)

A strong offensive line will make up for losses at the skill positions and prevent too much decline in the offense. It will also give new coach Tommy Tuberville flexibility in the type of offense he wants to run.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #55 (raw) #57 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #13
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #50 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #13

Munchie Legaux (1,716 yards, 13 TDs, 9 int) started the season at QB and Brendon Kay (1,298 yards, 10 TDs, 2 int) finished it there. Both are back and Kay has the solid inside track even with the head coaching change. Receivers Travis Kelce (722 yards, 8 TDs) and Kenbrell Thompkins (541 yards) are gone but #3 Anthony McClung (539) returns with three others who had > 100 yards. The offensive line was great last year (15 sacks allowed) and should be even better this year as four starters return. There are enough pieces here to make for a good gain in production due to extra reps; Tuberville won't pass here as much as he did at Texas Tech, but he probably will increase the passing game's share of plays, moving it toward 50/50.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #30 (raw) #31 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #60 (adj.)

The running game loses George Winn (1,334 yards) but three others combined for over 1,000 yards—including QBs Legaux and Kay, both of whom averaged over 6 yards per carry. The offensive line returns four starters, including 2 seniors, Sam Longo and Austen Bujnoch. Junior Eric Lefeld and sophomore Parker Ehinger are back, too. Dan Sprangue suffered a knee injury in fall camp. Though the line will be improved, Tuberville is installing some pro-style sets so the Bearcats will be running the ball less, and minus Winn.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #61    Pass Defense  per-game: #86   Per-attempt: #39
Defense 6 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #15 (raw) #33 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #39	'12 picks: #27
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #52 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #53	'13 picks: #30

The Bearcats lose their two top sack specialists from the defensive line this year, Dan Giordano and Walter Stewart who both had 5; the team's total (31) is likely to fall. At linebacker Maalik Bomar is gone but two starters are back including #1 tackler Greg Blair (138 tackles). In the secondary two starters are back including Deven Drane. Overall the D loses three of its top four tacklers and looks weaker.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker Tony Milano (17 of 22 FG) and punter Pat O'Donnell (41.8 average) are back.
• Return Game:  Running back R.D. Abernathy averaged 25 yards per kickoff return last year (and had a touchdown return in 2011); WR Anthony McClung averaged 9.9 yards per punt return. Both are back.
• Turnovers projection:  Not much difference expected from last year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #64          2012 Recruiting Rank: #32
Tommy Tuberville will probably like it in Cincy better than he did at Texas Tech, where he was an outsider trying to fit in. He did all right at Texas Tech but the program never quite hit its stride like he did at Auburn. This year's recruiting class is typical of the transition-year effect and ranks in the middle of the pack for the American Athletic Conference.

2012 Recap 
Cincinnati started off by winning 5 straight (including a 27-24 win over Virginia Tech) but their first loss came in a 29-22 upset at Toledo. The Bearcats lost the next week to Louisville in overtime and hopes of a BCS bowl were dashed. Still they finished in typical Cincinnati style, winning 4 of 5 to give themselves a shot at another 10-win season (5th in 6 years). In the Belk Bowl they almost lost to Duke but got a couple of lucky plays to turn a tie game with 1 minute left into a 14-point edge at the end.

Last year's prediction: It wasn't too far off, with the Bearcats ranked #50 (they finished #45 despite a much better Success of #25), and an 8-4 projection.

2013 Outlook

Cincinnati 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Purdue	74%	W
9/7	Sat	@	Illinois	84%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Northwestern State	99%	W
9/21	Sat	@	Miami (Ohio)	90%	W
10/5	Sat	@	*South Florida	71%	W
10/11	Fri	vs.	*Temple	87%	W
10/19	Sat	vs.	*Connecticut	80%	W
10/30	Wed	@	*Memphis	71%	W
11/9	Sat	vs.	*SMU	73%	W
11/16	Sat	@	*Rutgers	60%	W
11/23	Sat	@	*Houston	73%	W
12/5	Thu	vs.	*Louisville	36%	L
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3   Chance of 12-0: 2%

Cincinnati doesn't have a very tough schedule in 2013, and that means they can expect to win a lot of games. They host Purdue, which should be a much tougher game than traveling to Illinois, and they're capable of winning both. Northwestern State and Miami (Ohio) should be cakewalks if the Bearcats are to be any good this season.

Though upsets are clearly possible it doesn't get tough until they play at Rutgers, and they should win that one, too and could even be undefeated when they face Louisville in December. That game is at home which gives them a good chance but we give it to the Cardinals. Still, that's 11-1—or, if you're more conservative, 9-3 as per the cumulative projection.

Cincy has 6 "wins" that rate well above a 3 in 4 chance, so bowl eligibility should be a foregone conclusion. Their odds of going 12-0 are only about 3%, however. As the #2 team in the AAC Cincy would go to the Russell Athletic Bowl vs. the #3 ACC team, perhaps Miami (FL).

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #43 Tennessee Volunteers

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Tennessee Volunteers  (SEC #11; East #6)

#43	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#53  Success:#76  Overall:#57
		Record: 5-7	Bowl: None
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA #49 | Lindy's #54 | Athlon #46 | Steele #36
		Record: 5-7	Bowl: None (Eligibility odds: 42%)

Vanderbilt and Kentucky never used to beat the Vols, and unless Tennessee can beat both of them this year, they probably won't go bowling.

Offense 5 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #27 (raw) #15 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #44 (adjusted)

It seems that the perception of a Butch Jones offense—or the perception of last year's Tennessee offense—is a bit out of whack with reality. Sources refer to Jones installing a "fast-paced, no-huddle" offense as if that's new for the Vols, but Tennessee's offense last year was even faster than Cincy's. Others say that Jones wants to run his "pass-happy" offense here. Cincy passed on 43% of plays last year, that's pass-happy? Then what should we call Tennessee's 54%? We don't know what he's going to do but we assume Jones will run about a 50/50 split, the average of last year's Cincinnati and Tennessee offenses, which means a reduction in pass plays; it amplifies an already shocking drop in our estimate for the passing game, and layers more yardage on the running game's natural increases. The offense as a whole suffers—not from any change in emphasis, but from basic loss of personnel.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #15 (raw) #9 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #2
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #92 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #2

Taylor Bray (3,612 yards, 34 TDs, 12 int) was a big part of Tennessee's top ten passing attack and with him gone the Vols look to Justin Worley who had 134 yards last year (0 TD, 2 int) and 604 (1:3) in 2011. The receiver situation is a bit bleak; the top four are gone including Justin Hunter (1,083 yards, 9 TDs), Cordarrelle Patterson (778 yards, 5 TDs) and tight end Mychal Rivera (562, 5). RB Marlin Lane (228) and three others had over 100 yards and are back. The bright spot? The offensive line, which was incredible last year in protecting Bray to the tune of just 8 sacks despite the voluminous attempts, and should be just as good this year. But if I were coach Jones I'd be giving reps to the ground game, too.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #62 (raw) #53 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #21 (adj.)

Rajion Neal (708 yards, 5 TDs) and Marlin Lane (658 yards) are both back, but the real driving force behind the improved running game will be the offensive line. Four starters are back: three seniors, Zach Fulton, JaWuan James, and James Stone, and one junior, Antonio Richardson. And senior Alex Bullard, a full-time starter in 2011, moves into the open spot. With all the necessary personnel available, Tennessee could be transformed into a great rushing team in just one season.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #102    Pass Defense  per-game: #113   Per-attempt: #84
Defense 8 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #103 (raw) #98 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #117	'12 picks: #51
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #77 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #116	'13 picks: #71

Unlike some defenses which are blindsided by their new coach's no-huddle offense and have a much worse year due to it, for Tennessee's D it should be old hat as the Vols ran 74 offensive plays per game last year. The change for this year is the move back to a 4-3. Three senior starters return to the offensive line, though Jacques Smith is out for a few games early (broken thumb) and they lose their sacks leader, backup Darrington Sentimore (4 sacks). At linebacker the three slots are filled with 2 returning starters including tackles leader A.J. Johnson (138 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss). The secondary has three starters back including Byron Moore (5 interceptions) while Brian Randolph—full-time  starter in 2011—is back from an injury suffered last year. We don't see any increase in big plays (in fact fewer picks) but both the rushing and passing defense should be better and the Vols' D will give up fewer points.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter/kicker Michael Palardy (9 of 12 field goals, 43.1 punting average) is back, and seems to have held off frat-house recruit Derrick Brodus (6 of 7 FG) as placekicker but '11 punter Matt Darr (39.0 ave) might still be in the mix.
• Return Game:  Cordarrelle Patterson had 2 touchdown returns, one on a kickoff (where he averaged 28 yards) and one on a punt despite returning only 4 all season. Devrin Young averaged 9.7 yards per punt return and should own both jobs as as Patterson departs.
• Turnovers projection:  Tennessee had bad luck on fumble recoveries last season (a plus for this year in relative terms) but faces an uncertain QB situation regarding interceptions thrown.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #30          2012 Recruiting Rank: #12
Butch Jones is the latest coach to try to live up to Phil Fulmer, who was the coach trying to live up to Johnny Majors, who was the coach trying to live up to Robert Neyland. Standards at Tennessee are very high and the current mediocre spell is just killing the fanbase. Jones suffers the obligatory transition-year recruiting slump and it puts the class near the bottom of the SEC this year. Even so, the class has a trio of consensus blue chips including WR Marquez North from Charlotte, NC, who should help with their receiver conundrum this year.

2012 Recap 
The year started off (almost) well enough at 3-1, because losing 37-20 to Florida proved they weren't "back" yet. And six other losses in the SEC showed that they were cursed; they lost a 51-44 shootout to Georgia, and fell to South Carolina 38-35, lost to Missouri 51-48 in four overtimes, and were clubbed 41-18 by one-time whipping boy Vanderbilt. A 37-17 win over Kentucky was far too little to save Derek Dooley's job.

Last year's prediction: We were expecting a solid 7-5 season from the Vols. So was everyone else, evidently, which made missing a bowl game look even worse for their coach.

2013 Outlook

Tennessee 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Austin Peay	100%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	Western Kentucky	75%	W
9/14	Sat	@	Oregon	3%	L
9/21	Sat	@	*Florida	17%	L
9/28	Sat	vs.	South Alabama	92%	W
10/5	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	13%	L
10/19	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	28%	L
10/26	Sat	@	*Alabama	2%	L
11/2	Sat	@	*Missouri	30%	L
11/9	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	64%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	46%	L
11/30	Sat	@	*Kentucky	54%	W
Straight up: 5-7  Cume: 5-7  Bowl eligible: 42%

What were once certainties are now must-wins. To make it to a bowl game, Tennessee has to beat both Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

The schedule starts off as easy as it can get and quickly becomes about as hard as possible. Austin Peay was 2-9 in the FCS last year. Western Kentucky is capable but that should be a win for UT at home. Then the Vols travel to Oregon to face the Ducks, after which they turn around and tackle Florida in the Swamp.

Assuming 2-2 at this point, South Alabama at home is another solid win, but none of the next four can be counted on for wins. Auburn at home has to be one, consequently, as well as Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Tennessee beat the latter teams for decades in a row but they've lost to both recently, Vanderbilt last year and Kentucky in 2011. Now they likely need wins over both to get back to a bowl game.

Both of our projections say no, and that Vandy is most likely to win, and even Kentucky is a threat this year. It would be a good way to reverse a lot of bad trends if the Vols could re-establish the pecking order in these series.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #51 Auburn Tigers

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Auburn Tigers  (SEC #12; West #6)

#51	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#73  Success:#98  Overall:#74
		Record: 3-9	Bowl: None
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #65 | Athlon #42 | Steele #42
		Record: 5-7	Bowl: None (Eligibility odds: 38%)

We think Auburn will be a lot better than last year, and Athlon and Phil Steele agree. A bowl game is within reach this season, even in the tough SEC. A couple of breaking news items affected this review; hopefully thing remain reasonably stable.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #115 (raw) #98 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #76 (adjusted)

Gus Malzahn will amp the offense with speed as the Tigers return to the spread.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #117 (raw) #113 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #111
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #113 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #102

Kiehl Frazier, Auburn's most productive quarterback with 753 yards (2 TDs, 8 int), is moving to safety—and that's probably a good thing for the offense, as his 8 interceptions and 53% completion rate held back the passing game. Jonathan Wallace (720 yards, 4 TD, 4 int) will vie with JUCO Nick Marshall (formerly a D-back at Georgia) for the starting slot [instant update: Marshall was named starter minutes ago]. The Tigers lose their only receiver of note from last year, Emory Blake (789 yards), with tight end C.J. Uzomah (136 yards) the top returnee. The offensive line couldn't protect the QBs last year (37 sacks) and that should improve but probably won't be close to solved. Despite moving to a spread Malzahn probably won't use the pass any more than Chizik did so we see mostly the same meager output.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #80 (raw) #70 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #45 (adj.)

Gus Malzahn's spread at Arkansas State—his sole head coaching gig—ran the ball 57% of the time, almost as much as Auburn's offense did last year. In 2011 as offensive coordinator here he ran the ball 65% of the time. So we see a continued emphasis on running the ball with Tre Mason (1,002 yards, 8 TDs) back and Onterio McCalebb (570, 6) gone. Two others had over 150 yards and one, QB Wallace, is back. The offensive line should be in better shape this year as four starters are back: juniors Reese Dismukes and Chad Slade, and sophomores Greg Robinson and Patrick Miller. The improved ground game should pace the offense's progress.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #99    Pass Defense  per-game: #17   Per-attempt: #40
Defense 7 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #68 (raw) #46 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #78	'12 picks: #124
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #53 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #73	'13 picks: #122

Auburn's rushing defense needs a boost and with three starters back on the defensive line they might get it. Though Corey Lemonier (5.5 sacks) is gone, Dee Ford (6 sacks) is back. At linebacker two starters are gone including #1 tackler Daren Bates (94 tackles). The team's #3 tackler (Jermaine Whitehead) is one of three starters who return to the secondary, but the #2, Demetruce McNeal, was recently (instant update #2!) kicked off the team for pot charges. The defense only had two interceptions all year and that has to go up—based on the decent pass break-up numbers we project a healthy 5 to 8 or so, nothing outrageous. Overall the defense should be better but the hurry-up offensive tempo offsets the gains, leaving the scoring D worse.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker Cody Parker (11 of 14 FGs) and punter Steven Clark (39.8 average) are back.
• Return Game:  Onterio McCalebb was the main kickoff returner and he had 1 touchdown to go with his 22.7 average. Tre Mason had a touchdown return in 2011, but since he's busy as the feature RB, WR Trovon Reed may get the call. Quan Bray (8.5 average) will return punts.
• Turnovers projection:  Interceptions are the team's friend this year. Not only do we think the quarterbacks will throw fewer this year, but almost anything the defense does is a bonus after getting only 2 last year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #12          2012 Recruiting Rank: #16
Gus Malzahn has been a sought-after commodity for quite a while as he worked offensive magic at Tulsa and Auburn as OC, then at Arkansas State as head coach. Now back at Auburn he didn't miss a beat in recruiting, maybe because he's familiar there, maybe because it's just Auburn. Either way the class is borderline top ten and therefore about average for the SEC these days. It ranked a bit higher before QB/WR Jason Smith of Mobile left for prep school. Defensive lineman Montravious Adams from Vienna, GA is one of the class's top prizes.

2012 Recap 
Gene Chizik needed to have a good season to keep his job and he didn't get it. Though Auburn played well in Atlanta against Clemson, losing 26-19, they were beaten 28-10 by Mississippi State and needed overtime to beat upstart Louisiana-Monroe 31-28. Then the heart of the SEC schedule hit and the losses mounted, interrupted only by a lopsided late non-conference game (New Mexico State 42-7) and the traditional FCS win (Alabama A&M 51-7). In between those two they were shut out by Georgia 38-0 and after lost to Alabama 49-0. Chizik was fired soon thereafter.

Last year's prediction: We thought Auburn would only drop from 8-5 to 6-6 or so, though the game-by-game slate was a warning at 4-8. There, we picked wins over ULM, Ole Miss, New Mexico State, and Alabama A&M; Mississippi beat Auburn 41-20 in the only incorrect outcome.

2013 Outlook

Auburn 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Washington State	58%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	75%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	43%	W
9/21	Sat	@	*LSU	12%	L
10/5	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	21%	L
10/12	Sat	vs.	Western Carolina	99%	W
10/19	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	3%	L
10/26	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	88%	W
11/2	Sat	@	*Arkansas	63%	W
11/9	Sat	@	*Tennessee	36%	L
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	11%	L
11/30	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	3%	L
Straight up: 5-7  Cume: 5-7  Bowl eligible: 38%

We're now forecasting a 5-7 record for the Tigers, but this time the game-by-game record doesn't contradict it. There are five games where Auburn should be favored and one tossup, so the top bar chart shows 6-6 a next-most-likely outcome, and the odds of bowl eligibility are a decent 4 in 10.

Washington State and Arkansas State at home should be wins—interesting that Malzahn faces his old team so quickly—and then Mississippi State, also at home, is a close call. Beyond that, it's much the same situation as last year with an FCS break (Western Carolina) and an outmatched smaller-conference foe (Florida Atlantic) providing fodder for the hope of bowl eligibility.

Other key games are Arkansas and Tennessee, both on the road. Depending on how these programs bounced back this year both could be wins or losses. We give Auburn the win over the Razorbacks but not the Volunteers.

It looks like the Tigers can reach 6-6, but they might fall just short. Let's see how much magic Malzahn has in him.

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Pre-season Rankings: #45 Boise State Broncos

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Boise State Broncos  (Mountain West #3; Mountain #2)

#45	2012 Results	AP #18 USA #14	Strength:#34  Success:#19  Overall:#35
		Record: 11-2	Bowl: Beat Washington 28-26 (Las Vegas)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #19 | USA #19 | Lindy's #17 | Athlon #11 | Steele #40
		Record: 8-4	Bowl: Armed Forces (Eligibility odds: 96%)

I'm not sure how Lindy's and Athlon rank their teams—is it how good they are supposed to be, or how well they think the team will do against their schedule? It seems to vary team by team. With Boise State the latter is the only way we would put them in the top 25.

Offense 4 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #55 (raw) #62 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #52 (adjusted)

The offense gets hit again, but not nearly as hard as last year, and we see it getting better as the passing game improves.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #71 (raw) #58 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #8
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #40 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #11

Joe Southwick (2,730 yards, 19 TDs, 7 int) did a reasonably good job at the impossible—replacing Kellen Moore as Boise State's quarterback. He'll have top target Matt Miller (769 yards, 5 TDs) back along with 5 of 8 others who had 100+ yards. The offensive line's protection (10 sacks) may slip a bit but should still be excellent. As a senior, Southwick should take another step toward having a Moore-like year.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #56 (raw) #66 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #89 (adj.)

Boise loses D.J. Harper (1,137 yards, 15 TDs) but the cupboard isn't bare. Jay Ajayi had 548 yards as a freshman, and two others had 100+ including QB Southwick. The offensive line returns two full-time starters in seniors Matt Paradis and Charles Leno, while Spencer Gerke started half-time, so it could be a bit weaker. Ajayi averaged 6.7 yards per carry so he could have a great year but none of the backups were close to that so overall production could fall.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #51    Pass Defense  per-game: #7   Per-attempt: #24
Defense 4 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #9 (raw) #21 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #33	'12 picks: #15
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #40 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #41	'13 picks: #54

Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski did a great job keeping the defense in the top 25 after losing 9 starters from 2011. This year the cupboard is mostly bare again but better than last year's situation. The defensive line of Boise's 4-2-5 returns two starters including Demarcus Lawrence (9.5 sacks), and backup Tyler Horn had 5 sacks. Both starting linebackers are gone, however, including #1 tackler J.C. Percy (118 tackles). The secondary loses three starters including Jamar Taylor (9 pass breakups, 4 int) but two are back including Jeremy Ioane. Again, not ideal, but they'll be all right. We drop the Bronco D down to #40 or so—which is about where we thought they'd drop last year. Let's see if they can stay in the top 25 again, and someone will give Kwiatkowski a head coaching job.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Michael Frisina (15 of 20 FG) is gone, and sophomore Tyler Rausa or junior Dan Goodale will replace him. Punter Trevor Harman (41.2 average) is back.
• Return Game:  WR Shane Williams-Rhodes averaged 24.9 yards per kickoff return as a freshman, and he'll probably take over as main punt returner too as Chris Potter (11.8 average) departs.
• Turnovers projection:  Though Boise's D returns about half of last year's 18 interceptions, they lose 2/3 of their pass breakups and their picks totals could plummet.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #48          2012 Recruiting Rank: #58
Recruiting improves for the 4th straight year, but mainly that's a function of the team's needs. Four seasons ago Chris Peterson had almost everyone back and no room for recruits, and therefore a meager class that ranked near the bottom of the nation. Each year since then more spots have opened up and they are filling them with roughly the same caliber of above-average-but-not-blue-chip players, with this year's class ranking #1 in the Mountain West. Tutulupeatau "Deuce" Mataele is a projected starter on the defensive line but he might be sidetracked by academic issues.

2012 Recap
Everyone knew Boise State was not going to be as strong as the 2010 and 2011 models, but they had a decent chance of going undefeated due to their schedule. Their biggest roadblock was Michigan State, at the time touted by some as a national title contender. Based on that, the 17-13 loss would have been a great omen, but as it turns out the Spartans were on their way to a 6-6 finish. In the weeks that followed we saw that the offense was even weaker than expected, while the defense was shockingly strong for a unit that had lost 9 starters. The 7-6 win over BYU drove this point home in game 3. They also held Fresno State to 10 points in that 20-10 win, while failing to score 20 against San Diego State in a 21-19 loss. Three games under 20 points hadn't happened to the Broncos since 1999.

Last year's prediction: We dropped the Broncos from #8 in Strength to a projected #36 ranking, and they ended up #32 by the end of the season. Our cumulative projection was a conservative 9-3, but game-by-game a 12-0 season looked possible. We gave game #1 to Michigan State, and we were right. The other games went exactly to the map except for the SDSU upset loss.

2013 Outlook

Boise State 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	@	Washington	17%	L
9/7	Sat	vs.	TN-Martin	94%	W
9/13	Fri	vs.	*Air Force	95%	W
9/20	Fri	@	*Fresno State	43%	L
9/28	Sat	vs.	Southern Miss	94%	W
10/12	Sat	@	*Utah State	33%	L
10/19	Sat	vs.	*Nevada	90%	W
10/25	Fri	@	BYU	28%	L
11/2	Sat	@	*Colorado State	61%	W
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Wyoming	87%	W
11/23	Sat	@	*San Diego State	43%	L
11/30	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico	94%	W
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 96%

Last year the cumulative estimate projected a 9-3 season for the Broncos, so this year's 8-4 may again look like it's just being conservative. But last year's game-by-game showed 11 wins which was too generous; this year the Broncos are favored in just a slim majority of contests.

The first loss should come via last year's bowl victim. Washington may be one of the most improved teams in the country and they'll be hard to beat in Seattle, but they could be missing their top two receivers. Later the Broncos travel to Fresno State for what should be a hard-fought loss, and road games at Utah State, BYU, and San Diego State look similar.

Between those possible losses are almost certain wins: Tennesse-Martin and Air Force, Southern Miss, Nevada, Wyoming, and New Mexico. With those 6 pretty much given, Boise State has little chance of missing a bowl game. Add Colorado State which should be a tougher win and the Broncos have a 7-5 record.

The cumulative estimate gives 8 wins because many of the "losses" are close games, especially Fresno and SDSU. Another double-digit win season is not too far off, especially if you count the post-season (MWC championship and bowl game). We rank Boise #2 in their division so we don't project them in the title game. If they are the #3 Mountain West team they'd go to the Armed Forces Bowl against a C-USA opponent.

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Pre-season Rankings: #47 Iowa State Cyclones

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Iowa State Cyclones  (Big Twelve #7)

#47	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#39  Success:#53  Overall:#39
		Record: 6-7	Bowl: Lost to Tulsa 31-17 (Liberty)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #44 | Athlon #57 | Steele #69
		Record: 5-7	Bowl: None (Eligibility odds: 35%)

Recently the Cyclones have been just at the cusp of bowl eligibility every year and usually manage to make it. Can they make it a third straight year?

Offense 5 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #85 (raw) #69 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #71 (adjusted)

Sam Richardson was probably the best of the team's three QBs last year mainly because he didn't gift the ball to the other team. As long as he does even a reasonable job of that this year the offense should avoid faltering despite losing six starters.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #80 (raw) #74 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #29
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #104 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #34

Iowa State had a complicated quarterback situation as Steele Jantz (1,603 yards, 13 TDs, 12 int), Jared Barnett (624 yards, 6:4) and Sam Richardson (541, 8:1) all played extensively. Only Richardson is back and should assume the starting role. Last year's top three receivers are gone (#1 was Josh Lenz with 459 yards and 6 TDs) leaving #4, senior tight end Ernst Brun (330 yards, 6 TDs) the leading returnee with four others who topped 100 yards. Despite the weakness at receiver and projected lower production Richardson should easily top any of the QBs numbers last year but his main contribution might be his low interception rate.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #76 (raw) #61 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #58 (adj.)

James White (505 yards) and Shontrelle Johnson (504) combined to make a 1,000 yard rusher and both are back. Of the QBs, Richardson was the best with 233 yards (5.7 average) though the others both topped 100 yards. The offensive line loses a 4-year starter and a 3-year starter, with Kyle Lichtenberg, Ethan Tuftee, and Tom Farniok back. We see modest gains.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #49    Pass Defense  per-game: #95   Per-attempt: #53
Defense 4 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #41 (raw) #19 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #81	'12 picks: #21
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #33 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #110	'13 picks: #32

The ISU defense was fantastic at stopping scoring; their #41 raw scoring numbers belie their quality as they faced some of the highest-scoring teams week in and week out. In terms of yardage they were decent-to-mediocre against both the run and pass as they faced heavy passing teams mainly. The rushing defense may suffer this year. Three starters are gone from the defensive line with Willie Scott holding down the fort; he is one of only 4 players back who had a sack last year (1 each). At linebacker #1 tackler A.J. Klein (117) is gone with Jake Knott. The secondary loses two starters including Jeremy Reeves (12 pass breakups). NB Deon Broomfield (10 pass breakups) moves into a starting slot at safety so they aren't too bad off there but overall the D looks weaker than last year's top 25 scoring defense.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Seniors Edwin Arceo (12 of 18 field goals) and Kirby Van Der Kamp (41.0 punting average) are both back.
• Return Game:  Aaron Horne was last year's best punt returner (12.7 average) while Jarvis West returned the most kickoffs (21.1 average). He's listed as the main guy for both this season.
• Turnovers projection:  If QB Richardson keeps his same interception ratio (1 in 79 throws) he'll have about 6 for the year compared to the team's 17 last season. Even 12 would be a big improvement. The defense probably won't match last year's 14, but better luck on fumble recoveries should put the Cyclones in the plus column here.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #60          2012 Recruiting Rank: #71
Paul Rhodes has one of the toughest jobs in college football currently. Iowa State doesn't have the cachet of the other programs in the conference, and with the Big Twelve very strong right now it's tough for a smaller program to have success. He's done pretty well so far, delivering bowl seasons 3 out of 4 years, and at that rate they'll keep him here forever. Recruiting was decent this year but still basically ranks last in the conference. Jake Campos, an offensive lineman from West Des Moines, is the class' consensus blue chip.

2012 Recap
Underdogs going in, Iowa State played a great game in beating Tulsa 38-23 in the opener. In wins over TCU (37-23), Baylor (35-21), and Kansas (51-23) they were led by a different quarterback in each. All of their losses were to bowl teams, and many were close. The 27-21 loss to Kansas State was a particularly admirable effort. The defense played well in the win at Iowa (9-6) and held Baylor (21 points) Oklahoma (35), and Oklahoma State (31) well below their average. They were slight favorites in the rematch in the Liberty Bowl but fell to Tulsa 31-17.

Last year's prediction: We ranked the 'Clones correctly (according to us) at #39 since that's where they finished in our Strength power rating. Our main projection was for a 5-7 year, with a 47% chance of making 6-6. In our game-by-game picks we had ISU 6-6 with every game right except the Texas Tech loss and TCU win switched around. Not too bad overall.

2013 Outlook

Iowa State 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Northern Iowa	76%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Iowa	72%	W
9/21	Sat	@	Tulsa	47%	L
10/5	Sat	vs.	*Texas	12%	L
10/12	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	42%	L
10/19	Sat	@	*Baylor	24%	L
10/26	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	15%	L
11/2	Sat	@	*Kansas State	24%	L
11/9	Sat	vs.	*TCU	32%	L
11/16	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	17%	L
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	82%	W
11/30	Sat	@	*West Virginia	53%	W
Straight up: 4-8  Cume: 5-7  Bowl eligible: 35%

Iowa State starts off with games against in-state rivals and could grind out two wins. Northern Iowa was possibly the best team ever to finish with a losing record in the FCS, and the Cyclones beat Iowa 9-6 in Iowa City last year. After that they face Tulsa yet again, and after winning at home and losing on a neutral field we make them a very slight underdog playing on the road.

Then come seven unforgiving games in a row. The best bet for a win in any of these is probably at Texas Tech, but the 'Clones tend to get an upset here or there. They'll need to if they want to go bowling again.

At the end Kansas should be a win and West Virginia is a strong possibility even in Morgantown. That would put them 4-8, and the cumulative estimate is 5-7 with about a 1 in 3 chance to return to the post-season. Paul Rhodes has had three 6-6 regular seasons and one 5-7; this looks more like a 5-7, but so have some of the others and he's generally found a way to get the sixth.

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2013 Pre-Season Rankings: #48 Fresno State Bulldogs

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Fresno State Bulldogs  (Mountain West #4; West #2)

#48	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#33  Success:#51  Overall:#37
		Record: 9-4	Bowl: Lost to SMU 45-10 (Hawaii)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #32 | USA #31 | Lindy's #33 | Athlon #22 | Steele #41
		Record: 9-3	Bowl: New Mexico (Eligibility odds: 99%)

Fresno State is a popular pick to make some noise this year, and while we downgrade the team somewhat, they have a good shot at 10 wins in the regular season.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #15 (raw) #25 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #29 (adjusted)

A mixed bag as QB Derek Carr is back while RB Robbie Rouse departs.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #12 (raw) #11 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #94
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #7 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #98

Derek Carr (4,104 yards, 37 TDs, 7 int) is back for his senior year looking to lead a top-ten passing attack with the Bulldogs. With top receivers Davante Adams (1,312 yards, 14 TDs as a freshman) and Isaiah Burse (851 yards, 6 TDs) back along with three of five others who had 300+ yards the receiving corps is excellent. More of the same is pretty good in this case.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #71 (raw) #84 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #110 (adj.)

The Bulldogs lose their other star player, Robbie Rouse (1,490 yards, 12 TDs) who accounted for almost all of the running game. Transfer Josh Quezada had 505 yards at BYU in 2010 but that's a long way from 1,500. The offensive line loses two starters but Austin Wentworth and Cody Wichmann are back, and Lars Bramer and Alex Fifita shared another slot last year. We see a drop due to Rouse's absence.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #42    Pass Defense  per-game: #20   Per-attempt: #22
Defense 7 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #38 (raw) #49 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #18	'12 picks: #2
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #71 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #20	'13 picks: #4

The defense might be better up front as all three starters are back on the defensive line including sacks leader Andy Jennings (5.5 sacks). But the problems start at linebacker where half the key players are lost including Tristan Okpalaugo (7.5 tackles for loss). The secondary was exceptional last year and Derron Smith (6 interceptions) and L.J. Jones (13 pass breakups) are back, but the loss of Philip Thomas (#1 tackler w/84, 8 tackles for loss, 8 interceptions) hurts, and recently Sean Alston (5 interceptions) was declared out for the year to injury. Last year's interception total (22) will be almost impossible to match even as we still rank them high there, and the defense as a whole could be weaker as with Alston out they lose 4 of their top 5 tacklers.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both placekicker Quentin Breshears (12 of 15 FG) and punter Andrew Shapiro (42.0 average) are gone; freshman Colin McGuire and soph Garrett Swanson will replace them.
• Return Game:  Senior WR Isaiah Burse (22.4 on kickoffs, 10.2 on punts) will be the main return man again next year. Rashad Evans had a touchdown takeback last year as main punt returner (9.2 average) but he departs.
• Turnovers projection:  Mainly we doubt the Bulldog D can replicate its amazing feat with interceptions next season; that's a lot of lost big plays if they can't.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #65          2012 Recruiting Rank: #123
Tim DeRuyter's two recruiting classes are like night and day, and are indicative of the transition-year curse that hit Fresno State particularly hard. For one, they had fired a long-time coach (Pat Hill) who still had a lot of support; two, they were coming off an 4-9 year. Transition years are normally bad but that was like a perfect storm and further, the recruiting class was small and had some attrition. This year's class is much larger and has far more above-average recruits, ranking near the top of the Mountain West.

2012 Recap
It was a good season for first-year coach Tim DeRuyter, but how much credit should he get? Coming off a 4-9 season all the pieces for a turnaround were in place. During the regular season they lost only to three 10+ win teams: Oregon (42-25), Tulsa (27-26), and Boise State (20-10), all on the road. While their victories weren't that impressive they did beat bowl teams San Diego State 52-40, Nevada 52-36, and Air Force 48-15. The 45-10 blowout in the Hawaii Bowl is more due to SMU I think since the Mustangs did that before to Nevada and it was just as surprising then.

Last year's prediction: We didn't have Fresno State nearly as strong as they ended up being, ranking them #76, but we saw the turnaround coming regardless of coach. Our projection was muted at 7-5, but game-by-game we picked them to be 8-4, with losses to Oregon, Tulsa, and Boise. We also had them losing to Nevada so maybe that's the one game where DeRuyter made the difference?

2013 Outlook

Fresno State 2013 schedule & forecast
8/29	Thu	vs.	Rutgers	75%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	Cal Poly	80%	W
9/14	Sat	@	Colorado	74%	W
9/20	Fri	vs.	*Boise State	57%	W
9/28	Sat	@	*Hawaii	84%	W
10/5	Sat	@	Idaho	98%	W
10/19	Sat	vs.	*UNLV	87%	W
10/26	Sat	@	*San Diego State	42%	L
11/2	Sat	vs.	*Nevada	90%	W
11/9	Sat	@	*Wyoming	74%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico	93%	W
11/29	Fri	@	*San Jose State	35%	L
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 9-3  Undefeated: 2%

The Bulldogs are set for another excellent year—maybe even their first 10-win season since 2001.

The first three games aren't Fresno State's easiest, and though they should come out of it 3-0 there's a chance to get upset in any of the three. Rutgers is tough, Cal Poly was 9-3 in the FCS last year, and Colorado on the road isn't a given. They host Boise State on a Friday night and that will have MWC title implications; we have them a narrow winner at home.

The next three games—Hawaii, Idaho, and UNLV—are the easiest, and after those they should be 6-1 at the worst. We pick them to win three of the last five, with only road games at SDSU and SJSU spoiling their perfect record for a 10-2 finish. Those games don't look like blowouts, either, and if Fresno State is lucky they can go 12-0; we give that about a 2% chance.

The cumulative estimate settles on a 9-3 record being the most likely, with virtual certainty of bowl eligibility. We rank them #4 in the Mountain West, which would send them to the New Mexico Bowl vs. the Pac-12 #7 team, perhaps UCLA.

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