SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
| Washington Huskies (Pac-12 #4; North #3) |
 #12 |
2012 Results |
AP NR USA NR | Strength:#50 Success:#27 Overall:#48 |
| Record: 7-6 | Bowl: Lost to Boise State 28-26 (Las Vegas) |
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| 2013 Outlook |
Picks: AP #34 | USA #43 | Lindy's #30 | Athlon #37 | Steele #30 |
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| Record: 8-4 | Bowl: Holiday (Eligibility odds: 99%) |
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Each year it seems we have one "surprise" team, an outlier on the upside compared to the other forecasters. Last year it was Vanderbilt, and that turned out to be a great pick. The year before it was Cal, which didn't.
| Offense 9 ret. starters |
2012 Scoring Offense: #89 (raw) #72 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #21 (adjusted) |
Can Washington go from having a very mediocre offense to having a top 25 rushing and passing game? With their quarterback, top running back, and all significant receivers back, and with an offensive line overcrowded with returning starters? Yes, they can.
| Passing Game |
2012 Passing Rank: #81 (raw) #77 (adjusted) | 2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #110 |
| 2013 Projected Passing Rank: #23 (adjusted) |
2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #88 |
Keith Price (2,726 yards, 19 TDs, 13 int) had a "junior slump" last year, with all his numbers declining (except interceptions, up by 2). As a senior his stats should look more like they did in 2011 and with all his receivers back it should be easy. The top six are back led by Kasen Williams (878 yards, 6 TDs) and superstar tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins (850 yards, 7 TDs). Both those two had drunk driving infractions in the off-season and either or both might miss the first game (Boise State), or not. The offensive line should be a lot stronger an improve significantly on last year's 38 sacks. We see a huge bounce-back for Price and co. in the passing offense.
| Rushing | 2012 Rushing Rank: #86 (raw) #67 (adjusted) | 2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #25 (adj.) |
Bishop Sankey (1,439 yards, 16 TDs) is back and he was most of the ground game last year. Kendyl Taylor added 209 and Erich Wilson 145. Wilson transferred to San Jose State and no one else had 100 yards last year. They do get Jesse Callier back from medical redshirt; his best year was 2010 (433 yards). The offensive line should help the group exceed last year's totals as only one starter is gone. Micah Hatchie, Dexter Charles, and Ben Riva return along with half-time starters Mike Criste and James Atoe, and they get 2011 starters Erik Kohler and Colin Tanigawa back from injury. That is a stacked line, and should help the ground game bust into the top 25.
| 2012 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #57 Pass Defense per-game: #12 Per-attempt: #27 | ||
| Defense 8 ret. starters |
'12 Scoring Defense: #42 (raw) #25 (adjusted) | '12 sacks: #50 | '12 picks: #19 |
| '13 Projected Scoring Defense: #17 (adjusted) |
'13 sacks: #23 | '13 picks: #19 | |
Washington's defense wasn't bad once you correct for the fact that they are in the high-scoring Pac-12. The team's pass rush should be much stronger; the team loses only a few players who recorded a sack and leaders Andrew Hudson (6.5 sacks) and Josh Shirley (6.5) return to the defensive line. All of the linebackers return including #1 tackler John Timu, and two starters return in the secondary including #2 tackler Sean Parker. The defense also features a number of full- or part-time starters from 2010 and 2011 such as Hau'oli Jamora on the d-line who is back from injury. We expect a solid improvement in Washington's defense.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Punter/placekicker Travis Coons (9 of 14 FG, 39.8 punting average) is back as a senior, but he'll face competition from Korey Durkee (36.9 average) at punter.
- Return Game: Jaydon Mickens (21.5 average) handled the most kickoffs last year and probably will again, while Cody Bruns (8.2 average) took the most punts. Bruns departs and Kasen Williams—who returned punts in 2011 (9.6 average) could take over.
- Turnovers projection: Not much difference is seen overall.
Coaching/Recruiting 2013 Recruiting Rank: #16 2012 Recruiting Rank: #20
Steve Sarkisian brings another top 25 class to Seattle, and it might rank #2 in the Pac-12 (it's well behind #1 UCLA and slightly ahead of six other teams.
2012 Recap
Washington played some really good games, and some really crap games.
Early on, they beat San Diego State but were destroyed by LSU 41-3. Then they the upset Stanford 17-13, one of the Cardinals' only two losses. The Huskies lost three in a row in the mid-season, putting them at 3-4 and
their bowl hopes in jeopardy, but only the 52-17 beatdown by Arizona was
an embarrassment; they did about as well as expected at Oregon and
against USC. Their 4-game winning streak was a thing of beauty,
particularly on defense, as they added a win over 9-3 Oregon State.
Which made it all the more surprising that they lost their final to
Washington State in overtime. They fought with Boise State but lost 28-26 in the Las Vegas Bowl to finish 7-6.
Last year's prediction: We ranked Washington #46—pretty good as they finished #50 in our Strength rating—but were torn on whether they'd be bowl-eligible. We concluded probably not, giving them a 49% chance to reach 6 wins.
2013 Outlook
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Washington 2013 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/31 | Sat | vs. | Boise State | 84% | W | |||
| 9/14 | Sat | @ | Illinois | 97% | W | |||
| 9/21 | Sat | vs. | Idaho State | 100% | W | |||
| 9/28 | Sat | vs. | *Arizona | 77% | W | |||
| 10/5 | Sat | @ | *Stanford | 47% | L | |||
| 10/12 | Sat | vs. | *Oregon | 29% | L | |||
| 10/19 | Sat | @ | *Arizona State | 34% | L | |||
| 10/26 | Sat | vs. | *California | 96% | W | |||
| 11/9 | Sat | vs. | *Colorado | 98% | W | |||
| 11/15 | Fri | @ | *UCLA | 51% | W | |||
| 11/23 | Sat | @ | *Oregon State | 37% | L | |||
| 11/29 | Fri | vs. | *Washington State | 89% | W | |||
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Straight up: 8-4 Cume: 8-4 Bowl eligible: 99%
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Boise State is being touted as a huge game, and with the Broncos in the AP top 25 it may be, but we consider Washington a heavy favorite to get revenge at home for last year's bowl loss, with or without their two top receivers. The Huskies should get three more wins before travelling to Stanford, a game we consider a tossup.
The next two games—Oregon at home, ASU on the road—are probable losses for the Huskies. But then the schedule gets very friendly: they play Cal at home, have a week off, and Colorado at home before taking on UCLA in Los Angeles. Since we also consider that game a tossup the scheduling beforehand—two "easy" teams and a week off—might really tip the game Washington's way.
But Oregon State on the road is another probable loss, adding up to a 7-5, 8-4, or 9-3 season depending on how you call the tossups, and an 8-4 cumulative estimate (leaning toward 9-3). So even though we project a monstrous improvement for the Huskies and almost rank them in the top ten, it might not look like that kind of season. 4-loss teams usually don't end up near the top ten; ironically, in order to finish where we rank them pre-season they'll have to overachieve a bit, perhaps by winning both close games and winning their bowl game.
A bowl game win can gain a team a lot of respect, and the #4 Pac-12 team goes to the Holiday Bowl vs. the Big Twelve's #5 or 6 team, Kansas State or Baylor. So they might get a rematch of their 2011 bowl game in addition to the opening-game rematch of last year's bowl.
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