2013 Pre-season Rankings: #20 USC Trojans

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

USC Trojans  (Pac-12 #6; South #2)

#20	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#20  Success:#49  Overall:#22
		Record: 7-6	Bowl: Lost to Georgia Tech 21-7 (Sun)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #24 | USA #24 | Lindy's #25 | Athlon #26 | Steele #7
		Record: 9-4	Bowl: Las Vegas (Eligibility odds: 96%)

USC certainly wasn't the best team in the country last year but they weren't as bad as their record would lead one to believe; they lost close games and fell apart as a team near the end. This season they should be just as good but have better results.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #40 (raw) #24 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #31 (adjusted)

Despite the loss of Matt Barkley the offense shouldn't slip much.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #32 (raw) #25 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #11
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #32 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #10

Poor Matt Barkley (3,273 yards, 36 TDs, 15 int). His plight reflected USC's dismal season, as he could have left early and been a top pick in the draft; instead, he came back to a disastrous year in which he was injured (literally adding injury to insult). The competition for the starting spot is still going on late into August and features backup sophomores Max Wittek (388 yards, 3 TDs, 5 int) and Cody Kessler (2 of 2 for 9 yards last year). Wittek completed just 52% in two starts when Barkley was out. The Lee/Woods receiver tandem is no more as Robert Woods (846 yards, 11 TDs) is gone, but Marqise Lee (1,721 yards, 14 TDs) had become more important anyway. Five others had 100+ yards and four are back, though a lot of younger WRs were injured over the summer. As long as Lee is healthy the passing game should be sound, and with a solid line (17 sacks last year) to protect him the new starter should do well; he just won't be Heisman caliber as fans are used to.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #74 (raw) #64 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #65 (adj.)

Silas Redd (905 yards, 9 TDs) jumped off what he thought was a sinking ship at Penn State (little did he know) and led the Trojans in rushing. Curtis McNeal was #2 with 701 yards. McNeal is gone but with a stronger offensive line they should roughly make up for his absence. Seniors John Martinez and Kevin Graf return to the O-line with junior Marcus Martin, while Aundrey Walker and Max Tuerk started roughly half-time each.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #29    Pass Defense  per-game: #58   Per-attempt: #36
Defense 7 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #43 (raw) #23 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #5	'12 picks: #6
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #16 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #3	'13 picks: #5

USC's defense was much-maligned last year but it was really a top 25 outfit across the board. Again, not national-title caliber but very sound, and agressive in making big plays. The stat everyone points to is rushing defense where they ranked #71 in raw figures, but they played a slew of great rushing teams including Oregon and Georgia Tech; when adjusted for schedule it was 29th in the country. But because they face strong running opponents in the Pac-12 they've moved to a 5-man line (5-2-4) and we'd assume the rushing defense will improve, and even the fierce pass rush (45 sacks) will get better. They lose Wes Horton (5.5 sacks) but George Uko (5 sacks) and Leonard Williams (8 sacks) are back and Morgan Breslin (13 sacks) joins the d-line as a LB/DE. The other LB/DE is Devon Kennard, a starter who returns from medical redshirt last year. Both linebackers are returning starters with Hayes Pullard the #2 tackler on the team last year (107). The secondary loses three starters including T.J. McDonald (#1 tackler with 112) but they get Dion Bailey (4 int) from the linebacker corps. In terms of the entire defense, we expect it to be somewhat better, though injuries can wreak havoc with USC more than most teams due to current scholarship limitations.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Andre Heidari (10 of 16 FG) is back but punter Kyle Negrete (42.7 average) is gone; sophomore Kris Albarado is the replacement.
• Return Game:  Marqise Lee averaged 28.5 yards per kickoff return with one touchdown, while fellow WR Robert Woods took the most punts but with less luck (3.6 per return). CB Anthony Brown may take over as Woods departs.
• Turnovers projection:  We don't expect the defense to match last year's 19 interceptions; their ranking remains high since expectations for most of the teams at the top of that list get downgraded.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #19          2012 Recruiting Rank: #13
Due to scholarship limitations and an off-year, Lane Kiffin's 4th class at USC is only about the 3rd-best in the Pac-12. Which is still remarkable for such a small class. Out of 12 commits, the Trojans landed four of the very best recruits available at any position: d-back Su'a Cravens from Murietta, CA; quarterback Max Browne from Washington state; defensive lineman Kenn Bigelow from Maryland; and running back Ty Isaac from Illinois. The remaining 8 are all consensus blue-chip players, too. They didn't get quantity but they got the best quality per-recruit of any team in the nation, easily.

2012 Recap
The season began, as usual, with lofty expectations and ended with an in-team scuffle after their bowl game loss. USC's first seven games were about as consistent of performances as you could ever expect from a team. Even the Stanford loss, as shocking as it was at the time, was to an 12-2 team and the Pac-12 champion. But after starting out 6-1 they dropped a notch and it was enough to send their season into a tailspin. The Arizona loss is the game that coach Lane Kiffin credits with ruining the team's season, and he was probably right. USC led by 15 and let the game slip away, and with it their hopes of a national title. They did about as well as they could have against Oregon, losing 52-51, then trounced Arizona State 38-17. UCLA beat them 38-28 and then without Barkley they fell to Notre Dame 22-13. Relegated to the Sun Bowl, a prospect the team openly mocked on social media, the Trojans were beat 21-7 by Georgia Tech and the infighting started. In retrospect what you had were a lot of close losses to good teams, which is only a devastating thing if you were expected to be the best team in the nation.

Last year's prediction: After Silas Redd transferred from Penn State, USC moved into the #1 spot in our pre-season rankings. The AP and Athlon concurred, while Lindy's had them #2 and Phil Steele and the coaches put them #3. Groupthink? To some extent, but if you look at how well they did in 2011 and how many players they had back, it's hard not to think the top 3 was where they belonged.

2013 Outlook

USC 2013 schedule & forecast
8/29	Thu	@	Hawaii	96%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	86%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Boston College	86%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Utah State	76%	W
9/28	Sat	@	*Arizona State	27%	L
10/10	Thu	vs.	*Arizona	70%	W
10/19	Sat	@	Notre Dame	43%	L
10/26	Sat	vs.	*Utah	88%	W
11/1	Fri	@	*Oregon State	30%	L
11/9	Sat	@	*California	87%	W
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	57%	W
11/23	Sat	@	*Colorado	92%	W
11/30	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	61%	W
Straight up: 10-3  Cume: 9-4  Bowl eligible: 96%

Starting in Hawaii and ending up at home against Utah State, the Trojans' first four games get progressively harder but should all be wins. They travel to Arizona State and the Sun Devils will probably be a better team this year. USC will want revenge on Arizona and should get it, but another tough road game follows vs. Notre Dame and we see the Trojans 5-2 at the rough mid-point of their 13-game schedule.

Another home win (Utah) precedes another probable road loss as Oregon State look strong to us this season. Cal does not, and USC gets Stanford at home and could win that game for the first time since 2008. Colorado should be a breather before the UCLA game, another close win perhaps. In all that's 10-3 game-by-game, but giving USC a couple of close ones at the end. The cumulative projection says 9-4 is more likely with the possibility of upsets taken into account.

If they end up the #6 Pac-12 team the Trojans (assuming two Pac-12 teams make the BCS) would go to the Las Vegas Bowl to face the top Mountain West team, which could be Utah State. If so things could be shuffled on the Pac-12 side to avoid the rematch, or it could be another MWC team (Boise State would be an intriguing game). But either way it might be another lesser bowl game for USC. With lower expectations going in, it won't seem so horrible this time if it turns out that way.

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