SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
| UCLA Bruins (Pac-12 #7; South #3) |
 #23 |
2012 Results |
AP #31 USA #27 | Strength:#24 Success:#29 Overall:#27 |
| Record: 9-5 | Bowl: Lost to Baylor 49-26 (Holiday) |
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| 2013 Outlook |
Picks: AP #21 | USA #21 | Lindy's #23 | Athlon #27 | Steele #29 |
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| Record: 8-4 | Bowl: Fight Hunger (Eligibility odds: 93%) |
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The Bruin defense might struggle a bit but the offense should be just as good, and excellent recruiting should keep the Bruins in the top 25.
| Offense 6 ret. starters |
2012 Scoring Offense: #29 (raw) #21 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #19 (adjusted) |
Without Johnathan Franklin, Brett Hundley becomes even more important to the offense.
| Passing Game |
2012 Passing Rank: #34 (raw) #35 (adjusted) | 2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #118 |
| 2013 Projected Passing Rank: #21 (adjusted) |
2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #108 |
Brett Hundley (3,740 yards, 29 TDs, 11 int) lived up to the hype as a freshman last year, and he's obviously become critical to the offense. The offensive line allowed 52 sacks last year; what happens if Hundley is injured? His backups from last year are one and one candidate tranferred, leaving three other redshirt freshman in line. Leading receiver Shaquille Evans (877 yards) is back but the next three receivers including Joseph Fauria (637 yards, 12 TDs) are gone, #5 Steve Manfro (287) is moving to running back and #6 Damiam Thigpen is rehabbing an ACL tear. That still leaves five others who had 100+ yards however. The O-line will reduce the sacks a lot this year as four starters return. Hundley should be even better as a sophomore and the passing game the driver of the offense.
| Rushing | 2012 Rushing Rank: #37 (raw) #34 (adjusted) | 2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #46 (adj.) |
Johnathan Franklin (1,734 yards, 13 touchdowns) busted out of the gate last year with two straight 200 yard performances (one against Nebraska) and became the offense's engine. Three other players had over 200 yards: QB Hundley (355), Damian Thigpen (262, out the early part of the season), and Jordan James (214) who is the presumed starter—another candidate is redshirt freshman Paul Perkins. Franklin's numbers are going to be hard to match but a stronger offensive line will help. Three starters were freshmen last year—Jake Brendel, Torian White, and Simon Goines—and they're back with junior Xavier Su'a-Filo, so the line will be better this year and presumably for the next two years as well. Obviously ground production looks slimmer without Franklin but not terrible by any means.
| 2012 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #59 Pass Defense per-game: #52 Per-attempt: #69 | ||
| Defense 5 ret. starters |
'12 Scoring Defense: #59 (raw) #39 (adjusted) | '12 sacks: #10 | '12 picks: #45 |
| '13 Projected Scoring Defense: #56 (adjusted) |
'13 sacks: #7 | '13 picks: #87 | |
Last year's defense was mediocre but had a fearsome pass rush. Despite the loss of defensive end Datone Jones (6.5 sacks, 12.5 tackles for loss) and linebacker Damien Holmes (5.5 sacks) it should be just as powerful as 5 of the front seven are back in the 3-4 defense. Cassius Marsh (8 sacks) leads the way up front and Anthony Barr (13.5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss) is a monster at linebacker, where #1 tackler Eric Kendricks (150 tackles) also returns. Owamagbe Odighizuwa will not be back on the D-line after hip surgery (he was out, then back, now out for sure). The secondary is the problem area as all four starters are gone. Dietrich Riley (started in 2011, out 2012) was supposed to return but he will miss 2013 too. Despite the returning talent in the front seven the defense as a whole drops in our estimation due to a questionable backfield.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Ka'ima Fairbairn (16 of 22 FG last year) is back but punter Jeff Locke (43.3 average) is gone. Freshman Sean Covington will take over.
- Return Game: Damian Thigpen averaged 26.9 yards per kickoff return and he'll be back at some point, while fellow RB Steven Manfro averaged 8.8 per punt. With Thigpen out early WRs Devin Fuller and Shaquille Evans may get more reps in the fielding unit.
- Turnovers projection: The defense loses all but 4 of their 15 interceptions and well over half of their pass breakups from last season, pointing to a decline in picks.
Coaching/Recruiting 2013 Recruiting Rank: #1 2012 Recruiting Rank: #9
Jim Mora has raised recruiting to championship level here, with a top ten class in his first year and now our #1 class of 2013. The Bruins don't have the most superstars—the best of the best, 5-star recruits—but in terms of consensus blue-chips they have an absolute abundance. And there is strength in numbers as sometimes the very top players fizzle out and the 2nd rung players become the great ones. Their top prize—defensive lineman Eddie Vanderdoes of Auburn, CA—actually committed to Notre Dame first and through a convoluted process transferred here and is eligible to play as a freshman. With 17 other consensus blue-chip recruits the effect of this class, and the one before it, points toward a bright future for the Bruins. Not to mention covering for some of this year's personnel losses in areas such as the secondary where Priest Willis from Tempe, AZ should help right away.
2012 Recap
UCLA played one incredible game and one terrible loss. The terrible loss was
at California, who finished 3-9, and it was a 43-17 beating.
The unbelievable win was a 66-10 destruction of Arizona. The rest of UCLA's season was pretty consistent. When they were good,
they beat USC 38-28 and nearly upset Stanford on the road, losing by 3.
When they weren't as good they were struggling to hold off Washington
State, or losing to Stanford 35-17 at home, and the bowl blowout by Baylor (49-26) counts, too. They beat Nebraska early and won five in row late to go 9-3 in the regular season but had to play Stanford again and ended up 9-5.
Last year's prediction: We didn't give the Bruins enough credit, projecting them 6-6 or 7-5. We did pick the Cal and Stanford losses but not the Nebraska or USC wins.
2013 Outlook
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UCLA 2013 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/31 | Sat | vs. | Nevada | 97% | W | |||
| 9/14 | Sat | @ | Nebraska | 59% | W | |||
| 9/21 | Sat | vs. | New Mexico State | 99% | W | |||
| 10/3 | Thu | @ | *Utah | 75% | W | |||
| 10/12 | Sat | vs. | *California | 94% | W | |||
| 10/19 | Sat | @ | *Stanford | 38% | L | |||
| 10/26 | Sat | @ | *Oregon | 11% | L | |||
| 11/2 | Sat | vs. | *Colorado | 96% | W | |||
| 11/9 | Sat | @ | *Arizona | 52% | W | |||
| 11/15 | Fri | vs. | *Washington | 49% | L | |||
| 11/23 | Sat | vs. | *Arizona State | 42% | L | |||
| 11/30 | Sat | @ | *USC | 39% | L | |||
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Straight up: 7-5 Cume: 8-4 Bowl eligible: 93%
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The cumulative projection for this season is pretty much exactly on the cusp of 7-5 and 8-4, leaning ever-so slightly to the latter; the "mode" chart suggests 7-5 is more likely by a hair, and the game-by-game projection agrees. Of course two of the November games are too close to call: at Arizona and Washington at home back-to-back could push things either way.
Nevada looks like a win regardless of how many starters might be out for the game (1 or 2, probably), and there's an extra week between the Wolf Pack and Nebraska. The latter is played in Lincoln this year and will be tough; we call it a win but make no promises. New Mexico State at home we can promise.
The Pac-12 season will be more of the same tough slog it's been for years. The Bruins can win at Utah and beat Cal at home but get Stanford and Oregon on the road back-to-back, though we give a decent chance at beating the Cardinal. Colorado at home should be another gimme, then they have the two key tossup games followed by tough contests vs. ASU and at USC.
It looks like UCLA will start about 6-2 and after that it's anyone's guess. As the #7 Pac-12 team (assuming two BCS reps from the Pac-12) UCLA would go to the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl and play BYU.
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