SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
| Texas A&M Aggies (SEC #2; West #2) |
 #3 |
2012 Results |
AP #5 USA #5 | Strength:#3 Success:#5 Overall:#3 |
| Record: 11-2 | Bowl: Beat Oklahoma 41-13 (Cotton) |
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| 2013 Outlook |
Picks: AP #7 | USA #6 | Lindy's #5 | Athlon #9 | Steele #11 |
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| Record: 10-2 | Bowl: Sugar (Eligibility odds: 99.9%) |
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Johnny Football is back, but is his supporting cast as good as last year's?
| Offense 6 ret. starters |
2012 Scoring Offense: #4 (raw) #2 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #2 (adjusted) |
WIth Johnny Manziel back—cross your fingers—the Aggie passing game and ground game look to be just as good as last year, and therefore the offense should remain one of the nation's very best.
| Passing Game |
2012 Passing Rank: #14 (raw) #12 (adjusted) | 2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #42 |
| 2013 Projected Passing Rank: #13 (adjusted) |
2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #44 |
Heisman winner Johnny Manziel (3,706 yards, 26 TDs, 9 int) has had (or created) his share of off-season distractions, from controversial tweets to negligent oversleeping to allegations that he charged for autographs. The latter may get him in trouble with the NCAA but as of right now Texas A&M officials stand by him and he is set to play in the opener. At receiver just two of the top six pass catchers are back; the Aggies lose Ryan Swope (913 yards, 8 TDs) but return #1 Mike Evans (1,105 yards, 5 TDs). As a passer Manziel was productive but not outrageously so and there's no reason he can't do it again—as long as he plays.
| Rushing | 2012 Rushing Rank: #11 (raw) #6 (adjusted) | 2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #5 (adj.) |
Manziel's running is what really won him the Heisman as he led the team with 1,410 yards and 21 touchdowns. Ben Malena was the top running back with 808 (8 TDs). Christine Michael (417, 12 TDs) departs but Trey Williams (#4 with 376) is back. They add transfers Brandon Williams (219 yards at Oklahoma in 2011) and Tra Carson (254 at Oregon '11). The offensive line returns three starters: Jake Matthews, Cedric Ogbuehi, and Jarvis Harrison. They lose star Luke Joeckel to the NFL but Matthews is a future 1st round pick himself. Manziel may carry less of the load this season but the running game should remain as strong.
| 2012 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #35 Pass Defense per-game: #87 Per-attempt: #30 | ||
| Defense 5 ret. starters |
'12 Scoring Defense: #28 (raw) #18 (adjusted) | '12 sacks: #34 | '12 picks: #62 |
| '13 Projected Scoring Defense: #23 (adjusted) |
'13 sacks: #62 | '13 picks: #53 | |
The Aggies lose quite a bit on D, with the biggest loss being #1 tacklers Damonte Moore (12.5 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss). The D-line does return two starters including Kirby Ennis, who is suspended for game one. At linebacker #2 tackler Jonathan Stewart is gone but #3 Steven Jenkins returns. Dustin Harris (11 pass breakups) is the key loss in the secondary; DeShazor Everett is back but is suspended for the first half of game one due to an assault charge. If assault only gets you a half-game suspension at A&M, it's no wonder they aren't suspending Manziel. Or maybe it's related to status on the team; Floyd Raven is out a full game for the same incident. In any case the defense appears to be weaker, but not so much so that it would drag the team down.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Kicker Taylor Bertolet (13 of 22 FG) is back and fellow soph Drew Kaser will replace punter Ryan Epperson (42.0 ave).
- Return Game: Trey Williams (22.3 average) will again return kickoffs while punt fielder Dustin Harris (12.7 average) who had 1 touchdown return, departs. Corner DeVante Harris will take over.
- Turnovers projection: No major changes seen.
Coaching/Recruiting 2013 Recruiting Rank: #6 2012 Recruiting Rank: #22
Kevin Sumlin's 2nd recruiting class is a winner, ranking in the top ten nationally. Though Sumlin didn't bring Johnny Manziel to A&M, his use of Manziel in the offense and willingness to let him improvise on broken plays shows recruits his flexibility in player development. Manziel's Heisman and beating Alabama gave the program a big boost. Sumlin could have the best of both worlds in recruiting terms: being in Texas and being in the SEC could give him access to the entire South. For now, the vast majority of recruits still come from in-state.
2012 Recap
Texas A&M was an unknown quantity heading into the Florida game since the opener against Louisiana Tech was postponed. 2011's team led by Ryan Tannehill underachieved to a 6-6 record. Their freshman quarterback made his debut against what proved to be the nation's #3 defense. They lost 20-17, but Manziel and the offense proved themselves by
scoring 48, 70, and 58 in their next three games against SMU, S.C.
State, and Arkansas. They edged Mississippi 30-27 and then won a crazy
59-57 shootout with Louisiana Tech which again put their offense on display
but also highlighted defensive problems, and brought back the spectre of
letting teams back in the game in the 2nd half. Facing a second great SEC defense, the team fell to LSU 24-19. So
even after they trounced Auburn and Mississippi State, the big
games looked out of their reach as Manziel and the offense had played
poorly against the #3 and #10 defense and would have to face the #1
defense in Alabama. But with help from their own defense, Manziel & company upset the Tide and Manziel was on his way to the
Heisman Trophy. He completed obliterated the "Heisman Jinx" in the bowl game as the Aggies crushed Oklahoma 41-13 in the Cotton Bowl.
Last year's prediction: We noted that 2011's 6-6 team was vastly underrated so we kept the Aggies in the top 25 at #21, predicting that they'd have a near-top-ten offense. We projected a 7-5 cumulative record, or 9-3 game-by-game in their first season in the tough SEC. What we didn't account for is Johnny Manziel, who did more than we possibly could have foreseen as a freshman.
2013 Outlook
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Texas A&M 2013 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/31 | Sat | vs. | Rice | 92% | W | |||
| 9/7 | Sat | vs. | Sam Houston St. | 97% | W | |||
| 9/14 | Sat | vs. | *Alabama | 44% | L | |||
| 9/21 | Sat | vs. | SMU | 99% | W | |||
| 9/28 | Sat | @ | *Arkansas | 98% | W | |||
| 10/12 | Sat | @ | *Mississippi | 66% | W | |||
| 10/19 | Sat | vs. | *Auburn | 97% | W | |||
| 10/26 | Sat | vs. | *Vanderbilt | 92% | W | |||
| 11/2 | Sat | vs. | UTEP | 99% | W | |||
| 11/9 | Sat | vs. | *Mississippi State | 94% | W | |||
| 11/23 | Sat | @ | *LSU | 72% | W | |||
| 11/30 | Sat | @ | *Missouri | 84% | W | |||
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Straight up: 11-1 Cume: 10-2 Odds of 12-0: 13%
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Rice and Sam Houston State should serve as warmups for the Alabama game. A few defensive starters will miss the Rice game and there was speculation that Manziel could, too, but as of this writing it seems he will play. Alabama is probably too good for the Aggies, even in College Station, but that was the case last year and they got the upset. It should be a great game.
After that, their big tests are Mississippi on the road, LSU on the road, and keeping their focus as they play teams like SMU, Arkansas, Auburn, and UTEP; it will probably be easier if they lost the Alabama game than if they win it. Vanderbilt at home and Missouri on the road could be traps. The cumulative projection is for 10 wins, leaning toward 11 (and 11-1 is the most likely single outcome), with a 13% chance of going 12-0.
Assuming they drop the 'Bama game, the Aggies as our #2 SEC team would go to the Sugar Bowl where we've paired them with Oklahoma State.
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