SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
| TCU Horned Frogs (Big Twelve #4) |
 #24 |
2012 Results |
AP #33 USA NR | Strength:#26 Success:#45 Overall:#26 |
| Record: 7-6 | Bowl: Lost to Michigan State 17-16 (BWW) |
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| 2013 Outlook |
Picks: AP #20 | USA #20 | Lindy's #22 | Athlon #20 | Steele #17 |
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| Record: 8-4 | Bowl: Alamo (Eligibility odds: 94%) |
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The defense should lead the way again for the Frogs, and if a few returning stars can help the offense step up then it could really be a good year.
| Offense 4 ret. starters |
2012 Scoring Offense: #75 (raw) #64 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #59 (adjusted) |
Casey Pachall is back but a lot of last year's offense is not.
| Passing Game |
2012 Passing Rank: #61 (raw) #53 (adjusted) | 2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #85 |
| 2013 Projected Passing Rank: #46 (adjusted) |
2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #103 |
Casey Pachall was having a great season early on (66%, 948 yards, 10 TDs, 1 int) before he went to rehab and Trevone Boykin (2,054 yards, 15 TDs, 10 int) took over. Pachall, who had 2,921 yards, 25 TDs, and 7 interceptions in 2011 is back and presumably sobered up and will again lead the Horned Frog offense. He'll miss #1 receiver Josh Boyce (891 yards, 7 TDs) but #2 Brandon Carter (590, 6) is back along with #s 4 through 6, all of whom had over 150 yards. The offensive line allowed 29 sacks last year and protection could be a bigger problem with three starters gone. It's a bit surprising that we don't show a bigger gain with Pachall back but TCU was just #63 in 2011, so this is a big step up from that while losing their #1 and #3 receivers. Plus, will Pachall pick right up where he left off or will he be rusty from the layoff and detox?
| Rushing | 2012 Rushing Rank: #68 (raw) #57 (adjusted) | 2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #66 (adj.) |
B.J. Catalon (582 yards, 0 TDs) ended up being TCU's leading rusher against all odds. It was supposed to be any of Ed Wesley, Waymon James, or Matthew Tucker, naturally. Tucker finished 2nd with 515 (6 TDs) as he was hurt all year; James was #5 with 168 (9.9 average) and tore his ACL after 2 games; and Wesley quit before the season began. James (875 yards in 2011) is back and should be the starter, though Nebraska transfer Aaron Green (105 in 2011) is a candidate if James isn't 100%. Oh, and Catalon is back, too, don't forget him. QB Boykin added 417 yards and we won't see that from Pachall. The offensive line returns just two starters—Eric Tausch and Aviante Collins—since Tayo Fabuluje recently quit. It doesn't seem there's a proven, 100% healthy back here, the line isn't as strong, and no more running QB; that looks like more mediocre numbers, though a healthy James could change that quickly.
| 2012 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #7 Pass Defense per-game: #19 Per-attempt: #28 | ||
| Defense 8 ret. starters |
'12 Scoring Defense: #23 (raw) #12 (adjusted) | '12 sacks: #21 | '12 picks: #5 |
| '13 Projected Scoring Defense: #6 (adjusted) |
'13 sacks: #10 | '13 picks: #2 | |
The Frogs' killer 4-2-5 returns three starters up front including Devonte Fields (10 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss) and they might even improve on their 29 sacks from last year (Fields is supended for the first two games). The top ten rushing defense might be jeopardized by the loss of both linebackers, as top tackler Kenny Cain (86 tackles) is gone and #2 Joel Hasley recently left the team (he walked-on, now he walked-off). The secondary can pick up some of the slack as all five starters return including Sam Carter (10 pass breakups) and Jason Verrett (15 pass breakups, 6 interceptions). Despite the hole in the middle we see good things and a top ten scoring defense from the Frogs.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Both kicker Jaden Obercrom (22 of 30 FG) and punter Ethan Perry (44.5 ave) are back.
- Return Game: Skye Dawson (23.1 on kickoffs, 9.4 on punts) was the main return man last year and he's gone, but there are good solutions; Brandon Carter (25.1) will move in to take kickoffs and Deante Gray (22.4 average on 7 punts w/1 touchdown return) will field punts.
- Turnovers projection: No major changes seen.
Coaching/Recruiting 2013 Recruiting Rank: #36 2012 Recruiting Rank: #34
Gary Patterson is probably getting the best recruits he ever has now that he's in the Big Twelve, but of course the competition is greater. This year's class ranks roughly in the middle of the Pac-12 whereas it would have ranked #1 in the Mountain West.
2012 Recap
TCU lost their top rusher and starting quarterback by game 4, and the losses started mounting after that. They fell to Iowa State 37-23 but walloped Baylor 49-21. The Frogs lost to Texas Tech 56-53 in 3 overtimes and were crushed by Oklahoma State 36-14. They got their own multi-overtime win (39-38 over West Virginia) but lost to Kansas State and Oklahoma, with a win over Texas in-between for a 7-5 record. As expected the bowl game against Michigan State was a defensive struggle, one the Frogs lost 17-16.
Last year's prediction: We got a lot right; we put the Horned Frogs at #27 and in terms of Strength if not success that's right about where they ended up. We also projected a 7-5 season for TCU, even if our wins and losses didn't match up that well. In other words, the cumulative projection of 7-5 was correct, but our game-by-game projection of 7-5 was way off.
2013 Outlook
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TCU 2013 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/31 | Sat | vs. | LSU | 51% | W | |||
| 9/7 | Sat | vs. | SE Louisiana | 100% | W | |||
| 9/14 | Sat | @ | *Texas Tech | 68% | W | |||
| 9/28 | Sat | vs. | SMU | 90% | W | |||
| 10/5 | Sat | @ | *Oklahoma | 40% | L | |||
| 10/12 | Sat | vs. | *Kansas | 95% | W | |||
| 10/19 | Sat | @ | *Oklahoma State | 21% | L | |||
| 10/26 | Sat | vs. | *Texas | 31% | L | |||
| 11/2 | Sat | vs. | *West Virginia | 91% | W | |||
| 11/9 | Sat | @ | *Iowa State | 68% | W | |||
| 11/16 | Sat | @ | *Kansas State | 49% | L | |||
| 11/30 | Sat | vs. | *Baylor | 66% | W | |||
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Straight up: 8-4 Cume: 8-4 Bowl eligible: 94%
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Our 8-4 game-by-game prediction for the Horned Frogs includes two very close games: the opener in Arlington against LSU (a game that would flip to the Tigers if Jeremy Hill is allowed to play—but back again to TCU if Devonte Fields plays), and the 2nd-to-last game of the year at Kansas State. Win both of those—and Oklahoma on the road which is within reach—and TCU could be 10-2. They even get Texas at home, so we shouldn't rule that out. Only Oklahoma State on the road looks like a solid loss, and who knows if the Cowboys are going to live up to the hype?
The 8-4 cumulative estimate takes into account TCU's chances of being upset by foes such as Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Baylor (TCU lost to 2 of those 3 last year). The "lock" wins on the schedule appear to be Southeastern Louisiana (of course) and Kansas at home, with SMU and West Virginia not far behind.
If TCU ends up the #4 Big Twelve team they might go to the Alamo Bowl and face the #3 Pac-12 team, perhaps Oregon State.
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