SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
| Stanford Cardinal (Pac-12 #5; North #4) |
 #19 |
2012 Results |
AP #7 USA #6 | Strength:#13 Success:#7 Overall:#8 |
| Record: 12-2 | Bowl: Beat Wisconsin 20-14 (Rose) |
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| 2013 Outlook |
Picks: AP #4 | USA #4 | Lindy's #3 | Athlon #7 | Steele #8 |
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| Record: 7-5 | Bowl: Sun (Eligibility odds: 91%) |
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Is it possible that Stanford is actually overrated? If so, then the program has truly arrived.
| Offense 5 ret. starters |
2012 Scoring Offense: #71 (raw) #45 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #70 (adjusted) |
The Stanford O loses Stepfan Taylor and all of its top receivers.
| Passing Game |
2012 Passing Rank: #96 (raw) #93 (adjusted) | 2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #19 |
| 2013 Projected Passing Rank: #115 (adjusted) |
2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #14 |
Josh Nunes (1,643 yards, 10 TDs, 7 int) began the year as the starter but he was replaced and by the following spring had retired from football due to an injury. Kevin Hogan (1,096 yards, 9 TDs, 3 int) took over mid-season and led the team to impressive wins, and completed 72% to Nunes' 53%. Hogan is the clear starter now but the team's top five receivers from last year are gone including tight end Zach Ertz who led with 898 yards and 6 TDs. Ty Montgomery (213 yards) is the leading returnee. The offensive line's solid protection (20 sacks) will continue to be a plus, but the team needs targets and without them the going may get tough.
| Rushing | 2012 Rushing Rank: #49 (raw) #42 (adjusted) | 2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #53 (adj.) |
The main takeaway in the ground game is that Stepfan Taylor (1,530 yards, 13 TDs) is gone. That fact outweights other considerations, such as: 1) three other rushers return, each of whom had over 150 yards; 2) the #2 rusher, QB Kevin Hogan (263) will be seeing a lot more reps as full-time starter; 3) Tyler Gaffney had 449 yards in 2011 and returns to the team after playing baseball last year; 4) the offensive line returns four starters; and 5) they have Barry Friggin' Sanders' son (Barry Sanders Jr.) on the squad! Despite item #5, it's Anthony Wilkerson (224 yards) who is expected to start, or perhaps Gaffney. The o-line returns starters Khalil Wilkes, Kevin Danser, David Yankey, and Cameron Fleming, so whoever runs behind it should do well, but Taylor's absence is still the key fact.
| 2012 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #3 Pass Defense per-game: #31 Per-attempt: #6 | ||
| Defense 8 ret. starters |
'12 Scoring Defense: #11 (raw) #4 (adjusted) | '12 sacks: #3 | '12 picks: #37 |
| '13 Projected Scoring Defense: #1 (adjusted) |
'13 sacks: #2 | '13 picks: #7 | |
Stanford's defense last year was excellent across the board. They went back and forth all year with Notre Dame and Alabama as the top rushing defense, settling for 3rd place in the end. Teams couldn't run on the Cardinal so they passed more often, but per-play they were top ten there, too. Their pass rush was top five and the defense finished #4 in adjusted scoring allowed. The defensive line returns Ben Gardner (7.5 sacks) and Henry Anderson (5.5 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss), and with Trent Murphy (10 sacks, 8 tackles for loss) among three starting linebackers that return, the fearsome Stanford pass rush may get even better. They do lose LB Chase Thomas (7.5 sacks) but #1 tackler Shane Skov (81 tackles) returns. Three starters are back in the secondary, too, including Jordan Richards (12 pass breakups) and Ed Reynolds (6 interceptions); we think they could have considerably more than last year's 15 picks, too. Add it all up and Stanford actually projects as our #1 defense, even ahead of Alabama. The Tide have had the #1 adjusted scoring defense for four straight years so that would be quite an accomplishment.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Kicker Jordan Williamson (17 of 27 field goals last season) is back while punter Daniel Zychlinski (43.1 average) departs. Ben Rhyne (41.1 average on 9 punts last year) will take over.
- Return Game: Ty Montgomery averaged 26.6 yards per kickoff return and had a touchdown return in 2011. He's back while Drew Terrell (12.1 average, 1 TD on punts) is gone; Kodi Whitfield may get the call there.
- Turnovers projection: The defense should have more picks this year, though that might be offset by less luck on fumble recoveries.
Coaching/Recruiting 2013 Recruiting Rank: #77 2012 Recruiting Rank: #7
After last year's top ten class Stanford ranks dead last in the Pac-12 in 2013. It's partly due to numbers; last year's class was simply larger than this year's 12-man group. But last year's group had a higher percentage of blue-chip recruits than this year, too. While Stanford has raised their profile considerably over the last several years, this class makes for a stark comparison to the "old guard" if you can call USC that. The Trojans only recruited 12 players, too, but we rank their class #3 in the Pac-12 and in the top 20 nationally.
2012 Recap
Stanford's first game—a 20-17 win over San Jose State—was a disappointment at the time, but the
Spartans turned out to be an 11-2 team. Then the Cardinal scored 50
on Duke, a future bowl team. By the time they beat pre-season #1 USC
people took them seriously. But they lost to Washington 17-13 the next week, struggled to a
54-48 overtime win over Arizona, and lost to Notre Dame 20-13 (OT), their season at 4-2
was back to being a bit disappointing. Three wins followed,
but starting with the 48-0 Colorado shutout the team was clicking: they beat
ranked Oregon State 27-23, then upset Oregon 17-14 (OT) on the road, and beat UCLA twice
to win the Pac-12 title. The first win over the Bruins (35-17) was much better
than the 2nd one (27-24), but that's understandable. Though all their best wins came with Kevin Hogan at QB, it was really
the defense that made the difference down the stretch; from the
Colorado shutout to allowing just 14 points from Oregon, the defense was
the key while the offense continued to do "just enough."
Last year's prediction: We ranked Stanford #11 last year, a pretty fair prediction. We projected a 9-3 record and they went 10-2, beating USC and Oregon but losing to Washington. We did get the Notre Dame loss and everything else correct.
2013 Outlook
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Stanford 2013 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/7 | Sat | vs. | San Jose State | 80% | W | |||
| 9/14 | Sat | @ | Army | 95% | W | |||
| 9/21 | Sat | vs. | *Arizona State | 45% | L | |||
| 9/28 | Sat | @ | *Washington State | 75% | W | |||
| 10/5 | Sat | vs. | *Washington | 53% | W | |||
| 10/12 | Sat | @ | *Utah | 78% | W | |||
| 10/19 | Sat | vs. | *UCLA | 63% | W | |||
| 10/26 | Sat | @ | *Oregon State | 32% | L | |||
| 11/7 | Thu | vs. | *Oregon | 25% | L | |||
| 11/16 | Sat | @ | *USC | 43% | L | |||
| 11/23 | Sat | vs. | *California | 95% | W | |||
| 11/30 | Sat | vs. | Notre Dame | 62% | W | |||
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Straight up: 8-4 Cume: 7-5 Bowl eligible: 91%
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Stanford won't underestimate San Jose State again, and Army shouldn't give the Cardinal any trouble, but Arizona State will be tough to beat this year even at home. Stanford should beat Washington State pretty easily on the road but Washington is also going to be very tough to beat but we give that one to the Cardinal, barely. Utah should fall and Stanford ought to beat UCLA for the third time in less than a year in October. A 6-1 start is expected.
Next up is a stretch of three very tough games: at Oregon State, Oregon at home, and at USC. How they do on this stretch will determine how much of a success the season is. The Cal game is a win unless Stanford looks ahead to Notre Dame, and they should get their revenge on the Irish.
That adds up to 8-4, while the cumulative estimate points barely to a 7-5 expectation. That's what happens when you have a really tough schedule, even if you're a good team. If Stanford ends up #4 in the Pac-12 they'll go to the Sun Bowl and face the #4 ACC team, which might be Georgia Tech or North Carolina.
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