SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
South Carolina Gamecocks (SEC #5; East #2) |
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2012 Results |
AP #8 USA #7 | Strength:#12 Success:#9 Overall:#9 |
Record: 11-2 | Bowl: Beat Michigan 33-28 (Outback) |
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2013 Outlook |
Picks: AP #6 | USA #7 | Lindy's #9 | Athlon #5 | Steele #14 |
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Record: 9-3 | Bowl: Cotton (Eligibility odds: 98%) |
Marcus Lattimore was the face of the Gamecocks for three years, but now it's Jadeveon Clowney's team.
Offense 6 ret. starters |
2012 Scoring Offense: #44 (raw) #26 (adjusted for opposition) |
2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #24 (adjusted) |
The Gamecocks lose Marcus Lattimore but now they have two quarterbacks.
Passing Game |
2012 Passing Rank: #57 (raw) #49 (adjusted) | 2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #106 |
2013 Projected Passing Rank: #42 (adjusted) |
2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #97 |
Connor Shaw (1,956 yards, 17 TDs, 7 int) played well last year but missed a lot of time, so Dylan Thompson (1,027 yards, 10 TDs, 2 int) filled in more than adequately. Both are going to be used this year in a tandem system. We'll see how that goes. Top receiver Bruce Ellington (600 yards) is back while #2 Ace Sanders (530) departs; in all four of the top six return. The offensive line has to solve its sieve-like tendencies that allowed 38 sacks last year; four starters are back so things should be at least a little better. In all production should improve but who knows how long the 2-QB system will last.
Rushing | 2012 Rushing Rank: #91 (raw) #73 (adjusted) | 2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #70 (adj.) |
Marcus Lattimore (662 yards, 11 TDs) never fully realized his potential at South Carolina, getting injured two years in a row, with last year's being a horrific one on constant TV replay. He will be missed but at least they are used to his absence. Connor Shaw was 2nd with 435 yards, and top RB Kenny Miles (359) departs. That leaves sophomore Mike Davis (275) as the go-to runner. The offensive line has four starters back: Roland Patrick, A.J. Cann, Corey Robinson, and Brandon Shell. The ground game wasn't great last year and with a stronger O-line production should be up a bit.
2012 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #13 Pass Defense per-game: #10 Per-attempt: #10 | ||
Defense 5 ret. starters |
'12 Scoring Defense: #14 (raw) #9 (adjusted) | '12 sacks: #1 | '12 picks: #29 |
'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #14 (adjusted) |
'13 sacks: #6 | '13 picks: #50 |
The universe of the Gamecock defense centers around Jadeveon Clowney (13 sacks, plus 10.5 tackles for loss), a legitimate Heisman candidate and clear favorite for defensive player of the year. Two starters are gone from the South Carolina defensive line including Aldrick Fordham (5.5 sacks) but with backup Chaz Sutton (5 sacks) moving into the starting lineup, last year's #1 adjusted pass rush will still be potent. Oh, and partly due to the return of Clowney, of course. Unfortunately things aren't so rosey at linebacker where all three starters are gone including #1 tackler Shaq Wilson (86 tackles). They also lose D.J. Swearinger from the secondary but three starters return there. In all the defense loses their top four tacklers (the linebackers plus Swearinger)—but the return of the #5 tackler (Clowney) insures that the defense will remain one of the best in the nation.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Punter Tyler Hull (39.4 average) returns but kicker Adam Yates (11 of 17 field goals) departs; his replacement will be sophomore Landon Ard or perhaps true freshman walk-on Elliot Fry.
- Return Game: Bruce Ellington (22.6 average) will continue to handle kickoff returns but Ace Sanders (15.3 average on punts with 2 touchdown returns) is gone. Corner Victor Hampton will get a shot.
- Turnovers projection: Fumbles should be kinder to the Gamecocks this year, but despite three starters back in the secondary we see the number of interceptions shrinking, offsetting the fumble gain.
Coaching/Recruiting 2013 Recruiting Rank: #21 2012 Recruiting Rank: #18
Another solid class from Steve Spurrier, the Ole Head Ball Coach or whatever. But with the insanity that is SEC recruiting these days, that ranks only #9 in the conference. Talk about running full speed in order to stand still! The class lacks the super-blue-chip players that most of the teams in the SEC have one or more of, and is pretty low on consensus blue-chips for the conference. Still, it's a top 25 class, can't really complain about that, especially since Spurrier has the Gamecock program at its peak.
2012 Recap
South Carolina started the year with a shaky win at Vanderbilt (17-13) and a
blowout of East Carolina (48-10); both those teams finished the regular season 8-4, so in
retrospect it was a good start. They won three more before facing
Georgia and pummelling the Bulldogs 35-7, and at that point visions of
competing for SEC and national titles danced in their heads. But they couldn't do that to LSU (losing 23-21), and worse yet,
Florida did it to them (44-11). The Gamecocks came
home to face Tennessee, a narrow 38-35 win marred by Marcus Lattimore's
injury. Luckily the team had easy games against a down Arkansas and
Wofford to get their bearings in time to face in-state rival Clemson. In
what was in many ways their best win of the season they beat the Tigers
27-17 on the road without Lattimore and without starting QB Connor Shaw. Against Michigan the team fell behind but rallied to win 33-28, a victory punctuated by Jadeveon Clowney's helmet-popping hit on Wolverine RB Vincent Smith.
Last year's prediction: We ranked the Gamecocks #16, which is pretty fair considering they finished #12 in Strength. With their SEC schedule, though, we projected an 8-4 finish, with tossup losses to Georgia and Clemson that turned out to be dominant wins instead.
2013 Outlook
South Carolina 2013 schedule & forecast |
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8/29 | Thu | vs. | North Carolina | 74% | W | |||
9/7 | Sat | @ | *Georgia | 23% | L | |||
9/14 | Sat | vs. | *Vanderbilt | 75% | W | |||
9/28 | Sat | @ | UCF | 76% | W | |||
10/5 | Sat | vs. | *Kentucky | 91% | W | |||
10/12 | Sat | @ | *Arkansas | 90% | W | |||
10/19 | Sat | @ | *Tennessee | 72% | W | |||
10/26 | Sat | @ | *Missouri | 60% | W | |||
11/2 | Sat | vs. | *Mississippi State | 80% | W | |||
11/16 | Sat | vs. | *Florida | 61% | W | |||
11/23 | Sat | vs. | Coastal Carolina | 99% | W | |||
11/30 | Sat | vs. | Clemson | 60% | W | |||
Straight up: 11-1 Cume: 9-3 Bowl eligible: 98%
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Our cumulative estimate for the Gamecocks is a decent but not great 9-3, but game-by-game it sure looks like South Carolina ought to be 11-1 this year. North Carolina looks like a win even if they will likely be missing a few important players. But Georgia looks like a revenge-laden beatdown by the Bulldogs. If they win there, the Gamecocks really have the chance for a great season.
Vandy and UCF will provide a test, but Kentucky and Arkansas shouldn't. Tennessee, Missouri, and especially Florida will be their hardest conference games besides Georgia. They close with Clemson and even at home that's as hard as any SEC team they face other than the Bulldogs.
If South Carolina is the #5 team in the SEC they should go to the Cotton Bowl and face the #3 Big Twelve team, possibly Oklahoma.
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