SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
| Oregon State Beavers (Pac-12 #3; North #2) |
 #10 |
2012 Results |
AP #20 USA #19 | Strength:#10 Success:#23 Overall:#16 |
| Record: 9-4 | Bowl: Lost to Texas 31-27 (Alamo) |
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| 2013 Outlook |
Picks: AP #25 | USA #23 | Lindy's #31 | Athlon #25 | Steele #23 |
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| Record: 9-3 | Bowl: Alamo (Eligibility odds: 99.5%) |
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Pretty much every forecaster thinks Oregon State is going to be just as good as they were last year. Difference is, we ranked them #10 (in Strength) at the end of the season, and there they remain.
| Offense 8 ret. starters |
2012 Scoring Offense: #36 (raw) #20 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #12 (adjusted) |
With two good quarterbacks Oregon State has a problem most teams would love to have.
| Passing Game |
2012 Passing Rank: #20 (raw) #16 (adjusted) | 2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #87 |
| 2013 Projected Passing Rank: #8 (adjusted) |
2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #79 |
Sean Mannion (2,446 yards, 15 TDs, 13 int) and Cody Vaz (1,480 yards, 11 TDs, 3 int) have a quarterback controversy of sorts going on. Most think Vaz will get the nod but the starter has yet to be determined. Either way the team knows a great backup is available. The receiver corps' dynamic duo of Markus Wheaton (1,244 yards, 11 TDs) and Brandin Cooks (1,151 yards, 5 TDs) will be no more as Wheaton departs, but four others who had 150+ yards are back. QB protection wasn't that bad (34 sacks) considering the volume of throws in this offense, and with four starters back the line should reduce that. There was a big difference between QBs, as Mannion was sacked 12 times vs. 309 (3.9%) attempts and Vaz was sacked 22 times vs. 185 (11.9%). We assume both QBs will see plenty of time but if only one does that probably means he's doing pretty damn well. The passing game should rank in the top ten (after adjustment for opposition) this year.
| Rushing | 2012 Rushing Rank: #102 (raw) #91 (adjusted) | 2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #80 (adj.) |
Oregon State's two top rushers from a year ago, Storm Woods (940 yards, 13 TDs) and Terron Ward (415 yards, 6 TDs) are back, while numbers 3 and 4 depart (combined 411). The offensive line is in good shape with four returning starters: seniors Grant Enger and Josh Andrews, junior Michael Phillip, and sophomore Isaac Seumalo. The Beavers run a passing offense (neither QB a runner) so progress will be limited but should occur.
| 2012 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #14 Pass Defense per-game: #47 Per-attempt: #14 | ||
| Defense 7 ret. starters |
'12 Scoring Defense: #24 (raw) #11 (adjusted) | '12 sacks: #79 | '12 picks: #7 |
| '13 Projected Scoring Defense: #12 (adjusted) |
'13 sacks: #87 | '13 picks: #12 | |
Two starting defensive linemen return to the 4-3 including Scott Crichton (9 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss). Two starting linebackers return as well, #1 tackler Michael Doctor (83 tackles, 11 tackles for loss) and A.J. Alexander, who will probably miss the first few games with a knee injury. The defense probably won't have 20 interceptions again as the secondary loses Jordan Poyer (7 int) but Rashaad Reynolds (13 pass breakups) returns. The defense should be roughly as strong as last season; there may be some weakness in the 2nd string but the top five tacklers are back.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Both Trevor Romaine (16 of 18 field goals) and Keith Kostol (41.9 yards/punt) are back.
- Return Game: Terron Ward (22.5 average on kickoffs) is back but corner Jordan Poyer (7.1 on punts) is not. New juco corner Steven Nelson may take over.
- Turnovers projection: Oregon State's fumble luck will probably run out this year, and they won't match 20 picks on defense either. The interception situation on offense is complicated by who starts and even then we don't really forecast a big drop. So overall, turnovers may turn against the Beavers compared to last year.
Coaching/Recruiting 2013 Recruiting Rank: #26 2012 Recruiting Rank: #53
Mike Riley brings in a pretty darn good class of recruits for 2012; it's roughly average for the Pac-12 who has about seven teams crowding the bottom of the top 25. Their sole consensus blue chip is Dashon Hunt, DB from the L.A. area.
2012 Recap
Oregon State started strong and after three games had arguably
accomplished more than any team at that point; their opening game vs.
Nicholls State had been postponed so they never had a "warmup" game but
they edged Wisconsin 10-7 with a fantastic defensive effort, then beat UCLA
27-20, and Arizona 38-35. They made it to 6-0 before being upset at Washington 20-17, and after that
fell to top ten teams Stanford (27-23) and Oregon (48-24) while blasting California 62-14 and
Nicholls State 77-3 in the rescheduled game. Though they won early with
defense, those two offensive performances were "off-the-charts", along
with scoring 42 at stingy BYU. The BYU game featured Vaz at QB while
Mannion played the beginning and end of the season.
Last year's prediction: We had the Beavers barely making it to a bowl game at 6-6, not coasting into one at 9-3.
2013 Outlook
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Oregon State 2013 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/31 | Sat | vs. | Eastern Washington | 98% | W | |||
| 9/7 | Sat | vs. | Hawaii | 99% | W | |||
| 9/14 | Sat | @ | *Utah | 85% | W | |||
| 9/21 | Sat | @ | San Diego State | 80% | W | |||
| 9/28 | Sat | vs. | *Colorado | 98% | W | |||
| 10/12 | Sat | @ | *Washington State | 82% | W | |||
| 10/19 | Sat | @ | *California | 93% | W | |||
| 10/26 | Sat | vs. | *Stanford | 68% | W | |||
| 11/1 | Fri | vs. | *USC | 70% | W | |||
| 11/16 | Sat | @ | *Arizona State | 38% | L | |||
| 11/23 | Sat | vs. | *Washington | 63% | W | |||
| 11/29 | Fri | @ | *Oregon | 19% | L | |||
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Straight up: 10-2 Cume: 9-3 Odds of 12-0: 1%
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Oregon State's first two games could hardly be easier—actually they could because Eastern Washington (11-3 last year) is a very good FCS team. But they and Hawaii have little chance of beating the Beavers. The road games at Utah and San Diego State could be challenging if those teams are significantly better than we project. Colorado is another near-gimme. The games start to get tougher but since they get both Stanford and USC at home we favor them even in those, too. They face Arizona State and Oregon both on the road, however, and those we call losses.
If the game-by-game projections come true, last year's 6-0 start will seem like nothing as they go 9-0 before losing the ASU. But the cumulative projection says that going 9-3 like last year is the more reasonable assumption. Still, their four toughest games are in the last five weeks, so they could win 7 or more games before facing a loss even at 9-3.
In any case, if they are the #3 Pac-12 team they'll go back to the Alamo Bowl and face the #4 Big Twelve team which may be TCU this year. Same bowl, different Texas team.
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