SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
| Oregon Ducks (Pac-12 #1; North #1) |
 #2 |
2012 Results |
AP #2 USA #2 | Strength:#2 Success:#6 Overall:#2 |
| Record: 12-1 | Bowl: Beat Kansas State 35-17 (Fiesta) |
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| 2013 Outlook |
Picks: AP #3 | USA #3 | Lindy's #4 | Athlon #3 | Steele #3 |
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| Record: 11-1 | Bowl: BCS Championship (Eligibility odds: 99.9%) |
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Another year, another great Oregon football team.
| Offense 8 ret. starters |
2012 Scoring Offense: #2 (raw) #1 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #1 (adjusted) |
Oregon had the top offense in the country last year, and there's no good reason to think they won't again this year.
| Passing Game |
2012 Passing Rank: #73 (raw) #75 (adjusted) | 2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #14 |
| 2013 Projected Passing Rank: #48 (adjusted) |
2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #17 |
Oregon doesn't pass in volume but with Marcus Mariota (2,677 yards, 32 TDs, 6 int) at the helm they do so efficiently. None of their receivers topped 500 yards last year but nine players had over 100 receiving yards and seven of them are back, led by Josh Huff with 493 (7 TDs) and RB DeAnthony Thomas with 445 (5 TDs). Mariota was the 2nd best redshirt freshman QB in the country (behind Johnny Manziel) and the passing numbers should go up in his sophomore year, provided he avoids the "sophomore slump."
| Rushing | 2012 Rushing Rank: #3 (raw) #2 (adjusted) | 2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #4 (adj.) |
Kenjon Barner (1,767 yards, 21 TDs) was another in a growing line of Oregon backs who put up outrageous numbers. DeAnthony Thomas (701 yards, 11 TDs, 7.6 ypc) will probably be the next. QB Mariota added 752 net yards and 5 touchdowns, and Byron Marshall had 447. Is that enough to replace Barner? Probably not, but they'll come close. The offensive line has three starters back, Jake Fisher, Hroniss Grasu, and Tyler Johnstone.
Thomas' sophomore stats are remarkably similar to those of Reggie Bush's sophomore season, where he was more of an all-purpose runner; Bush had 908 rushing yards, 6 TDs, 6.3 ypc, 509 receiving yards (7 TDs), and 2 touchdowns on kick returns. The next year Bush was set free at running back and won the Heisman. If Thomas is used as extensively at RB as Barner was (278 carries), he has to be considered among the top Heisman candidates in 2013.
| 2012 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #48 Pass Defense per-game: #40 Per-attempt: #2 | ||
| Defense 7 ret. starters |
'12 Scoring Defense: #27 (raw) #17 (adjusted) | '12 sacks: #89 | '12 picks: #1 |
| '13 Projected Scoring Defense: #10 (adjusted) |
'13 sacks: #86 | '13 picks: #1 | |
The Ducks played good defense last year; even when they gave up yardage those yards didn't get converted to points very frequently, often because of interceptions that stopped drives. The defensive line returns 2 of three starters; Dion Jordan (5 sacks) is gone but Taylor Hart (8 sacks) is back. At linebacker the Ducks lose their top 2 tacklers, Michael Clay (101 tackles) and Kiko Alonso (13 tackles for loss, 4 interceptions). The secondary returns all four starters including Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (16 pass breakups, 4 int), and their interceptions leader was backup Erick Dargan (5 int). We don't expect the D to match last year's 26 interceptions but they could come close, and if they overcome the weakness at linebacker could be a top ten scoring defense.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Punter Jackson Rice (40.0 average) and senior Alejandro Maldonado won the job; as placekicker he made just 3 of 6 field goals last year but Rob Beard (4 of 8) is gone and Maldonado is in the race with freshman Matt Wogan to take over.
- Return Game: De'Anthony Thomas had 2 touchdown returns last year, one on a punt (17.1 ave) and one on a kickoff (24.3 ave), making 4 total in his two years at Oregon. Bralon Addison could see more action on punts if they want to rest Thomas for RB work.
- Turnovers projection: Oregon got lucky with fumble recovery last year and that probably won't happen again.
Coaching/Recruiting 2013 Recruiting Rank: #21 2012 Recruiting Rank: #11
There wasn't much of a dip in recruiting in the transition from Chip Kelly to Mark Helfrich; it helped that the new coach was promoted from within, like Kelly was. It also helps that Oregon has become a football brand name, backed by another very famous brand name. With NIKE money paying the way, Oregon's new $68 million facility contains lockers that reportedly cost $30,000 each and were imported from Germany. Top recruit Thomas Tyner, a running back from Beaverton, is a consensus 5-star and might be DeAnthony Thomas' successor.
2012 Recap
Oregon's offense was once again an unstoppable force for most of 2012. They scored 57 on
Arkansas State, 52 on Washington, 70 on Colorado, 62 on USC, 59 on Cal,
and 48 on Oregon State. The defense wasn't as spectacular or as
consistent, having one stellar game in the 49-0 Arizona shutout but
allowing 51 against USC before closing the year with four strong
performances. They lost one of those games, to Stanford 17-14 in overtime when the offense didn't hold up its end of the bargain, and that loss cost them a shot at the national championship. In the Fiesta Bowl they topped Kansas State convincingly 35-17.
Last year's prediction: We figured the losses on offense would drop Oregon's O from #2 to around #5 but instead it moved up to #1. We ranked the Ducks #8 and called for a 10-2 season, with 11 wins picked game-by-game (losing to USC, not Stanford). Putting Oregon in the top ten seems like a reasonable bet these days.
2013 Outlook
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Oregon 2013 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/31 | Sat | vs. | Nicholls State | 100% | W | |||
| 9/7 | Sat | @ | Virginia | 97% | W | |||
| 9/14 | Sat | vs. | Tennessee | 97% | W | |||
| 9/28 | Sat | vs. | *California | 99% | W | |||
| 10/5 | Sat | @ | *Colorado | 99% | W | |||
| 10/12 | Sat | @ | *Washington | 71% | W | |||
| 10/19 | Sat | vs. | *Washington State | 98% | W | |||
| 10/26 | Sat | vs. | *UCLA | 89% | W | |||
| 11/7 | Thu | @ | *Stanford | 75% | W | |||
| 11/16 | Sat | vs. | *Utah | 98% | W | |||
| 11/23 | Sat | @ | *Arizona | 85% | W | |||
| 11/29 | Fri | vs. | *Oregon State | 81% | W | |||
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Straight up: 12-0 Cume: 11-1 Odds of 12-0: 29%
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In their first five games Oregon faces Nicholls State, California, and Colorado, with intervening games at Virginia and vs. Tennessee that should be only marginally tougher. Their first real test is Washington on the road, and that's quite a step up; it could be called a "trap" game for sure.
If they make it past that the Ducks have Washington State at home, followed by UCLA (again at home); the Bruins game could be another trap as it precede a week off as well as the pivotal Stanford rematch. Utah should be no problem, then Arizona and Oregon State provide two final tests. Oregon should make it to the Pac-12 title game, possibly facing Arizona State. The question is, can the Ducks win all their games and make it to the BCS championship?
We favor them by quite a bit in every game. Still, when added up an 11-1 outcome is most likely; their odds of going 12-0 are about 3 in 10 and then they have to win the Pac-12 title game. And then any other undefeated (or 1-loss) teams have to be considered. But since we rank Oregon #2, we assume they get the nod to face Alabama in the BCS championship. And since we rank Alabama #1, we assume the Ducks lose that game. But they have a decent shot at beating the Tide for the national title, an even better chance of getting the shot in the first place, and even if they don't go to the BCS bowl they will very likely go to a BCS bowl at least.
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