2013 Pre-season Rankings: #6 Oklahoma State Cowboys

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Oklahoma State Cowboys  (Big Twelve #2)

#6	2012 Results	AP #29 USA #29	Strength:#7  Success:#36  Overall:#14
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Beat Purdue 58-14 (Heart of Dallas)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #13 | USA #14 | Lindy's #11 | Athlon #16 | Steele #10
		Record: 10-2	Bowl: Sugar (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Oklahoma State might be good enough to make another push at the BCS championship game.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #3 (raw) #5 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #5 (adjusted)

The passing game will still thrive without Wes Lunt but the ground game could suffer without Joseph Randle.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #7 (raw) #10 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #12
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #6 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #19

Oklahoma State somehow made a three-headed monster at quarterback work. Clint Chelf (1,588 yards, 15 TDs, 6 int), J.W. Walsh (1,564 yards, 13: 3) and Wes Lunt (1,108, 6:7) all had their moment in the spotlight. Lunt started the year but transferred to Illinois in the spring when it became clear he'd lost momentum. Chelf, who stuck with the team when he was passed over last year, is now the favorite for the starting job, though Mike Gundy says he'll play both QBs in the opener. Seven of the top nine receivers return including Josh Stewart (1,210 yards, 7 TDs), Blake Jackson (598 yards), and Charlie Moore (542, 6 TDs). QB Protection was excellent last year and should remain strong. Lunt would have provided good insurance against bad luck w/QB injuries—which occurred last year and could again—but if Chelf and Walsh play as well as they did last year the passing game will be even more productive.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #21 (raw) #18 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #39 (adj.)

Joseph Randle (1,417 yards, 14 TDs) departs and Jeremy Smith (371 yards, 8 TDs) is expected to start in his place. Four other players topped 100 yards and all four are back, including QBs Walsh (290, 7 TDs) and Chelf (162) (Lunt had negative yardage). The offensive line returns starters Parker Graham and Daniel Koenig, while Brandon Webb started the last part of the season. The ground game looks weaker without Randle but there's enough talent to keep the offense reasonably balanced.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #20    Pass Defense  per-game: #102   Per-attempt: #21
Defense 7 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #64 (raw) #38 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #29	'12 picks: #56
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #15 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #24	'13 picks: #27

OK State's defensive line returns two starters including Calvin Barnett (7 tackles for loss), and two return at linebacker as well though they lose co-#1 tackler Alex Elkins (75 tackles). The secondary is in good shape with three senior starters back including Daytawion Lowe (co-#1 w/75 tackles) and Justin Gilbert (9 pass breakups). They also get ex-Kansas starter Tyler Patmon as a grad transfer. Overall the D looks like a top 25 unit.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  The departure of punter/kicker Quinn Sharp (28 of 34 FG, 46.3 punting average) is one of the worst losses on the team. Michael Reichenstein might have an edge over true freshman Ben Grogan at punter, while Grogan will compete with Kip Smith and Bobby Stonebraker for the placekicking job.
• Return Game:  Justin Gilbert and Desmond Roland both had kickoff return touchdowns last year, with Gilbert averaging 25.8 per return (Roland had just two returns). Charlie Moore had a 7.2 average on punts. All three are back.
• Turnovers projection:  The defense had just 11 interceptions last year and that should increase markedly though they won't approach 2011's total of 24. Wes Lunt was the most interception-prone of the QBs last year so the remaining duo should reduce last year's combined 16.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #32          2012 Recruiting Rank: #19
Oklahoma State is approaching the big time in college football without recruiting like it. While Big Twelve powers like Texas and Oklahoma (and nearly all of the SEC) routinely bring in top ten classes, these borderline-top 25 classes are more OK State's style. This year's group ranks in the top half of the Big Twelve, with consensus blue chip receivers Marcell Ateman and RaShaad Samples, both from Texas.

2012 Recap
Oklahoma State kicked things off with a bang: 84-0 against 1-10 FCS team Savannah State. Proving that this meant absolutely nothing, they went from a shutout on defense to a 59-38 loss at Arizona. They turned around again and blasted solid UL-Lafayette 65-24, and went into the Texas showdown 2-1. The Longhorns beat them narrowly in a controversial 41-36 finish and at 2-2 most people wrote them off. The narrow (20-14) Kansas win didn't help their cause, but they won four of their next five, understandably losing to Kansas State (44-30) and beating four bowl teams to sit at 7-3 with two games left. The Oklahoma game—a 51-48 overtime loss on the road—probably took the stuffing out of them a bit going into Baylor, which was a 41-34 loss. They made a big comeback by blasting Purdue 58-14 in the bowl game to end the season on a good note.

Last year's prediction: We ranked the Cowboys #10, and in terms of Strength that wasn't far off. Our cumulative projection called for a 9-3 year and losing three close games didn't help them reach that. Some sub-predictions were interesting: the Cowboys had the #1 offense in 2011 and we projected it to fall to #9 (it fell to #5); we thought their #3 passing game might fall to #31 without Weeden and Blackmon but it only fell to #10.

2013 Outlook

Oklahoma State 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	N	Mississippi State	85%	W
9/7	Sat	@	Texas-San Antonio	97%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Lamar	100%	W
9/28	Sat	@	*West Virginia	91%	W
10/5	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	84%	W
10/19	Sat	vs.	*TCU	79%	W
10/26	Sat	@	*Iowa State	85%	W
11/2	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	86%	W
11/9	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	99%	W
11/16	Sat	@	*Texas	36%	L
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	84%	W
12/7	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	77%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 8%

If Oklahoma State is improved this year—and consistent in their performances—they shouldn't have much trouble with the majority of their schedule, as we make them a pretty strong favorite in every game except for one: Texas.

The Pokes open against Mississippi State in Houston and have to win that one to be taken seriously as a top team. UTSA and Lamar should be gimmes, too. West Virginia on the road and Kansas State at home should be solid wins, too, as both of those teams shouldn't be nearly as good as last year. TCU is going to be better in 2013 but the Cowboys get the Horned Frogs at home. Iowa State and Texas Tech are both on the road but aren't expected to be in the top half of the conference, and Kansas at home is another near-gimme.

Then Oklahoma State travels to Texas and it's probably a loss, but the odds aren't prohibitive. Baylor and Oklahoma are at home this year and that makes the Cowboys favorites in both. Apart from the Texas game, inconsistency could also derail Oklahoma State this year; any slipup or complacency and any of those high-win-percentage games could be an upset. It's also possible that OK State isn't good enough to run through their schedule like that. We pick them 11-1 game-by-game while the cumulative odds show a probably more reasonable 10-2, and a nearly 10% chance to go undefeated.

We rank Oklahoma State the #2 team in the Big Twelve and well inside the top ten nationally so by rights that should mean a BCS Bowl berth. Things never go to plan with the BCS but in our scenario they end up in the Sugar Bowl against former Big Twelve conference-mate Texas A&M.

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