2013 Pre-season Rankings: #21 Oklahoma Sooners

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Oklahoma Sooners  (Big Twelve #3)

#21	2012 Results	AP #15 USA #15	Strength:#8  Success:#15  Overall:#11
		Record: 10-3	Bowl: Lost to Texas A&M 41-13 (Cotton)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #16 | USA #16 | Lindy's #15 | Athlon #17 | Steele #15
		Record: 8-4	Bowl: Cotton (Eligibility odds: 94%)

You know it's a down year for Sooner football when everyone picks them outside the top ten.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #17 (raw) #8 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #16 (adjusted)

The Landry Jones era is over, is the Belldozer era about to start? Edit: Apparently not, as Bob Stoops named Trevor Knight the starting quarterback.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #5 (raw) #6 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #5
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #31 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #4

Landry Jones (4,267 yards, 30 TDs, 11 int) had his critics but he finished his career with a great season and ended up Oklahoma's all-time leading passer with nearly double the yardage of #2 Sam Bradford. Now the question is, who will take over? If fans had their way it would be Blake Bell (107 yards last year) but Bob Stoops isn't promising anything as redshirt freshman Trevor Knight is still in strong contention. The Sooners' two top receivers—Kenny Stills (959 yards, 11 TDs) and Justin Brown (879 yards, 5 TDs)—are gone, but Jalen Saunders (829 yards in 8 games) and Sterling Shepard (621) are back along with 4 other players who had 100+ yards. They also get Jaz Reynolds (755 yards in 2011) back. Whoever starts will have great protection (15 sacks allowed vs. 571 attempts) but matching the output of a player who averaged 4,000 yards over 4 years is not expected.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #61 (raw) #55 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #18 (adj.)

Damien Williams (946 yards, 11 TDs) and Brennan Clay (555 yards, 6 TDs) led a fairly pedestrian Sooner running game but it should get a boost this year. Three other players had over 150 yards and two are back including QB Blake Bell (201 yards, 11 TDs) who was used in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Roy Finch had just 62 yards but had 605 in '11. The offensive line returns four starters and might get another one back later. Seniors Gabe Ikard and Bronson Irwin are joined by juniors Adam Shead and Daryl Williams. Troy Evans was a full-time starter in 2011 and tore his ACL twice but could be back late in the season. With a strong line, a bevy of quality backs, and a running quarterback at the helm or at the very least playing a lot more, ground production should jump.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #71    Pass Defense  per-game: #5   Per-attempt: #7
Defense 4 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #51 (raw) #22 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #58	'12 picks: #35
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #43 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #63	'13 picks: #68

It's good to have a strong pass defense in the Big Twelve but last year the Sooners found out they had a surprisingly vulnerable rushing defense, allowing Tavon Austin to rush for 344 yards. Might things be even worse this year? Three starters are gone from the 4-2-5 defensive line, with Chuka Ndulue (5 sacks) insuring that the pass rush doesn't weaken too much. Corey Nelson returns at linebacker, and the secondary returns two starters including Aaron Colvin (11 pass breakups). But the Sooners lose #1 tackler Tony Jefferson (119 tackles) and Javon Harris (6 interceptions) and will be weaker against the pass too.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Mike Hunnicutt (17 of 21 field goals) is back while punter Tress Way (44.2 average) departs. Junior Jed Barnett will take over.
• Return Game:  Roy Finch averaged 31 yards per kickoff return with one touchdown and Brennan Clay averaged 25.4 yards himself; both are back. Main punt returner Justin Brown (13.6 average, 1 TD) is gone but Jalen Saunders had a TD return in just 5 attempts last year.
• Turnovers projection:  Between the new QB(s) probably throwing more picks than Landry and the defense probably not matching last year's 13, turnovers are a negative this year compared to last.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #15          2012 Recruiting Rank: #10
Oklahoma fans have been getting impatient with Bob Stoops for a long time now. Where's our national title? And why all the big losses in big games? (Last year's Cotton Bowl was yet another example). Stoops is not close to being on the hot seat like Mack Brown at Texas—who had an actual losing season—but the Sooners haven't been living up to expectations for a while. Fans may be even more turned off if Blake Bell isn't named starting quarterback. But they aren't out for his head—yet. This year's recruiting class is the best in the Big Twelve and Stoops' contract was renewed until 2020, so he's going to be around a while whether he wins the big ones or not.

2012 Recap
High expectations once again were not met as Oklahoma went 10-3. They had their traditional lackluster opening game—it was odd seeing them celebrate so hard after a late touchdown against UTEP as they won 24-7—and the 69-point offensive performance against Florida A&M didn't mean much. So when they lost to Kansas State 24-19 at home, it was unclear what the future held for the Sooners.They responded well with their three best games of the season, beating Texas Tech 41-20, Texas 63-21, and Kansas 52-7. So the Sooners were again favored when they hosted Notre Dame, who simply outplayed them 30-13. From there, Oklahoma played well as they won five straight but the defense had its struggles, particularly while allowing 49 to West Virginia and 48 to Oklahoma State, games they won by 1 point and 3 in overtime. The Baylor and TCU wins were a bit shaky, too, far removed from their dominant wins over the Red Raiders and Longhorns. They were taken apart by Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl, another big game bust for the Boomers.

Last year's prediction: The Sooners looked good to us and almost claimed our top spot, but settled for #3. They weren't quite the debacle that USC was but they didn't live up to the ranking. Game-by-game we favored them in all 12, but the cumulative estimate was split between 11-1 and 10-2, and they ended up the latter. So in some ways their year was well within reasonable expectations, and they finished #8 in Strength.

2013 Outlook

Oklahoma 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Monroe	83%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	*West Virginia	92%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Tulsa	87%	W
9/28	Sat	@	Notre Dame	42%	L
10/5	Sat	vs.	*TCU	60%	W
10/12	Sat	N	*Texas	25%	L
10/19	Sat	@	*Kansas	88%	W
10/26	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	83%	W
11/9	Sat	@	*Baylor	52%	W
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	83%	W
11/23	Sat	@	*Kansas State	52%	W
12/7	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	23%	L
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 94%

As usual Oklahoma is expected to win the majority of their games, just not all of them this time around. Notre Dame on the road looks like a loss after last year's 30-13 home loss. Texas in Dallas also looks that way if the Longhorns are as good as we think. And other major rival Oklahoma State on the road is a tough sell, too. With this schedule, 2013 would be a good year to exceed expectations because it would be hard to keep even a 1-loss Oklahoma team out of the national title picture.

But the cumulative estimate gives the Sooners just an 8-4 record as some of their game-by-game wins are questionable. Not Louisiana-Monroe, West Virginia, or Tulsa, though those are all tough teams and Oklahoma's home opener is often competitive for some reason. TCU at home is probably a win though not guaranteed, and later games at Baylor and Kansas State are essentially tossups but we have them in the W column right now. Kansas, Texas Tech, and Iowa State shouldn't be a major concern, but Oklahoma has a habit of giving away an upset here and there.

If Oklahoma ends up #3 in the Big Twelve and the conference has two BCS reps they'll be going back to the Cotton Bowl to face probably the #5 SEC team, which could mean Florida.

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