2013 Pre-season Rankings: #7 Ohio State Buckeyes

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Ohio State Buckeyes  (Big Ten #1; Leaders #1)

#7	2012 Results	AP #3 USA NE	Strength:#21  Success:#4  Overall:#12
		Record: 12-0	Bowl: None (ineligible last year)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #2 | USA #2 | Lindy's #2 | Athlon #2 | Steele #2
		Record: 10-2	Bowl: Rose (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

We believe Ohio State was overrated last year as they survived numerous close calls against an easy schedule. This year, however, they'll be as good as people thought they were last season, but we still don't agree with the unanimous #2 designation. Since they face a relatively easy slate again, the Buckeyes have a solid chance to repeat at 12-0.

Offense 9 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #20 (raw) #19 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #7 (adjusted)

Drastic improvement in the Buckeye offense should drive their gains as a team this year as Braxton Miller gets in the thick of the Heisman race.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #106 (raw) #102 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #101
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #79 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #86

Ohio State was still a bad passing team in 2012. They ranked #113 in 2011 and we projected a modest improvement to #85 and they didn't even get there. So anyone thinking Ohio State is suddenly going to have a strong dual-threat attack should reconsider. Braxton Miller (2,039 yards, 15 TDs, 6 int) improved from 54% to 58% in accuracy and he should step it up again as almost all of last year's receivers are back. The clear top two are Corey Brown (669 yards) and Devin Smith (618, 6 TDs), with Brown having twice as many catches and Smith a 20.6 per-catch average. The line gave up 29 sacks which is terrible for such a low-volume passing attack but far better than 2011's 46, and they will move toward correcting it further as four starters return. We project another incremental improvement and this time they should make it all the way there.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #10 (raw) #13 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #6 (adj.)

This is where the action is in Ohio State football and where Braxton Miller really makes his impact. Miller led the team with 1,271 yards (13 TDs) and that's after subtracting 174 sack yards. Top RB Carlos Hyde (970 yards, 16 TDs) led the more traditional running game, and three others had over 100 yards and they all return. The offensive line returns four starters, all of them seniors: Jack Mewhort, Corey Linsley, Andrew Norwell, and Marcus Hall. Hyde will miss the first three games and Rod Smith (215) the first one due to suspensions for off-field activities but the ground game will be top ten level when everyone is present.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #17    Pass Defense  per-game: #71   Per-attempt: #29
Defense 4 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #32 (raw) #35 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #46	'12 picks: #41
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #39 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #58	'13 picks: #10

OSU's defense wasn't great last year and with just four starters back it doesn't look like it will be in 2013; we project no real improvement except a pickup in interceptions. The defensive line is a huge question mark as all four starters are gone including sacks leader John Simon (9). At linebacker one starter returns, top tackler Ryan Shazier (115 tackles, 5 sacks, 12 tackles for loss, 11 pass breakups) who should be a leading defensive player of the year candidate. That's just one starter back in the front seven, but Ohio State plays a lot of 4-2-5 and three starters return to the secondary: Christian Bryant (12 pass breakups), Bradley Roby (17 pass breakups), and C.J. Barnett. The team had 14 interceptions which is low for so many breakups and this year that total should climb. Although they return just 4 starters those are the team's 4 top tacklers and given OSU's recruiting level the defense shouldn't slip much, provided the replacement d-line is as competent in practice as they are on paper.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Drew Basil (8 of 11 FG) is back and he will also take over for departing punter Ben Buchanan (41.0 average).
• Return Game:  Lots of bodies available here. Rod Smith (23.3 average) and Devin Smith (18.4) will return kickoffs again, and Jordan Hall is available as Smith is out at least one game. Corey Brown averaged 12.3 yards per punt return with 2 touchdowns; Chris Fields had a TD return in 2011.
• Turnovers projection:  Other than the defense getting more interceptions (see Defense), nothing much here.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #7          2012 Recruiting Rank: #2
Ohio State's recruiting machine keeps reporting good results, and the Buckeyes are one of a handful of teams with consecutive top-ten classes. We rank this year's group #2 in the Big Ten behind Michigan; it's extra-superstar recruits are LB Mike Mitchell of Plano, TX and DB Vonn Bell of Rossville, GA. Urban Meyer's first season couldn't have been more successful than the 12-0 they achieved as probation didn't allow for participation in the Big Ten title game or bowl game; the players should be plenty hungry as a result.

2012 Recap 
How good was Ohio State last year? It's worth knowing where the team is coming from before this season. Though they finished #3 in the AP poll and #4 in our Success rankings, they were just #21 in Strength, suggesting they got quite lucky. And their game results bear that out, with several very close wins over questionable opposition. They beat Miami (Ohio) 56-10 and 10-4 Central Florida 31-16, both pretty good wins. They had trouble with 3-9 Cal, winning 35-28 in the end, and beating UAB just 29-15 is not impressive. Still, they were 4-0, and 5-0 once they topped Michigan State 17-16. The 63-38 Nebraska win might have been their best game, but they followed it with a 52-49 win over 4-8 Indiana and then needed overtime to beat Purdue 29-22. The last four games were an improvement as they beat Penn State 35-23 and Illinois 52-22, but they still needed overtime to beat Wisconsin and edged Michigan 26-21. In all that's half their games won by a touchdown or less including two overtime games, and three of those close games involved teams with losing records. Strengthwise their 2012 season isn't much better than 1998 Tulane as far as undefeated teams go.

Last year's prediction: We looked for a big improvement in the Buckeyes, up to #18 in the nation. That part was pretty much on target. The projection for their record was 8-4, or 9-3 game-by-game; we had them losing to Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Michigan. They won those games by 1 point, in overtime, and by 5 points. There's a fine line between 9-3 and 12-0.

2013 Outlook

Ohio State 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Buffalo	95%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	San Diego State	90%	W
9/14	Sat	@	California	94%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Florida A&M	100%	W
9/28	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	80%	W
10/5	Sat	@	*Northwestern	65%	W
10/19	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	96%	W
10/26	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	93%	W
11/2	Sat	@	*Purdue	92%	W
11/16	Sat	@	*Illinois	98%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	91%	W
11/30	Sat	@	*Michigan	56%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 17%

Can the Buckeyes repeat their 12-0 feat of last season? When you consider how much better they should be, it seems reasonable. They did it last year, why not this year with a better team?

And we do favor them in every single game. The non-conference opponents should be little more than cannon fodder, but they go from Florida A&M to Wisconsin in a week's time. An even harder contest follows as the face Northwestern on the road, and if there's a "trap" game on the schedule this is it. The next five opponents don't have much of a chance, though in cumulative terms we give a 27% chance of losing to one of Iowa, Penn State, Purdue, Illinois, or Indiana. The Michigan road game is the toughest on their schedule from a pre-season vantage point; the Buckeyes are a narrow favorite.

The cumulative odds come up with a win expectation of just under 10.5, a split between 10-2 and 11-1. But 11-1 is the most likely result and they have a > 50% chance of reaching 11 or 12 wins. They have about a 1 in 6 chance of going 12-0 again. If they have last year's luck in close games it's a foregone conclusion; if they get the reverse luck, however, they'll have at least 2 losses.

Ohio State should be in the Big Ten title game whether they beat Michigan or not, and they'd probably play Michigan again in either case. Since we only rank them #7 we don't project them into the national title game; instead they go to the Rose Bowl to face Pac-12 #2 Arizona State.

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