2013 Pre-season Rankings: #22 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Notre Dame Fighting Irish  (Independent #1)

#22	2012 Results	AP #4 USA #3	Strength:#9  Success:#3  Overall:#5
		Record: 12-1	Bowl: Lost to Alabama 42-14 (BCS championship)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #14 | USA #11 | Lindy's #14 | Athlon #8 | Steele #9
		Record: 8-4	Bowl: Liberty/Compass/??? (Eligibility odds: 98%)

Last year we were the most optimistic about Notre Dame of the sources above, ranking the Irish #14 pre-season as opposed to AP #26; USA #24; Lindy's #33; Athlon #20; and Steele #19. This year we are the most pessimistic of the group by a good 10 spots. If they miss the BCS who knows where they will go bowling.

Offense 4 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #82 (raw) #46 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #83 (adjusted)

Last year's offense looked pretty bad until you corrected for the strength of the defenses they faced. This year's offense might actually be that bad.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #72 (raw) #56 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #35
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #85 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #38

Everett Golson (2,405 yards, 12 TDs, 6 int) finally gave Notre Dame a clear leader at quarterback, and right on cue he mysteriously became ineligible due to an academic violation. So Tommy Rees (436 yards, 2:2 last year, 2,871, 20:14 in 2011) will take over once again. #1 receiver Tyler Eifert (685 yards) is gone, and #2 T.J. Jones (649) and #3 DeVaris Daniels (495) are the only returning players with over 100 receiving yards. Rees runs hot and cold but he will do a good job as a senior; without depth of talent at receiver, however, we see a weaker passing game.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #38 (raw) #23 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #59 (adj.)

Notre Dame loses their two main rushers from last season, Theo Riddick (917 yards, 5 TDs) and Cierre Wood (742 yards). George Atkinson (361, 5) will take over and he should do well as he averaged 7.1 yards per carry last year, but he won't replace both Riddick and Wood. Further, departed QB Golson was #4 with 298 (6 TDs) while Rees contributes negative yardage. The offensive line should be just as strong with Zack Martin, Chris Watt, and Christian Lombard all back, but trading two solid backs for one and a running QB for a pocket passer may transform the strong ground game into an average one.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #10    Pass Defense  per-game: #16   Per-attempt: #13
Defense 7 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #2 (raw) #3 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #16	'12 picks: #18
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #3 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #8	'13 picks: #43

Notre Dame had one of the nation's best defenses last year led by linebacker Manti Te'o (team leader with 113 tackles, 7 interceptions) who finished 2nd in Heisman voting. Unfortunately his great Notre Dame career ended with two debacles: his performance against Alabama and the revelation that his deceased long-distance girlfriend was a hoax perpetrated against him. It's hard to imagine the two weren't related as he knew prior to the national championship game that the embarrassing truth was going to be revealed. In any case, he is the biggest loss on the defense. Prince Shembo (7.5 sacks) returns at linebacker but Danny Spond was recently lost for the year. The defensive line of the 3-4 returns two starters as well including Stephon Tuitt (12 sacks) and the team's pass rush should be even better despite losing Kapron Lewis-Moore (6 sacks). Three starters are back in the secondary including Bennett Jackson (4 interceptions) but their picks totals will probably drop without Te'o. Overall they're a step down without their superstar but still rank in the top five.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Kyle Brindza (23 of 31 field goals last year) is back but punter Ben Turk (40.8 average) is gone. Alex Wulfeck averaged 39.7 at Wake Forest in 2011 and should take over though Brindza is vying for the spot too.
• Return Game:  George Atkinson returns after averaging 20.0 yards on kickoffs (he had 2 TDs in 2011), while Davonte Neal (just 2.2 average on 21 punt returns) transferred. T.J. Jones could take over on punts.
• Turnovers projection:  Rees has been more interception-prone than Golson so there's some concern there, but the bigger difference could be due to the defense overachieving last year on interceptions because of Te'o. Their puny pass breakup stats suggest a lot fewer than last year's 16 picks.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #9          2012 Recruiting Rank: #25
Brian Kelly's fourth class is a big winner, and it could have been better. Defensive lineman Eddie Vanderdoes, one of the nation's top recruits, never went to Notre Dame, opting for UCLA instead (technically, he sort of transferred since Notre Dame held him to his letter of intent). Meanwhile, the 2011 class lost its own top recruit as QB Gunner Kiel transferred to Cincinnati. Despite the big ones getting away Kelly, who has had terrible luck since arriving here, managed to build the program back to national-title caliber last year. And they still have uber-blue chip Jaylon Smith, a linebacker from Fort Wayne, Indiana in this year's top ten class.

2012 Recap
Notre Dame's first 9 opponents ended up eligible for a bowl game (Miami opted out), so while a few of the teams on their schedule ended up having disappointing seasons the Irish definitely had one of the tougher slates out there, with 11 bowl-eligible teams out of 13 games. It wasn't exactly a smooth road to 12-0, however. Purdue gave them real trouble (20-17), as did BYU (17-14), while Stanford (OT) and Pittsburgh (3OT) came about as close to winning as a team can without actually winning. The Irish slogged past Michigan and USC, 13-6 and 22-13. On the other hand, Notre Dame demolished Navy 50-10 and Miami 41-3 and thoroughly beat Michigan State (20-3) in East Lansing and Oklahoma (30-13) in Norman. But for all that luck and great play nothing could help them against Alabama, where they laid an egg and were dominated by the Tide 42-14.

Last year's prediction: As we mentioned, no one had the Irish higher-ranked than we did in the pre-season, but at the same time we ranked many of their opponents higher than them. We picked losses to Michigan, Oklahoma, and USC and projected an 8-4 record.

2013 Outlook

Notre Dame 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Temple	96%	W
9/7	Sat	@	Michigan	42%	L
9/14	Sat	@	Purdue	81%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Michigan State	74%	W
9/28	Sat	vs.	Oklahoma	58%	W
10/5	Sat	N	Arizona State	34%	L
10/19	Sat	vs.	USC	57%	W
10/26	Sat	@	Air Force	97%	W
11/2	Sat	vs.	Navy	97%	W
11/9	Sat	@	Pittsburgh	86%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	BYU	70%	W
11/30	Sat	@	Stanford	38%	L
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 98%

Once again we pick 3 losses for the Irish and project an 8-4 season. This time the schedule isn't quite as hard, or rather, doesn't look as hard from a pre-season vantage point as last year's did. After Temple the Irish face Michigan on the road, which we call a close loss. Purdue, Michigan State, even Oklahoma, all look like wins (latter two are at home which helps). The surprise may be Arizona State, whom we favor over the Irish in Arlington, Texas.

We pick the Irish over USC in South Bend (does Notre Dame have a great home schedule this year or what?) and the armed services shouldn't be a problem. Pitt doesn't look like a tough nut to crack on the road but they gave Notre Dame fits at home, so who knows. BYU is a home game and should be a win; Stanford on the road will probably be a loss. That's 9-3, or 8-4 by the cume numbers, and roughly a 1% chance of repeating at 12-0 (though that's higher than the % chance we gave them of doing that last year).

So the team is down a notch, while the schedule could be about equal to how last year's schedule turned out to be. There are probably 9 bowl teams on this schedule. Speaking of bowl games, if Notre Dame doesn't make the BCS—and we don't think they will—there is a question as to where they would go. It's impossible to predict since there are always open spots and the Irish are in heavy demand, but just by the pairings we think the AAC won't fill their slots so the Compass, Liberty, and Beef O' Brady's would be options by that track. The Irish will find something more lucrative than those options I would think, unless they sink to 6-6 or so.

More Previews • Full coverage of all 125 FBS teams
SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125