SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
| Northwestern Wildcats (Big Ten #3; Legends #2) |
 #25 |
2012 Results |
AP #17 USA #16 | Strength:#29 Success:#21 Overall:#28 |
| Record: 10-3 | Bowl: Beat Mississippi St. 34-20 (Gator) |
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| 2013 Outlook |
Picks: AP #22 | USA #22 | Lindy's #28 | Athlon #24 | Steele #32 |
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| Record: 9-3 | Bowl: Capital One (Eligibility odds: 99%) |
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Northwestern can build on last year's success with an even better team.
| Offense 8 ret. starters |
2012 Scoring Offense: #42 (raw) #27 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #23 (adjusted) |
Kain Colter essentially provides an extra starting quarterback and running back to the team, as well as a backup receiver.
| Passing Game |
2012 Passing Rank: #111 (raw) #104 (adjusted) | 2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #33 |
| 2013 Projected Passing Rank: #90 (adjusted) |
2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #40 |
Trevor Siemian (1,312 yards, 6 TDs, 3 int) is the passer and Kain Colter (872 yards, 8 TDs, 4 int) is the runner; that's not too much of a simplification. Colter was also the #6 receiver with 169 yards (466 in 2011), the 5th of six players back with over 100 receiving yards (Christian Jones was #1 with 412). The offensive line might be a bit weaker but protection wasn't too bad last year. Overall the passing game should be more productive this season.
| Rushing | 2012 Rushing Rank: #19 (raw) #14 (adjusted) | 2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #12 (adj.) |
Venric Mark (1,366 yards, 12 TDs) and QB Kain Colter (894 yards, 12 TDs) led a strong running game and with both back it should be just as good. Brandon Vitabile and Jack Konopka return to the offensive line, but three other starters are lost so the ground game might not make the top ten.
| 2012 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #33 Pass Defense per-game: #101 Per-attempt: #35 | ||
| Defense 7 ret. starters |
'12 Scoring Defense: #29 (raw) #43 (adjusted) | '12 sacks: #41 | '12 picks: #47 |
| '13 Projected Scoring Defense: #34 (adjusted) |
'13 sacks: #36 | '13 picks: #28 | |
Northwestern had an impressive defense last year in contrast to some years where the offense won by getting in shootouts with the opponent. The defensive line has two starters back including sacks king Tyler Scott (9 sacks). At linebacker David Nwabuisi (7.5 tackles for loss) is gone but #1 tackler Damien Proby (112 tackles) returns with Chi Chi Ariguzo (7.5 tackles for loss). The secondary has three starters back including Ibraheim Campbell (12 pass breakups). A bit stronger in every area, the defense should once again pull its weight rather than play 2nd fiddle to the offense.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Both kicker Jeff Budzien (19 of 20 field goals) and punter Brandon Williams (39.9 average) are back as seniors.
- Return Game: Venric Mark had two touchdown returns last year, both on punts where he carried an amazing 18.7 average, barely lower than his kickoff return average of 19.8. He's back to do it again.
- Turnovers projection: Not much difference on the whole, though we see more interceptions on defense.
Coaching/Recruiting 2013 Recruiting Rank: #52 2012 Recruiting Rank: #55
Northwestern is rarely going to have an incredible recruiting class; these last two are about as good as fans can expect. They rank in the lower half of the Big Ten, but not near the bottom. Pat Fitzgerald has taken the Wildcats to an incredible five straight bowl games but last year was the first win (and the team's first since 1948) after many very, very close calls (including two overtime losses). The team's rallying point this year is "5:03", the total amount of time Northwestern trailed, combined, in their three losses last year.
2012 Recap
Northwestern kicked off with narrow wins over two teams that ended up
being pretty decent, 7-5 Syracuse (42-41) and 8-5 Vanderbilt (23-13). Pretty soon they
were 5-0, just like the 2010 and 2008 teams were before their first
loss. They fell to Penn State 39-28, Nebraska by 1 (29-28), and Michigan in overtime (38-31),
with wins over Minnesota and Iowa between, to stand 7-3. They won their
last two games with style: on the road at Michigan State 23-20, and at
home over Illinois 50-14. The big win, though, was in the bowl game, and it was long overdue as they handled Mississippi State 34-20.
Last year's prediction: We ranked Northwestern #79 and projected a 5-7 year, but we knew that was wrong—Northwestern often confounds our expectations—so we laid out a "best-case" scenario whereby the Wildcats went 8-4. Of course Northwestern surpassed that, too, going 9-3 in the regular season.
2013 Outlook
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Northwestern 2013 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/31 | Sat | @ | California | 85% | W | |||
| 9/7 | Sat | vs. | Syracuse | 85% | W | |||
| 9/14 | Sat | vs. | Western Michigan | 95% | W | |||
| 9/21 | Sat | vs. | Maine | 98% | W | |||
| 10/5 | Sat | vs. | *Ohio State | 35% | L | |||
| 10/12 | Sat | @ | *Wisconsin | 42% | L | |||
| 10/19 | Sat | vs. | *Minnesota | 85% | W | |||
| 10/26 | Sat | @ | *Iowa | 76% | W | |||
| 11/2 | Sat | @ | *Nebraska | 58% | W | |||
| 11/16 | Sat | vs. | *Michigan | 49% | L | |||
| 11/23 | Sat | vs. | *Michigan State | 70% | W | |||
| 11/30 | Sat | @ | *Illinois | 93% | W | |||
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Straight up: 9-3 Cume: 9-3 Bowl eligible: 99%
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The Wildcats kick off the year in California, and they should win that game and three more in their home stand: Syracuse, Western Michigan, and Maine each get easier than the last. Then the biggest game of the year in Evanston when Ohio State comes to town. The Wildcats may have a better chance of beating the Buckeyes than anyone this year but it's hard to think the program is ready to pull off that kind of an upset. The trip to Wisconsin looks like their 2nd loss.
Then they should start winning again: Minnesota, Iowa, even Nebraska on the road, before the 2nd big home game: Michigan, and that's a tossup in our book. The 'Cats can beat Michigan State, too, and Illinois ends the season. A 9-3 finish would duplicate last year's result but against a much harder schedule.
Northwestern is an inherently unpredictable team; whether they are good or not they tend to play up to (or down to) their competition. So in a year where we think they'll be good they're probably vulnerable to being upset. But they'll still be able to upset teams, and any upsets they get this year will be big ones. If the Wildcats are the #3 Big Ten team, assuming two BCS bowl teams from the conference, they'll go to the Capital One Bowl and face an SEC team, perhaps Georgia.
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