2013 Pre-season Rankings: #39 Mississippi State Bulldogs

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Mississippi State Bulldogs  (SEC #10; West #5)

#39	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#44  Success:#55  Overall:#45
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Lost to Northwestern 34-20 (Gator)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA #43 | Lindy's #46 | Athlon #41 | Steele #44
		Record: 6-6	Bowl: Independence (Eligibility odds: 64%)

It's looking like another tough year in the SEC for Mississippi State.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #59 (raw) #51 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #42 (adjusted)

Just as Mississippi State was looking like an emerging passing team under Tyler Russell, they might shift gears and become a running team.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #58 (raw) #54 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #40
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #76 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #31

QB Tyler Russell (2,897 yards, 24 TDs, 10 int) is back as a senior, but last year's top four receivers are gone. Chad Bumphis led with 922 yards (12 TDs) and Chris Smith was #2 with 564. That leaves TE Malcolm Johnson (171 yards) the leading returnee; three others also topped 100 yards. Limiting the damage will be the offensive line which should offer solid protection this season, but we think Russell is a longshot to match his 2012 season.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #84 (raw) #71 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #36 (adj.)

The running back corps is the opposite of the receiver corp. Five players topped 100 yards and all five are back led by LaDarius Perkins (1,024 yards, 8 TDs). The offensive line returns four full-time starters from last year: Gabe Jackson, Charles Siddoway, Blaine Clausell, and Dillon Day. The other starter, Tobias Smith, was granted a sixth year and might play or should at least be available in case of depth emergencies. All signs point to a stronger running game in 2013.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #50    Pass Defense  per-game: #48   Per-attempt: #55
Defense 5 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #35 (raw) #29 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #96	'12 picks: #11
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #48 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #89	'13 picks: #45

The Bulldog defensive line has two starters back to the 4-3 including Denico Autry and may make small gains in sacks and rush defense. At linebacker #1 tackler Cameron Lawrence (120 tackles) is gone along with backup Chris Hughes (dismissed) but two starters including #2 tackler Benardrick McKinney (102 tackles) are back. The secondary is the weak spot as three starters are gone including Johnthan Banks (4 int) and Darius Slay (5 int), and we see the interception totals (19 last year) plunging. The defense will probably give up quite a few more points this season.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Devon Bell (14 of 21 FG) and Baker Swedenburg (41.1 yd punting average) are both back.
• Return Game:  Jameon Lewis had a touchdown return on a kickoff and averaged 25.9 yards. Johnthan Banks averaged 8.8 on punts and he departs. Lewis and LaDarius Perkins (20.3 on kickoffs) will be the main return men this year.
• Turnovers projection:  Mississippi State was very lucky on fumbles last season at +7; that probably won't happen this year, nor will the defense match last year's 19 picks as they lose last year's interception leader (Slay), their career interception leader (Banks), about 60% of their total pass defenses (breakups + picks).

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #35          2012 Recruiting Rank: #14
Dan Mullen's 2013 class isn't close to his 2012 class, but you can't reach for the stars every year. In the SEC, if you're outside the top 25 nationally you will rank in the lower half of the conference. They also lost blue chip QB Cord Sandberg who decided to play baseball instead. But they still have Chris Jones of Houston, one of the highest-rated defensive linemen in the country.

2012 Recap
Mississippi State also started the year 5-0, in fact they went 7-0. But they didn't beat a team that finished with a winning record until they topped Middle Tennessee State 45-3. That was their only impressive win, however, and once they faced the gauntlet of top ten teams that followed—Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU—they were 7-3 and beaten down by a total score of 113-37. The Bulldogs rebounded big over Arkansas, but facing rival Ole Miss they fell 41-24 to finish 8-4. They lost to Northwestern in the Gator Bowl 34-20.

Last year's prediction: We ranked the Bulldogs #40 last year and that was pretty accurate (they finished #44 in Strength). Our projection was for a 7-5 season, and the year went pretty much as we expected, with a lot of wins up front followed by a losing streak. We had the Tennessee, Arkansas, and Mississippi picks wrong.

2013 Outlook

Mississippi State 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	N	Oklahoma State	15%	L
9/7	Sat	vs.	Alcorn State	100%	W
9/14	Sat	@	*Auburn	57%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Troy	97%	W
10/5	Sat	vs.	*LSU	37%	L
10/12	Sat	vs.	Bowling Green	80%	W
10/26	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	76%	W
11/2	Sat	@	*South Carolina	20%	L
11/9	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	6%	L
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	6%	L
11/23	Sat	@	*Arkansas	73%	W
11/28	Thu	vs.	*Mississippi	30%	L
Straight up: 6-6  Cume: 6-6  Bowl eligible: 64%

This year looks 6-6 unless the Bulldogs are considerably better than we think. Simply because we can see six losses pretty clearly.

First, Oklahoma State in Houston. Maybe the Cowboys won't be as good; it's also the first game. But that looks like a loss. LSU at home is a potential upset win, but don't count on it. Then late in the year another guantlet of tough teams (I guess it's gantlet really, but that sounds stupid): South Carolina, Texas A&M, and Alabama, just like last year. And Ole Miss at home, a loss? It could happen.

The wins: Alcorn State (4-7 FCS last year) is awful. Troy, Bowling Green, Kentucky, and Arkansas have to be wins. Then everything rests on the early game at Auburn. We have the Bulldogs winning that one so we give them a 6-6 record and a bowl game, which, as the #10 SEC team, would be the Independence Bowl (i.e., the AdvoCare V100 Bowl, bleh) vs. the #7 ACC team which could be Boston College.

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Comments

[Mike]

Bully, Bellard, Bone, Bowl.