SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
| Mississippi Rebels (SEC #4; West #3) |
 #11 |
2012 Results |
AP NR USA NR | Strength:#27 Success:#61 Overall:#33 |
| Record: 7-6 | Bowl: Beat Pitt 38-17 (Compass) |
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| 2013 Outlook |
Picks: AP #36 | USA #33 | Lindy's #29 | Athlon #33 | Steele #16 |
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| Record: 8-4 | Bowl: Outback (Eligibility odds: 98%) |
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If not for Phil Steele's ranking, ours would be another surprise team pick. The oddsmakers' early lines, however, tend to concur with an optimistic assessment of the Rebels.
| Offense 8 ret. starters |
2012 Scoring Offense: #46 (raw) #23 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #9 (adjusted) |
Already a top 25 offense (despite their #46 raw scoring rank), the Ole Miss O could be in the top ten this season.
| Passing Game |
2012 Passing Rank: #49 (raw) #43 (adjusted) | 2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #89 |
| 2013 Projected Passing Rank: #20 (adjusted) |
2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #70 |
Quarterback Bo Wallace (2,994 yards, 22 TDs, 17 int) is back as are five of his top six receivers including the top three, Donte Moncrief (979 yards, 10 TDs), Vince Sanders (504 yards), and Ja-Mes Logan (490). The O-line returns four starters so protection should be better than last year's 34 sacks. Wallace should have a very productive year and if he cuts down on the picks that's icing on the cake.
| Rushing | 2012 Rushing Rank: #51 (raw) #47 (adjusted) | 2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #27 (adj.) |
Ole Miss had six players who netted over 100 yards and five of them are back. Jeff Scott led with 846 yards (6 TDs) while QB Bo Wallace was #2 with 390 (8 TDs). Backup QB Barry Brunetti was #4 with 277. WR/RB/QB Randall Mackey (325) is the only loss. The offensive line loses one starter, returning seniors Evan Swindall, Pierce Burton, and Emmanuel McCray and junior Aaron Morris. It looks like we don't quite put the running game in the top 25 to match the passing game, but it's close.
| 2012 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #22 Pass Defense per-game: #57 Per-attempt: #37 | ||
| Defense 8 ret. starters |
'12 Scoring Defense: #61 (raw) #47 (adjusted) | '12 sacks: #17 | '12 picks: #24 |
| '13 Projected Scoring Defense: #26 (adjusted) |
'13 sacks: #19 | '13 picks: #15 | |
Mississippi's pass rush should stay about the same—very high level—despite losing Uriah Grant (5 sacks) as C.J. Johnson (6.5 sacks) returns. They also have Issac Gross (7.5 tackles for loss) so the rushing defense should be good again. At linebacker in the 4-2-5 #1 tackler Denzel Nkemdiche (82 tackles) is back with #3 Mike Marry (8 tackles for loss). And returning to the secondary are three of the team's top five tacklers including #2 Cody Prewitt. That's all six of the top six tacklers back. The 2013 Ole Miss defense might be close to top 25 quality.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Neither kicker Bryson Rose (18 of 28 field goals last year) or punter Jim Broadway (41.1 average) is back. Seniors Andrew Ritter and Tyler Campbell are the replacements; both redshirted last year. Campbell averaged 43.6 in 2011 and led the nation in 2010 at 46.4. Ritter has performed only kickoffs in college play.
- Return Game: Jaylen Walton (24.7 average on kickoffs with 1 touchdown return) and Korvic Neat (5.1 ave on punt returns) are both back.
- Turnovers projection: QB Bo Wallace should improve on last year's 17 picks, but it's impossible to tell how much (we assume just a few), and that might be offset by less good luck on fumble recoveries.
Coaching/Recruiting 2013 Recruiting Rank: #10 2012 Recruiting Rank: #59
If there were ever a stark example of the coaching-transition-year recruiting blues, Mississippi in 2012 was it, as a #16 class in 2011 (Houston Nutt's last class) was followed by Hugh Freeze's #59 class. There's normally a big bounce-back in a coach's 2nd year and here is Freeze's bounce, a borderline top ten class. Amazingly it ranks #6 in the SEC. They got a trio of the highest-rated recruits at defensive end, offensive tackle, and wide receivers. DE Robert Nkemdiche from Georgia is Ole Miss star Denzel's brother. OT Laremy Tunsil from Florida is ranked #1 by some at his position. And WR Laquon Treadwell comes from Illinois. If Freeze can continue getting players of this caliber from other states Ole Miss football is in for a renaissance.
2012 Recap
Mississippi kicked off the season with a couple of decent wins but got
destroyed by Texas 66-31. They shut out Tulane 39-0 to start 3-1 with two of the best teams in the country coming up. They did
better against Alabama and Texas A&M than most teams did, losing
only by 19 on the road to the Tide and by 3 points to the Aggies. The Rebels took advantage of the terrible seasons that Auburn and Arkansas
were having to notch two more wins, and at 5-3 only needed one more win
for bowl eligibility. They'd have to wait, however, as Georgia thrashed
them 37-10, Vanderbilt beat them by a point, and LSU beat them on a
last-minute touchdown 41-35. But they beat rival Mississippi State
with style, 41-24. In the Compass Bowl they beat Pitt 38-17 and hope to carry that momentum into 2013.
Last year's prediction: We forecast a big improvement from 2011 when they ranked #94 and were 2-10; we put the Rebels 20 positions higher at #74. In the SEC though that doesn't amount to much; the only wins we thought they'd get were Central Arkansas, UTEP, and Tulane. We were right on those, but Ole Miss got three more wins plus a bowl win and finished #27 in Strength, a huge 67-position leap.
2013 Outlook
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Mississippi 2013 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/31 | Sat | @ | *Vanderbilt | 63% | W | |||
| 9/7 | Sat | vs. | SE Missouri State | 100% | W | |||
| 9/14 | Sat | @ | Texas | 25% | L | |||
| 9/28 | Sat | @ | *Alabama | 11% | L | |||
| 10/5 | Sat | @ | *Auburn | 79% | W | |||
| 10/12 | Sat | vs. | *Texas A&M | 34% | L | |||
| 10/19 | Sat | vs. | *LSU | 65% | W | |||
| 10/26 | Sat | vs. | Idaho | 99% | W | |||
| 11/9 | Sat | vs. | *Arkansas | 96% | W | |||
| 11/16 | Sat | vs. | Troy | 99% | W | |||
| 11/23 | Sat | vs. | *Missouri | 79% | W | |||
| 11/28 | Thu | @ | *Mississippi State | 70% | W | |||
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Straight up: 9-3 Cume: 8-4 Bowl eligible: 98%
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Four of Mississippi's first five games are road games, and if they're 3-2 they should be satisfied. The opener at Vanderbilt will be a good litmus test to tell us whether the Rebels are as good as we think they'll be. The next three games probably reveal very little and we expect a 1-2 mark in those. Auburn on the road is another good test but one Ole Miss should pass easily.
Then they embark on an unusual 6-game home stand and they should win all but the first game of that (Texas A&M). We take the Rebels over LSU, even, and after that they coast with Idaho, Arkansas, and Troy before Missouri provides another test. Arkansas and Troy are wild cards, too, depending on how much they bounce back this year. But overall it should be a good home series. The bad thing is they might get so used to playing at home that they rival game at Mississippi State could be harder than it should be, but the Rebels should have momentum then and win that one, too.
Playing Texas and Alabama back-to-back gives the Rebels a chance to establish themselves as one of the top teams in the nation, and winning even one would cause quit a stir. But both games are on the road so we give them little hope. It looks like a pretty clear 9-3 season but the close wins make it add up to 8-4. As the #4-rated team in the SEC we put the Rebels in the Outback Bowl vs. the Big Ten #4 team, Wisconsin.
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