SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
| Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten #2; Legends #1) |
 #15 |
2012 Results |
AP #24 USA #26 | Strength:#22 Success:#32 Overall:#24 |
| Record: 8-5 | Bowl: Lost to South Carolina 33-28 (Outback) |
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| 2013 Outlook |
Picks: AP #17 | USA #17 | Lindy's #16 | Athlon #14 | Steele #21 |
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| Record: 9-3 | Bowl: Orange (Eligibility odds: 99%) |
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Michigan will look like a very different team as the transition from a Rich Rodriguez offense to a Brady Hoke offense is completed.
| Offense 5 ret. starters |
2012 Scoring Offense: #60 (raw) #30 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #41 (adjusted) |
The offense loses quite a few top players, chief among them Denard Robinson.
| Passing Game |
2012 Passing Rank: #98 (raw) #79 (adjusted) | 2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #34 |
| 2013 Projected Passing Rank: #70 (adjusted) |
2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #49 |
The Denard Robinson era is over; as a passing quarterback he gets mixed reviews. He led last year with 1,319 yards, and had 9 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. When he got injured and was unable to throw effectively, the Devin Gardner era begin; Gardner threw for 1,219 yards, 11 TDs, and 5 interceptions. In between the two was the best-forgotten Russell Bellomy era (4 of 21, 0 TDs, 4 int). Gardner will have #1 receiver Jeremy Gallon (829 yards) back but not #2 Roy Roundtree (580 yards). Three others had 200+ receiving yards and all are back. Protection might be a problem, however, as only two starters return to the offensive line and Gardner was sacked 11 times vs. just 4 for Robinson; if Gardner is hurt the dropoff will be great. Assuming he stays healthy Gardner should overcome all of this and raise production but it might not be a whole lot more than the two combined for last year; he should, however, dramatically lower the amount of interceptions (18 last year) thrown by the QB stable.
| Rushing | 2012 Rushing Rank: #41 (raw) #27 (adjusted) | 2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #85 (adj.) |
Denard Robinson had shortcomings as a passer but none as a runner. Last year he had 1,266 yards and 7 touchdowns, and replacing that yardage won't be easy. Devin Gardner (101 yards, 7 TDs) can run, too, but not like Robinson (4.1 average vs. 7.6 average, before sack yardage removed). Fitzgerald Toussaint (514, 5 TDs) led the running backs and he returns as does Thomas Rawls (242), but there's a chance that true freshman Derrick Green could be the starter when all is said and done. The offensive line loses three starters including Patrick Omameh. All-American Taylor Lewan is back with Michael Schofield. but the line could be weaker, and without Robinson the Michigan running game is going through a process of redefining itself, and the Wolverines will be throwing the ball more this year.
| 2012 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #21 Pass Defense per-game: #35 Per-attempt: #52 | ||
| Defense 5.5 ret. starters |
'12 Scoring Defense: #21 (raw) #26 (adjusted) | '12 sacks: #85 | '12 picks: #105 |
| '13 Projected Scoring Defense: #18 (adjusted) |
'13 sacks: #71 | '13 picks: #108 | |
The state of the Michigan defense depends a lot on linebacker Jake Ryan (#1 w/88 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss). Ryan is rehabbing a torn ACL and will miss about 6 games, give or take. The corps lose #2 tackler Kenny Demers but Desmond Morgan is back and Brennen Beyer moves in from the D-line; 2010 starter Cam Gordon is back in the starting lineup, too. The defensive line loses three starters (counting Beyer) but Quinton Washington returns. The secondary loses two starters but Thomas Gordon is back and Blake Countess returns from injury. The Michigan defense ranked #6 in raw passing yards allowed per game, but they faced very weak passing teams; when corrected they ranked 35th, and #52 on a per-play corrected basis. Our upgraded ranking depends on Ryan's healthy return, and right now indications are good.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Brendan Gibbons (16 of 18 FG) is back and so is punter Will Hagerup (45.0 average last year). Hagerup, however, is not playing this season after being suspended for violating team rules. Backup Matt Wile (35.9 average on 12 punts) takes over and his low average is due to his use as pooch punter (9 of 12 downed inside the 20).
- Return Game: Dennis Norfleet averaged 23.6 yards per kickoff return and Jeremy Gallon 5.5 per punt return; both are back.
- Turnovers projection: Michigan's offense was hurt due to interceptions by Robinson (9) and Bellomy (4). Gardner threw just 5. It might be mean to say that Bellomy's ACL tear was a boon to the team, but there's no way he throws any picks this year.
Coaching/Recruiting 2013 Recruiting Rank: #4 2012 Recruiting Rank: #5
Brady's Hoke's 2013 class is just as good as his 2012 class, if not better. Between these two classes Michigan has added more good players than almost any team in the country. The Wolverines signed the nation's best running back, Derrick Green, and he might start this year. We rank the class #1 in the Big Ten, just ahead of Ohio State's group. Now, with Denard Robinson gone, Hoke will complete the transformation of the offense he started when he took over from Rich Rodriguez.
2012 Recap
Within their first four games, Michigan played and lost to the two
teams who ended up in the national championship game. In their last game
they took on the nation's only other undefeated team. In other words,
the final AP #1, #3, and #4 teams. They didn't play well at all against Alabama in Texas, losing 41-14, and
lost to Notre Dame on the road by just a touchdown, 13-6, but at 2-2 the
season was already a disappointment. The Wolverines blitzed Purdue 44-13 and beat Illinois 45-0, but
barely beat Michigan State and lost badly at Nebraska, scoring just 9
points as an injured Robinson was spelled by Bellomy (3
of 16, 3 interceptions). The offense was erratic all season as they tried to figure out what
to do with Denard Robinson; his passing was inconsistent at best, so his
running was emphasized again and when he was injured, Gardner began
playing quarterback. They fought tough
against Ohio State but lost 26-21, and kept up with South Carolina but fell 33-28.
Last year's prediction: We ranked the Wolverines #7, quite a bit higher than they deserved, it turns out. Injuries clearly played a role in that but the Alabama game showed that they weren't #7 even when healthy (then again, Notre Dame lost by a nearly identical score). We projected them 10-2 and playing in the Rose Bowl
2013 Outlook
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Michigan 2013 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/31 | Sat | vs. | Central Michigan | 99% | W | |||
| 9/7 | Sat | vs. | Notre Dame | 58% | W | |||
| 9/14 | Sat | vs. | Akron | 98% | W | |||
| 9/21 | Sat | @ | Connecticut | 86% | W | |||
| 10/5 | Sat | vs. | *Minnesota | 87% | W | |||
| 10/12 | Sat | @ | *Penn State | 71% | W | |||
| 10/19 | Sat | vs. | *Indiana | 83% | W | |||
| 11/2 | Sat | @ | *Michigan State | 63% | W | |||
| 11/9 | Sat | vs. | *Nebraska | 81% | W | |||
| 11/16 | Sat | @ | *Northwestern | 51% | W | |||
| 11/23 | Sat | @ | *Iowa | 83% | W | |||
| 11/30 | Sat | vs. | *Ohio State | 44% | L | |||
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Straight up: 11-1 Cume: 9-3 Odds of 12-0: 2%
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Last year's game-by-game forecast showed an opening loss to Alabama and 11 straight wins. This year it's turned around, with 11 straight wins and a loss to Ohio State. But the cumulative projection is only for a 9-3 season, so some of these closer games are likely to be losses.
Central Michigan should be a win, and Akron, but in between they face Notre Dame. That's a tough one but in Ann Arbor we have them favored. UConn and Minnesota are tests they should pass, as are Penn State and Indiana. Michigan State on the road should be harder than Nebraska at home, and Northwestern on the road might be the toughest game of the year up to that point; we have it basically a tossup. The final test is the hardest, obviously, as Ohio State comes to visit. That's the only loss we assign outright. We give them a pretty decent shot at winning that one, and about a 3% chance of going 12-0, but they'd have to "prove" it by beating the Buckeyes again on a neutral field. But even if they lose they might face the Buckeyes again in the Big Ten title game.
What this could mean is that after losing to Ohio State at home, the teams would play again in Indianapolis and we assume the Buckeyes win there, too. Here's where it gets complicated. There are so many SEC and Pac-12 teams in our top 14 that the BCS would need to go outside—to the top 18—for more eligible teams (since the SEC and Pac-12 can only have 2 teams in the BCS). Michigan would be the primary choice among those teams, and as the Orange Bowl fills its at-large bids first, we think they would choose the Wolverines to play the ACC champ, Florida State.
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