SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
| Michigan State Spartans (Big Ten #5; Legends #3) |
 #37 |
2012 Results |
AP NR USA NR | Strength:#41 Success:#44 Overall:#43 |
| Record: 7-6 | Bowl: Beat TCU 17-16 (Buffalo Wild Wings) |
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| 2013 Outlook |
Picks: AP #26 | USA #28 | Lindy's #20 | Athlon #32 | Steele #28 |
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| Record: 8-4 | Bowl: Gator (Eligibility odds: 95%) |
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The Spartans are probably no better than last year but they'll win more of the close games.
| Offense 7 ret. starters |
2012 Scoring Offense: #111 (raw) #85 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #92 (adjusted) |
The Spartan offense lived up to its name last year, exceeding all expectations on the downside. Without LeVeon Bell things don't look any better.
| Passing Game |
2012 Passing Rank: #86 (raw) #76 (adjusted) | 2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #51 |
| 2013 Projected Passing Rank: #51 (adjusted) |
2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #47 |
Expectations were a little too high for Andrew Maxwell (2,606 yards, 13 TDs, 9 int) prior to last season, but his senior year should be a lot better as long as he holds onto the starting job. Four of last year's top five receivers are back including top duo Bennie Fowler (524 yards) and Keith Mumphery (515). We were a little pessimistic on him last year, rating MSU's passing game #92, but this year we see a decent pickup in production as the receivers should cut down on last year's reported 66(!) drops.
| Rushing | 2012 Rushing Rank: #64 (raw) #59 (adjusted) | 2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #98 (adj.) |
LeVeon Bell (1,793 yards, 12 TDs) was one of the nation's top rushers, yet Michigan State's ground game was nothing but average. The answer to that paradox lies in Bell's 382 attempts—he was the Spartan running game. The next in line was Larry Caper with 108 and the leading returnee is Nick Hill with 48. This year it looks like redshirt freshman Riley Bullough will get the nod, or even true freshman Gerald Holmes. The offensive line is in decent shape again with three starters back: full-time starters Jack Allen and Dan France join half-time starters Blake Treadwell and Travis Jackson. They also get 2011 starter Fou Fonoti back for his senior year, but junior Skyler Burkland retired from football due to multiple injuries. The line is strong but if the ground game was just average with NFL-quality Bell, where will it rank with freshmen carrying the ball?
| 2012 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #2 Pass Defense per-game: #22 Per-attempt: #5 | ||
| Defense 6 ret. starters |
'12 Scoring Defense: #8 (raw) #5 (adjusted) | '12 sacks: #76 | '12 picks: #40 |
| '13 Projected Scoring Defense: #4 (adjusted) |
'13 sacks: #65 | '13 picks: #18 | |
Michigan State can thank its defense for all of its success last year. The rushing defense was phenomenal, competing for the top spot all year before settling at #2 in the nation after adjusting for opponents. The pass-defense wasn't far behind on a per-play basis. The biggest loss to overcome is on the defensive line where the Spartans lose William Gholson (8.5 tackles for loss, 10 pass breakups). Marcus Rush returns to the line but they probably won't be competing for the top spot anymore. At linebacker #1 tackler Max Bullough (111 tackles, 10 tackles for loss) is back along with Denicos Allen. The secondary returns three starters including Isaiah Lewis and the D returns 2/3 of its pass breakups and almost all of its interceptions. Gholson is a huge loss but the defense could be just as strong overall.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Punter Mike Sadler (43.3 average) is back but kicker Dan Conroy (23 of 32 FG) is gone; true frosh Michael Geiger, ranked the 1st or 2nd-best recruit in the nation at kicker, will replace him.
- Return Game: RB Nick Hill handled both kickoffs (21.6 average) and punts (8.9) along with Andre Sims (8.4 on punts). WR Bennie Fowler will join on kickoffs.
- Turnovers projection: Not much difference seen, though the defense might increase its interceptions.
Coaching/Recruiting 2013 Recruiting Rank: #55 2012 Recruiting Rank: #47
Mark Dantonio couldn't quite sustain double-digit winning seasons here, and recruiting has to be partly to blame. In the Big Ten, mediocre recruiting classes are going to catch up to you sooner or later; you can't keep winning 10 games in a major conference if you don't recruit at a high level. Maybe one side of the ball (the defense) can excel at a top ten level while the other side suffers. This year's class ranks in the bottom half of the conference. Of his three consensus blue chips, two are defensive players (linebackers) and one is a quarterback.
2012 Recap
Michigan State kicked off with their best win, topping
10-2 Boise State 17-13. Later they would beat Wisconsin 16-13 in overtime.
Other than that, their other bowl-team wins
were Central Michigan (41-7) and Minnesota (26-10). They also had a disappointing double overtime loss to 4-8 Iowa at
home. They lost to two undefeated teams, Notre Dame and Ohio
State, with the loss to the Irish their only game that wasn't close.
They lost to the Buckeyes by a point, to Michigan by 2 points, to
Nebraska by 4, and Northwestern by 3. A few points here and there and
the Spartans could have lived up to—or exceeded—their pre-season
expectations.
Last year's prediction: We correctly forecast gains in the running game and a decline in passing, but underestimated how far the scoring offense would fall (we had it falling from #35 to #60; it fell to #85). We ranked the Spartans #25, lower than almost anyone else but still too high as we projected an 8-4 record.
2013 Outlook
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Michigan State 2013 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/31 | Sat | vs. | Western Michigan | 89% | W | |||
| 9/7 | Sat | vs. | South Florida | 90% | W | |||
| 9/14 | Sat | vs. | Youngstown State | 92% | W | |||
| 9/21 | Sat | @ | Notre Dame | 26% | L | |||
| 10/5 | Sat | @ | *Iowa | 66% | W | |||
| 10/12 | Sat | vs. | *Indiana | 66% | W | |||
| 10/19 | Sat | vs. | *Purdue | 82% | W | |||
| 10/26 | Sat | @ | *Illinois | 88% | W | |||
| 11/2 | Sat | vs. | *Michigan | 37% | L | |||
| 11/16 | Sat | @ | *Nebraska | 45% | L | |||
| 11/23 | Sat | @ | *Northwestern | 30% | L | |||
| 11/30 | Sat | vs. | *Minnesota | 77% | W | |||
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Straight up: 8-4 Cume: 8-4 Bowl eligible: 95%
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This year's prediction is almost a carbon copy of last year's—an 8-4 record, either game-by-game or cumulative, and a 95% chance of bowl eligibility. The question is can Michigan State live up to it this time?
The first three games should be easy wins at home, but that won't prepare them very well for a road game against Notre Dame. Iowa on the road should be easier than the Irish but the Hawkeyes beat the Spartans in East Lansing last year. And Indiana will be a much-improved team. Still, the Spartans can reasonably hope to be 7-1 after beating Purdue and Illinois, and 4-0 in the Big Ten.
Then they face three tough games in a row: Michigan at home, and Nebraska and Northwestern on the road. We have all three as losses but all are in play and the Spartans will need wins over that stretch to compete for the Legends division title. Minnesota at home should be another win.
That puts them at 8-4, and if they end up the #5 Big Ten team they'll go to the Gator Bowl and face an SEC team, perhaps LSU.
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