2013 Pre-season Rankings: #17 Miami Hurricanes

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Miami Hurricanes  (ACC #3; Coastal #1)

#17	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#54  Success:#56  Overall:#58
		Record: 7-5	Bowl: None (opted out of post-season)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #29 | USA #27 | Lindy's #24 | Athlon #29 | Steele #26
		Record: 10-2	Bowl: Russell Athletic (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Back in the day this would have been a disappointing pre-season ranking for the Hurricanes, but a decade of middling success has changed things.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #49 (raw) #32 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #14 (adjusted)

If Stephen Morris and Duke Johnson play to their potential the offense will be potent.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #25 (raw) #17 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #27
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #3 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #12

Stephen Morris (3,345 yards, 21 TDs, 7 int) had a great year and really came on strong at the end, leaving many wondering what 2013 held in store. Most likely, a passing attack that ranks near the very best in the nation. The three top receivers are back—Phillip Dorsett (842 yards), Rashawn Scott (512), and Clive Watford (453)—and three other returnees topped 200 yards. The 'Canes have an experienced backup QB in Ryan Williams (137 yards last year; 2,075 yards, 13 TDs, 10 int at Memphis in 2010) and an offensive line that gave up a reasonable 18 sacks last year and returns all five starters. All signs point to a potentially very strong passing game.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #83 (raw) #72 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #57 (adj.)

Duke Johnson had 947 yards and 10 touchdowns as a freshman, establishing himself as the back of the future at The U. Mike James had 621 yards in his senior year. The offensive line should make Johnson's life even easier this year as all five starters are back. Brandon Linder, Shane McDermott, and Malcolm Bunche started every game while John Feliciano started the majority in relief of the injured Ereck Flowers. Finally, there's Seantrel Henderson, the former #1 recruit who's been injury-plagued for several seasons; he's healthy now and this should be one of the best offensive lines around. Look for a fantasic year from Johnson and better team production from the 'Canes.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #112    Pass Defense  per-game: #108   Per-attempt: #75
Defense 6 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #87 (raw) #73 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #116	'12 picks: #74
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #49 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #92	'13 picks: #41

Miami's defense last year certainly wasn't the kind that made "The U" famous. With a porous rushing defense and passing D that wasn't much better, and no ability to pressure the quarterback, it was somewhat of an embarrassment. Things look better this season, at least on paper. The rush defense should improve as the defensive line returns #1 tackler Shayon Greene (67 tackles) and sacks leader Anthony Chickillo, plus grad transfer David Gilbert who started at Wisconsin last year. Eddie Johnson (6.5 tackles for loss) is gone at linebakers but #2 tackler Denzel Perryman returns. The secondary loses Brandon McGee but several part-time starters return. This won't be a great defense by any means but the really bad numbers will be less awful, and the mediocre numbers should become quite respectable.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker Jake Wieclaw (19 of 25 field goals last year) and punter Dalton Bolts (40.5 average) are gone. Cincinnati transfer Pat O'Donnell (41.8 average in 2012) should take over as punter and soph Matt Goudis will placekick.
• Return Game:  Duke Johnson averaged 33 yards per kickoff return, amped by 2 touchdown returns. Phillip Dorsett gained 5.7 yards per punt return; both are back.
• Turnovers projection:  Morris can't improve too much on his 7 interceptions, but Miami should get more of them on defense (11 last year) and have better luck on fumble recoveries.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #18          2012 Recruiting Rank: #4
Al Golden didn't have a top-five recruiting class this year but he's pretty much established that Miami recruiting is going to be in the top 25 perennially. He's recruited this well in the face of meager success and looming sanctions from the NCAA, as Miami has self-imposed a post-season ban two years in a row, opting out of the ACC title game last December. This year's class ranks near the top of the conference.

2012 Recap 
Miami beat Boston College in the opener 41-32 but in game two they were crushed by Kansas State 52-13. Three more wins—including a rollercoaster ride overtime win at Georgia Tech—were followed by another downer, the 41-3 loss to Notre Dame. After North Carolina and Florida State (a more respectable 33-20) the Canes got a win over Virginia Tech, 30-12. They lost to Virginia 41-40 as the defense still couldn't pull its weight, but closed with wins over South Florida and Duke to go 7-5. Because North Carolina was on probation the Hurricanes could have gone to the ACC title game and potentially the Orange Bowl, but Miami self-imposed another post-season ban due to the Nevin Shapiro scandal.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Miami #56 and they ended up #54 in our Strength power rating. We projected just a 5-7 record however.

2013 Outlook

Miami 2013 schedule & forecast
8/30	Fri	vs.	Florida Atlantic	98%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	Florida	62%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Savannah State	100%	W
9/28	Sat	@	South Florida	91%	W
10/5	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	75%	W
10/17	Thu	@	*North Carolina	60%	W
10/26	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	97%	W
11/2	Sat	@	*Florida State	32%	L
11/9	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	86%	W
11/16	Sat	@	*Duke	87%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	93%	W
11/29	Fri	@	*Pittsburgh	88%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 5%

This year we're projecting a very good year for Miami, with only one clear loss on their slate and a cumulative estimate of 10 wins. We even give them a 4% chance of running the table.

There's only one challege in the first four games, and that's Florida. They get the Gators at home so they have a real shot at beating them. Florida Atlantic and especially Savannah State (84-0 losers to Oklahoma State last year) should be afterthoughts, and South Florida is rebuilding. Georgia Tech is always a test, and North Carolina in Chapel Hill will be even bigger. Wake Forest at home should be a solid win.

Then it's time for the year's other big test, Florida State on the road, and that's probably too much to handle. The last four games should be relatively easy compared to previous years.

What the Hurricanes need is consistency. If they play hot and cold on offense and defense then they will be upset by teams they should be beating. This year's schedule is easier than last year's (Florida, but no Kansas State or Notre Dame) and Miami is going to be the favorite most weeks; the conference schedule could be full of traps if they aren't focused. Miami should win the Coastal division which would set up a rematch with FSU for the ACC title and an Orange Bowl berth, but we rank FSU #1 in the ACC. If the 'Canes do finish the #3 team in the conference they'll go to the Russell Athletic Bowl and face the American Athletic Conference #2 team, which should be Cincinnati.

More Previews • Full coverage of all 125 FBS teams
SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125