SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
| LSU Tigers (SEC #7; West #4) |
 #18 |
2012 Results |
AP #14 USA #12 | Strength:#14 Success:#10 Overall:#10 |
| Record: 10-3 | Bowl: Lost to Clemson 25-24 (Chick-fil-A) |
||
| 2013 Outlook |
Picks: AP #12 | USA #13 | Lindy's #8 | Athlon #12 | Steele #13 |
||
| Record: 7-5 | Bowl: Chick-fil-A (Eligibility odds: 93%) |
||
LSU loses about half their squad to the NFL but should still field a top 25 team.
| Offense 7 ret. starters |
2012 Scoring Offense: #58 (raw) #31 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #29 (adjusted) |
This year, Zach Mettenberger should come closer to living up to last year's expectations.
| Passing Game |
2012 Passing Rank: #95 (raw) #89 (adjusted) | 2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #73 |
| 2013 Projected Passing Rank: #49 (adjusted) |
2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #89 |
We warned people not to expect great things from Zach Mettenberger (2,609 yards, 12 TDs, 7 int) last year, and indeed his first season starting was a disappointment to most. But this year should be a lot better since he has experience and perhaps more importantly, his four top receivers from last season are back with Odell Beckham (713 yards) and Jarvis Landry (573) leading the way. Sacks (32) were a problem last year and that issue isn't settle by a longshot as the O-line has some problems, but Penn State transfer Rob Bolden (1,360 passing yards in 2011) adds experience to the backup QB stable in case of a mishap. Mettenberger should have a much better year as a senior.
| Rushing | 2012 Rushing Rank: #52 (raw) #32 (adjusted) | 2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #43 (adj.) |
Over the years LSU assembled a great collection of running backs and used all of them in committee style in 2012. Jeremy Hill (755 yards, 12 TDs) led last year and Kenny Hilliard (464, 6) was #2; both are back. They lose Michael Ford (392) and Spencer Ware (367) but Alfred Blue (270) returns. Hill got into some trouble this spring but avoided jail time and the team voted to take him back, but that might put him behind Blue and Hilliard in the committee rotation. The offensive line will be somewhat weaker than last year's model. La'el Collins is back with Vadal Alexander, while Trai Turner started half-time. Josh Williford started only half-time last year due to a concussion, and he suffered another one in fall camp putting him out for this year, too (and maybe for his career). The ground game may lose a step or two while remaining relatively strong.
| 2012 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #6 Pass Defense per-game: #28 Per-attempt: #4 | ||
| Defense 3 ret. starters |
'12 Scoring Defense: #12 (raw) #6 (adjusted) | '12 sacks: #30 | '12 picks: #16 |
| '13 Projected Scoring Defense: #13 (adjusted) |
'13 sacks: #58 | '13 picks: #29 | |
For years LSU has been a team led by its defense, and last year was no exception. This year's group faces the ramifications of its own success as several players left early for the pros. Pretty much the entire defensive line was drafted by the NFL including first-round draft choice Barkevious Mingo (4.5 sacks) and 2nd-rounder Sam Montgomery (8 sacks). At linebacker #1 tackler Kevin Minter (130 tackles, 11 tackles for loss) went pro but #2 tackler Lamin Barrow (7.5 tackles for loss) returns. The secondary actually returns two starters including Craig Loston but Tharold Simon (9 pass breakups, 4 int) is gone. Sacks and interceptions will probably both drop and the defense will be top ten no more across the board. But given LSU's talent level the reserves will fill the gaps well and it will be well inside the top 25.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Both kicker Drew Alleman (21 of 29 FG) and punter Brad Wing (44.8 average) are gone; junior James Hairston and sophomore Jamie Keehn (43.7 ave on 12 punts) will take over.
- Return Game: Odell Beckman returned two punts for touchdowns last year and averaged 9.1 yards; Michael Ford departs after averaging 27.5 per kickoff return, and freshman d-back Jeryl Brazil may get a shot there.
- Turnovers projection: We see fewer picks on defense (18 last year) .
Coaching/Recruiting 2013 Recruiting Rank: #8 2012 Recruiting Rank: #15
The NFL can take 'em away, but Les Miles keeps bringing them in. This year's recruiting class ranks in the top ten in the nation but barely makes the top 5 in the SEC.
2012 Recap
LSU's offense looked amazing in the Tigers' first three games,
racking up 41, 41, and 63 points in wins over North Texas, Washington, and Idaho, but against Auburn—hardly a great
defense—they managed just 12 points. Luckily their defense rose to the
occasion as it did many times during the year. They lost to Florida 14-6, but beat South Carolina 23-21 and Texas A&M 24-19, and almost beat Alabama, falling 21-17. They won three straight after that to finish 10-2, then couldn't hold the lead against Clemson and lost on a last-second field goal. The four-game stretch from Florida to Alabama was probably the
toughest any team faced all year, and they emerged with two wins by a
total of 7 points, and 2 losses by a total of 12.
Last year's prediction: We overrated the Tigers' strength, ranking them #4, but our 10-2 projection came true. Game-by-game, however, we didn't pick any losses, with even Alabama a narrow victory (since they were at home).
2013 Outlook
|
LSU 2013 schedule & forecast |
||||||||
| 8/31 | Sat | @ | TCU | 49% | L | |||
| 9/7 | Sat | vs. | UAB | 98% | W | |||
| 9/14 | Sat | vs. | Kent State | 95% | W | |||
| 9/21 | Sat | vs. | *Auburn | 88% | W | |||
| 9/28 | Sat | @ | *Georgia | 20% | L | |||
| 10/5 | Sat | @ | *Mississippi State | 63% | W | |||
| 10/12 | Sat | vs. | *Florida | 58% | W | |||
| 10/19 | Sat | @ | *Mississippi | 34% | L | |||
| 10/26 | Sat | vs. | Furman | 100% | W | |||
| 11/9 | Sat | @ | *Alabama | 8% | L | |||
| 11/23 | Sat | vs. | *Texas A&M | 28% | L | |||
| 11/30 | Sat | vs. | *Arkansas | 95% | W | |||
|
Straight up: 7-5 Cume: 7-5 Bowl eligible: 93%
|
||||||||
|
|
If LSU wanted to maximize their chances to upset the SEC's top team—Alabama and Texas A&M—they couldn't have set up a better schedule. The Tigers not only have a week off before Alabama, but they play Furman in the previous game, essentially giving the team three weeks to recover and practice for the Tide. Then they have a week off immediately after Alabama and before the Aggies. In all, they have 9 games, a week off, 1 game, another week off, and two more games.
TCU in Arlington is a damn tough opener, and after recent personnel losses by both teams our estimate tips on whether Jeremy Hill plays or not; this season the "half game suspension" is all the rage so that wouldn't surprise us here, but neither would Miles making Hill serve the suspension vs. UAB. The Tigers have two breathers after TCU (three if you could Auburn). Georgia looks like their first definite loss, and while Mississippi State and Florida will be no picnic we pick those for the Tigers. Mississippi on the road is another matter. Then comes the Furman-bye week-Alabama-bye week-Texas A&M month before closing out at Arkansas.
The cumulative estimate leans to 7-5 but 8-4 sounds reasonable to us. The trouble is that the losses (apart from TCU) look more certain than wins over Florida, and Mississippi State. In any case the Tigers might be headed for a rematch with Clemson in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
More Previews • Full coverage of all 125 FBS teams
SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
|
|
Comments