SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
| Indiana Hoosiers (Big Ten #7; Leaders #3) |
 #42 |
2012 Results |
AP NR USA NR | Strength:#77 Success:#88 Overall:#83 |
| Record: 4-8 | Bowl: None | ||
| 2013 Outlook |
Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #63 | Athlon #59 | Steele #53 |
||
| Record: 7-5 | Bowl: Meineke Car Care (Eligibility odds: 84%) |
||
With their best team in years (decades?) Indiana has a great opportunity to reach its 2nd bowl game since 1993.
| Offense 9 ret. starters |
2012 Scoring Offense: #50 (raw) #34 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #15 (adjusted) |
The Hoosiers have an embarrassment of riches at quarterback.
| Passing Game |
2012 Passing Rank: #17 (raw) #18 (adjusted) | 2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #46 |
| 2013 Projected Passing Rank: #2 (adjusted) |
2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #48 |
Cameron Coffman (2,734 yards, 15 TDs, 11 int) had the kind of year that would normally have Hoosier football fans speculating about his potential for the coming season, but he might not be the starter in 2013. That could be Nate Sudfeld (632 yards, 7 TDs, 1 int) who was great as a freshman, or Tre Roberson (368, 2:1, 937 in 2011) the starter early in 2012 before injury (broken leg). Whoever it is will have very reliable backups and a full complement of receivers from last year including Cody Latimer (805 yards, 6 TDs), Shane Wynn (660 yards, 6 TDs), and Kofi Hughes (639). Four others with 150+ receiving yards are back, too. Add in an talented young offensive line and Indiana's passing game could be among the best in the nation; it certainly would be if you take injury risk into consideration, as they can survive the kind of bad luck that has decimated teams in the past.
| Rushing | 2012 Rushing Rank: #96 (raw) #83 (adjusted) | 2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #64 (adj.) |
The running back corps looks a lot like the receiver corps; that is, everyone is back. Only one player had over 500 yards (Stephen Houston, 749, 12 TDs) but four others had over 100 and all of them return. One is QB Roberson who had 133 (11.1 average) in just 2 games (426 in 2011). The offensive line started two freshmen last year and three sophomores shared 2 positions, so they are young and improving, but they recently lost one of last year's freshman starters, Dan Feeney, to a foot injury. Sophomore Jason Spriggs returns along with junior Peyton Eckert while juniors Bernard Taylor and Colin Rahrig split the left guard position last season. The ground game should still be much better and depending on how much Roberson (the only running QB) plays it could really take off.
| 2012 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #116 Pass Defense per-game: #112 Per-attempt: #123 | ||
| Defense 7 ret. starters |
'12 Scoring Defense: #107 (raw) #109 (adjusted) | '12 sacks: #67 | '12 picks: #98 |
| '13 Projected Scoring Defense: #97 (adjusted) |
'13 sacks: #60 | '13 picks: #82 | |
Needless to say it was Indiana's defense that prevented them from getting over the hump last season. It won't be great this year but it will be better, though some recent losses have tempered that pronouncement. The defensive line loses two key starters, Adam Replogle (5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss) and Larry Black (4, 8), begging the question of whether the piss-poor rushing defense will improve. But at linebacker the situation is a lot better as last year's group is back, or was until Chase Hoobler went out with a stress fracture; he'll miss half the season, maybe all of it. More bad news hit the secondary as Antonio Marshall was dismissed, but otherwise the backfield is in good shape with Greg Heben, last year's top tackler (91 tackles) returning. The defense is still going to be a problem and the offense will have to win games by itself at times, but they'll have an easier time doing so.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Mitch Ewald (15 of 20 FG last year) is back for his senior year and punter Erich Toth (39.5 average) returns as a sophomore.
- Return Game: Tevin Coleman had a 96-yard TD return last year while averaging 23.6 yards per kickoff return. Nick Stoner averaged 5.8 on punt returns and Shane Wynn, who had a TD return in 2011, may handle more this year.
- Turnovers projection: The defense should have a lot more than last year's 7 interceptions.
Coaching/Recruiting 2013 Recruiting Rank: #45 2012 Recruiting Rank: #48
Kevin Wilson has been recruiting pretty well at Indiana and this year is no exception, ranking right in the thick of things in the Big Ten. This year's group even includes some blue chips, though WR Taj Williams got away (academics). That leaves a trio of defensive players, all from Indianapolis, as the top recruits; all of them could see time this year as the Hoosiers try to shore up the defense.
2012 Recap
The Hoosiers held off Indiana State, 24-17, and crushed UMass 45-6 but a 41-39 loss to Ball State ushered in the losses and they continued. By the time they fell to Navy 31-30 Indiana was 2-5. They beat Illinois 31-17 on the road and edged Iowa at home 24-21 before dropping the last three. Indiana's offense kept them in almost every game as four of their losses were by a touchdown or less, including a 52-49 loss to 12-0 Ohio State.
Last year's prediction: We were pretty close on their record, projecting a 3-9 season, but we didn't think many of the losses would be close; we ranked Indiana #109, much worse than they turned out to be. We saw improvement in the offense but not nearly to the extent that occurred.
2013 Outlook
|
Indiana 2013 schedule & forecast |
||||||||
| 8/31 | Sat | vs. | Indiana State | 87% | W | |||
| 9/7 | Sat | vs. | Navy | 90% | W | |||
| 9/14 | Sat | vs. | Bowling Green | 76% | W | |||
| 9/21 | Sat | vs. | Missouri | 46% | L | |||
| 10/5 | Sat | vs. | *Penn State | 65% | W | |||
| 10/12 | Sat | @ | *Michigan State | 34% | L | |||
| 10/19 | Sat | @ | *Michigan | 17% | L | |||
| 11/2 | Sat | vs. | *Minnesota | 70% | W | |||
| 11/9 | Sat | vs. | *Illinois | 92% | W | |||
| 11/16 | Sat | @ | *Wisconsin | 24% | L | |||
| 11/23 | Sat | @ | *Ohio State | 9% | L | |||
| 11/30 | Sat | vs. | *Purdue | 76% | W | |||
|
Straight up: 7-5 Cume: 7-5 Bowl eligible: 84%
|
||||||||
|
|
Indiana's schedule this year is very favorable—they have 8 home games, and the teams they face on the road they probably wouldn't beat at home anyway.
The Hoosiers kick off against Indiana State, and this year it shouldn't be much of a game. They can beat Navy and Bowling Green, too, but depending on how good those teams are they could be tough. They real home-game challenge—the only one we don't make them a fairly solid favorite in—is Missouri, basically a 50/50 proposition. They can handle Penn State, too, and could be 5-0 at this point, though 4-1 is more realistic.
Back-to-back road games at Michigan State and Michigan follow, and both will probably be losses since those are better teams and will be their first games away from home. Later road games against Wisconsin and Ohio State are even more daunting. But even conceding those four, closing out the home season against Minnesota, Illinois, and Purdue should get them to bowl eligibility with room to spare.
We rank Indiana #7 in the Big Ten which puts them in line for the Meineke Care Care of Texas Bowl against a Big Twelve team, perhaps Texas Tech.
More Previews • Full coverage of all 125 FBS teams
SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
|
|
Comments