2013 Pre-season Rankings: #95 Houston Cougars

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Houston Cougars  (American #9)

#95	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#94  Success:#90  Overall:#95
		Record: 5-7	Bowl: None
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #60 | Athlon #92 | Steele #73
		Record: 4-8	Bowl: None (Eligibility odds: 22%)

An improved Cougar offense is equally offset by a problematic defense.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #37 (raw) #70 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #55 (adjusted)

The upward move for the offense would have been greater if not for the summer loss of the team's leading rusher and leading receiver.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #11 (raw) #19 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #43
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #17 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #35

In 2012 David Piland (2,924 yards, 16 TDs, 12 int) started his 2nd non-consecutive year for the Cougars following his 2010 stint covering for the injured Case Keenum. The results were roughly the same; the Cougars went 5-7 in 2010, too. Main backup Crawford Jones (972 yards, 11 TD, 6 int) is gone but Piland is back for his junior year (he redshirted in 2011). At the beginning of the summer you could have said the top six pass catchers were back but since then #1 Dewayne Peace (603 yards, 2 TD) was declared ineligible and RB Charles Sims (#5 with 373) transferred. Daniel Spencer (579) and Deontey Greenberry (564) and six others with 100+ yards will try to pick up the slack. The offensive line (19 sacks allowed) should be even stronger. Despite the loss of their top receiver the passing game should be just as good or better.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #73 (raw) #103 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #96 (adj.)

Charles Sims (851 yards, 11 TDs) led the team in rushing for the third non-consecutive year (he redshirted in 2010) but because he graduated he was free to transfer to West Virginia. This leaves sophomore Kenneth Farrow (#2 with 466) the heir apparent but Ryan Jackson (252) will be in the mix. With QB Piland having 190 yards, the top four rushers are back minus Sims. The offensive line returns four starters: Ty Cloud, Ralph Oragwu, Rowdy Harper, and Bryce Redman, and 2011 starter Kevin Forsch takes the other slot. Again, despite losing their #1 gainer, production should increase.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #111    Pass Defense  per-game: #107   Per-attempt: #67
Defense 4 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #112 (raw) #106 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #15	'12 picks: #10
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #117 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #44	'13 picks: #8

The remarkable thing about Houston's defense last year was the amount of big plays—they ranked in the top 15 in both sacks and interceptions, adjusted for their opponents, despite ranking in the bottom 25 of all scoring defenses. We project the sack totals to take a dive as the Cougars lose linebackers Phillip Steward (11 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss, #1 w/128 tackles) and Everett Daniels (5 sacks, 112 tackles), though Derek Matthews (6 sacks, 11 tackles for loss, 126 tackles) is back. Interceptions should still be a weapon for the defense as starters Trevon Stewart (tied for 2nd with 126 tackles, 7 pass breakups) and Zach MacMillian (team leader with 5 picks) are back, along with backup Thomas Bates (10 pass breakups). The rushing defense was terrible last season and with three starters gone from the defensive line things might not get better. Add in the big losses at linebacker and Houston's defense might take another step down.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Houston's kicking game was superb last year. Punter Richie Leone (45.5 average) is back, but kicker Matt Hogan (20 of 25 FG) is gone. Leone may take over placekicking chores too unless freshman Ty Cummings gets the nod.
• Return Game:  Ryan Jackson averaged 21.7 yards per kickoff return and he's back, but with Dewayne Peace's departure WR Larry McDuffey will handle punts. They also have Damian Payne, who returned a punt for a touchdown in 2011.
• Turnovers projection:  Houston gets points for fumbles (or rather, last year's bad luck with fumble recoveries) and Piland should be able to cut down on last year's interceptions (18 as a team). The defense will still be a big INT threat but probably won't match last year's 19.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #48          2012 Recruiting Rank: #50
Tony Levine's first season here was somewhat nightmarish but he survived and the team almost recovered to make a bowl game. Still, the drop from 13-1 to 5-7 is going to put a coach on the hot seat pretty quickly. Levine brought in another solid class of recruits this year, which bodes well for the future. The class ranks near the top of the new American Athletic Conference but there aren't any true standouts in the group. Of course, Case Keenum was a 2-star recruit, so a class loaded with 2- and 3-star recruits can obviously be pretty good.

2012 Recap 
The Cougars' 2012 season started off against Texas State, a newly-minted FBS program, at home. Houston was a 36 1/2 point favorite. By the time they lost, 30-13, it was clear that the team was more than just a few steps down from 2011's 13-1 squad; in fact, the future of the program looked bleak on that day. Levine fired his offensive coordinator before the second outing, which was just as bad until the offense finally got into gear and almost beat Louisiana Tech, losing 56-49. UCLA kicked the Cougars in the head 37-6. Houston managed to even their record with three wins, and stumbled to a 5-7 finish. Clearly they were better than that first game but a world away from 2011.

Last year's prediction: We didn't nearly downgrade Houston enough from their #9 finish in our 2011 Strength power rating. We dropped them to #37, the equivalent of a top ten team in the AP poll receiving only a few votes the next year. Even so, that meant they were favored in most of their games, and expected to easily be bowl-eligible and compete for the C-USA title again. None of that happened.

2013 Outlook

Houston 2013 schedule & forecast
8/30	Fri	vs.	Southern	100%	W
9/7	Sat	@	*Temple	44%	L
9/21	Sat	N	Rice	13%	L
9/28	Sat	@	Texas-San Antonio	43%	L
10/12	Sat	vs.	*Memphis	56%	W
10/19	Sat	vs.	BYU	13%	L
10/26	Sat	@	*Rutgers	28%	L
10/31	Thu	vs.	*South Florida	56%	W
11/9	Sat	@	*UCF	17%	L
11/16	Sat	@	*Louisville	6%	L
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Cincinnati	24%	L
11/29	Fri	vs.	*SMU	41%	L
Straight up: 3-9  Cume: 4-8  Bowl eligible: 22%

We're going out on a limb and saying there won't be an upset in this year's opener for the Cougars against woeful Southern (4-7). Beyond that, there's little chance that we are being over-optimistic about Houston's prospects this season as we favor them in only two other games and project that they'll finish around 4-8.

Memphis at home should be a win along with USF, but both games could be close and aren't guarantees. Other close games in which we consider Houston the underdog include Temple on the road, UTSA on the road (if they can lose to Texas State at home by 17, losing to UTSA on the road isn't far-fetched), and SMU (who beat Houston by 30 last year) at home.

If the Cougars can win all those games instead, which doesn't seem unreasonable, they'll have six wins and be back to a bowl game. Otherwise they'll have to pull off an upset somewhere. We give them about a 1 in 5 chance. We gave last year's team a 99.8% chance to reach 6-6 and they failed, so 1 in 5 odds should be easy to beat!

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Comments

[STEVEN]

these breakdowns kick ass man, love them thanks

[Mike]

The program is beset by lack of funding and poor administration. Levine is a marginal hire and UH is just marking time until he is fired.