2013 Pre-season Rankings: #4 Georgia Bulldogs

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Georgia Bulldogs  (SEC #3; East #1)

#4	2012 Results	AP #5 USA #4	Strength:#5  Success:#8  Overall:#6
		Record: 12-2	Bowl: Beat Nebraska 45-31 (Capital One)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #5 | USA #5 | Lindy's #6 | Athlon #4 | Steele #6
		Record: 10-2	Bowl: Capital One (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

The Bulldog offense is going to be scary but defense could be their downfall as they make a run for an SEC and national title.

Offense 9 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #16 (raw) #11 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #4 (adjusted)

Both in passing and rushing Georgia should rank close to the top ten nationally (after correcting for the tough defenses they face) which should put them among the top 5 scoring offenses.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #30 (raw) #23 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #55
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #10 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #33

Aaron Murray (3,893 yards, 36 TDs, 10 int) has to be on any shortlist of the best college quarterbacks playing today, and while he doesn't get the publicity that some of the others get he should be in the running for the Heisman Trophy. Top receiver Tavarres King (950 yards, 9 TDs) is gone but #2 Malcolm Mitchell (572 yards) is back along with 8 other players who had 100+ receiving yards. The offensive line should provide better protection than last year (26 sacks) as all five starters return. Murray should have a fantastic senior year.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #43 (raw) #30 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #11 (adj.)

Todd Gurley (1,385 yards, 17 TDs) and Keith Marshall (759 yards, 8 TDs) both return to the Georgia backfield. That, and the fact that all 5 starters return to the offensive line suggests a big upgrade in ground production is possible. The line starts three seniors—Dallas Lee, Chris Burnette, and Kenarious Gates—junior David Andrews, and soph John Theus. Georgia should have a very balanced attack which spells trouble for opposing defenses.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #52    Pass Defense  per-game: #34   Per-attempt: #44
Defense 3 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #20 (raw) #16 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #37	'12 picks: #36
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #44 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #66	'13 picks: #91

Georgia's 3-4 returns just one starter on the defensive line, Garrison Smith; the rushing defense was already relatively weak and will be an even bigger concern now. At linebacker three starters are gone including #1 tackler Alec Ogletree (111 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss) and 1st team all-American Jarvis Jones (14.5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss). Last year's sack total (32) is bound to plunge without Jones, but backup LB Jordan Jenkins (5 sacks) returns with starter Amarlo Herrera (leading returning tackler w/70). The secondary loses three starters including Shawn Williams and Bacarri Rambo, meaning that the team's top 4 tacklers from last year are gone. The defense loses about 75% of its pass breakups from last year and 60% of interceptions, so last year's 13 picks probably won't be matched. We see the defense, though still well above average, being much weaker than last year's top 25 unit.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker Marshall Morgan (8 of 14 field goals) and punter Collin Barber (41.5 average) are back; they were both freshmen last year. Morgan will probably miss the first game due to a BUI (boating under the influence) charge.
• Return Game:  Malcolm Mitchell (22.5 average on kickoffs) and Rhett McGowan (8.3 on punts) are both back. Todd Gurley had a touchdown return on a kickoff last year but was only used 7 times, probably because he's too valuable at running back; there's talk of using him on kickoffs this season, though.
• Turnovers projection:  The defense getting fewer picks is the only significant change we see.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #2          2012 Recruiting Rank: #19
Mark Richt recruited in bulk this year, with 33 signees. How he did this I'm not sure, but it must fit within the SEC's 25-player signing cap somehow. In any case, about half of these players are blue chips and the other half are simply above average; there are no top-50 or uber-blue chip players in the class. But that doesn't really matter, because not all of those players become superstars and when you have 16 "2nd tier" players, many of those do become superstars. We rank this the best class in the SEC by a hair over Alabama, though attrition can still change that (we only know of one departure, WR Rico Johnson, so far).

2012 Recap
The season was great but it ended up being defined by one game; one play, even. Before the season, many were picking Georgia as the East champion not just based on strength but also due to schedule. And Georgia really did have an easy path to the SEC title game; they managed to play 4 of the 5 SEC teams that finished with a losing record. The Missouri game looked to be a challenge early on and the Bulldogs pulled away by 3 touchdowns 41-20. Beating Vanderbilt 48-3 was truly impressive in retrospect. At 4-0 Georgia looked like they had a shot at the national championship but the next week's performance against Tennessee was awful on D (51-44), and the South Carolina loss (35-7) was a disaster. A meager win over Kentucky (28-24) made it look like Georgia wasn't going anywhere. But the 17-9 Florida win changed that, and the Bulldogs coasted from there, playing better on offense every game and with the defense finally living up to its billing. Confident going into the showdown with Alabama for the SEC title and more importantly, a berth in the BCS championship game, the Bulldogs fought hard all game but came up just short on a botched play. They got some measure of redemption with their 45-31 win over Nebraska but it wasn't the same; they were already looking ahead to next year.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Georgia #12, maybe a little low but the basic idea was right. The cumulative estimate was for a 9-3 season but game-by-game we picked them 11-1 (losing to Missouri, not Florida). Our most prescient moment was at the end of the review when we observed, "Should Georgia win the East division, they'll play—and very likely lose to—the West winner, after which they'll play in the Capital One bowl probably against Nebraska."

2013 Outlook

Georgia 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	@	Clemson	61%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	77%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	North Texas	99%	W
9/28	Sat	vs.	*LSU	80%	W
10/5	Sat	@	*Tennessee	87%	W
10/12	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	89%	W
10/19	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	78%	W
11/2	Sat	N	*Florida	72%	W
11/9	Sat	vs.	Appalachian State	100%	W
11/16	Sat	@	*Auburn	89%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	97%	W
11/30	Sat	@	Georgia Tech	80%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 11%

There are several big games on Georgia's slate, but most of them are at home, and they should be favored in all of them. The first one is Clemson, and it might be their toughest game of the regular season since it's on the road and a starter or two will be missing. If they get past the Tigers their reward is facing both South Carolina and LSU within the next 2 weeks. Both of those are at home, however.

The biggest challenges over the rest of the SEC schedule are Vanderbilt (on the road) and Florida on neutral ground. Tennessee, Missouri, Auburn, and Kentucky shouldn't be too troubling if the Bulldogs are serious about winning the conference this time around. And they get two gimme games in North Texas and Appalachian State at home.

Georgia Tech on the road is another decent test; it won't affect their SEC championship bid but could derail their national title hopes. But the game everyone will be waiting for is the SEC championship game. It will be in Atlanta again, and probably feature the same two teams, Georgia and Alabama. And again, Alabama will probably win; they're just too good. The Bulldogs have a shot due to emotion and the Tide might have a tough time maintaining focus after winning for so long.

But first the Bulldogs have to get there. The defense is a major worry as to whether they can win week in and week out against their tough schedule without a defensive collapse in one game or another. The offense might be good enough to cover for that, however. Our cumulative estimate yields a 10-2 record, with a 10% chance of achieving the 12-0 game-by-game prediction.

Going by our rankings, Georgia should again go to the Capital One Bowl, this time perhaps playing Northwestern.

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