2013 Pre-season Rankings: #9 Florida State Seminoles

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Florida State Seminoles  (ACC #1; Atlantic #1)

#9	2012 Results	AP #10 USA #8	Strength:#6  Success:#14  Overall:#13
		Record: 12-2	Bowl: Beat Northern Illinois 31-10 (Orange)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #11 | USA #12 | Lindy's #13 | Athlon #15 | Steele #4
		Record: 10-2	Bowl: Orange (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

This year's key games are the same as last year's: Clemson for the ACC title, and Florida to have a shot at the national title. And of course they have to avoid upsets to teams like NC State.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #9 (raw) #17 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #30 (adjusted)

FSU had a top ten scoring offense in raw figures but played two FCS teams that juiced the numbers; when corrected it was still in the top 25 but may slip out this year.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #40 (raw) #40 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #65
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #54 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #39

Transition at QB: E.J. Manuel (3,392 yards, 23 TDs, 10 int) moves on and backup Clint Trickett (272 yards) transferred to West Virginia when he saw the writing on the wall that redshirt freshman Jameis Winston would be the new starter at FSU. He inherits an uncertain situation at receiver. Seven of the top 10 pass catchers were back as of spring: #1 Rashad Greene (741 yards, 6 TDs) and #2 Kenny Shaw (532) are back while #3 Rodney Smith (524) is not. But the corps has suffered some attrition since then; #5 Greg Dent (355) was charged with rape and indefinitely suspended, and #10 Jarred Haggins is out for the year with a knee injury. 2010 starter Willie Haulstead was declared academically ineligible, tight ends Kevin Haplea and Jeremy Kerr are out for the season with injuries while Christos Kourtzidis transferred, Marvin Bracy opted off the team for a pro track and field career, and Greene could miss time early with a finger injury.  Winston can count on better protection than the line offered last year as almost every starter is back on the O-line and then some. Overall we look for an adjustment period and lower numbers with the receiver woes, but some are declaring Winston the next Johnny Manziel and if that's true all bets are off.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #24 (raw) #33 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #33 (adj.)

Florida State had three main rushers last year and two are back: #1 Chris Thompson (687 yards, 5 TDs) is gone while Devonta Freeman (660 yards, 8 TDs) and James Wilder (635, 11) are back. Three other players who topped 150 yards are gone as well, and Thompson had the best per-carry average (7.5) by far so the backfield may be a bit weaker but the offensive line will make up for that. Four starters return from last season: senior Brian Stork is joined by juniors Tre Jackson, Josue Matias, and Cameron Erving. Moreover, 2011 starter Bobby Hart moves into the open slot at right tackle and another 2011 starter, Jacob Fahrenkrug, is back from medical redshirt.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #11    Pass Defense  per-game: #4   Per-attempt: #3
Defense 4 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #6 (raw) #7 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #40	'12 picks: #88
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #7 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #70	'13 picks: #65

The defensive line is going through big changes as all four starters are gone; losing Tank Carradine (11 sacks) and Bjoern Warner (13 sacks) pretty much guarantees the Seminoles won't approach last year's total of 36 sacks. Last season's near-top-ten rushing defense is bound to fall, too. They do get 2011 starter Jacobbi McDaniel back but D-line dominance was a trademark of last year's D and they'll have to re-establish that anew. At linebacker two starters are gone but #1 tackler Christian Jones (95 tackles) is back and backup Telvin Smith (8.5 tackles for loss) was the #3 tackler so he was as valuable as any starter last season. The secondary returns three starters and should continue their exemplary play and increase last year's 11 interceptions. So despite losing half its starters to the NFL the defense might be just as good this season provided the defensive line comes together.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Carson Beatty (38.3 yards) returns but excellent kicker Dustin Hopkins (25 of 30 FG last year) departs; replacing him will be redshirt freshman Robert Aguayo.
• Return Game:  Rashad Greene had 2 touchdown returns on punts and Tyler Hunter added another; they both averaged over 15 yards per return. On kickoffs Karlos Williams had the best average (26.2).
• Turnovers projection:  FSU should have better luck with fumbles this year and more interceptions on defense; the wild card is new QB Winston and whether he reduces or increases interceptions thrown.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #11          2012 Recruiting Rank: #8
Jimbo Fisher is more than keeping up in the recruiting game, with classes that lead the ACC and would hold their own in the SEC. Two defensive players are the 2013 class' standouts: linebacker Matthew Thomas from Miami and d-back Jalen Ramsey from Nashville are among the top few at their positions in the nation. Thomas wanted out of his letter of intent but he eventually reconsidered.

2012 Recap
Florida State kicked the year off with a cupcake in Murray State and they dominated 69-3; they would have dominated Savannah State even worse but the game was essentially called after 30 minutes of play due to weather at 55-0. They beat Wake Forest 52-0 with Clemson waiting. Given FSU's level of competition so far it's not surprising that the Tigers put up a pretty good fight, but FSU prevailed 49-37 and had the national title in their sights. But the next game at South Florida (30-17) was their worst performance, and you could see the loss of focus. Up 16-3 against North Carolina State in the 4th quarter, the focus dropped too low and they lost, 17-16. From there they ran through the rest of the ACC, all good teams, but prior to the ACC title game they hosted Florida and found out they really weren't one of the nation's very top teams as they lost 37-26. A week later they had to face the unorthodox Yellow Jackets and while the defense did a great job, the offense perhaps showed the dejection from the Florida loss in the 21-15 win. They kept their focus against Northern Illinois and won the Orange Bowl easily, 31-10.

Last year's prediction: We had FSU #5 last year and they did finish #6 in Strength; we projected an 11-1 regular-season record but the slip-up at NC State gave the Seminoles an extra loss.

2013 Outlook

FSU 2013 schedule & forecast
9/2	Mon	@	*Pittsburgh	92%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Nevada	99%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Bethune-Cookman	100%	W
9/28	Sat	@	*Boston College	82%	W
10/5	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	95%	W
10/19	Sat	@	*Clemson	50%	L
10/26	Sat	vs.	*N.C. State	96%	W
11/2	Sat	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	68%	W
11/9	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	95%	W
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	93%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	Idaho	99%	W
11/30	Sat	@	Florida	51%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 10%

FSU's season looks like 10 pretty clear wins and two tossup games that will determine whether the 'Noles compete for the ACC and national titles. This assumes that they avoid upsets like NC State last year, Wake Forest the year before, etc. Miami looks like the only other really tough game and they have the Canes at home, so we focus on the two key contests.

First, Clemson on October 19th should determine which team represents the Atlantic division in the ACC title game. Then on November 30th—if FSU has made it this far undefeated—the game at Florida could have national title implications. Though we rank the Seminoles higher than both teams they're on the road in both games.

This makes the straight-up estimate conflict with the cumulative estimate which doesn't pick winners game-by-game. So basically the Seminoles are two coin flips away from undefeated which should imply a 1 in 4 chance, but given their propensity for getting upset somewhere along the line the 10% chance listed above seems reasonable. Split the two games and most likely they either miss out on the ACC title game, or have a late loss to the Gators which kills their national title dreams.

For our bowl projections, however, we go by our rankings and that means we put FSU in the Orange Bowl despite having them "losing" to Clemson. So it's back to Miami for the Seminoles, where they might face Michigan since the Orange Bowl has first at-large pick ahead of the Sugar and Fiesta.

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