SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
| Florida Gators (SEC #6; East #3) |
 #16 |
2012 Results |
AP #9 USA #10 | Strength:#11 Success:#2 Overall:#4 |
| Record: 11-2 | Bowl: Lost to Louisville 33-23 (Sugar) |
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| 2013 Outlook |
Picks: AP #10 | USA #10 | Lindy's #12 | Athlon #13 | Steele #12 |
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| Record: 8-4 | Bowl: Gator (Eligibility odds: 93%) |
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When a team has a great defense and poor offense it's hard to pick who they're going to beat or lose to, since all of their games tend to be close. Florida might have another great year but their schedule is so tough we'd guess their record won't be as good as last year.
| Offense 4 ret. starters |
2012 Scoring Offense: #76 (raw) #50 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #61 (adjusted) |
Florida didn't have a great offense last year and this season doesn't look any different.
| Passing Game |
2012 Passing Rank: #119 (raw) #116 (adjusted) | 2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #107 |
| 2013 Projected Passing Rank: #119 (adjusted) |
2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #104 |
Florida's passing game was amazingly tepid last year and if it's possible it might be even worse. Jeff Driskel (1,646 yards, 12 TDs, 5 int) is back but three of the top four receivers are gone. Jordan Reed was #1 with 559 yards and he departs, but #2 Quinton Dunbar (383) returns. Andre Debose (432 yards in 2011) was set to be back but tore his ACL. Florida allowed 39 sacks last year vs. just 288 attempts, which is really, really bad but this year should be at least a little better. The passing game will be weak unless the focus of the offense shifts, and Florida is a running team these days.
| Rushing | 2012 Rushing Rank: #39 (raw) #25 (adjusted) | 2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #37 (adj.) |
Mike Gillislee (1,152 yards, 10 TDs) leaves the backfield, so Matt Jones (275 yards) will be the starting RB. QB Driskel was #2 with 413 yards and three of four others who had 100+ return. So there are numerous options there to replace their main guy. The offensive line returns Jonotthan Harrison and Jon Halapio, but Halapio will be out early and Chaz Green is now out for the year with a shoulder injury. Max Garcia, who started at Maryland, is eligible this year however. The ground game will still be strong and drive the offense but may be down a bit for losing Gillislee.
| 2012 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #5 Pass Defense per-game: #6 Per-attempt: #1 | ||
| Defense 4 ret. starters |
'12 Scoring Defense: #5 (raw) #2 (adjusted) | '12 sacks: #31 | '12 picks: #3 |
| '13 Projected Scoring Defense: #5 (adjusted) |
'13 sacks: #30 | '13 picks: #13 | |
Florida's defense won most of their games for them, and despite quite a few personnel losses it will still be strong. The defensive line loses three starters including Shariff Floyd (10 tackles for loss), but the Gators get 2011 starter Ronald Powell back. At linebacker #1 tackler Josh Evans (83 tackles) is gone and Antonio Morrison will miss a few games serving suspension for a couple of off-season incidents. The secondary was arguably the best in the nation as Florida was #1 in per-attempt pass defense. Matt Elam (9 tackles for loss, 4 interceptions) is gone but Marcus Roberson (12 pass breakups) returns, and 2011 starter Cody Riggs is back. So despite losing upward of 7 starters, the two they get back from '11 will help keep the defense almost as tight.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Punter Kyle Christie (45.8 yards) is back but kicker Caleb Sturgis (24 of 28 field goals) is gone; his replacement will be senior Brad Phillips or redshirt freshman Austin Hardin.
- Return Game: Andre Debose averaged 28.3 yards on kickoffs with 1 touchdown, and 9.3 yards on punt returns. He's out this year with an ACL tear, so Marcus Roberson will probably handle the most punts and Loucheiz Purifoy (23.9) will take kickoffs.
- Turnovers projection: Florida has 20 interceptions on defense and it's unlikely they'll match that as 2/3 of the players who got an interception last year are gone.
Coaching/Recruiting 2013 Recruiting Rank: #5 2012 Recruiting Rank: #6
Another great class for Will Muschamp; over the last two years only a handful of teams have recruited as well as Florida. Vernon Hargreaves III from Tampa is the #1 rated cornerback recruit in the nation. Despite being #5 in the nation he Gators are only #3 in the SEC.
2012 Recap
Florida beat more of the very best teams in the nation than
any other team last year, and it wasn't even close. They beat five teams that finished in the AP top 25: #5 Texas A&M, #8 South Carolina, #10 Florida State, #14 LSU, and #23 Vanderbilt. They also beat 8-5 Bowling Green and 9-4 Louisiana-Lafayette. And they did pretty much all of it with defense, beating Texas
A&M 20-17, LSU 17-6, Vanderbilt 31-17, Bowling Green 27-14, and LA-Lafayette 27-20. The win at Florida State might have been their best on
offense, as they scored 37 on the road against one of the nation's best
defenses; the South Carolina win (44-11) had several offensive scores set up by turnovers. The Gators losses were largely due to poor offense, as they fell to Georgia 17-9 and gave up a pick-6 right away to Louisville before falling 33-23.
Last year's prediction: We ranked Florida #23, and in the SEC being #23 doesn't get you a very good win-loss projection; we had the Gators 7-5. We foresaw a top 25 quality defense but didn't imagine they'd have the #2 scoring defense and that made all the difference.
2013 Outlook
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Florida 2013 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/31 | Sat | vs. | Toledo | 89% | W | |||
| 9/7 | Sat | @ | Miami (Florida) | 38% | L | |||
| 9/21 | Sat | vs. | *Tennessee | 83% | W | |||
| 9/28 | Sat | @ | *Kentucky | 80% | W | |||
| 10/5 | Sat | vs. | *Arkansas | 95% | W | |||
| 10/12 | Sat | @ | *LSU | 42% | L | |||
| 10/19 | Sat | @ | *Missouri | 58% | W | |||
| 11/2 | Sat | N | *Georgia | 28% | L | |||
| 11/9 | Sat | vs. | *Vanderbilt | 74% | W | |||
| 11/16 | Sat | @ | *South Carolina | 39% | L | |||
| 11/23 | Sat | vs. | Georgia Southern | 92% | W | |||
| 11/30 | Sat | vs. | Florida State | 49% | L | |||
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Straight up: 7-5 Cume: 8-4 Bowl eligible: 93%
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This year Florida's schedule is murder again; they don't play Texas A&M but they still have Florida State and add Miami. They have LSU and South Carolina both on the road and the usual 'neutral' game vs. Georgia. We have them losing their five toughest games, hence our 7-5 forecast, but many of those are close so the cumulative projection is 8-4.
Three starters (LB Antonio Morrison, RG Jon Halapio, and RB Matt Jones) will miss the Toledo opener and probably the Miami game, too, meaning the Gators travel to face the Hurricanes shorthanded. Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas shouldn't be too big of a concern, but LSU in Baton Rouge is. They follow this by playing at Missouri which is no gimme, and then they battle the Bulldogs in Jacksonville; we take Georgia this year and we see it as Florida's toughest game. South Carolina in Columbia is yet another huge game, and after Georgia Southern (no slouch of an FCS team at 10-4) they host Florida State.
Last year Florida won four of their five tough games, beating Texas A&M, LSU, South Carolina, and FSU, with two of the four on the road. This year three of the tough games are on the road (Georgia is neutral both seasons). The Gators have a decent chance in every "loss" so another great season is a possibility. With this schedule, a 1-loss Florida team has a great shot at being in the national championship but, as they found out last year, winning your division is a necessity.
If Florida is the #6 SEC team they would go to the Chik-Fil-A Bowl, but the SEC situation is muddy and full of optional selections so we figure the Gator Bowl will take them. They'd face a Big Ten team, possibly Nebraska.
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