SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
| BYU Cougars (Independent #2) |
 #31 |
2012 Results |
AP NR USA NR | Strength:#23 Success:#40 Overall:#23 |
| Record: 8-5 | Bowl: Beat San Diego St. 23-6 (Poinsettia) |
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| 2013 Outlook |
Picks: AP #43 | USA #36 | Lindy's #39 | Athlon #43 | Steele #34 |
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| Record: 8-4 | Bowl: Kraft Fight Hunger (Eligibility odds: 95%) |
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BYU made its name deploying a West Coast offense with gaudy passing stats; currently they're a defense-minded squad that puts up average point totals. So far it's worked for them.
| Offense 7 ret. starters |
2012 Scoring Offense: #65 (raw) #57 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #40 (adjusted) |
BYU's new offensive coordinator decided the already-fast-tempo BYU offense should be faster. About half the gain in scoring we project is due to that.
| Passing Game |
2012 Passing Rank: #50 (raw) #42 (adjusted) | 2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #61 |
| 2013 Projected Passing Rank: #29 (adjusted) |
2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #75 |
QB Riley Nelson (2,011 yards, 13 TDs, 13 int last year) is gone, as is backup James Lark (778 yards, 8 TDs, 2 int) so Taysom Hill (425 yards, 4:2 as a freshman) will take over. He steps into a pretty good situation this season as every significant pass catcher from last year is back. #1 Cody Hoffman (100 receptions, 1,248 yards, 11 TDs) was and will be the go-to guy, and six others had over 125 yards and all are back. The #2 had only 315 yards, so someone has to step up and take heat off Hoffman, but you can't complain about having everyone back. We look for a better passing game as last year's group was plagued with injury and inconsistency and there will be more reps in the faster offense.
| Rushing | 2012 Rushing Rank: #67 (raw) #65 (adjusted) | 2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #57 (adj.) |
Jamaal Williams (775 yards, 12 TDs) led the Cougars in rushing as a freshman, and in all, 5 of the 7 who had over 100 yards are back. One of those is QB Taysom Hill (#2 w/336), another is fullback Michael Alisa (#3 with 222). The offensive line returns Ryker Matthews who started every game, and Manaaki Vaitai and Solomone Kafu who both started about 3/4-time. Call it 2 1/2 starters back, so the line could be a bit weaker, but extra plays from the faster tempo offense once again should insure they're on the plus side.
| 2012 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #12 Pass Defense per-game: #3 Per-attempt: #19 | ||
| Defense 3 ret. starters |
'12 Scoring Defense: #4 (raw) #8 (adjusted) | '12 sacks: #49 | '12 picks: #55 |
| '13 Projected Scoring Defense: #20 (adjusted) |
'13 sacks: #39 | '13 picks: #82 | |
BYU's defense was pretty amazing last year, and didn't get the credit nationally that it deserved (being an independent means getting overlooked sometimes). This year it will probably drop quite a bit but could remain in the top 25. The defensive line is the hardest hit. Last year's rushing defense ranked #2 in raw per-game yardage, and #12 when adjusted for their opponents, but all three starters are gone up front including high 1st-round draft pick Ezekiel Ansah (4.5 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss, 9 pass breakups). At linebacker they lose two starters including #1 tackler Brandon Ogletree (102 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss) but two return including Kyle Van Noy (13 sacks, 9 tackles for loss). The secondary returns just one starter, #2 tackler Daniel Sorenson. Jordan Johnson (15 pass breakups) was back, too, but a knee injury in camp took him out. Those are some stiff losses but BYU normally has good depth and they get back 2010-2011 defensive line starter Eathyn Manumaleuna and key 2010 backup Austen Jorgensen at linebacker. They'll probably still be good, just not great, and they have to deal with the tempo increase on offense; luckily they're used to it for the most part.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Justin Sorenson (6 of 12 FG last year) is back after an injury-plagued year at kicker, while punter Riley Stephenson (45.4 average, also 4 of 6 FG) is gone. The new punter will be Scott Arellano.
- Return Game: WR J.D. Falslev returned both kickoffs (26.0 average) and punts (9.5 average) last year and he is back for his senior year. He had a touchdown return in 2011 (punt), as did fellow WR Cody Hoffman (on a kickoff).
- Turnovers projection: Not much change is forecast.
Coaching/Recruiting 2013 Recruiting Rank: #61 2012 Recruiting Rank: #74
So far the independent scene isn't hurting the Cougars in terms of recruiting; in the Mountain West they did about the same. Bronco Mendenhall has said that the schedule played as an independent helps them with recruiting, and that may be paying off.
2012 Recap
BYU is by tradition a passing team with a powerful offense, but last year none of that was true and in fact, they were a lock-down defensive team. They beat Washington State 30-6 and started 2-0 but they lost to Utah, 24-21. When they lost to Boise State 7-6 people wondered what the hell was going on...that game should be an offensive shootout! But the low score was BYU's fault on both sides of the ball. They shut out Hawaii and beat Utah State in another classic, 6-3. They nearly beat Notre Dame, falling 17-14, and held Georgia Tech to 17 points in beating the Yellow Jackets. They finished 7-5 and then held San Diego State to 6 points in the Poinsettia Bowl win..
Last year's prediction: We underranked BYU at #42 but overestimated their record to be 8-4. We did get three of the losses right: Utah, Boise State, and Notre Dame.
2013 Outlook
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BYU 2013 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/31 | Sat | @ | Virginia | 73% | W | |||
| 9/7 | Sat | vs. | Texas | 22% | L | |||
| 9/21 | Sat | vs. | Utah | 80% | W | |||
| 9/27 | Fri | vs. | M. Tennessee St. | 89% | W | |||
| 10/4 | Fri | @ | Utah State | 48% | L | |||
| 10/12 | Sat | vs. | Georgia Tech | 61% | W | |||
| 10/19 | Sat | @ | Houston | 85% | W | |||
| 10/25 | Fri | vs. | Boise State | 72% | W | |||
| 11/9 | Sat | @ | Wisconsin | 35% | L | |||
| 11/16 | Sat | vs. | Idaho State | 100% | W | |||
| 11/23 | Sat | @ | Notre Dame | 30% | L | |||
| 11/30 | Sat | @ | Nevada | 89% | W | |||
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Straight up: 8-4 Cume: 8-4 Bowl eligible: 95%
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BYU has a tough schedule, but after conceding the games to the tough opponents (Texas, Wisconsin, Notre Dame) it doesn't look so bad, and BYU should be able to take care of business and go to a bowl game at the very least.
Virginia probably won't be that tough even at home, and the Cougars should pay back Utah for last season's loss. They should be favored at home over MTSU, obviously. Utah State on the road is probably going to be just as close as last year—hopefully a bit more exciting too. Then they face Georgia Tech and their new defensive line will get a huge test, but we're betting they pass the test.
Houston and Boise State we have as wins, too. It's hard to know how good Houston will be this year, and Boise is going to be good but BYU is at home. Idaho State is a true gimme and Nevada is probably down this year.
So that's 8 wins, or 9 if they beat Utah State. A lot of the teams they face vary a lot year to year (Houston) or game to game (Georgia Tech) so there might be some crazy results. But 8-4 looks possible and who knows if Texas, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame will live up to their billing on that particular gameday?
BYU goes to the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl if they reach eligibility this year. They'd face the Pac-12 #6 team which, assuming two BCS teams from that conference, might be UCLA.
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