SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
| Baylor Bears (Big Twelve #5/6) |
 #28 |
2012 Results |
AP #26 USA #28 | Strength:#16 Success:#25 Overall:#17 |
| Record: 8-5 | Bowl: Beat UCLA 49-26 (Holiday) |
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| 2013 Outlook |
Picks: AP #27 | USA #29 | Lindy's #19 | Athlon #36 | Steele #25 |
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| Record: 7-5 | Bowl: Pinstripe (Eligibility odds: 90%) |
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Art Briles hopes to maintain a winning program at Baylor, and it looks like he will succeed.
| Offense 5 ret. starters |
2012 Scoring Offense: #5 (raw) #4 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #18 (adjusted) |
Without Nick Florence and Terrance Williams the passing game will slide, but the ground game keeps the offense at a high level.
| Passing Game |
2012 Passing Rank: #4 (raw) #5 (adjusted) | 2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #24 |
| 2013 Projected Passing Rank: #43 (adjusted) |
2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #30 |
Last year we expected the passing game, #4 under RGIII, to stay in the top 10 and instead it remained in the top 5 under Nick Florence (4,309 yards, 33 TDs, 13 int). This year is different, however, as Florence had started almost an entire season previously and Bryce Petty (97 yards, 1:0 last year) has 14 career attempts. The team also loses top receiver Terrance Williams (1,832 yards, 12 TDs) and #3 Lanear Sampson (646 yards, 6 TDs). They do have Tevin Reece (957, 9) back along with Levi Norwood (487) so there's a good base. Look for a period of adjustment but still a well above-average passing game.
| Rushing | 2012 Rushing Rank: #14 (raw) #8 (adjusted) | 2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #9 (adj.) |
Controversy has followed Lache Seastrunk (1,012 yards, 7 TDs) all his career and he invited some by promising to win the Heisman this year. It's not impossible, as he really came on at the end of the year and averaged 7.7 yards per carry. Glasco Martin (889 yards, 15 TDs) provides the counterpunch. ex-QB Florence added 568 (10 TDs) and Jared Salubi, also gone, had 464. The offensive line returns three starters: Cyril Richardson, Spencer Drango, and Troy Baker. Baker will miss the first three games so the team might get off to a slow start offensively. Seastrunk probably won't win the Heisman but he'll probably have a Heisman-like season, and with Martin a senior the Baylor ground game will be just as strong as last year.
| 2012 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #66 Pass Defense per-game: #123 Per-attempt: #56 | ||
| Defense 7 ret. starters |
'12 Scoring Defense: #114 (raw) #80 (adjusted) | '12 sacks: #80 | '12 picks: #13 |
| '13 Projected Scoring Defense: #68 (adjusted) |
'13 sacks: #52 | '13 picks: #9 | |
Baylor's pass defense was truly porous last year on a per-game basis, even after correcting for the pass-happy teams they played. But interestingly on a per-play basis it wasn't that bad. The rushing defense was just average; the two starters back on the D-line include Chris McAllister (6 sacks). Both linebackers return to the 4-2-5, and they were the team's top tacklers, Bryce Hagar (124 tackles) and Eddie Lackey (104 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss). The secondary has three starters back including Ahmad Dixon (#3 tackler w/102) and Joe Williams (12 pass breakups). The defense is going to resemble last year's model—vulnerable to big plays, but lots of interceptions—but with a better pass rush and a step up overall.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Both kicker Aaron Jones (16 of 27 FGs last year) and punter Spencer Roth (43.8 average) are back.
- Return Game: Wide receivers Levi Norwood (10.4 punt return average) and Antwan Goodley (22.6 on kickoffs) are both back.
- Turnovers projection: Naturally with so much passing going on, we worry about the new quarterbacks potentially having considerably more picks than Florence last year.
Coaching/Recruiting 2013 Recruiting Rank: #34 2012 Recruiting Rank: #41
Another pretty decent class for Art Briles, ranking in the middle of the pack for the Big Twelve. WR Robbie Rhodes of Fort Worth is probably the prize catch and he could break into the starting lineup as early as this year.
2012 Recap
Baylor won three straight to kick off the season but allowing 42 points to ULM was a warning. They lost four straight after that, giving up 70 to West Virginia, 49 to TCU, 56 to Texas, and 35 to Iowa State. After splitting with Kansas and Oklahoma they were 4-5 but blew away undefeated Kansas State, 52-24 and that gave them the confidence they needed. They topped Texas Tech in overtime, 52-45, beat Oklahoma State 41-34, and humbled UCLA in the Holiday Bowl 49-26 to finish strong at 8-5.
Last year's prediction: We picked Baylor to be 6-6 in the regular season and had all of the games correct but one until the Kansas State game, after which Baylor played at a much better level. That push at the end carried their Strength ranking into the top 20, quite a bit better than our #31 forecast.
2013 Outlook
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Baylor 2013 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/31 | Sat | vs. | Wofford | 90% | W | |||
| 9/7 | Sat | vs. | Buffalo | 89% | W | |||
| 9/21 | Sat | vs. | Louisiana-Monroe | 75% | W | |||
| 10/5 | Sat | vs. | *West Virginia | 88% | W | |||
| 10/12 | Sat | @ | *Kansas State | 41% | L | |||
| 10/19 | Sat | vs. | *Iowa State | 76% | W | |||
| 10/26 | Sat | @ | *Kansas | 84% | W | |||
| 11/9 | Sat | vs. | *Oklahoma | 48% | L | |||
| 11/16 | Sat | N | *Texas Tech | 69% | W | |||
| 11/23 | Sat | @ | *Oklahoma State | 16% | L | |||
| 11/30 | Sat | @ | *TCU | 34% | L | |||
| 12/7 | Sat | vs. | *Texas | 25% | L | |||
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Straight up: 7-5 Cume: 7-5 Bowl eligible: 90%
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Baylor should have four wins to start the season in four home games. Wofford, obviously, and Buffalo. Louisiana-Monroe was a tough win last year on the road and West Virginia was a shootout loss, but the Bears should beat both teams this time around. They travel to Kansas State and the Wildcats will want revenge in Manhattan, KS. But Baylor returns home and should get their own revenge on Iowa State and beat Kansas too. A 6-1 start is probably expected but 7-0 isn't farfetched and even 9-0 isn't impossible.
Oklahoma at home is a tossup game, and after Texas Tech the Bears face their three toughest tests: Oklahoma State and TCU on the road, and Texas at home. All three look like losses from here, but if the Bears have a strong push at the end of this season like they did last season anything is possible.
But most likely they finish 7-5 again and as the #5 or #6 Big Twelve team (they are so close with Kansas State it's hardly a spot) they go to the Pinstripe Bowl to face the #4 AAC team, maybe SMU.
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