SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
| Auburn Tigers (SEC #12; West #6) |
 #51 |
2012 Results |
AP NR USA NR | Strength:#73 Success:#98 Overall:#74 |
| Record: 3-9 | Bowl: None | ||
| 2013 Outlook |
Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #65 | Athlon #42 | Steele #42 |
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| Record: 5-7 | Bowl: None (Eligibility odds: 38%) |
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We think Auburn will be a lot better than last year, and Athlon and Phil Steele agree. A bowl game is within reach this season, even in the tough SEC. A couple of breaking news items affected this review; hopefully thing remain reasonably stable.
| Offense 6 ret. starters |
2012 Scoring Offense: #115 (raw) #98 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #76 (adjusted) |
Gus Malzahn will amp the offense with speed as the Tigers return to the spread.
| Passing Game |
2012 Passing Rank: #117 (raw) #113 (adjusted) | 2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #111 |
| 2013 Projected Passing Rank: #113 (adjusted) |
2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #102 |
Kiehl Frazier, Auburn's most productive quarterback with 753 yards (2 TDs, 8 int), is moving to safety—and that's probably a good thing for the offense, as his 8 interceptions and 53% completion rate held back the passing game. Jonathan Wallace (720 yards, 4 TD, 4 int) will vie with JUCO Nick Marshall (formerly a D-back at Georgia) for the starting slot [instant update: Marshall was named starter minutes ago]. The Tigers lose their only receiver of note from last year, Emory Blake (789 yards), with tight end C.J. Uzomah (136 yards) the top returnee. The offensive line couldn't protect the QBs last year (37 sacks) and that should improve but probably won't be close to solved. Despite moving to a spread Malzahn probably won't use the pass any more than Chizik did so we see mostly the same meager output.
| Rushing | 2012 Rushing Rank: #80 (raw) #70 (adjusted) | 2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #45 (adj.) |
Gus Malzahn's spread at Arkansas State—his sole head coaching gig—ran the ball 57% of the time, almost as much as Auburn's offense did last year. In 2011 as offensive coordinator here he ran the ball 65% of the time. So we see a continued emphasis on running the ball with Tre Mason (1,002 yards, 8 TDs) back and Onterio McCalebb (570, 6) gone. Two others had over 150 yards and one, QB Wallace, is back. The offensive line should be in better shape this year as four starters are back: juniors Reese Dismukes and Chad Slade, and sophomores Greg Robinson and Patrick Miller. The improved ground game should pace the offense's progress.
| 2012 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #99 Pass Defense per-game: #17 Per-attempt: #40 | ||
| Defense 7 ret. starters |
'12 Scoring Defense: #68 (raw) #46 (adjusted) | '12 sacks: #78 | '12 picks: #124 |
| '13 Projected Scoring Defense: #53 (adjusted) |
'13 sacks: #73 | '13 picks: #122 | |
Auburn's rushing defense needs a boost and with three starters back on the defensive line they might get it. Though Corey Lemonier (5.5 sacks) is gone, Dee Ford (6 sacks) is back. At linebacker two starters are gone including #1 tackler Daren Bates (94 tackles). The team's #3 tackler (Jermaine Whitehead) is one of three starters who return to the secondary, but the #2, Demetruce McNeal, was recently (instant update #2!) kicked off the team for pot charges. The defense only had two interceptions all year and that has to go up—based on the decent pass break-up numbers we project a healthy 5 to 8 or so, nothing outrageous. Overall the defense should be better but the hurry-up offensive tempo offsets the gains, leaving the scoring D worse.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Both kicker Cody Parker (11 of 14 FGs) and punter Steven Clark (39.8 average) are back.
- Return Game: Onterio McCalebb was the main kickoff returner and he had 1 touchdown to go with his 22.7 average. Tre Mason had a touchdown return in 2011, but since he's busy as the feature RB, WR Trovon Reed may get the call. Quan Bray (8.5 average) will return punts.
- Turnovers projection: Interceptions are the team's friend this year. Not only do we think the quarterbacks will throw fewer this year, but almost anything the defense does is a bonus after getting only 2 last year.
Coaching/Recruiting 2013 Recruiting Rank: #12 2012 Recruiting Rank: #16
Gus Malzahn has been a sought-after commodity for quite a while as he worked offensive magic at Tulsa and Auburn as OC, then at Arkansas State as head coach. Now back at Auburn he didn't miss a beat in recruiting, maybe because he's familiar there, maybe because it's just Auburn. Either way the class is borderline top ten and therefore about average for the SEC these days. It ranked a bit higher before QB/WR Jason Smith of Mobile left for prep school. Defensive lineman Montravious Adams from Vienna, GA is one of the class's top prizes.
2012 Recap
Gene Chizik needed to have a good season to keep his job and he didn't get it. Though Auburn played well in Atlanta against Clemson, losing 26-19, they were beaten 28-10 by Mississippi State and needed overtime to beat upstart Louisiana-Monroe 31-28. Then the heart of the SEC schedule hit and the losses mounted, interrupted only by a lopsided late non-conference game (New Mexico State 42-7) and the traditional FCS win (Alabama A&M 51-7). In between those two they were shut out by Georgia 38-0 and after lost to Alabama 49-0. Chizik was fired soon thereafter.
Last year's prediction: We thought Auburn would only drop from 8-5 to 6-6 or so, though the game-by-game slate was a warning at 4-8. There, we picked wins over ULM, Ole Miss, New Mexico State, and Alabama A&M; Mississippi beat Auburn 41-20 in the only incorrect outcome.
2013 Outlook
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Auburn 2013 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/31 | Sat | vs. | Washington State | 58% | W | |||
| 9/7 | Sat | vs. | Arkansas State | 75% | W | |||
| 9/14 | Sat | vs. | *Mississippi State | 43% | W | |||
| 9/21 | Sat | @ | *LSU | 12% | L | |||
| 10/5 | Sat | vs. | *Mississippi | 21% | L | |||
| 10/12 | Sat | vs. | Western Carolina | 99% | W | |||
| 10/19 | Sat | @ | *Texas A&M | 3% | L | |||
| 10/26 | Sat | vs. | Florida Atlantic | 88% | W | |||
| 11/2 | Sat | @ | *Arkansas | 63% | W | |||
| 11/9 | Sat | @ | *Tennessee | 36% | L | |||
| 11/16 | Sat | vs. | *Georgia | 11% | L | |||
| 11/30 | Sat | vs. | *Alabama | 3% | L | |||
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Straight up: 5-7 Cume: 5-7 Bowl eligible: 38%
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We're now forecasting a 5-7 record for the Tigers, but this time the game-by-game record doesn't contradict it. There are five games where Auburn should be favored and one tossup, so the top bar chart shows 6-6 a next-most-likely outcome, and the odds of bowl eligibility are a decent 4 in 10.
Washington State and Arkansas State at home should be wins—interesting that Malzahn faces his old team so quickly—and then Mississippi State, also at home, is a close call. Beyond that, it's much the same situation as last year with an FCS break (Western Carolina) and an outmatched smaller-conference foe (Florida Atlantic) providing fodder for the hope of bowl eligibility.
Other key games are Arkansas and Tennessee, both on the road. Depending on how these programs bounced back this year both could be wins or losses. We give Auburn the win over the Razorbacks but not the Volunteers.
It looks like the Tigers can reach 6-6, but they might fall just short. Let's see how much magic Malzahn has in him.
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