SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125
| Arizona State Sun Devils (Pac-12 #2; South #1) |
 #8 |
2012 Results |
AP NR USA #33 | Strength:#15 Success:#52 Overall:#21 |
| Record: 8-5 | Bowl: Beat Navy 62-28 (Fight Hunger) |
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| 2013 Outlook |
Picks: AP #30 | USA #32 | Lindy's #37 | Athlon #23 | Steele #22 |
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| Record: 9-3 | Bowl: Rose (Eligibility odds: 99%) |
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Last year we downgraded ASU and instead they got better. This year we have them in the top ten, should they start worrying?
| Offense 6 ret. starters |
2012 Scoring Offense: #13 (raw) #13 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #6 (adjusted) |
Todd Graham overhauled the offense last year and this season he hopes to fine-tune it.
| Passing Game |
2012 Passing Rank: #44 (raw) #41 (adjusted) | 2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #113 |
| 2013 Projected Passing Rank: #24 (adjusted) |
2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #110 |
Taylor Kelly (3,039 yards, 29 TDs, 9 int) had a great year running Todd Graham's system; he returns with backup Michael Eubank (330, 4:3) and six of last year's top 8 receivers. Tight end Chris Coyle led with 696 (5 TDs) and #3 D.J. Foster (533 yards) is back, too, while Rashad Ross (610) departs. The one problem area is QB protection (37 sacks allowed) but both QBs should make progress this year.
| Rushing | 2012 Rushing Rank: #25 (raw) #28 (adjusted) | 2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #22 (adj.) |
Three of ASU's four top rushers return: #1 Marion Grice (679 yards, 11 TDs) is back, #2 Cameron Marshall (583 yards, 9 TDs) is not. #3 was QB Taylor Kelly with 516 net yards, and #4 D.J. Foster (493) is also back. Backup QB Michael Eubank added 223. The offensive line returns three full-time starters from last year, Evan Finkenberg, Cody Koebensky, and Jamil Douglas. Losing Marshall hurts but there is plenty of talent as Deantre Lewis (539 yards in 2010) returns to RB and might recapture the form he had before a gunshot wound derailed his career.
| 2012 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #84 Pass Defense per-game: #2 Per-attempt: #11 | ||
| Defense 8 ret. starters |
'12 Scoring Defense: #44 (raw) #32 (adjusted) | '12 sacks: #2 | '12 picks: #8 |
| '13 Projected Scoring Defense: #22 (adjusted) |
'13 sacks: #1 | '13 picks: #3 | |
Last season the pass defense was awesome as the Devils were top ten in sacks and interceptions, but the rushing defense was the weak point. This year the defensive line is solid as it returns all three starters including DT Will Sutton (13 sacks, 10.5 tackles for loss). Bolstering last year's #2 pass rush was Carl Bradford (11.5 sacks, 9 tackles for loss) who plays the hybrid LB/DE "Devil" position. The LB corps does lose #1 tackler Brandon McGee (113 tackles, 6.5 sacks) but Chris Young (12 tackles for loss) is also back. The secondary is without Keelan Johnson (5 interceptions) but two starters are back including Osahon Irabor (13 pass breakups) and they get transfer Marion Pollard who started at Eastern Michigan. The rush defense should improve and even if the pass D slips a bit they should come up with just as many big plays as they have our projected #1 pass rush.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Jon Mora (9 of 12 FGs) should reclaim the placekicking job but Alex Garoutte (6 of 11) might yet handle PATs where he is nearly automatic; both might lose their jobs to true freshman kicker Zane Gonzales. Another true freshman, Matt Haack, is set to take over as punter from Josh Hubner (47.1 average last year, #2 in the FBS).
- Return Game: Jamal Miles (21.8 on kickoffs, 8.8 on punts) was last year's main return man and he's gone along with Rashad Ross who had a kickoff return touchdown. Robert Nelson, a former starter at CB, could be the go-to guy here.
- Turnovers projection: We don't see much change here. Even though we move the defense up in our interceptions ranking we project fewer than last year's 21 picks because that's a hard amount to match.
Coaching/Recruiting 2013 Recruiting Rank: #24 2012 Recruiting Rank: #45
Todd Graham remains in the same job for the first time in three years as his 2nd season with the Sun Devils begins. His 2nd recruiting class is naturally a lot better than his first during the transition year and ranks right in the middle of the Pac-12 which recruited very well this year as a conference.
2012 Recap
In retrospect Arizona State's schedule was bound to result in the
kind of year they had—a great start, then a rocky road to the finish.
With Northern Arizona (a 63-6 win) from the FCS and 2-10 Illinois (45-14) up front, and three
disappointing Pac-12 teams (Utah, Cal, Colorado), the Sun Devils didn't play a winning FBS
team in their first 6 games. They fell 24-20 to Missouri, who went 5-7 in
their first year in the SEC. So even though they started 5-1, the tough teams were yet to come and
they dropped four games in a row, three to ranked teams Oregon, UCLA, and Oregon State and one to
pre-season #1 USC 38-31. They recovered to beat Washington State 46-7 and finally
beat another bowl team as they defeated rival Arizona 41-34. The 62-48 bowl game win over Navy was one of their best on offense and pointed to a better 2013—if they can stop the run better.
Last year's prediction: Due to returning just 8 starters we downgraded last year's team to #62 and projected a 5-7 record; instead the defense improved a lot and they went 7-5 in the regular season.
2013 Outlook
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ASU 2013 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/7 | Sat | vs. | Sacramento State | 100% | W | |||
| 9/14 | Sat | vs. | Wisconsin | 78% | W | |||
| 9/21 | Sat | @ | *Stanford | 54% | W | |||
| 9/28 | Sat | vs. | *USC | 73% | W | |||
| 10/5 | Sat | N | Notre Dame | 66% | W | |||
| 10/12 | Sat | vs. | *Colorado | 99% | W | |||
| 10/19 | Sat | vs. | *Washington | 66% | W | |||
| 10/31 | Thu | @ | *Washington State | 84% | W | |||
| 11/9 | Sat | @ | *Utah | 87% | W | |||
| 11/16 | Sat | vs. | *Oregon State | 61% | W | |||
| 11/23 | Sat | @ | *UCLA | 58% | W | |||
| 11/30 | Sat | vs. | *Arizona | 82% | W | |||
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Straight up: 12-0 Cume: 9-3 Odds of 12-0: 3%
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Arizona State plays a tough schedule but we have them favored in every game. There are so many less-than-certain wins that the cumulative estimate calls for a 9-3 record and their odds of actually going 12-0 are just 3%.
After a gimme against Sacramento State the Sun Devils face Wisconsin, Stanford, USC, and Notre Dame all in a row—that's both of last year's Rose Bowl teams, last year's pre-season #1, and last year's BCS runner-up. But we think they can win them all. Or rather, each game looks like a win, but winning all four is just a 1 in 5 proposition. The Badgers they get at home but Stanford is a road game and possibly the toughest of the four. Getting USC at home gives them an advantage but they were beat 38-21 last year. The Notre Dame game is in Arlington. If the Sun Devils can go 3-1 here they're probably as good as we think, but 2-2 would be nothing to be ashamed about. If they aren't any better than last year's squad there's a chance to go 0-4 here and the hope for a great season is pretty much shot.
The rest of the Pac-12 schedule is littered with landmines like Washington, Oregon State, and UCLA, with the first two games at home and the latter on the road. They get rival Arizona at home this year and avoid playing Oregon altogether unless they make it to the Pac-12 title game. Though we don't really expect ASU to go 12-0, going by our rankings they are the top team in the South and would face the Ducks for the ACC title, lose, and be relegated to the Rose Bowl where they'd face Ohio State (or someone else like Michigan if OSU makes the national title game).
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