Monday, January 7: BCS Championship in Miami, FL at 8:30 pm EST
#1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) vs. #3 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1)
A classic matchup. Notre Dame is chasing their first national title since 1988, while Alabama is going for their 3rd in 4 years.
Vegas line/spread: Alabama by 9 1/2 (over/under 40 1/2)
Poll rankings aren't always a prediction of which team would win a head-to-head contest, but rather a reflection of the season a team has had. In this case, although Notre Dame is a near-unanimous #1, Alabama opened a 9 point favorite and the line has moved between 9.5 and 10 ever since. The low over/under reflects the great defenses—and often less-than-overwhelming offenses—of the teams involved.
Alabama is neck-and-neck with Oregon for the #1 spot in our Strength power rating while Notre Dame, despite being 12-0, is just #8 as the power rating doesn't consider wins and losses, just score margin. When the teams' game performances are compared the Crimson Tide win almost 3 of 4 contests. Against the spread things are roughly 50/50.
Strength power rating: Alabama 21, Notre Dame 11 by Median rating: Alabama 20-11
This game will feature the #1 and #2 scoring defense in college football. In raw terms—points yielded divided by games played—the Irish are #1 and the Tide #2. But when corrected for the offenses the teams have played Alabama is #1 and Notre Dame #2. Either way, the offenses are probably going to have trouble on Monday night.
But Alabama's offense is much better than Notre Dame's, and that's the difference here. The Tide have the #11 scoring offense, while Notre Dame's offense is just #48, not far above average for the FBS. The result is about a 10-point estimated margin for Alabama, roughly equal to the Vegas line.
At their best: Alabama 21, Notre Dame 10 Worst: Alabama 15, Notre Dame 0
If both teams play their best game, the result is hardly different than if each team plays their "average" game. Alabama wins a low-scoring shutout if they play their worst and Notre Dame repeats their performance against Pitt. The extremes are both shutouts, too: if the Tide play their best, and Notre Dame their worst, it would be a 41-0 Tide win. Conversely, the Irish would win 23-0 if the tables are turned.
Yardage analysis: Alabama 17, Notre Dame 14 per-play: Alabama 37, Notre Dame 17
Alabama ranks #1 in adjusted yardage differential vs. its opponents, and Notre Dame is #6. Both teams achieve those high rankings due to good defense: the Crimson Tide are #1 in total defense and Notre Dame is #5. In total offense—again, adjusted for opposition—Alabama is just #29, and Notre Dame #31. Pitting these strong defenses against their relatively weak offensive counterparts yields low yardage estimates—just over 300 yards for Alabama, just under 300 for Notre Dame, with a difference of about 50 yards—and a resulting low score estimate, with Alabama the winner by a field goal.
In per-play figures Alabama is much more dominant. The difference is that Alabama's offense is actually very efficient and in per-play terms they're the 5th best offense in the nation. And they're still #1 on defense. In this simulation the Tide average 1.5 yards more than the Irish in both pass and run plays and win rather easily.
Adjustments to yardage estimate: Alabama 14, Notre Dame 11
- Interceptions: Interceptions shouldn't be a huge factor here—of course, it only takes one to change a game. But based on these teams' seasons there won't be many, up to one each, in an average pairing between the two. Alabama has thrown so few this year that we give them a 1-point edge here.
- Forced fumbles: Notre Dame might have a small edge here, less than 1/2 point. Alabama coughs up the ball a surprising amount, but Notre Dame doesn't force many fumbles.
- Sacks: We expect Notre Dame to have a 3 to 2 advantage in sacks, roughly worth 1 1/2 points.
- Red zone%: This is where the game could be won or lost. These are the nation's two best red zone teams overall, with Notre Dame #1 and Alabama #2. The Tide are #4 in red zone defense and #10 on offense, while Notre Dame is #1 on defense and #46 on offense. The Irish finish #1 overall because they're far and away #1 on defense—think the Stanford and USC goal line stands—with the average team scoring just 30% of potential points in the red zone (Alabama gives up 45% to the average team). Both teams will struggle inside the 20, with Notre Dame converting just 50% of points and Alabama 44%. Of course, both teams have to first reach the 20 yard line, so the reduction in points isn't great, about 2 1/2 for Alabama and 1 1/2 for Notre Dame.
- Kicking game: Alabama gets a small edge here due to superior punting and very consistent field goal kicking from short-range kicker Jeremy Shelley.
- Kick returns: The Crimson Tide should have a big edge here. In kickoff returns they have a decent advantage as they are better on fielding and coverage, but since punts are going to be more numerous than kickoffs that's where their real edge is. And Notre Dame is horrible on punt returns, 119th in the nation. We give the Tide around a 1/2 point and dock Notre Dame a full point.
Summary: In the end the margin estimate doesn't change, but both teams' scoring is knocked even lower mostly due to their opponent's tough red zone defense.
When Notre Dame has the ball
Notre Dame rushing offense: #20
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Alabama rushing defense: #2
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Notre Dame's rushing offense is fairly potent, with Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood combining for over 1,600 yards on the year. The offensive line has been a strength this year, but they'll be going up against one of the nation's top rush defenses—the Tide are #2 behind Michigan State by a hair and on a per-carry basis they're #1. This clash results in an estimate of around 130 rushing yards for Notre Dame.
| Notre Dame passing offense: #68 |
Alabama passing defense: #1 per att: #5 |
| Notre Dame interceptions thrown ranking: #25 |
Alabama interceptions picked ranking: #19 |
| Notre Dame quarterback protection rank: #36 |
Alabama pass rush rank: #22 |
Notre Dame hasn't had a season without some kind of quarterback controversy in years, and 2012 started off with another as Tommy Rees was suspended for the first game, came in to win the 2nd game, then sat behind Everett Golson for most of the year. Golson threw for 2,135 yards and 11 touchdowns, completing just 59%. Rees added 436 yards, 2 TDs and 2 picks. Tyler Eifert and T.J. Jones are the top targets, combining for nearly 1,200 yards. Alabama's pass defense is fairly impenetrable and the Irish will be lucky to have 150 yards.
Notre Dame is pretty good at keeping the ball under control and protecting the quarterback in the passing game, which is good since Alabama gets a lot of interceptions and sacks. With only 7 interceptions and 16 sacks allowed the Irish should be able to keep their composure to a reasonable extent but yardage won't come easily.
When Alabama has the ball
Alabama rushing offense: #15
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Notre Dame rushing defense: #7
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Alabama has two great weapons in Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon, both of whom have reached 1,000 yards—1,182 for Lacy and exactly 1,000 for freshman phenom Yeldon. They'll be a challenge for Notre Dame's defense which is excellent against the run—though not quite as good as Alabama's D. The Tide should have around 160 rushing yards.
| Alabama passing offense: #82 |
Notre Dame passing defense: #13 per att: #11 |
| Alabama interceptions thrown ranking: #2 |
Notre Dame interceptions picked ranking: #13 |
| Alabama quarterback protection rank: #65 |
Notre Dame pass rush rank: #13 |
Alabama's passing game isn't very productive, but it's very efficient. A.J. McCarron has thrown for 2,669 yards and 26 touchdowns, completing 67% with just 3 interceptions. On a per-attempt basis we rank them #5 in the nation. Amari Cooper is the only receiver above 500 yards (895) but 7 others have over 100, so the ball is spread around pretty well. Notre Dame's pass defense is solid and should limit the Tide to just over 160 yards.
Notre Dame's pass defense is #13 pretty much across the board in opponent-adjusted stats: yardage per-game, interceptions, and sacks. Interceptions shouldn't be a big problem for McCarron as he's been extremely careful with the ball. All of his picks have come in their toughest games, though: two against Texas A&M and one against Georgia. QB protection could be the Tide's biggest problem here, though, as they've give up 22 sacks on McCarron; look for Notre Dame to apply heavy pressure and have around 3 sacks.
Notre Dame's season (12-0)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (10)
Wins vs. SR Top 25 teams (2)
Losses (0) to losing teams (0)
- = Navy W 50-10
- Purdue W 20-17
- @ Michigan State W 20-3
- Michigan W 13-6
- Miami (FL) W 41-3
- #7 Stanford W 20-13 OT
- Brigham Young W 17-14
- @ #12 Oklahoma W 30-13
- Pittsburgh W 29-26 3OT
- @ Boston College W 21-6
- Wake Forest W 38-0
- @ USC W 22-13
Notre Dame's first 9 opponents ended up eligible for a bowl game (Miami opted out), so while a few of the teams on their schedule ended up having disappointing seasons the Irish definitely had one of the tougher slates out there, with 10 bowl-eligible teams out of 12 games.
It wasn't exactly a smooth road to 12-0, however. Purdue gave them real trouble, as did BYU, while Stanford and Pittsburgh came about as close to winning as a team can without actually winning. The Irish slogged past Michigan and USC. On the other hand, Notre Dame demolished Navy and Miami and thoroughly beat Michigan State in East Lansing and Oklahoma in Norman.
On offense the Irish were great in Ireland against Navy. After that, however, they ranged from incompetent (20 points vs. Purdue, 13 against Michigan, 21 vs. Boston College) to pretty decent (20 vs. Michigan State, 41 vs. Miami, 30 vs. Oklahoma). The defense was either good or great, holding Michigan to 6, Miami to 3, and Oklahoma to 13. The Navy game was the only one where you could argue the offense outperformed the defense.
Alabama's season (12-1)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. SR Top 25 teams (2)
Losses (1) to losing teams (0)
- = Michigan W 41-14
- Western Kentucky W 35-0
- @ Arkansas W 52-0
- Florida Atlantic W 40-7
- Mississippi W 33-14
- @ Missouri W 42-10
- @ Tennessee W 44-13
- Mississippi State W 38-7
- @ #6 LSU W 21-17
- #9 Texas A&M L 24-29
- Western Carolina W 49-0
- Auburn W 49-0
- @ #11 Georgia W 32-28
Alabama kicked off the college football season with a dominant win over Michigan, and even though the Wolverines didn't live up to expectations Alabama's subsequent games made them look fairly indestructable as they shut out Western Kentucky and Arkansas and allowed just 7 to 14 points of their next 5 opponents.
At LSU, however, the Tide finally looked vulnerable, as they allowed the most points they had so far (17) while scoring 12 points fewer than their previous low. Immediately after that they lost to Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M—at home—and suddenly they needed help to get back on track for a national title. Alabama took care of business against Western Carolina and Auburn, both 49-0 wins, but struggled to contain Georgia and needed a big stop in the final seconds to avoid a 2nd defeat.
The bottom line is that while Alabama has dominated poor teams, mediocre teams, and even some quite good ones, when they face a true top 25 team—LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia—they've had big trouble. This suggests that the Notre Dame game could be another very close one.
Key Injuries
Other than a few questionable players on both sides, nothing major. The teams have had a lot of time to heal minor injuries too.
Psychology/Motivation
- Notre Dame's season: +4 wins; Alabama's season: +0 wins
- Notre Dame's momentum: +0 wins; Alabama's momentum: -1 win
- Notre Dame won final game: YES; Alabama won final game: YES
- Notre Dame glad to be there? YES; Alabama glad to be there: YES
- Notre Dame time zones from home: 1; Alabama time zones from home: 1;
- Notre Dame coaching situation: stable; Alabama coaching situation: stable
There's not much different here. Notre Dame has had their first great season in a long time, while for Alabama this year was pretty typical of their recent campaigns. Both teams are naturally glad to be in the national title game but both have additional reason to be grateful, Notre Dame due to the program's recent futility and Alabama due to the scare that they might have been excluded after their loss.
The one difference we can speculate about is hunger. Alabama has won the title game twice in the last three years, which includes most of their current team. They won it last year. Can they possibly be as hungry as a Notre Dame team which has had middling success in the last few years? The program hasn't had a national title in nearly 25 years; it's hard to imagine that Alabama could be quite as hungry as the Irish.
Final analysis
This should be a defensive battle; both teams are great on defense and merely competent on offense. But Alabama's defense is better than Notre Dame's, and their offense is much more competent. That's why they're a 10-point favorite and win every comparison we can throw at the situation.
While the Tide have had their close calls—even losing a game—those came against some of the better teams in the nation: Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia. One Notre Dame's close calls came against Stanford, but three others—a couple of 3-point wins and a triple overtime game—came against middling BYU and mediocre Purdue and Pitt. Alabama is a powerful team that has trouble against other great teams, while Notre Dame is a team that generally plays just above its competition, which is often true of teams that have great defense but average offense.
Alabama has only given up more than 17 points twice this season; one time they lost, the other time they nearly lost. So to win Notre Dame either has to hold Alabama to a very low score, or manage to score 28 or 29 points. The latter seems unlikely; both teams that achieved that against the Tide had great passing games: Texas A&M ranks 12th and Georgia 27th in adjusted passing offense, and they rank #8 and #1 in per-attempt passing yardage. Notre Dame's passing offense is #68 and #32 in those categories. The Irish are unlikely to win a game where the winner scores in the high 20s.
So they need to hold Alabama to a low score, which is a possibility. LSU almost won a low-scoring game against the Tide, and that's the model for a Notre Dame upset. Like Notre Dame, LSU isn't a strong passing team, but is a pretty decent rushing team, and they live by defense. The Tigers had a chance at the end but came up short; Notre Dame just needs a few things to bounce their way and they can beat the Crimson Tide.
And we think they'll get those bounces; they've been getting them all season. The amount of luck they've needed to go undefeated is typical of the "luck of the Irish" which they haven't had in the last decade or so. But when it starts to happen, as it has this year, great things happen for Notre Dame. Whether it's just coincidence or that the teams over the years have got it in their heads that things will work out for them and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, who knows, but the Irish are historically a team that breaks major winning streaks. And the SEC's 6-year national championship run is one such streak that's due to fall some day; it's only fitting if it's not another conference that breaks it, but rather one of the few remaining independent teams. We think that somehow, Notre Dame will manage to get another nail-biting victory.
Prediction: Notre Dame 23, Alabama 21
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2012-2013 bowl game schedule.
