SportsRatings: College Football

2013 Pre-season Rankings: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Alabama Crimson Tide  (SEC #1; West #1)

#1	2012 Results	AP #1 USA #1	Strength:#1  Success:#1  Overall:#1
		Record: 13-1	Bowl: Beat Notre Dame 42-14 (BCS championship)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #1 | USA #1 | Lindy's #1 | Athlon #1 | Steele #1
		Record: 11-1	Bowl: BCS Championship (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

We hate to be this boring but yes, Alabama is our #1 team for the 2013 pre-season.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #12 (raw) #7 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #10 (adjusted)

Alabama's methodical offense might slip will still rank in the top 10.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #76 (raw) #71 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #48
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #45 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #66

A.J. McCarron (2,933 yards, 30 TDs, 3 int) is finally getting credit for being more than a great "game manager" and if the Tide run the table he'll have to be in the Heisman race, flashy or not. Alabama's top four receivers from 2012 are back led by 1,000-yard receiver Amari Cooper (he literally had exactly 1,000 yards, and 11 TDs). More sacks than last year's 23 might allowed by a weaker offensive line but it won't get out of control. We can only imagine that they'll let a QB who had a 30:3 ratio pass the ball more often this year.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #16 (raw) #12 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #23 (adj.)

The effect of the departure of Eddie Lacy (1,322 yards, 17 TDs) might be that we get to see what T.J. Yeldon (1,108 yards, 12 TDs) can really do. The sophomore had a great rookie year and if he improves he will be scary. Two other backs return, both of whom topped 150 yards but Yeldon will be the man this year. The offensive line won't be quite as good however without Barrett Jones, Chace Warmack, and D.J. Fluker, as two of the three were 1st team all-Americans and two were first-round draft picks (Warmack was both). Anthony Steen and Cyrus Kouandjio will anchor another strong Crimson Tide O-line, but we can't imagine it will be quite as good. Yeldon will have a great year but if he rushes for as many yards as he and Lacy had combined in 2012, hand him the Heisman, no voting necessary.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #1    Pass Defense  per-game: #1   Per-attempt: #8
Defense 7 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #1 (raw) #1 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #19	'12 picks: #22
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #2 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #13	'13 picks: #37

Could it happen? Alabama falling to #2 on defense after winning the scoring defense crown for four straight seasons, and with 7 starters back? Let's check out the evidence. The defensive line does lose two starters from the 3-4, so the Tide might not hold onto the top rushing defense. But with all four starters back at linebacker, Alabama may have one of the better LB corps in history. C.J. Mosley led the team with 107 tackles, while Trey DePriest was #2 with just 57. Also back is sacks leader Adrian Hubbard (7). The secondary loses two starters including Dee Milliner, the nation's leader with 20 pass breakups, but two starters are back including Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (5 interceptions). Though we see a drop in interceptions coming (last year, 18) and the D-line isn't quite as good, the linebackers are so good they could make up for any deficiencies. Our formulas drop the defense to #2 here but really, we'll believe it when we see it.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Cody Mandell (44.3 average) is back while Jeremy Shelley (11 of 11 FGs, all under 40 yards) departs. Cade Foster (4 of 9, all from 40+) will take over.
• Return Game:  Christion Jones had a 26.6 average on kickoff returns and one touchdown last year; he's back as is Cyrus Jones (25.0). On punts, Christion Jones averaged 10.1 last year and RB Dee Hart will join too.
• Turnovers projection:  McCarron can hardly throw fewer interceptions, and odds are he throws more but it should be reasonable. The defense probably doesn't match last year's interception total, however.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #3          2012 Recruiting Rank: #3
What is the secret to Alabama's success? Is it great coaching? Recruiting? Well the two are pretty intertwined, but even Nick Saban wouldn't win 3 out of 4 national championships without some damn good players, and Alabama gets almost all of them. With three consecutive top-3 classes, the Tide have talent lined up waiting to get their shot on the field. This year they have more consensus 5-star players than any other team: tight end O.J. Howard from Prattville, AL; defensive tackle A'Shawn Robinson from Texas; LB Reuben Foster from Auburn, AL; and defensive end Jonathan Allen from Virginia are all the best or very nearly the best at their position.

2012 Recap
Alabama kicked off the college football season with a 41-14 win over Michigan, and even though the Wolverines didn't live up to expectations Alabama's subsequent games made them look fairly indestructable as they shut out Western Kentucky 35-0 and Arkansas 52-0 and allowed just 7 to 14 points of their next 5 opponents. At LSU, however, the Tide finally looked vulnerable, as they allowed the most points they had so far (17) while scoring 12 points fewer than their previous low. Immediately after that they lost 29-24 to Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M—at home—and suddenly they needed help to get back on track for a national title. Alabama took care of business against Western Carolina and Auburn, both 49-0 wins, but struggled to contain Georgia 32-28 and needed a big stop in the final seconds to avoid a 2nd defeat. There were no such problems with Notre Dame, as Alabama jumped all over them from the beginning in a 42-14 wallop.

Last year's prediction: We were pretty close on the Tide last year, but we got one thing wrong: we picked them #2 instead of #1. Close, but no cigar.

2013 Outlook

Alabama 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	N	Virginia Tech	99%	W
9/14	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	56%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Colorado State	99%	W
9/28	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	89%	W
10/5	Sat	vs.	Georgia State	99%	W
10/12	Sat	@	*Kentucky	98%	W
10/19	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	99%	W
10/26	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	98%	W
11/9	Sat	vs.	*LSU	92%	W
11/16	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	94%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	TN-Chattanooga	100%	W
11/30	Sat	@	*Auburn	96%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 11-1  Odds of 12-0: 38%

Alabama's chart this year is pretty crazy. Use the odds above and Bama has a 45% chance to go 11-1, a 38% chance to 12-0, 14% chance for 10-2, 2% for 9-3, and 1% for 8-4 and below.

The opener vs. Virginia Tech has about a 20-point line, which doesn't quite capture the blowout we see coming. The big game is obviously Texas A&M in College Station. It is by far the hardest win of the season for Alabama; get past the Aggies and it's a matter of keeping focus. We think last year's loss and the fact that it comes so early in the year are big advantages for Alabama.

After that, what is left to say? Any other loss is a huge upset, and the Tide have a pretty easy path of things with brand-new FBS team Georgia State and still-FCS team Tennessee-Chattanooga on the slate. Only Mississippi and LSU look like they'll put up a fight and both of those are in Tuscaloosa. As if they needed help or something, Alabama scheduled a 7-4-1 this year (7 home games, 4 road, 1 neutral).

The last big game of the season will be the SEC championship, and here the tables are turned on the Tide; instead of an early game where they get revenge, it's a late game where their opponent (if Georgia) wants revenge. The Bulldogs will have been waiting a year for it, it will be in Atlanta, and it could mean the end for the Tide's run. But we have Alabama rated so much higher than Georgia we give the game to Alabama, and put them in the BCS title game with Oregon, and Alabama repeats as champs again.

Pretty boring, we warned you. Hopefully something interesting happens along the way, this is getting old!

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #2 Oregon Ducks

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Oregon Ducks  (Pac-12 #1; North #1)

#2	2012 Results	AP #2 USA #2	Strength:#2  Success:#6  Overall:#2
		Record: 12-1	Bowl: Beat Kansas State 35-17 (Fiesta)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #3 | USA #3 | Lindy's #4 | Athlon #3 | Steele #3
		Record: 11-1	Bowl: BCS Championship (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Another year, another great Oregon football team.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #2 (raw) #1 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #1 (adjusted)

Oregon had the top offense in the country last year, and there's no good reason to think they won't again this year.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #73 (raw) #75 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #14
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #48 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #17

Oregon doesn't pass in volume but with Marcus Mariota (2,677 yards, 32 TDs, 6 int) at the helm they do so efficiently. None of their receivers topped 500 yards last year but nine players had over 100 receiving yards and seven of them are back, led by Josh Huff with 493 (7 TDs) and RB DeAnthony Thomas with 445 (5 TDs). Mariota was the 2nd best redshirt freshman QB in the country (behind Johnny Manziel) and the passing numbers should go up in his sophomore year, provided he avoids the "sophomore slump."

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #3 (raw) #2 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #4 (adj.)

Kenjon Barner (1,767 yards, 21 TDs) was another in a growing line of Oregon backs who put up outrageous numbers. DeAnthony Thomas (701 yards, 11 TDs, 7.6 ypc) will probably be the next. QB Mariota added 752 net yards and 5 touchdowns, and Byron Marshall had 447. Is that enough to replace Barner? Probably not, but they'll come close. The offensive line has three starters back, Jake Fisher, Hroniss Grasu, and Tyler Johnstone.

Thomas' sophomore stats are remarkably similar to those of Reggie Bush's sophomore season, where he was more of an all-purpose runner; Bush had 908 rushing yards, 6 TDs, 6.3 ypc, 509 receiving yards (7 TDs), and 2 touchdowns on kick returns. The next year Bush was set free at running back and won the Heisman. If Thomas is used as extensively at RB as Barner was (278 carries), he has to be considered among the top Heisman candidates in 2013.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #48    Pass Defense  per-game: #40   Per-attempt: #2
Defense 7 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #27 (raw) #17 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #89	'12 picks: #1
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #10 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #86	'13 picks: #1

The Ducks played good defense last year; even when they gave up yardage those yards didn't get converted to points very frequently, often because of interceptions that stopped drives. The defensive line returns 2 of three starters; Dion Jordan (5 sacks) is gone but Taylor Hart (8 sacks) is back. At linebacker the Ducks lose their top 2 tacklers, Michael Clay (101 tackles) and Kiko Alonso (13 tackles for loss, 4 interceptions). The secondary returns all four starters including Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (16 pass breakups, 4 int), and their interceptions leader was backup Erick Dargan (5 int). We don't expect the D to match last year's 26 interceptions but they could come close, and if they overcome the weakness at linebacker could be a top ten scoring defense.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Jackson Rice (40.0 average) and senior Alejandro Maldonado won the job; as placekicker he made just 3 of 6 field goals last year but Rob Beard (4 of 8) is gone and Maldonado is in the race with freshman Matt Wogan to take over.
• Return Game:  De'Anthony Thomas had 2 touchdown returns last year, one on a punt (17.1 ave) and one on a kickoff (24.3 ave), making 4 total in his two years at Oregon. Bralon Addison could see more action on punts if they want to rest Thomas for RB work.
• Turnovers projection:  Oregon got lucky with fumble recovery last year and that probably won't happen again.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #21          2012 Recruiting Rank: #11
There wasn't much of a dip in recruiting in the transition from Chip Kelly to Mark Helfrich; it helped that the new coach was promoted from within, like Kelly was. It also helps that Oregon has become a football brand name, backed by another very famous brand name. With NIKE money paying the way, Oregon's new $68 million facility contains lockers that reportedly cost $30,000 each and were imported from Germany. Top recruit Thomas Tyner, a running back from Beaverton, is a consensus 5-star and might be DeAnthony Thomas' successor.

2012 Recap
Oregon's offense was once again an unstoppable force for most of 2012. They scored 57 on Arkansas State, 52 on Washington, 70 on Colorado, 62 on USC, 59 on Cal, and 48 on Oregon State. The defense wasn't as spectacular or as consistent, having one stellar game in the 49-0 Arizona shutout but allowing 51 against USC before closing the year with four strong performances. They lost one of those games, to Stanford 17-14 in overtime when the offense didn't hold up its end of the bargain, and that loss cost them a shot at the national championship. In the Fiesta Bowl they topped Kansas State convincingly 35-17.

Last year's prediction: We figured the losses on offense would drop Oregon's O from #2 to around #5 but instead it moved up to #1. We ranked the Ducks #8 and called for a 10-2 season, with 11 wins picked game-by-game (losing to USC, not Stanford). Putting Oregon in the top ten seems like a reasonable bet these days.

2013 Outlook

Oregon 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Nicholls State	100%	W
9/7	Sat	@	Virginia	97%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Tennessee	97%	W
9/28	Sat	vs.	*California	99%	W
10/5	Sat	@	*Colorado	99%	W
10/12	Sat	@	*Washington	71%	W
10/19	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	98%	W
10/26	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	89%	W
11/7	Thu	@	*Stanford	75%	W
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Utah	98%	W
11/23	Sat	@	*Arizona	85%	W
11/29	Fri	vs.	*Oregon State	81%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 11-1  Odds of 12-0: 29%

In their first five games Oregon faces Nicholls State, California, and Colorado, with intervening games at Virginia and vs. Tennessee that should be only marginally tougher. Their first real test is Washington on the road, and that's quite a step up; it could be called a "trap" game for sure.

If they make it past that the Ducks have Washington State at home, followed by UCLA (again at home); the Bruins game could be another trap as it precede a week off as well as the pivotal Stanford rematch. Utah should be no problem, then Arizona and Oregon State provide two final tests. Oregon should make it to the Pac-12 title game, possibly facing Arizona State. The question is, can the Ducks win all their games and make it to the BCS championship?

We favor them by quite a bit in every game. Still, when added up an 11-1 outcome is most likely; their odds of going 12-0 are about 3 in 10 and then they have to win the Pac-12 title game. And then any other undefeated (or 1-loss) teams have to be considered. But since we rank Oregon #2, we assume they get the nod to face Alabama in the BCS championship. And since we rank Alabama #1, we assume the Ducks lose that game. But they have a decent shot at beating the Tide for the national title, an even better chance of getting the shot in the first place, and even if they don't go to the BCS bowl they will very likely go to a BCS bowl at least.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #3 Texas A&M Aggies

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Texas A&M Aggies  (SEC #2; West #2)

#3	2012 Results	AP #5 USA #5	Strength:#3  Success:#5  Overall:#3
		Record: 11-2	Bowl: Beat Oklahoma 41-13 (Cotton)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #7 | USA #6 | Lindy's #5 | Athlon #9 | Steele #11
		Record: 10-2	Bowl: Sugar (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Johnny Football is back, but is his supporting cast as good as last year's?

Offense 6 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #4 (raw) #2 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #2 (adjusted)

WIth Johnny Manziel back—cross your fingers—the Aggie passing game and ground game look to be just as good as last year, and therefore the offense should remain one of the nation's very best.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #14 (raw) #12 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #42
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #13 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #44

Heisman winner Johnny Manziel (3,706 yards, 26 TDs, 9 int) has had (or created) his share of off-season distractions, from controversial tweets to negligent oversleeping to allegations that he charged for autographs. The latter may get him in trouble with the NCAA but as of right now Texas A&M officials stand by him and he is set to play in the opener. At receiver just two of the top six pass catchers are back; the Aggies lose Ryan Swope (913 yards, 8 TDs) but return #1 Mike Evans (1,105 yards, 5 TDs). As a passer Manziel was productive but not outrageously so and there's no reason he can't do it again—as long as he plays.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #11 (raw) #6 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #5 (adj.)

Manziel's running is what really won him the Heisman as he led the team with 1,410 yards and 21 touchdowns. Ben Malena was the top running back with 808 (8 TDs). Christine Michael (417, 12 TDs) departs but Trey Williams (#4 with 376) is back. They add transfers Brandon Williams (219 yards at Oklahoma in 2011) and Tra Carson (254 at Oregon '11). The offensive line returns three starters: Jake Matthews, Cedric Ogbuehi, and Jarvis Harrison. They lose star Luke Joeckel to the NFL but Matthews is a future 1st round pick himself. Manziel may carry less of the load this season but the running game should remain as strong.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #35    Pass Defense  per-game: #87   Per-attempt: #30
Defense 5 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #28 (raw) #18 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #34	'12 picks: #62
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #23 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #62	'13 picks: #53

The Aggies lose quite a bit on D, with the biggest loss being #1 tacklers Damonte Moore (12.5 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss). The D-line does return two starters including Kirby Ennis, who is suspended for game one. At linebacker #2 tackler Jonathan Stewart is gone but #3 Steven Jenkins returns. Dustin Harris (11 pass breakups) is the key loss in the secondary; DeShazor Everett is back but is suspended for the first half of game one due to an assault charge. If assault only gets you a half-game suspension at A&M, it's no wonder they aren't suspending Manziel. Or maybe it's related to status on the team; Floyd Raven is out a full game for the same incident. In any case the defense appears to be weaker, but not so much so that it would drag the team down.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Taylor Bertolet (13 of 22 FG) is back and fellow soph Drew Kaser will replace punter Ryan Epperson (42.0 ave).
• Return Game:  Trey Williams (22.3 average) will again return kickoffs while punt fielder Dustin Harris (12.7 average) who had 1 touchdown return, departs. Corner DeVante Harris will take over.
• Turnovers projection:  No major changes seen.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #6          2012 Recruiting Rank: #22
Kevin Sumlin's 2nd recruiting class is a winner, ranking in the top ten nationally. Though Sumlin didn't bring Johnny Manziel to A&M, his use of Manziel in the offense and willingness to let him improvise on broken plays shows recruits his flexibility in player development. Manziel's Heisman and beating Alabama gave the program a big boost. Sumlin could have the best of both worlds in recruiting terms: being in Texas and being in the SEC could give him access to the entire South. For now, the vast majority of recruits still come from in-state.

2012 Recap
Texas A&M was an unknown quantity heading into the Florida game since the opener against Louisiana Tech was postponed. 2011's team led by Ryan Tannehill underachieved to a 6-6 record. Their freshman quarterback made his debut against what proved to be the nation's #3 defense. They lost 20-17, but Manziel and the offense proved themselves by scoring 48, 70, and 58 in their next three games against SMU, S.C. State, and Arkansas. They edged Mississippi 30-27 and then won a crazy 59-57 shootout with Louisiana Tech which again put their offense on display but also highlighted defensive problems, and brought back the spectre of letting teams back in the game in the 2nd half. Facing a second great SEC defense, the team fell to LSU 24-19. So even after they trounced Auburn and Mississippi State, the big games looked out of their reach as Manziel and the offense had played poorly against the #3 and #10 defense and would have to face the #1 defense in Alabama. But with help from their own defense, Manziel & company upset the Tide and Manziel was on his way to the Heisman Trophy. He completed obliterated the "Heisman Jinx" in the bowl game as the Aggies crushed Oklahoma 41-13 in the Cotton Bowl.

Last year's prediction: We noted that 2011's 6-6 team was vastly underrated so we kept the Aggies in the top 25 at #21, predicting that they'd have a near-top-ten offense. We projected a 7-5 cumulative record, or 9-3 game-by-game in their first season in the tough SEC. What we didn't account for is Johnny Manziel, who did more than we possibly could have foreseen as a freshman.

2013 Outlook

Texas A&M 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Rice	92%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	Sam Houston St.	97%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	44%	L
9/21	Sat	vs.	SMU	99%	W
9/28	Sat	@	*Arkansas	98%	W
10/12	Sat	@	*Mississippi	66%	W
10/19	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	97%	W
10/26	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	92%	W
11/2	Sat	vs.	UTEP	99%	W
11/9	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	94%	W
11/23	Sat	@	*LSU	72%	W
11/30	Sat	@	*Missouri	84%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 13%

Rice and Sam Houston State should serve as warmups for the Alabama game. A few defensive starters will miss the Rice game and there was speculation that Manziel could, too, but as of this writing it seems he will play. Alabama is probably too good for the Aggies, even in College Station, but that was the case last year and they got the upset. It should be a great game.

After that, their big tests are Mississippi on the road, LSU on the road, and keeping their focus as they play teams like SMU, Arkansas, Auburn, and UTEP; it will probably be easier if they lost the Alabama game than if they win it. Vanderbilt at home and Missouri on the road could be traps. The cumulative projection is for 10 wins, leaning toward 11 (and 11-1 is the most likely single outcome), with a 13% chance of going 12-0.

Assuming they drop the 'Bama game, the Aggies as our #2 SEC team would go to the Sugar Bowl where we've paired them with Oklahoma State.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #5 Texas Longhorns

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Texas Longhorns  (Big Twelve #1)

#5	2012 Results	AP #19 USA #18	Strength:#19  Success:#22  Overall:#18
		Record: 9-4	Bowl: Beat Oregon State 31-27 (Alamo)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #15 | USA #15 | Lindy's #18 | Athlon #18 | Steele #5
		Record: 10-2	Bowl: Fiesta (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Gun-shy? After two years of touting Texas as a turnaround team, the national media has been bitten twice and is backing off, generally predicting a small amount of improvement from the Longhorns. But Phil Steele isn't afraid to make a bold prediction and apparently neither are we.

Offense 10 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #21 (raw) #14 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #3 (adjusted)

Scads of returning starters plus co-o.c. Major Applewhite shifting the tempo into overdrive should equal the Texas offense becoming one of the nation's very best.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #43 (raw) #47 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #25
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #9 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #16

Texas' problems over the last three years can largely be traced to quarterback play. Following the Vince Young and Colt McCoy eras came the disastrous Garrett Gilbert year and a year of David Ash/Case McCoy battles where both were ineffective. Last season David Ash (2,699 yards, 19 TDs, 8 int) firmly entrenched himself as the starter for the team and with Case McCoy (722 yards, 6 TDs, 3 int) as backup the QB position is pretty sound. Six of last year's top eight receivers are back including #1 Mike Davis (939 yards, 7 TDs) and #2 Jaxon Shipley (737 yards, 6 TDs). QB protection was very good last year (16 sacks) and could be even better this year. All of that wouldn't cause a jump from #47 into the top ten, but all of that plus a) an offensive shift from run-heavy to a more balanced spread and b) a move to a super up-tempo offense, could do it.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #50 (raw) #37 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #15 (adj.)

Texas used a running-back-by-committee approach last year and it was a big committee, with 7 players topping 100 yards. Five of them are back—the top four plus QB Ash—with #1 Johnathan Gray (701 yards) and Joe Bergeron (567 yards, 16 TDs) leading the way. #3 Malcolm Brown had 324 yards last year and 742 the previous year when he was uninjured. The offensive line returns five starters: seniors Mason Walters, Trey Hopkins, and Donald Hawkins join juniors Dominic Espinosa and Josh Cochran. That adds up to a big jump in ground production, well into the top 25. Some reps will be diverted to the passing game in the new offense but the faster tempo should more than make up for that.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #72    Pass Defense  per-game: #9   Per-attempt: #63
Defense 9 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #76 (raw) #36 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #12	'12 picks: #26
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #46 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #9	'13 picks: #25

Last year's scoring defense ranked #76 in raw numbers but Texas played some of the highest-scoring teams in the country (5 of the top 11); when adjusted it was a mediocre but not-horrible #36. The per-game pass defense similarly jumps from #36 to #9 when corrected for the pass-happy teams the Longhorns faced. The rushing defense still looked bad even after correction (#72).

This year it's easier to start with who is not back on the Texas defense, as they lose only 2 of their top 20 tacklers. They are two very important losses, however: #1 tackler Kenny Vacarro (96 tackles) from the secondary, and Alex Okafor (12.5 sacks) from the defensive line. The D-line also loses part-time starter Brandon Moore (8 tackles for loss) and Ashton Dorsey (10 tackles for loss) who recently transferred, but Jackson Jeffcoat comes back from injury. They also thought they were getting Zeke Riser from Houston but he ended up at Maryland. At linebacker all three starters return and Jordan Hicks is back, too; like Jeffcoat he played only a handful of games before being lost for the year. The secondary has three starters back including Quandre Diggs (4 int). This defense will be a lot better, and normally they would jump in rank well into the top 25, but with the added tempo on offense opponents will have more drives and plays and inevitably, scoring. So in this case the scoring defense may lose ground despite the D being much better. By playing against the fast-paced offense in practice the defense should get used to the pace pushed by many of its opponents.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Nick Jordan (9 of 15 field goals) is back but has to fight off Nick Rose to keep his job. Punter Alex King (45.3 yard average) is gone and Penn State transfer Anthony Fera (42.0 average at Penn State in 2011) should get the job.
• Return Game:  Quandre Diggs averaged 8.2 yards per punt return and he's back. D.J. Monroe (24.5 average on kickoffs, 1 TD return) is gone. Diggs took kickoffs in 2011 but Duke Thomas may get the call there.
• Turnovers projection:  We don't see a big change in turnovers for the Longhorns.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #32          2012 Recruiting Rank: #1
Being #1 is a tough act to follow—just ask Mack Brown. No, I'm not talking about the 2005 national championship that somehow has started to haunt him in comparison to recent years. But last year's #1 recruiting class, which he follows with one that doesn't make the top 25. The secret is size—the 2012 class had 28 recruits and this one has just 15, so it's not fair to call it a decline; they just can't use that many players this year. In terms of quality, it's good—having a 15-player class rank near the top 25 is pretty rare. About 2/3 of the players are considered blue chips. Juco offensive lineman Desmond Harrison just got cleared to play, and he's expected to jump in right away.

2012 Recap
Texas started off a bit shaky against Wyoming (37-17), improved with a 45-0 shutout of New Mexico, and bombarded Mississippi for 66 points. They also gave up 31, and they gave up 36 to high-scoring Oklahoma State in that win. The next three games were defensive nightmares; the Longhorns yielded 48 at home to West Virginia in a 45-35 loss, 63 to Oklahoma (63-21), and 50 to Baylor (a 56-50 win). The D recovered quite a bit after that but the offense slipped against Kansas (a 21-17 point win) and TCU (a 20-13 loss). They played well in beating Texas Tech 31-22 and Iowa State 33-7, and in the 42-24 loss to Kansas State at the end. The bowl game showed both the offense and defense is good form in a 31-27 win over tough Oregon State.

Last year's prediction: We had Texas #6 last year, we admit it. But that was the first year we were calling for a big rebound season for the Longhorns; we didn't buy it in 2010. Last year we projected a 9-3 season in cumulative terms. The defense was supposed to get worse but not as bad as it got, and we did correctly project the scoring offense rising into the top 25.

2013 Outlook

Texas 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	New Mexico State	99%	W
9/7	Sat	@	BYU	78%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Mississippi	74%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	87%	W
10/5	Sat	@	*Iowa State	88%	W
10/12	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	75%	W
10/26	Sat	@	*TCU	69%	W
11/2	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	99%	W
11/9	Sat	@	*West Virginia	95%	W
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	64%	W
11/28	Thu	vs.	*Texas Tech	95%	W
12/7	Sat	@	*Baylor	75%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 10%

A team ranked #4 probably should be favored in all of its games, and Texas is because they are top in the Big Twelve in our book, they face the next-toughest conference teams at home, and their pre-season schedule contains no powerhouses.

New Mexico State is a gimme, but BYU is a strong opponent on the road. Mississippi is a borderline top ten team in our rankings but it's in Austin. The latter two games should help establish whether the Longhorns are back for real or just pretending early on. The toughest gaems in the Big Twelve should be TCU on the road and Oklahoma State at home. And of course Oklahoma in Dallas is huge, and Baylor on the road is a final test. Amongst all of these the Longhorns should lose a couple of games, with their odds of actually winning all of them being just 10%.

My question is, does Texas have quarterback play solid enough to make a national championship run? That and the defense, mainly the rushing defense, have to be proven sound enough to take on the very best teams. Winning the Big Twelve is one thing, but this year the conference might not be as good as it has been recently.

We do rank Texas #1 in the Big Twelve so they ought to go to the Fiesta Bowl, and they might end up playing Louisville there.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #4 Georgia Bulldogs

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Georgia Bulldogs  (SEC #3; East #1)

#4	2012 Results	AP #5 USA #4	Strength:#5  Success:#8  Overall:#6
		Record: 12-2	Bowl: Beat Nebraska 45-31 (Capital One)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #5 | USA #5 | Lindy's #6 | Athlon #4 | Steele #6
		Record: 10-2	Bowl: Capital One (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

The Bulldog offense is going to be scary but defense could be their downfall as they make a run for an SEC and national title.

Offense 9 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #16 (raw) #11 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #4 (adjusted)

Both in passing and rushing Georgia should rank close to the top ten nationally (after correcting for the tough defenses they face) which should put them among the top 5 scoring offenses.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #30 (raw) #23 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #55
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #10 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #33

Aaron Murray (3,893 yards, 36 TDs, 10 int) has to be on any shortlist of the best college quarterbacks playing today, and while he doesn't get the publicity that some of the others get he should be in the running for the Heisman Trophy. Top receiver Tavarres King (950 yards, 9 TDs) is gone but #2 Malcolm Mitchell (572 yards) is back along with 8 other players who had 100+ receiving yards. The offensive line should provide better protection than last year (26 sacks) as all five starters return. Murray should have a fantastic senior year.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #43 (raw) #30 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #11 (adj.)

Todd Gurley (1,385 yards, 17 TDs) and Keith Marshall (759 yards, 8 TDs) both return to the Georgia backfield. That, and the fact that all 5 starters return to the offensive line suggests a big upgrade in ground production is possible. The line starts three seniors—Dallas Lee, Chris Burnette, and Kenarious Gates—junior David Andrews, and soph John Theus. Georgia should have a very balanced attack which spells trouble for opposing defenses.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #52    Pass Defense  per-game: #34   Per-attempt: #44
Defense 3 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #20 (raw) #16 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #37	'12 picks: #36
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #44 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #66	'13 picks: #91

Georgia's 3-4 returns just one starter on the defensive line, Garrison Smith; the rushing defense was already relatively weak and will be an even bigger concern now. At linebacker three starters are gone including #1 tackler Alec Ogletree (111 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss) and 1st team all-American Jarvis Jones (14.5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss). Last year's sack total (32) is bound to plunge without Jones, but backup LB Jordan Jenkins (5 sacks) returns with starter Amarlo Herrera (leading returning tackler w/70). The secondary loses three starters including Shawn Williams and Bacarri Rambo, meaning that the team's top 4 tacklers from last year are gone. The defense loses about 75% of its pass breakups from last year and 60% of interceptions, so last year's 13 picks probably won't be matched. We see the defense, though still well above average, being much weaker than last year's top 25 unit.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker Marshall Morgan (8 of 14 field goals) and punter Collin Barber (41.5 average) are back; they were both freshmen last year. Morgan will probably miss the first game due to a BUI (boating under the influence) charge.
• Return Game:  Malcolm Mitchell (22.5 average on kickoffs) and Rhett McGowan (8.3 on punts) are both back. Todd Gurley had a touchdown return on a kickoff last year but was only used 7 times, probably because he's too valuable at running back; there's talk of using him on kickoffs this season, though.
• Turnovers projection:  The defense getting fewer picks is the only significant change we see.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #2          2012 Recruiting Rank: #19
Mark Richt recruited in bulk this year, with 33 signees. How he did this I'm not sure, but it must fit within the SEC's 25-player signing cap somehow. In any case, about half of these players are blue chips and the other half are simply above average; there are no top-50 or uber-blue chip players in the class. But that doesn't really matter, because not all of those players become superstars and when you have 16 "2nd tier" players, many of those do become superstars. We rank this the best class in the SEC by a hair over Alabama, though attrition can still change that (we only know of one departure, WR Rico Johnson, so far).

2012 Recap
The season was great but it ended up being defined by one game; one play, even. Before the season, many were picking Georgia as the East champion not just based on strength but also due to schedule. And Georgia really did have an easy path to the SEC title game; they managed to play 4 of the 5 SEC teams that finished with a losing record. The Missouri game looked to be a challenge early on and the Bulldogs pulled away by 3 touchdowns 41-20. Beating Vanderbilt 48-3 was truly impressive in retrospect. At 4-0 Georgia looked like they had a shot at the national championship but the next week's performance against Tennessee was awful on D (51-44), and the South Carolina loss (35-7) was a disaster. A meager win over Kentucky (28-24) made it look like Georgia wasn't going anywhere. But the 17-9 Florida win changed that, and the Bulldogs coasted from there, playing better on offense every game and with the defense finally living up to its billing. Confident going into the showdown with Alabama for the SEC title and more importantly, a berth in the BCS championship game, the Bulldogs fought hard all game but came up just short on a botched play. They got some measure of redemption with their 45-31 win over Nebraska but it wasn't the same; they were already looking ahead to next year.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Georgia #12, maybe a little low but the basic idea was right. The cumulative estimate was for a 9-3 season but game-by-game we picked them 11-1 (losing to Missouri, not Florida). Our most prescient moment was at the end of the review when we observed, "Should Georgia win the East division, they'll play—and very likely lose to—the West winner, after which they'll play in the Capital One bowl probably against Nebraska."

2013 Outlook

Georgia 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	@	Clemson	61%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	77%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	North Texas	99%	W
9/28	Sat	vs.	*LSU	80%	W
10/5	Sat	@	*Tennessee	87%	W
10/12	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	89%	W
10/19	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	78%	W
11/2	Sat	N	*Florida	72%	W
11/9	Sat	vs.	Appalachian State	100%	W
11/16	Sat	@	*Auburn	89%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	97%	W
11/30	Sat	@	Georgia Tech	80%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 11%

There are several big games on Georgia's slate, but most of them are at home, and they should be favored in all of them. The first one is Clemson, and it might be their toughest game of the regular season since it's on the road and a starter or two will be missing. If they get past the Tigers their reward is facing both South Carolina and LSU within the next 2 weeks. Both of those are at home, however.

The biggest challenges over the rest of the SEC schedule are Vanderbilt (on the road) and Florida on neutral ground. Tennessee, Missouri, Auburn, and Kentucky shouldn't be too troubling if the Bulldogs are serious about winning the conference this time around. And they get two gimme games in North Texas and Appalachian State at home.

Georgia Tech on the road is another decent test; it won't affect their SEC championship bid but could derail their national title hopes. But the game everyone will be waiting for is the SEC championship game. It will be in Atlanta again, and probably feature the same two teams, Georgia and Alabama. And again, Alabama will probably win; they're just too good. The Bulldogs have a shot due to emotion and the Tide might have a tough time maintaining focus after winning for so long.

But first the Bulldogs have to get there. The defense is a major worry as to whether they can win week in and week out against their tough schedule without a defensive collapse in one game or another. The offense might be good enough to cover for that, however. Our cumulative estimate yields a 10-2 record, with a 10% chance of achieving the 12-0 game-by-game prediction.

Going by our rankings, Georgia should again go to the Capital One Bowl, this time perhaps playing Northwestern.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #6 Oklahoma State Cowboys

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Oklahoma State Cowboys  (Big Twelve #2)

#6	2012 Results	AP #29 USA #29	Strength:#7  Success:#36  Overall:#14
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Beat Purdue 58-14 (Heart of Dallas)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #13 | USA #14 | Lindy's #11 | Athlon #16 | Steele #10
		Record: 10-2	Bowl: Sugar (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Oklahoma State might be good enough to make another push at the BCS championship game.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #3 (raw) #5 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #5 (adjusted)

The passing game will still thrive without Wes Lunt but the ground game could suffer without Joseph Randle.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #7 (raw) #10 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #12
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #6 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #19

Oklahoma State somehow made a three-headed monster at quarterback work. Clint Chelf (1,588 yards, 15 TDs, 6 int), J.W. Walsh (1,564 yards, 13: 3) and Wes Lunt (1,108, 6:7) all had their moment in the spotlight. Lunt started the year but transferred to Illinois in the spring when it became clear he'd lost momentum. Chelf, who stuck with the team when he was passed over last year, is now the favorite for the starting job, though Mike Gundy says he'll play both QBs in the opener. Seven of the top nine receivers return including Josh Stewart (1,210 yards, 7 TDs), Blake Jackson (598 yards), and Charlie Moore (542, 6 TDs). QB Protection was excellent last year and should remain strong. Lunt would have provided good insurance against bad luck w/QB injuries—which occurred last year and could again—but if Chelf and Walsh play as well as they did last year the passing game will be even more productive.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #21 (raw) #18 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #39 (adj.)

Joseph Randle (1,417 yards, 14 TDs) departs and Jeremy Smith (371 yards, 8 TDs) is expected to start in his place. Four other players topped 100 yards and all four are back, including QBs Walsh (290, 7 TDs) and Chelf (162) (Lunt had negative yardage). The offensive line returns starters Parker Graham and Daniel Koenig, while Brandon Webb started the last part of the season. The ground game looks weaker without Randle but there's enough talent to keep the offense reasonably balanced.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #20    Pass Defense  per-game: #102   Per-attempt: #21
Defense 7 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #64 (raw) #38 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #29	'12 picks: #56
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #15 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #24	'13 picks: #27

OK State's defensive line returns two starters including Calvin Barnett (7 tackles for loss), and two return at linebacker as well though they lose co-#1 tackler Alex Elkins (75 tackles). The secondary is in good shape with three senior starters back including Daytawion Lowe (co-#1 w/75 tackles) and Justin Gilbert (9 pass breakups). They also get ex-Kansas starter Tyler Patmon as a grad transfer. Overall the D looks like a top 25 unit.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  The departure of punter/kicker Quinn Sharp (28 of 34 FG, 46.3 punting average) is one of the worst losses on the team. Michael Reichenstein might have an edge over true freshman Ben Grogan at punter, while Grogan will compete with Kip Smith and Bobby Stonebraker for the placekicking job.
• Return Game:  Justin Gilbert and Desmond Roland both had kickoff return touchdowns last year, with Gilbert averaging 25.8 per return (Roland had just two returns). Charlie Moore had a 7.2 average on punts. All three are back.
• Turnovers projection:  The defense had just 11 interceptions last year and that should increase markedly though they won't approach 2011's total of 24. Wes Lunt was the most interception-prone of the QBs last year so the remaining duo should reduce last year's combined 16.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #32          2012 Recruiting Rank: #19
Oklahoma State is approaching the big time in college football without recruiting like it. While Big Twelve powers like Texas and Oklahoma (and nearly all of the SEC) routinely bring in top ten classes, these borderline-top 25 classes are more OK State's style. This year's group ranks in the top half of the Big Twelve, with consensus blue chip receivers Marcell Ateman and RaShaad Samples, both from Texas.

2012 Recap
Oklahoma State kicked things off with a bang: 84-0 against 1-10 FCS team Savannah State. Proving that this meant absolutely nothing, they went from a shutout on defense to a 59-38 loss at Arizona. They turned around again and blasted solid UL-Lafayette 65-24, and went into the Texas showdown 2-1. The Longhorns beat them narrowly in a controversial 41-36 finish and at 2-2 most people wrote them off. The narrow (20-14) Kansas win didn't help their cause, but they won four of their next five, understandably losing to Kansas State (44-30) and beating four bowl teams to sit at 7-3 with two games left. The Oklahoma game—a 51-48 overtime loss on the road—probably took the stuffing out of them a bit going into Baylor, which was a 41-34 loss. They made a big comeback by blasting Purdue 58-14 in the bowl game to end the season on a good note.

Last year's prediction: We ranked the Cowboys #10, and in terms of Strength that wasn't far off. Our cumulative projection called for a 9-3 year and losing three close games didn't help them reach that. Some sub-predictions were interesting: the Cowboys had the #1 offense in 2011 and we projected it to fall to #9 (it fell to #5); we thought their #3 passing game might fall to #31 without Weeden and Blackmon but it only fell to #10.

2013 Outlook

Oklahoma State 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	N	Mississippi State	85%	W
9/7	Sat	@	Texas-San Antonio	97%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Lamar	100%	W
9/28	Sat	@	*West Virginia	91%	W
10/5	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	84%	W
10/19	Sat	vs.	*TCU	79%	W
10/26	Sat	@	*Iowa State	85%	W
11/2	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	86%	W
11/9	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	99%	W
11/16	Sat	@	*Texas	36%	L
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	84%	W
12/7	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	77%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 8%

If Oklahoma State is improved this year—and consistent in their performances—they shouldn't have much trouble with the majority of their schedule, as we make them a pretty strong favorite in every game except for one: Texas.

The Pokes open against Mississippi State in Houston and have to win that one to be taken seriously as a top team. UTSA and Lamar should be gimmes, too. West Virginia on the road and Kansas State at home should be solid wins, too, as both of those teams shouldn't be nearly as good as last year. TCU is going to be better in 2013 but the Cowboys get the Horned Frogs at home. Iowa State and Texas Tech are both on the road but aren't expected to be in the top half of the conference, and Kansas at home is another near-gimme.

Then Oklahoma State travels to Texas and it's probably a loss, but the odds aren't prohibitive. Baylor and Oklahoma are at home this year and that makes the Cowboys favorites in both. Apart from the Texas game, inconsistency could also derail Oklahoma State this year; any slipup or complacency and any of those high-win-percentage games could be an upset. It's also possible that OK State isn't good enough to run through their schedule like that. We pick them 11-1 game-by-game while the cumulative odds show a probably more reasonable 10-2, and a nearly 10% chance to go undefeated.

We rank Oklahoma State the #2 team in the Big Twelve and well inside the top ten nationally so by rights that should mean a BCS Bowl berth. Things never go to plan with the BCS but in our scenario they end up in the Sugar Bowl against former Big Twelve conference-mate Texas A&M.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #7 Ohio State Buckeyes

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Ohio State Buckeyes  (Big Ten #1; Leaders #1)

#7	2012 Results	AP #3 USA NE	Strength:#21  Success:#4  Overall:#12
		Record: 12-0	Bowl: None (ineligible last year)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #2 | USA #2 | Lindy's #2 | Athlon #2 | Steele #2
		Record: 10-2	Bowl: Rose (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

We believe Ohio State was overrated last year as they survived numerous close calls against an easy schedule. This year, however, they'll be as good as people thought they were last season, but we still don't agree with the unanimous #2 designation. Since they face a relatively easy slate again, the Buckeyes have a solid chance to repeat at 12-0.

Offense 9 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #20 (raw) #19 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #7 (adjusted)

Drastic improvement in the Buckeye offense should drive their gains as a team this year as Braxton Miller gets in the thick of the Heisman race.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #106 (raw) #102 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #101
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #79 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #86

Ohio State was still a bad passing team in 2012. They ranked #113 in 2011 and we projected a modest improvement to #85 and they didn't even get there. So anyone thinking Ohio State is suddenly going to have a strong dual-threat attack should reconsider. Braxton Miller (2,039 yards, 15 TDs, 6 int) improved from 54% to 58% in accuracy and he should step it up again as almost all of last year's receivers are back. The clear top two are Corey Brown (669 yards) and Devin Smith (618, 6 TDs), with Brown having twice as many catches and Smith a 20.6 per-catch average. The line gave up 29 sacks which is terrible for such a low-volume passing attack but far better than 2011's 46, and they will move toward correcting it further as four starters return. We project another incremental improvement and this time they should make it all the way there.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #10 (raw) #13 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #6 (adj.)

This is where the action is in Ohio State football and where Braxton Miller really makes his impact. Miller led the team with 1,271 yards (13 TDs) and that's after subtracting 174 sack yards. Top RB Carlos Hyde (970 yards, 16 TDs) led the more traditional running game, and three others had over 100 yards and they all return. The offensive line returns four starters, all of them seniors: Jack Mewhort, Corey Linsley, Andrew Norwell, and Marcus Hall. Hyde will miss the first three games and Rod Smith (215) the first one due to suspensions for off-field activities but the ground game will be top ten level when everyone is present.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #17    Pass Defense  per-game: #71   Per-attempt: #29
Defense 4 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #32 (raw) #35 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #46	'12 picks: #41
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #39 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #58	'13 picks: #10

OSU's defense wasn't great last year and with just four starters back it doesn't look like it will be in 2013; we project no real improvement except a pickup in interceptions. The defensive line is a huge question mark as all four starters are gone including sacks leader John Simon (9). At linebacker one starter returns, top tackler Ryan Shazier (115 tackles, 5 sacks, 12 tackles for loss, 11 pass breakups) who should be a leading defensive player of the year candidate. That's just one starter back in the front seven, but Ohio State plays a lot of 4-2-5 and three starters return to the secondary: Christian Bryant (12 pass breakups), Bradley Roby (17 pass breakups), and C.J. Barnett. The team had 14 interceptions which is low for so many breakups and this year that total should climb. Although they return just 4 starters those are the team's 4 top tacklers and given OSU's recruiting level the defense shouldn't slip much, provided the replacement d-line is as competent in practice as they are on paper.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Drew Basil (8 of 11 FG) is back and he will also take over for departing punter Ben Buchanan (41.0 average).
• Return Game:  Lots of bodies available here. Rod Smith (23.3 average) and Devin Smith (18.4) will return kickoffs again, and Jordan Hall is available as Smith is out at least one game. Corey Brown averaged 12.3 yards per punt return with 2 touchdowns; Chris Fields had a TD return in 2011.
• Turnovers projection:  Other than the defense getting more interceptions (see Defense), nothing much here.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #7          2012 Recruiting Rank: #2
Ohio State's recruiting machine keeps reporting good results, and the Buckeyes are one of a handful of teams with consecutive top-ten classes. We rank this year's group #2 in the Big Ten behind Michigan; it's extra-superstar recruits are LB Mike Mitchell of Plano, TX and DB Vonn Bell of Rossville, GA. Urban Meyer's first season couldn't have been more successful than the 12-0 they achieved as probation didn't allow for participation in the Big Ten title game or bowl game; the players should be plenty hungry as a result.

2012 Recap 
How good was Ohio State last year? It's worth knowing where the team is coming from before this season. Though they finished #3 in the AP poll and #4 in our Success rankings, they were just #21 in Strength, suggesting they got quite lucky. And their game results bear that out, with several very close wins over questionable opposition. They beat Miami (Ohio) 56-10 and 10-4 Central Florida 31-16, both pretty good wins. They had trouble with 3-9 Cal, winning 35-28 in the end, and beating UAB just 29-15 is not impressive. Still, they were 4-0, and 5-0 once they topped Michigan State 17-16. The 63-38 Nebraska win might have been their best game, but they followed it with a 52-49 win over 4-8 Indiana and then needed overtime to beat Purdue 29-22. The last four games were an improvement as they beat Penn State 35-23 and Illinois 52-22, but they still needed overtime to beat Wisconsin and edged Michigan 26-21. In all that's half their games won by a touchdown or less including two overtime games, and three of those close games involved teams with losing records. Strengthwise their 2012 season isn't much better than 1998 Tulane as far as undefeated teams go.

Last year's prediction: We looked for a big improvement in the Buckeyes, up to #18 in the nation. That part was pretty much on target. The projection for their record was 8-4, or 9-3 game-by-game; we had them losing to Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Michigan. They won those games by 1 point, in overtime, and by 5 points. There's a fine line between 9-3 and 12-0.

2013 Outlook

Ohio State 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Buffalo	95%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	San Diego State	90%	W
9/14	Sat	@	California	94%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Florida A&M	100%	W
9/28	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	80%	W
10/5	Sat	@	*Northwestern	65%	W
10/19	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	96%	W
10/26	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	93%	W
11/2	Sat	@	*Purdue	92%	W
11/16	Sat	@	*Illinois	98%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	91%	W
11/30	Sat	@	*Michigan	56%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 17%

Can the Buckeyes repeat their 12-0 feat of last season? When you consider how much better they should be, it seems reasonable. They did it last year, why not this year with a better team?

And we do favor them in every single game. The non-conference opponents should be little more than cannon fodder, but they go from Florida A&M to Wisconsin in a week's time. An even harder contest follows as the face Northwestern on the road, and if there's a "trap" game on the schedule this is it. The next five opponents don't have much of a chance, though in cumulative terms we give a 27% chance of losing to one of Iowa, Penn State, Purdue, Illinois, or Indiana. The Michigan road game is the toughest on their schedule from a pre-season vantage point; the Buckeyes are a narrow favorite.

The cumulative odds come up with a win expectation of just under 10.5, a split between 10-2 and 11-1. But 11-1 is the most likely result and they have a > 50% chance of reaching 11 or 12 wins. They have about a 1 in 6 chance of going 12-0 again. If they have last year's luck in close games it's a foregone conclusion; if they get the reverse luck, however, they'll have at least 2 losses.

Ohio State should be in the Big Ten title game whether they beat Michigan or not, and they'd probably play Michigan again in either case. Since we only rank them #7 we don't project them into the national title game; instead they go to the Rose Bowl to face Pac-12 #2 Arizona State.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #8 Arizona State Sun Devils

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Arizona State Sun Devils  (Pac-12 #2; South #1)

#8	2012 Results	AP NR USA #33	Strength:#15  Success:#52  Overall:#21
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Beat Navy 62-28 (Fight Hunger)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #30 | USA #32 | Lindy's #37 | Athlon #23 | Steele #22
		Record: 9-3	Bowl: Rose (Eligibility odds: 99%)

Last year we downgraded ASU and instead they got better. This year we have them in the top ten, should they start worrying?

Offense 6 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #13 (raw) #13 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #6 (adjusted)

Todd Graham overhauled the offense last year and this season he hopes to fine-tune it.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #44 (raw) #41 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #113
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #24 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #110

Taylor Kelly (3,039 yards, 29 TDs, 9 int) had a great year running Todd Graham's system; he returns with backup Michael Eubank (330, 4:3) and six of last year's top 8 receivers. Tight end Chris Coyle led with 696 (5 TDs) and #3 D.J. Foster (533 yards) is back, too, while Rashad Ross (610) departs. The one problem area is QB protection (37 sacks allowed) but both QBs should make progress this year.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #25 (raw) #28 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #22 (adj.)

Three of ASU's four top rushers return: #1 Marion Grice (679 yards, 11 TDs) is back, #2 Cameron Marshall (583 yards, 9 TDs) is not. #3 was QB Taylor Kelly with 516 net yards, and #4 D.J. Foster (493) is also back. Backup QB Michael Eubank added 223. The offensive line returns three full-time starters from last year, Evan Finkenberg, Cody Koebensky, and Jamil Douglas. Losing Marshall hurts but there is plenty of talent as Deantre Lewis (539 yards in 2010) returns to RB and might recapture the form he had before a gunshot wound derailed his career.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #84    Pass Defense  per-game: #2   Per-attempt: #11
Defense 8 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #44 (raw) #32 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #2	'12 picks: #8
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #22 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #1	'13 picks: #3

Last season the pass defense was awesome as the Devils were top ten in sacks and interceptions, but the rushing defense was the weak point. This year the defensive line is solid as it returns all three starters including DT Will Sutton (13 sacks, 10.5 tackles for loss). Bolstering last year's #2 pass rush was Carl Bradford (11.5 sacks, 9 tackles for loss) who plays the hybrid LB/DE "Devil" position. The LB corps does lose #1 tackler Brandon McGee (113 tackles, 6.5 sacks) but Chris Young (12 tackles for loss) is also back. The secondary is without Keelan Johnson (5 interceptions) but two starters are back including Osahon Irabor (13 pass breakups) and they get transfer Marion Pollard who started at Eastern Michigan. The rush defense should improve and even if the pass D slips a bit they should come up with just as many big plays as they have our projected #1 pass rush.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Jon Mora (9 of 12 FGs) should reclaim the placekicking job but Alex Garoutte (6 of 11) might yet handle PATs where he is nearly automatic; both might lose their jobs to true freshman kicker Zane Gonzales. Another true freshman, Matt Haack, is set to take over as punter from Josh Hubner (47.1 average last year, #2 in the FBS).
• Return Game:  Jamal Miles (21.8 on kickoffs, 8.8 on punts) was last year's main return man and he's gone along with Rashad Ross who had a kickoff return touchdown. Robert Nelson, a former starter at CB, could be the go-to guy here.
• Turnovers projection:  We don't see much change here. Even though we move the defense up in our interceptions ranking we project fewer than last year's 21 picks because that's a hard amount to match.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #24          2012 Recruiting Rank: #45
Todd Graham remains in the same job for the first time in three years as his 2nd season with the Sun Devils begins. His 2nd recruiting class is naturally a lot better than his first during the transition year and ranks right in the middle of the Pac-12 which recruited very well this year as a conference.

2012 Recap
In retrospect Arizona State's schedule was bound to result in the kind of year they had—a great start, then a rocky road to the finish. With Northern Arizona (a 63-6 win) from the FCS and 2-10 Illinois (45-14) up front, and three disappointing Pac-12 teams (Utah, Cal, Colorado), the Sun Devils didn't play a winning FBS team in their first 6 games. They fell 24-20 to Missouri, who went 5-7 in their first year in the SEC. So even though they started 5-1, the tough teams were yet to come and they dropped four games in a row, three to ranked teams Oregon, UCLA, and Oregon State and one to pre-season #1 USC 38-31. They recovered to beat Washington State 46-7 and finally beat another bowl team as they defeated rival Arizona 41-34. The 62-48 bowl game win over Navy was one of their best on offense and pointed to a better 2013—if they can stop the run better.

Last year's prediction: Due to returning just 8 starters we downgraded last year's team to #62 and projected a 5-7 record; instead the defense improved a lot and they went 7-5 in the regular season.

2013 Outlook

ASU 2013 schedule & forecast
9/7	Sat	vs.	Sacramento State	100%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Wisconsin	78%	W
9/21	Sat	@	*Stanford	54%	W
9/28	Sat	vs.	*USC	73%	W
10/5	Sat	N	Notre Dame	66%	W
10/12	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	99%	W
10/19	Sat	vs.	*Washington	66%	W
10/31	Thu	@	*Washington State	84%	W
11/9	Sat	@	*Utah	87%	W
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	61%	W
11/23	Sat	@	*UCLA	58%	W
11/30	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	82%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 9-3  Odds of 12-0: 3%

Arizona State plays a tough schedule but we have them favored in every game. There are so many less-than-certain wins that the cumulative estimate calls for a 9-3 record and their odds of actually going 12-0 are just 3%.

After a gimme against Sacramento State the Sun Devils face Wisconsin, Stanford, USC, and Notre Dame all in a row—that's both of last year's Rose Bowl teams, last year's pre-season #1, and last year's BCS runner-up. But we think they can win them all. Or rather, each game looks like a win, but winning all four is just a 1 in 5 proposition. The Badgers they get at home but Stanford is a road game and possibly the toughest of the four. Getting USC at home gives them an advantage but they were beat 38-21 last year. The Notre Dame game is in Arlington. If the Sun Devils can go 3-1 here they're probably as good as we think, but 2-2 would be nothing to be ashamed about. If they aren't any better than last year's squad there's a chance to go 0-4 here and the hope for a great season is pretty much shot.

The rest of the Pac-12 schedule is littered with landmines like Washington, Oregon State, and UCLA, with the first two games at home and the latter on the road. They get rival Arizona at home this year and avoid playing Oregon altogether unless they make it to the Pac-12 title game. Though we don't really expect ASU to go 12-0, going by our rankings they are the top team in the South and would face the Ducks for the ACC title, lose, and be relegated to the Rose Bowl where they'd face Ohio State (or someone else like Michigan if OSU makes the national title game).

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #9 Florida State Seminoles

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Florida State Seminoles  (ACC #1; Atlantic #1)

#9	2012 Results	AP #10 USA #8	Strength:#6  Success:#14  Overall:#13
		Record: 12-2	Bowl: Beat Northern Illinois 31-10 (Orange)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #11 | USA #12 | Lindy's #13 | Athlon #15 | Steele #4
		Record: 10-2	Bowl: Orange (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

This year's key games are the same as last year's: Clemson for the ACC title, and Florida to have a shot at the national title. And of course they have to avoid upsets to teams like NC State.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #9 (raw) #17 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #30 (adjusted)

FSU had a top ten scoring offense in raw figures but played two FCS teams that juiced the numbers; when corrected it was still in the top 25 but may slip out this year.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #40 (raw) #40 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #65
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #54 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #39

Transition at QB: E.J. Manuel (3,392 yards, 23 TDs, 10 int) moves on and backup Clint Trickett (272 yards) transferred to West Virginia when he saw the writing on the wall that redshirt freshman Jameis Winston would be the new starter at FSU. He inherits an uncertain situation at receiver. Seven of the top 10 pass catchers were back as of spring: #1 Rashad Greene (741 yards, 6 TDs) and #2 Kenny Shaw (532) are back while #3 Rodney Smith (524) is not. But the corps has suffered some attrition since then; #5 Greg Dent (355) was charged with rape and indefinitely suspended, and #10 Jarred Haggins is out for the year with a knee injury. 2010 starter Willie Haulstead was declared academically ineligible, tight ends Kevin Haplea and Jeremy Kerr are out for the season with injuries while Christos Kourtzidis transferred, Marvin Bracy opted off the team for a pro track and field career, and Greene could miss time early with a finger injury.  Winston can count on better protection than the line offered last year as almost every starter is back on the O-line and then some. Overall we look for an adjustment period and lower numbers with the receiver woes, but some are declaring Winston the next Johnny Manziel and if that's true all bets are off.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #24 (raw) #33 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #33 (adj.)

Florida State had three main rushers last year and two are back: #1 Chris Thompson (687 yards, 5 TDs) is gone while Devonta Freeman (660 yards, 8 TDs) and James Wilder (635, 11) are back. Three other players who topped 150 yards are gone as well, and Thompson had the best per-carry average (7.5) by far so the backfield may be a bit weaker but the offensive line will make up for that. Four starters return from last season: senior Brian Stork is joined by juniors Tre Jackson, Josue Matias, and Cameron Erving. Moreover, 2011 starter Bobby Hart moves into the open slot at right tackle and another 2011 starter, Jacob Fahrenkrug, is back from medical redshirt.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #11    Pass Defense  per-game: #4   Per-attempt: #3
Defense 4 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #6 (raw) #7 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #40	'12 picks: #88
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #7 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #70	'13 picks: #65

The defensive line is going through big changes as all four starters are gone; losing Tank Carradine (11 sacks) and Bjoern Warner (13 sacks) pretty much guarantees the Seminoles won't approach last year's total of 36 sacks. Last season's near-top-ten rushing defense is bound to fall, too. They do get 2011 starter Jacobbi McDaniel back but D-line dominance was a trademark of last year's D and they'll have to re-establish that anew. At linebacker two starters are gone but #1 tackler Christian Jones (95 tackles) is back and backup Telvin Smith (8.5 tackles for loss) was the #3 tackler so he was as valuable as any starter last season. The secondary returns three starters and should continue their exemplary play and increase last year's 11 interceptions. So despite losing half its starters to the NFL the defense might be just as good this season provided the defensive line comes together.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Carson Beatty (38.3 yards) returns but excellent kicker Dustin Hopkins (25 of 30 FG last year) departs; replacing him will be redshirt freshman Robert Aguayo.
• Return Game:  Rashad Greene had 2 touchdown returns on punts and Tyler Hunter added another; they both averaged over 15 yards per return. On kickoffs Karlos Williams had the best average (26.2).
• Turnovers projection:  FSU should have better luck with fumbles this year and more interceptions on defense; the wild card is new QB Winston and whether he reduces or increases interceptions thrown.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #11          2012 Recruiting Rank: #8
Jimbo Fisher is more than keeping up in the recruiting game, with classes that lead the ACC and would hold their own in the SEC. Two defensive players are the 2013 class' standouts: linebacker Matthew Thomas from Miami and d-back Jalen Ramsey from Nashville are among the top few at their positions in the nation. Thomas wanted out of his letter of intent but he eventually reconsidered.

2012 Recap
Florida State kicked the year off with a cupcake in Murray State and they dominated 69-3; they would have dominated Savannah State even worse but the game was essentially called after 30 minutes of play due to weather at 55-0. They beat Wake Forest 52-0 with Clemson waiting. Given FSU's level of competition so far it's not surprising that the Tigers put up a pretty good fight, but FSU prevailed 49-37 and had the national title in their sights. But the next game at South Florida (30-17) was their worst performance, and you could see the loss of focus. Up 16-3 against North Carolina State in the 4th quarter, the focus dropped too low and they lost, 17-16. From there they ran through the rest of the ACC, all good teams, but prior to the ACC title game they hosted Florida and found out they really weren't one of the nation's very top teams as they lost 37-26. A week later they had to face the unorthodox Yellow Jackets and while the defense did a great job, the offense perhaps showed the dejection from the Florida loss in the 21-15 win. They kept their focus against Northern Illinois and won the Orange Bowl easily, 31-10.

Last year's prediction: We had FSU #5 last year and they did finish #6 in Strength; we projected an 11-1 regular-season record but the slip-up at NC State gave the Seminoles an extra loss.

2013 Outlook

FSU 2013 schedule & forecast
9/2	Mon	@	*Pittsburgh	92%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Nevada	99%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Bethune-Cookman	100%	W
9/28	Sat	@	*Boston College	82%	W
10/5	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	95%	W
10/19	Sat	@	*Clemson	50%	L
10/26	Sat	vs.	*N.C. State	96%	W
11/2	Sat	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	68%	W
11/9	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	95%	W
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	93%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	Idaho	99%	W
11/30	Sat	@	Florida	51%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 10%

FSU's season looks like 10 pretty clear wins and two tossup games that will determine whether the 'Noles compete for the ACC and national titles. This assumes that they avoid upsets like NC State last year, Wake Forest the year before, etc. Miami looks like the only other really tough game and they have the Canes at home, so we focus on the two key contests.

First, Clemson on October 19th should determine which team represents the Atlantic division in the ACC title game. Then on November 30th—if FSU has made it this far undefeated—the game at Florida could have national title implications. Though we rank the Seminoles higher than both teams they're on the road in both games.

This makes the straight-up estimate conflict with the cumulative estimate which doesn't pick winners game-by-game. So basically the Seminoles are two coin flips away from undefeated which should imply a 1 in 4 chance, but given their propensity for getting upset somewhere along the line the 10% chance listed above seems reasonable. Split the two games and most likely they either miss out on the ACC title game, or have a late loss to the Gators which kills their national title dreams.

For our bowl projections, however, we go by our rankings and that means we put FSU in the Orange Bowl despite having them "losing" to Clemson. So it's back to Miami for the Seminoles, where they might face Michigan since the Orange Bowl has first at-large pick ahead of the Sugar and Fiesta.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #10 Oregon State Beavers

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Oregon State Beavers  (Pac-12 #3; North #2)

#10	2012 Results	AP #20 USA #19	Strength:#10  Success:#23  Overall:#16
		Record: 9-4	Bowl: Lost to Texas 31-27 (Alamo)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #25 | USA #23 | Lindy's #31 | Athlon #25 | Steele #23
		Record: 9-3	Bowl: Alamo (Eligibility odds: 99.5%)

Pretty much every forecaster thinks Oregon State is going to be just as good as they were last year. Difference is, we ranked them #10 (in Strength) at the end of the season, and there they remain.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #36 (raw) #20 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #12 (adjusted)

With two good quarterbacks Oregon State has a problem most teams would love to have.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #20 (raw) #16 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #87
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #8 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #79

Sean Mannion (2,446 yards, 15 TDs, 13 int) and Cody Vaz (1,480 yards, 11 TDs, 3 int) have a quarterback controversy of sorts going on. Most think Vaz will get the nod but the starter has yet to be determined. Either way the team knows a great backup is available. The receiver corps' dynamic duo of Markus Wheaton (1,244 yards, 11 TDs) and Brandin Cooks (1,151 yards, 5 TDs) will be no more as Wheaton departs, but four others who had 150+ yards are back. QB protection wasn't that bad (34 sacks) considering the volume of throws in this offense, and with four starters back the line should reduce that. There was a big difference between QBs, as Mannion was sacked 12 times vs. 309 (3.9%) attempts and Vaz was sacked 22 times vs. 185 (11.9%). We assume both QBs will see plenty of time but if only one does that probably means he's doing pretty damn well. The passing game should rank in the top ten (after adjustment for opposition) this year.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #102 (raw) #91 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #80 (adj.)

Oregon State's two top rushers from a year ago, Storm Woods (940 yards, 13 TDs) and Terron Ward (415 yards, 6 TDs) are back, while numbers 3 and 4 depart (combined 411). The offensive line is in good shape with four returning starters: seniors Grant Enger and Josh Andrews, junior Michael Phillip, and sophomore Isaac Seumalo. The Beavers run a passing offense (neither QB a runner) so progress will be limited but should occur.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #14    Pass Defense  per-game: #47   Per-attempt: #14
Defense 7 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #24 (raw) #11 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #79	'12 picks: #7
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #12 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #87	'13 picks: #12

Two starting defensive linemen return to the 4-3 including Scott Crichton (9 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss). Two starting linebackers return as well, #1 tackler Michael Doctor (83 tackles, 11 tackles for loss) and A.J. Alexander, who will probably miss the first few games with a knee injury. The defense probably won't have 20 interceptions again as the secondary loses Jordan Poyer (7 int) but Rashaad Reynolds (13 pass breakups) returns. The defense should be roughly as strong as last season; there may be some weakness in the 2nd string but the top five tacklers are back.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both Trevor Romaine (16 of 18 field goals) and Keith Kostol (41.9 yards/punt) are back.
• Return Game:  Terron Ward (22.5 average on kickoffs) is back but corner Jordan Poyer (7.1 on punts) is not. New juco corner Steven Nelson may take over.
• Turnovers projection:  Oregon State's fumble luck will probably run out this year, and they won't match 20 picks on defense either. The interception situation on offense is complicated by who starts and even then we don't really forecast a big drop. So overall, turnovers may turn against the Beavers compared to last year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #26          2012 Recruiting Rank: #53
Mike Riley brings in a pretty darn good class of recruits for 2012; it's roughly average for the Pac-12 who has about seven teams crowding the bottom of the top 25. Their sole consensus blue chip is Dashon Hunt, DB from the L.A. area.

2012 Recap
Oregon State started strong and after three games had arguably accomplished more than any team at that point; their opening game vs. Nicholls State had been postponed so they never had a "warmup" game but they edged Wisconsin 10-7 with a fantastic defensive effort, then beat UCLA 27-20, and Arizona 38-35. They made it to 6-0 before being upset at Washington 20-17, and after that fell to top ten teams Stanford (27-23) and Oregon (48-24) while blasting California 62-14 and Nicholls State 77-3 in the rescheduled game. Though they won early with defense, those two offensive performances were "off-the-charts", along with scoring 42 at stingy BYU. The BYU game featured Vaz at QB while Mannion played the beginning and end of the season.

Last year's prediction: We had the Beavers barely making it to a bowl game at 6-6, not coasting into one at 9-3.

2013 Outlook

Oregon State 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Eastern Washington	98%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	Hawaii	99%	W
9/14	Sat	@	*Utah	85%	W
9/21	Sat	@	San Diego State	80%	W
9/28	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	98%	W
10/12	Sat	@	*Washington State	82%	W
10/19	Sat	@	*California	93%	W
10/26	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	68%	W
11/1	Fri	vs.	*USC	70%	W
11/16	Sat	@	*Arizona State	38%	L
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Washington	63%	W
11/29	Fri	@	*Oregon	19%	L
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 9-3  Odds of 12-0: 1%

Oregon State's first two games could hardly be easier—actually they could because Eastern Washington (11-3 last year) is a very good FCS team. But they and Hawaii have little chance of beating the Beavers. The road games at Utah and San Diego State could be challenging if those teams are significantly better than we project. Colorado is another near-gimme. The games start to get tougher but since they get both Stanford and USC at home we favor them even in those, too. They face Arizona State and Oregon both on the road, however, and those we call losses.

If the game-by-game projections come true, last year's 6-0 start will seem like nothing as they go 9-0 before losing the ASU. But the cumulative projection says that going 9-3 like last year is the more reasonable assumption. Still, their four toughest games are in the last five weeks, so they could win 7 or more games before facing a loss even at 9-3.

In any case, if they are the #3 Pac-12 team they'll go back to the Alamo Bowl and face the #4 Big Twelve team which may be TCU this year. Same bowl, different Texas team.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #11 Mississippi Rebels

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Mississippi Rebels  (SEC #4; West #3)

#11	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#27  Success:#61  Overall:#33
		Record: 7-6	Bowl: Beat Pitt 38-17 (Compass)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #36 | USA #33 | Lindy's #29 | Athlon #33 | Steele #16
		Record: 8-4	Bowl: Outback (Eligibility odds: 98%)

If not for Phil Steele's ranking, ours would be another surprise team pick. The oddsmakers' early lines, however, tend to concur with an optimistic assessment of the Rebels.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #46 (raw) #23 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #9 (adjusted)

Already a top 25 offense (despite their #46 raw scoring rank), the Ole Miss O could be in the top ten this season.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #49 (raw) #43 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #89
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #20 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #70

Quarterback Bo Wallace (2,994 yards, 22 TDs, 17 int) is back as are five of his top six receivers including the top three, Donte Moncrief (979 yards, 10 TDs), Vince Sanders (504 yards), and Ja-Mes Logan (490). The O-line returns four starters so protection should be better than last year's 34 sacks. Wallace should have a very productive year and if he cuts down on the picks that's icing on the cake.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #51 (raw) #47 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #27 (adj.)

Ole Miss had six players who netted over 100 yards and five of them are back. Jeff Scott led with 846 yards (6 TDs) while QB Bo Wallace was #2 with 390 (8 TDs). Backup QB Barry Brunetti was #4 with 277. WR/RB/QB Randall Mackey (325) is the only loss. The offensive line loses one starter, returning seniors Evan Swindall, Pierce Burton, and Emmanuel McCray and junior Aaron Morris. It looks like we don't quite put the running game in the top 25 to match the passing game, but it's close.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #22    Pass Defense  per-game: #57   Per-attempt: #37
Defense 8 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #61 (raw) #47 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #17	'12 picks: #24
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #26 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #19	'13 picks: #15

Mississippi's pass rush should stay about the same—very high level—despite losing Uriah Grant (5 sacks) as C.J. Johnson (6.5 sacks) returns. They also have Issac Gross (7.5 tackles for loss) so the rushing defense should be good again. At linebacker in the 4-2-5 #1 tackler Denzel Nkemdiche (82 tackles) is back with #3 Mike Marry (8 tackles for loss). And returning to the secondary are three of the team's top five tacklers including #2 Cody Prewitt. That's all six of the top six tacklers back. The 2013 Ole Miss defense might be close to top 25 quality.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Neither kicker Bryson Rose (18 of 28 field goals last year) or punter Jim Broadway (41.1 average) is back. Seniors Andrew Ritter and Tyler Campbell are the replacements; both redshirted last year. Campbell averaged 43.6 in 2011 and led the nation in 2010 at 46.4. Ritter has performed only kickoffs in college play.
• Return Game:  Jaylen Walton (24.7 average on kickoffs with 1 touchdown return) and Korvic Neat (5.1 ave on punt returns) are both back.
• Turnovers projection:  QB Bo Wallace should improve on last year's 17 picks, but it's impossible to tell how much (we assume just a few), and that might be offset by less good luck on fumble recoveries.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #10          2012 Recruiting Rank: #59
If there were ever a stark example of the coaching-transition-year recruiting blues, Mississippi in 2012 was it, as a #16 class in 2011 (Houston Nutt's last class) was followed by Hugh Freeze's #59 class. There's normally a big bounce-back in a coach's 2nd year and here is Freeze's bounce, a borderline top ten class. Amazingly it ranks #6 in the SEC. They got a trio of the highest-rated recruits at defensive end, offensive tackle, and wide receivers. DE Robert Nkemdiche from Georgia is Ole Miss star Denzel's brother. OT Laremy Tunsil from Florida is ranked #1 by some at his position. And WR Laquon Treadwell comes from Illinois. If Freeze can continue getting players of this caliber from other states Ole Miss football is in for a renaissance.

2012 Recap
Mississippi kicked off the season with a couple of decent wins but got destroyed by Texas 66-31. They shut out Tulane 39-0 to start 3-1 with two of the best teams in the country coming up. They did better against Alabama and Texas A&M than most teams did, losing only by 19 on the road to the Tide and by 3 points to the Aggies. The Rebels took advantage of the terrible seasons that Auburn and Arkansas were having to notch two more wins, and at 5-3 only needed one more win for bowl eligibility. They'd have to wait, however, as Georgia thrashed them 37-10, Vanderbilt beat them by a point, and LSU beat them on a last-minute touchdown 41-35. But they beat rival Mississippi State with style, 41-24. In the Compass Bowl they beat Pitt 38-17 and hope to carry that momentum into 2013.

Last year's prediction: We forecast a big improvement from 2011 when they ranked #94 and were 2-10; we put the Rebels 20 positions higher at #74. In the SEC though that doesn't amount to much; the only wins we thought they'd get were Central Arkansas, UTEP, and Tulane. We were right on those, but Ole Miss got three more wins plus a bowl win and finished #27 in Strength, a huge 67-position leap.

2013 Outlook

Mississippi 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	63%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	SE Missouri State	100%	W
9/14	Sat	@	Texas	25%	L
9/28	Sat	@	*Alabama	11%	L
10/5	Sat	@	*Auburn	79%	W
10/12	Sat	vs.	*Texas A&M	34%	L
10/19	Sat	vs.	*LSU	65%	W
10/26	Sat	vs.	Idaho	99%	W
11/9	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	96%	W
11/16	Sat	vs.	Troy	99%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	79%	W
11/28	Thu	@	*Mississippi State	70%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 98%

Four of Mississippi's first five games are road games, and if they're 3-2 they should be satisfied. The opener at Vanderbilt will be a good litmus test to tell us whether the Rebels are as good as we think they'll be. The next three games probably reveal very little and we expect a 1-2 mark in those. Auburn on the road is another good test but one Ole Miss should pass easily.

Then they embark on an unusual 6-game home stand and they should win all but the first game of that (Texas A&M). We take the Rebels over LSU, even, and after that they coast with Idaho, Arkansas, and Troy before Missouri provides another test. Arkansas and Troy are wild cards, too, depending on how much they bounce back this year. But overall it should be a good home series. The bad thing is they might get so used to playing at home that they rival game at Mississippi State could be harder than it should be, but the Rebels should have momentum then and win that one, too.

Playing Texas and Alabama back-to-back gives the Rebels a chance to establish themselves as one of the top teams in the nation, and winning even one would cause quit a stir. But both games are on the road so we give them little hope. It looks like a pretty clear 9-3 season but the close wins make it add up to 8-4. As the #4-rated team in the SEC we put the Rebels in the Outback Bowl vs. the Big Ten #4 team, Wisconsin.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #12 Washington Huskies

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Washington Huskies  (Pac-12 #4; North #3)

#12	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#50  Success:#27  Overall:#48
		Record: 7-6	Bowl: Lost to Boise State 28-26 (Las Vegas)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #34 | USA #43 | Lindy's #30 | Athlon #37 | Steele #30
		Record: 8-4	Bowl: Holiday (Eligibility odds: 99%)

Each year it seems we have one "surprise" team, an outlier on the upside compared to the other forecasters. Last year it was Vanderbilt, and that turned out to be a great pick. The year before it was Cal, which didn't.

Offense 9 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #89 (raw) #72 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #21 (adjusted)

Can Washington go from having a very mediocre offense to having a top 25 rushing and passing game? With their quarterback, top running back, and all significant receivers back, and with an offensive line overcrowded with returning starters? Yes, they can.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #81 (raw) #77 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #110
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #23 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #88

Keith Price (2,726 yards, 19 TDs, 13 int) had a "junior slump" last year, with all his numbers declining (except interceptions, up by 2). As a senior his stats should look more like they did in 2011 and with all his receivers back it should be easy. The top six are back led by Kasen Williams (878 yards, 6 TDs) and superstar tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins (850 yards, 7 TDs). Both those two had drunk driving infractions in the off-season and either or both might miss the first game (Boise State), or not. The offensive line should be a lot stronger an improve significantly on last year's 38 sacks. We see a huge bounce-back for Price and co. in the passing offense.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #86 (raw) #67 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #25 (adj.)

Bishop Sankey (1,439 yards, 16 TDs) is back and he was most of the ground game last year. Kendyl Taylor added 209 and Erich Wilson 145. Wilson transferred to San Jose State and no one else had 100 yards last year. They do get Jesse Callier back from medical redshirt; his best year was 2010 (433 yards). The offensive line should help the group exceed last year's totals as only one starter is gone. Micah Hatchie, Dexter Charles, and Ben Riva return along with half-time starters Mike Criste and James Atoe, and they get 2011 starters Erik Kohler and Colin Tanigawa back from injury. That is a stacked line, and should help the ground game bust into the top 25.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #57    Pass Defense  per-game: #12   Per-attempt: #27
Defense 8 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #42 (raw) #25 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #50	'12 picks: #19
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #17 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #23	'13 picks: #19

Washington's defense wasn't bad once you correct for the fact that they are in the high-scoring Pac-12. The team's pass rush should be much stronger; the team loses only a few players who recorded a sack and leaders Andrew Hudson (6.5 sacks) and Josh Shirley (6.5) return to the defensive line. All of the linebackers return including #1 tackler John Timu, and two starters return in the secondary including #2 tackler Sean Parker. The defense also features a number of full- or part-time starters from 2010 and 2011 such as Hau'oli Jamora on the d-line who is back from injury. We expect a solid improvement in Washington's defense.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter/placekicker Travis Coons (9 of 14 FG, 39.8 punting average) is back as a senior, but he'll face competition from Korey Durkee (36.9 average) at punter.
• Return Game:  Jaydon Mickens (21.5 average) handled the most kickoffs last year and probably will again, while Cody Bruns (8.2 average) took the most punts. Bruns departs and Kasen Williams—who returned punts in 2011 (9.6 average) could take over.
• Turnovers projection:  Not much difference is seen overall.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #16          2012 Recruiting Rank: #20
Steve Sarkisian brings another top 25 class to Seattle, and it might rank #2 in the Pac-12 (it's well behind #1 UCLA and slightly ahead of six other teams.

2012 Recap
Washington played some really good games, and some really crap games. Early on, they beat San Diego State but were destroyed by LSU 41-3. Then they the upset Stanford 17-13, one of the Cardinals' only two losses. The Huskies lost three in a row in the mid-season, putting them at 3-4 and their bowl hopes in jeopardy, but only the 52-17 beatdown by Arizona was an embarrassment; they did about as well as expected at Oregon and against USC. Their 4-game winning streak was a thing of beauty, particularly on defense, as they added a win over 9-3 Oregon State. Which made it all the more surprising that they lost their final to Washington State in overtime. They fought with Boise State but lost 28-26 in the Las Vegas Bowl to finish 7-6.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Washington #46—pretty good as they finished #50 in our Strength rating—but were torn on whether they'd be bowl-eligible. We concluded probably not, giving them a 49% chance to reach 6 wins.

2013 Outlook

Washington 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Boise State	84%	W
9/14	Sat	@	Illinois	97%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Idaho State	100%	W
9/28	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	77%	W
10/5	Sat	@	*Stanford	47%	L
10/12	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	29%	L
10/19	Sat	@	*Arizona State	34%	L
10/26	Sat	vs.	*California	96%	W
11/9	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	98%	W
11/15	Fri	@	*UCLA	51%	W
11/23	Sat	@	*Oregon State	37%	L
11/29	Fri	vs.	*Washington State	89%	W
Straight up: 8-4  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 99%

Boise State is being touted as a huge game, and with the Broncos in the AP top 25 it may be, but we consider Washington a heavy favorite to get revenge at home for last year's bowl loss, with or without their two top receivers. The Huskies should get three more wins before travelling to Stanford, a game we consider a tossup.

The next two games—Oregon at home, ASU on the road—are probable losses for the Huskies. But then the schedule gets very friendly: they play Cal at home, have a week off, and Colorado at home before taking on UCLA in Los Angeles. Since we also consider that game a tossup the scheduling beforehand—two "easy" teams and a week off—might really tip the game Washington's way.

But Oregon State on the road is another probable loss, adding up to a 7-5, 8-4, or 9-3 season depending on how you call the tossups, and an 8-4 cumulative estimate (leaning toward 9-3). So even though we project a monstrous improvement for the Huskies and almost rank them in the top ten, it might not look like that kind of season. 4-loss teams usually don't end up near the top ten; ironically, in order to finish where we rank them pre-season they'll have to overachieve a bit, perhaps by winning both close games and winning their bowl game.

A bowl game win can gain a team a lot of respect, and the #4 Pac-12 team goes to the Holiday Bowl vs. the Big Twelve's #5 or 6 team, Kansas State or Baylor. So they might get a rematch of their 2011 bowl game in addition to the opening-game rematch of last year's bowl.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #16 Florida Gators

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Florida Gators  (SEC #6; East #3)

#16	2012 Results	AP #9 USA #10	Strength:#11  Success:#2  Overall:#4
		Record: 11-2	Bowl: Lost to Louisville 33-23 (Sugar)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #10 | USA #10 | Lindy's #12 | Athlon #13 | Steele #12
		Record: 8-4	Bowl: Gator (Eligibility odds: 93%)

When a team has a great defense and poor offense it's hard to pick who they're going to beat or lose to, since all of their games tend to be close. Florida might have another great year but their schedule is so tough we'd guess their record won't be as good as last year.

Offense 4 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #76 (raw) #50 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #61 (adjusted)

Florida didn't have a great offense last year and this season doesn't look any different.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #119 (raw) #116 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #107
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #119 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #104

Florida's passing game was amazingly tepid last year and if it's possible it might be even worse. Jeff Driskel (1,646 yards, 12 TDs, 5 int) is back but three of the top four receivers are gone. Jordan Reed was #1 with 559 yards and he departs, but #2 Quinton Dunbar (383) returns. Andre Debose (432 yards in 2011) was set to be back but tore his ACL. Florida allowed 39 sacks last year vs. just 288 attempts, which is really, really bad but this year should be at least a little better. The passing game will be weak unless the focus of the offense shifts, and Florida is a running team these days.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #39 (raw) #25 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #37 (adj.)

Mike Gillislee (1,152 yards, 10 TDs) leaves the backfield, so Matt Jones (275 yards) will be the starting RB. QB Driskel was #2 with 413 yards and three of four others who had 100+ return. So there are numerous options there to replace their main guy. The offensive line returns Jonotthan Harrison and Jon Halapio, but Halapio will be out early and Chaz Green is now out for the year with a shoulder injury. Max Garcia, who started at Maryland, is eligible this year however. The ground game will still be strong and drive the offense but may be down a bit for losing Gillislee.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #5    Pass Defense  per-game: #6   Per-attempt: #1
Defense 4 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #5 (raw) #2 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #31	'12 picks: #3
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #5 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #30	'13 picks: #13

Florida's defense won most of their games for them, and despite quite a few personnel losses it will still be strong. The defensive line loses three starters including Shariff Floyd (10 tackles for loss), but the Gators get 2011 starter Ronald Powell back. At linebacker #1 tackler Josh Evans (83 tackles) is gone and Antonio Morrison will miss a few games serving suspension for a couple of off-season incidents. The secondary was arguably the best in the nation as Florida was #1 in per-attempt pass defense. Matt Elam (9 tackles for loss, 4 interceptions) is gone but Marcus Roberson (12 pass breakups) returns, and 2011 starter Cody Riggs is back. So despite losing upward of 7 starters, the two they get back from '11 will help keep the defense almost as tight.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Kyle Christie (45.8 yards) is back but kicker Caleb Sturgis (24 of 28 field goals) is gone; his replacement will be senior Brad Phillips or redshirt freshman Austin Hardin.
• Return Game:  Andre Debose averaged 28.3 yards on kickoffs with 1 touchdown, and 9.3 yards on punt returns. He's out this year with an ACL tear, so Marcus Roberson will probably handle the most punts and Loucheiz Purifoy (23.9) will take kickoffs.
• Turnovers projection:  Florida has 20 interceptions on defense and it's unlikely they'll match that as 2/3 of the players who got an interception last year are gone.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #5          2012 Recruiting Rank: #6
Another great class for Will Muschamp; over the last two years only a handful of teams have recruited as well as Florida. Vernon Hargreaves III from Tampa is the #1 rated cornerback recruit in the nation. Despite being #5 in the nation he Gators are only #3 in the SEC.

2012 Recap
Florida beat more of the very best teams in the nation than any other team last year, and it wasn't even close. They beat five teams that finished in the AP top 25: #5 Texas A&M, #8 South Carolina, #10 Florida State, #14 LSU, and #23 Vanderbilt. They also beat 8-5 Bowling Green and 9-4 Louisiana-Lafayette. And they did pretty much all of it with defense, beating Texas A&M 20-17, LSU 17-6, Vanderbilt 31-17, Bowling Green 27-14, and LA-Lafayette 27-20. The win at Florida State might have been their best on offense, as they scored 37 on the road against one of the nation's best defenses; the South Carolina win (44-11) had several offensive scores set up by turnovers. The Gators losses were largely due to poor offense, as they fell to Georgia 17-9 and gave up a pick-6 right away to Louisville before falling 33-23.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Florida #23, and in the SEC being #23 doesn't get you a very good win-loss projection; we had the Gators 7-5. We foresaw a top 25 quality defense but didn't imagine they'd have the #2 scoring defense and that made all the difference.

2013 Outlook

Florida 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Toledo	89%	W
9/7	Sat	@	Miami (Florida)	38%	L
9/21	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	83%	W
9/28	Sat	@	*Kentucky	80%	W
10/5	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	95%	W
10/12	Sat	@	*LSU	42%	L
10/19	Sat	@	*Missouri	58%	W
11/2	Sat	N	*Georgia	28%	L
11/9	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	74%	W
11/16	Sat	@	*South Carolina	39%	L
11/23	Sat	vs.	Georgia Southern	92%	W
11/30	Sat	vs.	Florida State	49%	L
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 93%

This year Florida's schedule is murder again; they don't play Texas A&M but they still have Florida State and add Miami. They have LSU and South Carolina both on the road and the usual 'neutral' game vs. Georgia. We have them losing their five toughest games, hence our 7-5 forecast, but many of those are close so the cumulative projection is 8-4.

Three starters (LB Antonio Morrison, RG Jon Halapio, and RB Matt Jones) will miss the Toledo opener and probably the Miami game, too, meaning the Gators travel to face the Hurricanes shorthanded. Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas shouldn't be too big of a concern, but LSU in Baton Rouge is. They follow this by playing at Missouri which is no gimme, and then they battle the Bulldogs in Jacksonville; we take Georgia this year and we see it as Florida's toughest game. South Carolina in Columbia is yet another huge game, and after Georgia Southern (no slouch of an FCS team at 10-4) they host Florida State.

Last year Florida won four of their five tough games, beating Texas A&M, LSU, South Carolina, and FSU, with two of the four on the road. This year three of the tough games are on the road (Georgia is neutral both seasons). The Gators have a decent chance in every "loss" so another great season is a possibility. With this schedule, a 1-loss Florida team has a great shot at being in the national championship but, as they found out last year, winning your division is a necessity.

If Florida is the #6 SEC team they would go to the Chik-Fil-A Bowl, but the SEC situation is muddy and full of optional selections so we figure the Gator Bowl will take them. They'd face a Big Ten team, possibly Nebraska.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #13 South Carolina Gamecocks

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South Carolina Gamecocks  (SEC #5; East #2)

#13	2012 Results	AP #8 USA #7	Strength:#12  Success:#9  Overall:#9
		Record: 11-2	Bowl: Beat Michigan 33-28 (Outback)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #6 | USA #7 | Lindy's #9 | Athlon #5 | Steele #14
		Record: 9-3	Bowl: Cotton (Eligibility odds: 98%)

Marcus Lattimore was the face of the Gamecocks for three years, but now it's Jadeveon Clowney's team.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #44 (raw) #26 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #24 (adjusted)

The Gamecocks lose Marcus Lattimore but now they have two quarterbacks.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #57 (raw) #49 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #106
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #42 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #97

Connor Shaw (1,956 yards, 17 TDs, 7 int) played well last year but missed a lot of time, so Dylan Thompson (1,027 yards, 10 TDs, 2 int) filled in more than adequately. Both are going to be used this year in a tandem system. We'll see how that goes. Top receiver Bruce Ellington (600 yards) is back while #2 Ace Sanders (530) departs; in all four of the top six return. The offensive line has to solve its sieve-like tendencies that allowed 38 sacks last year; four starters are back so things should be at least a little better. In all production should improve but who knows how long the 2-QB system will last.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #91 (raw) #73 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #70 (adj.)

Marcus Lattimore (662 yards, 11 TDs) never fully realized his potential at South Carolina, getting injured two years in a row, with last year's being a horrific one on constant TV replay. He will be missed but at least they are used to his absence. Connor Shaw was 2nd with 435 yards, and top RB Kenny Miles (359) departs. That leaves sophomore Mike Davis (275) as the go-to runner. The offensive line has four starters back: Roland Patrick, A.J. Cann, Corey Robinson, and Brandon Shell. The ground game wasn't great last year and with a stronger O-line production should be up a bit.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #13    Pass Defense  per-game: #10   Per-attempt: #10
Defense 5 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #14 (raw) #9 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #1	'12 picks: #29
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #14 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #6	'13 picks: #50

The universe of the Gamecock defense centers around Jadeveon Clowney (13 sacks, plus 10.5 tackles for loss), a legitimate Heisman candidate and clear favorite for defensive player of the year. Two starters are gone from the South Carolina defensive line including Aldrick Fordham (5.5 sacks) but with backup Chaz Sutton (5 sacks) moving into the starting lineup, last year's #1 adjusted pass rush will still be potent. Oh, and partly due to the return of Clowney, of course. Unfortunately things aren't so rosey at linebacker where all three starters are gone including #1 tackler Shaq Wilson (86 tackles). They also lose D.J. Swearinger from the secondary but three starters return there. In all the defense loses their top four tacklers (the linebackers plus Swearinger)—but the return of the #5 tackler (Clowney) insures that the defense will remain one of the best in the nation.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Tyler Hull (39.4 average) returns but kicker Adam Yates (11 of 17 field goals) departs; his replacement will be sophomore Landon Ard or perhaps true freshman walk-on Elliot Fry.
• Return Game:  Bruce Ellington (22.6 average) will continue to handle kickoff returns but Ace Sanders (15.3 average on punts with 2 touchdown returns) is gone. Corner Victor Hampton will get a shot.
• Turnovers projection:  Fumbles should be kinder to the Gamecocks this year, but despite three starters back in the secondary we see the number of interceptions shrinking, offsetting the fumble gain.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #21          2012 Recruiting Rank: #18
Another solid class from Steve Spurrier, the Ole Head Ball Coach or whatever. But with the insanity that is SEC recruiting these days, that ranks only #9 in the conference. Talk about running full speed in order to stand still! The class lacks the super-blue-chip players that most of the teams in the SEC have one or more of, and is pretty low on consensus blue-chips for the conference. Still, it's a top 25 class, can't really complain about that, especially since Spurrier has the Gamecock program at its peak.

2012 Recap
South Carolina started the year with a shaky win at Vanderbilt (17-13) and a blowout of East Carolina (48-10); both those teams finished the regular season 8-4, so in retrospect it was a good start. They won three more before facing Georgia and pummelling the Bulldogs 35-7, and at that point visions of competing for SEC and national titles danced in their heads. But they couldn't do that to LSU (losing 23-21), and worse yet, Florida did it to them (44-11). The Gamecocks came home to face Tennessee, a narrow 38-35 win marred by Marcus Lattimore's injury. Luckily the team had easy games against a down Arkansas and Wofford to get their bearings in time to face in-state rival Clemson. In what was in many ways their best win of the season they beat the Tigers 27-17 on the road without Lattimore and without starting QB Connor Shaw. Against Michigan the team fell behind but rallied to win 33-28, a victory punctuated by Jadeveon Clowney's helmet-popping hit on Wolverine RB Vincent Smith.

Last year's prediction: We ranked the Gamecocks #16, which is pretty fair considering they finished #12 in Strength. With their SEC schedule, though, we projected an 8-4 finish, with tossup losses to Georgia and Clemson that turned out to be dominant wins instead.

2013 Outlook

South Carolina 2013 schedule & forecast
8/29	Thu	vs.	North Carolina	74%	W
9/7	Sat	@	*Georgia	23%	L
9/14	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	75%	W
9/28	Sat	@	UCF	76%	W
10/5	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	91%	W
10/12	Sat	@	*Arkansas	90%	W
10/19	Sat	@	*Tennessee	72%	W
10/26	Sat	@	*Missouri	60%	W
11/2	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	80%	W
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Florida	61%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	Coastal Carolina	99%	W
11/30	Sat	vs.	Clemson	60%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 98%

Our cumulative estimate for the Gamecocks is a decent but not great 9-3, but game-by-game it sure looks like South Carolina ought to be 11-1 this year. North Carolina looks like a win even if they will likely be missing a few important players. But Georgia looks like a revenge-laden beatdown by the Bulldogs. If they win there, the Gamecocks really have the chance for a great season.

Vandy and UCF will provide a test, but Kentucky and Arkansas shouldn't. Tennessee, Missouri, and especially Florida will be their hardest conference games besides Georgia. They close with Clemson and even at home that's as hard as any SEC team they face other than the Bulldogs.

If South Carolina is the #5 team in the SEC they should go to the Cotton Bowl and face the #3 Big Twelve team, possibly Oklahoma. 

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #14 Clemson Tigers

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Clemson Tigers  (ACC #2; Atlantic #2)

#14	2012 Results	AP #11 USA #9	Strength:#17  Success:#13  Overall:#15
		Record: 11-2	Bowl: Beat LSU 25-24 (Chick-fil-A)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #8 | USA #8 | Lindy's #7 | Athlon #6 | Steele #20
		Record: 9-3	Bowl: Chick-fil-A (Eligibility odds: 98%)

Clemson is definitely going to be good again, but if they hadn't made that last-second field goal to beat LSU would they be in everyone's pre-season top ten?

Offense 6 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #6 (raw) #6 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #8 (adjusted)

Tajh Boyd leads the Tiger offense again, but without DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Ellington.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #13 (raw) #8 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #88
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #12 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #74

Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd (3,986 yards, 36 TDs, 13 int) was overshadowed last year by Johnny Manziel but has renewed Heisman buzz going into his senior year. DeAndre Hopkins (1,405 yards, 18 TDs) wasn't supposed to be Clemson's superstar receiver last year—it was supposed to be Sammy Watkins (708 yards). Hopkins departs and Watkins is the only one of the top four receivers back as he tries to recapture his freshman form (1,219 yards). Three others are back who had 150+ yards. The offensive line should make progress in reducing last year's 31 sacks as four starters return. Watkins ought to have a great year, but now they have one superstar receiver instead of two so the passing game might slip just a bit.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #36 (raw) #29 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #30 (adj.)

Andre Ellington led with 1,081 yards (8 TDs) last year and he's gone, leaving QB Boyd (514 yards, 10 TDs) the leading returning rusher. Roderick McDowell had 450 (5 TDs) and should be an adequte replacement for Ellington. The offensive line will help see to that—starters Tyler Shatley, Brandon Thomas, David Beasley, and Gifford Timothy are all back.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #70    Pass Defense  per-game: #75   Per-attempt: #59
Defense 6 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #50 (raw) #52 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #27	'12 picks: #68
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #51 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #25	'13 picks: #57

Clemson's defensive line returns three starters and to replace Malliciah Goodman (7 sacks) they have Vic Beasley, who had 8 sacks out of 18 total tackles. At linebacker Jonathan "Tig" Willard (#1 tackler w/95, 7.5 tackles for loss) but #2 tackler Spencer Shuey returns. The secondary is hit the hardest as three starters are gone including Rashard Hall (4 int). We may see some shifting in opponents' play-calling as the rush defense gets better and pass defense swoons a bit, but overall we see about the same level of quality.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Chandler Catanzaro made 18 of 19 field goals last year, including the famous one that lifted them over LSU He's back but punter Spencer Benton (39.2 average) is gone; sophomore Bradley Pinion (39.4 average on 9 punts) will take over.
• Return Game:  Sammy Watkins averaged 19.8 yards on kickoffs this year, down from last year's 25.0 (boosted by a touchdown return). Adam Humphries had a 4.8 average on punt returns. Both are back.
• Turnovers projection:  Like everything else, the team's turnovers will probably be about the same next year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #14          2012 Recruiting Rank: #31
Dabo Swinney's 2013 class is a very good one, ranking 2nd in the ACC behind Florida State and ahead of Miami. Clemson just had their first back-to-back 10-win seasons since '88-'90.

2012 Recap 
The relevant points are: won their first three games; lost to Florida State; won their next seven games; lost to South Carolina. Beat LSU 25-24 in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. This last point was the first "big" game Clemson had won since last year's ACC championship, and that one was followed by the 70-35 loss to West Virginia. Because the 2012 team ended with momentum rather than disappointment, that feeling has carried over when people contemplate the Tigers' future. Thus Clemson is overrated already in the pre-season, and it's all because of a field goal. If they had missed it, the Tigers would have fallen to around 16-18 and probably started out ranked #20. Instead they rose to #9 and #11 and start out #8 in both polls.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Clemson #26 last year—we underrated them—and projected a 9-3 regular season. But the one loss we picked game-by-game was Florida State. In that sense we overrated them, and between the two projections were pretty close to reality.

2013 Outlook

Clemson 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Georgia	39%	L
9/7	Sat	vs.	South Carolina St.	100%	W
9/19	Thu	@	*N.C. State	86%	W
9/28	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	97%	W
10/5	Sat	@	*Syracuse	80%	W
10/12	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	88%	W
10/19	Sat	vs.	*Florida State	50%	W
10/26	Sat	@	*Maryland	85%	W
11/2	Sat	@	*Virginia	85%	W
11/14	Thu	vs.	*Georgia Tech	76%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	The Citadel	99%	W
11/30	Sat	@	South Carolina	40%	L
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 98%

We've been saying Clemson is overrated if they're in the top ten—their offense, defense, rushing, and passing seem nearly identical to last year's levels—but they have a chance of being a national title contender if the ball bounces their way in a few key games. And all three are within their reach.

The first key game comes right away when the Tigers face Georgia. Playing at home gives them a real chance that playing on the road wouldn't. Win or lose they should be able to clean up their next five opponents, since they have another big game to look forward to as they host Florida State. In this case, the home venue really could be the difference in what is a tossup game. Five more wins should follow before their last hurdle, South Carolina. We'd favor them at home in this one but on the road we go with the Gamecocks, but it's anyone's ball game really.

Win all three of those and they're a national title contender; they might even be able to take a loss to Georgia, since it comes so early. Losing to FSU might keep them out of the ACC title game, and losing to South Carolina late would derail their chances.

Using the cumulative estimates and our rankings, we don't put Clemson in the ACC title game, and as the #2 ACC team they'd head back to the Chick-fil-A Bowl to face the #6 SEC team—which might be LSU again—unless they rank high enough to be an at-large selection for a BCS bowl, another possibility. Or, if we use the game-by-game projections as gospel and the FSU game tilts their way, they'd be in the ACC title game, win that, and be in the Orange Bowl...but not in the running for a national title with 2 losses to SEC teams.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #15 Michigan Wolverines

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Michigan Wolverines  (Big Ten #2; Legends #1)

#15	2012 Results	AP #24 USA #26	Strength:#22  Success:#32  Overall:#24
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Lost to South Carolina 33-28 (Outback)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #17 | USA #17 | Lindy's #16 | Athlon #14 | Steele #21
		Record: 9-3	Bowl: Orange (Eligibility odds: 99%)

Michigan will look like a very different team as the transition from a Rich Rodriguez offense to a Brady Hoke offense is completed.

Offense 5 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #60 (raw) #30 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #41 (adjusted)

The offense loses quite a few top players, chief among them Denard Robinson.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #98 (raw) #79 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #34
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #70 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #49

The Denard Robinson era is over; as a passing quarterback he gets mixed reviews. He led last year with 1,319 yards, and had 9 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. When he got injured and was unable to throw effectively, the Devin Gardner era begin; Gardner threw for 1,219 yards, 11 TDs, and 5 interceptions. In between the two was the best-forgotten Russell Bellomy era (4 of 21, 0 TDs, 4 int). Gardner will have #1 receiver Jeremy Gallon (829 yards) back but not #2 Roy Roundtree (580 yards). Three others had 200+ receiving yards and all are back. Protection might be a problem, however, as only two starters return to the offensive line and Gardner was sacked 11 times vs. just 4 for Robinson; if Gardner is hurt the dropoff will be great. Assuming he stays healthy Gardner should overcome all of this and raise production but it might not be a whole lot more than the two combined for last year; he should, however, dramatically lower the amount of interceptions (18 last year) thrown by the QB stable.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #41 (raw) #27 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #85 (adj.)

Denard Robinson had shortcomings as a passer but none as a runner. Last year he had 1,266 yards and 7 touchdowns, and replacing that yardage won't be easy. Devin Gardner (101 yards, 7 TDs) can run, too, but not like Robinson (4.1 average vs. 7.6 average, before sack yardage removed). Fitzgerald Toussaint (514, 5 TDs) led the running backs and he returns as does Thomas Rawls (242), but there's a chance that true freshman Derrick Green could be the starter when all is said and done. The offensive line loses three starters including Patrick Omameh. All-American Taylor Lewan is back with Michael Schofield. but the line could be weaker, and without Robinson the Michigan running game is going through a process of redefining itself, and the Wolverines will be throwing the ball more this year.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #21    Pass Defense  per-game: #35   Per-attempt: #52
Defense 5.5 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #21 (raw) #26 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #85	'12 picks: #105
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #18 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #71	'13 picks: #108

The state of the Michigan defense depends a lot on linebacker Jake Ryan (#1 w/88 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss). Ryan is rehabbing a torn ACL and will miss about 6 games, give or take. The corps lose #2 tackler Kenny Demers but Desmond Morgan is back and Brennen Beyer moves in from the D-line; 2010 starter Cam Gordon is back in the starting lineup, too. The defensive line loses three starters (counting Beyer) but Quinton Washington returns. The secondary loses two starters but Thomas Gordon is back and Blake Countess returns from injury. The Michigan defense ranked #6 in raw passing yards allowed per game, but they faced very weak passing teams; when corrected they ranked 35th, and #52 on a per-play corrected basis. Our upgraded ranking depends on Ryan's healthy return, and right now indications are good.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Brendan Gibbons (16 of 18 FG) is back and so is punter Will Hagerup (45.0 average last year). Hagerup, however, is not playing this season after being suspended for violating team rules. Backup Matt Wile (35.9 average on 12 punts) takes over and his low average is due to his use as pooch punter (9 of 12 downed inside the 20).
• Return Game:  Dennis Norfleet averaged 23.6 yards per kickoff return and Jeremy Gallon 5.5 per punt return; both are back.
• Turnovers projection:  Michigan's offense was hurt due to interceptions by Robinson (9) and Bellomy (4). Gardner threw just 5. It might be mean to say that Bellomy's ACL tear was a boon to the team, but there's no way he throws any picks this year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #4          2012 Recruiting Rank: #5
Brady's Hoke's 2013 class is just as good as his 2012 class, if not better. Between these two classes Michigan has added more good players than almost any team in the country. The Wolverines signed the nation's best running back, Derrick Green, and he might start this year. We rank the class #1 in the Big Ten, just ahead of Ohio State's group. Now, with Denard Robinson gone, Hoke will complete the transformation of the offense he started when he took over from Rich Rodriguez.

2012 Recap
Within their first four games, Michigan played and lost to the two teams who ended up in the national championship game. In their last game they took on the nation's only other undefeated team. In other words, the final AP #1, #3, and #4 teams. They didn't play well at all against Alabama in Texas, losing 41-14, and lost to Notre Dame on the road by just a touchdown, 13-6, but at 2-2 the season was already a disappointment. The Wolverines blitzed Purdue 44-13 and beat Illinois 45-0, but barely beat Michigan State and lost badly at Nebraska, scoring just 9 points as an injured Robinson was spelled by Bellomy (3 of 16, 3 interceptions). The offense was erratic all season as they tried to figure out what to do with Denard Robinson; his passing was inconsistent at best, so his running was emphasized again and when he was injured, Gardner began playing quarterback. They fought tough against Ohio State but lost 26-21, and kept up with South Carolina but fell 33-28.

Last year's prediction: We ranked the Wolverines #7, quite a bit higher than they deserved, it turns out. Injuries clearly played a role in that but the Alabama game showed that they weren't #7 even when healthy (then again, Notre Dame lost by a nearly identical score). We projected them 10-2 and playing in the Rose Bowl

2013 Outlook

Michigan 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Central Michigan	99%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	58%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Akron	98%	W
9/21	Sat	@	Connecticut	86%	W
10/5	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	87%	W
10/12	Sat	@	*Penn State	71%	W
10/19	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	83%	W
11/2	Sat	@	*Michigan State	63%	W
11/9	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	81%	W
11/16	Sat	@	*Northwestern	51%	W
11/23	Sat	@	*Iowa	83%	W
11/30	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	44%	L
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3  Odds of 12-0: 2%

Last year's game-by-game forecast showed an opening loss to Alabama and 11 straight wins. This year it's turned around, with 11 straight wins and a loss to Ohio State. But the cumulative projection is only for a 9-3 season, so some of these closer games are likely to be losses.

Central Michigan should be a win, and Akron, but in between they face Notre Dame. That's a tough one but in Ann Arbor we have them favored. UConn and Minnesota are tests they should pass, as are Penn State and Indiana. Michigan State on the road should be harder than Nebraska at home, and Northwestern on the road might be the toughest game of the year up to that point; we have it basically a tossup. The final test is the hardest, obviously, as Ohio State comes to visit. That's the only loss we assign outright. We give them a pretty decent shot at winning that one, and about a 3% chance of going 12-0, but they'd have to "prove" it by beating the Buckeyes again on a neutral field. But even if they lose they might face the Buckeyes again in the Big Ten title game.

What this could mean is that after losing to Ohio State at home, the teams would play again in Indianapolis and we assume the Buckeyes win there, too. Here's where it gets complicated. There are so many SEC and Pac-12 teams in our top 14 that the BCS would need to go outside—to the top 18—for more eligible teams (since the SEC and Pac-12 can only have 2 teams in the BCS). Michigan would be the primary choice among those teams, and as the Orange Bowl fills its at-large bids first, we think they would choose the Wolverines to play the ACC champ, Florida State.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #18 LSU Tigers

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

LSU Tigers  (SEC #7; West #4)

#18	2012 Results	AP #14 USA #12	Strength:#14  Success:#10  Overall:#10
		Record: 10-3	Bowl: Lost to Clemson 25-24 (Chick-fil-A)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #12 | USA #13 | Lindy's #8 | Athlon #12 | Steele #13
		Record: 7-5	Bowl: Chick-fil-A (Eligibility odds: 93%)

LSU loses about half their squad to the NFL but should still field a top 25 team.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #58 (raw) #31 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #29 (adjusted)

This year, Zach Mettenberger should come closer to living up to last year's expectations.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #95 (raw) #89 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #73
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #49 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #89

We warned people not to expect great things from Zach Mettenberger (2,609 yards, 12 TDs, 7 int) last year, and indeed his first season starting was a disappointment to most. But this year should be a lot better since he has experience and perhaps more importantly, his four top receivers from last season are back with Odell Beckham (713 yards) and Jarvis Landry (573) leading the way. Sacks (32) were a problem last year and that issue isn't settle by a longshot as the O-line has some problems, but Penn State transfer Rob Bolden (1,360 passing yards in 2011) adds experience to the backup QB stable in case of a mishap. Mettenberger should have a much better year as a senior.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #52 (raw) #32 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #43 (adj.)

Over the years LSU assembled a great collection of running backs and used all of them in committee style in 2012. Jeremy Hill (755 yards, 12 TDs) led last year and Kenny Hilliard (464, 6) was #2; both are back. They lose Michael Ford (392) and Spencer Ware (367) but Alfred Blue (270) returns. Hill got into some trouble this spring but avoided jail time and the team voted to take him back, but that might put him behind Blue and Hilliard in the committee rotation. The offensive line will be somewhat weaker than last year's model. La'el Collins is back with Vadal Alexander, while Trai Turner started half-time. Josh Williford started only half-time last year due to a concussion, and he suffered another one in fall camp putting him out for this year, too (and maybe for his career). The ground game may lose a step or two while remaining relatively strong.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #6    Pass Defense  per-game: #28   Per-attempt: #4
Defense 3 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #12 (raw) #6 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #30	'12 picks: #16
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #13 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #58	'13 picks: #29

For years LSU has been a team led by its defense, and last year was no exception. This year's group faces the ramifications of its own success as several players left early for the pros. Pretty much the entire defensive line was drafted by the NFL including first-round draft choice Barkevious Mingo (4.5 sacks) and 2nd-rounder Sam Montgomery (8 sacks). At linebacker #1 tackler Kevin Minter (130 tackles, 11 tackles for loss) went pro but #2 tackler Lamin Barrow (7.5 tackles for loss) returns. The secondary actually returns two starters including Craig Loston but Tharold Simon (9 pass breakups, 4 int) is gone. Sacks and interceptions will probably both drop and the defense will be top ten no more across the board. But given LSU's talent level the reserves will fill the gaps well and it will be well inside the top 25.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker Drew Alleman (21 of 29 FG) and punter Brad Wing (44.8 average) are gone; junior James Hairston and sophomore Jamie Keehn (43.7 ave on 12 punts) will take over.
• Return Game:  Odell Beckman returned two punts for touchdowns last year and averaged 9.1 yards; Michael Ford departs after averaging 27.5 per kickoff return, and freshman d-back Jeryl Brazil may get a shot there.
• Turnovers projection:  We see fewer picks on defense (18 last year) .

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #8          2012 Recruiting Rank: #15
The NFL can take 'em away, but Les Miles keeps bringing them in. This year's recruiting class ranks in the top ten in the nation but barely makes the top 5 in the SEC.

2012 Recap
LSU's offense looked amazing in the Tigers' first three games, racking up 41, 41, and 63 points in wins over North Texas, Washington, and Idaho, but against Auburn—hardly a great defense—they managed just 12 points. Luckily their defense rose to the occasion as it did many times during the year. They lost to Florida 14-6, but beat South Carolina 23-21 and Texas A&M 24-19, and almost beat Alabama, falling 21-17. They won three straight after that to finish 10-2, then couldn't hold the lead against Clemson and lost on a last-second field goal. The four-game stretch from Florida to Alabama was probably the toughest any team faced all year, and they emerged with two wins by a total of 7 points, and 2 losses by a total of 12.

Last year's prediction: We overrated the Tigers' strength, ranking them #4, but our 10-2 projection came true. Game-by-game, however, we didn't pick any losses, with even Alabama a narrow victory (since they were at home).

2013 Outlook

LSU 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	@	TCU	49%	L
9/7	Sat	vs.	UAB	98%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Kent State	95%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	88%	W
9/28	Sat	@	*Georgia	20%	L
10/5	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	63%	W
10/12	Sat	vs.	*Florida	58%	W
10/19	Sat	@	*Mississippi	34%	L
10/26	Sat	vs.	Furman	100%	W
11/9	Sat	@	*Alabama	8%	L
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Texas A&M	28%	L
11/30	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	95%	W
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 93%

If LSU wanted to maximize their chances to upset the SEC's top team—Alabama and Texas A&M—they couldn't have set up a better schedule. The Tigers not only have a week off before Alabama, but they play Furman in the previous game, essentially giving the team three weeks to recover and practice for the Tide. Then they have a week off immediately after Alabama and before the Aggies. In all, they have 9 games, a week off, 1 game, another week off, and two more games.

TCU in Arlington is a damn tough opener, and after recent personnel losses by both teams our estimate tips on whether Jeremy Hill plays or not; this season the "half game suspension" is all the rage so that wouldn't surprise us here, but neither would Miles making Hill serve the suspension vs. UAB. The Tigers have two breathers after TCU (three if you could Auburn). Georgia looks like their first definite loss, and while Mississippi State and Florida will be no picnic we pick those for the Tigers. Mississippi on the road is another matter. Then comes the Furman-bye week-Alabama-bye week-Texas A&M month before closing out at Arkansas.

The cumulative estimate leans to 7-5 but 8-4 sounds reasonable to us. The trouble is that the losses (apart from TCU) look more certain than wins over Florida, and Mississippi State. In any case the Tigers might be headed for a rematch with Clemson in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #17 Miami Hurricanes

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Miami Hurricanes  (ACC #3; Coastal #1)

#17	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#54  Success:#56  Overall:#58
		Record: 7-5	Bowl: None (opted out of post-season)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #29 | USA #27 | Lindy's #24 | Athlon #29 | Steele #26
		Record: 10-2	Bowl: Russell Athletic (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Back in the day this would have been a disappointing pre-season ranking for the Hurricanes, but a decade of middling success has changed things.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #49 (raw) #32 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #14 (adjusted)

If Stephen Morris and Duke Johnson play to their potential the offense will be potent.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #25 (raw) #17 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #27
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #3 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #12

Stephen Morris (3,345 yards, 21 TDs, 7 int) had a great year and really came on strong at the end, leaving many wondering what 2013 held in store. Most likely, a passing attack that ranks near the very best in the nation. The three top receivers are back—Phillip Dorsett (842 yards), Rashawn Scott (512), and Clive Watford (453)—and three other returnees topped 200 yards. The 'Canes have an experienced backup QB in Ryan Williams (137 yards last year; 2,075 yards, 13 TDs, 10 int at Memphis in 2010) and an offensive line that gave up a reasonable 18 sacks last year and returns all five starters. All signs point to a potentially very strong passing game.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #83 (raw) #72 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #57 (adj.)

Duke Johnson had 947 yards and 10 touchdowns as a freshman, establishing himself as the back of the future at The U. Mike James had 621 yards in his senior year. The offensive line should make Johnson's life even easier this year as all five starters are back. Brandon Linder, Shane McDermott, and Malcolm Bunche started every game while John Feliciano started the majority in relief of the injured Ereck Flowers. Finally, there's Seantrel Henderson, the former #1 recruit who's been injury-plagued for several seasons; he's healthy now and this should be one of the best offensive lines around. Look for a fantasic year from Johnson and better team production from the 'Canes.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #112    Pass Defense  per-game: #108   Per-attempt: #75
Defense 6 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #87 (raw) #73 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #116	'12 picks: #74
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #49 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #92	'13 picks: #41

Miami's defense last year certainly wasn't the kind that made "The U" famous. With a porous rushing defense and passing D that wasn't much better, and no ability to pressure the quarterback, it was somewhat of an embarrassment. Things look better this season, at least on paper. The rush defense should improve as the defensive line returns #1 tackler Shayon Greene (67 tackles) and sacks leader Anthony Chickillo, plus grad transfer David Gilbert who started at Wisconsin last year. Eddie Johnson (6.5 tackles for loss) is gone at linebakers but #2 tackler Denzel Perryman returns. The secondary loses Brandon McGee but several part-time starters return. This won't be a great defense by any means but the really bad numbers will be less awful, and the mediocre numbers should become quite respectable.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker Jake Wieclaw (19 of 25 field goals last year) and punter Dalton Bolts (40.5 average) are gone. Cincinnati transfer Pat O'Donnell (41.8 average in 2012) should take over as punter and soph Matt Goudis will placekick.
• Return Game:  Duke Johnson averaged 33 yards per kickoff return, amped by 2 touchdown returns. Phillip Dorsett gained 5.7 yards per punt return; both are back.
• Turnovers projection:  Morris can't improve too much on his 7 interceptions, but Miami should get more of them on defense (11 last year) and have better luck on fumble recoveries.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #18          2012 Recruiting Rank: #4
Al Golden didn't have a top-five recruiting class this year but he's pretty much established that Miami recruiting is going to be in the top 25 perennially. He's recruited this well in the face of meager success and looming sanctions from the NCAA, as Miami has self-imposed a post-season ban two years in a row, opting out of the ACC title game last December. This year's class ranks near the top of the conference.

2012 Recap 
Miami beat Boston College in the opener 41-32 but in game two they were crushed by Kansas State 52-13. Three more wins—including a rollercoaster ride overtime win at Georgia Tech—were followed by another downer, the 41-3 loss to Notre Dame. After North Carolina and Florida State (a more respectable 33-20) the Canes got a win over Virginia Tech, 30-12. They lost to Virginia 41-40 as the defense still couldn't pull its weight, but closed with wins over South Florida and Duke to go 7-5. Because North Carolina was on probation the Hurricanes could have gone to the ACC title game and potentially the Orange Bowl, but Miami self-imposed another post-season ban due to the Nevin Shapiro scandal.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Miami #56 and they ended up #54 in our Strength power rating. We projected just a 5-7 record however.

2013 Outlook

Miami 2013 schedule & forecast
8/30	Fri	vs.	Florida Atlantic	98%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	Florida	62%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Savannah State	100%	W
9/28	Sat	@	South Florida	91%	W
10/5	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	75%	W
10/17	Thu	@	*North Carolina	60%	W
10/26	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	97%	W
11/2	Sat	@	*Florida State	32%	L
11/9	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	86%	W
11/16	Sat	@	*Duke	87%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	93%	W
11/29	Fri	@	*Pittsburgh	88%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 10-2  Odds of 12-0: 5%

This year we're projecting a very good year for Miami, with only one clear loss on their slate and a cumulative estimate of 10 wins. We even give them a 4% chance of running the table.

There's only one challege in the first four games, and that's Florida. They get the Gators at home so they have a real shot at beating them. Florida Atlantic and especially Savannah State (84-0 losers to Oklahoma State last year) should be afterthoughts, and South Florida is rebuilding. Georgia Tech is always a test, and North Carolina in Chapel Hill will be even bigger. Wake Forest at home should be a solid win.

Then it's time for the year's other big test, Florida State on the road, and that's probably too much to handle. The last four games should be relatively easy compared to previous years.

What the Hurricanes need is consistency. If they play hot and cold on offense and defense then they will be upset by teams they should be beating. This year's schedule is easier than last year's (Florida, but no Kansas State or Notre Dame) and Miami is going to be the favorite most weeks; the conference schedule could be full of traps if they aren't focused. Miami should win the Coastal division which would set up a rematch with FSU for the ACC title and an Orange Bowl berth, but we rank FSU #1 in the ACC. If the 'Canes do finish the #3 team in the conference they'll go to the Russell Athletic Bowl and face the American Athletic Conference #2 team, which should be Cincinnati.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #19 Stanford Cardinal

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Stanford Cardinal  (Pac-12 #5; North #4)

#19	2012 Results	AP #7 USA #6	Strength:#13  Success:#7  Overall:#8
		Record: 12-2	Bowl: Beat Wisconsin 20-14 (Rose)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #4 | USA #4 | Lindy's #3 | Athlon #7 | Steele #8
		Record: 7-5	Bowl: Sun (Eligibility odds: 91%)

Is it possible that Stanford is actually overrated? If so, then the program has truly arrived.

Offense 5 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #71 (raw) #45 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #70 (adjusted)

The Stanford O loses Stepfan Taylor and all of its top receivers.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #96 (raw) #93 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #19
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #115 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #14

Josh Nunes (1,643 yards, 10 TDs, 7 int) began the year as the starter but he was replaced and by the following spring had retired from football due to an injury. Kevin Hogan (1,096 yards, 9 TDs, 3 int) took over mid-season and led the team to impressive wins, and completed 72% to Nunes' 53%. Hogan is the clear starter now but the team's top five receivers from last year are gone including tight end Zach Ertz who led with 898 yards and 6 TDs. Ty Montgomery (213 yards) is the leading returnee. The offensive line's solid protection (20 sacks) will continue to be a plus, but the team needs targets and without them the going may get tough.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #49 (raw) #42 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #53 (adj.)

The main takeaway in the ground game is that Stepfan Taylor (1,530 yards, 13 TDs) is gone. That fact outweights other considerations, such as: 1) three other rushers return, each of whom had over 150 yards; 2) the #2 rusher, QB Kevin Hogan (263) will be seeing a lot more reps as full-time starter; 3) Tyler Gaffney had 449 yards in 2011 and returns to the team after playing baseball last year; 4) the offensive line returns four starters; and 5) they have Barry Friggin' Sanders' son (Barry Sanders Jr.) on the squad!  Despite item #5, it's Anthony Wilkerson (224 yards) who is expected to start, or perhaps Gaffney. The o-line returns starters Khalil Wilkes, Kevin Danser, David Yankey, and Cameron Fleming, so whoever runs behind it should do well, but Taylor's absence is still the key fact.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #3    Pass Defense  per-game: #31   Per-attempt: #6
Defense 8 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #11 (raw) #4 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #3	'12 picks: #37
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #1 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #2	'13 picks: #7

Stanford's defense last year was excellent across the board. They went back and forth all year with Notre Dame and Alabama as the top rushing defense, settling for 3rd place in the end. Teams couldn't run on the Cardinal so they passed more often, but per-play they were top ten there, too. Their pass rush was top five and the defense finished #4 in adjusted scoring allowed. The defensive line returns Ben Gardner (7.5 sacks) and Henry Anderson (5.5 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss), and with Trent Murphy (10 sacks, 8 tackles for loss) among three starting linebackers that return, the fearsome Stanford pass rush may get even better. They do lose LB Chase Thomas (7.5 sacks) but #1 tackler Shane Skov (81 tackles) returns. Three starters are back in the secondary, too, including Jordan Richards (12 pass breakups) and Ed Reynolds (6 interceptions); we think they could have considerably more than last year's 15 picks, too. Add it all up and Stanford actually projects as our #1 defense, even ahead of Alabama. The Tide have had the #1 adjusted scoring defense for four straight years so that would be quite an accomplishment.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Jordan Williamson (17 of 27 field goals last season) is back while punter Daniel Zychlinski (43.1 average) departs. Ben Rhyne (41.1 average on 9 punts last year) will take over.
• Return Game:  Ty Montgomery averaged 26.6 yards per kickoff return and had a touchdown return in 2011. He's back while Drew Terrell (12.1 average, 1 TD on punts) is gone; Kodi Whitfield may get the call there.
• Turnovers projection:  The defense should have more picks this year, though that might be offset by less luck on fumble recoveries.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #77          2012 Recruiting Rank: #7
After last year's top ten class Stanford ranks dead last in the Pac-12 in 2013. It's partly due to numbers; last year's class was simply larger than this year's 12-man group. But last year's group had a higher percentage of blue-chip recruits than this year, too. While Stanford has raised their profile considerably over the last several years, this class makes for a stark comparison to the "old guard" if you can call USC that. The Trojans only recruited 12 players, too, but we rank their class #3 in the Pac-12 and in the top 20 nationally.

2012 Recap
Stanford's first game—a 20-17 win over San Jose State—was a disappointment at the time, but the Spartans turned out to be an 11-2 team. Then the Cardinal scored 50 on Duke, a future bowl team. By the time they beat pre-season #1 USC people took them seriously. But they lost to Washington 17-13 the next week, struggled to a 54-48 overtime win over Arizona, and lost to Notre Dame 20-13 (OT), their season at 4-2 was back to being a bit disappointing. Three wins followed, but starting with the 48-0 Colorado shutout the team was clicking: they beat ranked Oregon State 27-23, then upset Oregon 17-14 (OT) on the road, and beat UCLA twice to win the Pac-12 title. The first win over the Bruins (35-17) was much better than the 2nd one (27-24), but that's understandable. Though all their best wins came with Kevin Hogan at QB, it was really the defense that made the difference down the stretch; from the Colorado shutout to allowing just 14 points from Oregon, the defense was the key while the offense continued to do "just enough."

Last year's prediction: We ranked Stanford #11 last year, a pretty fair prediction. We projected a 9-3 record and they went 10-2, beating USC and Oregon but losing to Washington. We did get the Notre Dame loss and everything else correct.

2013 Outlook

Stanford 2013 schedule & forecast
9/7	Sat	vs.	San Jose State	80%	W
9/14	Sat	@	Army	95%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	45%	L
9/28	Sat	@	*Washington State	75%	W
10/5	Sat	vs.	*Washington	53%	W
10/12	Sat	@	*Utah	78%	W
10/19	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	63%	W
10/26	Sat	@	*Oregon State	32%	L
11/7	Thu	vs.	*Oregon	25%	L
11/16	Sat	@	*USC	43%	L
11/23	Sat	vs.	*California	95%	W
11/30	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	62%	W
Straight up: 8-4  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 91%

Stanford won't underestimate San Jose State again, and Army shouldn't give the Cardinal any trouble, but Arizona State will be tough to beat this year even at home. Stanford should beat Washington State pretty easily on the road but Washington is also going to be very tough to beat but we give that one to the Cardinal, barely. Utah should fall and Stanford ought to beat UCLA for the third time in less than a year in October. A 6-1 start is expected.

Next up is a stretch of three very tough games: at Oregon State, Oregon at home, and at USC. How they do on this stretch will determine how much of a success the season is. The Cal game is a win unless Stanford looks ahead to Notre Dame, and they should get their revenge on the Irish.

That adds up to 8-4, while the cumulative estimate points barely to a 7-5 expectation. That's what happens when you have a really tough schedule, even if you're a good team. If Stanford ends up #4 in the Pac-12 they'll go to the Sun Bowl and face the #4 ACC team, which might be Georgia Tech or North Carolina.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #20 USC Trojans

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

USC Trojans  (Pac-12 #6; South #2)

#20	2012 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#20  Success:#49  Overall:#22
		Record: 7-6	Bowl: Lost to Georgia Tech 21-7 (Sun)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #24 | USA #24 | Lindy's #25 | Athlon #26 | Steele #7
		Record: 9-4	Bowl: Las Vegas (Eligibility odds: 96%)

USC certainly wasn't the best team in the country last year but they weren't as bad as their record would lead one to believe; they lost close games and fell apart as a team near the end. This season they should be just as good but have better results.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #40 (raw) #24 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #31 (adjusted)

Despite the loss of Matt Barkley the offense shouldn't slip much.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #32 (raw) #25 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #11
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #32 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #10

Poor Matt Barkley (3,273 yards, 36 TDs, 15 int). His plight reflected USC's dismal season, as he could have left early and been a top pick in the draft; instead, he came back to a disastrous year in which he was injured (literally adding injury to insult). The competition for the starting spot is still going on late into August and features backup sophomores Max Wittek (388 yards, 3 TDs, 5 int) and Cody Kessler (2 of 2 for 9 yards last year). Wittek completed just 52% in two starts when Barkley was out. The Lee/Woods receiver tandem is no more as Robert Woods (846 yards, 11 TDs) is gone, but Marqise Lee (1,721 yards, 14 TDs) had become more important anyway. Five others had 100+ yards and four are back, though a lot of younger WRs were injured over the summer. As long as Lee is healthy the passing game should be sound, and with a solid line (17 sacks last year) to protect him the new starter should do well; he just won't be Heisman caliber as fans are used to.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #74 (raw) #64 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #65 (adj.)

Silas Redd (905 yards, 9 TDs) jumped off what he thought was a sinking ship at Penn State (little did he know) and led the Trojans in rushing. Curtis McNeal was #2 with 701 yards. McNeal is gone but with a stronger offensive line they should roughly make up for his absence. Seniors John Martinez and Kevin Graf return to the O-line with junior Marcus Martin, while Aundrey Walker and Max Tuerk started roughly half-time each.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #29    Pass Defense  per-game: #58   Per-attempt: #36
Defense 7 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #43 (raw) #23 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #5	'12 picks: #6
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #16 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #3	'13 picks: #5

USC's defense was much-maligned last year but it was really a top 25 outfit across the board. Again, not national-title caliber but very sound, and agressive in making big plays. The stat everyone points to is rushing defense where they ranked #71 in raw figures, but they played a slew of great rushing teams including Oregon and Georgia Tech; when adjusted for schedule it was 29th in the country. But because they face strong running opponents in the Pac-12 they've moved to a 5-man line (5-2-4) and we'd assume the rushing defense will improve, and even the fierce pass rush (45 sacks) will get better. They lose Wes Horton (5.5 sacks) but George Uko (5 sacks) and Leonard Williams (8 sacks) are back and Morgan Breslin (13 sacks) joins the d-line as a LB/DE. The other LB/DE is Devon Kennard, a starter who returns from medical redshirt last year. Both linebackers are returning starters with Hayes Pullard the #2 tackler on the team last year (107). The secondary loses three starters including T.J. McDonald (#1 tackler with 112) but they get Dion Bailey (4 int) from the linebacker corps. In terms of the entire defense, we expect it to be somewhat better, though injuries can wreak havoc with USC more than most teams due to current scholarship limitations.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Andre Heidari (10 of 16 FG) is back but punter Kyle Negrete (42.7 average) is gone; sophomore Kris Albarado is the replacement.
• Return Game:  Marqise Lee averaged 28.5 yards per kickoff return with one touchdown, while fellow WR Robert Woods took the most punts but with less luck (3.6 per return). CB Anthony Brown may take over as Woods departs.
• Turnovers projection:  We don't expect the defense to match last year's 19 interceptions; their ranking remains high since expectations for most of the teams at the top of that list get downgraded.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #19          2012 Recruiting Rank: #13
Due to scholarship limitations and an off-year, Lane Kiffin's 4th class at USC is only about the 3rd-best in the Pac-12. Which is still remarkable for such a small class. Out of 12 commits, the Trojans landed four of the very best recruits available at any position: d-back Su'a Cravens from Murietta, CA; quarterback Max Browne from Washington state; defensive lineman Kenn Bigelow from Maryland; and running back Ty Isaac from Illinois. The remaining 8 are all consensus blue-chip players, too. They didn't get quantity but they got the best quality per-recruit of any team in the nation, easily.

2012 Recap
The season began, as usual, with lofty expectations and ended with an in-team scuffle after their bowl game loss. USC's first seven games were about as consistent of performances as you could ever expect from a team. Even the Stanford loss, as shocking as it was at the time, was to an 12-2 team and the Pac-12 champion. But after starting out 6-1 they dropped a notch and it was enough to send their season into a tailspin. The Arizona loss is the game that coach Lane Kiffin credits with ruining the team's season, and he was probably right. USC led by 15 and let the game slip away, and with it their hopes of a national title. They did about as well as they could have against Oregon, losing 52-51, then trounced Arizona State 38-17. UCLA beat them 38-28 and then without Barkley they fell to Notre Dame 22-13. Relegated to the Sun Bowl, a prospect the team openly mocked on social media, the Trojans were beat 21-7 by Georgia Tech and the infighting started. In retrospect what you had were a lot of close losses to good teams, which is only a devastating thing if you were expected to be the best team in the nation.

Last year's prediction: After Silas Redd transferred from Penn State, USC moved into the #1 spot in our pre-season rankings. The AP and Athlon concurred, while Lindy's had them #2 and Phil Steele and the coaches put them #3. Groupthink? To some extent, but if you look at how well they did in 2011 and how many players they had back, it's hard not to think the top 3 was where they belonged.

2013 Outlook

USC 2013 schedule & forecast
8/29	Thu	@	Hawaii	96%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	86%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Boston College	86%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Utah State	76%	W
9/28	Sat	@	*Arizona State	27%	L
10/10	Thu	vs.	*Arizona	70%	W
10/19	Sat	@	Notre Dame	43%	L
10/26	Sat	vs.	*Utah	88%	W
11/1	Fri	@	*Oregon State	30%	L
11/9	Sat	@	*California	87%	W
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	57%	W
11/23	Sat	@	*Colorado	92%	W
11/30	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	61%	W
Straight up: 10-3  Cume: 9-4  Bowl eligible: 96%

Starting in Hawaii and ending up at home against Utah State, the Trojans' first four games get progressively harder but should all be wins. They travel to Arizona State and the Sun Devils will probably be a better team this year. USC will want revenge on Arizona and should get it, but another tough road game follows vs. Notre Dame and we see the Trojans 5-2 at the rough mid-point of their 13-game schedule.

Another home win (Utah) precedes another probable road loss as Oregon State look strong to us this season. Cal does not, and USC gets Stanford at home and could win that game for the first time since 2008. Colorado should be a breather before the UCLA game, another close win perhaps. In all that's 10-3 game-by-game, but giving USC a couple of close ones at the end. The cumulative projection says 9-4 is more likely with the possibility of upsets taken into account.

If they end up the #6 Pac-12 team the Trojans (assuming two Pac-12 teams make the BCS) would go to the Las Vegas Bowl to face the top Mountain West team, which could be Utah State. If so things could be shuffled on the Pac-12 side to avoid the rematch, or it could be another MWC team (Boise State would be an intriguing game). But either way it might be another lesser bowl game for USC. With lower expectations going in, it won't seem so horrible this time if it turns out that way.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #21 Oklahoma Sooners

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

Oklahoma Sooners  (Big Twelve #3)

#21	2012 Results	AP #15 USA #15	Strength:#8  Success:#15  Overall:#11
		Record: 10-3	Bowl: Lost to Texas A&M 41-13 (Cotton)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #16 | USA #16 | Lindy's #15 | Athlon #17 | Steele #15
		Record: 8-4	Bowl: Cotton (Eligibility odds: 94%)

You know it's a down year for Sooner football when everyone picks them outside the top ten.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #17 (raw) #8 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #16 (adjusted)

The Landry Jones era is over, is the Belldozer era about to start? Edit: Apparently not, as Bob Stoops named Trevor Knight the starting quarterback.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #5 (raw) #6 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #5
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #31 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #4

Landry Jones (4,267 yards, 30 TDs, 11 int) had his critics but he finished his career with a great season and ended up Oklahoma's all-time leading passer with nearly double the yardage of #2 Sam Bradford. Now the question is, who will take over? If fans had their way it would be Blake Bell (107 yards last year) but Bob Stoops isn't promising anything as redshirt freshman Trevor Knight is still in strong contention. The Sooners' two top receivers—Kenny Stills (959 yards, 11 TDs) and Justin Brown (879 yards, 5 TDs)—are gone, but Jalen Saunders (829 yards in 8 games) and Sterling Shepard (621) are back along with 4 other players who had 100+ yards. They also get Jaz Reynolds (755 yards in 2011) back. Whoever starts will have great protection (15 sacks allowed vs. 571 attempts) but matching the output of a player who averaged 4,000 yards over 4 years is not expected.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #61 (raw) #55 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #18 (adj.)

Damien Williams (946 yards, 11 TDs) and Brennan Clay (555 yards, 6 TDs) led a fairly pedestrian Sooner running game but it should get a boost this year. Three other players had over 150 yards and two are back including QB Blake Bell (201 yards, 11 TDs) who was used in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Roy Finch had just 62 yards but had 605 in '11. The offensive line returns four starters and might get another one back later. Seniors Gabe Ikard and Bronson Irwin are joined by juniors Adam Shead and Daryl Williams. Troy Evans was a full-time starter in 2011 and tore his ACL twice but could be back late in the season. With a strong line, a bevy of quality backs, and a running quarterback at the helm or at the very least playing a lot more, ground production should jump.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #71    Pass Defense  per-game: #5   Per-attempt: #7
Defense 4 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #51 (raw) #22 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #58	'12 picks: #35
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #43 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #63	'13 picks: #68

It's good to have a strong pass defense in the Big Twelve but last year the Sooners found out they had a surprisingly vulnerable rushing defense, allowing Tavon Austin to rush for 344 yards. Might things be even worse this year? Three starters are gone from the 4-2-5 defensive line, with Chuka Ndulue (5 sacks) insuring that the pass rush doesn't weaken too much. Corey Nelson returns at linebacker, and the secondary returns two starters including Aaron Colvin (11 pass breakups). But the Sooners lose #1 tackler Tony Jefferson (119 tackles) and Javon Harris (6 interceptions) and will be weaker against the pass too.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Mike Hunnicutt (17 of 21 field goals) is back while punter Tress Way (44.2 average) departs. Junior Jed Barnett will take over.
• Return Game:  Roy Finch averaged 31 yards per kickoff return with one touchdown and Brennan Clay averaged 25.4 yards himself; both are back. Main punt returner Justin Brown (13.6 average, 1 TD) is gone but Jalen Saunders had a TD return in just 5 attempts last year.
• Turnovers projection:  Between the new QB(s) probably throwing more picks than Landry and the defense probably not matching last year's 13, turnovers are a negative this year compared to last.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #15          2012 Recruiting Rank: #10
Oklahoma fans have been getting impatient with Bob Stoops for a long time now. Where's our national title? And why all the big losses in big games? (Last year's Cotton Bowl was yet another example). Stoops is not close to being on the hot seat like Mack Brown at Texas—who had an actual losing season—but the Sooners haven't been living up to expectations for a while. Fans may be even more turned off if Blake Bell isn't named starting quarterback. But they aren't out for his head—yet. This year's recruiting class is the best in the Big Twelve and Stoops' contract was renewed until 2020, so he's going to be around a while whether he wins the big ones or not.

2012 Recap
High expectations once again were not met as Oklahoma went 10-3. They had their traditional lackluster opening game—it was odd seeing them celebrate so hard after a late touchdown against UTEP as they won 24-7—and the 69-point offensive performance against Florida A&M didn't mean much. So when they lost to Kansas State 24-19 at home, it was unclear what the future held for the Sooners.They responded well with their three best games of the season, beating Texas Tech 41-20, Texas 63-21, and Kansas 52-7. So the Sooners were again favored when they hosted Notre Dame, who simply outplayed them 30-13. From there, Oklahoma played well as they won five straight but the defense had its struggles, particularly while allowing 49 to West Virginia and 48 to Oklahoma State, games they won by 1 point and 3 in overtime. The Baylor and TCU wins were a bit shaky, too, far removed from their dominant wins over the Red Raiders and Longhorns. They were taken apart by Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl, another big game bust for the Boomers.

Last year's prediction: The Sooners looked good to us and almost claimed our top spot, but settled for #3. They weren't quite the debacle that USC was but they didn't live up to the ranking. Game-by-game we favored them in all 12, but the cumulative estimate was split between 11-1 and 10-2, and they ended up the latter. So in some ways their year was well within reasonable expectations, and they finished #8 in Strength.

2013 Outlook

Oklahoma 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Monroe	83%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	*West Virginia	92%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Tulsa	87%	W
9/28	Sat	@	Notre Dame	42%	L
10/5	Sat	vs.	*TCU	60%	W
10/12	Sat	N	*Texas	25%	L
10/19	Sat	@	*Kansas	88%	W
10/26	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	83%	W
11/9	Sat	@	*Baylor	52%	W
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	83%	W
11/23	Sat	@	*Kansas State	52%	W
12/7	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	23%	L
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 94%

As usual Oklahoma is expected to win the majority of their games, just not all of them this time around. Notre Dame on the road looks like a loss after last year's 30-13 home loss. Texas in Dallas also looks that way if the Longhorns are as good as we think. And other major rival Oklahoma State on the road is a tough sell, too. With this schedule, 2013 would be a good year to exceed expectations because it would be hard to keep even a 1-loss Oklahoma team out of the national title picture.

But the cumulative estimate gives the Sooners just an 8-4 record as some of their game-by-game wins are questionable. Not Louisiana-Monroe, West Virginia, or Tulsa, though those are all tough teams and Oklahoma's home opener is often competitive for some reason. TCU at home is probably a win though not guaranteed, and later games at Baylor and Kansas State are essentially tossups but we have them in the W column right now. Kansas, Texas Tech, and Iowa State shouldn't be a major concern, but Oklahoma has a habit of giving away an upset here and there.

If Oklahoma ends up #3 in the Big Twelve and the conference has two BCS reps they'll be going back to the Cotton Bowl to face probably the #5 SEC team, which could mean Florida.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #23 UCLA Bruins

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

UCLA Bruins  (Pac-12 #7; South #3)

#23	2012 Results	AP #31 USA #27	Strength:#24  Success:#29  Overall:#27
		Record: 9-5	Bowl: Lost to Baylor 49-26 (Holiday)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #21 | USA #21 | Lindy's #23 | Athlon #27 | Steele #29
		Record: 8-4	Bowl: Fight Hunger (Eligibility odds: 93%)

The Bruin defense might struggle a bit but the offense should be just as good, and excellent recruiting should keep the Bruins in the top 25.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #29 (raw) #21 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #19 (adjusted)

Without Johnathan Franklin, Brett Hundley becomes even more important to the offense.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #34 (raw) #35 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #118
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #21 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #108

Brett Hundley (3,740 yards, 29 TDs, 11 int) lived up to the hype as a freshman last year, and he's obviously become critical to the offense. The offensive line allowed 52 sacks last year; what happens if Hundley is injured? His backups from last year are one and one candidate tranferred, leaving three other redshirt freshman in line. Leading receiver Shaquille Evans (877 yards) is back but the next three receivers including Joseph Fauria (637 yards, 12 TDs) are gone, #5 Steve Manfro (287) is moving to running back and #6 Damiam Thigpen is rehabbing an ACL tear. That still leaves five others who had 100+ yards however. The O-line will reduce the sacks a lot this year as four starters return. Hundley should be even better as a sophomore and the passing game the driver of the offense.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #37 (raw) #34 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #46 (adj.)

Johnathan Franklin (1,734 yards, 13 touchdowns) busted out of the gate last year with two straight 200 yard performances (one against Nebraska) and became the offense's engine. Three other players had over 200 yards: QB Hundley (355), Damian Thigpen (262, out the early part of the season), and Jordan James (214) who is the presumed starter—another candidate is redshirt freshman Paul Perkins. Franklin's numbers are going to be hard to match but a stronger offensive line will help. Three starters were freshmen last year—Jake Brendel, Torian White, and Simon Goines—and they're back with junior Xavier Su'a-Filo, so the line will be better this year and presumably for the next two years as well. Obviously ground production looks slimmer without Franklin but not terrible by any means.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #59    Pass Defense  per-game: #52   Per-attempt: #69
Defense 5 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #59 (raw) #39 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #10	'12 picks: #45
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #56 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #7	'13 picks: #87

Last year's defense was mediocre but had a fearsome pass rush. Despite the loss of defensive end Datone Jones (6.5 sacks, 12.5 tackles for loss) and linebacker Damien Holmes (5.5 sacks) it should be just as powerful as 5 of the front seven are back in the 3-4 defense. Cassius Marsh (8 sacks) leads the way up front and Anthony Barr (13.5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss) is a monster at linebacker, where #1 tackler Eric Kendricks (150 tackles) also returns. Owamagbe Odighizuwa will not be back on the D-line after hip surgery (he was out, then back, now out for sure). The secondary is the problem area as all four starters are gone. Dietrich Riley (started in 2011, out 2012) was supposed to return but he will miss 2013 too. Despite the returning talent in the front seven the defense as a whole drops in our estimation due to a questionable backfield.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Ka'ima Fairbairn (16 of 22 FG last year) is back but punter Jeff Locke (43.3 average) is gone. Freshman Sean Covington will take over.
• Return Game:  Damian Thigpen averaged 26.9 yards per kickoff return and he'll be back at some point, while fellow RB Steven Manfro averaged 8.8 per punt. With Thigpen out early WRs Devin Fuller and Shaquille Evans may get more reps in the fielding unit.
• Turnovers projection:  The defense loses all but 4 of their 15 interceptions and well over half of their pass breakups from last season, pointing to a decline in picks.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #1          2012 Recruiting Rank: #9
Jim Mora has raised recruiting to championship level here, with a top ten class in his first year and now our #1 class of 2013. The Bruins don't have the most superstars—the best of the best, 5-star recruits—but in terms of consensus blue-chips they have an absolute abundance. And there is strength in numbers as sometimes the very top players fizzle out and the 2nd rung players become the great ones. Their top prize—defensive lineman Eddie Vanderdoes of Auburn, CA—actually committed to Notre Dame first and through a convoluted process transferred here and is eligible to play as a freshman. With 17 other consensus blue-chip recruits the effect of this class, and the one before it, points toward a bright future for the Bruins. Not to mention covering for some of this year's personnel losses in areas such as the secondary where Priest Willis from Tempe, AZ should help right away.

2012 Recap
UCLA played one incredible game and one terrible loss. The terrible loss was at California, who finished 3-9, and it was a 43-17 beating. The unbelievable win was a 66-10 destruction of Arizona. The rest of UCLA's season was pretty consistent. When they were good, they beat USC 38-28 and nearly upset Stanford on the road, losing by 3. When they weren't as good they were struggling to hold off Washington State, or losing to Stanford 35-17 at home, and the bowl blowout by Baylor (49-26) counts, too. They beat Nebraska early and won five in row late to go 9-3 in the regular season but had to play Stanford again and ended up 9-5.

Last year's prediction: We didn't give the Bruins enough credit, projecting them 6-6 or 7-5. We did pick the Cal and Stanford losses but not the Nebraska or USC wins.

2013 Outlook

UCLA 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Nevada	97%	W
9/14	Sat	@	Nebraska	59%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	New Mexico State	99%	W
10/3	Thu	@	*Utah	75%	W
10/12	Sat	vs.	*California	94%	W
10/19	Sat	@	*Stanford	38%	L
10/26	Sat	@	*Oregon	11%	L
11/2	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	96%	W
11/9	Sat	@	*Arizona	52%	W
11/15	Fri	vs.	*Washington	49%	L
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	42%	L
11/30	Sat	@	*USC	39%	L
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 93%

The cumulative projection for this season is pretty much exactly on the cusp of 7-5 and 8-4, leaning ever-so slightly to the latter; the "mode" chart suggests 7-5 is more likely by a hair, and the game-by-game projection agrees. Of course two of the November games are too close to call: at Arizona and Washington at home back-to-back could push things either way.

Nevada looks like a win regardless of how many starters might be out for the game (1 or 2, probably), and there's an extra week between the Wolf Pack and Nebraska. The latter is played in Lincoln this year and will be tough; we call it a win but make no promises. New Mexico State at home we can promise.

The Pac-12 season will be more of the same tough slog it's been for years. The Bruins can win at Utah and beat Cal at home but get Stanford and Oregon on the road back-to-back, though we give a decent chance at beating the Cardinal. Colorado at home should be another gimme, then they have the two key tossup games followed by tough contests vs. ASU and at USC.

It looks like UCLA will start about 6-2 and after that it's anyone's guess. As the #7 Pac-12 team (assuming two BCS reps from the Pac-12) UCLA would go to the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl and play BYU.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #24 TCU Horned Frogs

SportsRatings 2013 College Football Pre-season Top 125

TCU Horned Frogs  (Big Twelve #4)

#24	2012 Results	AP #33 USA NR	Strength:#26  Success:#45  Overall:#26
		Record: 7-6	Bowl: Lost to Michigan State 17-16 (BWW)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #20 | USA #20 | Lindy's #22 | Athlon #20 | Steele #17
		Record: 8-4	Bowl: Alamo (Eligibility odds: 94%)

The defense should lead the way again for the Frogs, and if a few returning stars can help the offense step up then it could really be a good year.

Offense 4 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #75 (raw) #64 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #59 (adjusted)

Casey Pachall is back but a lot of last year's offense is not.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #61 (raw) #53 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #85
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #46 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #103

Casey Pachall was having a great season early on (66%, 948 yards, 10 TDs, 1 int) before he went to rehab and Trevone Boykin (2,054 yards, 15 TDs, 10 int) took over. Pachall, who had 2,921 yards, 25 TDs, and 7 interceptions in 2011 is back and presumably sobered up and will again lead the Horned Frog offense. He'll miss #1 receiver Josh Boyce (891 yards, 7 TDs) but #2 Brandon Carter (590, 6) is back along with #s 4 through 6, all of whom had over 150 yards. The offensive line allowed 29 sacks last year and protection could be a bigger problem with three starters gone. It's a bit surprising that we don't show a bigger gain with Pachall back but TCU was just #63 in 2011, so this is a big step up from that while losing their #1 and #3 receivers. Plus, will Pachall pick right up where he left off or will he be rusty from the layoff and detox?

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #68 (raw) #57 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #66 (adj.)

B.J. Catalon (582 yards, 0 TDs) ended up being TCU's leading rusher against all odds. It was supposed to be any of Ed Wesley, Waymon James, or Matthew Tucker, naturally. Tucker finished 2nd with 515 (6 TDs) as he was hurt all year; James was #5 with 168 (9.9 average) and tore his ACL after 2 games; and Wesley quit before the season began. James (875 yards in 2011) is back and should be the starter, though Nebraska transfer Aaron Green (105 in 2011) is a candidate if James isn't 100%. Oh, and Catalon is back, too, don't forget him. QB Boykin added 417 yards and we won't see that from Pachall. The offensive line returns just two starters—Eric Tausch and Aviante Collins—since Tayo Fabuluje recently quit. It doesn't seem there's a proven, 100% healthy back here, the line isn't as strong, and no more running QB; that looks like more mediocre numbers, though a healthy James could change that quickly.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #7    Pass Defense  per-game: #19   Per-attempt: #28
Defense 8 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #23 (raw) #12 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #21	'12 picks: #5
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #6 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #10	'13 picks: #2

The Frogs' killer 4-2-5 returns three starters up front including Devonte Fields (10 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss) and they might even improve on their 29 sacks from last year (Fields is supended for the first two games). The top ten rushing defense might be jeopardized by the loss of both linebackers, as top tackler Kenny Cain (86 tackles) is gone and #2 Joel Hasley recently left the team (he walked-on, now he walked-off). The secondary can pick up some of the slack as all five starters return including Sam Carter (10 pass breakups) and Jason Verrett (15 pass breakups, 6 interceptions). Despite the hole in the middle we see good things and a top ten scoring defense from the Frogs.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker Jaden Obercrom (22 of 30 FG) and punter Ethan Perry (44.5 ave) are back.
• Return Game:  Skye Dawson (23.1 on kickoffs, 9.4 on punts) was the main return man last year and he's gone, but there are good solutions; Brandon Carter (25.1) will move in to take kickoffs and Deante Gray (22.4 average on 7 punts w/1 touchdown return) will field punts.
• Turnovers projection:  No major changes seen.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #36          2012 Recruiting Rank: #34
Gary Patterson is probably getting the best recruits he ever has now that he's in the Big Twelve, but of course the competition is greater. This year's class ranks roughly in the middle of the Pac-12 whereas it would have ranked #1 in the Mountain West.

2012 Recap
TCU lost their top rusher and starting quarterback by game 4, and the losses started mounting after that. They fell to Iowa State 37-23 but walloped Baylor 49-21. The Frogs lost to Texas Tech 56-53 in 3 overtimes and were crushed by Oklahoma State 36-14. They got their own multi-overtime win (39-38 over West Virginia) but lost to Kansas State and Oklahoma, with a win over Texas in-between for a 7-5 record. As expected the bowl game against Michigan State was a defensive struggle, one the Frogs lost 17-16.

Last year's prediction: We got a lot right; we put the Horned Frogs at #27 and in terms of Strength if not success that's right about where they ended up. We also projected a 7-5 season for TCU, even if our wins and losses didn't match up that well. In other words, the cumulative projection of 7-5 was correct, but our game-by-game projection of 7-5 was way off.

2013 Outlook

TCU 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	LSU	51%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	SE Louisiana	100%	W
9/14	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	68%	W
9/28	Sat	vs.	SMU	90%	W
10/5	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	40%	L
10/12	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	95%	W
10/19	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	21%	L
10/26	Sat	vs.	*Texas	31%	L
11/2	Sat	vs.	*West Virginia	91%	W
11/9	Sat	@	*Iowa State	68%	W
11/16	Sat	@	*Kansas State	49%	L
11/30	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	66%	W
Straight up: 8-4  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 94%

Our 8-4 game-by-game prediction for the Horned Frogs includes two very close games: the opener in Arlington against LSU (a game that would flip to the Tigers if Jeremy Hill is allowed to play—but back again to TCU if Devonte Fields plays), and the 2nd-to-last game of the year at Kansas State. Win both of those—and Oklahoma on the road which is within reach—and TCU could be 10-2. They even get Texas at home, so we shouldn't rule that out. Only Oklahoma State on the road looks like a solid loss, and who knows if the Cowboys are going to live up to the hype?

The 8-4 cumulative estimate takes into account TCU's chances of being upset by foes such as Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Baylor (TCU lost to 2 of those 3 last year). The "lock" wins on the schedule appear to be Southeastern Louisiana (of course) and Kansas at home, with SMU and West Virginia not far behind.

If TCU ends up the #4 Big Twelve team they might go to the Alamo Bowl and face the #3 Pac-12 team, perhaps Oregon State.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #22 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish  (Independent #1)

#22	2012 Results	AP #4 USA #3	Strength:#9  Success:#3  Overall:#5
		Record: 12-1	Bowl: Lost to Alabama 42-14 (BCS championship)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #14 | USA #11 | Lindy's #14 | Athlon #8 | Steele #9
		Record: 8-4	Bowl: Liberty/Compass/??? (Eligibility odds: 98%)

Last year we were the most optimistic about Notre Dame of the sources above, ranking the Irish #14 pre-season as opposed to AP #26; USA #24; Lindy's #33; Athlon #20; and Steele #19. This year we are the most pessimistic of the group by a good 10 spots. If they miss the BCS who knows where they will go bowling.

Offense 4 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #82 (raw) #46 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #83 (adjusted)

Last year's offense looked pretty bad until you corrected for the strength of the defenses they faced. This year's offense might actually be that bad.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #72 (raw) #56 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #35
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #85 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #38

Everett Golson (2,405 yards, 12 TDs, 6 int) finally gave Notre Dame a clear leader at quarterback, and right on cue he mysteriously became ineligible due to an academic violation. So Tommy Rees (436 yards, 2:2 last year, 2,871, 20:14 in 2011) will take over once again. #1 receiver Tyler Eifert (685 yards) is gone, and #2 T.J. Jones (649) and #3 DeVaris Daniels (495) are the only returning players with over 100 receiving yards. Rees runs hot and cold but he will do a good job as a senior; without depth of talent at receiver, however, we see a weaker passing game.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #38 (raw) #23 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #59 (adj.)

Notre Dame loses their two main rushers from last season, Theo Riddick (917 yards, 5 TDs) and Cierre Wood (742 yards). George Atkinson (361, 5) will take over and he should do well as he averaged 7.1 yards per carry last year, but he won't replace both Riddick and Wood. Further, departed QB Golson was #4 with 298 (6 TDs) while Rees contributes negative yardage. The offensive line should be just as strong with Zack Martin, Chris Watt, and Christian Lombard all back, but trading two solid backs for one and a running QB for a pocket passer may transform the strong ground game into an average one.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #10    Pass Defense  per-game: #16   Per-attempt: #13
Defense 7 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #2 (raw) #3 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #16	'12 picks: #18
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #3 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #8	'13 picks: #43

Notre Dame had one of the nation's best defenses last year led by linebacker Manti Te'o (team leader with 113 tackles, 7 interceptions) who finished 2nd in Heisman voting. Unfortunately his great Notre Dame career ended with two debacles: his performance against Alabama and the revelation that his deceased long-distance girlfriend was a hoax perpetrated against him. It's hard to imagine the two weren't related as he knew prior to the national championship game that the embarrassing truth was going to be revealed. In any case, he is the biggest loss on the defense. Prince Shembo (7.5 sacks) returns at linebacker but Danny Spond was recently lost for the year. The defensive line of the 3-4 returns two starters as well including Stephon Tuitt (12 sacks) and the team's pass rush should be even better despite losing Kapron Lewis-Moore (6 sacks). Three starters are back in the secondary including Bennett Jackson (4 interceptions) but their picks totals will probably drop without Te'o. Overall they're a step down without their superstar but still rank in the top five.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Kyle Brindza (23 of 31 field goals last year) is back but punter Ben Turk (40.8 average) is gone. Alex Wulfeck averaged 39.7 at Wake Forest in 2011 and should take over though Brindza is vying for the spot too.
• Return Game:  George Atkinson returns after averaging 20.0 yards on kickoffs (he had 2 TDs in 2011), while Davonte Neal (just 2.2 average on 21 punt returns) transferred. T.J. Jones could take over on punts.
• Turnovers projection:  Rees has been more interception-prone than Golson so there's some concern there, but the bigger difference could be due to the defense overachieving last year on interceptions because of Te'o. Their puny pass breakup stats suggest a lot fewer than last year's 16 picks.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #9          2012 Recruiting Rank: #25
Brian Kelly's fourth class is a big winner, and it could have been better. Defensive lineman Eddie Vanderdoes, one of the nation's top recruits, never went to Notre Dame, opting for UCLA instead (technically, he sort of transferred since Notre Dame held him to his letter of intent). Meanwhile, the 2011 class lost its own top recruit as QB Gunner Kiel transferred to Cincinnati. Despite the big ones getting away Kelly, who has had terrible luck since arriving here, managed to build the program back to national-title caliber last year. And they still have uber-blue chip Jaylon Smith, a linebacker from Fort Wayne, Indiana in this year's top ten class.

2012 Recap
Notre Dame's first 9 opponents ended up eligible for a bowl game (Miami opted out), so while a few of the teams on their schedule ended up having disappointing seasons the Irish definitely had one of the tougher slates out there, with 11 bowl-eligible teams out of 13 games. It wasn't exactly a smooth road to 12-0, however. Purdue gave them real trouble (20-17), as did BYU (17-14), while Stanford (OT) and Pittsburgh (3OT) came about as close to winning as a team can without actually winning. The Irish slogged past Michigan and USC, 13-6 and 22-13. On the other hand, Notre Dame demolished Navy 50-10 and Miami 41-3 and thoroughly beat Michigan State (20-3) in East Lansing and Oklahoma (30-13) in Norman. But for all that luck and great play nothing could help them against Alabama, where they laid an egg and were dominated by the Tide 42-14.

Last year's prediction: As we mentioned, no one had the Irish higher-ranked than we did in the pre-season, but at the same time we ranked many of their opponents higher than them. We picked losses to Michigan, Oklahoma, and USC and projected an 8-4 record.

2013 Outlook

Notre Dame 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	vs.	Temple	96%	W
9/7	Sat	@	Michigan	42%	L
9/14	Sat	@	Purdue	81%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Michigan State	74%	W
9/28	Sat	vs.	Oklahoma	58%	W
10/5	Sat	N	Arizona State	34%	L
10/19	Sat	vs.	USC	57%	W
10/26	Sat	@	Air Force	97%	W
11/2	Sat	vs.	Navy	97%	W
11/9	Sat	@	Pittsburgh	86%	W
11/23	Sat	vs.	BYU	70%	W
11/30	Sat	@	Stanford	38%	L
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 98%

Once again we pick 3 losses for the Irish and project an 8-4 season. This time the schedule isn't quite as hard, or rather, doesn't look as hard from a pre-season vantage point as last year's did. After Temple the Irish face Michigan on the road, which we call a close loss. Purdue, Michigan State, even Oklahoma, all look like wins (latter two are at home which helps). The surprise may be Arizona State, whom we favor over the Irish in Arlington, Texas.

We pick the Irish over USC in South Bend (does Notre Dame have a great home schedule this year or what?) and the armed services shouldn't be a problem. Pitt doesn't look like a tough nut to crack on the road but they gave Notre Dame fits at home, so who knows. BYU is a home game and should be a win; Stanford on the road will probably be a loss. That's 9-3, or 8-4 by the cume numbers, and roughly a 1% chance of repeating at 12-0 (though that's higher than the % chance we gave them of doing that last year).

So the team is down a notch, while the schedule could be about equal to how last year's schedule turned out to be. There are probably 9 bowl teams on this schedule. Speaking of bowl games, if Notre Dame doesn't make the BCS—and we don't think they will—there is a question as to where they would go. It's impossible to predict since there are always open spots and the Irish are in heavy demand, but just by the pairings we think the AAC won't fill their slots so the Compass, Liberty, and Beef O' Brady's would be options by that track. The Irish will find something more lucrative than those options I would think, unless they sink to 6-6 or so.

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2013 Pre-season Rankings: #25 Northwestern Wildcats

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Northwestern Wildcats  (Big Ten #3; Legends #2)

#25	2012 Results	AP #17 USA #16	Strength:#29  Success:#21  Overall:#28
		Record: 10-3	Bowl: Beat Mississippi St. 34-20 (Gator)
	2013 Outlook	Picks: AP #22 | USA #22 | Lindy's #28 | Athlon #24 | Steele #32
		Record: 9-3	Bowl: Capital One (Eligibility odds: 99%)

Northwestern can build on last year's success with an even better team.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2012 Scoring Offense: #42 (raw) #27 (adjusted for opposition)
	2013 Projected Scoring Offense: #23 (adjusted)

Kain Colter essentially provides an extra starting quarterback and running back to the team, as well as a backup receiver.

Passing Game	2012 Passing Rank: #111 (raw) #104 (adjusted)	2012 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #33
	2013 Projected Passing Rank: #90 (adjusted)	2103 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #40

Trevor Siemian (1,312 yards, 6 TDs, 3 int) is the passer and Kain Colter (872 yards, 8 TDs, 4 int) is the runner; that's not too much of a simplification. Colter was also the #6 receiver with 169 yards (466 in 2011), the 5th of six players back with over 100 receiving yards (Christian Jones was #1 with 412). The offensive line might be a bit weaker but protection wasn't too bad last year. Overall the passing game should be more productive this season.

Rushing

2012 Rushing Rank: #19 (raw) #14 (adjusted)

2013 Projected Rushing Rank: #12 (adj.)

Venric Mark (1,366 yards, 12 TDs) and QB Kain Colter (894 yards, 12 TDs) led a strong running game and with both back it should be just as good. Brandon Vitabile and Jack Konopka return to the offensive line, but three other starters are lost so the ground game might not make the top ten.

2012 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #33    Pass Defense  per-game: #101   Per-attempt: #35
Defense 7 ret. starters	'12 Scoring Defense: #29 (raw) #43 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #41	'12 picks: #47
	'13 Projected Scoring Defense: #34 (adjusted)	'13 sacks: #36	'13 picks: #28

Northwestern had an impressive defense last year in contrast to some years where the offense won by getting in shootouts with the opponent. The defensive line has two starters back including sacks king Tyler Scott (9 sacks). At linebacker David Nwabuisi (7.5 tackles for loss) is gone but #1 tackler Damien Proby (112 tackles) returns with Chi Chi Ariguzo (7.5 tackles for loss). The secondary has three starters back including Ibraheim Campbell (12 pass breakups). A bit stronger in every area, the defense should once again pull its weight rather than play 2nd fiddle to the offense.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker Jeff Budzien (19 of 20 field goals) and punter Brandon Williams (39.9 average) are back as seniors.
• Return Game:  Venric Mark had two touchdown returns last year, both on punts where he carried an amazing 18.7 average, barely lower than his kickoff return average of 19.8. He's back to do it again.
• Turnovers projection:  Not much difference on the whole, though we see more interceptions on defense.

Coaching/Recruiting      2013 Recruiting Rank: #52          2012 Recruiting Rank: #55
Northwestern is rarely going to have an incredible recruiting class; these last two are about as good as fans can expect. They rank in the lower half of the Big Ten, but not near the bottom. Pat Fitzgerald has taken the Wildcats to an incredible five straight bowl games but last year was the first win (and the team's first since 1948) after many very, very close calls (including two overtime losses). The team's rallying point this year is "5:03", the total amount of time Northwestern trailed, combined, in their three losses last year.

2012 Recap 
Northwestern kicked off with narrow wins over two teams that ended up being pretty decent, 7-5 Syracuse (42-41) and 8-5 Vanderbilt (23-13). Pretty soon they were 5-0, just like the 2010 and 2008 teams were before their first loss. They fell to Penn State 39-28, Nebraska by 1 (29-28), and Michigan in overtime (38-31), with wins over Minnesota and Iowa between, to stand 7-3. They won their last two games with style: on the road at Michigan State 23-20, and at home over Illinois 50-14. The big win, though, was in the bowl game, and it was long overdue as they handled Mississippi State 34-20.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Northwestern #79 and projected a 5-7 year, but we knew that was wrong—Northwestern often confounds our expectations—so we laid out a "best-case" scenario whereby the Wildcats went 8-4. Of course Northwestern surpassed that, too, going 9-3 in the regular season.

2013 Outlook

Northwestern 2013 schedule & forecast
8/31	Sat	@	California	85%	W
9/7	Sat	vs.	Syracuse	85%	W
9/14	Sat	vs.	Western Michigan	95%	W
9/21	Sat	vs.	Maine	98%	W
10/5	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	35%	L
10/12	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	42%	L
10/19	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	85%	W
10/26	Sat	@	*Iowa	76%	W
11/2	Sat	@	*Nebraska	58%	W
11/16	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	49%	L
11/23	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	70%	W
11/30	Sat	@	*Illinois	93%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99%

The Wildcats kick off the year in California, and they should win that game and three more in their home stand: Syracuse, Western Michigan, and Maine each get easier than the last. Then the biggest game of the year in Evanston when Ohio State comes to town. The Wildcats may have a better chance of beating the Buckeyes than anyone this year but it's hard to think the program is ready to pull off that kind of an upset. The trip to Wisconsin looks like their 2nd loss.

Then they should start winning again: Minnesota, Iowa, even Nebraska on the road, before the 2nd big home game: Michigan, and that's a tossup in our book. The 'Cats can beat Michigan State, too, and Illinois ends the season. A 9-3 finish would duplicate last year's result but against a much harder schedule.

Northwestern is an inherently unpredictable team; whether they are good or not they tend to play up to (or down to) their competition. So in a year where we think they'll be good they're probably vulnerable to being upset. But they'll still be able to upset teams, and any upsets they get this year will be big ones. If the Wildcats are the #3 Big Ten team, assuming two BCS bowl teams from the conference, they'll go to the Capital One Bowl and face an SEC team, perhaps Georgia.

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