Ohio State just finished their year 12-0. Banned from the post-season, their last game was a 26-21 victory over Michigan.
That begs the question: where should the Buckeyes be ranked? They aren't going to the Big Ten title game nor to a bowl game, meaning they don't have to "back up" their 12-0 record. But what do they have to prove, since only one other team finished unbeaten? Should Ohio State be #2, with a chance to be #1 if Notre Dame loses?
In most years, the answer would be yes. If the Big Ten were at normal strength, and the Buckeyes had played any semblance of a top team during the non-conference schedule, they would have made a convincing case for being considered national champ, probation or not. But this wasn't a normal Big Ten season; the league is as weak this year as its ever been, with only Nebraska joining the Buckeyes in our top 25—and no teams in our Strength power rating top 20. And the Buckeye pre-conference slate of Miami Ohio (4-8), Central Florida (9-3), California (3-9), and UAB (3-9) doesn't cut it.
The UCF win isn't bad, but the Knights aren't a great team by any measure. Ohio State's best win by far was a 63-38 defeat of Nebraska, who finished 10-2 and is playing for the Big Ten title that the Buckeyes are ineligible for.
Other than the Cornhuskers and UCF, however, the Buckeyes had trouble with every bowl-eligible team they faced. They edged 6-6 Michigan State by a point, 17-16; needed overtime to beat 6-6 Purdue 29-22; needed overtime again to beat 7-5 Wisconsin 21-14; and narrowly defeated 8-4 Michigan on Saturday, 26-21.They also beat ineligible 8-4 Penn State 35-23.
The Buckeyes even had trouble with 4-8 Indiana, escaping 52-49. Some might compare this team's "will to win" with the 2002 national championship team, which had several narrow escapes throughout the year en route to beating Miami. If this year's team got the chance, couldn't they beat Notre Dame or Alabama? After all, almost no one gave them a chance against the Hurricanes in 2002.
But that's a poor comparison. The 2002 team was great when they had Maurice Clarett, and they struggled when he was injured or gone, which was much of the year. That was a much better team than this year's model; though they ranked outside the top 10 without Clarett, they were among the top teams with him, which they showed early on by beating Washington State 25-7. And when they didn't have him, they won close games due to defense.
This year's team won close games due to a very poor Big Ten, and luck. They don't even rank in the top 20 in our Strength power rating, sitting at #22 in our All-Division Strength ratings currently.
No, the correct comparison for this Ohio State team isn't the 2002 model; it's actually the 1993 Auburn Tigers.
That Auburn team finished 11-0, winning three games by four points or less, and playing only two teams with winning records. They ranked #19 in our Strength power rating, and were banned from post-season play and therefore didn't face a final test, though they beat rival Alabama (8-3-1) on the season's last weekend, 22-14. The Tigers finished at #4 in the final AP poll, behind 1-loss teams Florida State, Notre Dame, and Nebraska.
That's a fair indication of where Ohio State should finish, too. Currently they sit at #4 in the AP poll, behind Notre Dame, Alabama, and Georgia. They're also #4 in the SportsRatings Top 25, behind Notre Dame, Georgia, and Florida. If #5 Alabama beats Georgia, the Tide will jump ahead of the Buckeyes while the Bulldogs fall behind. We certainly disagree with the Buckeyes being ahead of Florida as they are in the AP, since Florida holds wins over the #9, #10, #11, and #13 teams in the AP poll.
If several of the top teams finish with 2 losses, the Buckeyes could finish as high as #2, but there's no scenario where I think they should be ranked #1. I'd consider any team that finishes with a) one loss to a top 25 team and b) two or more wins over top 25 teams, to be ahead of the Buckeyes in terms of achievement this year. Those teams could include any of Notre Dame, Georgia/Alabama, Florida, and Oregon, so Ohio State will end up anywhere from #2 to #5, but probably #3 or #4.
That's fair for a team that is very good, but not great, and certainly not one of the great Ohio State teams like Urban Meyer asserted yesterday. They haven't faced a top team and won't get the chance to, so we have to judge them on what they've done, not what they might do. And based on what they've done—which is to struggle to beat almost everyone on their mediocre schedule—we have no reason to conclude they'd compete with this year's very best teams.
They're just lucky they didn't have to face my Mighty Northwestern Wildcats this season!
Posted by: Max Power | December 03, 2012 at 10:16 PM