SportsRatings: College Football

Kent State in the BCS? Don't blame the computers

In an op ed of sorts on Sports Illustrated's site, Ed Feng laments Kent State's presence in the BCS bowl race:

"Kent State...lost 47-14 to a Kentucky team that didn't win a single SEC game. How can it be in a position for a BCS berth?"

Well, some would argue because they beat all the rest of their opponents, including Rutgers on the road, and will finish 12-1 if they win on Friday night. Others would agree that their MAC schedule isn't tough enough for a valid BCS team. But undeniably, by the rules of the BCS, they might actually qualify.

Feng blames the computers, then narrows the problem to a specific computer ranking:

"...the Colley Matrix, the one fully transparent computer poll, does not use...game-specific information. The system considers a team's win-loss record and strength of schedule; yet, the results of each individual game are not counted as an input. The method doesn't care whether Kent State's loss came against Kentucky or against Rutgers."

Sounds like a valid complaint; this lack of game-by-game cognizance is one of the (many) things that makes the RPI so frustrating for its use as a March Madness tool. But Colley is only one of six computers used in the BCS. Shouldn't there be some diversity of method among the six? They're already fairly highly correlated due to the lack of use of margin of victory—another of his complaints, which also has validity but can't really be held against the computer algorithm creators. Why enforce more rules that make them even more similar?

Still, apparently it's the ugly loss to Kentucky that should ban Kent State:

"Losing to 2-10 Kentucky would presumably hurt the Flashes' ranking. If they had lost to 9-2 Rutgers instead, the computer poll could assign Kent State a different, and presumably higher, ranking."

That's a good point, but tell me why a team should be ranked higher after it dispenses with its best win by far? Sure, dropping the Kentucky loss should help Kent State's ranking in any reasonable system. But dumping the win over Rutgers should hurt Kent State's ranking in any reasonable system. Who is to say what the balance of those two is?

"If Kent State loses to Rutgers (25th in Colley's rankings) but beats Kentucky (98th), common sense indicates its rank should improve."

Oh, common sense. I see.

He confirms that, in the game-switching scenario, Kent State drops a spot in Colley's method. Or rather, Rutgers moves ahead of them, thereby pushing Kent State down a spot.

"the Flashes actually drop one place. In this scenario, Rutgers has a 10-1 record instead of a 9-2 mark and therefore moves ahead of Kent State."

So basically, trading the loss of their best win for dropping their worst loss results in a wash. But Rutgers is now ahead of Kent State which changes things drastically—Kent State is no longer up for a BCS bowl as things stand.

Talk about missing the forest for the trees. The problem of Rutgers being behind Kent State—which may cause Kent State to go to a BCS bowl—could have been rectified easily if Rutgers hadn't lost to Kent State. The Flashes would be 10-2, with no potential to be in the top 16.

Bottom line is, if you don't want Kent State in a BCS bowl because they're ahead of Rutgers, either a) don't make a rule that Kent State will be in a BCS bowl if it's ahead of Rutgers, or b) make sure Rutgers beats Kent State in their head-to-head matchup.

Don't blame one computer program, ignoring the other five computer programs. Colley ranks Kent State 15th, just like Billingsley and Peter Wolfe. For each team, the top (and bottom) computer ranking are discarded. So it wouldn't matter if Colley ranked Kent State 50th, the composite score would be the same.

And attacking the computer programs as a whole? Still not valid. Kent State's computer composite (18th) is very close to their poll rankings (18th and 19th). The computers would have to downgrade Kent State well below where the pollsters are putting them to make a real difference in their BCS bowl aspirations come Sunday. In other words, he's blaming the computers for not acting as gatekeepers for what the human pollsters want to do—which is, rank Kent State near the top 16.

Instead, it looks as thought the computers are going to rubber stamp a "bad" decision by the humans, which he says would "cost" the Big 12 millions of dollars by pushing Oklahoma out of the BCS.

And that gets to the real issue. Both the pollsters and computers rank Oklahoma higher than Kent State. So it's not even the pollsters' fault, let alone computers' fault, that Kent State could get to a BCS bowl.

Blame the BCS rules, or blame the Big East for sucking so bad, or more specifically blame Rutgers for not taking care of the "problem" when they could have.

Week 14 Preview, Odds, & Predictions: Louisville-Rutgers, Northern Illinois-Kent State, UCLA-Stanford

Three of the eight games that determine the BCS bowl lineup are played on Thursday and Friday, and before the weekend we'll know who is in half of the Rose Bowl and who the Big East champion is. But if Kent State beats Northern Illinois, the Big East champ may be headed to the Sugar Bowl instead of the Orange Bowl, which the Golden Flashes want to claim for themselves.

Thursday Night

#25 Louisville (9-2) vs. #24 Rutgers (9-2)
Line/spread/odds: Rutgers by 3
Strength power rating prediction: Rutgers 20-18
Yardage analysis prediction: Louisville 20-14
Analysis: Both of these teams are unranked in the BCS standings, the result of both teams being upset last weeks, and this is why Kent State now has a shot at a BCS game. But the winner here is guaranteed a BCS bowl, which will be the Sugar Bowl if Kent State gets in, or the Orange bowl if they don't. Both teams have achieved what they have this season due to easy schedules. Louisville was the media darling in the pre-season, while we placed them #53 in the nation and they haven't done anything to alter our initial estimate. Rutgers on the other hand has played as well on defense as we predicted but their offense has been dismal, so despite their record they haven't matched our #30 estimate. Still, with the game at Rutgers, they have a small advantage and should win the game based on defensive play. They can stop Louisville on the ground pretty easily but they'll need to slow down the Cardinals' passing game to do so, and Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater is injured but playing. It also may turn out that Rutgers' beatdown loss to Pitt was actually less harmful than Louisville's triple-overtime loss to UConn.
Final prediction: Rutgers 17, Louisville 14

Friday Night

#10 Stanford (10-2) vs. #21 UCLA (9-3)
Line/spread/odds: Stanford by 8
Strength power rating prediction: Stanford 27-20
Yardage Analysis prediction: Stanford 27-21
Analysis: How often, in the history of college football, have teams faced each other in two straight weeks? Has it ever happened? Teams playing twice in one year is an anomaly—it occurs a couple of times, due to conference championship games or bowl rematches—but in back-to-back weeks it's unheard of. Sometimes when teams play again after several months go by, the results are very different: in 2001, Texas beat Colorado 41-7 on October 20 but lost 39-37 in the Big 12 championship on December 1st. More recently, Nebraska pummeled Washington 56-21 in September but lost in a bowl game in late December 19-7. Stanford beat UCLA 35-17 last week in Los Angeles, and now they're playing at home, so don't expect a radically different outcome. But factors such as motivation can work against the Cardinal, so I wouldn't expect them to expand upon their margin of victory from last weekend. Unless Jim Mora was having his team sandbag it last week to avoid facing Oregon in the title game, it should more of the same, with both teams a little more sluggish.
Final Prediction: Stanford 24, UCLA 13

#15 Kent State (11-1) vs. #16 Northern Illinois (11-1) in Detroit, Michigan
Line/spread/odds: Northern Illinois by 6 1/2
Strength power rating prediction: Northern Illinois 35-25
Yardage analysis prediction: Northern Illinois 38-24
Analysis: This year's BCS bowl lineup was looking pretty straightforward until Kent State landed at #17 in last week's rankings. A few things have to happen for Kent State to make a BCS bowl. UCLA, who is #16 in the BCS, needs to lose to open up a spot. And Texas at #18 has to lose to make sure the Longhorns don't pass the Golden Flashes. Both of those are expected, and should be enough. Oh, and Kent State has to beat Northern Illinois, too. Both teams are 11-1 but Kent State generally ranks higher since they have the most impressive win, a 35-23 victory over Rutgers on the road. The Flashes also have the worst loss, a 47-14 beatdown at 2-10 Kentucky; meanwhile Northern Illinois lost by a point to Iowa in Chicago. As far as power ratings are concerned NIU has a huge edge, ranking almost in the top 30 while Kent State is in the 60s nationally, and that's why they're favored. However, it looks like Kent State is peaking at the right time, gaining more confidence every week, and they're capable of pulling off the upset. Hopefully the BCS bowl talk hasn't thrown them off, and Northern Illinois could be a bit peaved that they have no real chance at making the top 16 despite also going undefeated in the MAC so far. But Kent State is surging and could pull off the upset, and in the process make finalizing the BCS bowl lineup as chaotic as usual.
Final Prediction: Kent State 41, Northern Illinois 34

 

2012-2013 BCS Bowl Predictor widget: Test every BCS bowl scenario & projection

So who is going to be in which BCS bowl game? This year is a lot more straightforward than last year, though the chance of Kent State becoming an automatic qualifier is very real and could shake things up.

There are eight games that could reasonably affect the BCS Bowl lineup. This simple tool should show what will happen under all outcomes of those eight games. Just click on the team on the left hand side that you think might win this weekend and the results are generated automatically.

There are a few grey areas, of course, and sometimes "style points", i.e. margin of victory, can influence the human pollsters enough that things can't be encapsulated by winner/loser, but for the most part this should tell you what will happen. And as always, the selection committee for a given bowl may offer up a surprise.

Welcome to the 2012-2013 version of the BCS Bowl Predictor!

Here's our rundown of each team's chances (listed by current BCS standings, with updates highlighted):

1. Notre Dame: They're in, and they're in the Big One. Pretty simple.
2. Alabama: Beat Georgia in the SEC final and they're in the Big One, too. Lose and they probably don't get any BCS bowl. At 10-2 they'll fall below #4 Florida, who will be the 2nd SEC team selected. Update: They won, they're in.
3. Georgia: Like Alabama, win and they're in the BCS Championship, lose and they're out of BCS bowl luck, for the same reason as Alabama: #4 Florida will be the #2 SEC team. Update: With the loss, Georgia is out of the BCS. Had they remained well ahead of Florida in the polls they might have had a shot, but they fell a few spots below in the coaches poll.
4. Florida: The Gators can't get in the BCS Championship game but they're essentially a lock for the Sugar Bowl. Only a really bizarre occurence (perhaps Alabama losing by a point in triple overtime, on a really bad call so that the pollsters keep the Tide at #2 in the polls? It's hard to think of a scenario) can keep Florida out of the #3 spot and a guaranteed bid. Their opponent could be any of Oklahoma, Clemson, Rutgers, or Louisville depending on other results, with Kansas State and Texas having an outside chance to land here. Update: Florida will probably play Oklahoma in the Sugar.
5. Oregon: The Ducks are basically locked into the Fiesta Bowl, as the consensus is they're a lock to be chosen to face the Big Twelve winner. Update: Pretty much a done deal, we'd guess.
6. Kansas State: The Wildcats aren't quite in Alabama and Georgia's shoes; that is, they don't need to win to make the Fiesta Bowl and if they aren't in it, they have a glimmer of hope to get the Sugar Bowl. The sure part is, if they beat Texas they're in the Fiesta Bowl. And even if they lose to Texas, an Oklahoma loss still puts them in the Fiesta Bowl. The question is, if they lose and Oklahoma wins, can K-State get the Sugar Bowl bid? It probably goes to Clemson, just like Virginia Tech got the bid last year. But you never know. Remember that if Kent State gets into the mix, the Sugar Bowl is closed off anyway. Update: Kansas State took care of any doubts by beating Texas, so they're in the Fiesta Bowl.
7. LSU: The Tigers really don't have any chance of making a BCS bowl since three SEC teams are ahead of them, and two will get a guaranteed bid.
8. Stanford: Stanford has to beat UCLA for the 2nd week in a row to clinch a Rose Bowl berth. Lose and they're out of luck; they won't be an at-large team since Oregon will be taken, closing out the Pac-12 possibilities. Update: with their 2nd straight win over UCLA, the Cardinal are in the Rose Bowl.
9. Texas A&M: See LSU.
10. South Carolina: See LSU.
11. Oklahoma: The Sooners need to beat TCU and have Texas beat Kansas State; that will put them in the Fiesta Bowl. If Kansas State beats Texas, Oklahoma should get the Sugar Bowl bid opposite Florida. However, if Kent State becomes an automatic qualifier, the Sugar Bowl bid disappears. So Oklahoma fans should root for Northern Illinois to win on Friday, and if Kent State wins a UCLA upset of Stanford ought to keep the Golden Flashes out of the mix. If not, then Texas upsetting Kansas State should do the trick, but if that happens the Sooners will have their eyes on the Fiesta Bowl anyway. Update: Beating TCU, along with Kansas State's win over Texas, almost certainly sends Oklahoma to the Sugar Bowl. There's still a small threat from Northern Illinois making the top 16, but it's not likely. UPDATE: Now some sources are saying it's going to happen. Cross your fingers, Sooners fans.
12. Nebraska: The Cornhuskers go to the Rose Bowl with a win over Wisconsin. With a loss, they probably don't stay in the top 14 to get an at-large bid. Clemson fans should root for Wisconsin. Update: Nebraska was crushed and won't go to the Rose Bowl.
13. Florida State: Beat Georgia Tech and they're in the Orange Bowl. Lose and they're out of the top 14, and out of the running. Update: Seminoles won, headed for the Orange Bowl.
14. Clemson: The Tigers have to wait for other teams to lose, and hope things don't work out to jostle them out of at-large territory (the top 14). Their best shot at a BCS bowl is to get a bid to the Sugar Bowl, which should happen if Oklahoma loses. If Oklahoma wins and Kansas State loses, Kansas State becomes a rival at-large team for the position but last year Virginia Tech was taken over the Wildcats and history would probably repeat. If UCLA upsets Stanford the Bruins could jump from #16 to knock them to #15, but their lead is fairly large. Good results for Clemson would be a Nebraska loss, and especially, a loss by #13 Florida State, both of which could give the Tigers some insurance to stay in the top 14. A very bad result for Clemson would be Kent State getting in the BCS mix, which closes down the Sugar Bowl pipeline. Update: The Big Twelve didn't do Clemson any favors, so it's unlikely they'll be the Sugar Bowl choice.
15. Oregon State: The Beavers are in a position like the SEC teams, with too many conference-mates ahead of them, and additionally they're not in at-large territory. Doesn't matter if they get there, either.
16. UCLA: The Bruins must beat Stanford. Then they're in the Rose Bowl. Update: UCLA lost and won't be in a BCS bowl.
17. Kent State: Somehow the Flashes have put themselves in line to be a true BCS buster. They need to get just one more spot and beating Northern Illinois might do it, but it's likely they need help. UCLA has to lose to Stanford, which is expected. Also, Texas can't upset Kansas State. That's not expected. So basically, Kent State should be in good shape if they beat NIU to win the MAC. UCLA loses and they move in at #16, and stay ahead of Texas and both Louisville and Rutgers, and go to the Orange Bowl. It's got a very good shot of happening. Update: Close, but no cigar. The Flashes lost in overtime; they'll go to a bowl game, but not a BCS bowl.
18. Texas: The Longhorns are a BCS longshot, as they need to get into the top 14. They're a big draw so if they manage that they'll probably be in the Sugar Bowl. But it's unlikely to happen, even if they beat Kansas State. They won't likely pass #14 Clemson or even #15 Oregon State, so their chances rest on losses by both FSU and Nebraska, and getting picked ahead of Clemson. Here an Oklahoma win puts the Sooners in the Fiesta Bowl; an Oklahoma loss keeps the Sooners in the at-large bin along with Texas whom they beat 65-21. In the latter case, we see the Sugar choosing Clemson to avoid the hassle. Update: The Longhorns lost, making any other speculation moot.
19. Michigan: No chance here.
20. Boise State: The Broncos have one more game, and got a huge gift from the coaches and Harris polls which lofted them to #15 and #17 respectively, but their computer ranking is still stuck at #30 and there's no way they'll make the top 16. Update: The Broncos beat Nevada but remained at #15 in the coaches poll, and probably won't be higher than #25 in the computer composite. That won't put them in the top 16, and Northern Illinois probably passes them.
21. Nothern Illinois: Kent State is the MAC team with the BCS shot. The Huskies can pass Boise State and Kent State to become the top non-AQ conference winner, but getting into the top 16 will be tough. A loss by UCLA to Stanford—who already beat them—isn't going to drop the Bruins in the polls much, so they'll probably remain ahead of NIU even if everyone else clears out. If they do somehow make it, they'll take the Orange Bowl slot of course. Update: The Huskies won in overtime over Kent State to keep their tiny chances alive for a BCS bowl, but it still doesn't look like a realistic possibility. If Texas loses, and Florida State, Nebraska, and Oklahoma all lose by blowout losses, some of them might fall far enough to make things interesting. But even #16 UCLA is likely to remain ahead of the Huskies since they lost by such a small margin to a top-ten team they had to play twice. Update 2: Nebraska's loss was damaging enough that it could drop the Cornhuskers quite a ways in the BCS standings. UCLA also fell a few spots despite playing Stanford closer than the previous game. Northern Illinois is #16 in the coaches poll, and will be close to that in the Harris poll. The Huskies will get very close to making the BCS, but it looks like they'll probably finish #17. UPDATE: Rumors are rampant that NIU has squeeked past Nebraska. If so, NIU can thank Wisconsin for the beatdown they put on the Cornhuskers for edging past them. And/or the voters for knocking UCLA down a few spots for losing by 3 to a team they'd already played.
    

Louisville and Rutgers aren't ranked in the top 25 of the BCS, but the winner [update: Louisville won 20-17] of their head-to-head clash will be either in the Orange or Sugar. A Rutgers win and the Scarlett Knights win the Big East outright; a Louisville win and the Cardinals are part of either a 4-team or 3-team tie at the top, depending on whether Cincinnati wins Saturday. It doesn't matter in the end, as Louisville would win tiebreakers in both scenarios. And since they won on Thursday night, the Cardinals are headed to a BCS bowl.

Why on earth did the coaches pop Boise State up to #15 ???

The AP and Coaches polls pretty much move in lock-step. There are differences, particularly in that the AP will rank ineligible teams such as Ohio State, and sometimes teams will differ in the rankings between the two polls by a few spots. A 5-spot difference is fairly unusual.

So today's coaches poll was a shock when Boise State came in at #15, a full 10 spots higher than the Broncos rank in the AP poll. Call it 9 spots difference after accounting for Ohio State's presence in the AP, but still, that's huge.

It's not hard to see how it happened: the dreaded "rung" effect where a team, already in the rankings, wins its game while a number of teams ahead of it lose. The winner (in this case Boise State) gets pushed up as the other teams fall below. Certainly, beating Colorado State wasn't considered that impressive; Boise was just in the right place at the right time.

Not so in the AP poll, as the Broncos weren't in the rankings last week so they didn't get pushed up. If they had been outside of the top 25 last week in the coaches' poll, they'd probably be entering this week in the 20s.

In any case, the AP has it right. Boise State does not deserve to be #15 in the nation. #25 is about right for a team that has beat nobody and has two losses to unranked teams.

But because of the high Coaches poll ranking, the Broncos are ridiculously knocking on the door for an automatic BCS berth, which they'll get if they can finish in the top 16. They just have to beat Nevada next Saturday to win a share of the Mountain West crown, and hope that they make the top 16.

What stands in their way? Well, the Harris poll followed suit, but not quite as bad, putting Boise State at #17. The real roadblock for Boise is going to be the computer composite, where they were #30 last week and probably won't be in the top 25 this week. In fact, around #25 might be what they can expect if they beat Nevada. So even if they gain a couple spots in the polls next week, they'll probably still come up short of the top 16.

Interestingly the coaches rank Boise ahead of Kent State and Northern Illinois, both of whom are 11-1. Kent State even has a quality win—over Rutgers, another team possibly headed for a BCS bowl. Clearly, Boise State's name recognition is helping it here. Unlike in previous years when the Broncos got too little respect, this year they are getting too much respect, due to their reputation.

Kent State and Northern Illinois play each other next weekend for the MAC title, and the winner could conceivably make the top 16, perhaps finishing ahead of Boise which would steal the Broncos' automatic BCS bowl bid. To do that they'd need a UCLA loss, probably a Nebraska loss, and a Boise loss wouldn't hurt, either.

Where should 12-0 Ohio State be ranked?

Ohio State just finished their year 12-0. Banned from the post-season, their last game was a 26-21 victory over Michigan.

That begs the question: where should the Buckeyes be ranked? They aren't going to the Big Ten title game nor to a bowl game, meaning they don't have to "back up" their 12-0 record. But what do they have to prove, since only one other team finished unbeaten? Should Ohio State be #2, with a chance to be #1 if Notre Dame loses?

In most years, the answer would be yes. If the Big Ten were at normal strength, and the Buckeyes had played any semblance of a top team during the non-conference schedule, they would have made a convincing case for being considered national champ, probation or not. But this wasn't a normal Big Ten season; the league is as weak this year as its ever been, with only Nebraska joining the Buckeyes in our top 25—and no teams in our Strength power rating top 20. And the Buckeye pre-conference slate of Miami Ohio (4-8), Central Florida (9-3), California (3-9), and UAB (3-9) doesn't cut it.

The UCF win isn't bad, but the Knights aren't a great team by any measure. Ohio State's best win by far was a 63-38 defeat of Nebraska, who finished 10-2 and is playing for the Big Ten title that the Buckeyes are ineligible for.

Other than the Cornhuskers and UCF, however, the Buckeyes had trouble with every bowl-eligible team they faced. They edged 6-6 Michigan State by a point, 17-16; needed overtime to beat 6-6 Purdue 29-22; needed overtime again to beat 7-5 Wisconsin 21-14; and narrowly defeated 8-4 Michigan on Saturday, 26-21.They also beat ineligible 8-4 Penn State 35-23.

The Buckeyes even had trouble with 4-8 Indiana, escaping 52-49. Some might compare this team's "will to win" with the 2002 national championship team, which had several narrow escapes throughout the year en route to beating Miami. If this year's team got the chance, couldn't they beat Notre Dame or Alabama? After all, almost no one gave them a chance against the Hurricanes in 2002.

But that's a poor comparison. The 2002 team was great when they had Maurice Clarett, and they struggled when he was injured or gone, which was much of the year. That was a much better team than this year's model; though they ranked outside the top 10 without Clarett, they were among the top teams with him, which they showed early on by beating Washington State 25-7. And when they didn't have him, they won close games due to defense.

This year's team won close games due to a very poor Big Ten, and luck. They don't even rank in the top 20 in our Strength power rating, sitting at #22 in our All-Division Strength ratings currently.

No, the correct comparison for this Ohio State team isn't the 2002 model; it's actually the 1993 Auburn Tigers.

That Auburn team finished 11-0, winning three games by four points or less, and playing only two teams with winning records. They ranked #19 in our Strength power rating, and were banned from post-season play and therefore didn't face a final test, though they beat rival Alabama (8-3-1) on the season's last weekend, 22-14. The Tigers finished at #4 in the final AP poll, behind 1-loss teams Florida State, Notre Dame, and Nebraska.

That's a fair indication of where Ohio State should finish, too. Currently they sit at #4 in the AP poll, behind Notre Dame, Alabama, and Georgia. They're also #4 in the SportsRatings Top 25, behind Notre Dame, Georgia, and Florida. If #5 Alabama beats Georgia, the Tide will jump ahead of the Buckeyes while the Bulldogs fall behind. We certainly disagree with the Buckeyes being ahead of Florida as they are in the AP, since Florida holds wins over the #9, #10, #11, and #13 teams in the AP poll.

If several of the top teams finish with 2 losses, the Buckeyes could finish as high as #2, but there's no scenario where I think they should be ranked #1. I'd consider any team that finishes with a) one loss to a top 25 team and b) two or more wins over top 25 teams, to be ahead of the Buckeyes in terms of achievement this year. Those teams could include any of Notre Dame, Georgia/Alabama, Florida, and Oregon, so Ohio State will end up anywhere from #2 to #5, but probably #3 or #4.

That's fair for a team that is very good, but not great, and certainly not one of the great Ohio State teams like Urban Meyer asserted yesterday. They haven't faced a top team and won't get the chance to, so we have to judge them on what they've done, not what they might do. And based on what they've done—which is to struggle to beat almost everyone on their mediocre schedule—we have no reason to conclude they'd compete with this year's very best teams.

2012 SportsRatings Top 25 - week 13: SEC is stronger than ever

The SportsRatings Top 25 is our answer to the AP and coaches' polls. This subjective "poll" properly reflects head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

No Change in Top 5: Nothing out of the ordinary—or violating the top 5 order—occurred over the long Thanksgiving rivalry weekend, leaving the top 5 intact. #1 Notre Dame handled USC 22-13 to remain unbeaten and finish 12-0. #2 Georgia throttled Georgia Tech 42-10, #3 Florida beat Florida State 37-26, #4 Ohio State got past Michigan 26-21, and #5 Alabama demolished Auburn 49-0.

Oregon dispatched Oregon State 48-24 on the road, giving them a strong top 25 win and popping the Ducks back up to #6. After that the teams at #7, 8, and 9 remain the same. LSU had trouble with Arkansas before winning 20-13, Kansas State was idle, and Texas A&M overwhelmed Missouri 59-29.

Stanford rounds out the top 10, jumping from #15 after beating UCLA 35-17. With San Jose State's entry into the top 25 the Cardinal now have four top 25 wins, equal to Florida's total.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 13 2012 (thru 11/24/2012)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Résumé: Losses; important wins
1	1	Notre Dame	12-0	w@Oklahoma 30-13, Stanford 20-13ot
2	2	Georgia	11-1	L@SCar 35-7; w=Florida 17-9
3	3	Florida	11-1	L=Ga 17-9; wLSU 14-6, TexAM 20-17, SCar 44-11, @FSU 37-26
4	4	Ohio State	12-0	wNebraska 63-38
5	5	Alabama	11-1	L TexAM 29-24; w@LSU 21-17
12	6	Oregon	11-1	L Stanford 17-14ot; w@OreSt 48-24
7	7	LSU	10-2	L@Fla 14-6, Bama 21-17; wSCar 23-21, @TexAM 24-19
8	8	Kansas State	10-1	L@Baylor 52-24; w@Oklahoma 24-19
9	9	Texas A&M	10-2	L FLA 20-17, LSU 24-19; w@Bama 29-24, @LTech 59-57
15	10	Stanford	10-2	L@Wash 17-13, @ND 20-13ot;  w@Ore 17-14ot, OreSt 27-23, @UCLA 35-17, SJSt 20-17
13	11	South Carolina	10-2	L@LSU 23-21, @FLA 44-11; wGeorgia 35-7, @Clemson 27-17
11	12	Oklahoma	9-2	L ND 30-13, KSt 24-19; w=Tex 63-21
6	13	Florida State	10-2	L@NCState 17-16, Fla 37-26; wClemson 49-37
10	14	Clemson	10-2	L@FSU 49-37, SCar 27-17; wBallSt 52-27
16	15	Kent State	11-1	L@Kentucky 47-14; w@Rutgers 35-23, BallSt 45-43
19	16	N. Illinois	11-1	L=Iowa 18-17; w@BallSt 35-23
21	17	Utah State	10-2	L@Wisc 16-14, @BYU 6-3; wLaTech 48-41ot, SJSt 49-27
--	18	San Jose St	10-2	L UtahSt 49-27, @Stanford 20-17; wLaTech 52-43
24	19	Nebraska	10-2	L@UCLA 36-30, @OhioSt 63-38
18	20	Oregon State	8-3	L@Wash 20-17, @Stan 27-23, Ore 48-24; wUCLA 27-20
20	21	UCLA	9-3	L@Cal 43-17, OreSt 27-20, Stanford 35-17; wNeb 36-30
25	22	Ball State	9-3	L@KentSt 45-43, NIU 35-23, @Clem 52-27
22	23	Louisiana Tech	9-3	L TexAM 59-57, UtahSt 48-41ot, @SJSt 52-43
17	24	Rutgers	9-2	L@Pitt 27-6, KentSt 35-23
14	25	Louisville	9-2	L UConn 23-20ot, @Syr 45-26
		out:
23	--	Texas	8-3	L WVa 48-45, TCU 20-13, =OK 63-21

South Carolina moves up to #11 from #13 after beating Clemson 27-17. Combined with Florida's win over FSU—also on the road—and Georgia's destruction of Georgia Tech, the SEC's domination of the ACC is underscored yet again. In one weekend, SEC teams beat the two teams that are easily the best in the league, and another that is playing for the ACC title. What's more, it shows that the SEC is not slowing down at all—in fact, it's getting stronger if anything, with teams at #2, #3, #5, #7, #9, and #11, or 6 of the top 11 spots. There's a clear line from the SEC's dominance in recruiting to its dominance on the field.

Oklahoma falls back a notch to #12 after needing overtime to edge Oklahoma State 51-48. The Sooners also lose their only top 25 win as Texas falls out, leaving just two Big 12 teams in the rankings. Florida State and Clemson—the only two ACC teams—land at #13 and #14 after their losses. Interestingly, the teams at #14, 15, and 16 all beat Ball State, with the Tigers the most convincing victor among they and Kent State and Northern Illinois. The Golden Flashes beat 28-6 and the Huskies defeated Eastern Michigan 49-7 to set up a showdown for the MAC title. Interestingly, we rank more MAC teams (3) than Big 12 or ACC teams, as Ball State—whose three losses are all to top 25 teams—moves up to #22 after beating Miami Ohio 31-24.

There are also 3 WAC teams in the rankings now. Utah State beat Idaho 45-9 to finish 10-2 with wins over San Jose State and Louisiana Tech. The former beat the latter 52-43 in yet another shootout loss for the Bulldogs, who are 9-3 with three narrow losses to top 25 teams. They drop to #23 while San Jose State debuts at #18. The Spartans narrowly lost to Stanford, 20-17, in the first game of the season.

The Big Ten's only other rep, Nebraska, escaped 13-7 at Iowa to finish 10-2 and moves up to #19. Oregon State and UCLA—losers to Oregon and Stanford—fall to #20 and #21.

Rutgers and Louisville, the best that the Big East can hold out, both lost in upsets to losing teams on Saturday. The Scarlett Knights, soon headed to the Big Ten, were blown out at Pitt 27-6, while the Cardinals lost in overtime at home to UConn 23-20. They drop to #24 and #25 and the loser of their showdown next week—which will send one of them to the Orange Bowl—will fall out altogether.

Texas dropped out after losing to TCU 20-14. The 3-loss teams in our top 25 are the ones who have only lost to top 25 teams (Ball State, Louisiana Tech) or have a top 25 win (Oregon State, UCLA). Boise State is the only 2-loss team left out, and they'll probably replace Rutgers/Louisville next weekend if they beat Nevada.

This leaves the conference tally at SEC 6, Pac-12 4, MAC 3, WAC 3, Big Twelve 2, ACC 2, Big Ten 2, Big East 2, independents 1. The C-USA, Mountain West, and Sun Belt have none.

BCS Odds for Notre Dame, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Oregon, Kansas State, and FSU

Two weeks of football are left in the 2012 season, and after last weekend's carnage 7 teams still have a measureable chance of getting into the BCS championship game.

What are those odds? We looked at each team's remaining schedule and their current BCS ranking and computed rough odds for their ability to finish in the top two. For the game-winning odds we used our Strength power rating and its comparisons of offense and defensive strength, and we looked at all the relevant scenarios that could affect the team's placement. Note that there is still a lot of art rather than science in determining exactly what the pollsters will do, but we gave it our best shot.

Here is the current (11/17/2012) BCS top ten:

1. Notre Dame (11-0)
2. Alabama (10-1)
3. Georgia (10-1)
4. Florida (10-1)
5. Oregon (10-1)
6. Kansas State (10-1)
7. LSU (9-2)
8. Stanford (9-2)
9. Texas A&M (9-2)
10. Florida State (10-1)

And here is our take on the teams that have the best shot at finishing in the top two, in order:

Alabama	66%	The Crimson Tide have to do one thing: win out. If they beat Auburn and win the SEC title game, they're in. Beating Auburn is almost a foregone conclusion; we give the tide a 99% chance to beat the Tigers. The SEC championship game is a bit harder. We give them a 2/3 chance of beating Georgia in Atlanta. Dock them 1% for the chance to lose to Auburn and Alabama has a 66% chance to be in the BCS title game.
Notre Dame	55%	Notre Dame has the clearest path to the to BCS championship: Beat USC. If they fail that, they have perhaps the most convoluted path to getting back to #2. The game at USC is pretty close to a tossup by our measures; we give the Irish just over a 50% chance to win and finish #1 in the BCS standings. If they lose, they aren't quite out of it, as they would be another of the 1-loss teams and still strong in the computers. But since "backing in" to the title game is frowned upon it would make the pollsters loathe to keep them too close to the top. It's hard to say how far they'd fall—and that would be affected by the score of the USC loss—but they'd probably need losses by Florida, Oregon, and Kansas State, which adds up to under a 10% chance to happen, so that adds just under 5% to their odds, which finish at 55%
Georgia	25%	Georgia controls their own destiny, too, one of only three teams to do so. To get to the championship game the Bulldogs have to handle in-state rival Georgia Tech, then beat Alabama to win the SEC. Beat Georgia Tech is the easier part of the job, and our numbers give them almost exactly 75% winning odds against the Yellow Jackets. Against Alabama they're aided by partial home field advantage by playing in-state in Atlanta, but still have just a 1 in 3 shot to win that game. 75% x 1/3 = 25%, or a 1 in 4 chance that Georgia will be playing for the title.
Oregon	22%	Now it gets complicated, as we are past the teams that control their destiny, and since they need help from other teams the calculations get more difficult (and the outcomes less exact). Oregon is at #5 currently and has one game left against Oregon State—unless UCLA beats Stanford, in which case the Ducks would be back in the Pac-12 title game. Beating Oregon State on the road is about a 2/3 proposition. 50% of the time—the odds we give UCLA at home against the Cardinal—they'll play UCLA, and beat the Bruins 80% of the time. This gives them a 60% chance of emerging unscathed. Note that it would benefit Oregon to have the extra game, despite the fact that it gives them another chance to lose, they're going to need all the help they can get with the computers and pollsters. Winning out alone doesn't help if Notre Dame and Alabama win out. If the Irish lose they still need to pass Florida, and the best way is for the Gators to lose to FSU. If the Irish win, they need all 3 SEC teams to finish with 2 losses, which means FSU still has to win, Georgia Tech needs to beat Georgia, and Georgia has to upset Alabama. By far the more likely scenario is the Irish losing/FSU winning, which is about a 1 in 3 chance. Overall there's about a 36% chance that enough things go their way; x the 60% chance of winning out = roughly 22% chance of Oregon making it back to the title game, most likely against the SEC winner. Note that there's no guarantee Oregon will pass a 1-loss Irish team that narrowly lost to USC, or stay ahead of FSU if they beat Florida. That's why they should root for UCLA to beat Stanford.
Florida	18%	Though they're at #4 right now, Florida has a tough road ahead, and even if they do their best by beating Florida State, they won't pass the SEC winner if both win their final regular-season games. That makes a Notre Dame loss their best shot. The Gators play at Florida State, and it's going to be tough to get a win—about a 1 in 3 chance as we see it. That already cuts their odds down quite a bit. Their scenarios of hope basically require either 1) Notre Dame loses and the Gators face the SEC winner, or 2) Georgia Tech upsets Georgia and Georgia beats Alabama, leaving Florida to face Notre Dame. Scenario #1 has about a 50% chance of happening, but Florida would probably have to dominate FSU to make the pollsters want to have another all-SEC title game. Scenario #2 requires a Georgia loss (1 in 4) followed by a Georgia upset of Alabama. And this is after a required win over Florida State. It's rough for Florida that their best odds are for another all-SEC title game, which the pollsters might rebel against. But Florida is #2 in 5 of 6 computers, and they'll go to #1 if Notre Dame loses. That gives them a good chance as long as the pollsters aren't so sick of the SEC that they move someone else ahead.
Kansas State	10%	Kansas State fell from #1 to #6 after their loss to Baylor, and it's going to take some doing to get back in the top 2. But it's not impossible. First, of course, they have to beat Texas, which we see as a 2/3 chance (a lot of 2/3 chances in these game-odds, it seems). Then, they need to clear out all but one of the teams ahead of them. They'll either need Notre Dame, Oregon, and Florida to lose, hopefully putting the Wildcats in the championship game against the SEC winner. Or Georgia must lose to Georgia Tech, and upset Alabama, while two of the other three lose. That doesn't guarantee them the #2 spot, but it's close enough if you add in the slim possibility that all of the above end with 2 losses. Oregon losing another game is a 40% proposition; Notre Dame losing is about 50/50. Already down to a 20% chance—and 13.33% including their own game. They also need EITHER Florida to lose to FSU (67%) or Georgia to lose to Georgia Tech (25%). The odds of one of those happening is 75%, which we multiply by the 13.33% to get 10%. And that's as far as we're going to figure it.
Florida State	4%	#10 Florida State is in a terrible position with the computers, ranking 17th in the composite. They aren't poorly positioned in the polls, though, and a win over Florida would boost their standing quite a bit with most computers. That win alone would allow them to pass the 2-loss teams at #7, 8, and 9, which is good because the ACC title game isn't going to help them much at all. We're giving FSU a generous 2/3 chance to beat Florida in Tallahassee. Then the question is, who is their ACC opponent? It could be Miami, if the Hurricanes beat Duke and decide to play in the post-season. Otherwise UPDATE: Miami has banned itself from the post-season, so it will be Georgia Tech. Both are about 85% wins for the Seminoles, so overall FSU has about a 57% chance of finishing 12-1. Then they need help, and lots of it, to have a chance to pass Kansas State, Oregon, and either Notre Dame or the SEC winner. Florida would be out of the way, and either Georgia or Alabama will lose, too. So if Kansas State loses to Texas (1 in 3), AND Oregon loses a game (40%), AND Georgia Tech upsets Georgia AND Georgia upsets Alabama, FSU would be the only viable 1-loss team and hold a win over Florida! That could get them a date with Notre Dame. Otherwise, K-State, Oregon, and Notre Dame could lose, and FSU would have to hope to jump the Irish to face Alabama/Georgia. All of these scenarios are so inexact—and FSU has such a long way to go—that the 'Noles need every bit of help. Clemson beating South Carolina (55%) would help FSU with the computers, and it wouldn't hurt for Stanford to lose again even.

That all adds up to 200%, leaving no room for the real long shots such as LSU, Stanford, Texas A&M, and maybe even #11 Clemson, to have a crazy run to the top if the remaining weekends are both like last weekend or we have a repeat of 2007. Numbers are rounded off so there's still hope for those not mentioned, but not a lot.

I haven't calculated the exact odds for every matchup, but using the numbers above it's pretty easy to figure out the 5 most likely pairings, noting that an Alabama-Georgia pairing isn't possible:

1. Alabama vs. Notre Dame
2. Alabama vs. Oregon
3. Notre Dame vs. Georgia
4. Alabama vs. Florida
5. Alabama vs. Kansas State

2012 SportsRatings Top 25 - week 12: Should Alabama Really Be Ahead of Florida?

The SportsRatings Top 25 is our answer to the AP and coaches' polls. This subjective "poll" properly reflects head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

No Doubt Now: After being one of the few places to have Notre Dame #1 last week, we're sure to be in the mainstream when the new national polls are out. Notre Dame blanked Wake Forest 38-0 while the other significan undefeated teams lost, leaving the Irish as the only choice at #1. From there it gets tricky. Georgia, 45-14 winners over Georgia Southern, takes the #2 spot. Is there any chance that the Bulldogs are the 2nd best team in the nation? No, but Notre Dame isn't the best team, either. Both earned their spots by winning, however.

Georgia, though, doesn't have the 2nd best résumé in the country—that goes to #3 Florida, who beat Jacksonville State 23-0 Saturday. The Bulldogs are above the Gators due to head-to-head competition. Most of the pollsters—and the BCS standings—have Alabama above both Florida and Georgia, and we disagree. Sure, Alabama might very well be the best team in the nation, but they don't deserve to be ranked ahead of Florida. The Tide's only significant victim is LSU, and Florida beat them as well. The Gators also beat Texas A&M, the team that beat Alabama. And they have a solid win over South Carolina to boot.

But Alabama will play Georgia in the SEC title game, and if the Tide crush the Bulldogs—the one team to beat Florida—then there might be reason to rank the Tide higher. But if Florida wins out as well, they'll have a marquee win over Florida State. We don't see jumping Alabama ahead of the Gators unless the latter loses. The BCS sees things differently, and Alabama or Georgia will play Notre Dame for the title—unless Notre Dame loses to USC. Then we could have another all-SEC showdown, even another rematch if Georgia upsets the Tide. In that case, root for FSU, who would sneak in if they beat the Gators, despite their current low BCS ranking.

Alabama beat Western Carolina 48-0 Saturday during the SEC's cupcake weekend. We put Ohio State at #4, up from #7, one spot ahead of Alabama. The Buckeyes deserve credit for going undefeated so far, and have their first top 25 win now that Nebraska finally joins our list. The Buckeyes aren't a very solid top 20 team in reality, and needed overtime to beat Wisconsin 21-14. But they keep winning. Maybe Michigan will put the Buckeyes out of their misery next weekend, and spare us any ridiculous arguments that Ohio State could have been national champs without probation.

Florida State is #6, as we're seeing their 1-point loss as less and less of a liability, while #7 LSU struggled to beat Mississippi 41-35. FSU beat Maryland 41-14. We dropped Kansas State to #8, as their résumé matches Florida State's but with a 4-touchdown loss at Baylor (52-28) instead of a 1-point loss. Texas A&M moves up to #9; they beat one of the best FCS teams, Sam Houston State, 47-28. And #10 Clemson rolled to a 62-48 comeback win over N.C. State.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 12 2012 (thru 11/17/2012)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Résumé: Losses; important wins
1	1	Notre Dame	11-0	w@Oklahoma 30-13, Stanford 20-13ot
4	2	Georgia	10-1	L@SCar 35-7; w=Florida 17-9
5	3	Florida	10-1	L=Ga 17-9; wLSU 14-6, TexAM 20-17, SCar 44-11
7	4	Ohio State	11-0	wNebraska 63-38
6	5	Alabama	10-1	L TexAM 29-24; w@LSU 21-17
9	6	Florida State	10-1	L@NCState 17-16; wClemson 49-37
8	7	LSU	9-2	L@Fla 14-6, Bama 21-17; wSCar 23-21, @TexAM 24-19
2	8	Kansas State	10-1	L@Baylor 52-24; w@Oklahoma 24-19
10	9	Texas A&M	9-2	L FLA 20-17, LSU 24-19; w@Bama 29-24, @LTech 59-57
12	10	Clemson	10-1	L@FSU 49-37; wBallSt 52-27
11	11	Oklahoma	8-2	L ND 30-13, KSt 24-19; w=Tex 63-21
3	12	Oregon	10-1	L Stanford 17-14ot
13	13	South Carolina	9-2	L@LSU 23-21, @FLA 44-11; wGeorgia 35-7
14	14	Louisville	9-1	L@Syr 45-26; wCincy 34-31ot
16	15	Stanford	9-2	L@Wash 17-13, @ND 20-13ot; w@Ore 17-14ot, OreSt 27-23
17	16	Kent State	10-1	L@Kentucky 47-14; w@Rutgers 35-23, BallSt 45-43
18	17	Rutgers	9-1	L KentSt 35-23; w@Cincy 10-3
19	18	Oregon State	8-2	L@Wash 20-17, @Stan 27-23; wUCLA 27-20
20	19	N. Illinois	10-1	L=Iowa 18-17; w@BallSt 35-23, Toledo 31-24
24	20	UCLA	9-2	L@Cal 43-17, OreSt 27-20; wNeb 36-30
--	21	Utah State	9-2	L@Wisc 16-14, @BYU 6-3; wLaTech 48-41ot
15	22	Louisiana Tech	9-2	L TexAM 59-57, UtahSt 48-41ot
23	23	Texas	8-2	L WVa 48-45, =OK 63-21
--	24	Nebraska	9-2	L@UCLA 36-30, @OhioSt 63-38
25	25	Ball State	8-3	L@KentSt 45-43, NIU 35-23, @Clem 52-27; w@Toledo 34-27
		out:
21	--	Toledo	8-3	L@Ariz 24-17ot, BallSt 34-27, @NIU 31-24; wCincy 29-23
22	--	Cincinnati	7-3	L@Toledo 29-23, @Lou 34-31ot, Rutgers 10-3

Oklahoma can no longer claim they have lost only to undefeated teams, and they struggled to beat West Virginia 50-49; the Sooners hold at #11.

Pac-12 has 4 teams from #12 to #20: Oregon drops all the way from #3 to #12, as they have no solid wins. They have played some of the best football around and lost in overtime (17-14), so a few good wins could see them back in the top 5. They won't get the Pac-12 title shot in all likelihood, as #15 Stanford will be the North representative if they can beat #20 UCLA next week. Win that, and they will play UCLA again. Don'tcha love conference title games? The Bruins handled USC 38-28 and move up to #20, while #18 Oregon State crushed Cal 62-14.

South Carolina holds at #13 after beating Wofford 24-7—note how poorly these SEC teams played against the FCS competition. It's hard to imagine teams motivated this late in the year when facing a lower-division opponent. The only advantage I see is that teams can heal injuries in this "week off," before the final push. It also makes the beginning of the year more interesting, as the SEC is playing real games while the rest of the country is taking on the FCS. Idle Louisville holds at #14.

Weekly MAC update: Kent State beat Bowling Green, 31-24 and rose to #16; #19 Northern Illinois topped Toledo, knocking the Rockets out of the top 25. Ball State beat Ohio and remained #25 as their only top 25 win (Toledo) evaporates.

Rutgers beat Cincinnati 10-3, knocking the Bearcats out of the rankings and moving the Knights up to #17. Utah State took a huge lead but needed overtime to beat Louisiana Tech 48-41. It was very much the same as Texas A&M's win over the Bulldogs, as in both cases the Aggies took a huge lead (27-0, and 27-3) only to see Louisiana Tech roar back and turn the game into a shootout. Utah State is back in the rankings at #21 while the Bulldogs fall from #15 to #22. Idle Texas held at #23.

Next Weekend:

• The four ranked Pac-12 teams square off: #12 Oregon travels to #18 Oregon State, and #15 Stanford faces #20 UCLA.
• Florida visits Florida State. One of these teams is back in the BCS title picture if Notre Dame loses to USC.
• South Carolina visits Clemson in another ACC/SEC matchup. Neither team has title aspirations but a Clemson win bolster's Florida State's chances in the event of a Notre Dame loss.

2012 Final BCS Standings Projection—post-Week 11: Oregon vs. Notre Dame?

This is the Week 10 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks* to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change. *With the exception that currently undefeated, bowl-eligible teams are automatically projected to win out.

SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 11 (Nov. 10) results included

Previous Projection Finish	Projected 12/02/12 Finish	Team	Projected 12/02/12 Record	Current Record	Current BCS Rank	Win Out Rank	Projected BCS Bowl
2	1	Oregon	13-0	10-0	2	1	BCS Title
3	2	Notre Dame	12-0	10-0	3	2	BCS Title
4	3	Kansas St	12-0	10-0	1	3	Fiesta
1	4	Alabama	12-1	9-1	4	4	Sugar
5	5	Florida St	12-1	9-1	10	5	Orange
6	6	Florida	10-2	9-1	6	5	Fiesta
8	7	LSU	10-2	8-2	7	7
18	8	Texas A&M	10-2	8-2	8	8
11	9	Georgia	11-2	9-1	5	4
10	10	Clemson	11-1	9-1	11	10	Sugar
9	11	Oklahoma	10-2	7-2	12	11
12	12	Stanford	9-3	8-2	13	5	Rose
18	13	South Carolina	9-3	8-2	9	9
14	14	Wisconsin	10-3	7-3	--	14	Rose
13	15	Nebraska	10-3	8-2	14	7
15	16	Oregon St	9-3	7-2	16	7
17	17	Michigan	9-3	7-3	21	17
19	18	Louisiana Tech	11-1	9-1	20	18
20	19	Southern Cal	8-5	7-3	18	7
21	20	Texas	9-3	8-2	15	8
--	21	Rutgers	11-1	8-1	22	21	Orange
23	22	Oklahoma St	8-4	6-3	24	18
22	23	Boise St	10-2	8-2	--	23
24	24	UCLA	8-4	8-2	17	7
--	25	Washington	8-4	6-4	25	25

Despite Kansas State's presence at the top of the current BCS standings, it's pretty certain they won't finish there if Oregon wins out—and there's a chance they don't even hold onto #2.

First, the #1 spot. Oregon is #1 in both polls but lags among the computers, ranking 4th in the composite. But after they finish the season with Stanford, Oregon State, and USC/UCLA, their computer ranking should be #2 only to Notre Dame, who is the current composite #1. That will easily make the Ducks the #1 BCS teams (this is assuming no upsets of course).

Then the battle is for #2. Right now Kansas State has a decent lead over Notre Dame, but Oregon's rise in the computers could knock the Wildcats to #3 in many of the computers. And as the season finishes, expect the gap in the polls between #3 Notre Dame and #2 Kansas State to narrow. If it narrows enough, and the Irish hold the computer advantage, they could well sneak past the Wildcats into the #2 spot. It could be as close as Alabama/Oklahoma State last year.

While the #1 spot is pretty certainly Oregon's if they win out, the #2 spot comes down to style points. If Notre Dame struggles at all against Wake Forest, then barely beats USC, the Irish will remain #3 in the polls without gaining any ground and finish #3 in the BCS. If they beat Wake Forest easily and beat the Trojans by around the same margin as Oregon—11 points—look for Notre Dame to gain on K-State. For K-State's part, they can't let Baylor stay close, and have to make a statement against Texas.

In the end, the human polls are more important than the computers, so both teams have to make their case to be in the national championship game, and K-State has an advantage due to "poll inertia" as they currently lead. But in the end we have the Irish at #2 by a very slim margin, which will make our overall BCS bowl projections different than everyone else has right now, with Oregon and Notre Dame in the BCS title game.

Therefore, Kansas State lands in the Fiesta Bowl, with their opponent one of the projected 4 SEC teams with 2 losses: Florida, LSU, Texas A&M, or Georgia. The Bulldogs will probably rank the lowest coming off an SEC title game loss to Alabama, and Florida beat LSU who beat Texas A&M. Also the Gators can seal the deal by beating Florida State, so it makes sense to project the Gators into the Fiesta Bowl. But if FSU beats Florida the Aggies might be a strong choice due to geography.

Alabama would be in the Sugar Bowl, and since most of the rest of the eligible at-large teams are from the SEC it comes down to Clemson or Oklahoma as the opponent. Clemson has been doing well lately and would have only 1 loss, but the bowl might choose Oklahoma anyway. We'll give it to Clemson since they now project in front of the Sooners.

Florida State makes the Orange Bowl as always, whether they beat Florida or not, and now that Louisville lost we revert to our previous projection of Rutgers winning the Big East. Stanford ends up in the Rose Bowl against projected Big Ten winner Wisconsin.

The only possible BCS buster is Louisiana Tech, who may finish ahead of Rutgers but has to make the top 16. That appears doubtful as only half the computers have them in the top 25 at this point.

2012 SportsRatings Top 25 - week 11: Notre Dame rises to the top

The SportsRatings Top 25 is our answer to the AP and coaches' polls. This subjective "poll" properly reflects head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

The Debate Begins: With #1 Alabama's 29-24 loss to Texas A&M—and Louisville's loss to Syracuse—four teams are left undefeated.  Only three are legitimate considerations. Neither Oregon or Ohio State has a top 25 win but the Ducks have been a dominant team while the Buckeyes have lacked punch all year.

But it's Notre Dame who takes our top spot. Arguably the weakest team of the top three, they nevertheless have the best résumé with wins over Oklahoma and Stanford, and at this point in the year résumé is the top consideration. They defeated Oklahoma just as soundly as #2 Kansas State. But teams avoided upset this weekend, the Irish topping Boston College 21-6 and the Wildcats dispatching TCU 23-10. That leaves Oregon—possibly the best team of the three—at #3; they ran away from Cal 59-17 late Saturday.

The next three spots are occupied by the SEC. #4 Georgia holds a win over #5 Florida and blanked Auburn 38-0 Saturday. #5 Florida struggled against Louisiana-Lafayette—not a bad team by any means—winning just 27-20 on late TDs, but they have an incredible slate of victories that was made even better by Texas A&M's win. Alabama falls to #6, remaining ahead of 10-0 Ohio State who was idle this weekend. The Buckeyes are both weak in true strength and lacking in prominent wins.

Jumping from #10 to #8, LSU knocked former #18 Mississippi State out of the top 25 (37-17) and also holds a win over new #10 Texas A&M, who gains 4 spots for their upset of Alabama. In between, Florida State holds at #9 after edging Virginia Tech 28-22 on Thursday.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 11 2012 (thru 11/10/2012)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Résumé: Losses/important wins
2	1	Notre Dame	10-0	w@Oklahoma 30-13, Stanford 20-13ot
3	2	Kansas State	10-0	w@Oklahoma 24-19
4	3	Oregon	10-0
5	4	Georgia	9-1	L@SCar 35-7; w=Florida 17-9
6	5	Florida	9-1	L=Ga 17-9; wLSU 14-6, TexAM 20-17, SCar 44-11
1	6	Alabama	9-1	L TexAM 29-24; w@LSU 21-17, MissSt 38-7
7	7	Ohio State	10-0
10	8	LSU	8-2	L@Fla 14-6, Bama 21-17; wSCar 23-21, @TexAM 24-19, MissSt 37-17
9	9	Florida State	9-1	L@NCState 17-16; wClemson 49-37
14	10	Texas A&M	8-2	L FLA 20-17, LSU 24-19; w@Bama 29-24, @LTech 59-57, @MissSt 38-13
11	11	Oklahoma	7-2	L ND 30-13, KSt 24-19; w=Tex 63-21
12	12	Clemson	9-1	L@FSU 49-37; wBallSt 52-27
17	13	South Carolina	8-2	L@LSU 23-21, @FLA 44-11; wGeorgia 35-7
8	14	Louisville	9-1	L@Syr 45-26; wCincy 34-31ot
15	15	Louisiana Tech	9-1	L TexAM 59-57
19	16	Stanford	8-2	L@Wash 17-13, @ND 20-13ot; wOreSt 27-23
20	17	Kent State	9-1	L@Kentucky 47-14; w@Rutgers 35-23, BallSt 45-43
21	18	Rutgers	8-1	L KentSt 35-23
13	19	Oregon State	7-2	L@Wash 20-17, @Stan 27-23; wUCLA 27-20
24	20	N. Illinois	9-1	L=Iowa 18-17; w@BallSt 35-23
16	21	Toledo	8-2	L@Ariz 24-17ot, BallSt 34-27; wCincy 29-23
22	22	Cincinnati	7-2	L@Toledo 29-23, @Lou 34-31ot
23	23	Texas	8-2	L WVa 48-45, =OK 63-21
--	24	UCLA	8-2	L@Cal 43-17, OreSt 27-20
--	25	Ball State	7-3	L@KentSt 45-43, NIU 35-23, @Clem 52-27; w@Toledo 34-27
		out:
18	--	Mississippi State	7-3	L@Bama 38-7, TexAM 38-13, @LSU 37-17
25	--	Ohio	8-2	L@MiamiOH 23-20, BowlGreen 26-14

Oklahoma 's two losses are now to the #1 and #2 teams, so in theory they might be the 3rd best team in the country. For now we have them just outside the top 10; they beat Baylor just 42-34 so being ranked #3 is going to have to wait. Clemson crushed Maryland 45-10 to hold at #12. South Carolina beat Arkansas 38-20 and their two losses to top 10 teams plus a top ten win is better than #14 Louisville's loss to an unranked team (Syracuse, 45-26) and overtime win against Cincy. The Cardinals fell 6 spots with their first loss.

Louisiana Tech didn't lose, but their defense took a beating against lowly Texas State. The Bulldogs pulled out a 62-55 win and hold at #15. It doesn't seem to matter much who they play, as they almost came back to beat Texas A&M weeks ago, losing 59-57. Yes, they were a field goal away from beating the team that just beat Alabama.

Stanford topped Oregon State 27-23 and jumps to #16 while the Beavers fall from #13 to #19. At #17, Kent State has two top 25 wins to go with their crippling loss to Kentucky; the Flashes beat Miami of Ohio 48-32 to go to 9-1. One of their victims, Rutgers, is just behind at #18 after topping Army 28-7.

Northern Illinois was idle but gained a top 25 win as Ball State enters the top 25 at #25; with just one loss, we move the Huskies up to #20. At 7-3, Ball State has losses to three top 25 teams and now a 34-27 win over Toledo, who falls from #16 to #21, just ahead of former victim Cincinnati who beat Temple 34-10 Saturday. Texas holds at #23 after beating Iowa State soundly, 33-7.

Mississippi State lost its third consecutive game Saturday. All three losses were to top 10 foes, but each was a blowout, and the Bulldogs have no impressive wins to offset that. They exit the top 25 along with Ohio who lost to Bowling Green 26-14 on Wednesday. Filling the gap is UCLA, who has a close loss to Oregon State and a win over another 2-loss team, Nebraska. They also have a blowout loss to 3-8 California, so we think they're vastly overrated in the AP and coaches poll. Both those polls have them below Nebraska, too, which is just wrong.

Next Weekend: #3 Oregon has one of its toughest challenges of the season in #16 Stanford. #20 Northern Illinois and #21 Toledo face off in the MAC, while in the Big East #18 Rutgers takes on #22 Cincinnati.

2012 Final BCS Standings Projection—post-Week 10: Oregon looks strong at #2

This is the Week 10 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks* to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change. *With the exception that currently undefeated, bowl-eligible teams are automatically projected to win out.

SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 10 (Nov. 3) results included

Previous Projection Finish	Projected 12/02/12 Finish	Team	Projected 12/02/12 Record	Current Record	Current BCS Rank	Win Out Rank	Projected BCS Bowl
1	1	Alabama	13-0	9-0	1	1	BCS Title
2	2	Oregon	13-0	9-0	3	2	BCS Title
3	3	Notre Dame	12-0	9-0	4	3	Fiesta
4	4	Kansas St	12-0	9-0	2	4	Fiesta
5	5	Florida St	12-1	8-1	10	5	Orange
6	6	Florida	10-2	8-1	6	5	Sugar
7	7	Louisville	12-0	9-0	9	7	Orange
10	8	LSU	10-2	7-2	7	8
8	9	Oklahoma	10-2	6-2	12	9	Sugar
9	10	Clemson	11-1	8-1	13	10
11	11	Georgia	11-2	8-1	5	4
12	12	Stanford	9-3	7-2	14	5	Rose
13	13	Nebraska	10-3	7-2	16	7
14	14	Wisconsin	10-3	6-3	--	14	Rose
17	15	Oregon St	9-3	7-1	11	4
18	16	Texas A&M	9-3	7-2	15	7
15	17	Michigan	9-3	6-3	--	17
19	18	South Carolina	9-3	7-2	8	9
20	19	Louisiana Tech	11-1	8-1	20	19
21	20	Southern Cal	8-5	6-3	19	6
22	21	Texas	9-3	7-2	17	8
16	22	Boise St	10-2	7-2	--	22
23	23	Oklahoma St	8-4	5-3	--	20
24	24	UCLA	8-4	7-2	18	5
--	25	Ohio U.	12-1	8-1	--	25

Alabama and Notre Dame escaped with wins last week and Oregon stayed ahead of USC, while Kansas State and Louisville had an easier time. There was no change in our projected top 7 teams. Oregon became an even more solid #2 as their year-end computer ranking could be the equal of Alabama's if not better. Notre Dame's computer composite will remain strong but their narrow win over Pitt further underscores how much ground they'd have to gain up in the polls. And Kansas State's computer ranking will ease a bit as other teams play tougher games, and they have little chance of passing the top two in the human polls.

The Florida/FSU winner should finish #5, and either way Florida goes to the Sugar Bowl. Their opponent should be either Oklahoma or Clemson, depending on style points and who that bowl wants. The Big Ten is still up in the air but Wisconsin and Nebraska have the inside track to the title game.

After Boise State's loss the chance of a BCS buster is almost nil. Louisiana Tech won't gain much at all from their current #20 and at least one Big Ten and Big East team should be ahead of them. Ohio jumps into the projection but even winning out doesn't get them near the top 16.

2012 SportsRatings Top 25 - week 10: Alabama, Notre Dame escape; MAC has 4 ranked teams

The SportsRatings Top 25 is our answer to the AP and coaches' polls. This subjective "poll" properly reflects head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

The Great Escape: #1 Alabama and #2 Notre Dame survived major scares over the weekend but in the end, the "W" is all that counts. Especially for Alabama, who pulled off their 2nd top 25 victory in a very tough place to get a win. The Tide rallied to beat LSU 21-17 and despite the close call there's no reason to consider anyone else for the top spot.

#2 Notre Dame had their typical post-"prove it" letdown (see 1993, 2002). After beating Oklahoma and convincing everyone they were really for real they nearly blew it at home to Pitt, needing a shady pass interference call and a missed Pitt field goal (on which the Irish should have been flagged...) to stay alive, but they did and escaped with a 29-26 triple overtime win.

The other important undefeated teams had less trouble; #3 Kansas State dispatched Oklahoma State 44-30 and #4 Oregon outraced USC 62-51, with Kenjon Barner rushing for an astonishing 321 yards. Both teams lag a bit on résumé but not performance.

Georgia topped Mississippi 37-10 and Florida survived a Missouri scare 14-7. The SEC West teams held at #5 and #6, ahead of undefeated Ohio State, who beat Illinois 52-22, and undefeated Louisville who beat Temple 45-17. Louisville moves up a spot, as does #9 Florida State who was idle. The Seminoles are ridiculously ahead of Florida in both the Coaches and Harris polls, but the teams face each other late in the season to settle that. For now, the Gators clearly should be ranked in front as they are in the AP.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week ten 2012 (thru 11/03/2012)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Résumé: Losses/important wins
1	1	Alabama	9-0	wMissSt 38-7, @LSU 21-17
2	2	Notre Dame	9-0	w@OK 30-13, Stanford 20-13ot
3	3	Kansas State	9-0	w@OK 24-19, TxTech 55-24
4	4	Oregon	9-0	w@USC 62-51
5	5	Georgia	8-1	L@SCar 35-7; w=Florida 17-9
6	6	Florida	8-1	L=Ga 17-9; wLSU 14-6, TexAM 20-17, SCar 44-11
7	7	Ohio State	10-0
9	8	Louisville	9-0	wCincy 34-31ot
10	9	Florida State	8-1	L@NCState 17-16; wClemson 49-37
8	10	LSU	7-2	L@Fla 14-6, Bama 21-17; wSCar 23-21, @TexAM 24-19
11	11	Oklahoma	6-2	L ND 30-13, KSt 24-19; w=Tex 63-21, @TxTech 41-20
12	12	Clemson	8-1	L@FSU 49-37
13	13	Oregon State	7-1	L@Wash 20-17
15	14	Texas A&M	7-2	L FLA 20-17, LSU 24-19; w@LaTech 59-57, @MissSt 38-13
16	15	Louisiana Tech	8-1	L TexAM 59-57
17	16	Toledo	8-1	L@Ariz 24-17ot; wCincy 29-23
18	17	South Carolina	7-2	L@LSU 23-21, @FLA 44-11; wGeorgia 35-7
14	18	Mississippi State	7-2	L@Alabama 38-7, TexAM 38-13
19	19	Stanford	7-2	L@Wash 17-13, @ND 20-13ot; wUSC 21-14
21	20	Kent State	8-1	L@Kentucky 47-14; w@Rutgers 35-23
22	21	Rutgers	7-1	L KentSt 35-23
23	22	Cincinnati	6-2	L@Toledo 29-23, @Lou 34-31ot
--	23	Texas	7-2	L WVa 48-45, =OK 63-21; w@TxTech 31-22
--	24	N. Illinois	9-1	L=Iowa 18-17
--	25	Ohio	8-1	L@MiamiOH 23-20
		out:
20	--	Texas Tech	6-3	L OK 41-20, @KState 55-24, Texas 31-22
24	--	USC	6-3	L@Ariz 39-36, @Stan 21-14, @Ore 62-51
25	--	Boise State	7-2	L@MichSt 17-13, SDSU 21-19

LSU rounds out the top ten; they have two losses to top ten teams and two narrow wins over top 25 teams. #11 Oklahoma has lost only to two undefeated teams, and they handled Iowa State 35-20 Saturday. Clemson and Oregon State held at 12 and 13 by beating Duke 56-20 and Arizona State 36-36, respectively.

Texas A&M beat on Mississippi State almost as bad as Alabama did, winning 38-13 on the road. The Bulldogs only fell to #18, giving them the benefit of the doubt as both losses are to good teams. They drop right below yet another SEC team, South Carolina, who also has two top 25 losses but also a win over Georgia; they were idle Saturday. Louisiana Tech, a former Aggie victim, beat UTSA 51-27 and moved up to #15 at 8-1. Stanford holds at #19 right below Mississippi State after blanking Colorado 48-0.

MAC Attack: The Mid-American conference fills 4 out of the final 10 slots in our rankings. At #16 Toledo is the highest ranked; they have only an overtime loss at Arizona and hold a win over Cincinnati, who moves to #22 after beating Syracuse 35-24 Saturday. Kent State also holds a win over a ranked Big East opponent, as they are the only team to beat #21 Rutgers. The Flashes outlasted Akron 35-24 this weekend and moves up a spot to #20. And moving in at #24 and #25 are 9-1 Northern Illinois (only loss a 1-point defeat to Iowa) and 8-1 Ohio (fell to Miami of Ohio by a field goal). The Huskies obliterated UMass 63-0 while the Bobcats crushed Eastern Michigan 45-14 Thursday night.

Also joining, or rather re-joining, the top 25 is Texas, who beat Texas Tech 31-22. The Red Raiders' third loss—all to top 25 teams, though—dropped them out along with USC. Boise State was upset by San Diego State and falls out, too, and the Broncos' hope of a BCS automatic bid dies.

Next Weekend: Alabama faces another tough challenge right after LSU as they host #14 Texas A&M. Like last year the Aggies are one of the top teams in the nation but again have had bad luck in close games. LSU doesn't get a breather either as they host #18 Mississippi State. And in the Pac-12 #13 Oregon State takes on #19 Stanford.

2012 Final BCS Standings Projection—post-Week 9: USC the spoiler now

This is the Week 9 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks* to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.

We've switched gears a little bit on our project, since by this point all anyone really cares about is what happens if everyone goes undefeated. So since both USC and Oklahoma lost last weekend and for all intents and purposes are out of the title picture, we'll focus on the remaining 5 undefeated teams who are eligible for post-season play.

SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 9 (Oct. 27) results included

Previous Projection Finish	Projected 12/02/12 Finish	Team	Projected 12/02/12 Record	Current Record	Current BCS Rank	Win Out Rank	Projected BCS Bowl
--	1	Alabama	13-0	8-0	1	1	BCS Title
--	2	Oregon	13-0	8-0	4	2	BCS Title
--	3	Notre Dame	12-0	8-0	3	3	Fiesta
--	4	Kansas St	12-0	8-0	2	4	Fiesta
--	5	Florida St	12-1	8-1	9	5	Orange
--	6	Florida	10-2	7-1	7	5	Sugar
--	7	Louisville	12-0	8-0	10	7	Orange
--	8	Oklahoma	10-2	5-2	12	8	Sugar
--	9	Clemson	11-1	7-1	13	9
--	10	LSU	10-2	7-1	5	4
--	11	Georgia	11-2	7-1	6	4
--	12	Stanford	9-3	6-2	14	5	Rose
--	13	Nebraska	10-3	6-2	20	7
--	14	Wisconsin	10-3	6-3	--	14	Rose
--	15	Michigan	9-3	5-3	--	15
--	16	Boise St	11-1	7-1	19	16
--	17	Oregon St	9-3	6-1	11	4
--	18	Texas A&M	9-3	6-2	16	7
--	19	South Carolina	9-3	7-2	8	8
--	20	Louisiana Tech	11-1	7-1	25	20
--	21	Southern Cal	8-5	6-2	17	3
--	22	Texas	9-3	6-2	23	8
--	23	Oklahoma St	8-4	5-2	24	7
--	24	UCLA	8-4	6-2	--	5
--	25	Michigan St	7-5	5-4	--	22

And what we get is slightly different than last week's test of the four main undefeated teams. Last week we said that Notre Dame would join Alabama in the top two. But even though the Irish followed through and beat the Sooners, they now come out #3 to Oregon in our simulation. The reason? USC's loss to Arizona weakened on of Notre Dame's best future wins.

Oregon probably plays USC twice, so the Trojans' loss didn't do the Ducks any favors either, but they're #2 in the human polls where that doesn't have much of an effect. And the Ducks beat Arizona, whose value with the computers went up. Add in Michigan's loss—which hurts Notre Dame with the computers—and the Irish look to have a tougher time overcoming Oregon's human poll status.

Kansas State appears to be a distant #4 in the current win-out scenario, while Louisville would need everyone to lose, and then several 1-loss teams to lose, to be in the discussion.

Among the current 1-loss teams, Florida State and Florida are in the best position, and the winner of that game has hope if the current undefeated teams fall. If Alabama and Oregon make the BCS championship game and Kansas State and Notre Dame fill out the Fiesta Bowl, Florida would be the Sugar Bowl replacement team and FSU would go to the Orange Bowl as the ACC winner. The Gators would take on Oklahoma—or possibly Clemson, if the Tigers actually beat South Carolina—and the Seminoles would face Louisville.

The Rose Bowl is looking like the weakest BCS bowl by far, with Stanford facing the Big Ten title winner between Wisconsin and Nebraska. With Boise State just outside the BCS equation and looking in, if the eligible Big Ten teams fall further—which they would if Ohio State wins out—then the Broncos can slip in as a required pick. And Louisville might only need to lose one game to drop below the Broncos, too; the Big East has been weak for years but in the last 2 weeks front-runners Cincinnati and Rutgers suffered losses to MAC teams. So while the Big Ten is surprisingly Boise's best bet for automatic qualification, it's not their only hope.

The takeaway is that USC is now the big spoiler, taking that role over from Notre Dame who is now one of the main players. The Trojans face Oregon this weekend and possibly again in the Pac-12 title game, and they take on the Irish in their last game. Alabama doesn't need any help but Kansas State should now be USC's biggest fan.

Speaking of Alabama/Oregon/USC, this Saturday of course has two of the year's most anticipated games, at least from a pre-season vantage point. Back then LSU and USC were in the top 3 in the polls and their matches with Alabama and Oregon respectively were circled on many calendars. The games have diminished in some eyes, mainly because of LSU's loss to Florida and USC's 2 losses, but they still probably represent Alabama and Oregon's biggest hurdles left to going undefeated and meeting in the BCS final.