This is the Week 9 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks* to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.
We've switched gears a little bit on our project, since by this point all anyone really cares about is what happens if everyone goes undefeated. So since both USC and Oklahoma lost last weekend and for all intents and purposes are out of the title picture, we'll focus on the remaining 5 undefeated teams who are eligible for post-season play.
SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 9 (Oct. 27) results included
Previous Projection Finish |
Projected 12/02/12 Finish |
Team | Projected 12/02/12 Record |
Current Record |
Current BCS Rank |
Win Out Rank |
Projected BCS Bowl |
-- | 1 | Alabama | 13-0 | 8-0 | 1 | 1 | BCS Title |
-- | 2 | Oregon | 13-0 | 8-0 | 4 | 2 | BCS Title |
-- | 3 | Notre Dame | 12-0 | 8-0 | 3 | 3 | Fiesta |
-- | 4 | Kansas St | 12-0 | 8-0 | 2 | 4 | Fiesta |
-- | 5 | Florida St | 12-1 | 8-1 | 9 | 5 | Orange |
-- | 6 | Florida | 10-2 | 7-1 | 7 | 5 | Sugar |
-- | 7 | Louisville | 12-0 | 8-0 | 10 | 7 | Orange |
-- | 8 | Oklahoma | 10-2 | 5-2 | 12 | 8 | Sugar |
-- | 9 | Clemson | 11-1 | 7-1 | 13 | 9 | |
-- | 10 | LSU | 10-2 | 7-1 | 5 | 4 | |
-- | 11 | Georgia | 11-2 | 7-1 | 6 | 4 | |
-- | 12 | Stanford | 9-3 | 6-2 | 14 | 5 | Rose |
-- | 13 | Nebraska | 10-3 | 6-2 | 20 | 7 | |
-- | 14 | Wisconsin | 10-3 | 6-3 | -- | 14 | Rose |
-- | 15 | Michigan | 9-3 | 5-3 | -- | 15 | |
-- | 16 | Boise St | 11-1 | 7-1 | 19 | 16 | |
-- | 17 | Oregon St | 9-3 | 6-1 | 11 | 4 | |
-- | 18 | Texas A&M | 9-3 | 6-2 | 16 | 7 | |
-- | 19 | South Carolina | 9-3 | 7-2 | 8 | 8 | |
-- | 20 | Louisiana Tech | 11-1 | 7-1 | 25 | 20 | |
-- | 21 | Southern Cal | 8-5 | 6-2 | 17 | 3 | |
-- | 22 | Texas | 9-3 | 6-2 | 23 | 8 | |
-- | 23 | Oklahoma St | 8-4 | 5-2 | 24 | 7 | |
-- | 24 | UCLA | 8-4 | 6-2 | -- | 5 | |
-- | 25 | Michigan St | 7-5 | 5-4 | -- | 22 |
And what we get is slightly different than last week's test of the four main undefeated teams. Last week we said that Notre Dame would join Alabama in the top two. But even though the Irish followed through and beat the Sooners, they now come out #3 to Oregon in our simulation. The reason? USC's loss to Arizona weakened on of Notre Dame's best future wins.
Oregon probably plays USC twice, so the Trojans' loss didn't do the Ducks any favors either, but they're #2 in the human polls where that doesn't have much of an effect. And the Ducks beat Arizona, whose value with the computers went up. Add in Michigan's loss—which hurts Notre Dame with the computers—and the Irish look to have a tougher time overcoming Oregon's human poll status.
Kansas State appears to be a distant #4 in the current win-out scenario, while Louisville would need everyone to lose, and then several 1-loss teams to lose, to be in the discussion.Among the current 1-loss teams, Florida State and Florida are in the best position, and the winner of that game has hope if the current undefeated teams fall. If Alabama and Oregon make the BCS championship game and Kansas State and Notre Dame fill out the Fiesta Bowl, Florida would be the Sugar Bowl replacement team and FSU would go to the Orange Bowl as the ACC winner. The Gators would take on Oklahoma—or possibly Clemson, if the Tigers actually beat South Carolina—and the Seminoles would face Louisville.
The Rose Bowl is looking like the weakest BCS bowl by far, with Stanford facing the Big Ten title winner between Wisconsin and Nebraska. With Boise State just outside the BCS equation and looking in, if the eligible Big Ten teams fall further—which they would if Ohio State wins out—then the Broncos can slip in as a required pick. And Louisville might only need to lose one game to drop below the Broncos, too; the Big East has been weak for years but in the last 2 weeks front-runners Cincinnati and Rutgers suffered losses to MAC teams. So while the Big Ten is surprisingly Boise's best bet for automatic qualification, it's not their only hope.
The takeaway is that USC is now the big spoiler, taking that role over from Notre Dame who is now one of the main players. The Trojans face Oregon this weekend and possibly again in the Pac-12 title game, and they take on the Irish in their last game. Alabama doesn't need any help but Kansas State should now be USC's biggest fan.
Speaking of Alabama/Oregon/USC, this Saturday of course has two of the year's most anticipated games, at least from a pre-season vantage point. Back then LSU and USC were in the top 3 in the polls and their matches with Alabama and Oregon respectively were circled on many calendars. The games have diminished in some eyes, mainly because of LSU's loss to Florida and USC's 2 losses, but they still probably represent Alabama and Oregon's biggest hurdles left to going undefeated and meeting in the BCS final.
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