This is the Week 10 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks* to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change. *With the exception that currently undefeated, bowl-eligible teams are automatically projected to win out.
SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 11 (Nov. 10) results included
| Previous Projection Finish |
Projected 12/02/12 Finish |
Team | Projected 12/02/12 Record |
Current Record |
Current BCS Rank |
Win Out Rank |
Projected BCS Bowl |
| 2 | 1 | Oregon | 13-0 | 10-0 | 2 | 1 | BCS Title |
| 3 | 2 | Notre Dame | 12-0 | 10-0 | 3 | 2 | BCS Title |
| 4 | 3 | Kansas St | 12-0 | 10-0 | 1 | 3 | Fiesta |
| 1 | 4 | Alabama | 12-1 | 9-1 | 4 | 4 | Sugar |
| 5 | 5 | Florida St | 12-1 | 9-1 | 10 | 5 | Orange |
| 6 | 6 | Florida | 10-2 | 9-1 | 6 | 5 | Fiesta |
| 8 | 7 | LSU | 10-2 | 8-2 | 7 | 7 | |
| 18 | 8 | Texas A&M | 10-2 | 8-2 | 8 | 8 | |
| 11 | 9 | Georgia | 11-2 | 9-1 | 5 | 4 | |
| 10 | 10 | Clemson | 11-1 | 9-1 | 11 | 10 | Sugar |
| 9 | 11 | Oklahoma | 10-2 | 7-2 | 12 | 11 | |
| 12 | 12 | Stanford | 9-3 | 8-2 | 13 | 5 | Rose |
| 18 | 13 | South Carolina | 9-3 | 8-2 | 9 | 9 | |
| 14 | 14 | Wisconsin | 10-3 | 7-3 | -- | 14 | Rose |
| 13 | 15 | Nebraska | 10-3 | 8-2 | 14 | 7 | |
| 15 | 16 | Oregon St | 9-3 | 7-2 | 16 | 7 | |
| 17 | 17 | Michigan | 9-3 | 7-3 | 21 | 17 | |
| 19 | 18 | Louisiana Tech | 11-1 | 9-1 | 20 | 18 | |
| 20 | 19 | Southern Cal | 8-5 | 7-3 | 18 | 7 | |
| 21 | 20 | Texas | 9-3 | 8-2 | 15 | 8 | |
| -- | 21 | Rutgers | 11-1 | 8-1 | 22 | 21 | Orange |
| 23 | 22 | Oklahoma St | 8-4 | 6-3 | 24 | 18 | |
| 22 | 23 | Boise St | 10-2 | 8-2 | -- | 23 | |
| 24 | 24 | UCLA | 8-4 | 8-2 | 17 | 7 | |
| -- | 25 | Washington | 8-4 | 6-4 | 25 | 25 |
Despite Kansas State's presence at the top of the current BCS standings, it's pretty certain they won't finish there if Oregon wins out—and there's a chance they don't even hold onto #2.
First, the #1 spot. Oregon is #1 in both polls but lags among the computers, ranking 4th in the composite. But after they finish the season with Stanford, Oregon State, and USC/UCLA, their computer ranking should be #2 only to Notre Dame, who is the current composite #1. That will easily make the Ducks the #1 BCS teams (this is assuming no upsets of course).
Then the battle is for #2. Right now Kansas State has a decent lead over Notre Dame, but Oregon's rise in the computers could knock the Wildcats to #3 in many of the computers. And as the season finishes, expect the gap in the polls between #3 Notre Dame and #2 Kansas State to narrow. If it narrows enough, and the Irish hold the computer advantage, they could well sneak past the Wildcats into the #2 spot. It could be as close as Alabama/Oklahoma State last year.
While the #1 spot is pretty certainly Oregon's if they win out, the #2 spot comes down to style points. If Notre Dame struggles at all against Wake Forest, then barely beats USC, the Irish will remain #3 in the polls without gaining any ground and finish #3 in the BCS. If they beat Wake Forest easily and beat the Trojans by around the same margin as Oregon—11 points—look for Notre Dame to gain on K-State. For K-State's part, they can't let Baylor stay close, and have to make a statement against Texas.
In the end, the human polls are more important than the computers, so both teams have to make their case to be in the national championship game, and K-State has an advantage due to "poll inertia" as they currently lead. But in the end we have the Irish at #2 by a very slim margin, which will make our overall BCS bowl projections different than everyone else has right now, with Oregon and Notre Dame in the BCS title game.
Therefore, Kansas State lands in the Fiesta Bowl, with their opponent one of the projected 4 SEC teams with 2 losses: Florida, LSU, Texas A&M, or Georgia. The Bulldogs will probably rank the lowest coming off an SEC title game loss to Alabama, and Florida beat LSU who beat Texas A&M. Also the Gators can seal the deal by beating Florida State, so it makes sense to project the Gators into the Fiesta Bowl. But if FSU beats Florida the Aggies might be a strong choice due to geography.
Alabama would be in the Sugar Bowl, and since most of the rest of the eligible at-large teams are from the SEC it comes down to Clemson or Oklahoma as the opponent. Clemson has been doing well lately and would have only 1 loss, but the bowl might choose Oklahoma anyway. We'll give it to Clemson since they now project in front of the Sooners.
Florida State makes the Orange Bowl as always, whether they beat Florida or not, and now that Louisville lost we revert to our previous projection of Rutgers winning the Big East. Stanford ends up in the Rose Bowl against projected Big Ten winner Wisconsin.
The only possible BCS buster is Louisiana Tech, who may finish ahead of Rutgers but has to make the top 16. That appears doubtful as only half the computers have them in the top 25 at this point.
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