2012-2013 BCS Bowl Predictor widget: Test every BCS bowl scenario & projection

So who is going to be in which BCS bowl game? This year is a lot more straightforward than last year, though the chance of Kent State becoming an automatic qualifier is very real and could shake things up.

There are eight games that could reasonably affect the BCS Bowl lineup. This simple tool should show what will happen under all outcomes of those eight games. Just click on the team on the left hand side that you think might win this weekend and the results are generated automatically.

There are a few grey areas, of course, and sometimes "style points", i.e. margin of victory, can influence the human pollsters enough that things can't be encapsulated by winner/loser, but for the most part this should tell you what will happen. And as always, the selection committee for a given bowl may offer up a surprise.

Welcome to the 2012-2013 version of the BCS Bowl Predictor!

Here's our rundown of each team's chances (listed by current BCS standings, with updates highlighted):

1. Notre Dame: They're in, and they're in the Big One. Pretty simple.
2. Alabama: Beat Georgia in the SEC final and they're in the Big One, too. Lose and they probably don't get any BCS bowl. At 10-2 they'll fall below #4 Florida, who will be the 2nd SEC team selected. Update: They won, they're in.
3. Georgia: Like Alabama, win and they're in the BCS Championship, lose and they're out of BCS bowl luck, for the same reason as Alabama: #4 Florida will be the #2 SEC team. Update: With the loss, Georgia is out of the BCS. Had they remained well ahead of Florida in the polls they might have had a shot, but they fell a few spots below in the coaches poll.
4. Florida: The Gators can't get in the BCS Championship game but they're essentially a lock for the Sugar Bowl. Only a really bizarre occurence (perhaps Alabama losing by a point in triple overtime, on a really bad call so that the pollsters keep the Tide at #2 in the polls? It's hard to think of a scenario) can keep Florida out of the #3 spot and a guaranteed bid. Their opponent could be any of Oklahoma, Clemson, Rutgers, or Louisville depending on other results, with Kansas State and Texas having an outside chance to land here. Update: Florida will probably play Oklahoma in the Sugar.
5. Oregon: The Ducks are basically locked into the Fiesta Bowl, as the consensus is they're a lock to be chosen to face the Big Twelve winner. Update: Pretty much a done deal, we'd guess.
6. Kansas State: The Wildcats aren't quite in Alabama and Georgia's shoes; that is, they don't need to win to make the Fiesta Bowl and if they aren't in it, they have a glimmer of hope to get the Sugar Bowl. The sure part is, if they beat Texas they're in the Fiesta Bowl. And even if they lose to Texas, an Oklahoma loss still puts them in the Fiesta Bowl. The question is, if they lose and Oklahoma wins, can K-State get the Sugar Bowl bid? It probably goes to Clemson, just like Virginia Tech got the bid last year. But you never know. Remember that if Kent State gets into the mix, the Sugar Bowl is closed off anyway. Update: Kansas State took care of any doubts by beating Texas, so they're in the Fiesta Bowl.
7. LSU: The Tigers really don't have any chance of making a BCS bowl since three SEC teams are ahead of them, and two will get a guaranteed bid.
8. Stanford: Stanford has to beat UCLA for the 2nd week in a row to clinch a Rose Bowl berth. Lose and they're out of luck; they won't be an at-large team since Oregon will be taken, closing out the Pac-12 possibilities. Update: with their 2nd straight win over UCLA, the Cardinal are in the Rose Bowl.
9. Texas A&M: See LSU.
10. South Carolina: See LSU.
11. Oklahoma: The Sooners need to beat TCU and have Texas beat Kansas State; that will put them in the Fiesta Bowl. If Kansas State beats Texas, Oklahoma should get the Sugar Bowl bid opposite Florida. However, if Kent State becomes an automatic qualifier, the Sugar Bowl bid disappears. So Oklahoma fans should root for Northern Illinois to win on Friday, and if Kent State wins a UCLA upset of Stanford ought to keep the Golden Flashes out of the mix. If not, then Texas upsetting Kansas State should do the trick, but if that happens the Sooners will have their eyes on the Fiesta Bowl anyway. Update: Beating TCU, along with Kansas State's win over Texas, almost certainly sends Oklahoma to the Sugar Bowl. There's still a small threat from Northern Illinois making the top 16, but it's not likely. UPDATE: Now some sources are saying it's going to happen. Cross your fingers, Sooners fans.
12. Nebraska: The Cornhuskers go to the Rose Bowl with a win over Wisconsin. With a loss, they probably don't stay in the top 14 to get an at-large bid. Clemson fans should root for Wisconsin. Update: Nebraska was crushed and won't go to the Rose Bowl.
13. Florida State: Beat Georgia Tech and they're in the Orange Bowl. Lose and they're out of the top 14, and out of the running. Update: Seminoles won, headed for the Orange Bowl.
14. Clemson: The Tigers have to wait for other teams to lose, and hope things don't work out to jostle them out of at-large territory (the top 14). Their best shot at a BCS bowl is to get a bid to the Sugar Bowl, which should happen if Oklahoma loses. If Oklahoma wins and Kansas State loses, Kansas State becomes a rival at-large team for the position but last year Virginia Tech was taken over the Wildcats and history would probably repeat. If UCLA upsets Stanford the Bruins could jump from #16 to knock them to #15, but their lead is fairly large. Good results for Clemson would be a Nebraska loss, and especially, a loss by #13 Florida State, both of which could give the Tigers some insurance to stay in the top 14. A very bad result for Clemson would be Kent State getting in the BCS mix, which closes down the Sugar Bowl pipeline. Update: The Big Twelve didn't do Clemson any favors, so it's unlikely they'll be the Sugar Bowl choice.
15. Oregon State: The Beavers are in a position like the SEC teams, with too many conference-mates ahead of them, and additionally they're not in at-large territory. Doesn't matter if they get there, either.
16. UCLA: The Bruins must beat Stanford. Then they're in the Rose Bowl. Update: UCLA lost and won't be in a BCS bowl.
17. Kent State: Somehow the Flashes have put themselves in line to be a true BCS buster. They need to get just one more spot and beating Northern Illinois might do it, but it's likely they need help. UCLA has to lose to Stanford, which is expected. Also, Texas can't upset Kansas State. That's not expected. So basically, Kent State should be in good shape if they beat NIU to win the MAC. UCLA loses and they move in at #16, and stay ahead of Texas and both Louisville and Rutgers, and go to the Orange Bowl. It's got a very good shot of happening. Update: Close, but no cigar. The Flashes lost in overtime; they'll go to a bowl game, but not a BCS bowl.
18. Texas: The Longhorns are a BCS longshot, as they need to get into the top 14. They're a big draw so if they manage that they'll probably be in the Sugar Bowl. But it's unlikely to happen, even if they beat Kansas State. They won't likely pass #14 Clemson or even #15 Oregon State, so their chances rest on losses by both FSU and Nebraska, and getting picked ahead of Clemson. Here an Oklahoma win puts the Sooners in the Fiesta Bowl; an Oklahoma loss keeps the Sooners in the at-large bin along with Texas whom they beat 65-21. In the latter case, we see the Sugar choosing Clemson to avoid the hassle. Update: The Longhorns lost, making any other speculation moot.
19. Michigan: No chance here.
20. Boise State: The Broncos have one more game, and got a huge gift from the coaches and Harris polls which lofted them to #15 and #17 respectively, but their computer ranking is still stuck at #30 and there's no way they'll make the top 16. Update: The Broncos beat Nevada but remained at #15 in the coaches poll, and probably won't be higher than #25 in the computer composite. That won't put them in the top 16, and Northern Illinois probably passes them.
21. Nothern Illinois: Kent State is the MAC team with the BCS shot. The Huskies can pass Boise State and Kent State to become the top non-AQ conference winner, but getting into the top 16 will be tough. A loss by UCLA to Stanford—who already beat them—isn't going to drop the Bruins in the polls much, so they'll probably remain ahead of NIU even if everyone else clears out. If they do somehow make it, they'll take the Orange Bowl slot of course. Update: The Huskies won in overtime over Kent State to keep their tiny chances alive for a BCS bowl, but it still doesn't look like a realistic possibility. If Texas loses, and Florida State, Nebraska, and Oklahoma all lose by blowout losses, some of them might fall far enough to make things interesting. But even #16 UCLA is likely to remain ahead of the Huskies since they lost by such a small margin to a top-ten team they had to play twice. Update 2: Nebraska's loss was damaging enough that it could drop the Cornhuskers quite a ways in the BCS standings. UCLA also fell a few spots despite playing Stanford closer than the previous game. Northern Illinois is #16 in the coaches poll, and will be close to that in the Harris poll. The Huskies will get very close to making the BCS, but it looks like they'll probably finish #17. UPDATE: Rumors are rampant that NIU has squeeked past Nebraska. If so, NIU can thank Wisconsin for the beatdown they put on the Cornhuskers for edging past them. And/or the voters for knocking UCLA down a few spots for losing by 3 to a team they'd already played.
    

Louisville and Rutgers aren't ranked in the top 25 of the BCS, but the winner [update: Louisville won 20-17] of their head-to-head clash will be either in the Orange or Sugar. A Rutgers win and the Scarlett Knights win the Big East outright; a Louisville win and the Cardinals are part of either a 4-team or 3-team tie at the top, depending on whether Cincinnati wins Saturday. It doesn't matter in the end, as Louisville would win tiebreakers in both scenarios. And since they won on Thursday night, the Cardinals are headed to a BCS bowl.