Finally got around to updating the yardage statistics for 2012, through the first six weeks of the season. Here are the interesting points:
- Total Yardage Differential: Oklahoma, Florida, and Oregon are the best states in terms of "winning" by yardage
Rank Team Rec Yds± Off Def
1. Texas Tech 4-1 312.3 8 2
2. Oklahoma St 2-2 285.0 2 40
3. Florida St 5-1 251.1 17 4
4. Alabama 5-0 210.4 73 1
5. LSU 5-1 186.8 34 6
6. Oregon 6-0 178.8 12 30
7. Fresno St 4-2 177.4 15 15
8. Oregon St 4-0 169.1 31 11
9. Oklahoma 3-1 164.2 32 12
10. Florida 5-0 161.0 76 3
Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, Florida State and Florida, Oregon and Oregon State all make the top ten in yardage differential. Texas Tech is on top despite their loss to Oklahoma, and is the only team in the top ten in both offense and defense (all adjusted for opposition).
Many of the top teams have played an easy schedule. Texas Tech certainly did before the Oklahoma game, while Oklahoma State beat Savannah State 84-0. FSU played two FCS teams including Savannah State (though their yardage stats their understate their dominance as only about 30 minutes of football was played). Right now these FCS games might "juice" even the adjusted figures a bit due to the high numbers involved, but over time the FCS games will lose their "pull" almost completely.
- Baylor is #1 on offense, #124 on defense
Rank Team Rec Yds± Off Def
38. Baylor 3-1 66.9 1 124
After the Bears' 70-63 loss to West Virginia, it's not too hard to believe, but they've just played four games so things could change.
- Total Offense: Oklahoma State has the most balanced offense of the top teams:
Raw Adj Team Rec Total[rank] Rush[rank] Pass[rank]
2 1. Baylor 3-1 659.1[ 1] 219.5[ 21] 439.6[ 1]
1 2. Oklahoma St 2-2 639.2[ 2] 294.3[ 4] 344.8[ 6]
6 3. Arizona 3-3 594.3[ 3] 220.2[ 20] 374.0[ 3]
4 4. Nevada 5-1 553.8[ 4] 258.0[ 8] 295.8[ 25]
12 5. Texas A&M 4-1 547.3[ 5] 252.8[ 9] 294.5[ 27]
3 6. West Virginia 5-0 545.4[ 6] 171.9[ 58] 373.4[ 4]
10 7. Clemson 5-1 531.6[ 7] 197.4[ 35] 334.2[ 9]
15 8. Texas Tech 4-1 531.4[ 8] 155.0[ 72] 376.4[ 2]
8 9. UCLA 4-2 528.8[ 9] 208.9[ 29] 319.8[ 14]
19 10. Troy 3-2 527.5[ 10] 191.4[ 39] 336.1[ 8]
Oklahoma State is the only team with a top ten rushing and passing offense. Again, however, after just four games—including Savannah State—the Cowboys' numbers may be a bit misleading. Texas A&M and Texas Tech make the top ten after adjusting for opposition, as does Troy. Marshall and Houston are in the "raw" top ten but drop out when adjusting for schedule—as does Oregon, surprisingly.
- Army is still the #1 rushing team despite their 1-4 start
Raw Adj Team Rec Total[rank] Rush[rank] Pass[rank]
1 1. Army 1-4 438.9[ 39] 400.6[ 1] 38.2[124]
2 2. Air Force 2-3 477.7[ 21] 362.8[ 2] 114.8[121]
4 3. Oregon 6-0 515.3[ 12] 307.7[ 3] 207.6[ 90]
5 4. Oklahoma St 2-2 639.2[ 2] 294.3[ 4] 344.8[ 6]
6 5. Nebraska 4-2 500.1[ 14] 277.9[ 5] 222.1[ 73]
8 6. New Mexico 3-3 354.3[ 97] 271.9[ 6] 82.4[123]
3 7. Georgia Tech 2-4 385.1[ 79] 265.7[ 7] 119.3[120]
7 8. Nevada 5-1 553.8[ 4] 258.0[ 8] 295.8[ 25]
20 9. Texas A&M 4-1 547.3[ 5] 252.8[ 9] 294.5[ 27]
10 10. Ohio State 6-0 443.6[ 36] 248.5[ 10] 195.0[ 97]
Army was the #1 rushing team (adjusted yards per game) last year and so far this year isn't a disappointment, despite the team's awful start. As expected, they're last in passing, putting them #39 in total adjusted offense. Triple-option teams Air Force (#2) and Georgia Tech (#7) make the list, as does New Mexico who rarely passes; all of these teams are among the 5 least productive passing teams.
Oregon, Nebraska, and Ohio State are also living by the run. Other than Oklahoma State, only Nevada and Texas A&M have truly strong passing games to go with their solid running attack.
- Passing: Teams who lost high-profile quarterbacks—Baylor, Oklahoma State, Houston—still putting up big numbers, as we predicted, and most teams are in line with expectations.
Raw Adj Team Rec Total[rank] Rush[rank] Pass[rank]
1 1. Baylor 3-1 659.1[ 1] 219.5[ 21] 439.6[ 1]
7 2. Texas Tech 4-1 531.4[ 8] 155.0[ 72] 376.4[ 2]
4 3. Arizona 3-3 594.3[ 3] 220.2[ 20] 374.0[ 3]
2 4. West Virginia 5-0 545.4[ 6] 171.9[ 58] 373.4[ 4]
3 5. Marshall 2-4 522.2[ 11] 161.8[ 64] 360.3[ 5]
5 6. Oklahoma St 2-2 639.2[ 2] 294.3[ 4] 344.8[ 6]
15 7. Washington St 2-4 402.8[ 62] 63.0[122] 339.8[ 7]
12 8. Troy 3-2 527.5[ 10] 191.4[ 39] 336.1[ 8]
11 9. Clemson 5-1 531.6[ 7] 197.4[ 35] 334.2[ 9]
6 10. Houston 2-3 481.9[ 18] 149.1[ 79] 332.8[ 10]
Houston, Baylor, and Oklahoma State were the #1, #3, and #4 passing teams last season, but all suffered big losses at quarterback and receiver. Still, their systems are potent and we predicted they would finish #11, #9, and #31 in passing this year. So far they've surpassed that, with Houston in the top ten, Baylor at #1, and Oklahoma State at #6. The teams we picked as the top three—Texas Tech, Washington State, and West Virginia—are also doing well at #2, #7, and #4. We had Clemson #6 and they're close, at #9; we projected Troy improving from #26 to #10 and they're at #8. A few teams have really exceeded our picks, however. We had Marshall—last year's #72—jumping to #43 and they've outdone that by sitting in the top 5 so far. But we thought Rich Rodriguez new offense would greatly dilute Arizona's #2 passing offense while favoring the run, but that hasn't happened. The Wildcats rank #4 in passing while improving to #20 on the ground.
- Defense: Alabama is #1 again, nearly in all categories
Raw Adj Team Rec Total[rank] Rush[rank] Pass[rank]
1 1. Alabama 5-0 180.2[ 1] 37.8[ 1] 142.3[ 2]
2 2. Texas Tech 4-1 219.1[ 2] 75.2[ 6] 143.9[ 3]
13 3. Florida 5-0 226.6[ 3] 67.4[ 2] 159.2[ 7]
4 4. Florida St 5-1 238.6[ 4] 90.8[ 10] 147.8[ 4]
5 5. Brigham Young 4-2 247.6[ 5] 92.6[ 12] 154.9[ 6]
3 6. LSU 5-1 259.1[ 6] 95.6[ 14] 163.4[ 9]
7 7. Maryland 3-2 269.6[ 7] 88.2[ 9] 181.3[ 18]
9 8. Michigan St 4-2 271.5[ 8] 73.4[ 4] 198.1[ 29]
12 9. South Carolina 6-0 275.6[ 9] 104.6[ 19] 170.9[ 11]
6 10. Connecticut 3-3 281.1[ 10] 106.3[ 21] 174.8[ 14]
Last year the Tide dominated all the defensive categories, and again Alabama is #1 in total yardage and rushing defense, and they're #2 in pass defense to Oklahoma. The top four teams all rank in the top ten in rushing and passing defense, and in general the entire top ten lacks a weak area. Texas Tech's defense seems to be for real, despite schedule-strength doubts when it ranked #1 last week.
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