This week the top four teams in the SportsRatings Top 25 take on other top 25 teams, all of whom are still in the national title race as well. Who wins and boosts their hopes? And who loses, putting a major dent in those plans?
#1 Alabama (7-0) hosts #14 Mississippi State (7-0)
Vegas oddsmakers line/spread: Alabama by 24
Strength power rating: Alabama 36-8
Game-comparison odds: Alabama wins 98%
Yardage projection: Alabama 31-3
Analysis: Mississippi State has been good this year. Make no mistake, they've exceeded expectations. We had them #40 pre-season, and most others had them somewhere around there. They received no votes in the AP, and a handful in the coaches' August polls. But even so, we predicted they'd be 6-1 at this point, not far off from 7-0 which they accomplished by beating Tennessee in a game we pegged as a tossup anyway. Though they're riding high in the polls as a result—and we have them #14, which they deserve—they might not even be a top 25 team in true strength. They rank #28 in our Strength power rating, and let's face it, the schedule hasn't been murder. Auburn turned out to be a lot worse than expected, and that was one of only two challenges so far. The Bulldogs don't excel anywhere—offense, defense, rushing, or passing. Meanwhile Alabama is somehow exceeding their lofty expectations, both on offense and defense. The Tide outrank the best team Mississippi State has faced by roughly 50 spots. The game is in Tuscaloosa. This week's only meeting of undefeated teams looks like a blowout.
Final Prediction: Alabama 44, Mississippi State 10
#2 Florida (7-0) vs. #12 Georgia (6-1)
Vegas oddsmakers line/spread: Florida by 6 1/2
Strength power rating: Florida 34-22
Game-comparison odds: Florida 73%
Yardage projection: Florida 24, Georgia 24
Analysis: Everybody's pretty much forgotten about Georgia in the SEC East, even though a win over Florida would pretty much give them the division title now that South Carolina has two losses. Florida can clinch outright with a win, and they deserve it after having to play LSU, South Carolina, and Georgia in the span of a month. Florida's offense and defense aren't superior by yardage, but they've been forcing turnovers and taking advantage, like they did against the Gamecocks. But people forget how good Georgia was in their first four games—ironically, before they got back their complete defense. Since then the Bulldogs survived a shootout with Tennessee, got embarrassed by South Carolina, and struggled to beat Kentucky 29-24. After three sub-par games Georgia is due for a good outing, and after playing at their peak for the last month Florida might have a downer. It should be just enough for the Bulldogs to win in Jacksonville.
Final Prediction: Georgia 27, Florida 26
#3 Kansas State (7-0) hosts #11 Texas Tech (6-1)
Vegas oddsmakers line/spread: Kansas State by 8
Strength power rating: Kansas State 36-28 (tempo-free: Kansas State 38-32)
Game-comparison odds: Kansas State 67%
Yardage projection: Texas Tech 30-16 (per-play: Kansas State 41-26)
Analysis: If this game were decided by yardage output, Texas Tech would win fairly easily. The Red Raiders are #2 in the nation in adjusted yardage differential, ranking #7 on offense and #2 on defense. Most of that offense comes through the air, of course, where they are #3 while their running game is #56. Kansas State counters with the #9 rushing offense, while only placing #107 in passing. Defensively they are #9 in the nation by yardage allowed, adjusted for opposition. But somehow, Kansas State is getting the job done on the scoreboard even better than Texas Tech. They win 2/3 of the game comparisons and hold an 8 point edge in the Strength power rating projection. Looking at the teams' play-by-play averages might shed some light: Kansas State is #2 in per-play yardage differential, ranking #1 on offense and #12 on defense, whereas Texas Tech is #7 overall. Clearly Kansas State is a running team and Texas Tech a passing team, but when Kansas State passes they make it count, ranking #2 in per-attempt production. Texas Tech is #38 in per-carry rushing offense, and only #16 overall. In other words, the Red Raiders have their hurry-up style to thank for much of their lofty per-game yardage ranking, and Kansas State's offense is just as good if not better. In our Tempo-Free Strength ratings, which correct for the number of drive opportunities, Kansas State's scoring offense is #1, Texas Tech's #3. This looks like a shootout but Kansas State can keep up at home.
Final Prediction: Kansas State 33, Texas Tech 30
#4 Notre Dame (7-0) at #8 Oklahoma (6-1)
Vegas oddsmakers line/spread: Oklahoma by 10
Strength power rating: Oklahoma 31-16
Game-comparison odds: Oklahoma 76%
Yardage projection: Oklahoma 42-24
Analysis: Oklahoma didn't look like a great team until after they'd lost a game. Since the K-State home loss, the Sooners have walloped Texas Tech 41-20, barnstormed Texas 63-21, and crushed Kansas 52-7. Suddenly the passing game, relatively weak since Ryan Broyles' injury last season, is looking great and they've added receiver Jalen Saunders to the mix. Meanwhile Notre Dame is being trashed for their last two performances (10 point win margin total) and the fact that they've played 3 Big Ten teams. But the Irish haven't played poorly at all. BYU was an obvious look-ahead trap, and no one's beaten the Cougars badly this year; even Oregon State was tied in the 3rd quarter. Beating Stanford at all isn't easy, and the Irish trashed Miami in Chicago every bit as bad as Kansas State did in Manhattan (KS). As for the Big Ten teams, no one except Notre Dame has beaten Michigan State by worse than 3 points—even Ohio State—and only Alabama has defeated Michigan. Does this mean the Irish are ready to beat Oklahoma on the road? No way. This will be only Notre Dame's 2nd road trip of the season, so any straightforward analysis has to point out that Oklahoma is the better team and should win. But we're picking an upset, led by Notre Dame's much-maligned offense, since that would be the most surprising result. The luck of the Irish could be back this year, and they'll need it in Norman.
Final Prediction: Notre Dame 41, Oklahoma 27
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