Let's not ask whether Oregon State is the best team in the nation, because that's a different question. What we're asking is are they the most accomplished team, despite being just 3-0?
We also didn't ask, "Is Oregon State #1" since that's the mistake that some people are making as they note that two BCS computers rank Oregon State at #1.
Surprising? Not to us, since our Success power rating puts the Beavers at #1. But that rating—like all of the BCS computer rankings—is not designed to be a predictive measure of strength, but rather a measure of accomplishment over the course of the season. None of the rating systems takes margin of victory into account. And so far, very little of the season has been played.
For reference, here's our Success top ten for games through September 29:
# Team rec Overall Strength Success
1. Oregon St 3-0 24.94 [ 14] 16.26 [ 23] 8.67 [ 1]
2. LSU 5-0 30.90 [ 12] 23.43 [ 12] 7.46 [ 2]
3. Florida St 5-0 37.79 [ 4] 30.60 [ 6] 7.19 [ 3]
4. Texas Tech 4-0 40.83 [ 2] 33.90 [ 2] 6.93 [ 4]
5. Notre Dame 4-0 25.29 [ 13] 18.63 [ 18] 6.65 [ 5]
6. Ohio State 5-0 20.00 [ 19] 13.45 [ 32] 6.54 [ 6]
7. Georgia 5-0 33.91 [ 8] 27.38 [ 10] 6.52 [ 7]
8. Alabama 5-0 43.39 [ 1] 36.97 [ 1] 6.42 [ 8]
9. Oregon 5-0 37.07 [ 5] 30.70 [ 5] 6.37 [ 9]
10. South Carolina 5-0 34.51 [ 7] 28.26 [ 9] 6.24 [ 10]
Note that our predictive formula, the Strength power rating, has Oregon State #23, and Alabama #1, whereas the Tide are only #8 in Success.
To measure a team's accomplishments, you generally want to figure out who has played the toughest schedule and done the best against that schedule. And remember as far as the BCS is concerned, a win by a point is the same as a win by 50 points.
So Oregon State's 38-35 win over Arizona is the same as Oregon's 49-0 win. And although Oregon State has played just 3 games, most of the rest of the nation played an FCS team which in some systems gives them no credit at all. Florida State is 5-0, but just 3-0 against FBS teams.
Oregon State has wins over 4-1 UCLA, 3-2 Wisconsin, and 3-2 Arizona. Those teams are 10-2 when removing the losses to the Beavers, 8-2 against FBS teams.
Alabama, meanwhile, has beaten 2-2 Michigan, 4-1 Western Kentucky, 1-4 Arkansas, 1-4 Florida Atlantic, and 3-2 Mississippi. Those teams are 11-8 against other opponents, and just 7-8 against FBS opponents.
So in just three games, Oregon State's vanquished opponents count for 8 wins over FBS teams, while Alabama's 5 opponents have beaten 7 FBS foes.
That's not exactly how things work, but it gives an idea of how these power ratings work, and why Oregon State can rank ahead of Alabama.
Like we noted, it's very early in the season so there isn't much information to use for judging a team and its opponents, particularly if victory margin is verboten. Given 3 to 5 games, often with one against an FCS team, and only a handful of contests to use to gauge those teams, there isn't "depth" to the season yet. In the next several weeks things will flesh out more, and by the end of the year the BCS computers will more or less match the AP rankings, with each having its own peculiarities—just like the AP rankings have peculiarities, and just as every person's opinion is different.
The linked article closed with the line "We'll go out on a limb and say some of these numbers may fluctuate greatly between now and December. Maybe between now and next Monday."
By the end of the season, of course things will be different. But how different will the computer rankings be next week? In Oregon State's case it could be a lot, as the Beavers play Washington State next week. A loss would of course send the Beavers tumbling—probably to #20 or #25 in those rankings where they are #1. But even if they win as expected they'll still fall; since they've only played three games, the Cougars water down their strength of schedule a lot and a win doesn't add a lot of "points" in cumulative systems.
Here's how we see next week's Success rankings, if things go to plan:
num Team record rating
1. LSU 6-0 10.08
2. Georgia 6-0 10.06
3. Oregon 6-0 9.35
4. Ohio State 6-0 9.19
5. Florida St 6-0 8.79
6. Notre Dame 5-0 8.50
7. Kansas St 5-0 7.24
8. Texas 5-0 7.02
9. Oregon St 4-0 6.76
10. TCU 5-0 6.69
The computers that have Oregon State #1 now might have them closer to #10 next weekend.
Next week the Success #1 might be LSU, as long as they can beat Florida. If not the Tigers, it should be Georgia—again, given than the Bulldogs get past South Carolina. If both lose, then Oregon might be #1 if they beat Washington. Otherwise Ohio State has an outside chance at the top spot by beating Nebraska. This week's #4 team, Texas Tech, could also move to the top if they upset Oklahoma.
Who will replace Oregon State at #1 in the Colley and Massey rankings? It won't be Alabama, who is idle. The Tide can expect to at best hold their #4 spot in Colley and #7 spot in Massey. Florida is #3 in Colley and #4 in Massey, so if they beat LSU they could take the top spot. If not, South Carolina is #6 in both and a win over Georgia might make them #1.
Computer rankings change the most early in the season, and next week's rankings should already begin to look a lot more the way people expect things to look.
Comments