SportsRatings: College Football

2012 SportsRatings Top 25 - week 9: Alabama #1, Notre Dame #2, Kansas State #3, Oregon #4

The SportsRatings Top 25 is our answer to the AP and coaches' polls. This subjective "poll" properly reflects head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

All of the top four teams faced challenges on Saturday and only one—#2 Florida—failed to make the cut. The Gators fell to Georgia while Alabama and Kansas State cruised and Notre Dame got a major win.

#1 Alabama looked as unstoppable as ever in beating #14 Mississippi State 38-7. The big debate is about the #2 spot, and we move Notre Dame there after they beat Oklahoma 30-13. They didn't really beat the Sooners more convincingly than #3 Kansas State (24-19) did, but the final scores become our tiebreaker. The Wildcats crushed Texas Tech 55-24. Oregon moves up to #4 after yet another lopsided win (Colorado, 70-14); the Ducks schedule gets harder starting next weekend.

Georgia beat Florida 17-9 and soared to #5 as Florida dropped to #6. The Gators' résumé is still one of the country's best, which is why we keep them ahead of undefeated Ohio State. The Buckeyes, like Oregon, don't have a top 25 win, but unlike the Ducks they haven't looked like a top 5 team; they beat Penn State 35-23. LSU, who lost to Florida earlier this season, was idle and moves up to #8.

Last week there were 11 undefeated teams; now there are six, and Louisville zooms into the top ten by virtue of being one of them. They also got their first (tentative) top 25 win over Cincinnati in overtime, 34-31. Florida State rounds out the top ten after destroying upstart ACC Coastal division leader Duke 48-7.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week nine 2012 (thru 10/27/2012)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Résumé: Losses/important wins
1	1	Alabama	8-0	wMissSt 38-7, =Mich 41-14
4	2	Notre Dame	8-0	w@OK 30-13, Stanford 20-13ot, Mich 13-6
3	3	Kansas State	8-0	w@OK 24-19, TxTech 55-24
5	4	Oregon	8-0
12	5	Georgia	7-1	L@SCar 35-7; w=Florida 17-9
2	6	Florida	7-1	L=Ga 17-9; wLSU 14-6, TexAM 20-17, SCar 44-11
7	7	Ohio State	9-0
9	8	LSU	7-1	L@Florida 14-6; wSCar 23-21, @TexAM  24-19
17	9	Louisville	8-0	wCincy 34-31ot
15	10	Florida State	8-1	L@NCState 17-16; wClemson 49-37
8	11	Oklahoma	5-2	L ND 30-13, KState 24-19; w@TxTech  41-20
16	12	Clemson	7-1	L@FSU 49-37
6	13	Oregon State	6-1	L@Wash 20-17
14	14	Mississippi State	7-1	L@Alabama 38-7
22	15	Texas A&M	6-2	L FLA 20-17, LSU 24-19; w@LaTech 59-57
19	16	Louisiana Tech	7-1	L TexAM 59-57
20	17	Toledo	8-1	L@Ariz 24-17ot; wCincy 29-23
23	18	South Carolina	7-2	L@LSU 23-21, @FLA 44-11; wGeorgia 35-7
24	19	Stanford	6-2	L@Wash 17-13, @ND 20-13ot; wUSC 21-14
13	20	Texas Tech	6-2	L OK 41-20, @KState 55-24
--	21	Kent State	7-1	L@Kentucky 47-14; w@Rutgers 35-23
11	22	Rutgers	7-1	L KentSt 35-23
21	23	Cincinnati	5-2	L@Toledo 29-23, @Lou 34-31ot
10	24	USC	6-2	L@Ariz 39-36, @Stanford 21-14
--	25	Boise State	7-1	L@MichSt 17-13
		out:
18	--	Ohio	7-1	L@MiamiOH 23-20
25	--	Michigan	5-3	L@Neb 23-9, =Ala 41-14, @ND 13-6

Oklahoma is now 5-2 with losses to two undefeated teams, so we can't drop them too far. They fall from #8 to #11. Clemson moves up to #12 after beating Wake Forest 42-13. Oregon State is another unbeaten who fell this weekend, to Washington 20-17; they fall to #13 from #6. Mississippi State holds at #14 despite their loss to Alabama. Everyone pretty much loses to Alabama badly, and the Bulldogs are 7-1.

Texas A&M pounded Auburn 63-21 and their résumé is strong with narrow losses to Florida and LSU; they jump to #15, one spot ahead of Louisiana Tech, whom they beat a few weeks ago. The Bulldogs had an off-day offensively in topping New Mexico State 28-14.

From #18 to #20 are three teams with two losses, all of whom struggled. South Carolina, whose résumé is very strong with two losses to top ten teams and a win over #5 Georgia, edged Tennessee 38-35 and lost Marcus Lattimore. Stanford escaped Washington State 24-17 at home. And Texas Tech fell from #13 to #20 after the Kansas State drubbing.

Hooray for the MAC part II: Kent State (7-1) enters at #21 after handing Rutgers its first loss of the season. Rutgers falls all the way to #22 from #11. Last week's Big East-killer, Toledo, moves up to #17 after edging Buffalo 25-20. But the league's undefeated hope, Ohio, finally got nabbed after living on the edge for weeks; the Bobcats fell to Miami of Ohio 23-20, and are replaced in the top 25 by Boise State, who also has one loss but beat the Redhawks convincingly weeks ago.

USC lost to Arizona 39-36, and with no top 25 wins they drop from #10 to #24 with Oregon looming next week. Arizona has two top 25 wins now that Toledo is in the picture, so the Wildcats could soon be in the rankings. Michigan's third loss, to Nebraska 23-9, kicks them back out of the top 25.

Next Weekend: At the beginning of the season, Alabama-LSU and Oregon-USC looked like two games that could function as a playoff for entry into the national championship game. Now they're looking more and more like blowouts, or at least not nearly as meaningful as they could have been.

#1 Alabama at #8 LSU: Though LSU can get back into the title picture with an upset. But Alabama is looking so strong that most people aren't going to give them much of a chance. And if they do somehow beat the Tide, they'd still need at least two other teams to lose to give them a title shot.

#4 Oregon vs. #24 USC: USC's 2nd loss killed their national championship hopes and beating Oregon won't reignite them. But Oregon lost when USC did, too. They might be playing the Trojans twice, and they need their schedule strength to be as high as possible in case there are more than two undefeated teams. Worse, beating the Trojans, even by a blowout, won't impress the pollsters as much as it would have before last week.

Week 8 Previews, Odds & Predictions: Alabama, Florida, Kansas State, Notre Dame: Who wins, who loses?

This week the top four teams in the SportsRatings Top 25 take on other top 25 teams, all of whom are still in the national title race as well. Who wins and boosts their hopes? And who loses, putting a major dent in those plans?

#1 Alabama (7-0) hosts #14 Mississippi State (7-0)
Vegas oddsmakers line/spread: Alabama by 24
Strength power rating: Alabama 36-8
Game-comparison odds: Alabama wins 98%
Yardage projection: Alabama 31-3
Analysis: Mississippi State has been good this year. Make no mistake, they've exceeded expectations. We had them #40 pre-season, and most others had them somewhere around there. They received no votes in the AP, and a handful in the coaches' August polls. But even so, we predicted they'd be 6-1 at this point, not far off from 7-0 which they accomplished by beating Tennessee in a game we pegged as a tossup anyway. Though they're riding high in the polls as a result—and we have them #14, which they deserve—they might not even be a top 25 team in true strength. They rank #28 in our Strength power rating, and let's face it, the schedule hasn't been murder. Auburn turned out to be a lot worse than expected, and that was one of only two challenges so far. The Bulldogs don't excel anywhere—offense, defense, rushing, or passing. Meanwhile Alabama is somehow exceeding their lofty expectations, both on offense and defense. The Tide outrank the best team Mississippi State has faced by roughly 50 spots. The game is in Tuscaloosa. This week's only meeting of undefeated teams looks like a blowout.
Final Prediction: Alabama 44, Mississippi State 10

#2 Florida (7-0) vs. #12 Georgia (6-1)
Vegas oddsmakers line/spread: Florida by 6 1/2
Strength power rating: Florida 34-22
Game-comparison odds: Florida 73%
Yardage projection: Florida 24, Georgia 24
Analysis: Everybody's pretty much forgotten about Georgia in the SEC East, even though a win over Florida would pretty much give them the division title now that South Carolina has two losses. Florida can clinch outright with a win, and they deserve it after having to play LSU, South Carolina, and Georgia in the span of a month. Florida's offense and defense aren't superior by yardage, but they've been forcing turnovers and taking advantage, like they did against the Gamecocks. But people forget how good Georgia was in their first four games—ironically, before they got back their complete defense. Since then the Bulldogs survived a shootout with Tennessee, got embarrassed by South Carolina, and struggled to beat Kentucky 29-24. After three sub-par games Georgia is due for a good outing, and after playing at their peak for the last month Florida might have a downer. It should be just enough for the Bulldogs to win in Jacksonville.
Final Prediction: Georgia 27, Florida 26

#3 Kansas State (7-0) hosts #11 Texas Tech (6-1)
Vegas oddsmakers line/spread: Kansas State by 8
Strength power rating: Kansas State 36-28 (tempo-free: Kansas State 38-32)
Game-comparison odds: Kansas State 67%
Yardage projection: Texas Tech 30-16 (per-play: Kansas State 41-26)
Analysis: If this game were decided by yardage output, Texas Tech would win fairly easily. The Red Raiders are #2 in the nation in adjusted yardage differential, ranking #7 on offense and #2 on defense. Most of that offense comes through the air, of course, where they are #3 while their running game is #56. Kansas State counters with the #9 rushing offense, while only placing #107 in passing. Defensively they are #9 in the nation by yardage allowed, adjusted for opposition. But somehow, Kansas State is getting the job done on the scoreboard even better than Texas Tech. They win 2/3 of the game comparisons and hold an 8 point edge in the Strength power rating projection. Looking at the teams' play-by-play averages might shed some light: Kansas State is #2 in per-play yardage differential, ranking #1 on offense and #12 on defense, whereas Texas Tech is #7 overall. Clearly Kansas State is a running team and Texas Tech a passing team, but when Kansas State passes they make it count, ranking #2 in per-attempt production. Texas Tech is #38 in per-carry rushing offense, and only #16 overall. In other words, the Red Raiders have their hurry-up style to thank for much of their lofty per-game yardage ranking, and Kansas State's offense is just as good if not better. In our Tempo-Free Strength ratings, which correct for the number of drive opportunities, Kansas State's scoring offense is #1, Texas Tech's #3. This looks like a shootout but Kansas State can keep up at home.
Final Prediction: Kansas State 33, Texas Tech 30

#4 Notre Dame (7-0) at #8 Oklahoma (6-1)
Vegas oddsmakers line/spread: Oklahoma by 10
Strength power rating: Oklahoma 31-16
Game-comparison odds: Oklahoma 76%
Yardage projection: Oklahoma 42-24
Analysis: Oklahoma didn't look like a great team until after they'd lost a game. Since the K-State home loss, the Sooners have walloped Texas Tech 41-20, barnstormed Texas 63-21, and crushed Kansas 52-7. Suddenly the passing game, relatively weak since Ryan Broyles' injury last season, is looking great and they've added receiver Jalen Saunders to the mix. Meanwhile Notre Dame is being trashed for their last two performances (10 point win margin total) and the fact that they've played 3 Big Ten teams. But the Irish haven't played poorly at all. BYU was an obvious look-ahead trap, and no one's beaten the Cougars badly this year; even Oregon State was tied in the 3rd quarter. Beating Stanford at all isn't easy, and the Irish trashed Miami in Chicago every bit as bad as Kansas State did in Manhattan (KS). As for the Big Ten teams, no one except Notre Dame has beaten Michigan State by worse than 3 points—even Ohio State—and only Alabama has defeated Michigan. Does this mean the Irish are ready to beat Oklahoma on the road? No way. This will be only Notre Dame's 2nd road trip of the season, so any straightforward analysis has to point out that Oklahoma is the better team and should win. But we're picking an upset, led by Notre Dame's much-maligned offense, since that would be the most surprising result. The luck of the Irish could be back this year, and they'll need it in Norman.
Final Prediction: Notre Dame 41, Oklahoma 27

BCS: What happens if Alabama (or Florida), Oregon, Kansas State, and Notre Dame all go undefeated?

Only two teams can make the BCS championship game, since the playoff doesn't arrive for a few more years. As of the games of October 20, 2012, there are still eleven undefeated teams in college football: Alabama, Florida, Kansas State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Rutgers, Louisville, Ohio, and Ohio State.

Only seven can finish the season undefeated. Alabama, Florida, and Mississippi State are all on a collision course from which only one will emerge. Oregon and Oregon State play each other, as do Rutgers and Louisville.

If seven teams were to finish undefeated, only four would have a shot at making the BCS championship game. Ohio State is ineligible; the Rutgers/Louisville winner would go to a BCS bowl but not the championship game; and Ohio would be fighting for a BCS bowl bid at all.

So in a multiple-undefeated-team scenario, the following are viable BCS championship contenders:

• Alabama, Florida, or Mississippi State
• Oregon or Oregon State
• Kansas State
• Notre Dame

Having 3+ viable undefeated BCS championship candidates isn't unprecedented, and 2004 is the most obvious example. That year USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn finished undefeated and #1, 2, and 3 in the final BCS standings. Two other teams, Utah and Boise State, were also undefeated and finished #6 and #9.

So what happens this year if there are four undefeated teams? Who has the edge in making that top two spots, and who could be left out? Here we make a few projections.

Note that in making these projections, we also are making assumptions for every other game that is to be played, so changing the results of other teams can have an effect. We'll look at some of those possibilities, too.

Scenario 1: Alabama, Oregon, Kansas State, and Notre Dame go undefeated

  1. Alabama                    13-0  192.05
  2. Notre Dame                 12-0  164.43
  3. Oregon                     13-0  156.73
  4. Kansas St                  12-0  119.65

Analysis: If Alabama is undefeated they'll retain the top spot in the polls pretty easily, while the #2 through #4 would be pretty tightly packed. The computers will favor the Tide, too, making Alabama #1 by a pretty wide margin.

The number that follows each team is a computation we've included to suggest how far apart the teams are spaced. Notre Dame and Oregon are pretty close but the computers favor the Irish. It's close enough that "style points" could decide things via the human pollsters.

The reason Notre Dame has an advantage is that they play both Oklahoma and USC, and beating those teams diminishes the best wins for both Oregon and Kansas State. The Wildcats won't have many foes left that are highly-ranked in the BCS as the Big Twelve teams will whittle one another's ranking down quite a bit.

Scenario 2: Florida, Oregon, Kansas State, Notre Dame

  1. Florida                    13-0  237.15
  2. Notre Dame                 12-0  168.61
  3. Oregon                     13-0  162.42
  4. Kansas St                  12-0  122.00

If Florida wins out instead of Alabama, the Gators are an even more certain number one. That's because they'd play every team Alabama would, plus Florida State, making them #1 in every computer ranking and just as dominant in the polls. The rest of the field would be unaffected.

Scenario 3: Mississippi State, Oregon, Kansas State, Notre Dame

  1. Notre Dame                 12-0  161.97
  2. Mississippi St             13-0  155.99
  3. Oregon                     13-0  155.02
  4. Kansas St                  12-0  118.37

The Bulldogs are the only undefeated SEC team that might miss making the top two. It would be a tossup between they and the Ducks, and style points would mean everything. They would have to beat Alabama, LSU, and Florida/Georgia, but it would come down to how those other teams did. If Alabama and Florida's only loss is to Mississippi State, then the Bulldogs will get in. If those teams lose other games, then it comes down to style points. Mississippi State is starting from a lower current position in the polls, so they'd have some trouble getting up to Oregon's level. This is the most uncertain scenario.

Scenario 4: Oregon State is undefeated instead of Oregon

  1. Alabama                    13-0  193.63
  2. Notre Dame                 12-0  165.92
  3. Oregon St                 *12-0  155.86
  4. Kansas St                  12-0  121.52

If Oregon State cleans the table instead of Oregon (*note that their game with Nicholls State would be cancelled) the results are pretty much the same as before, but with the Beavers replacing the Ducks: Alabama and Notre Dame are #1 and #2. With Florida instead of Alabama, Florida and Notre Dame are #1 and #2. With Mississippi State undefeated, it's again Notre Dame #1, with Mississippi State and Oregon State in a virtual tie.

The one way things change for the Pac-12 teams is if they are both undefeated except for their head-to-head matchup. If that happens, then it's Alabama vs. the Pac-12 champion for the title:

  1. Alabama                    13-0  195.20
  2. Oregon                     13-0  161.66
  3. Notre Dame                 12-0  155.74
  4. Kansas St                  12-0  122.49

Oregon State is a bit tighter with Notre Dame in that outcome, but still ahead at #2. And if it's Mississippi State from the SEC, then Oregon/Oregon State comes out #1, with Notre Dame #2

  1. Oregon St                  12-0  156.36
  2. Notre Dame                 12-0  153.37
  3. Mississippi St             13-0  150.02
  4. Kansas St                  12-0  121.06

That result is a virtual tie among the computers and probably the pollsters too, and would then depend on style points and the results of other games. In the same scenario but with Oregon undefeated, the Ducks would have an easier time due to the polls.

Scenario 5: Notre Dame holds the cards for Kansas State, Oregon

In all of these scenarios Kansas State gets left out even at 12-0. As mentioned, their problem is they've already beaten their best opponent (Oklahoma) and no opponent can finish with less than 2 losses, and even that seem unlikely in the Big Twelve. But if Oklahoma beats Notre Dame, suddenly Kansas State is a lot more viable:

  1. Alabama                    13-0  188.37
  2. Kansas St                  12-0  155.40
  3. Oregon                     13-0  153.51
  4. Oklahoma                   11-1  110.48

That result, of course, knocks Notre Dame out of the running which gives the Wildcats a 1-spot jump automatically, and with Oklahoma's added value with the computers the Wildcats could win a tight battle with Oregon for the #2 spot.

Of course, Notre Dame can also help out Oregon—even more—by losing to USC. Since Oregon probably plays USC twice, it's more imperative that the Trojans win that game; it could vault Oregon to the top spot.

  1. Oregon                     13-0  202.80
  2. Alabama                    13-0  185.14
  3. Kansas St                  12-0  115.70
  4. Notre Dame                 11-1  101.54

In Summary

• Things look very good for any undefeated SEC team, with Alabama and Florida basically locks. Mississippi State is questionable to finish #2 among four undefeated teams, but odds are probably with them.
• Notre Dame is in great shape to finish #2 under most scenarios. They'd need a lot of luck to finish #1, and a bit of back luck to finish #3, as far as the computers go. If they keep winning tight, though, the pollsters might favor Oregon enough to keep the Irish down a spot in the composite.
• Oregon is a close #3 in most 4-team outcomes. But not very much would have to change for them to make it to #2, and the human pollsters might make it happen anyway. To boost their computer ranking they need Oregon State and USC to do well. Oregon State is in basically the same boat as Oregon, with less chance for help from the pollsters.
• Kansas State is odd man out among the 4. They need to keep winning style points from the pollsters and, quite frankly, hope the other teams lose. Oklahoma could help them A LOT this weekend.
• The polls are the wild card: No one knows exactly how the teams will rank under these scenarios. We can assume it would be pretty tight among the top four, especially from #2 to #4, in pretty much every scenario. Oregon and Kansas State, in particular, need style points, as the SEC winner and Notre Dame will have a great computer score if undefeated.
• The computer rankings can shift a lot based on "other" games: Basically each team wants its "best victims" to win as much as possible. Oregon's fate changes a lot depending on whether Oregon State has 1 loss or 3 losses. Texas Tech finishing with 2 losses each would be great for Kansas State.

Games that matter the most this week:

1. Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma: If Notre Dame loses, they're of course eliminated from any undefeated team scenario. But if they win, it makes things very difficult for Kansas State. To the Wildcats, Notre Dame beating Oklahoma is like Obama winning Ohio is for Mitt Romney: everything else would have to work out perfectly.
2. Alabama vs. Mississippi State: This is, of course, an elimination game for the undefeated-teams scenario.
3. Florida vs. Georgia: This game probably determines who wins the SEC East. For Mississippi State, a Florida win is a big help as they really want an undefeated Gator team to face them in the SEC final. Alabama doesn't have to worry about who wins this one. And needless to say, Florida's chances of being undefeated take a huge hit if they lose to Georgia.
4. Kansas State vs. Texas Tech: This game underscores Kansas State's problem. Texas Tech already has a loss and will have at least two if K-State is unbeaten. Oklahoma State, TCU, and Texas have 2 losses and will have 3 if K-State goes unbeaten. That leaves just Oklahoma (with a loss to Notre Dame), Texas Tech, and West Virginia with 2 losses. But those six teams have some interplay left, leading to more losses. You can see how the Big Twelve is set up to grind themselves down so that Kansas State's wins aren't as impressive to the computers. Part of this is due to the fact that every team plays every other team in the conference. Playing nine conference games means more guaranteed losses than it does for the SEC teams, who play eight. Pac-12 teams play nine conference games too, but some teams avoid each other so there's a better chance of a few more low-loss teams. Add to that the fact that there is no conference championship game in the Big 12 anymore, denying them a last chance to boost their ranking. In short, Kansas State is screwed by circumstance in any four-team undefeated scenario, so they have to depend on style points. Winning big can help them in the polls, and the polls can overpower the computer rankings. The Wildcats need to beat Texas Tech big in case Notre Dame beats Oklahoma.

2012 Final BCS Standings Projection—post-Week 8

This is the Week 8 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.

Once again the bowl projections remain the same and this time the entire top ten is the same as last week's projection. The only team that drops out is North Carolina, which existed as a "ghost" like Ohio State since they're not eligible for post-season. Plus, a few teams that weren't in last week's actual BCS rankings—but were in our projection (Michigan and Wisconsin)—have joined the BCS standings, so things are lining up as we predicted. But in the next few weeks there are sure to be some big deviations from our projection, since there are games of major importance coming up and by now, our pre-season picks are picking a lot of "upsets" that probably won't occur. It does, however, mirror the general chaos that tends to occur in the last several weeks of the season.

This week we add a new column: the "Win Out Rank" column which estimates where each team would end up if they won out. These are to be taken one-at-a-time, that is, for each team the ranking is where that team would be if they win out and everything else stays the same. That's how you can get seven instances of teams reaching the #1 spot.

SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 8 (Oct. 20) results included

Previous Projection Finish	Projected 12/02/12 Finish	Team	Projected 12/02/12 Record	Current Record	Current BCS Rank	Win Out Rank	Projected BCS Bowl
1	1	Southern Cal	12-1	6-1	9	1	BCS Title
2	2	Oklahoma	11-1	5-1	8	2	BCS Title
3	3	LSU	12-1	7-1	6	3	Sugar
4	4	Florida St	12-1	7-1	12	4	Orange
5	5	Alabama	11-1	7-0	1	1	Orange
6	6	Rutgers	12-0	7-0	15	6	Sugar
7	7	Florida	10-2	7-0	2	1
8	8	Oregon	11-2	7-0	4	1	Rose
9	9	Notre Dame	10-2	7-0	5	1	Fiesta
10	10	Stanford	9-3	5-2	17	4
12	11	Texas	10-2	5-2	23	11	Fiesta
16	12	Kansas St	9-3	7-0	3	1
11	13	Michigan	11-2	5-2	22	13	Rose
13	14	Georgia	11-2	6-1	10	4
14	15	Clemson	11-1	6-1	18	15
15	16	Oklahoma St	9-3	4-2	--	8
17	17	South Carolina	9-3	6-2	13	11
[20]	[18]	Ohio State	10-2	8-0	[NA]	[NA]
18	18	Boise St	11-1	6-1	21	18
21	19	Texas A&M	9-3	5-2	20	14
20	20	Louisiana Tech	11-1	6-1	--	20
24	21	Oregon St	9-3	6-0	7	1
22	22	Wisconsin	10-3	6-2	25	15
25	23	Louisville	11-1	7-0	16	9
23	24	Nebraska	9-3	5-2	--	13
19	25	West Virginia	8-4	5-2	19	9

Dropped out: [25] North Carolina

Since all our top teams have a projected loss—and our top four have an actual loss already—if any of Alabama, Florida, Oregon, Notre Dame, Kansas State, or Oregon State win out to go undefeated, they're in the driver's seat at #1. If more than three do, it's yet another BCS scandal; at most there could be four major undefeated teams. Either Rutgers and Louisville can be undefeated, too, but neither will reach the top two. The Cardinals only bumped up a couple of spots for beating USF and are now projecting at 11-1.

Since we're picking almost all of the currently undefeated teams to end up with 2 or more losses, most finish well outside of the BCS title game. But each time they defy our picks—as Kansas State did in dramatic fashion by beating West Virginia—they move up. The Wildcats are now projected to finish #12, and just behind Texas who gets into the Fiesta Bowl. Looked at another way, Kansas State's near-worst-case outcome (3 more losses) and Texas' best-case scenario (5 wins) puts the Longhorns only one spot ahead of the Wildcats. Any deviation from that and K-State is in the Fiesta Bowl, or better; they project at #1 at 12-0, and at 11-1 they probably displace Oklahoma for the #2 spot.

There were very few other changes. Michigan dropped a few spots, somewhat for their near-loss to Michigan State, but more for Penn State's win over Iowa. The Wolverines don't play the Lions but they play Iowa, and that result weakened their schedule a bit. It boosted Ohio State's, so the Buckeyes move up to a virtual #18.

Texas A&M moved up two spots even as they lost to LSU. They kept it close, and SMU beat Houston to boost their schedule strength. The Aggies have lost only to Florida and LSU, but even if they win out their upside is limited as they play two FCS teams this season.

Missing Teams: Current BCS #11 Mississippi State, #14 Texas Tech, #24 Ohio

The Bulldogs aren't in our projection for the final BCS due mainly to their next three games: Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU. If they manage to win even one of those they'll probably make it. Texas Tech is already just outside the projected final top 25, but they have a rough road ahead, too: Kansas State, then Texas and Oklahoma State among their last five games. One upset and they'll be in, too. Ohio already is projected to have just one loss, but it keeps them out of the MAC title game. Beat Miami of Ohio this coming weekend and the Bobcats will project to 13-0. It also helps them that Penn State is doing so well lately. They're not getting a lot of style points—i.e., they're beating some pretty bad teams by narrow margins—which probably puts a lid on their progress in the human polls, below BCS at-large level.

Key Games Next Weekend

There are some huge games next weekend, involving the current #1, 2, 3, and 5 BCS teams. Of course these our only our #5, 7, 12, and 9, but all four are undefeated and control their destiny to some extent or another for the BCS title game.

• #2 Oklahoma vs. #9 Notre Dame: If the Irish win this one, not only does it knock the Sooners out of the BCS title game, it eliminates them. And Notre Dame suddenly becomes a very real BCS title game contender, not just a spoiler. An Oklahoma win is one of the things we project will propel the Sooners back toward the very top of the rankings.
• #5 Alabama vs. Mississippi State. We covered the Bulldogs' enigma above: undefeated but unloved by our projection. This is one of the reasons. Mississippi State has had it easy so far and this should be a rude awakening. If they get the upset, however, Alabama is knocked from the top of the current rankings, and possibly out of a BCS bowl in our projections. Mississippi State would jump well into the top ten of the current standings but we would still project further losses and no BCS bowl for the Bulldogs. Beating Alabama would be just the start of what they have to do to get there.
• #7 Florida vs. #14 Georgia: The fourth ranked team in a row that the Gators are playing, Georgia is still our favorite to win the SEC East. Florida can take over that spot, though it wouldn't help them much in our projection because they'd inherit Georgia's projected loss in the SEC title game! So the Bulldogs wouldn't fall very much by losing this one, either.
• #12 Kansas State vs. Texas Tech: Again, Texas Tech isn't in our current projection because of games like this one, which we originally predicted the Wildcats will win. If the Red Raiders win, they'll be in the top 25 but not a very high level, and the Wildcats would regress a few spots lower. In current BCS terms, a Wildcats win won't push them any higher, but a Texas Tech win could move the Red Raiders into the top ten, with Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Tech all having one loss, but Oklahoma having the rankings edge if they beat Notre Dame.
• #13 Michigan vs. #24 Nebraska: An important game in the Big Ten Legends division, and therefore in the Rose Bowl race. We have the Wolverines winning, and if the Cornhuskers pull off the upset it would be good news for any BCS busters as it would drop the winning Big Ten team pretty low in the final rankings. But Boise State and Louisiana Tech don't look like they'll finish in the top 16 anyway. We'll see what Ohio U. does next week as they could be in that picture.

2012 SportsRatings Top 25 - week 8: #1 up for grabs next weekend

The SportsRatings Top 25 is our answer to the AP and coaches' polls. This subjective "poll" properly reflects head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

It's getting to the point in the season where a team's résumé becomes as important as how dominant they've been over the also-rans on their schedule. And some teams have only played also-rans so far.

Case in point: former #2 Oregon, who demolished Arizona State 43-21, falls to #5 through no fault of their own. They just haven't played any good teams yet. And the teams at #3, #4, and #5 all have.

Alabama remains #1, though they lose their only top 25 win as Western Kentucky drops off, and gain a precarious top 25 win as Michigan re-enters. Florida has three top 25 wins and can make it four next week, so they are a legitimate challenger even for a dominant Crimson Tide team—in the rankings if not on the field. The Gators jump from #5 to #2. Kansas State moves up to #3 after clocking West Virginia so bad (55-14) that the Mountaineers get the boot, too; that leaves the Wildcats with one very impressive top 25 win and potentially another as they face Texas Tech next weekend. Notre Dame struggled with BYU before prevailing 17-14; they drop from #3 to #4 but now have two top 25 wins—the #24 and #25 teams—but face Oklahoma next Saturday.

Any of those teams that wins impressively could be #1 next week, or Alabama could retain the top spot by beating undefeated Mississippi State in a dominant fashion. Oregon plays lowly Colorado and #6 Oregon State (who beat Utah 21-7 Saturday) faces Washington, so the only forward progress they'll make is if the teams above them lose. Likewise #7 Ohio State—unimpressive in an overtime win vs. Purdue—won't make headway just by beating a surging Penn State.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week eight 2012 (thru 10/20/2012)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Résumé: Losses/important wins
1	1	Alabama	7-0	w=Mich 41-14, WKy 35-0
5	2	Florida	7-0	wLSU 14-6, TexAM 20-17, SCar 44-11
4	3	Kansas State	7-0	w@OK 24-19, w@WVa 55-14
3	4	Notre Dame	7-0	wStanford 20-13ot, Mich 13-6
2	5	Oregon	7-0
6	6	Oregon State	6-0
7	7	Ohio State	8-0
8	8	Oklahoma	5-1	L KState 24-19; w@TxTech 41-20
9	9	LSU	7-1	L@Fla 14-6; wSCar 23-21, @TexAM 24-19
11	10	USC	6-1	L@Stanford 21-14
13	11	Rutgers	7-0
12	12	Georgia	6-1	L@SCar 35-7
14	13	Texas Tech	6-1	L OK 41-20; wWVa 49-14
18	14	Mississippi State	7-0
15	15	Florida State	7-1	L@NCState 17-16; wClemson 49-37
17	16	Clemson	6-1	L@FSU 49-37
20	17	Louisville	7-0
21	18	Ohio	7-0
23	19	Louisiana Tech	6-1	L TexAM 59-57
--	20	Toledo	7-1	L@Ariz 24-17ot; wCincy 29-23
19	21	Cincinnati	5-1	L@Toledo 29-23
22	22	Texas A&M	5-2	L FLA 20-17, LSU 24-19; w@LaTech 59-57
10	23	South Carolina	6-2	L@LSU 23-21, @FLA 44-11; wGa 35-7
25	24	Stanford	5-2	L@Wash 17-13, @ND 20-13ot;  wUSC 21-14
--	25	Michigan	5-2	L=Alabama 41-14, @ND 13-6
		out:
16	--	West Virginia	5-2	L@TxTech 49-14, KSt 55-14
24	--	W. Kentucky	5-2	L ULM 43-42ot, @Alabama 35-0

Oklahoma dispatched Kansas as expected (52-7) and takes the next step in their attempted national championship rehab at Notre Dame next week. #9 LSU edged Texas A&M 24-19 to stay alive, too. And USC drubbed Colorado 50-6 and is still in decent shape despite their 1 loss. They move up one spot to #10.

Rutgers pounded Temple 35-10 and moves from #13 to #11, jumping 6-1 Georgia who had loads of trouble with Kentucky before winning 29-24. Sorry, Bulldogs, the "SEC is tough top-to-bottom" argument doesn't hold water. Some teams are good, others are bad, period.

#13 Texas Tech needed triple overtime but overcame TCU 56-53. Mississippi State, now 7-0 and yet to play anyone of consequence, will meet their maker next week against Alabama. Defeating MTSU 45-3 is actually fairly impressive, though, as the Blue Raiders whopped Georgia Tech 49-21; they move from #18 to #14.

#15 Florida State held on to beat Miami 33-20, and #16 Clemson beat Virginia Tech 38-17, but the conference title game will hardly be marquee as Duke now leads the Coastal division.

Hooray for the MAC: Ohio (7-0) was idle and moves up to #18, followed by the WAC's Louisiana Tech who continues to rack up ungodly points, beating Idaho 70-28. A second MAC team, Toledo, enters at #20 after beating Cincinnati 29-23; the previously unbeaten Bearcats fall to #21.

Best of the two-loss teams: Texas A&M suffered very narrow losses to Florida and LSU, and beat Louisiana Tech, so they remain #22, followed by South Carolina who wasn't competitive against the Gators. Stanford beat Cal 21-3 but their loss to Washington holds them back at #24. Western Kentucky lost to Louisiana-Monroe 43-42 in overtime and drops out; West Virginia's two losses are to top 25 teams but they were by a combined 76 points, so they fall out in favor of Michigan, the only team with both losses to undefeated teams. The Wolverines narrowly edged Michigan State 12-10 Saturday.

Next weekend is huge. As mentioned, each of the top four teams plays another top 25 team—in fact, the opponents are all in our top 14:

• #1 Alabama (7-0) vs. #14 Mississippi State (7-0)
• #2 Florida (7-0) vs. #12 Georgia (6-1)
• #3 Kansas State (7-0) vs. #13 Texas Tech (6-1)
• #4 Notre Dame (7-0) vs. #8 Oklahoma (5-1)

Depending on how the top four fare, the #1 spot is completely up for grabs next time around; even if all four teams win there could be reshuffling. And if all four lose, Oregon might finally grab the top spot.

Also next week, #17 Louisville (7-0) takes on #21 Cincinnati (5-1) in a game that would have been bigger in any other weekend (and if Cincinnati had stayed unbeaten).

Forde is wrong: A one-loss SEC team will not outrank an undefeated Big 12 or Pac-12 team in the BCS

Just wanted to clear this up. Pat Forde wrote:

Could there be another all-SEC title game? It’s not out of the question. If 'Bama and Florida both win out and face each other at 12-0, who’s to say a close, competitive loss would knock either out of the top two spots?

In that scenario, voters (who are two-thirds of the BCS formula) would probably elevate an undefeated team – say, Oregon, Kansas State or Notre Dame should one run the table – ahead of the loser of the SEC title game. But the computers (one-third of the formula) would be likely to disagree.

What he's suggesting is virtually impossible. An undefeated Oregon would be ahead of any 1-loss SEC team, as would an undefeated Kansas State. Notre Dame also, as their schedule is one of the toughest in the country.

Oregon wouldn't be #1 under that scenario, but they'd be #2. They have yet to play Oregon State who is currently undefeated, and they will probably face USC twice, as well as Stanford.

An undefeated Kansas State is a lock because the Big Twelve is every bit as loved by the computers as the SEC. Seven out of the conference's ten teams are ranked in the top 26 in the computer composite, compared to 7 of the SEC's 14 teams. If Kansas State goes undefeated the only reason they won't be #1 is because of the human pollsters, not the computers, who might have the Wildcats ahead of an undefeated Alabama (though the SEC has the advantage of a conference championship game, which helps).

Forde mentions that the high-ranked SEC teams still have to play each other which helps their SOS, but so do the Big Twelve teams, and almost every SEC team still has a game to play against an FCS foe, which will water down their schedule strength.

Notre Dame has yet to play both Oklahoma and USC, and they already have wins over Michigan and Stanford. No way a 1-loss SEC team stays ahead of an undefeated Irish at the end of the year.

The point is moot anyway because it's not the computers who decide the BCS participants. Even if Forde's scenario came true and somehow the computers kept a 1-loss Florida at #2, the pollsters would have the undefeated team at #2 and that's who would be #2 in the BCS. It's also worth noting that a "close, competitive loss" would only influence the human voters, not the computers who don't see margin of victory.

What about last year, then? In 2011, remember, the race wasn't between a 1-loss SEC team and an undefeated Big Twelve/Pac-12 team. It was between 1-loss Alabama and 1-loss Oklahoma State. That's a big difference. The Cowboys' loss to Iowa State is what made the majority of computers go with Alabama two of the six computers go with Alabama, while the pollsters sided with the Tide (thanks to commenter MJW who pointed out that it was 4-2 Oklahoma State; this just reinforces that the computers don't have as much influence as they did in, say, 2003. And that they don't automatically favor SEC teams, even in a year like 2011 where the SEC ended up with both teams in the BCS title game!) Had Oklahoma State been undefeated, there would have been no question they'd have been well ahead of the Tide.

The only undefeated teams that wouldn't be guaranteed to make the top two in Forde's scenario are the Big East teams (Rutgers, Louisville, or Cincinnati, who all probably fall short even at 12-0) and the Ohio teams, who wouldn't even make a BCS bowl (Ohio due to their easy MAC schedule, and Ohio State because they're ineligible).

The bottom line is, don't believe the hype that comes with the SEC ranking #1 and #2 in the initial BCS standings. There is very little chance of an all-SEC title game happening again, and if there is an undefeated alternative among Oregon, Oregon State, Kansas State, and Notre Dame, they will be the opponent. And even if there are only 1-loss teams to choose from, the SEC doesn't automatically have the inside track there, either. It would take a very special case—like last year's, where LSU was the clear #1 and Alabama one of only two other possible candidates, both with 1 loss—to have it happen again.

2012 Final BCS Standings Projection—post-Week 7

This is the Week 7 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.

This week almost nothing changed as there was only one real upset according to our picks; that was Texas Tech defeating West Virginia, who falls four spots and is "out of favor" in terms of achieving a BCS bowl. The bowl projections themselves remain the same as last week.

The big development was the arrival of the first official BCS rankings of the season. There weren't any major surprises but the current rankings give a clue as to how much things would have to move to match our projections. Here are our latest projections, with the current (actual) BCS ranking in the column 2nd from the right:

SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 7 (Oct. 13) results included

Previous Projection Rank	Projected 12/02/12 Rank	Team	Projected 12/02/12 Record	Current Record	Current BCS Rank	Projected BCS Bowl
1	1	Southern Cal	12-1	5-1	10	BCS Title
2	2	Oklahoma	11-1	4-1	9	BCS Title
3	3	LSU	12-1	6-1	6	Sugar
4	4	Florida St	12-1	6-1	14	Orange
5	5	Alabama	11-1	6-0	1	Orange
6	6	Rutgers	12-0	6-0	15	Sugar
9	7	Florida	10-2	6-0	2
7	8	Oregon	11-2	6-0	3	Rose
8	9	Notre Dame	10-2	6-0	5	Fiesta
11	10	Stanford	9-3	4-2	20
10	11	Michigan	11-2	4-2	--	Rose
12	12	Texas	10-2	4-2	25	Fiesta
13	13	Georgia	11-2	5-1	11
14	14	Clemson	11-1	5-1	19
16	15	Oklahoma St	9-3	3-2	--
19	16	Kansas St	8-4	6-0	4
18	17	South Carolina	9-3	6-1	7
17	18	Boise St	11-1	5-1	22
15	19	West Virginia	9-3	5-1	13
[20]	[20]	Ohio State	10-2	7-0	[NA]
20	20	Louisiana Tech	11-1	5-1	--
22	21	Texas A&M	9-3	5-1	18
21	22	Wisconsin	10-3	5-2	--
23	23	Nebraska	9-3	4-2	--
--	24	Oregon St	8-4	5-0	8
[--]	[25]	North Carolina	10-2	5-2	[NA]
--	25	Louisville	10-2	6-0	16

Dropped out: #24 Utah, #25 Vanderbilt

At the top we still have USC and Oklahoma fighting for the national title, with LSU a close 3rd. Currently LSU is 6th, ahead of both the Trojans and Sooners. If they all win out, will those two teams pass the Tigers? LSU would win six more games including the SEC title game, while USC and Oklahoma would go 7-0, which is an advantage in some of the computers and with the pollsters. LSU would have to beat Alabama, and that would help them a lot. But USC would beat Oregon twice, while Oklahoma has a number of high-ranked Big 12 teams left on their schedule. Both USC and Oklahoma play Notre Dame (currently #5) also. It would be very close between these three teams in this scenario—just like it was in 2003 when all three of these same teams had a single loss!

Alabama's computer ranking would be hit hard by a single loss and non-participation in the SEC title game, enough for Florida State to be ahead of them. The ACC is tremendously weak but the Seminoles would have a win over Florida—currently #2—to help them out. Of course, Alabama fully controls their own destiny to the national championship game, something that none of the top four teams can say as they each already have a loss.

Rutgers doesn't control their destiny either, as finishing 12-0 looks to put them behind the top 1-loss teams. But #7 Florida and #8 Oregon do; they're currently #2 and #3. And our #9 Notre Dame is very close to controlling its destiny, currently at #5; we have the Irish losing to USC and Oklahoma though, making a BCS bowl but not the big one.

Because Stanford and Texas were expected to lose last weekend those losses don't hurt them in the projection. The Cardinal won't make a BCS bowl, however, while Texas could—but they must win out. That might not seem likely after last week's bombardment at the hands of Oklahoma, but they're still in position as every team in the Big Twelve has a rough road ahead. Case in point: Kansas State, currently #4 in the BCS rankings, plays West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas yet. Those could just as easily be all wins (in which case a BCS title berth is likely) or all losses. The Big Twelve race is still wide open; even Iowa State made the initial BCS rankings at #24.

Big Ten, ACC weakness shows in current, projected rankings

Michigan is the one team we pick to make a BCS bowl despite not making the initial BCS rankings. In fact, there are no Big Ten teams in the initial BCS rankings, which is crazy. It's a product of weak early schedules, and many losses by pretty much every conference team, and the fact that Ohio State is ineligible for post-season play and therefore unranked in the BCS standings. The Wolverines are co-leaders in the Legends division while Wisconsin is #3 in the Leaders, which makes them the leader among eligible teams. The other three squads who can win the Leaders division are a combined 0-8.

The ACC is also very weak, which is why Clemson is only expected to reach #14 despite winning out. Style points will be needed to get them much higher. They're only #28 in the current computer ranking. Neither the ACC nor the Big Ten is likely to get more than one team in a BCS bowl.

BCS Buster less likely than at any time this season; Big East showdown looming

Potential BCS busters Louisiana Tech and Boise State had a bad weekend. The Bulldogs made it close but came up empty against Texas A&M, meaning they will not finish undefeated which was their only realistic shot at a BCS bowl. If they win out they'll reach about #20. Boise State beat Fresno State but Michigan State was upset by Iowa, which in turn hurts Boise. The six remaining games on their schedule won't do much at all for Boise State in the computer rankings, and even playing UNLV, Colorado State, and Hawaii will harm them in some of the calculations.

The Big East is having a sort of a renaissance with three teams currently undefeated and all of them in the BCS standings: Rutgers at #15, Louisville at #16, and Cincinnati at #21. We have Rutgers finishing very high after cleaning their slate, while Cincinnati hits a rough patch and falls back. Louisville is now projecting at 10-2 and if they beat Rutgers on the final weekend they'll take over the automatic bid from the Scarlet Knights. This might be another well-scheduled year for the Big East like 2005 when West Virginia, Louisville, and Rutgers provided drama until late in the season by all remaining undefeated.

Missing teams: Mississippi State, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, TCU, Iowa State

There are five teams in the current BCS standings that we don't have making it to the final top 25. Mississippi State is #12 and currently undefeated, and being from the SEC they essentially control their destiny all the way to the BCS title game. But we think the conference will catch up to them soon and they'll finish with several losses. Likewise Texas Tech, TCU, and Iowa State in the Big Twelve, with the Red Raiders probably having the most potential to remain in the hunt. As mentioned, Cincinnati is our odd man out among the three currently undefeated Big East teams.

Key Games Next Weekend

Big games next weekend and what they mean:

• USC and Oklahoma should have an easy time remaining #1 and #2 in our projection as the Trojans host 1-5 Colorado and the Sooners host 1-5 Kansas.
• #3 LSU faces #21 Texas A&M. If the Aggies are going to be a BCS factor they need to get this upset. LSU of course needs a win to stay alive for the BCS title, and probably for a BCS bowl hopes period.
• #7 Florida plays #17 South Carolina. Since we project a Florida win, a South Carolina upset would give the Gamecocks the SEC East title instead of Georgia, harming Florida and FSU. In context of the current rankings, the Gators are #2 and Gamecocks #7, so it will be a big deal for next week's "actual" rankings.
• #16 Kansas State vs. #19 West Virginia: This one is also a bigger deal for the current BCS rankings, where the Wildcats are #4 and Mountaineers #12. But for the long run it determines how far Kansas State can go, and whether West Virginia can get back in the hunt. A Kansas State win would bump the Wildcats up in our projection, and probably end West Virginia's BCS bowl hopes.

2012 SportsRatings Top 25 - week 7: Only Alabama impresses among unbeaten teams

The SportsRatings Top 25 is our answer to the AP and coaches' polls. This subjective "poll" properly reflects head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

It's safe to say there weren't as many surprises this week as last week. Even this weekend's big "upset"—LSU beating higher-ranked South Carolina by 2, in Baton Rouge—hardly counts as a shocker. With Texas Tech's complete dismantling of West Virginia, two teams in the top six lost—still significant, but nothing compared to last week's four.

#1 Alabama rolled along with a 42-10 win over Missouri, the Tigers' worst loss. For comparison, Mizzou lost to Georgia at home and at South Carolina by 21 points each.

The Tide further distanced themselves from the pack as the rest of the top teams didn't raise their stock appreciably. #2 Oregon was idle; new #3 Notre Dame needed a controversial goal-line stand to beat former #14 Stanford; #4 Kansas State edged Iowa State 27-21; #5 Florida turned back Vanderbilt 31-17; #6 Oregon State finally pulled away from BYU to win 42-24; and worst of all, #7 Ohio State rose to 7-0 on the "strength" of a 52-49 win over Big Ten whipping boy Indiana.

The weekend's most impressive performance was #8 Oklahoma's 63-21 drubbing of former #12 Texas. That, along with former victim Texas Tech's huge win over West Virginia, made a strong argument for the Sooners as the nation's top 1-loss team. If not the Sooners, it's #9 LSU, who did just enough to beat South Carolina 23-21; the Gamecocks fall from #3 to #10.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week seven 2012 (thru 10/13/2012)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Alabama	6-0	wWKentucky 35-0
2	2	Oregon	6-0
4	3	Notre Dame	6-0	wStanford 20-13ot
5	4	Kansas State	6-0	w@Oklahoma 24-19
7	5	Florida	6-0	wLSU 14-6, TexAM 20-17
9	6	Oregon State	5-0
8	7	Ohio State	7-0
10	8	Oklahoma	4-1	L KSt 24-19; w@TxTech 41-20,=Tex 63-21
11	9	LSU	6-1	L@Florida 14-6; wSCarolina 23-21
3	10	South Carolina	6-1	L@LSU 23-21; wGeorgia 35-7
15	11	USC	5-1	L@Stanford 21-14
13	12	Georgia	5-1	L@SCar 35-7
16	13	Rutgers	6-0
--	14	Texas Tech	5-1	L OK 41-20; wWVa 49-14
17	15	Florida State	6-1	L@NCState 17-16; wClemson 49-37
6	16	West Virginia	5-1	L@TxTech 49-14; w@Texas 48-45
18	17	Clemson	5-1	L@FSU 49-37
19	18	Mississippi State	6-0
20	19	Cincinnati	5-0
22	20	Louisville	6-0
23	21	Ohio	7-0
--	22	Texas A&M	5-1	L FLA 20-17; w@LaTech 59-57
21	23	Louisiana Tech	5-1	L TexAM 59-57
24	24	W. Kentucky	5-1	L@Alabama 35-0
14	25	Stanford	4-2	L@Wash 17-13, @ND 20-13ot;  wUSC 21-14
		out:
12	-	Texas	4-2	L WVa 48-45, =OK 63-21
25	-	Texas-San Antonio	5-1	L@Rice 34-14

USC kicks off the 2nd ten with a 24-14 win over Washington, but the Trojans are without a top 25 win, as is 5-1 Georgia who was idle this week.

Rutgers edged Syracuse 23-15 to go to 6-0. An easy schedule is both a boon and hindrance to the Scarlet Knights.

Texas Tech fell out of the rankings last week but rebounded with a huge 49-14 win over West Virginia. The Red Raiders re-enter at #14 and the Mountaineers tumble to #16, as last week's victim Texas got beat by 42, making their 3-point win look pretty weak. Florida State sits between the two at #15 after pounding Boston College 51-7. #16 Clemson was idle.

Undefeated and unimpressive: The four other remaining undefeated teams didn't exactly inspire confidence that they'll remain that way for very long. #18 Mississippi State beat Tennessee 41-31; #19 Cincinnati rolled Fordham 49-17; #20 Louisville outlasted Pittsburgh 45-35; and #21 Ohio held on at home to beat 1-6 Akron 34-28. Note that this means the Big East is tied with the SEC, each having three undefeated teams. The Pac-12 has two, the Big Twelve one, and the Big Ten one (with independent Notre Dame the other).

The best game of the weekend had to be Texas A&M vs. Louisiana Tech. It ended with a 59-57 Aggie win, but it wasn't the typical shootout. Texas A&M jumped to a 27-0 2nd quarter lead, and it was still a 39-16 blowout at the half. But the Bulldogs never gave up. Armed with the nation's #1 scoring offense, they cut the lead to 46-44 in the fourth quarter, after which the Aggies padded their lead back to 59-44 with 2:30 left. Louisiana Tech scored, got an onside kick and scored again in just 1 1/2 minutes. Their 2-point conversion attempt failed and they didn't get the ball back. The Bulldogs missed a PAT that was returned for 2 points by the Aggies earlier. Texas A&M (5-1) moves in at #22, and Louisiana Tech falls to #23. 

Western Kentucky holds at #24 after edging Troy 31-26 on Thursday.

While two Texas teams entered the top 25, two also fell out. 4-2 Stanford holds the final spot due to their win over USC, and the fact that they nearly beat the Irish. Texas, also 4-2, drops out due to being beaten too brutally. And with Texas-San Antonio's first loss, 34-14 to 2-5 Rice, the Roadrunners lose their spot, too. They're not likely to work their way back in, but at 5-1 they need just two more victories for a winning season in their first FBS campaign.

Next weekend's big games:

• #5 Florida vs. #10 South Carolina in yet another critical SEC matchup
• #9 LSU hosts #22 Texas A&M: Both teams lost to Florida, and one will likely be eliminated from SEC title discussion.
• #4 Kansas State vs. #16 West Virginia: Can the Mountaineers bounce back from a huge defeat?

Yardage Statistics: Offense, Defense, Rushing, Passing for 2012

Finally got around to updating the yardage statistics for 2012, through the first six weeks of the season. Here are the interesting points:

• Total Yardage Differential: Oklahoma, Florida, and Oregon are the best states in terms of "winning" by yardage

Rank  Team                        Rec   Yds±   Off  Def
  1. Texas Tech                   4-1   312.3    8    2
  2. Oklahoma St                  2-2   285.0    2   40
  3. Florida St                   5-1   251.1   17    4
  4. Alabama                      5-0   210.4   73    1
  5. LSU                          5-1   186.8   34    6
  6. Oregon                       6-0   178.8   12   30
  7. Fresno St                    4-2   177.4   15   15
  8. Oregon St                    4-0   169.1   31   11
  9. Oklahoma                     3-1   164.2   32   12
 10. Florida                      5-0   161.0   76    3

Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, Florida State and Florida, Oregon and Oregon State all make the top ten in yardage differential. Texas Tech is on top despite their loss to Oklahoma, and is the only team in the top ten in both offense and defense (all adjusted for opposition).

Many of the top teams have played an easy schedule. Texas Tech certainly did before the Oklahoma game, while Oklahoma State beat Savannah State 84-0. FSU played two FCS teams including Savannah State (though their yardage stats their understate their dominance as only about 30 minutes of football was played). Right now these FCS games might "juice" even the adjusted figures a bit due to the high numbers involved, but over time the FCS games will lose their "pull" almost completely.

• Baylor is #1 on offense, #124 on defense

Rank Team                         Rec    Yds±  Off  Def
 38. Baylor                       3-1    66.9    1  124

After the Bears' 70-63 loss to West Virginia, it's not too hard to believe, but they've just played four games so things could change.

• Total Offense: Oklahoma State has the most balanced offense of the top teams:

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  2   1. Baylor                       3-1   659.1[  1]  219.5[ 21]  439.6[  1]
  1   2. Oklahoma St                  2-2   639.2[  2]  294.3[  4]  344.8[  6]
  6   3. Arizona                      3-3   594.3[  3]  220.2[ 20]  374.0[  3]
  4   4. Nevada                       5-1   553.8[  4]  258.0[  8]  295.8[ 25]
 12   5. Texas A&M                    4-1   547.3[  5]  252.8[  9]  294.5[ 27]
  3   6. West Virginia                5-0   545.4[  6]  171.9[ 58]  373.4[  4]
 10   7. Clemson                      5-1   531.6[  7]  197.4[ 35]  334.2[  9]
 15   8. Texas Tech                   4-1   531.4[  8]  155.0[ 72]  376.4[  2]
  8   9. UCLA                         4-2   528.8[  9]  208.9[ 29]  319.8[ 14]
 19  10. Troy                         3-2   527.5[ 10]  191.4[ 39]  336.1[  8]

Oklahoma State is the only team with a top ten rushing and passing offense. Again, however, after just four games—including Savannah State—the Cowboys' numbers may be a bit misleading. Texas A&M and Texas Tech make the top ten after adjusting for opposition, as does Troy. Marshall and Houston are in the "raw" top ten but drop out when adjusting for schedule—as does Oregon, surprisingly.

• Army is still the #1 rushing team despite their 1-4 start

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1   1. Army                         1-4   438.9[ 39]  400.6[  1]   38.2[124]
  2   2. Air Force                    2-3   477.7[ 21]  362.8[  2]  114.8[121]
  4   3. Oregon                       6-0   515.3[ 12]  307.7[  3]  207.6[ 90]
  5   4. Oklahoma St                  2-2   639.2[  2]  294.3[  4]  344.8[  6]
  6   5. Nebraska                     4-2   500.1[ 14]  277.9[  5]  222.1[ 73]
  8   6. New Mexico                   3-3   354.3[ 97]  271.9[  6]   82.4[123]
  3   7. Georgia Tech                 2-4   385.1[ 79]  265.7[  7]  119.3[120]
  7   8. Nevada                       5-1   553.8[  4]  258.0[  8]  295.8[ 25]
 20   9. Texas A&M                    4-1   547.3[  5]  252.8[  9]  294.5[ 27]
 10  10. Ohio State                   6-0   443.6[ 36]  248.5[ 10]  195.0[ 97]

Army was the #1 rushing team (adjusted yards per game) last year and so far this year isn't a disappointment, despite the team's awful start. As expected, they're last in passing, putting them #39 in total adjusted offense. Triple-option teams Air Force (#2) and Georgia Tech (#7) make the list, as does New Mexico who rarely passes; all of these teams are among the 5 least productive passing teams.

Oregon, Nebraska, and Ohio State are also living by the run. Other than Oklahoma State, only Nevada and Texas A&M have truly strong passing games to go with their solid running attack.

• Passing: Teams who lost high-profile quarterbacks—Baylor, Oklahoma State, Houston—still putting up big numbers, as we predicted, and most teams are in line with expectations.

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1   1. Baylor                       3-1   659.1[  1]  219.5[ 21]  439.6[  1]
  7   2. Texas Tech                   4-1   531.4[  8]  155.0[ 72]  376.4[  2]
  4   3. Arizona                      3-3   594.3[  3]  220.2[ 20]  374.0[  3]
  2   4. West Virginia                5-0   545.4[  6]  171.9[ 58]  373.4[  4]
  3   5. Marshall                     2-4   522.2[ 11]  161.8[ 64]  360.3[  5]
  5   6. Oklahoma St                  2-2   639.2[  2]  294.3[  4]  344.8[  6]
 15   7. Washington St                2-4   402.8[ 62]   63.0[122]  339.8[  7]
 12   8. Troy                         3-2   527.5[ 10]  191.4[ 39]  336.1[  8]
 11   9. Clemson                      5-1   531.6[  7]  197.4[ 35]  334.2[  9]
  6  10. Houston                      2-3   481.9[ 18]  149.1[ 79]  332.8[ 10]

Houston, Baylor, and Oklahoma State were the #1, #3, and #4 passing teams last season, but all suffered big losses at quarterback and receiver. Still, their systems are potent and we predicted they would finish #11, #9, and #31 in passing this year. So far they've surpassed that, with Houston in the top ten, Baylor at #1, and Oklahoma State at #6. The teams we picked as the top three—Texas Tech, Washington State, and West Virginia—are also doing well at #2, #7, and #4. We had Clemson #6 and they're close, at #9; we projected Troy improving from #26 to #10 and they're at #8. A few teams have really exceeded our picks, however. We had Marshall—last year's #72—jumping to #43 and they've outdone that by sitting in the top 5 so far. But we thought Rich Rodriguez new offense would greatly dilute Arizona's #2 passing offense while favoring the run, but that hasn't happened. The Wildcats rank #4 in passing while improving to #20 on the ground.

• Defense: Alabama is #1 again, nearly in all categories

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1   1. Alabama                      5-0   180.2[  1]   37.8[  1]  142.3[  2]
  2   2. Texas Tech                   4-1   219.1[  2]   75.2[  6]  143.9[  3]
 13   3. Florida                      5-0   226.6[  3]   67.4[  2]  159.2[  7]
  4   4. Florida St                   5-1   238.6[  4]   90.8[ 10]  147.8[  4]
  5   5. Brigham Young                4-2   247.6[  5]   92.6[ 12]  154.9[  6]
  3   6. LSU                          5-1   259.1[  6]   95.6[ 14]  163.4[  9]
  7   7. Maryland                     3-2   269.6[  7]   88.2[  9]  181.3[ 18]
  9   8. Michigan St                  4-2   271.5[  8]   73.4[  4]  198.1[ 29]
 12   9. South Carolina               6-0   275.6[  9]  104.6[ 19]  170.9[ 11]
  6  10. Connecticut                  3-3   281.1[ 10]  106.3[ 21]  174.8[ 14]

Last year the Tide dominated all the defensive categories, and again Alabama is #1 in total yardage and rushing defense, and they're #2 in pass defense to Oklahoma. The top four teams all rank in the top ten in rushing and passing defense, and in general the entire top ten lacks a weak area. Texas Tech's defense seems to be for real, despite schedule-strength doubts when it ranked #1 last week.

2012 Final BCS Standings Projection post-Week 6: After upheaval, Notre Dame a key player

This is the Week 6 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.

SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 6 results included

Previous Projection	Projected 12/02/12 Rank	Team	Projected 12/02/12 Record	BCS Bowl
3	1	Southern Cal	12-1	BCS Title
4	2	Oklahoma	11-1	BCS Title
1	3	LSU	12-1	Sugar
2	4	Florida St	12-1	Orange
5	5	Alabama	11-1	Orange
8	6	Rutgers	12-0	Sugar
9	7	Oregon	11-2	Rose
7	8	Notre Dame	10-2	Fiesta
22	9	Florida	9-3
10	10	Michigan	11-2	Rose
12	11	Stanford	9-3
6	12	Texas	10-2	Fiesta
11	13	Georgia	11-2
15	14	Clemson	11-1
21	15	West Virginia	10-2
13	16	Oklahoma St	9-3
14	17	Boise St	11-1
24	18	South Carolina	9-3
16	19	Kansas St	8-4
[18]	[20]	Ohio State	10-2
17	20	Louisiana Tech	11-1
19	21	Wisconsin	10-3
18	22	Texas A&M	9-3
20	23	Nebraska	9-3
23	24	Utah	9-3
--	25	Vanderbilt	9-3

Dropped out: #25 BYU

Despite all the upheaval in the rankings this week, the same ten teams are still projected to go to BCS bowls as were last week. But many of them are in different venues.

Both LSU and Florida State lost and dropped out of the projected BCS championship game; they are replaced by USC and Oklahoma, but all four of those teams has a loss now and none controls their destiny.

USC can insure that no Pac-12 team finishes ahead of it, but the Trojans would finish below both an undefeated SEC and Big 12 team; Oklahoma can't prevent Kansas State from going undefeated, so they don't even control their destiny in their conference race; LSU controls their destiny in the SEC East and therefore the Sugar Bowl berth, but that might not put them in the top two in a number of scenarios—and in any case they still have to get past Alabama among others. Finally, Florida State is hard-pressed to be in the top two even if they win out since the ACC is so pathetic this year. Their only hope resides with Florida; the Gators would have to win the SEC and go undefeated except for a loss to the Seminoles. Even then, there can't be both an undefeated Pac-12 or Big Twelve team.

Who does control their own destiny to the BCS title game? Alabama, for certain, and Oregon in almost all cases. Any undefeated team from the SEC, Pac-12, or Big Twelve is hard to ignore, but three undefeated teams means someone is crowded out. Rutgers even at 12-0 is crowded out by 1-loss teams most likely, and those would have to thin considerably.

Adding to the intrigue, Notre Dame also controls their own destiny and would be a viable BCS championship candidate if undefeated, as their schedule is very tough and they actually play both the projected #1 and #2 teams! If the Irish don't win out, they can certainly play spoiler to one or both of those teams. And if they lose to both, they're still in line for a top-8 finish which guarantees them a BCS bowl berth. In reality, a top 14 finish should be all it takes as the first bowl that can get the Irish probably will.

For now, LSU winning the SEC and FSU winning the ACC puts those teams in the Sugar and Orange bowls. Texas' loss drops them to #12, which is still eligible unlike West Virginia's #15, so the Longhorns are in the Fiesta Bowl thanks to Oklahoma ascending to the title game. The Fiesta has first pick and takes Notre Dame; the Sugar has 2nd pick and won't take another SEC team so they're left with Rutgers; and the Orange takes Alabama. The Longhorns and Sooners play next weekend and a Texas win would refigure the picture again.

The upset winners: Florida, West Virginia, and South Carolina

The Gators gained the most in our projection—moving from an afterthought at #22 up to BCS bowl contention at #9—by beating LSU. We're calling for their season to hit a few bumps with close losses in three games but they clearly control their destiny to the BCS title game. They still play Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida State.

West Virginia moved from #21 to #15 and is still not projected to make a BCS bowl. The Mountaineers control their destiny to the Fiesta Bowl at a minimum however. Key games are against Oklahoma and Kansas State, the only other undefeated Big Twelve team.

South Carolina jumped to #18 but still isn't the projected SEC East winner yet. They face LSU and Florida over the next two weeks as well as Clemson at the end of the season.

BCS Busters and others:

It was a bad week for BCS busters. The ascendance of so many SEC and Big 12 teams into the upper reaches of the projected rankings means there's much less chance that a non-AQ conference winner gets into the top 12 for an automatic berth.

Boise State and Louisiana Tech both slid back a few spots despite winning. Independent BYU (whom we'd count as a BCS buster, while Notre Dame doesn't) slid off the chart also despite winning. Meanwhile Vanderbilt upset Missouri and hopped back onto the scene. The Commodores are priced to perfection and have no shot at a BCS bowl, but their last six games are fairly easy by SEC standards (Auburn, UMass, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wake Forest) and winning all of them isn't out of the question. First they'd have to upset Florida, however. #24 Utah is also 2-3 and even winning out wouldn't presently put them in contention.

Key Games Next Weekend

More big games next weekend and what they mean:

• #2 Oklahoma vs. #12 Texas - One of these teams will be eliminated from the national title picture, and probably from the Big Twelve title race as well. We have Oklahoma winning in the projection above, so a Texas victory changes things.
• #3 LSU vs. #18 South Carolina - A Gamecock win would knock LSU out of the SEC title game, and probably put South Carolina in on the SEC East side. South Carolina would be competing with Florida for the Sugar Bowl in this scenario.
• #8 Notre Dame vs. #11 Stanford  - Stanford could actually be the spoiler for Notre Dame here. This victory is key to Stanford's slim BCS title hopes, as Notre Dame later plays USC and Oklahoma. The Irish would be a borderline BCS team if they lose, but could still finish in the top 14.
• #9 Florida vs. #25 Vanderbilt - Vandy is only 2-3 yet we have them winning an upset here. Florida needs to not have a letdown after their big win over LSU in this potential trap game; if they win here they become the SEC East favorite.
• #20 Louisiana Tech vs. #22 Texas A&M - Louisiana Tech is projected to be 11-1—with this game the only thing standing between the Bulldogs and an undefated season. Win this one and suddenly the BCS picture changes, with Louisiana Tech a serious contender for a top-12 spot and an automatic bid.

2012 SportsRatings Top 25 - week 6: Four Top Ten Teams Lose

The SportsRatings Top 25 is our answer to the AP and coaches' polls. This subjective "poll" properly reflects head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

Wow. If it wasn't enough that Florida beat #2 LSU, West Virginia beat #5 Texas, and South Carolina beat #6 Georgia, #3 Florida State fell to North Carolina State after seemingly leading safely the entire game. All of those upsets caused a shakeup at the top of our Top 25, and there was a shakeout at the bottom due mostly to results that weren't upsets.

#1 Alabama survived the carnage by not playing this weekend, but no one else was very safe, resulting in three new teams in the top five. Oregon beat ex-#16 Washington 52-21, scoring a bit more and giving up a bit more than LSU did vs. the Huskies; they replace the Tigers at #2. South Carolina might have had the best win of the weekend, crushing Georgia 35-7; they're up from #7 to #3. New #4 Notre Dame beat Miami 41-3, the same margin by which #5 Kansas State beat the Hurricanes a few weeks ago. The Wildcats handled Kansas 56-16 on Saturday.

West Virginia and Florida were big winners in their conference play, with the Mountaineers edging Texas on the road 48-45, while the Gators used a different ploy—killer defense—to beat LSU 14-6. They both move up six spots. Ohio State moved to 6-0 while clobbering Nebraska 63-38, and Oregon State took care of Washington State 19-6. Oklahoma beat previously undefeated Texas Tech 41-20 to rejoin the top ten.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week six 2012 (thru 10/06/2012)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Alabama	5-0	wWKentucky 35-0
4	2	Oregon	6-0	wWashington 52-21
7	3	South Carolina	6-0	wGeorgia 35-7
8	4	Notre Dame	5-0
9	5	Kansas State	5-0	w@Oklahoma 24-19
12	6	West Virginia	5-0	w@Texas 48-45
13	7	Florida	5-0	wLSU 14-6
10	8	Ohio State	6-0	wNebraska 63-38
11	9	Oregon State	4-0	w@UCLA 27-20
15	10	Oklahoma	3-1	L KansasSt 24-19; w@TTech 41-20
2	11	LSU	5-1	L@Florida 14-6; wWash 41-3
5	12	Texas	4-1	L WVa 48-45
6	13	Georgia	5-1	L@SCar 35-7
17	14	Stanford	4-1	L@Wash 17-13; wUSC 21-14
18	15	USC	4-1	L@Stanford 21-14
24	16	Rutgers	5-0
3	17	Florida State	5-1	L@NCState 17-16; wClemson 49-37
23	18	Clemson	5-1	L@FSU 49-37
--	19	Mississippi State	5-0
--	20	Cincinnati	4-0
--	21	Louisiana Tech	5-0
--	22	Louisville	5-0
--	23	Ohio	6-0
--	24	W. Kentucky	4-1	L@Alabama 35-0
--	25	Texas-San Antonio	5-0
		out:
16	--	Washington	3-2	L@LSU 41-3, @Oregon 52-21;  wStanford 17-13
14	--	Northwestern	5-1	L@PennSt 39-28
22	--	Utah State	4-2	L@Wisc 16-14, @BYU 6-3
19	--	UCLA	4-2	L OregonSt 27-20, @Cal 43-17
20	--	Nebraska	4-2	L@UCLA 36-30, @OSU 63-38
25	--	Texas Tech	4-1	L Oklahoma 41-20
21	--	TCU	4-1	L IowaSt 37-23

Now for the losers. LSU, Texas, and Georgia drop 9, 7, and 7 spots respectively. None has a current top 25 win. At #14, Stanford survived a big scare from Arizona to win in overtime 54-48, but the Cardinal are one of just two teams to have a loss to a team with 2 losses. USC follows at #15 after beating Utah 38-28 on Thursday.

Rutgers remained unbeaten with a 19-3 win over UConn and took advantage of the carnage in the lower ranks to move to #16.

Florida State fell all the way to #17 due to their loss to unranked N.C. State. They remain a spot ahead of Clemson, whom they beat earlier in the year. The Tigers rallied to beat Georgia Tech 47-31.

New Blood: With a slew of teams losing in the lower half, we've moved in every single undefeated team. New this week are: #19 Mississippi State (5-0) who beat Kentucky 27-14; #20 Cincinnati (4-0) who beat Miami of Ohio 52-14; #21 Louisiana Tech (5-0), beat UNLV 58-31; #22 Louisville (5-0) idle this week; #23 Ohio (6-0) who edged Buffalo 38-31; and at #25, Texas-San Antonio (5-0) who is new to the FBS this year. The Roadrunners have only played two FBS teams this year, so their appearance is mostly a symbolic reward. But as long as they can keep winning they'll remain in.

With one more slot to fill, we looked at every 1-loss team that has only lost to an undefeated team. From those three we chose Western Kentucky (4-1) since they've only lost to #1 Alabama. The other two are Texas A&M (4-1, lost to Florida) and Baylor (3-1, lost to West Virginia).

Faced with carnage throughout the rankings, we cleaned house. Teams with two losses were dropped, including Utah State (who lost to BYU 6-3), UCLA (upset by Cal 43-17), and Nebraska (lost to Ohio State). Washington has the best résumé of the 2-loss teams, falling to Oregon and LSU and holding a win over Stanford; their losses were very one-sided however. They get a chance to redeem themselves against USC next weekend.

Northwestern lost to unranked Penn State 39-28 and the Wildcats fell out since they have no offsetting Top 25 win. TCU lost to Iowa State 37-23, and rather than bring the Cyclones in we dropped the Horned Frogs out. The reason was that the Cyclones have a loss to Texas Tech, who lost to Oklahoma badly this weekend; that meant the whole lot would have to be cast out.

Next weekend could be just as crazy, as there are several big matchups:

• #3 South Carolina has to "prove it" against #11 LSU, in what could be the Tigers' last stand in their fight for the SEC title;
• #4 Notre Dame hosts #14 Stanford, another reason why it's nice to have a strong Independent team in this day of mega-conferences;
• #10 Oklahoma takes on #12 Texas. Six Big Twelve teams have one conference loss, and the Sooners and Longhorns are among them. But unless you think someone is going undefeated, this could still determine the Big Twelve champion.

Is Oregon State the most accomplished team so far?

Let's not ask whether Oregon State is the best team in the nation, because that's a different question. What we're asking is are they the most accomplished team, despite being just 3-0?

We also didn't ask, "Is Oregon State #1" since that's the mistake that some people are making as they note that two BCS computers rank Oregon State at #1.

Surprising? Not to us, since our Success power rating puts the Beavers at #1. But that rating—like all of the BCS computer rankings—is not designed to be a predictive measure of strength, but rather a measure of accomplishment over the course of the season. None of the rating systems takes margin of victory into account. And so far, very little of the season has been played.

For reference, here's our Success top ten for games through September 29:

  #  Team                        rec   Overall      Strength      Success
  1. Oregon St                   3-0   24.94 [ 14]  16.26 [ 23]   8.67 [  1]
  2. LSU                         5-0   30.90 [ 12]  23.43 [ 12]   7.46 [  2]
  3. Florida St                  5-0   37.79 [  4]  30.60 [  6]   7.19 [  3]
  4. Texas Tech                  4-0   40.83 [  2]  33.90 [  2]   6.93 [  4]
  5. Notre Dame                  4-0   25.29 [ 13]  18.63 [ 18]   6.65 [  5]
  6. Ohio State                  5-0   20.00 [ 19]  13.45 [ 32]   6.54 [  6]
  7. Georgia                     5-0   33.91 [  8]  27.38 [ 10]   6.52 [  7]
  8. Alabama                     5-0   43.39 [  1]  36.97 [  1]   6.42 [  8]
  9. Oregon                      5-0   37.07 [  5]  30.70 [  5]   6.37 [  9]
 10. South Carolina              5-0   34.51 [  7]  28.26 [  9]   6.24 [ 10]

Note that our predictive formula, the Strength power rating, has Oregon State #23, and Alabama #1, whereas the Tide are only #8 in Success.

To measure a team's accomplishments, you generally want to figure out who has played the toughest schedule and done the best against that schedule. And remember as far as the BCS is concerned, a win by a point is the same as a win by 50 points.

So Oregon State's 38-35 win over Arizona is the same as Oregon's 49-0 win. And although Oregon State has played just 3 games, most of the rest of the nation played an FCS team which in some systems gives them no credit at all. Florida State is 5-0, but just 3-0 against FBS teams.

Oregon State has wins over 4-1 UCLA, 3-2 Wisconsin, and 3-2 Arizona. Those teams are 10-2 when removing the losses to the Beavers, 8-2 against FBS teams.

Alabama, meanwhile, has beaten 2-2 Michigan, 4-1 Western Kentucky, 1-4 Arkansas, 1-4 Florida Atlantic, and 3-2 Mississippi. Those teams are 11-8 against other opponents, and just 7-8 against FBS opponents.

So in just three games, Oregon State's vanquished opponents count for 8 wins over FBS teams, while Alabama's 5 opponents have beaten 7 FBS foes.

That's not exactly how things work, but it gives an idea of how these power ratings work, and why Oregon State can rank ahead of Alabama.

Like we noted, it's very early in the season so there isn't much information to use for judging a team and its opponents, particularly if victory margin is verboten. Given 3 to 5 games, often with one against an FCS team, and only a handful of contests to use to gauge those teams, there isn't "depth" to the season yet. In the next several weeks things will flesh out more, and by the end of the year the BCS computers will more or less match the AP rankings, with each having its own peculiarities—just like the AP rankings have peculiarities, and just as every person's opinion is different.

The linked article closed with the line "We'll go out on a limb and say some of these numbers may fluctuate greatly between now and December. Maybe between now and next Monday."

By the end of the season, of course things will be different. But how different will the computer rankings be next week? In Oregon State's case it could be a lot, as the Beavers play Washington State next week. A loss would of course send the Beavers tumbling—probably to #20 or #25 in those rankings where they are #1. But even if they win as expected they'll still fall; since they've only played three games, the Cougars water down their strength of schedule a lot and a win doesn't add a lot of "points" in cumulative systems.

Here's how we see next week's Success rankings, if things go to plan:

num  Team                       record   rating
  1. LSU                         6-0   10.08
  2. Georgia                     6-0   10.06
  3. Oregon                      6-0    9.35
  4. Ohio State                  6-0    9.19
  5. Florida St                  6-0    8.79
  6. Notre Dame                  5-0    8.50
  7. Kansas St                   5-0    7.24
  8. Texas                       5-0    7.02
  9. Oregon St                   4-0    6.76
 10. TCU                         5-0    6.69

The computers that have Oregon State #1 now might have them closer to #10 next weekend.

Next week the Success #1 might be LSU, as long as they can beat Florida. If not the Tigers, it should be Georgia—again, given than the Bulldogs get past South Carolina. If both lose, then Oregon might be #1 if they beat Washington. Otherwise Ohio State has an outside chance at the top spot by beating Nebraska. This week's #4 team, Texas Tech, could also move to the top if they upset Oklahoma.

Who will replace Oregon State at #1 in the Colley and Massey rankings? It won't be Alabama, who is idle. The Tide can expect to at best hold their #4 spot in Colley and #7 spot in Massey. Florida is #3 in Colley and #4 in Massey, so if they beat LSU they could take the top spot. If not, South Carolina is #6 in both and a win over Georgia might make them #1.

Computer rankings change the most early in the season, and next week's rankings should already begin to look a lot more the way people expect things to look.

2012 Final BCS Standings Projection Week 5 update: Stanford loss, Texas win clear up picture

Presenting the Week 5 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.

SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 5 results included

Previous Projection	Projected 12/02/12 Rank	Team	Projected 12/02/12 Record	BCS Bowl
1	1	LSU	13-0	BCS title
2	2	Florida St	13-0	BCS title
3	3	Southern Cal	12-1	Rose
4	4	Oklahoma	11-1	Fiesta
5	5	Alabama	11-1	Sugar
13	6	Texas	11-1	Sugar
7	7	Notre Dame	10-2	Orange
9	8	Rutgers	12-0	Orange
8	9	Oregon	11-2	Fiesta
10	10	Michigan	11-2	Rose
12	11	Georgia	12-1
6	12	Stanford	9-3
11	13	Oklahoma St	9-3
14	14	Boise St	11-1
16	15	Clemson	11-1
17	16	Kansas St	8-4
18	17	Louisiana Tech	11-1
[19]	[18]	Ohio State	10-2
23	18	Texas A&M	9-3
15	19	Wisconsin	10-3
22	20	Nebraska	9-3
19	21	West Virginia	9-3
20	22	Florida	8-4
25	23	Utah	9-3
24	24	South Carolina	8-4
--	25	Brigham Young	8-4

Dropped out: #21 Michigan State

Last week there were a couple of bowl projections that could have been controversial if chosen by the bowl representatives. Stanford was ahead of Oregon yet we gave the Ducks the Fiesta bid, while Texas got the Sugar Bowl bid despite being behind Oklahoma State and being projected to lose to the Cowboys.

In the former case we figured there'd be more interest in the Ducks, and they would hold a "win" over Stanford. The Sugar Bowl likewise would want Texas a lot more than Oklahoma State, and if the Longhorns lost on the road in a close game it could be justified—though likely criticized.

Last weekend's games cleared up both controversial "picks" as Stanford lost to Washington, dropping them far below Oregon, and Texas beat Oklahoma State, making the Longhorns a virtual shoo-in for a BCS bowl if they finish 11-1.

Other than those two outcomes, there was very little more than incidental movement among the top 16 teams; in fact, the bowl projections remain exactly the same as last week.

There were, however, "upsets" in both major Big Ten games, with Wisconsin falling to Nebraska and Ohio State beating Michigan State. But the Big Ten's standing in the BCS this year is not good, and Michigan (or whoever wins the league) looks like the only BCS bowl team. Ohio State in ineligible for post-season play, so even as they rise to 10-2 they move up just one "virtual spot" and we don't give them the division title of course; that stays with the Badgers for now, and they fall to #19. Nebraska moves up to #20 while Michigan State projects to 7-5 now and isn't even on the radar.

Texas A&M demolished Arkansas and moved up a few spots; if they have more success in the SEC than we think, they'll move up higher. BYU inched onto the radar after beating Hawaii 47-0, but they already have 2 losses so further "progress" will be tough, requiring them to upset Notre Dame, perhaps. It's probably more likely that they will be upset themselves in the next few weeks by either Utah State or Oregon State, two teams who have far outplayed their pre-season rankings.

Key Games Next Weekend

Quite a few games next week are key to the BCS outcome:

• #1 LSU at #22 Florida: LSU hasn't looked good lately, and the smart money is on Alabama to make the BCS title game. We'll stick with the LSU upset pick for the long haul, but if the Tigers don't play well in the rest of their schedule they won't be in the SEC title game even if they beat the Tide. Hopefully for their sake the 38-22 win over Towson was completely due to looking ahead to Florida. The Gators are projected to lose 4 games including this one, so a win would vault them into the BCS discussion quickly. Being from the SEC, however, they need to nearly go undefeated to be one of the conference's two top teams. Winning the East division is their first order of business.
• #21 West Virginia at #6 Texas: Just after icing their Sugar Bowl berth in our projection, the Longhorns have to "prove it" by beating West Virginia. The Mountaineers scored 70 on Baylor but Texas' defense might be one of the best in college football—this game will tell. West Virginia will be looking a lot better in our projection if they win but still not BCS-bowl worthy. However, both teams control their own destiny to the Fiesta Bowl, and probably to the BCS title game; one team will lose that control on Saturday.
• #11 Georgia at #24 South Carolina: These teams, like Florida, are vying for the SEC East crown so that they might win the SEC title game and with it a Sugar Bowl berth. And since both are undefeated, like all the other SEC teams in our featured games they control their destiny to a BCS championship game berth. A South Carolina win doesn't make the Gamecocks our favorite to win the division, however, and unless undefeated, the division winner probably doesn't pass LSU and Alabama as the two BCS reps. So this game has to be treated as a must-win for any BCS bowl chance for either team.
• #3 USC at #24 Utah: The Trojans are gone but not forgotten, and our projection has them rising to within an inch of Florida State, waiting for the Seminoles to trip up. Utah was supposed to be good this year but their 2-2 start has put that into question. If they want to get back into contention for a BCS bowl, winning this game would help. It's their last chance to make a big splash, too, as they don't play Oregon or Stanford—which is also the reason for their strong record projection. The other "hot" Pac-12 teams—Oregon State, UCLA, Washington, ASU—are all still projected to finish 7-5 or so, and will need another "upset" or two to get on the list.
• #20 Nebraska at #[18] Ohio State: Can the Buckeyes play spoiler again? Nebraska is one of several teams looking to depose Michigan in the Legends division, and then gain a Rose Bowl bid by beating the rep from the depleted Leaders side. Ohio State would be the favorite there but they aren't eligible. We had the Buckeyes winning this game pre-season, so a Cornhusker victory would move Nebraska within striking distance of BCS consideration, as the Big Ten struggles to find two teams worthy of consideration.

2012 SportsRatings Top 25 week 5 - top teams struggle

 

The SportsRatings Top 25 is our answer to the AP and coaches' polls. This subjective "poll" properly reflects head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

There was a lot of intra-top 25 play this weekend but nothing shook up the rankings like Stanford's Thursday night loss to Washington. That put the Huskies in the rankings ahead of the Cardinal, and necessitated demoting USC several spots. Other than that, the only "upset" was Nebraska's win over Wisconsin which put the Cornhuskers back in and kicked the Badgers out.

The top four remained the same though none dominated. #1 Alabama beat Mississippi 33-14 to hold on to the top spot. #2 LSU struggled with Towson from the FCS, eventually winning 38-22 which diminished the Tigers further in the eyes of many. But at the same time, their previous 41-3 win over Washington is now arguably the best win of the college football season, as Alabama's 41-14 Michigan win and Oregon's 49-0 win over Arizona aren't top 25 wins anymore. Besides, neither the #3 or #4 teams were all that impressive either, with Florida State topping 2-3 South Florida 30-17 and Oregon beating Washington State 51-26 after leading just 23-19 at the break.

Each team from #5 to #10 moved up a spot as former #5 Stanford dropped. Texas edged former #20 Oklahoma State on the road, 41-36; Georgia won one of the day's many shootouts, 51-44 over Tennessee; South Carolina pulled away from Kentucky 38-17; Notre Dame and Kansas State were idle; and Ohio State moved into the top ten by beating former #18 Michigan State 17-16.

Oregon State gets 3rd top 25 win; West Virginia survives shootout

SportsRatings Top 25 - week five 2012 (thru 9/29/2012)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Alabama	5-0
2	2	LSU	5-0	wWashington 41-3
3	3	Florida State	5-0	wClemson 49-37
4	4	Oregon	5-0	wArizona 49-0
6	5	Texas	4-0	w@OKst 41-36
7	6	Georgia	5-0
8	7	South Carolina	5-0
9	8	Notre Dame	4-0	w@MichSt 20-3
10	9	Kansas State	4-0	w@Oklahoma 24-19
11	10	Ohio State	5-0	w@MichSt 17-16
15	11	Oregon State	3-0	w@UCLA 27-20, Wisc 10-7, @Ariz 38-35
13	12	West Virginia	4-0
14	13	Florida	4-0
17	14	Northwestern	5-0
16	15	Oklahoma	2-1	L KansasSt 24-19
--	16	Washington	3-1	L@LSU 41-3; wStanford 17-13
5	17	Stanford	3-1	L@Wash 17-13; wUSC 21-14
12	18	USC	3-1	L@Stanford 21-14
24	19	UCLA	4-1	L OregonSt 27-20; wNeb 36-30
--	20	Nebraska	4-1	L@UCLA 36-30; wWisconsin 30-27
23	21	TCU	4-0
22	22	Utah State	4-1	L@Wisconsin 16-14
25	23	Clemson	3-1	L@FSU 49-37
--	24	Rutgers	4-0
--	25	Texas Tech	4-0
		out:
18	--	Michigan State	3-2	L NotreDame 20-3, OhioSt 17-16
19	--	Arizona	3-2	L@Ore 49-0, OreSt 38-35; wOKst 59-38
20	--	Oklahoma State	2-2	L@Arizona 59-38, Texas 41-36
21	--	Wisconsin	3-2	L@OreSt 10-7, @Neb 30-27; wUtahSt 16-14

Oregon State has played just three games but arguably is the most accomplished team in the nation. The Beavers have defeated three teams that were in the top 25 at the time, though only one—UCLA—remains as they knock Arizona out with a 38-25 road win. They move from #15 to #11.

West Virginia attracted a lot of attention by putting up 70 points on Baylor to remain undefeated, but they also gave up 63 points which raises big questions about their ability to beat Big Twelve teams that actually play defense—Texas for example, whom they play next week. They're up just one spot to #12. #13 Florida was idle.

Northwestern remained undefeated, beating Indiana 44-29 and moves up 3 to #14. The 5-0 Wildcats move ahead of 2-1 Oklahoma who was idle.

Washington (3-1) was the top debut in the rankings after they beat former #5 Stanford 17-13 on Thursday, throwing a wrench in the top 25. With both teams 3-1, Washington deserves to be ahead of Stanford, who remains ahead of USC (also 3-1). Keeping USC (idle this week) at #12 would have necessitated moving 5 teams down unfairly, so instead we penalize the Trojans. This puts Washington (41-3 losers to LSU) at a more reasonable #16, with Stanford and USC following. You might notice that the AP has them ranked all ass-over-tea-kettle wrong, with USC at #13, Stanford #18, and Washington #23. The coaches are similar except USC is #12 and Washington isn't ranked.

UCLA took care of Colorado as expected, 42-14, and moves up 5 spots to #19, aided by the return to the top 25 of victim Nebraska. The Cornhuskers beat Wisconsin 30-27 and re-enter at #20, just 5 spots lower than where they began the season. The AP has this wrong, too, with UCLA four spots lower than Nebraska, and the Bruins aren't ranked by the coaches. Undefeated TCU beat SMU 24-16 and moves to #21; Clemson also moves up 2 spots to #23 after beating Boston College 45-31. In between, Utah State holds at #22; the Aggies beat UNLV 35-13 to go 4-1, but their loss to Wisconsin is now a loss to a non-top 25 team, the only one in our rankings.

All four teams from #18 to #21 dropped out after suffering their 2nd loss. Michigan State was #25 in our inaugural rankings and nearly beat Ohio State; Arizona was unranked pre-season and fell to Oregon State; Oklahoma State was #10 to start the year but couldn't get past Texas; and Wisconsin is the worst fall of all, from #9 pre-season. All of these teams will have ample opportunity to re-enter the rankings due to the conferences in which they play.

In addition to Washington and Nebraska, Rutgers and Texas Tech, both 4-0, debut in the rankings at #24 and #25. This means that per conference the net change was -1 for the Big Ten and +1 for the Big East. Rutgers was idle while Texas Tech topped formerly undefeated Iowa State 24-13. There are still six undefeated teams than remain unranked: Cincinnati (3-0) and Louisville (5-0) from the Big East; Ohio (5-0) from the MAC; Mississippi State (4-0) from the SEC; and Texas-San Antonio (5-0) and Louisiana Tech (4-0) from the WAC.

Next weekend there are 6 intra-top-25 games:

• #2 LSU takes on #13 Florida
• #4 Oregon hosts #16 Washington
• #5 Texas hosts #12 West Virginia
• #6 Georgia travels to #7 South Carolina
• #11 Ohio State plays #20 Nebraska
• #15 Oklahoma faces #25 Texas Tech