Only two teams can make the BCS championship game, since the playoff doesn't arrive for a few more years. As of the games of October 20, 2012, there are still eleven undefeated teams in college football: Alabama, Florida, Kansas State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Rutgers, Louisville, Ohio, and Ohio State.
Only seven can finish the season undefeated. Alabama, Florida, and Mississippi State are all on a collision course from which only one will emerge. Oregon and Oregon State play each other, as do Rutgers and Louisville.
If seven teams were to finish undefeated, only four would have a shot at making the BCS championship game. Ohio State is ineligible; the Rutgers/Louisville winner would go to a BCS bowl but not the championship game; and Ohio would be fighting for a BCS bowl bid at all.
So in a multiple-undefeated-team scenario, the following are viable BCS championship contenders:
- Alabama, Florida, or Mississippi State
- Oregon or Oregon State
- Kansas State
- Notre Dame
Having 3+ viable undefeated BCS championship candidates isn't unprecedented, and 2004 is the most obvious example. That year USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn finished undefeated and #1, 2, and 3 in the final BCS standings. Two other teams, Utah and Boise State, were also undefeated and finished #6 and #9.
So what happens this year if there are four undefeated teams? Who has the edge in making that top two spots, and who could be left out? Here we make a few projections.
Note that in making these projections, we also are making assumptions for every other game that is to be played, so changing the results of other teams can have an effect. We'll look at some of those possibilities, too.
Scenario 1: Alabama, Oregon, Kansas State, and Notre Dame go undefeated
1. Alabama 13-0 192.05
2. Notre Dame 12-0 164.43
3. Oregon 13-0 156.73
4. Kansas St 12-0 119.65
Analysis: If Alabama is undefeated they'll retain the top spot in the polls pretty easily, while the #2 through #4 would be pretty tightly packed. The computers will favor the Tide, too, making Alabama #1 by a pretty wide margin.
The number that follows each team is a computation we've included to suggest how far apart the teams are spaced. Notre Dame and Oregon are pretty close but the computers favor the Irish. It's close enough that "style points" could decide things via the human pollsters.
The reason Notre Dame has an advantage is that they play both Oklahoma and USC, and beating those teams diminishes the best wins for both Oregon and Kansas State. The Wildcats won't have many foes left that are highly-ranked in the BCS as the Big Twelve teams will whittle one another's ranking down quite a bit.
Scenario 2: Florida, Oregon, Kansas State, Notre Dame
1. Florida 13-0 237.15
2. Notre Dame 12-0 168.61
3. Oregon 13-0 162.42
4. Kansas St 12-0 122.00
If Florida wins out instead of Alabama, the Gators are an even more certain number one. That's because they'd play every team Alabama would, plus Florida State, making them #1 in every computer ranking and just as dominant in the polls. The rest of the field would be unaffected.
Scenario 3: Mississippi State, Oregon, Kansas State, Notre Dame
1. Notre Dame 12-0 161.97
2. Mississippi St 13-0 155.99
3. Oregon 13-0 155.02
4. Kansas St 12-0 118.37
The Bulldogs are the only undefeated SEC team that might miss making the top two. It would be a tossup between they and the Ducks, and style points would mean everything. They would have to beat Alabama, LSU, and Florida/Georgia, but it would come down to how those other teams did. If Alabama and Florida's only loss is to Mississippi State, then the Bulldogs will get in. If those teams lose other games, then it comes down to style points. Mississippi State is starting from a lower current position in the polls, so they'd have some trouble getting up to Oregon's level. This is the most uncertain scenario.
Scenario 4: Oregon State is undefeated instead of Oregon
1. Alabama 13-0 193.63
2. Notre Dame 12-0 165.92
3. Oregon St *12-0 155.86
4. Kansas St 12-0 121.52
If Oregon State cleans the table instead of Oregon (*note that their game with Nicholls State would be cancelled) the results are pretty much the same as before, but with the Beavers replacing the Ducks: Alabama and Notre Dame are #1 and #2. With Florida instead of Alabama, Florida and Notre Dame are #1 and #2. With Mississippi State undefeated, it's again Notre Dame #1, with Mississippi State and Oregon State in a virtual tie.
The one way things change for the Pac-12 teams is if they are both undefeated except for their head-to-head matchup. If that happens, then it's Alabama vs. the Pac-12 champion for the title:
1. Alabama 13-0 195.20
2. Oregon 13-0 161.66
3. Notre Dame 12-0 155.74
4. Kansas St 12-0 122.49
Oregon State is a bit tighter with Notre Dame in that outcome, but still ahead at #2. And if it's Mississippi State from the SEC, then Oregon/Oregon State comes out #1, with Notre Dame #2
1. Oregon St 12-0 156.36
2. Notre Dame 12-0 153.37
3. Mississippi St 13-0 150.02
4. Kansas St 12-0 121.06
That result is a virtual tie among the computers and probably the pollsters too, and would then depend on style points and the results of other games. In the same scenario but with Oregon undefeated, the Ducks would have an easier time due to the polls.
Scenario 5: Notre Dame holds the cards for Kansas State, Oregon
In all of these scenarios Kansas State gets left out even at 12-0. As mentioned, their problem is they've already beaten their best opponent (Oklahoma) and no opponent can finish with less than 2 losses, and even that seem unlikely in the Big Twelve. But if Oklahoma beats Notre Dame, suddenly Kansas State is a lot more viable:
1. Alabama 13-0 188.37
2. Kansas St 12-0 155.40
3. Oregon 13-0 153.51
4. Oklahoma 11-1 110.48
That result, of course, knocks Notre Dame out of the running which gives the Wildcats a 1-spot jump automatically, and with Oklahoma's added value with the computers the Wildcats could win a tight battle with Oregon for the #2 spot.
Of course, Notre Dame can also help out Oregon—even more—by losing to USC. Since Oregon probably plays USC twice, it's more imperative that the Trojans win that game; it could vault Oregon to the top spot.
1. Oregon 13-0 202.80
2. Alabama 13-0 185.14
3. Kansas St 12-0 115.70
4. Notre Dame 11-1 101.54
In Summary
- Things look very good for any undefeated SEC team, with Alabama and Florida basically locks. Mississippi State is questionable to finish #2 among four undefeated teams, but odds are probably with them.
- Notre Dame is in great shape to finish #2 under most scenarios. They'd need a lot of luck to finish #1, and a bit of back luck to finish #3, as far as the computers go. If they keep winning tight, though, the pollsters might favor Oregon enough to keep the Irish down a spot in the composite.
- Oregon is a close #3 in most 4-team outcomes. But not very much would have to change for them to make it to #2, and the human pollsters might make it happen anyway. To boost their computer ranking they need Oregon State and USC to do well. Oregon State is in basically the same boat as Oregon, with less chance for help from the pollsters.
- Kansas State is odd man out among the 4. They need to keep winning style points from the pollsters and, quite frankly, hope the other teams lose. Oklahoma could help them A LOT this weekend.
- The polls are the wild card: No one knows exactly how the teams will rank under these scenarios. We can assume it would be pretty tight among the top four, especially from #2 to #4, in pretty much every scenario. Oregon and Kansas State, in particular, need style points, as the SEC winner and Notre Dame will have a great computer score if undefeated.
- The computer rankings can shift a lot based on "other" games: Basically each team wants its "best victims" to win as much as possible. Oregon's fate changes a lot depending on whether Oregon State has 1 loss or 3 losses. Texas Tech finishing with 2 losses each would be great for Kansas State.
Games that matter the most this week:
- Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma: If Notre Dame loses, they're of course eliminated from any undefeated team scenario. But if they win, it makes things very difficult for Kansas State. To the Wildcats, Notre Dame beating Oklahoma is like Obama winning Ohio is for Mitt Romney: everything else would have to work out perfectly.
- Alabama vs. Mississippi State: This is, of course, an elimination game for the undefeated-teams scenario.
- Florida vs. Georgia: This game probably determines who wins the SEC East. For Mississippi State, a Florida win is a big help as they really want an undefeated Gator team to face them in the SEC final. Alabama doesn't have to worry about who wins this one. And needless to say, Florida's chances of being undefeated take a huge hit if they lose to Georgia.
- Kansas State vs. Texas Tech: This game underscores Kansas State's problem. Texas Tech already has a loss and will have at least two if K-State is unbeaten. Oklahoma State, TCU, and Texas have 2 losses and will have 3 if K-State goes unbeaten. That leaves just Oklahoma (with a loss to Notre Dame), Texas Tech, and West Virginia with 2 losses. But those six teams have some interplay left, leading to more losses. You can see how the Big Twelve is set up to grind themselves down so that Kansas State's wins aren't as impressive to the computers. Part of this is due to the fact that every team plays every other team in the conference. Playing nine conference games means more guaranteed losses than it does for the SEC teams, who play eight. Pac-12 teams play nine conference games too, but some teams avoid each other so there's a better chance of a few more low-loss teams. Add to that the fact that there is no conference championship game in the Big 12 anymore, denying them a last chance to boost their ranking. In short, Kansas State is screwed by circumstance in any four-team undefeated scenario, so they have to depend on style points. Winning big can help them in the polls, and the polls can overpower the computer rankings. The Wildcats need to beat Texas Tech big in case Notre Dame beats Oklahoma.
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