2012 Final BCS Standings Projection—post-Week 8

This is the Week 8 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.

Once again the bowl projections remain the same and this time the entire top ten is the same as last week's projection. The only team that drops out is North Carolina, which existed as a "ghost" like Ohio State since they're not eligible for post-season. Plus, a few teams that weren't in last week's actual BCS rankings—but were in our projection (Michigan and Wisconsin)—have joined the BCS standings, so things are lining up as we predicted. But in the next few weeks there are sure to be some big deviations from our projection, since there are games of major importance coming up and by now, our pre-season picks are picking a lot of "upsets" that probably won't occur. It does, however, mirror the general chaos that tends to occur in the last several weeks of the season.

This week we add a new column: the "Win Out Rank" column which estimates where each team would end up if they won out. These are to be taken one-at-a-time, that is, for each team the ranking is where that team would be if they win out and everything else stays the same. That's how you can get seven instances of teams reaching the #1 spot.

SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 8 (Oct. 20) results included

Previous Projection Finish	Projected 12/02/12 Finish	Team	Projected 12/02/12 Record	Current Record	Current BCS Rank	Win Out Rank	Projected BCS Bowl
1	1	Southern Cal	12-1	6-1	9	1	BCS Title
2	2	Oklahoma	11-1	5-1	8	2	BCS Title
3	3	LSU	12-1	7-1	6	3	Sugar
4	4	Florida St	12-1	7-1	12	4	Orange
5	5	Alabama	11-1	7-0	1	1	Orange
6	6	Rutgers	12-0	7-0	15	6	Sugar
7	7	Florida	10-2	7-0	2	1
8	8	Oregon	11-2	7-0	4	1	Rose
9	9	Notre Dame	10-2	7-0	5	1	Fiesta
10	10	Stanford	9-3	5-2	17	4
12	11	Texas	10-2	5-2	23	11	Fiesta
16	12	Kansas St	9-3	7-0	3	1
11	13	Michigan	11-2	5-2	22	13	Rose
13	14	Georgia	11-2	6-1	10	4
14	15	Clemson	11-1	6-1	18	15
15	16	Oklahoma St	9-3	4-2	--	8
17	17	South Carolina	9-3	6-2	13	11
[20]	[18]	Ohio State	10-2	8-0	[NA]	[NA]
18	18	Boise St	11-1	6-1	21	18
21	19	Texas A&M	9-3	5-2	20	14
20	20	Louisiana Tech	11-1	6-1	--	20
24	21	Oregon St	9-3	6-0	7	1
22	22	Wisconsin	10-3	6-2	25	15
25	23	Louisville	11-1	7-0	16	9
23	24	Nebraska	9-3	5-2	--	13
19	25	West Virginia	8-4	5-2	19	9

Dropped out: [25] North Carolina

Since all our top teams have a projected loss—and our top four have an actual loss already—if any of Alabama, Florida, Oregon, Notre Dame, Kansas State, or Oregon State win out to go undefeated, they're in the driver's seat at #1. If more than three do, it's yet another BCS scandal; at most there could be four major undefeated teams. Either Rutgers and Louisville can be undefeated, too, but neither will reach the top two. The Cardinals only bumped up a couple of spots for beating USF and are now projecting at 11-1.

Since we're picking almost all of the currently undefeated teams to end up with 2 or more losses, most finish well outside of the BCS title game. But each time they defy our picks—as Kansas State did in dramatic fashion by beating West Virginia—they move up. The Wildcats are now projected to finish #12, and just behind Texas who gets into the Fiesta Bowl. Looked at another way, Kansas State's near-worst-case outcome (3 more losses) and Texas' best-case scenario (5 wins) puts the Longhorns only one spot ahead of the Wildcats. Any deviation from that and K-State is in the Fiesta Bowl, or better; they project at #1 at 12-0, and at 11-1 they probably displace Oklahoma for the #2 spot.

There were very few other changes. Michigan dropped a few spots, somewhat for their near-loss to Michigan State, but more for Penn State's win over Iowa. The Wolverines don't play the Lions but they play Iowa, and that result weakened their schedule a bit. It boosted Ohio State's, so the Buckeyes move up to a virtual #18.

Texas A&M moved up two spots even as they lost to LSU. They kept it close, and SMU beat Houston to boost their schedule strength. The Aggies have lost only to Florida and LSU, but even if they win out their upside is limited as they play two FCS teams this season.

Missing Teams: Current BCS #11 Mississippi State, #14 Texas Tech, #24 Ohio

The Bulldogs aren't in our projection for the final BCS due mainly to their next three games: Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU. If they manage to win even one of those they'll probably make it. Texas Tech is already just outside the projected final top 25, but they have a rough road ahead, too: Kansas State, then Texas and Oklahoma State among their last five games. One upset and they'll be in, too. Ohio already is projected to have just one loss, but it keeps them out of the MAC title game. Beat Miami of Ohio this coming weekend and the Bobcats will project to 13-0. It also helps them that Penn State is doing so well lately. They're not getting a lot of style points—i.e., they're beating some pretty bad teams by narrow margins—which probably puts a lid on their progress in the human polls, below BCS at-large level.

Key Games Next Weekend

There are some huge games next weekend, involving the current #1, 2, 3, and 5 BCS teams. Of course these our only our #5, 7, 12, and 9, but all four are undefeated and control their destiny to some extent or another for the BCS title game.

• #2 Oklahoma vs. #9 Notre Dame: If the Irish win this one, not only does it knock the Sooners out of the BCS title game, it eliminates them. And Notre Dame suddenly becomes a very real BCS title game contender, not just a spoiler. An Oklahoma win is one of the things we project will propel the Sooners back toward the very top of the rankings.
• #5 Alabama vs. Mississippi State. We covered the Bulldogs' enigma above: undefeated but unloved by our projection. This is one of the reasons. Mississippi State has had it easy so far and this should be a rude awakening. If they get the upset, however, Alabama is knocked from the top of the current rankings, and possibly out of a BCS bowl in our projections. Mississippi State would jump well into the top ten of the current standings but we would still project further losses and no BCS bowl for the Bulldogs. Beating Alabama would be just the start of what they have to do to get there.
• #7 Florida vs. #14 Georgia: The fourth ranked team in a row that the Gators are playing, Georgia is still our favorite to win the SEC East. Florida can take over that spot, though it wouldn't help them much in our projection because they'd inherit Georgia's projected loss in the SEC title game! So the Bulldogs wouldn't fall very much by losing this one, either.
• #12 Kansas State vs. Texas Tech: Again, Texas Tech isn't in our current projection because of games like this one, which we originally predicted the Wildcats will win. If the Red Raiders win, they'll be in the top 25 but not a very high level, and the Wildcats would regress a few spots lower. In current BCS terms, a Wildcats win won't push them any higher, but a Texas Tech win could move the Red Raiders into the top ten, with Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Tech all having one loss, but Oklahoma having the rankings edge if they beat Notre Dame.
• #13 Michigan vs. #24 Nebraska: An important game in the Big Ten Legends division, and therefore in the Rose Bowl race. We have the Wolverines winning, and if the Cornhuskers pull off the upset it would be good news for any BCS busters as it would drop the winning Big Ten team pretty low in the final rankings. But Boise State and Louisiana Tech don't look like they'll finish in the top 16 anyway. We'll see what Ohio U. does next week as they could be in that picture.